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  • MNF Cheat Sheet

    Sports Network

    By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

    (Sports Network) - A pair of longtime AFC East rivals will take to the field on Monday night, when the Jets welcome the Dolphins to the Meadowlands for a primetime battle.

    New York will be looking to recover from its first loss of the 2004 season, a 13-7 defeat at the hands of defending Super Bowl champion New England last Sunday. The loss dropped Herman Edwards' club, which had posted its best five- game start in franchise history, to a game behind the Patriots in the division.

    Miami, meanwhile, will be attempting to build upon its first victory of the season, a 31-14 triumph over NFC West-leading St. Louis. Dave Wannstedt's team, which had scored just 55 points in its first six games prior to last week's win, is vying to recover from a franchise-worst 0-6 start.

    SERIES HISTORY

    The Jets hold a 39-37-1 lead in their all-time series with Miami, including a 17-9 road win on Oct. 3. The Dolphins won in their most recent away contest against New York, taking a 21-10 decision at Giants Stadium last year. The Jets' last win over Miami at home came in 2002.

    New York head coach Herman Edwards has a 4-3 career record against both Miami and Dolphins head coach Dave Wannstedt, while Wannstedt is 4-7 versus the Jets, including a 3-6 record while with his current team.

    In addition to their regular season history, the Jets and Dolphins met in the 1982 AFC Championship, which went to Miami by a 14-0 score.

    DOLPHINS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE

    Miami quarterback Jay Fiedler (838 passing yards, 4 TD, 6 INT) comes off his most efficient outing of the season, a 13-17, 203-yard, two-touchdown game against the Rams. Fiedler, who was sacked six times, faced constant pressure as usual, but was able to burn St. Louis for deep TD passes to wideout Chris Chambers (3 receptions, 128 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Randy McMichael(4 receptions, 78 yards, 1 TD). Chambers and McMichael have combined for 60 of the team's 125 catches on the year, and five of Miami's six receiving touchdowns. Dolphins QBs have been sacked 26 times on the year, worst in the league.

    The Jets' best defense of Tom Brady last week was its pass rush, which dropped the New England quarterback for three sacks on the day. Ends John Abraham and Shaun Ellis combined for a sack-and-a-half, and have now combined for 11 sacks on the season. The New York secondary did little of note last week, as Brady completed 20 of 29 passes for 230 yards. Free safety Erik Coleman chipped in with a team-best eight solo tackles in run support, but failed to improve on his team-best two interceptions. The Jets have been serviceable against the pass this year, ranking 18th in NFL passing defense (217.3 yards per game).

    The Dolphins received their first two rushing scores of the season last week, as running backs Sammy Morris (28 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD) and Travis Minor (3 receptions, 21 yards, 1 TD) both found the end zone via the ground. Morris (182 yards, 1 TD on the year) is listed as questionable for Monday with a wrist sprain. Despite last week's running successes, Miami continues to rank 32nd in NFL rushing offense (76.3 yards per game), and is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

    The Jets allowed New England's Corey Dillon to rush for 115 yards on 22 carries last Sunday, and will be glad to see Miami's less-threatening group of running backs. Linebacker Eric Barton (34 tackles on the year) led Edwards' squad with 12 tackles last week, and will have to continue his production on a linebacking unit that is unlikely to have the services of Sam Cowart (knee) once again. Nose tackle Jason Ferguson (20 tackles), who had four stops last week, has been the Jets' most reliable run-stopper in the trenches. The Jets rank 12th in NFL rushing defense (105.5 yards per game).

    JETS OFFENSE VS. DOLPHINS DEFENSE

    The Jets' offensive struggles against New England had their roots in a below- average rushing day for running back Curtis Martin (683 yards, 6 TD on the year), who was held to 70 yards on 20 carries last week. Martin will look to return to 100-yard form against Miami. The team might begin to give more touches to backup LaMont Jordan (6 carries, 48 yards, 1 TD on the year), who has played well when called upon in 2004. New York comes into Monday night's affair ranked sixth in NFL rushing offense (132.3 yards per game).

    Miami has struggled against the run this season, with average personnel at the point of attack a top culprit in the deficiency. Jeff Zgonina (23 tackles) has been adequate in the trenches, and Jason Taylor (23 tackles) has pitched in as needed. Linebackers Zach Thomas (83 tackles) and Junior Seau (53 tackles) have done most of the team's run-stopping this season, but Seau is questionable with a groin strain going into Monday's game. The Dolphins allowed the Rams' pass-first attack to compile 103 ground yards last week, and the team is now 27th in NFL rushing defense (130.6 yards per game).

