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The Bucs need to establish a run game early to prevent the Rams from
coming after QB Brian Griese with a lot of blitzes. If RB Michael Pittman
can control the early going, it will force the Rams to be more
conservative and honest on defense, while ball control will keep the
high-powered Rams' offense on the sideline.
JacksonLook for rookie RB Steven Jackson to start getting more of RB
Marshall Faulk's carries, especially on first and second down. Jackson has
between-the-tackles power, and we could see Faulk's role reduced to almost
a third-down back and receiver out of the backfield. The Bucs are tough to
run on wide and a north/south power run game featuring Jackson fits best.
Opposing offenses tend to play conservative against the Bucs, due to their
lack of explosiveness and inability to score a lot of points. Knowing the
Bucs won't score, teams use a "close to the vest" game plan that stresses
taking care of the ball and limiting mistakes. However, that is not the
Rams' mindset and it will be interesting to see how Mike Martz plays it.
Griese must be more than a caretaker versus the Rams. The Bucs don't have
enough weapons for him just to handoff and manage the game. He must make
some plays in the passing game on his own.
The Bucs are better equipped to match up to the Rams' passing game this
season. With the addition of CB Mario Edwards, they have three solid
corners to match up. That is essential versus the Rams, since their
passing game is matchup driven: They feel their third and fourth receivers
can defeat your nickel and dime corners.
Zone blitz schemes, which are an effective part of the Bucs' defensive
package, especially in their nickel package with Ronde Barber in the slot,
can be impact Marc Bulger negatively. You want to show him the color of
the opposing jersey as quickly as possible without sacrificing bodies in
coverage.
The Rams do a really good job with their extensive use of personnel and
formations. Last week, they used their "Jumbo" package on a number of
snaps, with RT Grant Williams positioned as the TE on the left side of the
formation, and TE Brandon Manumaleuna lined up at RT. They also had Faulk
and Jackson in the backfield together on four snaps. These various
packages force the defense to process a lot of information, and interpret
many different formations and personnel.
The scary thing for opposing defenses right now is the way Bulger is using
his complementary receivers in the passing game. Seattle "game planned"
last week to shut down WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce and they did a
pretty good job of it. However, more faces emerged in the spread offense,
as WRs Dane Looker, Kevin Curtis, Shaun McDonald and TE Brandon
Manumaleuna all contributed big plays. As much as we criticize Mike Martz
for not running the ball, it has to be unbelievably tempting to throw the
ball on every down with so many weapons.
The Bucs can ill afford to trade QB Brad Johnson for two reasons. They
need him as a backup with so many injuries and his salary-cap number is
high and it would cost a lot to get rid of him.
LittleDE Leonard Little is the wild card for the Rams' defense, and the
one player the Bucs' offense must account for, especially in
second-and-long and third-and-long situations. Defensive coordinator Larry
Marmie moves Little around the defense, sometimes standing him up as a LB,
to force offenses to have to find him before the snap. This dictates
adjustments by the offense in the pre-snap phase, and increases the
likelihood of mistakes or missed assignments after the ball is snapped.
By being able to put four-receiver sets on the field, the Rams are seeing
more man coverage than zone. Defenses simply can't compete versus their
precise route running that finds holes in zones, so defenses gamble with
man-to-man coverage. The Rams feel that their No. 3 and No. 4 receivers
are better than the opposing No. 3 and No. 4 cornerbacks, giving them a
big advantage.
The Bucs' linebackers are very active pass defenders and they get good
depth on their zone drops. The Rams will likely use a lot of three-and
five-step drops to get the ball out quickly on underneath crossing routes
to Holt and Bruce. It is imperative that the Bucs' linebackers do a good
job of closing and tackling, as the Rams' receivers and backs do a great
job of making yards after the catch.
The Rams' defensive backs are not great man-to-man cover guys, but they
have good ball skills and close on the ball well. Griese must be careful
to throw the ball with good velocity, because if he throws some floaters
these defensive backs will make him pay for it.
The Rams are quietly starting to use some zone blitzes, where they will
drop a defensive lineman into coverage, a scheme that might lead to an
interception by a rusty Griese.
Defenses are tightening up on the Bucs' offense due to their lack of
vertical threats. It impedes their ability to get anything going on
offense in the run or passing game.
The Bucs are primarily a cover=2 defense with their corners squatting on
the perimeter, keeping receivers in front of them. In this game CBs Barber
and Brian Kelly may step up and play press coverage on the Rams'
receivers. The Rams' passing game relies on timing and the receivers are
much more effective versus "man off" schemes and zone coverage, where they
can run free. The Bucs may look to disrupt their timing with pressure at
the line of scrimmage.
Special Teams
With the Rams' offense having the ability to score from anywhere on the
field quickly, it will be crucial for the Bucs to win the battle of field
position. PT Josh Bidwell has placed 10 of his 29 punts inside the
opponents' 20-yard line and the punt coverage team is doing a good job,
allowing only 7.0 yards per return. The Rams are averaging on 8.8 yards
per punt return and PR Shaun McDonald is averaging 8.8 yards per return.
Matchups
St. Louis LOT Orlando Pace vs. Tampa Bay RDE Simeon Rice
Tampa Bay QB Brian Griese vs. St. Louis SS Adam Archuleta
St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk vs. Tampa Bay OLB Derrick Brooks
Tampa Bay ROT Todd Steussie vs. St. Louis LDE Leonard Little
St. Louis WR Isaac Bruce vs. Tampa Bay LCB Brian Kelly
Prediction: Rams 34, Buccaneers 14
----------------------------
The Bucs need to establish a run game early to prevent the Rams from
coming after QB Brian Griese with a lot of blitzes. If RB Michael Pittman
can control the early going, it will force the Rams to be more
conservative and honest on defense, while ball control will keep the
high-powered Rams' offense on the sideline.
