Tweet
By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
We're going with home cooking this week. Ten of our 13 picks have the home-field
advantage. The exceptions are Utah and Tennessee, two true road warriors, and
Florida, who is playing Georgia at a neutral site.
We're also looking for teams pressing for BCS positions to continue to pile on
the points to impress voters. California and Utah are two that fall into that
category this week and might be in that position the rest of the season as they
vie for the last BCS spot.
Friday
Boise State -22½ vs. Hawaii: Boise may be coming off a rivalry game (Fresno),
but don't expect any letdown for Dan Hawkins' team. Facing Hawaii at home, at
night, before a national audience on ESPN is a made-to-order opportunity for a
team hungry for recognition. It also will be a shock to Hawaii to have to play
with the temperature in the 20s (which also makes under 74½ look tempting).
Hawaii can't defend the run, and you can expect Boise State to run at them from
all directions, led by versatile QB Jared Zabransky. Hawaii's passing game might
find some success against the Broncos' secondary (which gave up 42 to Tulsa),
but Timmy Chang will be blitzed enough to make things difficult. Hawaii, a
terrible road team, also is banged up. Boise won by 17 last year at Hawaii and
27 the year before in Boise. This should be easy.
The pick: Boise State in a romp (best bet).
Saturday
Oklahoma State +13 over Oklahoma: To take a favorite giving nearly two
touchdowns, as Oklahoma is in this game, you have to have high expectations they
can win in a blowout. While there's no doubting how talented the Sooners are,
there's plenty of doubt here whether they can even win this game. Oklahoma has
not shown the kind of dominance it did last year, when it scored 50 or more
points seven times. This year the Sooners have gone over 50 only once. The
explosiveness just isn't there. They struggled with Kansas State and last week
for a half with Kansas.
Les Miles, in his fourth year coaching at Oklahoma State, seems to have figured
out how to play the Sooners. In 2001, with a record of 3-7, Oklahoma State went
into Norman, Okla., and pulled a 16-13 shocker. Two years ago, the Cowboys made
it two in a row over the Sooners, 38-28 at home. But last year, the Sooners got
revenge, winning big, 52-9. The Cowboys have displayed a powerful running game
this year, and QB Donovan Woods has been very accurate throwing the football.
He's also a big threat to run. You get the feeling Oklahoma State would rather
win this game than go to the Orange Bowl.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Syracuse -2½ over Connecticut: Syracuse is like Jekyll and Hyde playing at home
and away. And to be fair, in their last game, a decisive 27-6 loss at West
Virginia, several starters were down with the flu. At home, the Orange are 2-1,
losing only 17-13 to Florida State in a game they could have won. This week,
they're home in the Carrier Dome, a field that is difficult for visitors because
of its strange lighting, and Connecticut is a first-time visitor there. In fact,
this is only the Huskies' second road game this year, and their first plane
trip.
UConn has been somewhat disappointing this season, losing to Boston College and
West Virginia (at home) convincingly and struggling with Duke. They have had
their moments against weaker teams like Army and Temple. But this is a huge Big
East match up. There is a tremendous basketball tradition between these two
schools that could carry over. And there's mounting pressure on Syracuse coach
Paul Pasqualoni, who must win games like this to remain at Syracuse.
The pick: Syracuse, with a little home cooking. (best bet).
Florida +7 over Georgia: This game boils down to one question: Will the Florida
players play their hearts out for Ron Zook? The answer, most likely, is yes! The
Gators, under Zook, have come up with big efforts in big games. The Mississippi
State loss last week was the result of a hangover after losing to LSU in the
last minute. The fact Zook got fired because of it should ignite this team. The
Gators have won this game the last six years and have won 13 of the last 14.
Georgia has struggled this year, only breaking out against LSU. This game
figures to be hard fought until the bitter end.
The pick: Florida (best bet).