    Jets quarterback Chad Pennington (1313 passing yards, 5 TD, 2 INT on the year) didn't play poorly in his team's loss to New England, but failed to execute the second-half touchdown drive the team needed to pull ahead. Pennington completed 19 of 30 passes for 162 yards, passing most often to No. 2 receiver Justin McCareins (6 receptions, 63 yards). Receivers Santana Moss and Wayne Chrebet combined for just three catches in the game, and neither has a touchdown pass in 2004. Backup tight end Chris Baker (12 receptions) leads the Jets with two touchdown grabs on the year, and caught three passes against New England. Pennington has been sacked just six times all year, and New England did not get to him last Sunday.

    The Dolphins' strength this season has been pass defense, and the job they did on St. Louis receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce was directly responsible for the team's first win of the year. Holt and Bruce combined for just six catches on the day. Strong safety Sammy Knight had the team's only interception of Rams quarterback Marc Bulger, which was the club's fifth pick of the year overall. The Dolphins have 16 sacks on the year, including three compiled against the Rams. Taylor and tackle Jeff Zgonina each recorded a sack, and are tied for the team lead with three sacks apiece. Miami continues to rank first in the league against the pass (143.6 yards per game).

    OVERALL ANALYSIS

    Miami comes off its first victory of the year, but there's nothing to suggest that winning will become a trend for the team. The Dolphins matched up well with the pass-first, defend-little Rams, but the Jets have the ability to run the football with Martin and play defense when necessary. The Fins are even weaker than they were when New York defeated them in Week 3, and it will show in a decisive Jets triumph on Monday night.

    Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Jets 31, Dolphins 7

  • #2
    Harmon Forecast

    week 8 - Monday, Nov. 1, 2004

    *N.Y. Jets 26 Miami 7 - Though they outgained the Jets four weeks ago, the Dolphins made more than enough mistakes to lose, 17-9. If N.Y. stays on the ground, it will win two from Miami for a remarkable fifth time in seven seasons.

    Comment


    • #3
      Football.com

      Miami Dolphins (1-6) at New York Jets (5-1)

      Line: Dolphins +7

      Congrats to the Dolphins for finally winning a game! Congrats to Tony Bua for laying the best block I have seen the entire season! I can't abandon my Jets now. This will be a close game but Curtis Martin helps the Jets control the clock and win a close one.

      Comment


      • #4
        ESPN Insider

        Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
        week's matchup between the Dolphins and Jets. Now they're back with a
        second look.


        The Jets have been so difficult to beat this season because they make so
        few mistakes. They are the least penalized team in the NFL and they are
        tied for the league lead in giveaways. In total, the Jets have a plus-9
        turnover differential, which is tied for second best in the NFL.

        Pennington
        One of the reasons they make so few mistakes is QB Chad Pennington, who
        has completed 69-percent of his passing attempts and has thrown just two
        interceptions after six games. The Jets aren't very explosive as an
        offensive unit and they do need to start taking more chances vertically to
        WR Santana Moss, but their ability to protect the football and chew up
        minutes on the game clock not only helps to rest their own defense but
        also to wear down the opponents.
        Considering the rash of injuries and the overall lack of depth that the
        Dolphin defense is dealing with, time of possession will be key in Monday
        night's game. If the Jets can continue to play mistake-free football and
        do a good job of controlling the clock in this game, Miami's defense
        should noticeably wear down in the second half. That's when RB Curtis
        Martin could take over.
        Making matters worse for the Miami defense is the decision that the team
        had to make on Wednesday to place DT Tim Bowens on the injured reserve
        list after he re-aggravated his back. The Dolphin run defense is
        predicated on the play of its defensive tackles, which are responsible for
        taking up space within the two-gap scheme in order to allow undersized MLB
        Zach Thomas to chase from sideline-to-sideline without having to sift
        through too much traffic. Now, without Bowens and Larry Chester, the
        Dolphins simply don't have the size up front with Jeff Zgonina and Bryan
        Robinson -- or the depth behind them -- to properly execute that scheme.
        You can bet that the Jets will look to exploit this potential weakness on
        Monday night with a heavy dose of Martin.
        The Jets need WR Justin McCareins to build on last week's breakout
        performance of six receptions for 83 yards versus the Patriots. The Jets
        are using a lot of three-receiver sets with Moss, McCareins and Wayne
        Chrebet, and with Moss drawing a lot of the extra attention from opposing
        safeties, McCareins is often left working against man-to-man coverage.
        While his opponent this week, RDC Sam Madison, certainly has the
        experience and savvy to keep him in check, McCareins has the advantage
        when it comes to size and speed. If McCareins can utilize those advantages
        to provide a couple of big plays in the vertical passing game it would be
        a huge boost to a Jets' offense that has lacked a big-play element much of
        this season.
        The one area of improvement that has been noticeable on film regarding the
        Dolphins' offense is the play of its line. With so much turnover and
        inexperience to begin the season, the Dolphin offensive line was
        consistently making assignment errors as a result of confusion. Now that
        the unit has had time to play together and has begun to jell, it is making
        fewer and fewer mistakes each week. The challenge this week will be to
        continue to improve against a Jets' defensive front that can be confusing
        because of the hybrid 4-3/3-4 scheme it runs. With DE/OLB John Abraham
        dropping in coverage on some plays and rushing the passer on the other,
        the play of the left side of the Dolphins offensive line (OT Damion
        McIntosh and OG Jeno James) will be especially critical.