JacksonLook for rookie RB Steven Jackson to start getting more of RB
Marshall Faulk's carries, especially on first and second down. Jackson has
between-the-tackles power, and we could see Faulk's role reduced to almost
a third-down back and receiver out of the backfield. The Bucs are tough to
run on wide and a north/south power run game featuring Jackson fits best.
Opposing offenses tend to play conservative against the Bucs, due to their
lack of explosiveness and inability to score a lot of points. Knowing the
Bucs won't score, teams use a "close to the vest" game plan that stresses
taking care of the ball and limiting mistakes. However, that is not the
Rams' mindset and it will be interesting to see how Mike Martz plays it.
Griese must be more than a caretaker versus the Rams. The Bucs don't have
enough weapons for him just to handoff and manage the game. He must make
some plays in the passing game on his own.
The Bucs are better equipped to match up to the Rams' passing game this
season. With the addition of CB Mario Edwards, they have three solid
corners to match up. That is essential versus the Rams, since their
passing game is matchup driven: They feel their third and fourth receivers
can defeat your nickel and dime corners.
Zone blitz schemes, which are an effective part of the Bucs' defensive
package, especially in their nickel package with Ronde Barber in the slot,
can be impact Marc Bulger negatively. You want to show him the color of
the opposing jersey as quickly as possible without sacrificing bodies in
coverage.
The Rams do a really good job with their extensive use of personnel and
formations. Last week, they used their "Jumbo" package on a number of
snaps, with RT Grant Williams positioned as the TE on the left side of the
formation, and TE Brandon Manumaleuna lined up at RT. They also had Faulk
and Jackson in the backfield together on four snaps. These various
packages force the defense to process a lot of information, and interpret
many different formations and personnel.
The scary thing for opposing defenses right now is the way Bulger is using
his complementary receivers in the passing game. Seattle "game planned"
last week to shut down WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce and they did a
pretty good job of it. However, more faces emerged in the spread offense,
as WRs Dane Looker, Kevin Curtis, Shaun McDonald and TE Brandon
Manumaleuna all contributed big plays. As much as we criticize Mike Martz
for not running the ball, it has to be unbelievably tempting to throw the
ball on every down with so many weapons.
The Bucs can ill afford to trade QB Brad Johnson for two reasons. They
need him as a backup with so many injuries and his salary-cap number is
high and it would cost a lot to get rid of him.
LittleDE Leonard Little is the wild card for the Rams' defense, and the
one player the Bucs' offense must account for, especially in
second-and-long and third-and-long situations. Defensive coordinator Larry
Marmie moves Little around the defense, sometimes standing him up as a LB,
to force offenses to have to find him before the snap. This dictates
adjustments by the offense in the pre-snap phase, and increases the
likelihood of mistakes or missed assignments after the ball is snapped.
By being able to put four-receiver sets on the field, the Rams are seeing
more man coverage than zone. Defenses simply can't compete versus their
precise route running that finds holes in zones, so defenses gamble with
man-to-man coverage. The Rams feel that their No. 3 and No. 4 receivers
are better than the opposing No. 3 and No. 4 cornerbacks, giving them a
big advantage.
The Bucs' linebackers are very active pass defenders and they get good
depth on their zone drops. The Rams will likely use a lot of three-and
five-step drops to get the ball out quickly on underneath crossing routes
to Holt and Bruce. It is imperative that the Bucs' linebackers do a good
job of closing and tackling, as the Rams' receivers and backs do a great
job of making yards after the catch.
The Rams' defensive backs are not great man-to-man cover guys, but they
have good ball skills and close on the ball well. Griese must be careful
to throw the ball with good velocity, because if he throws some floaters
these defensive backs will make him pay for it.
The Rams are quietly starting to use some zone blitzes, where they will
drop a defensive lineman into coverage, a scheme that might lead to an
interception by a rusty Griese.
Defenses are tightening up on the Bucs' offense due to their lack of
vertical threats. It impedes their ability to get anything going on
offense in the run or passing game.
The Bucs are primarily a cover=2 defense with their corners squatting on
the perimeter, keeping receivers in front of them. In this game CBs Barber
and Brian Kelly may step up and play press coverage on the Rams'
receivers. The Rams' passing game relies on timing and the receivers are
much more effective versus "man off" schemes and zone coverage, where they
can run free. The Bucs may look to disrupt their timing with pressure at
the line of scrimmage.
Special Teams
With the Rams' offense having the ability to score from anywhere on the
field quickly, it will be crucial for the Bucs to win the battle of field
position. PT Josh Bidwell has placed 10 of his 29 punts inside the
opponents' 20-yard line and the punt coverage team is doing a good job,
allowing only 7.0 yards per return. The Rams are averaging on 8.8 yards
per punt return and PR Shaun McDonald is averaging 8.8 yards per return.
Matchups
St. Louis LOT Orlando Pace vs. Tampa Bay RDE Simeon Rice
Tampa Bay QB Brian Griese vs. St. Louis SS Adam Archuleta
St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk vs. Tampa Bay OLB Derrick Brooks
Tampa Bay ROT Todd Steussie vs. St. Louis LDE Leonard Little
St. Louis WR Isaac Bruce vs. Tampa Bay LCB Brian Kelly
Prediction: Rams 34, Buccaneers 14
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