California -15½ over Arizona State: California is obviously one of the best
teams in the country. Arizona State has showed a penchant for allowing
touchdowns, asking its quarterback, Andrew Walter, to bail them out. Cal, one of
the most potent attacks around, will accommodate. The Bears need to impress to
stay high in the polls and overtake Utah for the final BCS spot. One distraction
though, could be the absence of Cal offensive coordinator George Cortez, who
will miss the game after undergoing surgery this week.
The pick: California.
Tennessee (pick 'em) over South Carolina: Tennessee has been remarkably
consistent this year, losing only to powerhouse Auburn. Vols coach Phillip
Fulmer sounded relaxed and confident earlier this week. He should be, because
Tennessee has beaten the Gamecocks in their last 11 meetings. Gamecock coach Lou
Holtz is one of the best at getting a team ready, but he continues to have
quarterback problems. Dondrial Pinkins returns this week from a rotator cuff
tear but says he still has pain when he throws deep. After Pinkins, its slim
pickin's as the Gamecocks' 12-7 escape victory at Kentucky showed. Also,
Pinkins, healthy or not, hasn't made anybody's all-conference list this year.
The atmosphere is sure to help South Carolina, but Tennessee will take on the
aura of its coach and confidently win this.
The pick: Tennessee (best bet).
Tulane +10 at Houston: Last week's 59-55 victory over UAB was a coming out party
for Tulane quarterback Lester Ricard, who threw for 417 yards and six
touchdowns. This was no accident. Ricard has been coming on, and Houston's
secondary may be just as vulnerable this week. Houston also is suffering the
loss of second-eading receiver Kendal Briles, the coach's son and QB Kevin
Kolb's best friend. This game is more likely to look like last year's 45-42
Houston victory than a Houston blowout.
The pick: Tulane, in a possible upset.
Utah -18½ over San Diego State: Utah continues to light up the board in its
quest for a BCS spot. Coach Urban Meyer has indicated his team needs to impress
voters to stay high in the polls. Normally, the Aztecs' strong defense would be
a worthy foe, but their offense is decimated with injuries. San Diego State has
averaged just 11 points in its last five games (all vs. Mountain West teams).
Chances are they won't score at all against the Utes. So even if they can hold
Utah to 28 points (the last five opponents averaged 24), it's unlikely the
Aztecs can come within 18½ when it's over.
The pick: Utah, again.
Mississippi State -3½ over Kentucky: It's hard to believe last week's effort
against Florida was a mirage that won't be repeated. Even 70 percent of that
effort should be enough to get past lowly Kentucky. The Bulldogs really came
into their own last week, with RB Jerious Norwood emerging as a star. Kentucky's
big efforts are far too infrequent and usually at home. Quarterback Shane Boyd
is questionable with a shoulder injury, and the team is probably more interested
in facing Georgia next week at home. Kentucky also is offensively challenged,
scoring just 43 in its last five games.
The pick: Mississippi State. Sylvester Croom may have unlocked the secret to
turning the Bulldogs loose.
Tulsa +1½ over Rice: Tulsa may be 1-6, but it certainly has given WAC teams fits
lately. Two weeks ago the Golden Hurricane had Boise State on the ropes before
succumbing 45-42. Last week they lost in triple OT at Nevada in a game where RB
Brandon Diles ran 34 times for 202 yards. Tulsa QB James Kilian has showed signs
of last year's form, as well.
Rice lost a tough one last week, 14-13 at Navy on a missed extra point. The
Owls' lack of a passing game won't help them exploit Tulsa's weak point. Two
quarterbacks combined to go 5 of 5 for only 35 yards against Navy. This also
marks the third road game in three weeks for Rice, a sure sign of a tired team.
The play: Tulsa, in a game that might not be that close.
Wyoming -3 over Air Force: The Cowboys have been extremely tough at home this
year, upsetting Mississippi and San Diego State. In fact, Wyoming is 4-0 at
home. Air Force has become too one-dimensional, running it's triple-option
attack. Wyoming also should be able to attack through the air. Last week BYU
threw for four TDs in an easy 41-24 win at Air Force.
