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By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
When a couple of conference powers slug it out, like Wisconsin and Purdue did
last week, there's often an emotional price to pay the following week.
Sportswriters call it "letdown." Whatever you call it, it's rare when a team can
answer a big game with another huge effort. Because of that, both Wisconsin (vs.
Northwestern) and Purdue (vs. Michigan) look ripe for upsets this week, even
though they're both at home.
Elsewhere we look for Texas Tech to stop Texas, and Texas A&M to continue it's
amazing run. A&M, along with Northwestern and Toledo, are our choice picks this week.
Northwestern +13 over Wisconsin: After winning at Ohio State and at Purdue the
last two weeks, the Badgers are 7-0, atop the Big Ten and ready to take a break.
But there is no break with a tough Northwestern team coming to town. The
Wildcats are coming off of two exciting OT victories, over Indiana and Ohio
State, and quarterback Brett Basanez is having a great season. On top of
everything, Wisconsin's great DE Erasmus James is out, and surprisingly,
Northwestern's great DE, Loren Howard, will be back, after returning to practice
this week. The Wildcats handled Wisconsin 16-7 last year and might be able to
pull off an enormous upset this year, too.
The pick: Northwestern (best bet).
Texas Tech (pick 'em) over Texas: The Red Raiders have had two home games this
year and have scored 70 points in each, clawing both TCU and Nebraska. The last
two years, this series has produced shootouts. Last year, Chance Mock had to
relieve Vince Young late to drive Texas to a 43-40 victory. The year before,
Tech produced a 42-38 upset.
The talk in Austin is over how long Mack Brown will keep Young at QB. Young is
struggling, and Brown revealed last week that Mock has a bad ankle. Tech will
spread the field and test Texas when on offense, and dare Texas to pass when on
defense. With the game being played in Lubbock, at night no less, it seems like
a very tough task for the Longhorns.
The pick: Texas Tech. If the Longhorns get behind, there's no Roy Williams to bail them out.
Missouri -3½ over Oklahoma State: OSU's lopsided loss to Texas A&M last week was
crushing for the Cowboys, who were looking to be undefeated going into next
week's "bedlam" game with Oklahoma. Now they have to go on the road against a
Missouri team that looked surprisingly good at Texas. Oklahoma State also lost
DE Nathan Peterson, who led the team with four sacks, for the season with a knee
injury. If Mizzou wins this, they have a legitimate shot at being the Big 12
North champ. The Tigers have won 10 straight at home, all but one of them by
seven or more.
The pick: Missouri, which will go to school on last week's Texas A&M game plan.
Michigan +4 over Purdue: Purdue is in a position similar to Wisconsin after
playing three gut-wrenching games in a row (Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin).
Now, just when the Boilermakers need to catch their breath, a hot Michigan team
comes in with a hot freshman quarterback, Chad Henne. Even though Michigan's
Mike Hart ran for 235 yards last week at Illinois, look for the Wolverines to
make WR Braylon Edwards their key in the game. It's tough to run against Purdue.
The pick: Michigan, whose timing couldn't be any better.
Iowa +3 over Penn State: Drew Tate has been on fire the last two games for Iowa,
throwing for 671 yards, 4 TDs and only one interception in defeating Michigan
State and Ohio State. In between, Iowa had a week off to get healthy and put in
some new wrinkles. Now on a roll, the Hawkeyes visit a Penn State team that has
struggled to score. After staying in touch with Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin,
the Lions rested last week and perhaps may come back with a new attitude. But
Penn State has lost four of its last five home games against Big Ten teams, with
its only victory coming against Indiana. It just doesn't look like their year.
The pick: Iowa, despite the return of QB/WR Michael Robinson for Penn State.
Texas A&M -19½ over Colorado: The game opened with Texas A&M as a 14-point
favorite and ran up to 20 like a high-flying stock. Still, the Aggies look like
they should be able to easily put away Colorado in College Station. It's been an
amazing transformation for Dennis Franchione's Aggies. After looking so bad
against Utah in the opener, A&M has won five straight after manhandling Oklahoma
State on the road last week. They've won those five by an average score of 34-12
with a defense that has shined, including shutting down Oklahoma State's vaunted
running game.
