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By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
Believe it or not, there's as much at stake when Iowa State hosts Nebraska in
the Big 12 Conference Saturday as when Oklahoma travels to Texas A&M. A win by
Oklahoma almost assures the Sooners the Big 12 South title. Iowa State becomes
the leader in the clubhouse of the Big 12 North if it can upset the Cornhuskers
at home.
We think the Cyclones will win, and list them as one of our best bets this week,
along with Wisconsin and Maryland, who are also trying to position for
postseason glory.
Saturday
Wisconsin -6 over Minnesota: Freshened by a week off, Barry Alvarez's 8-0
Badgers are ready for the stretch run at the Big Ten crown and the BCS prize
that might await them. This is their last home game of the season, and they're
not about to blow it. In the week off, the Badgers had a chance to get everyone
healthy including their great defensive end, Erasmus James. Minnesota has lost
three of the last four, including last week's startling loss at Indiana. The
Gophers seem to have lost focus and don't play much defense on the road.
The pick: Wisconsin (best bet), which is executing at a very high level.
Penn State -3½ over Northwestern: Lost in Penn State's horrible offensive run is
that the defense is one of the best in the country, yielding only 13 points per
game against the best of the Big Ten. Coach Joe Paterno is tired of answering
questions about whether he's worthy of returning next year. The tension extends
to the team, and something's bound to give. We think it will be an offensive
explosion at home this week.
Northwestern has been playing at a high level. In the last four weeks, the
Wildcats have upset Ohio State and Purdue, beat Indiana in overtime and played
tough against Wisconsin. With Michigan ahead next week, it would be natural for
Northwestern to take a breath and ease up a step. Unfortunately, the Wildcats
picked a time when Penn State is starving for a victim.
The pick: Penn State. If the Nittany Lions can score 17 or more, the defense
will do the rest
.
Army +4 over Air Force: Army is playing its best football in several years under
coach Bobby Ross. Last week's loss at East Carolina snapped a two-game winning
streak. Beating Cincinnati and South Florida back to back was a nice
accomplishment, and now Air Force rolls into Miche Stadium. The Falcons have won
the last four in this series, and after losing to Navy earlier this year, they
have no shot at the Commander in Chief trophy.
Air Force is also showing signs of fatigue, losing four of the last five, a
similar pattern to what happened late in each of the last two seasons. The
Falcons are also replacing freshman Shaun Carney at quarterback with junior Adam
Fitch. Fitch led Air Force to three late scores in a mop-up roll in last week's
43-26 defeat at Wyoming. The previous week, the Falcons were also torched by
BYU. Expect Army to get in their licks, too.
The pick: Army, in another wild one.
Syracuse -3 over Pittsburgh: Much has been made of the fact that Pitt now
controls its own destiny in the Big East – after such a rough start – and could
possibly wind up with a BCS berth. Unfortunately the Panthers' "destiny"
includes playing at Syracuse and at home against West Virginia on Nov. 25. Next
week, the Panthers travel to Notre Dame, and they might get caught thinking more
about the Irish than the Orange. They have won three in a row, albeit two were
against Rutgers and Temple.
The Orange showed tremendous life last week toying with Connecticut, and were no
doubt aided by the return of star RB Walter Reyes. For that matter, if Syracuse
wins out (at Temple and at Boston College), it will be bowl eligible and have a
shot at the Big East title. It comes down to whether the Panthers can slow down
Reyes and Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. We don't expect that to happen.
The pick: Syracuse.
Oklahoma -12 over Texas A&M: Seventy-seven to nothing! The sound of that score
must ring in the ears of the A&M players every day, for that's what Oklahoma did
to them last year. And it's part of the reason the Aggies took their eye off the
ball, lost concentration and gave one away last week at Baylor. Until the Baylor
loss, Texas A&M had a nice run of six straight victories after losing its opener
at Utah. QB Reggie McNeal has been celebrated for his running and accurate
passing.
The problem, though, is defense. Specifically, the pass defense, which has given
up more than 600 yards and six touchdowns the last two weeks against Colorado
and Baylor. That's right, Colorado and Baylor, not USC and Arizona State. And it
just so happens that Jason White and Oklahoma have a pretty good passing game.
Last week Oklahoma State decided it would take Mark Clayton away from the
Sooners, so White, instead, hit Mark Bradley for three first-half TDs. Throw in
the great Adrian Peterson running the ball, and Oklahoma certainly has the
ability to keep the Aggies at arm's length. If Texas A&M can't slow down Jason
White and Co., all the revenge motives in the world won't mean a thing.
The pick: Oklahoma, which won't be caught napping.