The pick: Wyoming.
Passing thoughts
Last week we told you about the new trend of double-digit home 'dogs. Last
week's record was only 4-3 for the home teams, but two of them were enormous
upsets: Mississippi State (+25) over Florida, and Tulane (+18) over UAB. The
record now stands at 25-8 over the last four weeks. Home teams getting at least
10 points this week include Indiana, Rutgers, Mississippi, Oklahoma State,
Maryland, San Jose State, Baylor and San Diego State. The caveat is that these
teams are going up against some of the country's most powerful teams. Buyer
beware.
Northwestern is no place for Purdue to relax following its exhausting battles
the last few weeks, but we wonder how distracted the Wildcats were by the brief
hospitalization of coach Randy Walker for a heart-related problem. … One might
wonder if Illinois has thrown in the towel now that there's talk of another new
coach. … Wonder if Gary Pinkel may have lost his Missouri team after suspending
star RB Damien Nash for criticizing last week's second-half game plan. The
Tigers blew a 17-0 lead at home vs. Oklahoma State and failed to score the last
30 minutes. Pinkel continues to demonstrate his weakness for making adjustments.
On the other hand, Bill Callahan isn't exactly smoking with Nebraska. A win at
home Saturday against Missouri is a must. … Maryland can't score on anyone, so
it's surprising they're only 10-point underdogs this week against maybe the best
defense in the country (Florida State). … UCLA has been flourishing on offense
and nearly upset Arizona State last week. A win by five or more over Stanford
would not surprise us. … USC hasn't given up a fourth-quarter touchdown all
year. In fact, the only points the Trojans have yielded in the final 15 minutes
were the three Virginia Tech scored back in August. Another shutout this week at
Washington State wouldn't shock anybody.
Last Week: 5-6; Season: 40-44. Best Bets last week: 1-2; Best Bets, Season:
6-16.
Special to ESPN Insider
We're going with home cooking this week. Ten of our 13 picks have the home-field
advantage. The exceptions are Utah and Tennessee, two true road warriors, and
Florida, who is playing Georgia at a neutral site.
We're also looking for teams pressing for BCS positions to continue to pile on
the points to impress voters. California and Utah are two that fall into that
category this week and might be in that position the rest of the season as they
vie for the last BCS spot.
Friday
Boise State -22½ vs. Hawaii: Boise may be coming off a rivalry game (Fresno),
but don't expect any letdown for Dan Hawkins' team. Facing Hawaii at home, at
night, before a national audience on ESPN is a made-to-order opportunity for a
team hungry for recognition. It also will be a shock to Hawaii to have to play
with the temperature in the 20s (which also makes under 74½ look tempting).
Hawaii can't defend the run, and you can expect Boise State to run at them from
all directions, led by versatile QB Jared Zabransky. Hawaii's passing game might
find some success against the Broncos' secondary (which gave up 42 to Tulsa),
but Timmy Chang will be blitzed enough to make things difficult. Hawaii, a
terrible road team, also is banged up. Boise won by 17 last year at Hawaii and
27 the year before in Boise. This should be easy.
The pick: Boise State in a romp (best bet).
Saturday
Oklahoma State +13 over Oklahoma: To take a favorite giving nearly two
touchdowns, as Oklahoma is in this game, you have to have high expectations they
can win in a blowout. While there's no doubting how talented the Sooners are,
there's plenty of doubt here whether they can even win this game. Oklahoma has
not shown the kind of dominance it did last year, when it scored 50 or more
points seven times. This year the Sooners have gone over 50 only once. The
explosiveness just isn't there. They struggled with Kansas State and last week
for a half with Kansas.
