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NCAA Football - Saturday 11/13
I pushed on the FSU / NC State game last night, and I don't like either of the Friday night matchups. These are my plays for Saturday.....
5 STAR: BALL STATE (-3) OVER Central Florida
These two teams have combined for one win this season and that was Ball State's 41-14 home win over Western Michigan. I look for the Cardinals to pick up their second win of the season here against a terrible Central Florida team. Even though they are only 1-8, Ball State plays pretty well at home, and they nearly knocked off Northern Illinois in their last game, losing by a touchdown in overtime. Ball State has had to weeks to get ready for this game and they should be licking their chops in anticipation of their second win of the season. The Knights are only 1-4 against the spread on the road this season, while the Cardinals are 3-1 against the number at home this year. Lay the points here!
5 STAR: Central Michigan (-5) OVER BUFFALO
Central Michigan is only 3-6 on the season, but I look for them to win big against a Buffalo team that is one of the worst in the nation. The Central Michigan passing game has picked it up in the past three games. During that span, quarterback Kent Smith has completed 64 percent of his passes for 909 yards and eight touchdowns. The Chippweas' offense exploded for 58 points in a four overtime loss last week to Eastern Michigan and I look for them to keep rolling here against a Buffalo defense that ranks #105th in points allowed at over 35 a game. The Buffalo offense that ranks 108th in scoring offense will not be able to match scores with Central Michigan. Central Michigan is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as a road favorite. I'll lay the small number here!
5 STAR: Marshall (+10) OVER BOWLING GREEN
Too many points here. Marshall collapsed last Friday night against Akron to blow a 4th quarter lead to the Zips, but I look for the Herd to bounce back here. This one should be a tight game. Marshall has one of the best defensive units in Division one and they should be able to slow down the potent Bowling Green offense. Marshall is 7-0 against the spread after a conference loss and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog. Bowling Green is only 3-6 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record and Marshall has won four out of the last five meetings between these teams. I'll take the points here!
3 STAR: Eastern Michigan (+12) OVER KENT STATE
Looks like too many points here also. Eastern Michigan has one of the worst defenses in division one, but its not like Kent State has a shut down defense themselves. The EM Eagles have a high powered offense that ranks 16th in the nation in total offense and they come into this game rolling. Eastern Michigan's passing attack was in high gear during a 61-58 win over Central Michigan last week as Eagles quarterback Matt Bohnet threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns. That offense should keep right on rolling in this game and at least keep Eastern Michigan within the number. This is also another series that has been pretty one sided as of late with Eastern Michigan beating Kent State in five out of the last six meetings. The Golden Flashes have not found themselves in the roll of a favorite very often, and they have not done well in that roll, posting a 2-4 record against the spread in their last six games as a favorite. I'll take the points here!
2 STAR: OHIO (Pick) OVER Akron
Interesting line here, as we have 4-6 Ohio instilled as a one point favorite over a 5-4 Akron team that is coming off of a huge National TV win over Marshall last week. I think this is a tough spot for Akron. This is a sandwich game between the win over Marshall and their big match up next week with Miami Ohio. I think the Zips are ripe for the upset, even though its not an upset to the lines makers. Ohio is coming off of a nice overtime win at Central Florida and this is their final game of the season, with no chance at a MAC championship, they will play loose and look to kill any shot that Akron has at a MAC title. Akron is only 4-7 against the spread after a conference win. I'll take the Bobcats here!
2 STAR: INDIANA (+3.5) OVER Penn State
Penn State has not won a Big 10 road game since the last time they won at Indiana two years ago. PSU has pretty much owned the Hoosiers, spanking them last season 52-7 at Happy Valley and winning at Indiana two years ago 58-25, but I think Indiana has closed the gap considerably since then. The Hoosiers have show that they have the ability to play with the big boys, as their wins over Oregon and Minnesota this season suggest, and I think they can pull off the upset here. Asking Penn State to lay points on the road is a tough thing to do. Their quarterbacks Mills and Robinson are terrible. When Robinson is not playing QB he is in at wide out and he sucks at that position as well. The PSU offense has only generated 40 points in the last seven games, thats not even six points per game! I know that Indiana defense is not great, but I just don't see PSU lighting up the scoreboard. Penn State's defense will have to keep them in the game, and even though they are a very good unit, I still see Indiana putting some points on the board here. They will really be calling for Joe Pa's job if they lose here. I'll take the points!
