NCAA Football - Saturday 10/30

[ez winners]

This is my first play for this weeks college football action. I will add the rest throughout the week. Play number one......




3 STAR: Florida State (-10)(-$120) OVER MARYLAND

I think we are getting some nice value in this line with Florida State due to their sluggish showings in their last two road games at Syracuse and Wake Forest and also due to the fact the Maryland is still perceived as one of the top teams in the ACC even though they are not. Florida State has dominated this series, winning the last 12 meetings and going 9-3 against the spread in those games. Even the good teams that Maryland has had the last few seasons were no match for the Seminoles, with the average score in the last five meetings being FSU 46 and Maryland 14. In fact, in the last eight meetings with Florida State the Terps have only scored more than 10 points one time. This is by far the worst and youngest team that Maryland has had in a few years and I don't see them doing any better on offense in this game. This years Terps offense is really struggling, as they have only scored 17 points combined in their last three games and I expect the struggle to continue against the Seminoles defense that is ranked #8 in the country in total defense. Maryland is 0-4 against the spread at home this season and I look for that to continue here. FSU needs a big win to impress the voters and they should get it here. Lay the points!




2004 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD

5 STAR RECORD 7-6 (+6.15 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 17-12-1 (+11.10 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 17-16-1 (+0.80 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 11-8 (+2.20 UNITS)

OVERALL RECORD 52-42-2 (+20.25 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $2025.00

[ez winners]

Play #2...

Here is my second play for Saturday.....


3 STAR: OHIO STATE (-6) OVER Penn State

I really like the Buckeyes here against a Penn State team that is just horrible. This horrible team only gets worse when they hit the road as they are 0-3 so far on the road and have only scored a combined 17 points in those games. In fact the Nittany Lions have not won a road game since 11/16/02 when they won at Indiana 58-25. Since then, almost a two year span, Penn State has not scored more than 14 points in any of those road games. To make matter worse for Penn State, starting quarterback Zack Mills is questionable still suffering the effects of a concussion last week against Iowa. Mills backup, Michael Robinson is horrible and if he plays the Ohio State defense will have a field day. On the other side of the ball, Penn State has played pretty well on defense, but I look for the Penn State offense to put their defense in some bad spots by turning the ball over. The Buckeye offense is not the greatest either, but I like Troy Smith at quarterback instead of the injured Justin Zwick. Smith provides a spark to the offense that has been missing for most of the season. Ohio State is 5-0 against the spread in their last five home meetings with Penn State and I look for them to cover the number in this one as well. Lay the points!

[Gookis]

I have to agree, I watched the whole PSU game last week. That team is horrible!! If the Over is any higher than 12, the under is a good bet. That team can't score!!

[aplous]

I love the Buckeyes--Ill be throwing down on them minus the points, some on the ML, and using them in some parlays!!!

[trick4]

Good Luck EZ! I also like the under in that game if it is above 30!

[coverman]

Good luck ez , What you think about oregon st laying 7

[mbates]

Good Luck!!
I really like those two plays!!!

[paulsam1]

GOOD LUCK ez

With ya on both, Also like C. Mich -7

[ez winners]

Thanks guys, best of luck to everyone!


Coverman,

I would have to go with the Beavers in that game. Arizona's pass defense is horrible, OSU should be able to move the ball pretty well against the Wildcats. Also, The favorite is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight of this series.

[frazer43]

John

Have you looked at marshall this week

[SuperZero]

EZ YOU THE MAN!

Thanks for your NCAA plays this year, you have been solid. For what it is worth here are somethings I have dug up.

I am playing Miss. St., Rice & OU and am strongly considering NC St, Colo St, and So. Carolina. Also throwing the minimum on Hawaii tomorrow with Timmy Chang the alleged point shaver.

Miss St: Is finally healthy and got a great shot of confidence last week by beating Florida. Kentucky's starting QB is hurt and may not even play. Their starting RB will not play. Kentucky is 102 out of 117 against the run and Miss St will exploit that weakness.

Rice: The Owls have the better overall offense ranked #50 while Tulsa's O is ranked #76. Rice's overall Def ranks #63 and Tulsa's #80. The key stat: Rice's rushing offense is ranked #1 while Tulsa's rush defense is ranked #99.

OU: Ok State is a poor man's Texas. They are 1-dimensional and their defense is far worse than Texas'. OU dominated Texas and should do the same in this spot by shuting down the OSU ground game. Stoops left Jason White in with 35 seconds left in the game last week vs Kansas to throw a TD pass to go up 41-10. Afterwards he said the margain of victory is extremely important because the vast majority of voters do not watch the games they only see the final score. OU is in a dead heat with Miami for the # 2 in the BCS. No reason to believe they will let up here.