Les Miles, in his fourth year coaching at Oklahoma State, seems to have figured
out how to play the Sooners. In 2001, with a record of 3-7, Oklahoma State went
into Norman, Okla., and pulled a 16-13 shocker. Two years ago, the Cowboys made
it two in a row over the Sooners, 38-28 at home. But last year, the Sooners got
revenge, winning big, 52-9. The Cowboys have displayed a powerful running game
this year, and QB Donovan Woods has been very accurate throwing the football.
He's also a big threat to run. You get the feeling Oklahoma State would rather
win this game than go to the Orange Bowl.
The pick: Oklahoma State.
Syracuse -2½ over Connecticut: Syracuse is like Jekyll and Hyde playing at home
and away. And to be fair, in their last game, a decisive 27-6 loss at West
Virginia, several starters were down with the flu. At home, the Orange are 2-1,
losing only 17-13 to Florida State in a game they could have won. This week,
they're home in the Carrier Dome, a field that is difficult for visitors because
of its strange lighting, and Connecticut is a first-time visitor there. In fact,
this is only the Huskies' second road game this year, and their first plane
trip.
UConn has been somewhat disappointing this season, losing to Boston College and
West Virginia (at home) convincingly and struggling with Duke. They have had
their moments against weaker teams like Army and Temple. But this is a huge Big
East match up. There is a tremendous basketball tradition between these two
schools that could carry over. And there's mounting pressure on Syracuse coach
Paul Pasqualoni, who must win games like this to remain at Syracuse.
The pick: Syracuse, with a little home cooking. (best bet).
Florida +7 over Georgia: This game boils down to one question: Will the Florida
players play their hearts out for Ron Zook? The answer, most likely, is yes! The
Gators, under Zook, have come up with big efforts in big games. The Mississippi
State loss last week was the result of a hangover after losing to LSU in the
last minute. The fact Zook got fired because of it should ignite this team. The
Gators have won this game the last six years and have won 13 of the last 14.
Georgia has struggled this year, only breaking out against LSU. This game
figures to be hard fought until the bitter end.
The pick: Florida (best bet).
California -15½ over Arizona State: California is obviously one of the best
teams in the country. Arizona State has showed a penchant for allowing
touchdowns, asking its quarterback, Andrew Walter, to bail them out. Cal, one of
the most potent attacks around, will accommodate. The Bears need to impress to
stay high in the polls and overtake Utah for the final BCS spot. One distraction
though, could be the absence of Cal offensive coordinator George Cortez, who
will miss the game after undergoing surgery this week.
The pick: California.
Tennessee (pick 'em) over South Carolina: Tennessee has been remarkably
consistent this year, losing only to powerhouse Auburn. Vols coach Phillip
Fulmer sounded relaxed and confident earlier this week. He should be, because
Tennessee has beaten the Gamecocks in their last 11 meetings. Gamecock coach Lou
Holtz is one of the best at getting a team ready, but he continues to have
quarterback problems. Dondrial Pinkins returns this week from a rotator cuff
tear but says he still has pain when he throws deep. After Pinkins, its slim
pickin's as the Gamecocks' 12-7 escape victory at Kentucky showed. Also,
Pinkins, healthy or not, hasn't made anybody's all-conference list this year.
The atmosphere is sure to help South Carolina, but Tennessee will take on the
aura of its coach and confidently win this.
The pick: Tennessee (best bet).
Tulane +10 at Houston: Last week's 59-55 victory over UAB was a coming out party
for Tulane quarterback Lester Ricard, who threw for 417 yards and six
touchdowns. This was no accident. Ricard has been coming on, and Houston's
secondary may be just as vulnerable this week. Houston also is suffering the
loss of second-eading receiver Kendal Briles, the coach's son and QB Kevin
Kolb's best friend. This game is more likely to look like last year's 45-42
Houston victory than a Houston blowout.
The pick: Tulane, in a possible upset.
Utah -18½ over San Diego State: Utah continues to light up the board in its
quest for a BCS spot. Coach Urban Meyer has indicated his team needs to impress
voters to stay high in the polls. Normally, the Aztecs' strong defense would be
a worthy foe, but their offense is decimated with injuries. San Diego State has
averaged just 11 points in its last five games (all vs. Mountain West teams).