Colorado comes to town featuring a weak offense, a so-so defense and a
long-range field goal kicker. They're not getting any production from QB Joel
Klatt, and it's doubtful a defense that yielded 42 points (at home) to Oklahoma
State will be able to slow down Reggie McNeal's offense.
The pick: Texas A&M (best bet).
Louisiana Tech -2 over UTEP: The Miners are on a roll for new coach Mike Price.
They've won two huge games in a row (at Fresno and over Hawaii) and also threw a
scare into conference power Boise State. But now they're back on the road,
emotionally spent, playing at one of the toughest places in the conference.
After getting rolled up by Auburn, Miami and Tennessee, you'd never know the
Bulldogs were 3-0 in the tough WAC. One of those wins was as a home underdog
over Fresno. La. Tech is the more experienced team in this type of game, has an
emotional edge here, and a great home field advantage.
The pick: Louisiana Tech.
Houston +6½ over TCU: Last year, while on its run to make the BCS, TCU had to
struggle at Houston, winning a wild one, 62-55. There's a chance we'll see a
game at least in the 40s again. TCU can't stop anybody. They had the famed
bullfighter's "olé" defense against UAB last week and nearly lost to Army.
Houston finally showed up with the team we've been expecting in its tough loss
at Southern Miss two weeks ago. Now with a week off to install even more fun
into a fun offense, Houston will come out firing at TCU and just may have a
little bit better defense.
The pick: Houston.
New Mexico -5 over San Diego State: That was a great come-from-behind victory
for the Lobos last week at UNLV, defeating a team determined to win for its
retiring coach. Now the Lobos have a shot at a bowl game, with a few more wins.
Last week also saw star RB DonTrell Moore return at full speed to gain 141
yards. Remember this was the team that beat Texas Tech earlier this year.
San Diego State, on the other hand, seems to be going the wrong way after
scaring Michigan earlier this year. They've been decimated by injuries and lost
a heartbreaker last week to Colorado State. They also might be peeking ahead to
next week's battle with Utah.
The pick: New Mexico.
Toledo -25½ over Central Michigan: There are two reasons we're interested in
this game. The first is that Toledo, after a slow start this year, now has one
of the most potent offenses in the country. Once again Bruce Gradkowski is
running and throwing the Rockets to easy victories. They've averaged 46 points
in their last five games, with their lowest production coming last week, "only"
scoring 31 against Ohio, which may own the best defense in the MAC.
The other reason is that this is the third game in three weeks for the Chippewas
against three of the toughest teams in their league. Two weeks ago they lost to
Bowling Green by 24. Last week they lost at Northern Ill. 42-10. It's too much
to ask a mediocre team like this to go on the road again against a powerhouse
like Toledo.
The pick: Toledo, going away in the second half (best bet).
Utah -24½ over UNLV: There's no doubt Urban Meyer is doing everything possible
to get a BCS berth for Utah. Now seventh in the BCS standings, his team must win
impressively each week, even though margin of victory is no longer a
consideration. At 2-5, the Rebels would have to win their four remaining games,
three of which are on the road, including this week at Utah, to be bowl
eligible. That is highly unlikely.
But UNLV remains the only stumbling block on Utah's schedule before the year-end
showdown with BYU. The Rebels have the horses to stay with the Utes, at least
for a while, and would love nothing more than to hand retiring coach John
Robinson this upset.
The pick: Pass. Utah should win, but it won't be as easy as it was vs. North Carolina last week. However, given the chance, Utah will run up the score.
Nevada -3 over Tulsa: Nevada is a nice, steady team that plays very well at
home. Last week's surprisingly easy win over Rice was an example. Tulsa is spent
after nearly beating WAC monster Boise State. The Hurricane had a 42-35 lead
late in the game but lost on a last-second field goal. In a 1-5 season, may take
several weeks to rebound from that kind of loss.
The pick: Nevada, comfortably.
Passing thoughts
Beware the double-digit home 'dog: This seems to be the time of the season when
big favorites get disinterested when playing mediocre teams on the road. Maybe
they're just looking forward to their next big game. Regardless, the last three
weeks, home teams getting 10 or more points are 21-5. Last week they were an
amazing 8-0, not counting Michigan State, which dropped from +10 to +9.
