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  • Wednesday's Service Plays Thread

    nt

  • #2
    dr bob football--a pass

    LOUISVILLE (-24.5) 41 TCU 17
    04:30 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-10 - Stats Matchup
    Louisville is a very good team, but the price you have to pay to play them is a bit inflated lately. The Cardinals barely escaped with a win against Memphis last week, winning 56-49 in a very entertaining contest as a 13 ½ point favorite. TCU is a pretty good team aside from their inability to defend the pass (7.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average defense) and play special teams (5.1 points per game worse than average), but they still rate as a pretty good value mathematically since Louisville will probably be content to run the ball a lot if they do get a comfortable lead and TCU is outstanding defending the run (allowing 3.9 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average team). Louisville also puts backup quarterback Brian Brohm in the game when they get a big lead and, while Brohm is pretty good, he’s not nearly as good as starting QB Stephan LeFors. If LeFors played the entire game, my math model would favor Louisville by 22 ½ points, but it favors the Cardinals by just 19 ½ points if Brohm gets his usual number of snaps in this game. TCU has a pretty good offense (5.7 yppl and rates as average on a national scale) and Louisville’s defense now rates at just 0.4 yppl better than average, so the Horned Frogs are certainly capable of moving the ball at a decent rate in this game. While the line value is on the side of the Frogs, it is the Cardinals that qualify in a very good 81-24-3 ATS situation that is worth 4 points more than a 58-25 ATS situation that applies to Tcu. This game looks like a good game to stay away from.

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    • #3
      Net Prophet

      NBA:

      Portland/Boston OVER 181
      Phoenix/Cleveland UNDER 203'
      Utah/Toronto UNDER 199

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      • #4
        Looking for Big Al gow for today, he went 2-0 yesterday.......

        Illjaunt
        RED LIGHT UP THAT CIGAR

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        • #5
          Tin....

          I have to ask for JB once again if you have them please (especially after a 3-0 night)....thanks my friend!

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          • #6
            NSA USA conf GOY

            NSA has finally turned on the heat this year. After losing their first three conf GOYs they have won their last 3. Today is their USA conf. GOY. Please Post and thanks in advance!


            Now that's tighter than fish pussy!
            Last edited by slipperytrout; 11-10-2004, 01:14 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              tinfw17

              JB has a 3* and a 2* going today. Thanks so much!

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              • #8
                snowball

                I'm still waiting on them as well. I'll post as soon as I get them.

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                • #9
                  Northcoast

                  Complimentary Play for Saturday

                  South Carolina

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                  • #10
                    drbob baskets

                    Wednesday, November 10
                    New Jersey (+9) 89 PHILADELPHIA 93
                    The 76ers are just 9-33 ATS as a home favorite of 4 points or more the last couple of years and that’s certainly enough for me to lean against them in that situation tonight. The Sixers are a bit better laying 4 points or more at home when coming off a loss (8-14 ATS), which will keep this from being a Best Bet.

                    MILWAUKEE (-11 ½) 106 Charlotte 90
                    Expansion Charlotte got their inaugural victory in only their second game, a 111-100 home win over Orlando. However, the Bobcats qualify in a negative 17-59-5 ATS letdown situation that is based on that win. Milwaukee has a long history of failure laying 7 points or more (31-64-1 ATS, 4-7 ATS last season), but that team trend is not nearly as strong as the negative situation applying to Charlotte and the Bucks have a profitable 55% chance of covering the number.

                    UTAH (-11) 107 Toronto 90 (possible Best Bet)
                    The Utah Jazz have a big advantage playing at home against teams that played the previous night, as the high altitude in Salt Lake City has a tendency to negatively affect unrested teams. Utah is an incredible 113-60-1 ATS when not favored by more than 15 points in home games against unrested teams going as far back as my database goes (1990). The record is an even better 82-36-1 ATS more recently, including 13-4 ATS last season and 1-0 ATS already this year (a 16 point win over the Lakers on 11/3). Utah has played better than any team in the NBA this season and a fair line based on this year’s games only would be 15 ½ points. However, the Jazz aren’t likely to continue to play at the extremely high level that they have so far (14 points better than an average NBA team) and my ratings favor the Jazz by 10 points in this game, which is the number at which I’d make Utah a Best Bet.

                    Make Utah to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 10 points or less.

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                    • #11
                      hoops services

                      okay once again i ask which services are the best in hoops,and only post them if they get posted on here,because the last time i asked this i seen several services posted as ones to follow and they seem to never make it on this thread,so if they don't get posted then don't tell me about them,all that does is waste my time.if you don't want to help out then thats fine,if you do and want to post then thats ok too.

                      seaofred
                      I AM A NITWIT

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                      • #12
                        Seaofred

                        Hey -

                        I just read about your hospital stay and I wish you a speedy and complete recovery .

                        I don't get too involved with services but for Pro and especially College Basketball I've found that Private Players of Pittsburgh overall does a nice job.

                        BC members ... EZ Winners ... Bennojd ... and Shorty ( his 10* star plays are strong ) have done well .... to name a few. Also Kmann's College Baskets are powerful.

                        Hope this helps, and again ... get well soon.

                        -cb

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                        • #13
                          NBA Comp Picks

                          Autobahn Sports:

                          Pacers -5.5

                          Tallahassee-Syndicate:

                          Sixers -9
                          Posted Plays

                          2006 NFL Record: 10-8-1 (+11.21 units)
                          5*: 1-0

                          2006 NCAA Football Record: 25-20 (+10.74 units)
                          5*: 0-2

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                          • #14
                            JB Sports Picks (yesterday 3-0)

                            3* Memphis
                            2* Washington

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                            • #15
                              northcoast comps

                              Does anyone have northcoast comp for yesterday?
                              :bounce1: WINNING IS EVERYTHING! :bounce1:

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