Maryland +14 at Virginia: The Cavaliers have done a terrific job this year, but
had the air come out of the ball against Florida State. A subsequent thrashing
of Duke and a week off may have revived the Cavs for the final run. They'll need
it because Maryland comes to town at the wrong time for Virginia. Fresh off its
upset of Florida State, Maryland now believes it can run the table and wind up
in a good bowl game.
There's no denying the Terp defense has been spectacular. The last three weeks
Maryland's defense has given up 13 points to N.C. State (and lost), 10 to
Clemson (and lost) and 10 to Florida State (and won). With that kind of defense
and the new attitude being reflected by the team, Virginia may have its hands
full.
The pick: Maryland (best bet).
Vanderbilt +13 over Florida: This is a perfect situation game. Florida is coming
off of an emotional loss to Georgia and the news of the firing of coach Ron Zook
(which came after an upset loss at Mississippi State and a last-second loss to
LSU). There's no way that Florida is going to come into Vanderbilt with any kind
of enthusiasm. The Gators also lost MLB Channing Crowder (foot) to injury.
Vandy, on the other hand, has been competitive all year and looked only one or
two big plays short last week at LSU. This is a golden opportunity for the
Commodores to get their biggest victory in years.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Iowa State +4½ over Nebraska: If you haven't been paying attention, the Big 12
North is up for grabs, and Iowa State – of all teams – is in the driver's seat.
A victory at home over Nebraska puts the Cyclones at 4-1 in their division and
in the lead for the right to play Oklahoma for the Big 12 title. This is
shocking because the Cyclones were dismissed so rudely by both Oklahoma State
and Texas A&M, which was followed by a third straight loss at Colorado. But
since then, they've beaten Baylor and Kansas and put themselves in a position to
shock Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers have been up and down under first-year coach Bill Callahan,
losing their last two road games (at Texas Tech and Kansas State) while giving
up a combined 115 points. Last week at home, they beat a Missouri team that
might have quit on its coach. Two years ago Nebraska lost at Iowa State when
both teams were considerably better. We don't expect the Huskers to give up 45
or 70 points (as in their last two on the road) but we don't expect them to win,
either.
The pick: Iowa State (best bet).
Hawaii -4 over Louisiana Tech: This is Louisiana Tech's first trip to Hawaii,
and it comes after a week off. It's a long, long trip from Louisiana to Hawaii.
The Bulldogs are likely to be distracted by the sights, and there might be some
rust from the break. Hawaii plays at a much higher level at home. They were
embarrassed last week by Boise State and will want to atone for that showing.
Also, QB Timmy Chang will break the NCAA passing record early in the game, and
that's as good a reason as any for the Warriors to celebrate.
The pick: Hawaii.
Passing thoughts
Continuing our theme, double-digit home dogs (DDHD) had another big week, going
9-5 and winning five of the 14 games outright. For the month of October DDHD
were an incredible 34-13. … Michigan State's loss of quarterback Drew Stanton is
a huge one, as coach John L. Smith had built the offense around him. Ohio State
is the beneficiary this week, but still must win in East Lansing. … Kansas will
have to hold off Colorado without its starting QB Adam Barmann (lost for the
season), while Buffaloes' RB Bobby Purify's playing time will be limited by an
injured shoulder. … Arkansas got QB Matt Jones tip top in its week off, while
South Carolina looks physically and emotionally drained. … On the surface, Utah
should handle Colorado State handily, especially at home. But Utah barely won in
the final minute last year, and the Rams come into Utah with no fear, having won
the previous five against the Utes.
Southern Miss gets QB Dustin Almond back just in time. Their hosting suddenly
hot Cincinnati, which can still become bowl eligible. … Georgia Tech again has
lost its star RB P.J. Daniel to injury, while its opponent this week, N.C.
State, has lost its leading receiver, Rich Washington. … Alabama is a very big
favorite over streaking Mississippi State, whose coach, Sylvester Croom, was
denied the 'Bama job. The Tide also may be looking ahead to LSU next. … Central
Florida (UCF) hasn't won this year but has showed competitive signs and may take
its first this week against an exhausted Ohio squad. … Tulane reverted to form
last week at Houston, but it might be very competitive at home this week against
Navy, which needs to keep winning to get an upgraded bowl. Giving 12 at Tulane
seems too generous for a team that put up 59 against UAB. … Arkansas State,
which played Mississippi, Memphis and Troy very close, got healthy during a week
off and is likely to run past Idaho, which is playing its 10th game in 10 weeks.
