Sunday Service Plays Thread

[seaofred]

larry ness

looking for larry ness nfl goy,can anyone find it,please post


seaofred

[txsundevil]

BOB BALFE (Sunday Selections)

Note he is currently under 50% in NFL Plays's

NFL Football
Giants -7 over Lions
Detroit is 2-0 on the road this season, but were rattled last week at home against Green Bay and will be playing a much better Giants ream. Detroit has a lot of young players and it will be interesting to see how they respond after last weeks loss.

Bucs -7 over Bears
Tampa Bay has looked a lot better than their 1-5 record and will be playing a Bears team that is just pathetic on offense. Tampa Bay played excellent against St. Louis on MNF and really should have won that game, but a few turnovers cost them their chance. Look for Tampa to get a big win at home.

Kansas City -3.5 over Atlanta
The Chiefs have struggled this season, but have had a tough schedule. Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place for a dome team in Atlanta to play well in. The Falcons are off to a hot start, but are not as good as their record. Look for KC to get back in the win coloum.

Oakland -3 over New Orleans
The Saints have a lot of talent on their team, but their coaching is pathetic and they probably are the worst team in football this season. Oakland is not far behind them, but should respond at home with a win after last weeks beating by Denver. Look for the Raiders to respond.

Cleveland +7 over Philadelphia
The Browns are 3-0 at home this season and their defense should keep this game close. Jeff Garcia is playing great football and this game is personal for him with the T.O comments. Look for the Browns to play inspired football giving them a shot to knock of the undefeated Eagles.

Seattle/Arizona Over 40.5
Seattle was off to a hot start this season before dropping two straight, but if you look at their schedule you will know why. Arizona is much better than people think and offensively they matchup well against a hurting Seahawk defense. Look for both teams to score plenty making this a high scoring game.

College Football
No plays today.

Good Luck
Bob Balfe
President
BobBalfe.com

[mrktwizrd]

DR BOB

3 Star Selection
***MIAMI 19 St. Louis (-6.0) 16
I can’t believe I lost going against St. Louis on Monday night. Tampa Bay was the better team getting 6 points, but 4 turnovers did them in and one of those was returned for a 93 yards for a Rams’ touchdown. That 28-21 home win over Tampa does not change the fact that the Rams are an average team and that they continue to be overrated. St. Louis does have a good offense (averaging 6.0 yards per play against teams that allow 5.3 yppl on defense), but they have given up 5.7 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense. So, St. Louis is 0.7 yppl better than average offensively and 0.5 yppl worse than average defensive and they rate a bit worse than average overall when you throw in their below average special teams. Miami, meanwhile, isn’t as bad as people think they are and I will go with them again this week after the difference in last week’s 13-20 loss (as a 5 ½ point dog) to the Bills was an interception returned for a touchdown. Miami may have the league’s worst offense (3.9 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.4 yppl), but they also have one of the league’s best defensive units, allowing just 4.3 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense. It’s pretty obvious that the public is blinded by offense, which is why the Rams are overrated and the Dolphins are underrated (no, they are not the worse TEAM in the league, just the worst offense). My math model favors the Rams by just 2 points in this game and they don’t have the characteristics of a team that is likely to cover as a road favorite. In fact, St. Louis qualifies in a negative 95-158-11 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Rams are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite or pick. I realize that taking a winless team might seem like a bad idea, but teams that are 0-5 or worse are actually 80-38-3 ATS as an underdog or pick against teams with a win percentage of .800 or less. The fact that this is a non-division game will make it even tougher for the Rams to take this game seriously and those winless teams are an even better 47-17-2 ATS in non-division games. I have no problem going against the overrated Rams on the road against a good defensive team that will have a good chance of having some success on the road against a bad St. Louis defense. Miami has a very good 59.6% chance of covering at the current line of +6 points and that makes them a 3-Star Best Bet.

Monday 3 Star Selection
***Denver (-6.0) 30 CINCINNATI 13
I tabbed the Bengals as the league’s most overrated team heading into the season and I’ve at least leaned against them every game this season. Despite their 0-5 ATS record, the Bengals are still vastly overrated and my math model favors the Broncos by 17 points in this game. Cincinnati has been below average offensively with Carson Palmer taking over at quarterback this season, averaging just 4.3 yards per play (against teams that allow a combined 4.8 yppl on defense), and that unit will have a tough time generating much against a very good Denver defense that’s yielded only 4.3 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense. While the Bengals are being stalled offensively, their porous defense, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that combine to average just 4.9 yppl, will have no luck stopping an above average Broncos’ attack (5.5 yppl against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl) that appears to be even better with Rueben Droughns installed as their lead running back (he’s gained 369 yards in two starts at 5.4 ypr). I have statistical profile angles that favor both teams (81-42-6 ATS and 60-28-4 ATS on Denver and 215-126-9 ATS on Cincy) and those pretty much cancel each other out. Bad teams usually get killed on Monday nights since the superior opponent is not likely to letdown with the whole league watching, and home teams with a win percentage of .333 or less are just 23-44 ATS on Monday nights since 1980 and only 9-24 ATS as home dogs of 3 points or more (1-13 ATS recently). I’ll take the much better team laying a relatively low number.