If you like this angle you're going to wind up with some teams that have been
doormats. This week's double-digit home 'dogs are: Mississippi State, Ohio,
Western Michigan, Duke, Wake Forest, Tulane and Arizona. Of those, only Ohio
(vs. Bowling Green) and Wake Forest (vs. FSU) figure to be competitive. We'll
keep you informed.
Etc.: Miami should have little trouble keeping N.C. State's feeble offense under
21, but will the Hurricanes be able to get 28 or more against the Wolfpack's
great defense? State coach Chuck Amato used to be an assistant at Florida State
and has learned how to stop them. … Tennessee, with distractions aplenty this
week, might have its hands full with a gritty Alabama team. … Cincinnati has had
two weeks to think about its shocking loss to Army. This is only the Bearcats'
third home game, a place they play much, much better (crushed Miami of Ohio,
lost 30-27 to UAB). And Memphis might be looking ahead to Louisville next. …
Temple, all of a sudden, is playing inspired football and solid defense. The
Owls also defeated Connecticut in their last meeting, two years ago. With UConn
playing inconsistent, it seems that giving Temple 18-plus may be much too
generous. … Georgia, one of the best road teams in the country, travels to
Arkansas to play a team whose quarterback, Matt Jones, will try to play again
with a strained groin injury. Jones is the heart and soul of the Hogs, who have
little chance without him at full strength. … No matter how good Notre Dame
looked against Navy and how bad Boston College looked against Pitt, you've got
to keep in mind that B.C. has won four of the last five meetings, including
three at South Bend. … Southern Miss shouldn't be giving anybody, even East
Carolina, 20 points with QB Dustin Almond again not ready to start. … Boise
State has looked very vulnerable this year, especially against teams that can
pass. UTEP scored 35 against them. Last week Tulsa scored 42 and blew a 7-point
lead late. This week's big match up against Fresno State, however, favors Boise
since Fresno has struggled throwing the ball this year. … Arizona and Illinois,
both big underdogs again, are making quarterback changes. … Both Colorado State
and Washington State are also changing QBs due to injuries.
Last week: 8-5, Season 35-38
Last week's Best Bets: 2-1; Season: 5-14
Special to ESPN Insider
When a couple of conference powers slug it out, like Wisconsin and Purdue did
last week, there's often an emotional price to pay the following week.
Sportswriters call it "letdown." Whatever you call it, it's rare when a team can
answer a big game with another huge effort. Because of that, both Wisconsin (vs.
Northwestern) and Purdue (vs. Michigan) look ripe for upsets this week, even
though they're both at home.
Elsewhere we look for Texas Tech to stop Texas, and Texas A&M to continue it's
amazing run. A&M, along with Northwestern and Toledo, are our choice picks this week.
Northwestern +13 over Wisconsin: After winning at Ohio State and at Purdue the
last two weeks, the Badgers are 7-0, atop the Big Ten and ready to take a break.
But there is no break with a tough Northwestern team coming to town. The
Wildcats are coming off of two exciting OT victories, over Indiana and Ohio
State, and quarterback Brett Basanez is having a great season. On top of
everything, Wisconsin's great DE Erasmus James is out, and surprisingly,
Northwestern's great DE, Loren Howard, will be back, after returning to practice
this week. The Wildcats handled Wisconsin 16-7 last year and might be able to
pull off an enormous upset this year, too.
The pick: Northwestern (best bet).
Texas Tech (pick 'em) over Texas: The Red Raiders have had two home games this
year and have scored 70 points in each, clawing both TCU and Nebraska. The last
two years, this series has produced shootouts. Last year, Chance Mock had to
relieve Vince Young late to drive Texas to a 43-40 victory. The year before,
Tech produced a 42-38 upset.
The talk in Austin is over how long Mack Brown will keep Young at QB. Young is
struggling, and Brown revealed last week that Mock has a bad ankle. Tech will
spread the field and test Texas when on offense, and dare Texas to pass when on
defense. With the game being played in Lubbock, at night no less, it seems like
a very tough task for the Longhorns.
The pick: Texas Tech. If the Longhorns get behind, there's no Roy Williams to bail them out.
