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YTD: CFB 22-23 -4.55 units
4* College Football GOY
Houston -13 1/2 (-120)
I look for everything to be perfect in my one game of the year and this is it for college. Houston played three tough games in row on road and played respectably in all, losing each and then came home last week to convincingly beat Tulane 24-3. This is their second home game in a row and they catch an awful team. East Carolina has no defense to speak of. EC has given up 163 points the last four weeks and has a terrible pass defense. Houston's multiple offense features the run and pass and this 2-6 team is hungry to blow somebody out. EC won at home last week but as a dog to Army! A home dog to Army---that tells you how bad they've been playing. Houston's defense is better than it seems and has iffy stats only because of its brutal schedule. I'll take the coaching matchup of Briles versus Thompson, get the home field, get a team that's improving and is better than its record versus the worst team in C-USA.
Also,
2* Arizona State -10
This line will keep moving and may get to 12 or 13. ASU is the third best team in the Pac-10 behind Cal and USC. Stanford is, well, Stanford. ASU's potent offense was shut down last week on the road versus Cal and QB Walter will look to break out here. Stanford was likewise shut out on the road last week but against so-so UCLA. Teams with good coaches play well down the stretch and teams with poor coaches fade. ASU's Koetter is solid and Stanford's Teevens is something of a laughingstock and likely will be fired at end of year.
1* South Carolina -3 1/2
This team is killing me but I can't abandon them in a great spot at home against Arkansas. SC can still get bowl eligible with a win and played very well for three quarters against Tennessee. The number is reasonable. If I'm wrong, I'm done with them.
NFL: YTD 13-10 +0.6 units
2* San Diego -6
Hard as it is to believe, the Chargers are a playoff contender. At home for the second week in a row versus a listless New Orleans team off the bye. Is there anybody in the NFL worse against the run than the Saints? is there any team moving the ball better with a balanced attack than San Diego? Play (like the college plays) is posted early because I expect the line to soar upwards.
Most plays rated 1* with a few 2*s and one 4* GOY in both NFL and college.
4* College Football GOY
Houston -13 1/2 (-120)
I look for everything to be perfect in my one game of the year and this is it for college. Houston played three tough games in row on road and played respectably in all, losing each and then came home last week to convincingly beat Tulane 24-3. This is their second home game in a row and they catch an awful team. East Carolina has no defense to speak of. EC has given up 163 points the last four weeks and has a terrible pass defense. Houston's multiple offense features the run and pass and this 2-6 team is hungry to blow somebody out. EC won at home last week but as a dog to Army! A home dog to Army---that tells you how bad they've been playing. Houston's defense is better than it seems and has iffy stats only because of its brutal schedule. I'll take the coaching matchup of Briles versus Thompson, get the home field, get a team that's improving and is better than its record versus the worst team in C-USA.
Also,
2* Arizona State -10
This line will keep moving and may get to 12 or 13. ASU is the third best team in the Pac-10 behind Cal and USC. Stanford is, well, Stanford. ASU's potent offense was shut down last week on the road versus Cal and QB Walter will look to break out here. Stanford was likewise shut out on the road last week but against so-so UCLA. Teams with good coaches play well down the stretch and teams with poor coaches fade. ASU's Koetter is solid and Stanford's Teevens is something of a laughingstock and likely will be fired at end of year.
1* South Carolina -3 1/2
This team is killing me but I can't abandon them in a great spot at home against Arkansas. SC can still get bowl eligible with a win and played very well for three quarters against Tennessee. The number is reasonable. If I'm wrong, I'm done with them.
NFL: YTD 13-10 +0.6 units
2* San Diego -6
Hard as it is to believe, the Chargers are a playoff contender. At home for the second week in a row versus a listless New Orleans team off the bye. Is there anybody in the NFL worse against the run than the Saints? is there any team moving the ball better with a balanced attack than San Diego? Play (like the college plays) is posted early because I expect the line to soar upwards.
Most plays rated 1* with a few 2*s and one 4* GOY in both NFL and college.
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