Downgrade Denver to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of more than 7 points.

2 Star Selection
**Atlanta 23 KANSAS CITY (-4.0) 19
The Chiefs are 1-4 straight up yet are favored by more than a field goal against a 5-1 Falcons team. While win-loss records are often misleading, and lead to good value going with the team with a worse record, that is certainly not the case here. In fact, the value in this game is on the side of the Falcons. Kansas City is certainly better than a 1-4 team, as I rate them at 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively with WR Eddie Kennison back in the lineup (he missed 2 ½ games and is their best receiver). The Chiefs still have issues defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that average a combined 5.3 yppl on offense), but they are a slightly better than average team overall from the line of scrimmage. However, that still doesn’t justify them being favored by 4 points against a good Falcons team that is only about average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that allow 5.5 yppl), but they’re good on the defensive side of the ball under new coach, and former 49ers’ defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr., allowing just 4.8 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense. While this game is actually pretty even from the line of scrimmage, the Falcons have a huge edge in special teams (+1.6 points to -2.9 points for KC) and my math model favors Atlanta by 4 points in this game. Aside from the line value, it’s usually a good idea to take points from a team with a win percentage of .200 or worse and the Chiefs apply to a 5-39 ATS situation that is based on that premise. It’s also not a wise decision to lay more than 3 points with bad defensive teams, as favorite of more than 3 points are just 34-54-1 ATS if they allow 25 points or more per game (starting with game 4). Kansas City also applies to a decent 109-56-6 ATS statistical profile indicator, but that angle is not nearly as strong as the situation going against the Chiefs in this game. I’ll take 3 points or more with Atlanta in a 2-Star Best Bet.

Downgrade Atlanta to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 3 points.

Strong Opinion
NY GIANTS (-6.5) 24 Detroit 12
Two surprising teams get together here in New York and it is the Giants that will prove to be the real deal while sending the Lions on their way to a losing record with a team that is not as good as their 3-2 record suggests. The Giants are a very good offensive team, averaging 5.8 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combines to allow just 5.1 yppl on defense and that unit should have pretty good success against a Lions’ stop unit that is a bit better than average this season, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.5 yppl on offense. What makes the Lions an overrated team is an offense that has averaged a pathetic 4.2 yppl this season (against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl on defense) and may be without star receiver Roy Williams for a second straight week (questionable with a sprained ankle). The Lions were a sub-par passing team with Williams in their first 4 games and they managed just 3.8 yards per pass play last week without him against a troubled Packers’ secondary that has allowed 6.8 yppp for the season. Quarterback Joey Harrington has averaged a very good 8.7 yards per pass attempt when throwing to Williams and just 5.2 ypa when throwing to the other Lions’ wide receivers, so having Williams makes a big difference to that offense. The Giants are average defensively (5.4 yppl against teams that average 5.4 yppl on offense), but average is good enough to keep the Lions’ poor attack in check, even if Williams does play. My math model favors New York by 9 points with Williams playing for Detroit, and by 11 ½ points if Williams does not play, so there is line value favoring the Giants even if Detroit is at full strength. There are situations going on and against the Giants in this game – a 55-16-1 ATS situation that favors them and a 39-79 ATS home team off a bye angle that goes against them – but the record is a perfect 6-0 ATS when those situations intersect, so the situation favoring New York is much stronger. The Giants haven’t been home in almost a month, so the home fans ought to be fired up to welcome back their heroes today and the G-Men should respond with a comfortable win over a bad team.