Missouri -3½ over Oklahoma State: OSU's lopsided loss to Texas A&M last week was
crushing for the Cowboys, who were looking to be undefeated going into next
week's "bedlam" game with Oklahoma. Now they have to go on the road against a
Missouri team that looked surprisingly good at Texas. Oklahoma State also lost
DE Nathan Peterson, who led the team with four sacks, for the season with a knee
injury. If Mizzou wins this, they have a legitimate shot at being the Big 12
North champ. The Tigers have won 10 straight at home, all but one of them by
seven or more.
The pick: Missouri, which will go to school on last week's Texas A&M game plan.
Michigan +4 over Purdue: Purdue is in a position similar to Wisconsin after
playing three gut-wrenching games in a row (Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin).
Now, just when the Boilermakers need to catch their breath, a hot Michigan team
comes in with a hot freshman quarterback, Chad Henne. Even though Michigan's
Mike Hart ran for 235 yards last week at Illinois, look for the Wolverines to
make WR Braylon Edwards their key in the game. It's tough to run against Purdue.
The pick: Michigan, whose timing couldn't be any better.
Iowa +3 over Penn State: Drew Tate has been on fire the last two games for Iowa,
throwing for 671 yards, 4 TDs and only one interception in defeating Michigan
State and Ohio State. In between, Iowa had a week off to get healthy and put in
some new wrinkles. Now on a roll, the Hawkeyes visit a Penn State team that has
struggled to score. After staying in touch with Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin,
the Lions rested last week and perhaps may come back with a new attitude. But
Penn State has lost four of its last five home games against Big Ten teams, with
its only victory coming against Indiana. It just doesn't look like their year.
The pick: Iowa, despite the return of QB/WR Michael Robinson for Penn State.
Texas A&M -19½ over Colorado: The game opened with Texas A&M as a 14-point
favorite and ran up to 20 like a high-flying stock. Still, the Aggies look like
they should be able to easily put away Colorado in College Station. It's been an
amazing transformation for Dennis Franchione's Aggies. After looking so bad
against Utah in the opener, A&M has won five straight after manhandling Oklahoma
State on the road last week. They've won those five by an average score of 34-12
with a defense that has shined, including shutting down Oklahoma State's vaunted
running game.
Colorado comes to town featuring a weak offense, a so-so defense and a
long-range field goal kicker. They're not getting any production from QB Joel
Klatt, and it's doubtful a defense that yielded 42 points (at home) to Oklahoma
State will be able to slow down Reggie McNeal's offense.
The pick: Texas A&M (best bet).
Louisiana Tech -2 over UTEP: The Miners are on a roll for new coach Mike Price.
They've won two huge games in a row (at Fresno and over Hawaii) and also threw a
scare into conference power Boise State. But now they're back on the road,
emotionally spent, playing at one of the toughest places in the conference.
After getting rolled up by Auburn, Miami and Tennessee, you'd never know the
Bulldogs were 3-0 in the tough WAC. One of those wins was as a home underdog
over Fresno. La. Tech is the more experienced team in this type of game, has an
emotional edge here, and a great home field advantage.
The pick: Louisiana Tech.
Houston +6½ over TCU: Last year, while on its run to make the BCS, TCU had to
struggle at Houston, winning a wild one, 62-55. There's a chance we'll see a
game at least in the 40s again. TCU can't stop anybody. They had the famed
bullfighter's "olé" defense against UAB last week and nearly lost to Army.
Houston finally showed up with the team we've been expecting in its tough loss
at Southern Miss two weeks ago. Now with a week off to install even more fun
into a fun offense, Houston will come out firing at TCU and just may have a
little bit better defense.
The pick: Houston.
New Mexico -5 over San Diego State: That was a great come-from-behind victory
for the Lobos last week at UNLV, defeating a team determined to win for its
retiring coach. Now the Lobos have a shot at a bowl game, with a few more wins.
Last week also saw star RB DonTrell Moore return at full speed to gain 141
yards. Remember this was the team that beat Texas Tech earlier this year.
San Diego State, on the other hand, seems to be going the wrong way after
scaring Michigan earlier this year. They've been decimated by injuries and lost
a heartbreaker last week to Colorado State. They also might be peeking ahead to
next week's battle with Utah.
The pick: New Mexico.