        Morris
        In order to prevent its defense from having to stay on the field entirely
        too long on Monday night, the Dolphins must establish a strong running
        attack in this game. With the offensive line making strides and with RB's
        Sammy Morris and Travis Minor finally both healthy at the same time, the
        Dolphins have a chance to do so. Morris was hobbled by a sprained ankle in
        the first five games of the season but has taken over as the primary
        load-carrier and has rushed for 174 yards on 64 carries in the team's last
        two games. Morris isn't overly explosive and he doesn't make many
        defenders miss, but he is a tough runner that can wear a defense down and
        he also does a great job of protecting the football. With Morris carrying
        the load, a healthy Minor is back at his familiar role as a backup and
        third down back. Minor provides a good change of pace as a quicker back
        than Morris, and he also is an asset in the passing game as a blocker and
        a receiver.
        With teams spending a lot of double-team attention on RDE/OLB John
        Abraham, LDE Shaun Ellis is getting a lot of room to operate versus
        typically slower right tackles. Ellis has been exploiting those matchups
        most of the season and he's coming off another productive game against the
        Patriots in which he recorded 1.5 sacks against ROT Russ Hochstein. The
        same should be the case this week, as Ellis will have a big advantage over
        starting ROT John St. Clair, who lacks the feet and change of direction
        skills to handle Ellis one-on-one.

        Special Teams

        Neither team has a significant edge on special teams. In terms of
        personnel in the kicking game, both teams are solid. Jets' PT Toby Gowin
        doesn't have the strongest leg but he has been consistent and has done a
        good job with his hang-time, which has allowed the cover units to get in
        position downfield. Miami PT Matt Turk has also been solid and, in all
        reality, there isn't much of a difference between the two. As far as the
        placekicking comparison, the Jets' Doug Brien doesn't have the leg that
        Miami's Olindo Mare possesses, but Brien has been more consistent and
        accurate from inside the 40-yard line.
        Miami has received surprisingly strong results from rookie RS Wes Welker
        but the Jets still have the advantage in the return game because of the
        potential explosiveness and greater experience that Moss provides. Moss
        has been especially strong on punt returns this season, averaging 10 yards
        per attempt. He could give way to LaMont Jordan on kickoff returns. Jordan
        isn't as much of a threat but he's still more experienced than Welker.

        Matchups

        Miami LOT Damion McIntosh vs. NY Jets WDE John Abraham

        Miami TE Randy McMichael vs. NY Jets SS Reggie Tongue

        Miami ROT John St. Clair vs. NY Jets LDE Shaun Ellis

        NY Jets WR Santana Moss vs. Miami LDC Patrick Surtain

        NY Jets LOT Jason Fabini vs. Miami RDE Jason Taylor

        Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 10

        Comment


        • #5
          HBO Inside the NFL Picks

          Jets 4 Miami 0

          SU NOT ATS

          Comment


          • #6
            ESPN Experts

            Jets 7 Miami 1

            SU NOT ATS

            Comment


            • #7
              Recent trends

              Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
              MIA is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 overall.
              Under is 11-4-1 in MIA last 16 road games.
              Under is 6-1 in NYJ last seven games in Oct.
              Under is 12-3-1 in NYJ last 16 home games.
              Jets are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

              Comment


              • #8
                wayne

                thanks for the info
                1*=$50

                Crusader MM starting qb at Oregon

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hilton Contest

                  Jets -7 (49 picks)
                  Miami +7 (87 picks)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Sunshine Forecast

                    Miami Dolphins (+7) at New York Jets

                    Power Rating Projection: New York Jets 20 Miami Dolphins 16

                    SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction: New York Jets 13 Miami Dolphins 10

                    Historical trend: Take New York Jets ( Domination by New York Jets, 12-4-1, 75.0% )

                    Comment


                    • #11

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