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When capping this game, I noticed an interesting trend.
This trend is for the TOTAL of this game.
Between the 2 teams combined there has been 11 games. I was looking at the opening and closing TOTAL lines for all their games combined, and how the public moved the total. and i came to this conclusiion.
Denver LINE ATS OVER/UNDER O/U
DATE DAY OPP SCORE S-U OPEN CLOSE MARGIN OPEN CLOSE MARGIN G/T
10/17/04 SUN @OAK 31-3 W -1.5 -2.5 W +25.5 44.0 42.0 U -8.0 G
10/10/04 SUN CAR 20-17 W -5.5 -4.0 L -1.0 38.5 38.0 U -1.0 G
10/03/04 SUN @TB 16-13 W -3.0 -3.0 P 0.0 36.0 34.5 U -5.5 G
09/26/04 SUN SD 23-13 W -10.5 -10.0 P 0.0 45.5 45.5 U -9.5 G
09/19/04 SUN @JAC 6-7 L -3.0 -3.0 L -4.0 40.0 37.5 U -24.5 G
09/12/04 SUN KC 34-24 W -3.0 -3.0 W +7.0 46.0 48.5 O +9.5 G
The public was correct when moving the TOTAL in Broncos games this year 5-0-1. Now look at the Bengals:
Cincinnati LINE ATS OVER/UNDER O/U
DATE DAY OPP SCORE S-U OPEN CLOSE MARGIN OPEN CLOSE MARGIN G/T
10/17/04 SUN @CLE 17-34 L 3.0 3.0 L -14.0 40.0 40.5 O +10.5 G
10/03/04 SUN @PIT 17-28 L 4.0 6.0 L -5.0 38.5 40.0 O +5.0 G
09/26/04 SUN BAL 9-23 L 3.0 1.5 L -12.5 37.0 35.0 U -3.0 G
09/19/04 SUN MIA 16-13 W -3.0 -5.5 L -2.5 40.0 40.5 U -11.5 G
09/12/04 SUN @NYJ 24-31 L 3.5 5.5 L -1.5 37.5 44.5 O +10.5 T
The public correct here 4-1. Combined, the public was 9-1-1 when moving the total in games. So, the total tonight opened at 44, and is currently 43. I liked the Under before I saw this, now I like it more. Taking the UNDER 43 TONIGHT!
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SIDE TREND:
FADE THE PUBLIC WHEN THEY ARE FAVORING A TEAM OVER 75%. IN WEEK 7, THESE WERE THE TEAMS AND PERCENTAGES TO TAKE.
1.CLEVELAND +7.... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 17.91% WINNER ATS (ALMOST SU)
2. JACKSONVILLE +9... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 23.27%, WINNER ATS (SU)
3. MIAMI +5... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 22.59%. WINNER ATS AND (SU)
4. CHICAGO +7... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 20.77%. LOSS ATS
5. ARIZONA +6.5... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 9.60%. WINNER ATS AND (SU)
4-1 FOR WEEK 7 YESTERDAY, WITH 3 OUTRIGHT DOGS WINNING.
PUblic %'s for tonights game:
# 433 9:05pm Broncos vs Bengals (Week 7)(ABC)
Bengals 16.61%
Broncos 83.39%
9201 Bets
The play: Bengals +7 (I may or may not play this. I like the total better. may have a teaser.
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Monday Night Football Stats:
Week#1: green bay +3.5 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL: UNDER
Week #2:
Philadelphia -3 TOTAL: UNDER
Week #3:
Dallas +1.5 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL:OVER
Week#4:
Kansas City +5.5 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL: OVER
Week#5:
Tennessee +3 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL: OVER
Week #6:
St. Louis -6.5 TOTAL: OVER
LAST 4 MNF GAMES HAVE GONE OVER, BUT I FEEL AN UNDER IN THE MAKING BREAKING THE TREND. UNDERDOGS ARE 4-2 ATS WITH ALL OF THEM WINNING SU.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
This trend is for the TOTAL of this game.