Last Week: 9-2-1; Season: 50-47-1
Last Week's Best Bets: 3-0-1; Season: 9-16-1
Special to ESPN Insider
Believe it or not, there's as much at stake when Iowa State hosts Nebraska in
the Big 12 Conference Saturday as when Oklahoma travels to Texas A&M. A win by
Oklahoma almost assures the Sooners the Big 12 South title. Iowa State becomes
the leader in the clubhouse of the Big 12 North if it can upset the Cornhuskers
at home.
We think the Cyclones will win, and list them as one of our best bets this week,
along with Wisconsin and Maryland, who are also trying to position for
postseason glory.
Saturday
Wisconsin -6 over Minnesota: Freshened by a week off, Barry Alvarez's 8-0
Badgers are ready for the stretch run at the Big Ten crown and the BCS prize
that might await them. This is their last home game of the season, and they're
not about to blow it. In the week off, the Badgers had a chance to get everyone
healthy including their great defensive end, Erasmus James. Minnesota has lost
three of the last four, including last week's startling loss at Indiana. The
Gophers seem to have lost focus and don't play much defense on the road.
The pick: Wisconsin (best bet), which is executing at a very high level.
Penn State -3½ over Northwestern: Lost in Penn State's horrible offensive run is
that the defense is one of the best in the country, yielding only 13 points per
game against the best of the Big Ten. Coach Joe Paterno is tired of answering
questions about whether he's worthy of returning next year. The tension extends
to the team, and something's bound to give. We think it will be an offensive
explosion at home this week.
Northwestern has been playing at a high level. In the last four weeks, the
Wildcats have upset Ohio State and Purdue, beat Indiana in overtime and played
tough against Wisconsin. With Michigan ahead next week, it would be natural for
Northwestern to take a breath and ease up a step. Unfortunately, the Wildcats
picked a time when Penn State is starving for a victim.
The pick: Penn State. If the Nittany Lions can score 17 or more, the defense
will do the rest
.
Army +4 over Air Force: Army is playing its best football in several years under
coach Bobby Ross. Last week's loss at East Carolina snapped a two-game winning
streak. Beating Cincinnati and South Florida back to back was a nice
accomplishment, and now Air Force rolls into Miche Stadium. The Falcons have won
the last four in this series, and after losing to Navy earlier this year, they
have no shot at the Commander in Chief trophy.
Air Force is also showing signs of fatigue, losing four of the last five, a
similar pattern to what happened late in each of the last two seasons. The
Falcons are also replacing freshman Shaun Carney at quarterback with junior Adam
Fitch. Fitch led Air Force to three late scores in a mop-up roll in last week's
43-26 defeat at Wyoming. The previous week, the Falcons were also torched by
BYU. Expect Army to get in their licks, too.
The pick: Army, in another wild one.
Syracuse -3 over Pittsburgh: Much has been made of the fact that Pitt now
controls its own destiny in the Big East – after such a rough start – and could
possibly wind up with a BCS berth. Unfortunately the Panthers' "destiny"
includes playing at Syracuse and at home against West Virginia on Nov. 25. Next
week, the Panthers travel to Notre Dame, and they might get caught thinking more
about the Irish than the Orange. They have won three in a row, albeit two were
against Rutgers and Temple.
The Orange showed tremendous life last week toying with Connecticut, and were no
doubt aided by the return of star RB Walter Reyes. For that matter, if Syracuse
wins out (at Temple and at Boston College), it will be bowl eligible and have a
shot at the Big East title. It comes down to whether the Panthers can slow down
Reyes and Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. We don't expect that to happen.
The pick: Syracuse.
Oklahoma -12 over Texas A&M: Seventy-seven to nothing! The sound of that score
must ring in the ears of the A&M players every day, for that's what Oklahoma did
to them last year. And it's part of the reason the Aggies took their eye off the
ball, lost concentration and gave one away last week at Baylor. Until the Baylor
loss, Texas A&M had a nice run of six straight victories after losing its opener
at Utah. QB Reggie McNeal has been celebrated for his running and accurate
passing.
The problem, though, is defense. Specifically, the pass defense, which has given
up more than 600 yards and six touchdowns the last two weeks against Colorado
and Baylor. That's right, Colorado and Baylor, not USC and Arizona State. And it
just so happens that Jason White and Oklahoma have a pretty good passing game.
Last week Oklahoma State decided it would take Mark Clayton away from the
Sooners, so White, instead, hit Mark Bradley for three first-half TDs. Throw in
the great Adrian Peterson running the ball, and Oklahoma certainly has the
ability to keep the Aggies at arm's length. If Texas A&M can't slow down Jason
White and Co., all the revenge motives in the world won't mean a thing.
The pick: Oklahoma, which won't be caught napping.
