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NCAA Football 10/15 and 10/16.........
Off to a nice start this week, cashing in West Virginia on Wednesday and Louisville on Thursday! These are my plays for Friday and Saturday........
Friday
2 STAR: Tcu (+7) OVER ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM
UAB is off to a nice start at 4-1 straight up including a three game against the spread winning streak, but I think this is too many points for them to cover against the Horned Frogs. TCU has a horrible defense, especially against the pass, but the Blazers do not really have an offense that can match scores with the Frogs. UAB is only 76th in the nation in total offense and 69th in the nation in passing offense. Their offense is not really built to take advantage of the miserable TCU secondary that ranks last in division 1 in pass defense. The Frogs do have a very potent passing offense. TCU ranks 20th in the nation in passing offense, and the UAB defense is 93rd in the nation at defending the pass. This game could be a shoot-out like most of the TCU games that are aired on ESPN. Over the past two seasons, ESPN has televised six TCU games nationally. Five of those six games have been decided by three points, with TCU winning four of the five. TCU is also coming off of a bye week, which gave them time to heal some injuries, and they are 6-1 against the spread after their last seven bye weeks. Take the points!
Saturday
3 STAR: NAVY (+7) OVER Notre Dame
Navy is off to a great 5-0 start and they have one of the most athletic teams that they have had in years, so if they are ever going to beat the Irish, this might be the year. In both of Notre Dames losses, they were out rushed by their opponents. They will be out rushed in this game by a Navy triple option attach that averages 267 yards per game. Navy is 5-1 against the spread after a bye week and 9-2 against the spread versus the Irish. Take the points here!
3 STAR: FLORIDA STATE (-3) OVER Virginia
I see many people calling for Virginia to pull off the upset here, but I just don't see it happening. I think this line is way to low. Virginia is a very good team at 5-0 but they have played nobody. Their offense is #6 in the nation in rushing, but again, they have played nobody. The best defense that they faced was the #85 ranked Syracuse defense. FSU has the #10 ranked defense in the nation and they are #3 against the run. I look for them to bottle up the Cavs and running back Wali Lundy. FSU is 6-0 and 4-2 against the spread in the last six meetings with Virginia at Tallahassee. Lay the points here!
3 STAR: North Carolina State (+3)(-$120) OVER MARYLAND
The Wolfpack is coming off of a tough loss against North Carolina last week, but I look for them to break through against a Maryland team that has won four straight close games against State. The Terps offense was bad last week, only managing to score 7 points against Georgia Tech. To make matters worse, the Terps were coming off of a bye week and had extra time to prepare for that game. It does not get any easier this week, as Maryland is up against NC State and they are third in the nation in total defense allowing 226 yards per game. I think the Wolfpack rides that defense to a win here as NC State has won 4 out of the last 6 meetings played at Maryland. The Wolfpack is also a solid 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Take the points!
2 STAR: TEXAS (-13.5) OVER Missouri
Taking the Tigers plus two touchdowns at first looks very tempting, but Missouri has played nobody this season on their way to a 4-1 start, that includes a loss to Troy. The Missouri offense has not been very sharp and neither has Quarterback Brad Smith and I don't expect them to do much in this game against a very good Longhorn defense. The Horns will bounce back strong after last weeks loss to Oklahoma with a big win here. Lay the points.
2 STAR: Hawaii (+3.5) OVER TEXAS - EL PASO
I usually try to stay away from the Warriors when they hit the mainland, but I really like them in this spot. UTEP comes in as the favorite, fresh off of an upset win at Fresno State as a 17 point dog. What better spot for a let down, especially against a Hawaii team that has won 7 out of the last 10 meetings against the Miners. The Warriors have won the last two meetings 31-15 and 31-6 and in those games they were an average of a 24 point favorite, now they are a 3.5 point dog. That's some line value! I don't think UTEP has made that much improvement that warrants a 28 point swing in the line. Take the points here!
