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By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
While Georgia vs. Auburn is the marquee, must-watch game, we're looking
elsewhere for this week's best opportunities. We found four, including Oklahoma,
which may not let up on poor Nebraska until reaching triple digits. Our other
three best bets – UTEP, Ball State and Tulane – all have one thing in common: A
talent for overachieving at home.
Friday
Memphis -6 over S. Mississippi: That was some great offensive performance we saw
the Memphis Tigers put out against Louisville and some awful showing Southern
Miss had against Cincinnati. Odds are Memphis won't look that good this week and
Southern Miss won't look that bad. But they won't, necessarily, meet in the
middle. Even the Tigers on an off week seem to be good enough to handle this
so-so Golden Eagles squad. The latter has no answer for the two-pronged attack
of QB Danny Wimprine and RB DeAngelo Williams.
And Southern Miss' feeble offense has no chance once it gets behind by a few TDs
on the road. Last week, the Eagles fell behind 31-10 and couldn't cope. They
also are very banged up, losing both starting corner backs and are working on a
short week.
The pick: Memphis.
Saturday
Indiana +3½ vs. Penn State: Indiana has played better than expected this year,
winning at Oregon and upsetting Minnesota. The Hoosiers also lost a heartbreaker
last week to Illinois, lost in double OT at Northwestern and played Michigan
State tough. Penn State, on the other hand, just can't win, and it has become
contagious. The Lions have lost 13 of their last 14 road games, with their only
victory coming in this spot two years ago. They've also lost 13 of their last 14
Big Ten games. It seemed that if they ever were going to win one, it would have
been at home last week, but they simply have no offense to speak of.
That's something Indiana has shown plenty of, provided QB Matt LoVecchio can
play. He received a head injury late in the Illinois loss after completing 15 of
17 attempts and had to come out. He has practiced this week, however, and is
scheduled to start. Regardless, Inidiana will have incentive, having been blown
out by Penn State the last two years and still looking for their first win in
the series.
The pick: Indiana, provided LoVechhio plays for the Hoosiers.
Georgia +4 at Auburn: This game is too close to call. While Auburn has a great
running game and a sneaky good defense, the Tigers haven't faced a quality
opponent since Tennessee on Oct. 2. Georgia might be the visitor, but the Dawgs
are probably the best road team in the country the last two years. Quarterback
David Greene has excelled in these big games, while Auburn's QB, Jason Campbell,
seems to be coming on strong. The SEC and possibly a BCS title game berth could
be riding on it for Auburn, whom we think has the most pressure in this
situation.
The pick: Pass, although Georgia and the points look tempting.
Texas -22 over Kansas: You gotta love the Jayhawks. They have improved the most
and came thisclose to winning the Big 12 North. But injuries at quarterback have
killed them. Going into last week's game against Colorado, the Jayhawks had lost
four games by a total of 16 points; they led the Buffs 14-0 before their third
QB of the year was lost to injury. Senior walk-on John Nielsen filled in – and
is expected to start this week – but was completely ineffective. If he couldn't
move the ball against Colorado, what's he going to do against a Texas defense
that completely shut down Oklahoma State in the second half last week? You might
expect Texas to ease off after that victory, but now that they're in the BCS top
six, don't look for any let up.
The pick: Texas.
Wyoming +23 over Utah: It might seem like suicide picking against Utah, but
there's a method to the madness. Yes, Utah has blown everybody out and is
driving for a BCS berth. Yes, Urban Meyer has conceded that running up the score
is the only way to impress voters. But, we wonder if the Utes are totally
focused on Wyoming. They certainly are looking ahead to playing BYU next week,
as most experts have pegged the Cougars as the only team that could possibly
stop Utah. Plus, last year's game had Utah winning at BYU, 3-0. Utah also has to
be somewhat depressed about being passed over for the coveted No. 6 spot in the
BCS standings.
Wyoming (6-3) is bowl eligible and is undefeated at home (5-0). The Cowboys also
have been lighting up the board lately, with either Corey Bramlet or J.J.
Raterink at quarterback. While Utah may be distracted, this is Wyoming's biggest
game of the year.
The pick: Wyoming.
Oklahoma -30 over Nebraska: Label this one "Bo's revenge," after Oklahoma
defensive coordinator Bo Pellini. Pellini, you may remember, was Nebraska's
coach at the end of last season after the firing of Frank Solich and led the
Cornhuskers to an impressive bowl victory. Pellini wanted the job but was
rejected. Now he gets his revenge.
If you expected the Sooners to relax after two tough road wins, forget it. Coach
Bob Stoops knows with a weak schedule remaining the only way he can impress
voters is with blowout victories. Don't be surprised if the Sooners' first team
is still in with a seven-touchdown lead. Nebraska seems like the perfect guest,
in this case. Their defense is getting worse each week, and they have a
quarterback who can't run their West Coast offense.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet). This may make Texas Tech's 70-10 whipping look
kind.