Maryland +14 at Virginia: The Cavaliers have done a terrific job this year, but
had the air come out of the ball against Florida State. A subsequent thrashing
of Duke and a week off may have revived the Cavs for the final run. They'll need
it because Maryland comes to town at the wrong time for Virginia. Fresh off its
upset of Florida State, Maryland now believes it can run the table and wind up
in a good bowl game.
There's no denying the Terp defense has been spectacular. The last three weeks
Maryland's defense has given up 13 points to N.C. State (and lost), 10 to
Clemson (and lost) and 10 to Florida State (and won). With that kind of defense
and the new attitude being reflected by the team, Virginia may have its hands
full.
The pick: Maryland (best bet).
Vanderbilt +13 over Florida: This is a perfect situation game. Florida is coming
off of an emotional loss to Georgia and the news of the firing of coach Ron Zook
(which came after an upset loss at Mississippi State and a last-second loss to
LSU). There's no way that Florida is going to come into Vanderbilt with any kind
of enthusiasm. The Gators also lost MLB Channing Crowder (foot) to injury.
Vandy, on the other hand, has been competitive all year and looked only one or
two big plays short last week at LSU. This is a golden opportunity for the
Commodores to get their biggest victory in years.
The pick: Vanderbilt.
Iowa State +4½ over Nebraska: If you haven't been paying attention, the Big 12
North is up for grabs, and Iowa State – of all teams – is in the driver's seat.
A victory at home over Nebraska puts the Cyclones at 4-1 in their division and
in the lead for the right to play Oklahoma for the Big 12 title. This is
shocking because the Cyclones were dismissed so rudely by both Oklahoma State
and Texas A&M, which was followed by a third straight loss at Colorado. But
since then, they've beaten Baylor and Kansas and put themselves in a position to
shock Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers have been up and down under first-year coach Bill Callahan,
losing their last two road games (at Texas Tech and Kansas State) while giving
up a combined 115 points. Last week at home, they beat a Missouri team that
might have quit on its coach. Two years ago Nebraska lost at Iowa State when
both teams were considerably better. We don't expect the Huskers to give up 45
or 70 points (as in their last two on the road) but we don't expect them to win,
either.
The pick: Iowa State (best bet).
Hawaii -4 over Louisiana Tech: This is Louisiana Tech's first trip to Hawaii,
and it comes after a week off. It's a long, long trip from Louisiana to Hawaii.
The Bulldogs are likely to be distracted by the sights, and there might be some
rust from the break. Hawaii plays at a much higher level at home. They were
embarrassed last week by Boise State and will want to atone for that showing.
Also, QB Timmy Chang will break the NCAA passing record early in the game, and
that's as good a reason as any for the Warriors to celebrate.
The pick: Hawaii.
Passing thoughts
Continuing our theme, double-digit home dogs (DDHD) had another big week, going
9-5 and winning five of the 14 games outright. For the month of October DDHD
were an incredible 34-13. … Michigan State's loss of quarterback Drew Stanton is
a huge one, as coach John L. Smith had built the offense around him. Ohio State
is the beneficiary this week, but still must win in East Lansing. … Kansas will
have to hold off Colorado without its starting QB Adam Barmann (lost for the
season), while Buffaloes' RB Bobby Purify's playing time will be limited by an
injured shoulder. … Arkansas got QB Matt Jones tip top in its week off, while
South Carolina looks physically and emotionally drained. … On the surface, Utah
should handle Colorado State handily, especially at home. But Utah barely won in
the final minute last year, and the Rams come into Utah with no fear, having won
the previous five against the Utes.
Southern Miss gets QB Dustin Almond back just in time. Their hosting suddenly
hot Cincinnati, which can still become bowl eligible. … Georgia Tech again has
lost its star RB P.J. Daniel to injury, while its opponent this week, N.C.
State, has lost its leading receiver, Rich Washington. … Alabama is a very big
favorite over streaking Mississippi State, whose coach, Sylvester Croom, was
denied the 'Bama job. The Tide also may be looking ahead to LSU next. … Central
Florida (UCF) hasn't won this year but has showed competitive signs and may take
its first this week against an exhausted Ohio squad. … Tulane reverted to form
last week at Houston, but it might be very competitive at home this week against
Navy, which needs to keep winning to get an upgraded bowl. Giving 12 at Tulane
seems too generous for a team that put up 59 against UAB. … Arkansas State,
which played Mississippi, Memphis and Troy very close, got healthy during a week
off and is likely to run past Idaho, which is playing its 10th game in 10 weeks.
Last Week: 9-2-1; Season: 50-47-1
Last Week's Best Bets: 3-0-1; Season: 9-16-1
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