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2004 Nfl Formula Iii Tracking

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  • 2004 Nfl Formula Iii Tracking

    dt


    Okay it's time. For the last 2 months I've been promising to track my NFL FORMULA III Picks "LIVE" at the forums.

    To refresh your memory:

    As you know I'm a 24-year handicapping veteran who runs a sports service (uuhhgg...argghh!!). I know, that's TABOO, so we'll skip the promotional crapola in this particular thread since you already know where to go to find my stuff.

    About two months ago I developed 3 new NFL Formulas that I call Formula Three. I want to see how these formulas do individually and also when 2 or more agree. The formulas have never been tested against any data.

    Typically I will test stuff against PAST DATA. This time around I'm doing something that will be both unique and fun. I'm testing my new stuff against VIRGIN DATA "LIVE". Simply put, I will post the plays each week (mid-week) and track the results at the forums.

    Obviously, you wouldn't want to go haywire bet-happy with anything that has never been put to the test. But I "am" expecting positive results from plays listed as Category 3 (out of 5) or higher. It'll also be interesting to see how the plays perform if they "all agree" REGARDLESS of the categorical rating.

    As usual, in addition to breaking down my stuff by categorical strength ratings, I'll also track them Home & Road, Fave & Dog, Division & Non-Division, and all that garbage. As you'll remember, I need 6 games of data from each team to make a play. This week there are only two matchups in which BOTH teams have atleast 6 games under their belt. Of course next week we'll have numbers on ALL NFL GAMES ON THE BOARD. Cool.

    Listed below is the Results Chart that will be updated each week. Above the results chart will be the Week's games along with the Picks from each Formula with its categorical rating (strength) labeled Lev 1-5 (meaning Level 1-5).

    Here goes, and have fun:

    Week Seven Picks:

    Rams @ DOLPHINS: F3Y--Mia Lev 1; F3T--Mia Lev 1; F3P--Mia Lev 1

    Saints @ RAIDERS: F3Y--Oak Lev 2; F3T--Oak Lev 1; F3P--Oak Lev 2




    2004 NFL FORMULA III TRACKING


    1.) FORMULA III-Y


    LEVEL 1 RATING: 0.01-24.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia


    LEVEL 2 RATING: 25.00-49.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Oak


    LEVEL 3 RATING: 50.00-74.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    LEVEL 4 RATING: 75.00-99.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    LEVEL 5 RATING: 100.00>:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-Y:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia
    Oak




    2.) FORMULA III-T


    LEVEL 1 RATING: 0.01-0.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia
    Oak


    LEVEL 2 RATING: 1.00-1.49:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    LEVEL 3 RATING: 1.50-1.99

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    LEVEL 4 RATING: 2.00-2.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    LEVEL 5 RATING: 3.00>:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-T:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia
    Oak




    3.) FORMULA III-P


    LEVEL 1 RATING: 1.00-2.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia


    LEVEL 2 RATING: 3.00-5.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Oak


    LEVEL 3 RATING: 6.00-6.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    LEVEL 4 RATING: 7.00-9.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    LEVEL 5 RATING: 10.00>:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-P:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia
    Oak




    ALL 3 FORMULAS AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia
    Oak


    ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ALL 3 AGREE, NONE OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Mia
    Oak


    ANY 2 AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ANY 2 AGREE, THE 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ANY 2 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER VS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ANY 2 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER VS A LEVEL 2 RATING OR LOWER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ANY 2 AGREE, NONE OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    ANY 2 AGREE, BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 2 RATING OR LOWER VS A LEVEL 3 OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    FY3 + FT3 AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    FY3 + FP3 AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    FT3 + FP3 AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0




    dt

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