2 STAR: WYOMING (+23) OVER Utah
Utah is still undefeated and they are 8-1 against the spread this season, but they are no longer an "under the radar" team, so there is no longer any value in the line to play on Utah. In fact, the lines are being more inflated every week for the Utah games. As soon as the opening line comes out, the public starts to ****** the Utes, and they have been winning by doing so, but I think that ends this week. I think this is a very dangerous game for the Utes and their final road block to an undefeated season. But I think laying more than three touchdowns here is way too much. Wyoming is undefeated at home this year, and they average almost 37 points per game in those home games. The Utah offense is fantastic, they are second in the nation in scoring, but their defense has been leaky at times this year and Wyoming is good enough to make this one close. I'll take the big points here with the home dog that's 5-2 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record!
2 STAR: Texas Tech (+2.5) OVER TEXAS A&M
The Aggies pulled out all the stops against OU last week and they played the Sooners very tough at College Station like they always do. But this week is a different story, the Red Raiders have had the better of this series with A&M, especially against the number and that is what we care about. Texas Tech is 10-2 against the spread in the last 12 meetings with the Aggies and they have won the last two meetings at Kyle Field straight up. I don't think the Aggie's secondary can cover all of the Tech receivers. The Aggie pass defense was said to be much improved this season, but against a good passing attack of Oklahoma the Aggies allowed Jason White to throw for almost 300 yards and 5 touchdowns. Now the reeling A&M pass defense gets to play Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are number one in the nation in passing throwing 411 yards per game. Texas Tech is 9-2 against the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or less and I like them here in this spot. Take the points!
2004 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 9-7 (+10.65 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 18-15-2 (+3.90 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 20-20-1 (-2.20 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 13-10 (+3.10 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 60-52-3 (+14.35 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1435.00
5 STAR: BALL STATE (-3) OVER Central Florida
These two teams have combined for one win this season and that was Ball State's 41-14 home win over Western Michigan. I look for the Cardinals to pick up their second win of the season here against a terrible Central Florida team. Even though they are only 1-8, Ball State plays pretty well at home, and they nearly knocked off Northern Illinois in their last game, losing by a touchdown in overtime. Ball State has had to weeks to get ready for this game and they should be licking their chops in anticipation of their second win of the season. The Knights are only 1-4 against the spread on the road this season, while the Cardinals are 3-1 against the number at home this year. Lay the points here!
5 STAR: Central Michigan (-5) OVER BUFFALO
Central Michigan is only 3-6 on the season, but I look for them to win big against a Buffalo team that is one of the worst in the nation. The Central Michigan passing game has picked it up in the past three games. During that span, quarterback Kent Smith has completed 64 percent of his passes for 909 yards and eight touchdowns. The Chippweas' offense exploded for 58 points in a four overtime loss last week to Eastern Michigan and I look for them to keep rolling here against a Buffalo defense that ranks #105th in points allowed at over 35 a game. The Buffalo offense that ranks 108th in scoring offense will not be able to match scores with Central Michigan. Central Michigan is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as a road favorite. I'll lay the small number here!
5 STAR: Marshall (+10) OVER BOWLING GREEN
Too many points here. Marshall collapsed last Friday night against Akron to blow a 4th quarter lead to the Zips, but I look for the Herd to bounce back here. This one should be a tight game. Marshall has one of the best defensive units in Division one and they should be able to slow down the potent Bowling Green offense. Marshall is 7-0 against the spread after a conference loss and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog. Bowling Green is only 3-6 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record and Marshall has won four out of the last five meetings between these teams. I'll take the points here!