Virginia -3½ over Miami: These are two teams heading in different directions.
Miami's offensive line has lost two starters and didn't have great depth to
begin with. Their running game has nearly evaporated. Their defense has, too,
getting pounded by N.C. State and North Carolina, back to back. The Hurricanes
may be wishing right now they were back in the Big East.
Other than a whipping at Florida State, Virginia has looked terrific this year.
Their defense is superb, and their quarterback, Marques Hagans, has NFL
potential thanks to his great speed. He also might not have Miami's great DB,
Antrel Rolle, to contend with. Rolle is "questionable" with turf toe, a very
painful injury. If Virginia wins out, it could capture the ACC's BCS spot. We
expect that the Cavs will handle Miami.
The pick: Virginia.
Bowling Green -10 over Marshall: The Bowling Green Falcons are marching to a
different tune lately, winning their last six by an average of 35 points. A
victory here puts them in the MAC title game. Marshall, which had one of the
best defenses in the league, fell apart last week at Akron, blowing a big lead.
Judging by the what their coach and players are saying this week, it's a loss
they won't recover from for a long time.
The pick: Bowling Green.
Ball State -3½ over Central Florida: Ball State, which leads the country in
fewest turnovers, has played extremely well at home, losing to Boston College
19-11, blowing out Western Michigan and losing an overtime thriller to league
power Northern Illinois two weeks ago. The Cardinals have had two weeks to get
over that tough loss and work with new QB Joey Lynch, who got his first start
against Northern Illinois and went 31 of 48 for 244 yards with two touchdowns
and no interceptions.
UCF, on the other hand, lost a heartbreaker at home Saturday via a missed extra
point, and that may have been its last chance to get a victory this year. The
team has to be depressed, and its offense resembles Penn State's. On top of
that, new starting QB Kyle Israel is out (ankle) and being replaced by the old
starter, Steven Moffett; the team's second leading tackler, CB Travonti Johnson,
is also out.
The pick: Ball State (best bet).
UTEP -16½ over Rice: The Miners are the most-improved team in college football
and are headed for a bowl. They have a spectacular passing game and an inspired
defense. Their three road victories – at Fresno State, Louisiana Tech and San
Diego State – were extremely impressive. Other than an early 42-35 loss to
Boise, UTEP has had only one home game against a WAC opponent, beating Hawaii
handily. They'd probably beat Boise State if they played them now, as well. This
week's opponent is one-dimensional Rice, which is last in the nation in passing.
The Owls were plastered 52-14 at home last week by Fresno State and have dropped
five in a row on the road. UTEP is also expecting its first sellout in four
years.
The pick: UTEP, easily (best bet).
Tulane -6 over Army: Get used to it. Tulane is a juggernaut at home! Last week
they blew out Navy as a 12-point underdog, and we can't see why they won't do it
again against Army. The only thing the Black Knights have going for them is they
won't get caught off guard like the Midshipmen did. But Navy should have known
better after Green Wave QB Lester Ricard put 59 points up in beating UAB. Last
week Ricard was an amazing 18 of 19 passing for 323 yards and four touchdowns.
Army has nothing it can throw at that kind of offense, and while it can score,
it won't score fast enough to keep up. Also, Army's talented fullback Tielor
Robinson is doubtful (knee).
The pick: Tulane (best bet).
Passing thoughts
Clemson is in the sandwich at Duke. They're still celebrating last week's
victory over Miami, and they're peeking ahead to next week's game against hated
in-state rival South Carolina. Nobody takes Duke seriously, except the Blue
Devils nearly won at Wake Forest two weeks ago and played respectably at FSU
last Saturday. Had Duke not lost top defensive player and tackle leader, CB Ken
Stanford, to injury this week, Duke would have been one of our picks.
West Virginia should handle Boston College thanks to a big advantage in team
speed, but the Eagles have been very tough on the road this year.
Wisconsin may be walking into a trap at Michigan State, just like Minnesota did
a few weeks ago. And there's a chance Drew Stanton will be back at quarterback
after practicing this week. The Badgers might be overconfident at this point.
They may be in a sandwich themselves, still reading the press about their
domination of Minnesota, while thinking about ending the season undefeated at
Iowa next week.
Kansas State and Colorado are both still alive in the Big 12 North, but both
have key injuries for the game this week.
Is BYU looking ahead to next week's match up with Utah, instead of concentrating
on hard-running New Mexico?
Alabama should give LSU all it wants thanks to a tough defense and a punishing
ground game. If the Tide can muster a few compete passes, they could pull off an
upset.
Double-Digit Home 'Dogs had another big week last week, going 6-2 and are now
40-15 since Oct. 1. The reason we don't chart September DDHDs is because the
season needs a month for the lines to get out of whack. This week's DDHDs are:
Duke, Western Michigan, Wyoming, Kansas, Washington and San Jose State. -
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