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Sunday NFL..........
A nice 4-1 day yesterday in college football. Its time to turn this NFL season around, these are my plays.........
3 STAR: KANSAS CITY (-4) OVER Atlanta
The Chiefs are 1-4 and laying 4 points against 5-1 Atlanta? Okay I'll bite on this one, I expected Kansas City to be a 1 or 2 point favorite due to home field advantage, but laying more than a field goal is just begging for Atlanta money. The Falcons are off to a great start, but I still don't think that they are as good as their 5-1 record. Mike Vick is still struggling to learn the West Coast offense and I think the Chief defense can do a pretty good job of keeping the Atlanta offense in check. On the other side of the ball the Falcons are ranked #1 in the league in rushing defense but I see them having trouble with Priest Holmes who ran wild on the Baltimore defense a few weeks ago. I'll take the bait on this one and lay the points!
3 STAR: Detroit (+7) OVER NEW YORK
The Lions were embarrassed at home last week by the Packers, but I expect a much better game from them against the Giants. The Giants have been a surprise after their opening day loss to the Eagles, they have won four straight games, three of them as underdogs including their last win at Dallas two weeks ago. I think the bye week for the Giants came at a bad time and could have slowed down the momentum that they have gained from four straight wins. So far this season, three teams one straight up as a road underdog going into their bye week. Those same three teams were 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their game following their bye. So you see what a momentum killer a bye week can be for a team coming off of a big win. The Giants are also 0-2 against the spread in the last two seasons after their bye week and they are just 1-5 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9 points the last three seasons. The Lions have appeared to turn their road woes around so far this season as they are 2-0 straight up on the road and are actually 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games dating back to last season and this has also been a series dominated by the road team that is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. Big play wide out Roy Williams should be back for this game after sitting out last weeks game against the Packers with an ankle injury to help boost the Lions offense. We know that the Giants will try to control the ball and the clock with Tiki and the running game, but the Lions have not allowed a running back 100 yards yet this season. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Dallas (+3.5) OVER GREEN BAY
Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL match up here as 2-3 Dallas visits 2-4 Green Bay. This series has been all Dallas with the Cowboys going 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread versus the Pack in the last nine meetings and I look for that success to continue in this game. Both of theses teams are in the top ten in passing offense, but the Dallas defense is much better geared to stop the Packers than the Green Bay defense is to stop the Cowboys. The Packers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and only Houston has allowed more passing touchdowns than Green Bay. The Packers are only 13-17 against the spread in their last thirty games as a favorite and Dallas is 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven games against teams with a losing record. Take the points here!
2004 NFL RECORD
10 STAR RECORD 0-1 (-11.0 UNITS)
5 STAR RECORD 2-7-1 (-29.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 4-4-1 (-1.2 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 10-10 (-2.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 6-3 (+2.7 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 22-25-2 (-40.5 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $4050
3 STAR: KANSAS CITY (-4) OVER Atlanta
The Chiefs are 1-4 and laying 4 points against 5-1 Atlanta? Okay I'll bite on this one, I expected Kansas City to be a 1 or 2 point favorite due to home field advantage, but laying more than a field goal is just begging for Atlanta money. The Falcons are off to a great start, but I still don't think that they are as good as their 5-1 record. Mike Vick is still struggling to learn the West Coast offense and I think the Chief defense can do a pretty good job of keeping the Atlanta offense in check. On the other side of the ball the Falcons are ranked #1 in the league in rushing defense but I see them having trouble with Priest Holmes who ran wild on the Baltimore defense a few weeks ago. I'll take the bait on this one and lay the points!
3 STAR: Detroit (+7) OVER NEW YORK
The Lions were embarrassed at home last week by the Packers, but I expect a much better game from them against the Giants. The Giants have been a surprise after their opening day loss to the Eagles, they have won four straight games, three of them as underdogs including their last win at Dallas two weeks ago. I think the bye week for the Giants came at a bad time and could have slowed down the momentum that they have gained from four straight wins. So far this season, three teams one straight up as a road underdog going into their bye week. Those same three teams were 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their game following their bye. So you see what a momentum killer a bye week can be for a team coming off of a big win. The Giants are also 0-2 against the spread in the last two seasons after their bye week and they are just 1-5 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9 points the last three seasons. The Lions have appeared to turn their road woes around so far this season as they are 2-0 straight up on the road and are actually 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games dating back to last season and this has also been a series dominated by the road team that is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. Big play wide out Roy Williams should be back for this game after sitting out last weeks game against the Packers with an ankle injury to help boost the Lions offense. We know that the Giants will try to control the ball and the clock with Tiki and the running game, but the Lions have not allowed a running back 100 yards yet this season. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Dallas (+3.5) OVER GREEN BAY
Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL match up here as 2-3 Dallas visits 2-4 Green Bay. This series has been all Dallas with the Cowboys going 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread versus the Pack in the last nine meetings and I look for that success to continue in this game. Both of theses teams are in the top ten in passing offense, but the Dallas defense is much better geared to stop the Packers than the Green Bay defense is to stop the Cowboys. The Packers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and only Houston has allowed more passing touchdowns than Green Bay. The Packers are only 13-17 against the spread in their last thirty games as a favorite and Dallas is 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven games against teams with a losing record. Take the points here!
2004 NFL RECORD
10 STAR RECORD 0-1 (-11.0 UNITS)
5 STAR RECORD 2-7-1 (-29.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 4-4-1 (-1.2 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 10-10 (-2.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 6-3 (+2.7 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 22-25-2 (-40.5 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $4050
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