Strong Opinion
MINNESOTA (-6.5) 32 Tennessee 20
My math model had the Houston Texans FAVORED by 6 ½ points as a 6 point dog at Tennessee last week and the Titans remain vastly overrated despite losing that game 10-20. Randy Moss probably will sit out this game to rest his tender hamstring, but I’d still favor the Vikings by 12 points mathematically in this game (it would have been 15 points with Moss). The Titans are simply a bad team with a good reputation. Despite having a very good running back in Chris Brown (he’s questionable, but I expect him to play), the Titans have averaged just 5.0 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that combine to allow 5.4 yppl. The Vikings have allowed 6.2 yppl this season, but that’s only because teams are throwing so much against them to try and catch up. Minnesota is not good defending the run (4.9 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.3 ypr), but they aren’t that bad against the pass (6.8 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 6.6 yppp on offense) despite being in prevent defense at the end of most games. The Titans should average around 5 ½ yards per rush, but losing deep threat Justin McCareins (17.3 ypc last year) to free-agency has made it easy for teams to defend Tennessee’s pass attack this season and Steve McNair has averaged a poor 5.4 yppp this season (against teams that allow a combined 6.3 yppp on defense). I like the Vikings’ chances of winning by 7 points or more in this game even if the Titans do put a good number of points on the board, as Minnesota should have no trouble scoring against a bad Titans’ defense that has surrendered 5.9 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.3 yppl on offense. Minnesota is still a good offensive team without Randy Moss, as they showed in the second half of last week’s win over New Orleans. The Vikings have averaged an incredible 7.2 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.6 yppl on defense) and they still have a good rush attack and a better than average pass attack even without Moss, so scoring around 30 points shouldn’t be a huge hurdle against Tennessee’s banged up defense. My deep respect for Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher is the thing that will keep me off the Vikings as a Best Bet, as the Titans have a tendency to show great improvement from this part of the season on during his tenure. Since 1995, the Titans are just 22-28 ATS in their first 5 games of the season, but they are 66-41-2 ATS from game 6 on, including 34-11-1 ATS as an underdog and 38-15-2 ATS in non-division games. The Titans are also 25-9 ATS from game 6 on when they have a losing record (17-4 ATS as a dog or pick). Minnesota does qualify in a very good 55-16-1 ATS situation that plays on very good teams at home after back-to-back games on the road, so the technical analysis is a wash. I’ll consider the Vikings a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Dallas 26 GREEN BAY (-3.5) 23
Both of these teams are struggling this season, but the Packers appear to have more real problems than the Cowboys do and I expect Dallas to rebound from back-to-back home losses with a good outing today. In fact, teams that lose consecutive home games are a decent 91-59-6 ATS as road underdogs of 3 points or more when visiting a team with a win percentage of .750 or lower. A similar 75-34-4 ATS situation applies to the Cowboys also while Green Bay applies to a negative 18-46-1 ATS statistical profile indicator and teams that have allowed 24.5 points or more per game (through at least 3 games) are just 34-54-1 ATS when laying more than 3 points. The Cowboys do qualify in a negative 15-36 ATS situation based on their losing 2 straight as favorites, but that angle doesn’t quite cancel out the favorable situations and the technical analysis favors Dallas by a couple of points. More importantly, the line value favors the Cowboys in this game. Dallas hasn’t actually been that bad this season, as the Cowboys are solidly better than average offensively (5.8 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense) while they are average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense). Green Bay, on the other hand, has been well below average this season, averaging 5.7 yppl on offense (against teams that allow 5.5 yppl) while being horrible defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.2 yppl on offense. The Packers should score a decent number of points, but they’ll have a tough time stopping the Cowboys’ potent attack. The trade of disgruntled receiver Antonio Bryant to the Browns for Quincy Morgan hurts the Cowboys, as Bryant was averaging a very impressive 9.9 yards per pass on the 27 passes thrown to him. The other Cowboys’ receivers average a very good 8.8, but Morgan has averaged a more modest 6.9 ypa with Cleveland. After adjusting for that trade, my math model favors the Cowboys by 1 ½ points in this game and the situations also favor Dallas a bit. I’ll consider the Cowboys a Strong Opinion.

Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 17 Seattle (-6.5) 18
Arizona coach Denny Green has done a nice job of getting this young team to believe and the Cardinals have been pretty competitive this season, with their lone loss of more than 7 points coming against World Champ New England. I expect that Green got a log accomplished during his team’s bye week, as most bad teams tend to come out very focused after their bye while playing with a renewed enthusiasm. In fact, losing teams (after 3 games or more) are an incredible 20-2 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or more following their bye week. Arizona has played pretty well at home the last year and a half, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games with just 3 losses of more than 3 points. Seattle, meanwhile, doesn’t have the statistical characteristics of a team that should succeed as a favorite of more than 4 points, as they qualify in a very negative 44-112-1 ATS statistical profile indicator. Seattle may also have trouble at receiver with Koren Robinson facing a possible suspension (not announced yet as of Wednesday night) and Bobby Engram nursing a sprained ankle (he’s listed as questionable). No wonder the Seahawks wanted to acquire Jerry Rice, but Rice is not even an average wide receiver anymore, as he averaged 7.0 yards per pass thrown to him last season (below average for a wide receiver) and managed just 67 yards on 15 pass thrown to him with Oakland. To put that into perspective, Robinson is averaging a solid 8.1 ypa this year while Engram is at 9.5 ypa on the 21 passes thrown his way. Rice’s numbers will be better with a better quarterback throwing his way, but I expect a drop in Seattle’s pass production without Robinson, and possibly Engram. The thing holding me back from playing this game is the fact that the Seahawks are coming off consecutive losses and apply in a rare 19-4-1 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation that is based on their two recent losses. The angles favoring Arizona are much stronger than the one favoring Seattle and the line is certainly fair, as my ratings favor the Seahawks by just 6 points if Robinson is indeed suspended in this game (5 ½ points if Engram is also out and 6 ½ if Robinson and Engram both play) and Seattle’s defense won’t be as strong without injured star Grant Winstrom. I’ll make Arizona a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion Total
OVER 44 points - NEW ENGLAND (-6.0) 27 NY Jets 26
The Patriots are a different team this season, as they have won their two Super Bowls with a good defense and a serviceable offense that didn’t make a lot of mistakes. This year’s team has a good offense and a mediocre defense that can’t stop the run. That will eventually hurt New England and it could lead to their first loss of the season in this game against a Jets team with a good running back in Curtis Martin to exploit that weakness. The Jets have averaged 4.4 ypr this season despite facing teams that combine to allow just 3.9 ypr on defense, and they will probably crack the 5.0 ypr barrier in this game against a New England defensive front that’s given up 4.3 ypr to teams that combine to average only 3.8 ypr on offense for the season. The Patriots are still a bit better than average defending the pass, but they’ve been a little worse than average defensively overall so far this season, allowing 5.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that combine to average 5.0 yppl on offense. New York not only has a good running back, but they have a quarterback in Chad Pennington that has averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that allow a combined 6.3 yppp on defense). The Jets’ offense is clearly better than the Patriots’ defense, so it will be up to Tom Brady and company to win this game. The Patriots rate the same offensively as the Jets, averaging 5.7 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl, but New York’s defense is much worse than New England’s stop unit, as the Jets have surrendered 5.5 yppl to teams that combine to average only 4.8 yppl on offense for the season. New England is better overall from the line of scrimmage, but the Jets have a 2 points advantage in special teams and my math model favors the Patriots by just 3 points overall. This is the Pats 3rd straight home game, which actually isn’t a good thing for teams that have won the first 2. Perhaps a sense of security creeps in for teams playing at home for a 3rd straight game after winning the first two, as such teams are only 12-30 ATS if favored by 5 points or more. New England also applies to a negative 5-40-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation that went against New York last week in their spread loss to the 49ers. The Patriots do qualify in a decent 109-56-6 ATS statistical profile indicator, but the net sum of the angles favors the Jets a bit and I’ll favor the Jets to cover in this game while making the Over a Strong Opinion in what should be a pretty high scoring game between two good offenses and two sub-par defensive teams (this game has a profitable 56.8% chance of going Over the 44 point total).

[meteor]

regarding JRTIPS

just to follow up on that, these guys claim to be monitored by the nevadasportsmonitor. this outfit is a total fraud who monitor amongst others charliesports and NSA.

stay away from any service monitored by them...or at least if you play them realise that the records are completely falsified.

[ppalma]

does anyone have SCORE today, they had a disappointing 2-2 grand slam parlay yesterday... thanks

[neyland]

SCORE is a complete scam operation. If you want those plays then make sure to get Stu Feiner's and Jack Price's plays also.

[BettorsChat]

Guys,

On services only post their plays and not the actual write ups.

[laxer]

northcoast sunday picks

northcoast:

3.5-kc
3-tampa
3-new england

[mminnit1025]

lenny stevens 20 stars he has been off lately but should be ready to go today

[wizardofoddz]

Phil Steele's Marquee Play 11-4 In The Nfl Indy/jax Over

[Nickelman]

Northcoast

3.5* KC, 3* TB & NE.....................Good Luck:D

[savage1]

Re: Score-If history is any indication as to what these guys will do, that 2-2 record in their advertising will become 3-1 if not 4-0.
Then if you question them about it, they will say that the 2-2 record was not the REAL Grand Slam, that it was lesser parlay, and that the 3-1 or 4-0 was the REAL Slam;that is the best bet on the board!

[LLWM]

Billy Coleman GOY

Paid for and accurate

5* GOY Kansas City -4.0
4* Tenn+6.0
3 Tampa -7
3 Jax +9

Sorry this is so late - you all know the reason - Server

[ChuckLazar]

Anyone have consenses report. Have a feeling ripple can't log in.

[batjag]

Sports Unlimited

5* Jets over 4*Cheifs Ravens Panthers Late Money Raiders
Free Bears Giants over