NC St: They have the statistical advantage in every category:
Total Offense: NC St # 52 Clemson # 107
Total Defense: NC St # 2 Clemson # 47
Rush Offense: NC St # 35 Clemson # 108
Rush Defense: NC St # 28 Clemson # 78
Pass Offense: NC St # 68 Clemson # 77
Pass Defense: NC St # 2 Clemson # 26
NC St has numerous O-linemen listed on the injury report. If they are not significant players I will definitely play them.

Colo. St: New Mexico has the #110 ranked total offense. Sunny is a great coach and seems to have this team ready to roll through the second half like his teams historically do. Strong hunch play.

South Carolina: Almost identical statistically with Tennessee.
Total Offense: USC # 54 UT # 53
Total Defense: USC # 12 UT # 32
Rush Offense: USC # 40 UT # 41
Rush Defense: USC # 27 UT # 23
Pass Offense: USC # 65 UT # 64
Pass Defense: USC # 13 UT # 59
This USC play is also a hunch. I watched all but 2 UT games this year and I believe USC will stuff the run and frustrate the freshmen UT QBs into mistakes. If USC's QB wasn't hurt I would load up on them.

Hawaii: Rumors about Timmy Chang association with "game fixers" scare me. However Hawaii has the #2 ranked pass offense and Boise St has the #103 ranked pass defense. That seems worth a small minimal play on a Friday night.

Any constructive criticism would be appreciated.

Thanks, 0

[tinfw17]

How about over 73.5 in the game? These two teams play no defense and will wind up at 4+ hours in length. Boise State averages 44 points per game and will probably be over 50 in this contest. Hawaii can't tackle a retirement community on defense.

While Boise has the nation's longest winning streak, they are a bit overrated this season. They have not been a money maker like in years past. They didn't cover against lowly SMU so I am not sure laying 22 with a bad defense is the best way to go. I live here in Dallas and SMU may be the 2nd worst team in the country behind San Jose State. And Hawaii allowed San Jose State 28 points last week and SMU beat SJS by over 20 points. It was SMU's lone win in its last 19 games. If San Jose State can get 28 at Hawaii, how many can Boise State get on the blue surface. I'd say twice that. I see a 56-35 type of game. 22 points always gives chances of backdoor ****** so I'm leery.

I like S. Carolina alot. Phil Steele gave Miss. State as his SEC Play of the week today.

I also agree about the Sooners as they try to impress the pollsters with a road rout. Missouri and pathetic Penn State ruined a perfect 7-0 Saturday for me last week as Penn State managed TWO SAFETIES and Missouri led Okie State 17-0 at home in the 2nd quarter and didn't score again. My Aggies went into Stillwater just two weeks ago and won 36-20 covering a smaller number than OU needs to cover. A&M led 36-6 before letting up in the 4th period. If OSU cannot run this weekend, they'll get beat by 40 at home.

I just look and saw A&M went from -22 3 hours ago to -25 now at Baylor. I wouldn't touch it even though they always blow out Baylor.

[ez winners]

This is my last play for Saturday....

2 STAR: Texas (-14) OVER COLORADO

The Horns are coming off of an impressive win at Texas Tech last week and will be rolling into this match up. The Buffalos lost a heart breaker last week to the Aggies and might be a bit drained after that overtime loss. I look for Texas to win big here. Colorado does not have the athletes to hand with the Horns on either side of the ball. Texas will pound the Buffalo defense, that is last in the Big 12 in total defense, on the ground just like Oklahoma State did and win this one going away. The Longhorn are also a solid 8-2 against the spread on the road over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points here!

[musclemann]

Re: Play #2...

Originally posted by ez winners
Here is my second play for Saturday.....


3 STAR: OHIO STATE (-6) OVER Penn State

I really like the Buckeyes here against a Penn State team that is just horrible. This horrible team only gets worse when they hit the road as they are 0-3 so far on the road and have only scored a combined 17 points in those games. In fact the Nittany Lions have not won a road game since 11/16/02 when they won at Indiana 58-25. Since then, almost a two year span, Penn State has not scored more than 14 points in any of those road games. To make matter worse for Penn State, starting quarterback Zack Mills is questionable still suffering the effects of a concussion last week against Iowa. Mills backup, Michael Robinson is horrible and if he plays the Ohio State defense will have a field day. On the other side of the ball, Penn State has played pretty well on defense, but I look for the Penn State offense to put their defense in some bad spots by turning the ball over. The Buckeye offense is not the greatest either, but I like Troy Smith at quarterback instead of the injured Justin Zwick. Smith provides a spark to the offense that has been missing for most of the season. Ohio State is 5-0 against the spread in their last five home meetings with Penn State and I look for them to cover the number in this one as well. Lay the points!

If Michael Robinson is horrible, what do you think zack mills is?Have you seen him play qb lately?Its the lesser of two evils with those two.