NFL Plays 10/17

[Nalordo]

Pretty good Sunday, last weekend. Some of my wins were much closer than I would have wanted. Like Minnesota needing to win with a TD not a FG in Overtime, or Baltimore's defense having to account for most of the team's offense. Regardless, I'll take a good week however I can get it.

LOSS - 2 UNITS - OAKLAND +9
WIN - 2 UNITS - NEW YORK +3.5
WIN - 4 UNITS - MINNESOTA -4
LOSS - 1 UNIT - ARIZONA +1
WIN - 4 UNITS - BALMITORE -1
LOSS - 1 UNIT - GREEN BAY -3

Record this week: 3-3
Record to date: 14-14-2
Units this week: +6.00 (Not including vig)
Units to date: +10.00 (Not including vig)

This weekends picks to follow.

[Nalordo]

Seattle Seahawks @
New England (-4)

I'm wary of making this play simply because the Seahawks have been quite a bit better than I believed them to be at the start of the season. That being said, this team is still only one season removed from going winless on the road. Sure, this year they have two road wins (over weak Tampa Bay and erratic New Orleans), but they are playing a team of a completely different caliber this weekend. New England's win streak will probably end pretty soon, but I just don't see this game as being the finisher.

Play: 2 UNITS - NEW ENGLAND -4

Green Bay Packers @
Detroit Lions (-2.5)

I have to make this play. I don't want to make this play, but the odds makers have forced me to do so by making the line about 6 points under what it should be. What the hell? Green Bay has done NOTHING this season. Nothing. They had a must win game on Monday night, and not only did they lose, they got trounced by another team with only one win. Meanwhile, Detroit has exceeded all expectations. The reason I hate to make this play is because I actually think the Packers have a legit shot at winning this game. I still don't rate the Lions as a great team (if you have a shaky QB, you are always in danger of losing). Anyway, I'll make a small play just because the line is ludicrous.

Play: 2 UNITS - DETROIT -2.5

Washington Redskins @
Chicago Bears (-1)

This is the first of two of my plays this week on teams I don't like. The Redskins, as bad as they are, will win this game. They need it. They are not going to have many games this season where the talent level is about even between themselves and the opponent, so they need to win every one they get. Call this more of a hunch bet, but I love it nonetheless.

Play: 5 UNITS - WASHINGTON +1

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) @
Jacksonville Jaguars

My other big play this week. In two quick weeks, the Jaguars have proved my read on them was dead on. They stink. You can only rely on your defense for so much before you're going to start losing games. A decent Chargers team just plain dominated their defense this past weekend. Now, a strong Kansas City offense rolls into town. Call me crazy, but I still believe KC will make a run at the playoffs this season (I don't think they'll actually make it, but will end with a record of 9-7 or so). Sure their defense stinks, but so far, the Jags haven't been able to prove they can score on even the crummiest of defenses.

Play: 5 UNITS - KANSAS CITY -2

Pittsburg Steelers @
Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Here's the other play on a team I don't like. Pittsburg has beaten the murderers row of Oakland, Cleveland, Cinncinnati, and Miami to go 4-1. Dallas, as bad as they are, feeds on this type of game. They're going up against a VERY mediocre team with a rookie QB, they're at home, and most importantly, Bill Parcels is their coach. This is how Dallas made the playoffs last season, by winning all of their games like this one.

Play: 3 UNITS - DALLAS -3

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @
New Orleans Saints

Have I mentioned I hate betting on the Vikings? This is exactly the kind of game that their pillow-soft attitude can cost them. Regardless, this line is off. The Saints should probably be just short of a TD underdog even at home. Make a small play on the Vikings.

Play: 1 UNIT - MINNESOTA -3

[Nalordo]

Increasing the play on Dallas -3 to 5 UNITS. Also adding:

San Diego Chargers @
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)

The line on this started at 5 at pinnacle, shifted to 4.5 and is now 5.5. I'm adding a play on the Chargers here with the points as I think they've got a good shot to win outright.

Play: 2 UNITS - SAN DIEGO +5.5