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Pointwise Red Sheet
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CINCINNATI 48 - South Florida 24 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 11, and is now minus
11½. No question that Bearcats have shaken their early-to-mid-season doldrums, in which
they lost 4 straight to the pts, as well as 3-of-4 outright, all as the chalk, including a total
bottom-outer in loss to an Army team which entered on a 0-19 run. That proved to be the
ultimate wakeup call for Cincy, which has won & covered all 3 since, averaging 207 RYs &
215 PYs, behind the senior leadership of QB Guidugli (21 TD passes). And in those 3
games, the 'Cats are plus 82 pts ATS. The Bulls have cranked up their overland game, with
Hall all that was advertised, but have been stung for >40 pts on 3 occasions so far. Win
clinches bowl eligibility for Cats, who lost in heartbreaking style to SFla in '03.
RATING: CINCINNATI 89
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 34 - Southern Mississippi 24 - (3:00) -- Line opened at pick-'em, and is still pick-'em.
We mentioned the revenge factor at the end of the above writeup, but it pales in comparison
to the avenging mood of these Frogs. A year ago, the Frogs entered this fray with a perfect
10-0 slate, a 10th ranking in the polls, & the 8th spot in the BCS rankings. But it wasn't to
be, as the Eagles took full advantage of 4 Tcu turnovers, & a long punt return for a 31-6 lead
in the 4th. Frogs got to within 31-28, but eventually lost 40-28. They need this to keep bowl
hopes alive, & are averaging 42.5 pts at home. Eagles aren't up to their normal defensive
standards, & have dropped 3 of their last 4 games. Frogs are still alive.
RATING: TCU 89
FRESNO STATE 57 - Nevada-Reno 20 - (9:00) -- Line opened at Fresno St minus 23, and is now minus
23½. This one is a carryover of the week's Top Play on Pointwise. The Bulldogs, much like
Cincinnati above, went into a swoon from weeks 4 thru 7, & in the process turning a 3-0
start, which included upsets of 19 & 24 pts SU (21 & 35½ pt ******), into a 3-3 log, which
coincidentally included being upset twice: ATS losses of 22 & 20½ pts. But Fresno has
turned it around again, with 3 straight wins, including ****** of 14½, 24, & 35 pts. And they
are in off a school-record 503 RYs. Contrast that to Reno's utter road futility: 38, 48, 48, 38
pt defensive efforts in 4-of-5 guesters. Host is 11-0 ATS in Nevada games.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 88
Iowa State 31 - KANSAS STATE 30 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Kansas St minus 11½, and is now minus 11.
All she wrote for the Wildcats, who have said goodbye to their 11-year bowl run. In those
previous successful seasons, they were normally in possession of one of the more rockribbed
defenses in the nation. A year ago, for example KSt ranked 6th, 17th, 7th, & 8th in
total, rushing, passing, & scoring defense. This season, the 'Cats rank 42nd, 58th, 39th, &
an amazing 86th in those same categories. And to top it off, their shot at winning season
ended on a 64-yd Colorado pass in the final 0:05 last week. Cyclones amazingly are 2 wins
away from slot in Big 12 title match, with QB Meyers on fire. Why not? Upset!
RATING: IOWA STATE 88
Tennessee 27 - VANDERBILT 6 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 13, and is now minus 12½.
There was a time when the Commodores were a great play in this match. Those were the
days in which a bowl was a legitimate prize, rather than a simple extension of the season.
The rule-of-thumb was simple: if the Vols had received & accepted a bowl bid, they had little
incentive in this one, thereby providing a "go-with" situation for Vanderbilt. Conversely, if
the Vols were without a bowl invite, they were firmly focused in taking out their frustrations
on Vandy, & usually did. Now, however, UT simply owns it, allowing the 'Dores to top 10 pts
just 1 of their last 9 meetings. Vandy is strictly a pretender. Lay it!
RATING: TENNESSEE 88
San Diego 27 - OAKLAND 17 - (4:05) -- Line opened at San Diego minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As we
stated on Pointwise, the Chargers hardly needed their bye week, as they have been among
the hottest squads in the NFL, winning 5 of their last 6 games on the field, with their only
miss by a single pt at Atlanta. And they've been perfect over that span, in the all-important
battle with the spread, covering all 6, by an average of >15½ pts. Brees has turned the
doubters into backers this season, with his 66.1 completion percentage, as well as his 18/3
TD/INT ratio. Tomlinson is healthier by the week, while McCardell just adds another element
to that offense. Try a 32-15 FD edge in first meeting with Oakland.
RATING: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Ga Tech, UConn, Michigan, Tulsa -- NFL: Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City
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