Tuesday's Service Plays

[wayne1218]

Post Here

[Cubs04]

Kyle Baugues

NBA Best Bets:

Los Angeles Lakers -3
Dallas Mavericks -4 (Game of the Week)

[Sportbook Guru]

3 units Denver Nuggets +3
3 units Sacramento/Dallas Under 205.5


SPORTBOOK GURU

[mary]

dr bob

Tuesday Night Best Bet
Tuesday, November 2
**MIAMI – OHIO (-5) 40 Toledo 26
I went against Toledo for a 3-Star win in their most recent game, a 27-22 win over Central Michigan as a 24 point favorite, and the Rockets remain overrated. Toledo’s offense has posted very good numbers (6.6 yards per play and 37 points per game), but the Rockets have faced a schedule of mostly bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl and 35.1 points to an average team – so Toledo is really just 0.4 yppl better than average offensively. Miami-Ohio’s defense has allowed 5.2 yppl or less in 6 of their 7 games this season, including just 4.0 yppl at Michigan, but one horrible defensive effort against Cincinnati in game 2 (9.1 yppl allowed) has them rated at 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 4.4 yppl against an average defense). Toledo quarterback Bruce Gradkowski should have pretty good success throwing the football in this game, but their rush attack will be just mediocre and they won’t be able to score enough points to keep up with what their horrible defense allows in this game. Toledo’s defense has given up 5.9 yppl this season (to teams that would average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team) and Miami’s Josh Betts (7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) will have an easy time throwing against a horrendous Rockets’ secondary that has surrendered 7.5 yppl to a slate of opposing quarterbacks that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average defense. Toledo has given up 8.4 yppp or more in 4 of their 8 games despite facing only one better than average pass attack (Minnesota, who tallied 289 yards on just 13 pass plays). Miami’s pass attack hasn’t been quite as good since the injury to top receiver Martin Nance a few weeks ago, but I’ve adjusted for that by using only Betts’ passing stats since Nance has been out and my math model still favors the Redhawks by 9 ½ points in this game.

What makes this a Best Bet is a very good 43-8 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on the Redhawks’ recent outstanding defensive performances (only 7 points allowed in each of their last 2 games). Toledo also hasn’t played nearly as well away from home (17-19-3 ATS) as they have at home (24-12 ATS), especially in competitive games against winning teams – they’re just 3-10-2 ATS away from home against winning teams when favored by 3 points or less or getting points. I’ll lay 7 points or less with Miami-Ohio in a 2-Star Best Bet.

[marshall man]

Dr. Bob

2*-Miami-Ohio (Strong Opinion at 7- or more)

[savage1]

Sebastian's comp. today is Kerry +125. I am not kidding.
Personally this is one comp. which i hope wins, even though I am not going to bet two cents on it-I have enough interest/hope in seeing Kerry win without losing money if he does not.

[mary]

ppp comp and records

Tuesday, 11-2-04

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Today's Comp from Joe Gavazzi


UTAH (-26) over Colorado
Utah's 6th position in the BCS is far from secure due to their strength of schedule. As a result, they need dominating wins vs. the balance of their outmanned schedule. They are now 16-3 ATS since Urban Meyer took over. Though Colorado State's Lubick has been a 66% money machine in late-season play, that record is less than .500 ATS if his Rams come off a loss. Undefeated conference home teams to -44 who were favored by 7 or more points in their previous game are 33-11 ATS vs. .500 or worse opponents, including 20-5 ATS if that road team is off a loss.

[Spark]

Gavazzi's

mary, why don't you just post the comp and save all the other???

[illjaunt]

Looking for Big Al MAC gom......

Illjaunt

[SuperZero]

FairWay Jay Freebie

Oregon +21.5 vs. Cal

Duke delivered our double digit Big ‘Dog winner last week on Fairway’s Free pages, with a near upset of Wake Forest. Now let’s see if you have the Balls to get in front of the Golden Bears. California defense has pitched two straight shutouts over Arizona and Arizona State. The Golden Bears have a prolific, power offense that averages 244 rushing ypg and 249 passing ypg. Running back J.J. Arrington leads the Pac 10 in rushing by margin, 158 ypg with seven straight 100-yard games. Cal leads the Pac 10 in scoring offense (39), total offense (493), pass efficiency (173) 3rd down conversions (49%), red-zone offense (22 TD’s) and TOP (32:26). Former Oregon offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford has built quite a team at Cal in three short years. He has superior special teams/punting edge, and ½ the number of penalties of Oregon which leads the Pac-10 in penalties and yardage. Another blowout? Well, the Ducks travel to Berkeley tied with Cal at 4-1 in the Pac 10. They have won four straight, have an improved defense at #3 just behind Cal in the Pac-10, a pass ‘D allowing 190 ypg and just 50% completions, and the Ducks are #2 in league sacks with 26. Unsung RB Terrence Whitehead ranks 3rd in Pac-10 rushing at 102 ypg, and leads RB’s in receptions with 34. Quarterback Kellen Clemens has thrown for over 2000 yards and leads the Pac-10 in total offense at 271 ypg. The Ducks rallied for two late TD’s to beat the Golden Bears last year, 21-17, spoiling Tedford’s return to Eugene. Oregon has won seven-straight in this series, and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Upset unlikely, but competitive effort certain.

Recommendation: Oregon

[checkers]

5 Star Selections Free Picks for November 2, 2004
NBA Basketball
1 Unit on Los Angeles Lakers [-3 -110]

[eddie]

looking for special k nba plays for tonight.
anyone have them yet.

[BIGJOHN]

Goodfellas Sports

GoodFellas Miami Ohio 7 star

Also, Goodfellas is having a special where it's $200 for a month.
Does anyone wish to go halves with me on this? Let me know.

Thanks

[BIGJOHN]

Sebastian

Miami Ohio

[10DimeBry]

biggreenmachine

anyone have Justin Palmer's college GOY for tonight? I have no idea if this guy is any good. Also looking for Sportsadvisors picks as well. Thanks,

Bryan