3 STAR: Eastern Michigan (+12) OVER KENT STATE
Looks like too many points here also. Eastern Michigan has one of the worst defenses in division one, but its not like Kent State has a shut down defense themselves. The EM Eagles have a high powered offense that ranks 16th in the nation in total offense and they come into this game rolling. Eastern Michigan's passing attack was in high gear during a 61-58 win over Central Michigan last week as Eagles quarterback Matt Bohnet threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns. That offense should keep right on rolling in this game and at least keep Eastern Michigan within the number. This is also another series that has been pretty one sided as of late with Eastern Michigan beating Kent State in five out of the last six meetings. The Golden Flashes have not found themselves in the roll of a favorite very often, and they have not done well in that roll, posting a 2-4 record against the spread in their last six games as a favorite. I'll take the points here!
2 STAR: OHIO (Pick) OVER Akron
Interesting line here, as we have 4-6 Ohio instilled as a one point favorite over a 5-4 Akron team that is coming off of a huge National TV win over Marshall last week. I think this is a tough spot for Akron. This is a sandwich game between the win over Marshall and their big match up next week with Miami Ohio. I think the Zips are ripe for the upset, even though its not an upset to the lines makers. Ohio is coming off of a nice overtime win at Central Florida and this is their final game of the season, with no chance at a MAC championship, they will play loose and look to kill any shot that Akron has at a MAC title. Akron is only 4-7 against the spread after a conference win. I'll take the Bobcats here!
2 STAR: INDIANA (+3.5) OVER Penn State
Penn State has not won a Big 10 road game since the last time they won at Indiana two years ago. PSU has pretty much owned the Hoosiers, spanking them last season 52-7 at Happy Valley and winning at Indiana two years ago 58-25, but I think Indiana has closed the gap considerably since then. The Hoosiers have show that they have the ability to play with the big boys, as their wins over Oregon and Minnesota this season suggest, and I think they can pull off the upset here. Asking Penn State to lay points on the road is a tough thing to do. Their quarterbacks Mills and Robinson are terrible. When Robinson is not playing QB he is in at wide out and he sucks at that position as well. The PSU offense has only generated 40 points in the last seven games, thats not even six points per game! I know that Indiana defense is not great, but I just don't see PSU lighting up the scoreboard. Penn State's defense will have to keep them in the game, and even though they are a very good unit, I still see Indiana putting some points on the board here. They will really be calling for Joe Pa's job if they lose here. I'll take the points!
2 STAR: WYOMING (+23) OVER Utah
Utah is still undefeated and they are 8-1 against the spread this season, but they are no longer an "under the radar" team, so there is no longer any value in the line to play on Utah. In fact, the lines are being more inflated every week for the Utah games. As soon as the opening line comes out, the public starts to ****** the Utes, and they have been winning by doing so, but I think that ends this week. I think this is a very dangerous game for the Utes and their final road block to an undefeated season. But I think laying more than three touchdowns here is way too much. Wyoming is undefeated at home this year, and they average almost 37 points per game in those home games. The Utah offense is fantastic, they are second in the nation in scoring, but their defense has been leaky at times this year and Wyoming is good enough to make this one close. I'll take the big points here with the home dog that's 5-2 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record!
2 STAR: Texas Tech (+2.5) OVER TEXAS A&M
The Aggies pulled out all the stops against OU last week and they played the Sooners very tough at College Station like they always do. But this week is a different story, the Red Raiders have had the better of this series with A&M, especially against the number and that is what we care about. Texas Tech is 10-2 against the spread in the last 12 meetings with the Aggies and they have won the last two meetings at Kyle Field straight up. I don't think the Aggie's secondary can cover all of the Tech receivers. The Aggie pass defense was said to be much improved this season, but against a good passing attack of Oklahoma the Aggies allowed Jason White to throw for almost 300 yards and 5 touchdowns. Now the reeling A&M pass defense gets to play Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are number one in the nation in passing throwing 411 yards per game. Texas Tech is 9-2 against the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or less and I like them here in this spot. Take the points!
2004 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 9-7 (+10.65 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 18-15-2 (+3.90 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 20-20-1 (-2.20 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 13-10 (+3.10 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 60-52-3 (+14.35 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1435.00
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