Chances are they won't score at all against the Utes. So even if they can hold
Utah to 28 points (the last five opponents averaged 24), it's unlikely the
Aztecs can come within 18½ when it's over.
The pick: Utah, again.
Mississippi State -3½ over Kentucky: It's hard to believe last week's effort
against Florida was a mirage that won't be repeated. Even 70 percent of that
effort should be enough to get past lowly Kentucky. The Bulldogs really came
into their own last week, with RB Jerious Norwood emerging as a star. Kentucky's
big efforts are far too infrequent and usually at home. Quarterback Shane Boyd
is questionable with a shoulder injury, and the team is probably more interested
in facing Georgia next week at home. Kentucky also is offensively challenged,
scoring just 43 in its last five games.
The pick: Mississippi State. Sylvester Croom may have unlocked the secret to
turning the Bulldogs loose.
Tulsa +1½ over Rice: Tulsa may be 1-6, but it certainly has given WAC teams fits
lately. Two weeks ago the Golden Hurricane had Boise State on the ropes before
succumbing 45-42. Last week they lost in triple OT at Nevada in a game where RB
Brandon Diles ran 34 times for 202 yards. Tulsa QB James Kilian has showed signs
of last year's form, as well.
Rice lost a tough one last week, 14-13 at Navy on a missed extra point. The
Owls' lack of a passing game won't help them exploit Tulsa's weak point. Two
quarterbacks combined to go 5 of 5 for only 35 yards against Navy. This also
marks the third road game in three weeks for Rice, a sure sign of a tired team.
The play: Tulsa, in a game that might not be that close.
Wyoming -3 over Air Force: The Cowboys have been extremely tough at home this
year, upsetting Mississippi and San Diego State. In fact, Wyoming is 4-0 at
home. Air Force has become too one-dimensional, running it's triple-option
attack. Wyoming also should be able to attack through the air. Last week BYU
threw for four TDs in an easy 41-24 win at Air Force.
The pick: Wyoming.
Passing thoughts
Last week we told you about the new trend of double-digit home 'dogs. Last
week's record was only 4-3 for the home teams, but two of them were enormous
upsets: Mississippi State (+25) over Florida, and Tulane (+18) over UAB. The
record now stands at 25-8 over the last four weeks. Home teams getting at least
10 points this week include Indiana, Rutgers, Mississippi, Oklahoma State,
Maryland, San Jose State, Baylor and San Diego State. The caveat is that these
teams are going up against some of the country's most powerful teams. Buyer
beware.
Northwestern is no place for Purdue to relax following its exhausting battles
the last few weeks, but we wonder how distracted the Wildcats were by the brief
hospitalization of coach Randy Walker for a heart-related problem. … One might
wonder if Illinois has thrown in the towel now that there's talk of another new
coach. … Wonder if Gary Pinkel may have lost his Missouri team after suspending
star RB Damien Nash for criticizing last week's second-half game plan. The
Tigers blew a 17-0 lead at home vs. Oklahoma State and failed to score the last
30 minutes. Pinkel continues to demonstrate his weakness for making adjustments.
On the other hand, Bill Callahan isn't exactly smoking with Nebraska. A win at
home Saturday against Missouri is a must. … Maryland can't score on anyone, so
it's surprising they're only 10-point underdogs this week against maybe the best
defense in the country (Florida State). … UCLA has been flourishing on offense
and nearly upset Arizona State last week. A win by five or more over Stanford
would not surprise us. … USC hasn't given up a fourth-quarter touchdown all
year. In fact, the only points the Trojans have yielded in the final 15 minutes
were the three Virginia Tech scored back in August. Another shutout this week at
Washington State wouldn't shock anybody.
Last Week: 5-6; Season: 40-44. Best Bets last week: 1-2; Best Bets, Season:
6-16.