2004 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 7-5 (+11.65 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 12-11-1 (-0.60 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 16-12-1 (+5.40 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 11-8 (+2.20 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 46-36-2 (+18.65 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1865.00
Friday
2 STAR: Tcu (+7) OVER ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM
UAB is off to a nice start at 4-1 straight up including a three game against the spread winning streak, but I think this is too many points for them to cover against the Horned Frogs. TCU has a horrible defense, especially against the pass, but the Blazers do not really have an offense that can match scores with the Frogs. UAB is only 76th in the nation in total offense and 69th in the nation in passing offense. Their offense is not really built to take advantage of the miserable TCU secondary that ranks last in division 1 in pass defense. The Frogs do have a very potent passing offense. TCU ranks 20th in the nation in passing offense, and the UAB defense is 93rd in the nation at defending the pass. This game could be a shoot-out like most of the TCU games that are aired on ESPN. Over the past two seasons, ESPN has televised six TCU games nationally. Five of those six games have been decided by three points, with TCU winning four of the five. TCU is also coming off of a bye week, which gave them time to heal some injuries, and they are 6-1 against the spread after their last seven bye weeks. Take the points!
Saturday
3 STAR: NAVY (+7) OVER Notre Dame
Navy is off to a great 5-0 start and they have one of the most athletic teams that they have had in years, so if they are ever going to beat the Irish, this might be the year. In both of Notre Dames losses, they were out rushed by their opponents. They will be out rushed in this game by a Navy triple option attach that averages 267 yards per game. Navy is 5-1 against the spread after a bye week and 9-2 against the spread versus the Irish. Take the points here!
3 STAR: FLORIDA STATE (-3) OVER Virginia
I see many people calling for Virginia to pull off the upset here, but I just don't see it happening. I think this line is way to low. Virginia is a very good team at 5-0 but they have played nobody. Their offense is #6 in the nation in rushing, but again, they have played nobody. The best defense that they faced was the #85 ranked Syracuse defense. FSU has the #10 ranked defense in the nation and they are #3 against the run. I look for them to bottle up the Cavs and running back Wali Lundy. FSU is 6-0 and 4-2 against the spread in the last six meetings with Virginia at Tallahassee. Lay the points here!
3 STAR: North Carolina State (+3)(-$120) OVER MARYLAND
The Wolfpack is coming off of a tough loss against North Carolina last week, but I look for them to break through against a Maryland team that has won four straight close games against State. The Terps offense was bad last week, only managing to score 7 points against Georgia Tech. To make matters worse, the Terps were coming off of a bye week and had extra time to prepare for that game. It does not get any easier this week, as Maryland is up against NC State and they are third in the nation in total defense allowing 226 yards per game. I think the Wolfpack rides that defense to a win here as NC State has won 4 out of the last 6 meetings played at Maryland. The Wolfpack is also a solid 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Take the points!
2 STAR: TEXAS (-13.5) OVER Missouri
Taking the Tigers plus two touchdowns at first looks very tempting, but Missouri has played nobody this season on their way to a 4-1 start, that includes a loss to Troy. The Missouri offense has not been very sharp and neither has Quarterback Brad Smith and I don't expect them to do much in this game against a very good Longhorn defense. The Horns will bounce back strong after last weeks loss to Oklahoma with a big win here. Lay the points.
2 STAR: Hawaii (+3.5) OVER TEXAS - EL PASO
I usually try to stay away from the Warriors when they hit the mainland, but I really like them in this spot. UTEP comes in as the favorite, fresh off of an upset win at Fresno State as a 17 point dog. What better spot for a let down, especially against a Hawaii team that has won 7 out of the last 10 meetings against the Miners. The Warriors have won the last two meetings 31-15 and 31-6 and in those games they were an average of a 24 point favorite, now they are a 3.5 point dog. That's some line value! I don't think UTEP has made that much improvement that warrants a 28 point swing in the line. Take the points here!
2004 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 7-5 (+11.65 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 12-11-1 (-0.60 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 16-12-1 (+5.40 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 11-8 (+2.20 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 46-36-2 (+18.65 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1865.00
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