Between the 2 teams combined there has been 11 games. I was looking at the opening and closing TOTAL lines for all their games combined, and how the public moved the total. and i came to this conclusiion.
Denver LINE ATS OVER/UNDER O/U
DATE DAY OPP SCORE S-U OPEN CLOSE MARGIN OPEN CLOSE MARGIN G/T
10/17/04 SUN @OAK 31-3 W -1.5 -2.5 W +25.5 44.0 42.0 U -8.0 G
10/10/04 SUN CAR 20-17 W -5.5 -4.0 L -1.0 38.5 38.0 U -1.0 G
10/03/04 SUN @TB 16-13 W -3.0 -3.0 P 0.0 36.0 34.5 U -5.5 G
09/26/04 SUN SD 23-13 W -10.5 -10.0 P 0.0 45.5 45.5 U -9.5 G
09/19/04 SUN @JAC 6-7 L -3.0 -3.0 L -4.0 40.0 37.5 U -24.5 G
09/12/04 SUN KC 34-24 W -3.0 -3.0 W +7.0 46.0 48.5 O +9.5 G
The public was correct when moving the TOTAL in Broncos games this year 5-0-1. Now look at the Bengals:
Cincinnati LINE ATS OVER/UNDER O/U
DATE DAY OPP SCORE S-U OPEN CLOSE MARGIN OPEN CLOSE MARGIN G/T
10/17/04 SUN @CLE 17-34 L 3.0 3.0 L -14.0 40.0 40.5 O +10.5 G
10/03/04 SUN @PIT 17-28 L 4.0 6.0 L -5.0 38.5 40.0 O +5.0 G
09/26/04 SUN BAL 9-23 L 3.0 1.5 L -12.5 37.0 35.0 U -3.0 G
09/19/04 SUN MIA 16-13 W -3.0 -5.5 L -2.5 40.0 40.5 U -11.5 G
09/12/04 SUN @NYJ 24-31 L 3.5 5.5 L -1.5 37.5 44.5 O +10.5 T
The public correct here 4-1. Combined, the public was 9-1-1 when moving the total in games. So, the total tonight opened at 44, and is currently 43. I liked the Under before I saw this, now I like it more. Taking the UNDER 43 TONIGHT!
--------------------------------------------------
SIDE TREND:
FADE THE PUBLIC WHEN THEY ARE FAVORING A TEAM OVER 75%. IN WEEK 7, THESE WERE THE TEAMS AND PERCENTAGES TO TAKE.
1.CLEVELAND +7.... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 17.91% WINNER ATS (ALMOST SU)
2. JACKSONVILLE +9... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 23.27%, WINNER ATS (SU)
3. MIAMI +5... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 22.59%. WINNER ATS AND (SU)
4. CHICAGO +7... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 20.77%. LOSS ATS
5. ARIZONA +6.5... PUBLIC WAS ONLY 9.60%. WINNER ATS AND (SU)
4-1 FOR WEEK 7 YESTERDAY, WITH 3 OUTRIGHT DOGS WINNING.
PUblic %'s for tonights game:
# 433 9:05pm Broncos vs Bengals (Week 7)(ABC)
Bengals 16.61%
Broncos 83.39%
9201 Bets
The play: Bengals +7 (I may or may not play this. I like the total better. may have a teaser.
-------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football Stats:
Week#1: green bay +3.5 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL: UNDER
Week #2:
Philadelphia -3 TOTAL: UNDER
Week #3:
Dallas +1.5 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL:OVER
Week#4:
Kansas City +5.5 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL: OVER
Week#5:
Tennessee +3 (winner ats & SU) TOTAL: OVER
Week #6:
St. Louis -6.5 TOTAL: OVER
LAST 4 MNF GAMES HAVE GONE OVER, BUT I FEEL AN UNDER IN THE MAKING BREAKING THE TREND. UNDERDOGS ARE 4-2 ATS WITH ALL OF THEM WINNING SU.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
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