Toledo -25½ over Central Michigan: There are two reasons we're interested in
this game. The first is that Toledo, after a slow start this year, now has one
of the most potent offenses in the country. Once again Bruce Gradkowski is
running and throwing the Rockets to easy victories. They've averaged 46 points
in their last five games, with their lowest production coming last week, "only"
scoring 31 against Ohio, which may own the best defense in the MAC.
The other reason is that this is the third game in three weeks for the Chippewas
against three of the toughest teams in their league. Two weeks ago they lost to
Bowling Green by 24. Last week they lost at Northern Ill. 42-10. It's too much
to ask a mediocre team like this to go on the road again against a powerhouse
like Toledo.
The pick: Toledo, going away in the second half (best bet).
Utah -24½ over UNLV: There's no doubt Urban Meyer is doing everything possible
to get a BCS berth for Utah. Now seventh in the BCS standings, his team must win
impressively each week, even though margin of victory is no longer a
consideration. At 2-5, the Rebels would have to win their four remaining games,
three of which are on the road, including this week at Utah, to be bowl
eligible. That is highly unlikely.
But UNLV remains the only stumbling block on Utah's schedule before the year-end
showdown with BYU. The Rebels have the horses to stay with the Utes, at least
for a while, and would love nothing more than to hand retiring coach John
Robinson this upset.
The pick: Pass. Utah should win, but it won't be as easy as it was vs. North Carolina last week. However, given the chance, Utah will run up the score.
Nevada -3 over Tulsa: Nevada is a nice, steady team that plays very well at
home. Last week's surprisingly easy win over Rice was an example. Tulsa is spent
after nearly beating WAC monster Boise State. The Hurricane had a 42-35 lead
late in the game but lost on a last-second field goal. In a 1-5 season, may take
several weeks to rebound from that kind of loss.
The pick: Nevada, comfortably.
Passing thoughts
Beware the double-digit home 'dog: This seems to be the time of the season when
big favorites get disinterested when playing mediocre teams on the road. Maybe
they're just looking forward to their next big game. Regardless, the last three
weeks, home teams getting 10 or more points are 21-5. Last week they were an
amazing 8-0, not counting Michigan State, which dropped from +10 to +9.
If you like this angle you're going to wind up with some teams that have been
doormats. This week's double-digit home 'dogs are: Mississippi State, Ohio,
Western Michigan, Duke, Wake Forest, Tulane and Arizona. Of those, only Ohio
(vs. Bowling Green) and Wake Forest (vs. FSU) figure to be competitive. We'll
keep you informed.
Etc.: Miami should have little trouble keeping N.C. State's feeble offense under
21, but will the Hurricanes be able to get 28 or more against the Wolfpack's
great defense? State coach Chuck Amato used to be an assistant at Florida State
and has learned how to stop them. … Tennessee, with distractions aplenty this
week, might have its hands full with a gritty Alabama team. … Cincinnati has had
two weeks to think about its shocking loss to Army. This is only the Bearcats'
third home game, a place they play much, much better (crushed Miami of Ohio,
lost 30-27 to UAB). And Memphis might be looking ahead to Louisville next. …
Temple, all of a sudden, is playing inspired football and solid defense. The
Owls also defeated Connecticut in their last meeting, two years ago. With UConn
playing inconsistent, it seems that giving Temple 18-plus may be much too
generous. … Georgia, one of the best road teams in the country, travels to
Arkansas to play a team whose quarterback, Matt Jones, will try to play again
with a strained groin injury. Jones is the heart and soul of the Hogs, who have
little chance without him at full strength. … No matter how good Notre Dame
looked against Navy and how bad Boston College looked against Pitt, you've got
to keep in mind that B.C. has won four of the last five meetings, including
three at South Bend. … Southern Miss shouldn't be giving anybody, even East
Carolina, 20 points with QB Dustin Almond again not ready to start. … Boise
State has looked very vulnerable this year, especially against teams that can
pass. UTEP scored 35 against them. Last week Tulsa scored 42 and blew a 7-point
lead late. This week's big match up against Fresno State, however, favors Boise
since Fresno has struggled throwing the ball this year. … Arizona and Illinois,
both big underdogs again, are making quarterback changes. … Both Colorado State
and Washington State are also changing QBs due to injuries.
Last week: 8-5, Season 35-38
Last week's Best Bets: 2-1; Season: 5-14