Newsletters

[frankb03]

Originally posted by Warrior
"Rice is 40-0-1 ATS on games they win SU away from home."

Maybe being an underdog in 99% of their road games could have something to do with that...

*NEVADA +7

dave

Dave, I agree. That stat is f*cking useless. Another Marc Loser Lawrence special.

I wonder when was the last time Rice was a road favorite?

[Warrior]

Tempted to take Nevada on ML....but sure as I do they'll lose by a FG...

dave

[jjoneill]

WARRIOR

been following this GUY warrior. and it seems hes pretty good. i look for his pix. so far so GOOD!!!!!

[WASP]

Any Sports Reporter?

Thanks for any info. guys!

[maxell]

SPORTE REPORTER...



THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14
*MIAMI-FL over LOUISVILLE by 7
Two years ago, the Cardinals came into Tallahassee as 15-point dogs and surprised undefeated
Florida State (26-20). Can they do that to the undefeated Hurricanes Maybe.
Louisville has a two-dimensional offense and two QBs who are better than the plodding
Brock Berlin and they?re a lot better team now than the one that confounded Bobby Bowden
& Co. The Hurricanes have feasted on their opponents mistakes, but the Cardinals are a
healthy +9 in the turnover ratio and are committing less than one turnover per game. Look
for a low scoring game with the big mistake determining the outcome. Miami, 20-13.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 15
*UAB over TCU by 5
The Blazers finally return home after playing three of their last four games on the road and
have revenge on the table against one of the worst defenses in the country. Don?t be fooled
by the Horned Frogs 17-point effort in their previous game against Army before last weeks
bye. Meanwhile, the Blazers (4-1 SU and ATS) have won three straight against teams in their
class since being pummeled 34-7 at Florida State in the game following the Seminoles brutal
OT loss at Miami. A combination of the Frogs D and revenge gives the Blazers their
fourth straight win. UAB, 35-30.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 16
BOSTON COLLEGE over *PITTSBURGH by 7
It took Pittsburgh three quarters to figure out how to get into the end zone against a Temple
team that was missing its best defender because of an in-house suspension. So would
expect struggling Panthers offense to have even more trouble against BC team coming off
a bye, which gives Eagles more time to come up with different looks to confuse inexperienced
QB Tyler Palko. BC has allowed only one opponent (Wake Forest) to rush for over 100
yards, so Pitt could be facing a lot of second-and-longs. Boston College, 20-13.

*RUTGERS over TEMPLE by 9
The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers got some bodies back last Saturday and were able to roar
back from a 27-3 second-half deficit thanks to four Brian Leonard touchdowns and some
shaky refereeing. Temple QB Walter Washington is capable of getting hot (three TD passes in
27-22 loss-but-Midweek Update Best Bet cover against Pittsburgh last week), yet also very
capable of imploding when the defense isn?t playing a prevent. Rutgers, 31-22.

MICHIGAN over *ILLINOIS by 16
Illinois backup Chris Pazan made his first career start at QB last year in the Illini?s 56-14 loss
to the Wolverines, and he could get the nod again here as Jon Beutjer was benched at halftime
last week with Illinois down 23-9 to Michigan State. Of course, Pazan went 5-for-11 for
48 yards with no TDs against MSU, so its not as if he proved he?s the answer. Proverbial
sandwich game for Michigan with Purdue up next, but Wolverines covered Indiana in similar
situation two weeks ago. Michigan, 33-17.

RECOMMENDED
*MICHIGAN STATE over MINNESOTA by 1
Let?s quickly flash back to last season. Minnesota blew a fourth-quarter lead against
hated Michigan right before taking on the Spartans. Sounds familiar, right Well, the
Gophers then hosted Michigan State, and fell behind 17-0 in the first half before rallying.
They also trailed 44-24 in the fourth quarter before scoring two late TDs to make
the game appear closer than it was. MSU can take advantage of Minnesota again. With
the confident Drew Stanton now installed at QB, the Spartans have cut down on their
turnovers, going from a -5 ratio in the first three games to a +1 over the last three.
They dont need to stop the Minnesota ground game, just slow it down a little bit. That
will force first-year QB starter Bryan Cupito to make plays on the road, something he
couldn?t do against Michigan last week (8-for-22). Michigan State, 24-23.

*IOWA over OHIO STATE by 4
Ohio State scored two TDs on special teams in its 19-10 win over the Hawkeyes last season,
and the Buckeyes had no offensive TDs last week against Wisconsin, either. While we dont
expect proud OSU to pack it in just because it started 0-2 SU in the Big 10 for the first time in
12 years, the fact is their current offense scares no one, and QB Justin Zwick is nowhere near
the crunch-time performer that the underrated Craig Krenzel was. But Iowa has problems of
its own, as starting TB Jermelle Lewis is out for the season with a knee injury. Iowa, 20-16.


*GEORGIA TECH over DUKE by 18
Theres revenge and then theres revenge. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have the latter
here following last years 41-17 loss at two-TD underdog Duke and the return last week
of running back P.J. Daniels continues to spark the Techsters here. Daniels ran the ball 26
times for 91 yards in that 20-7 upset as +13.5 road dogs and the GT offense didn?t commit
a single turnover after committing a dozen in its first four games this season. Even last
weeks bye doesnt help the Dookies, who enter this game allowing 31 points per game.

Georgia Tech, 34-16.

NOTRE DAME over NAVY by 6 (at Meadowlands, NJ)
Got burned on this one last season, when the Middies sent South Benders to their knees to
pray against the near-upset. This time, Navy has the added advantage of a bye last week, for
extra prep time in their attempt to kick the door in following 7- and 3-point losses the last
two seasons. And the game is not at Notre Dame, but on FieldTurf in a New Jersey neutral
site, with Tyrone?s Irish roses stuck between fighting off a revenge-seeking visit by his former
school Stanford, and a revenge home date with Boston College. Navy, with no linebackers
over 6?, nevertheless has no fear, a difficult offensive scheme to prepare for, and Notre
Dame may not have an offense that can open up a margin. Notre Dame, 23-17.

TENNESSEE over *MISSISSIPPI by 5
Head coaches David Cutcliffe of Ol? Miss and Philip Fulmer of Tennessee are bonded for life,
having served as Vols? assistants under ****** Majors, with Cutcliffe then a long-time
Fulmer assistant at Tennessee before he accepted the Ol Miss job. But Cutcliffe left prior to
Tennessees appearance in a National Title Game vs. Florida State, and Fulmer was not
pleased. I asked Ole Miss to respect the fact that were playing for a championship. I would
have liked for all that to have been handled differently. Both coaches have stagnant offenses
with two kids not getting done for each what Eli Manning and Casey Clausen got done by
themselves last season, so theyll be looking to smash-mouth the other into submission.
Tennessee, 20-15.

*NEBRASKA over BAYLOR by 23
The Baylor Bears have been clawed in consecutive weeks by bigger and tougher Texas and
Missouri. Nebraska used to reside in that tier of teams with a ?bully? tag, but that was many,
many moons ago. In fact, the Huskers were bullied 70-10 by Texas Tech in last weeks
largest college football point-spread blowout, appropriately the Sports Reporter Super Best
Bet. (Hey, we dont mess around here.) Nebraska allowed seven consecutive TDs in its worst
loss since before Bob Devaney put them on the college football map. But Baylor gets what
little offense it has on the ground, where Nebraskas D still has some bite. Nebraska, 30-7.

*GEORGIA over VANDERBILT by 20
Do the Georgia Bulldogs have enough fight in em? to regroup and still make a run at a BCS
game? No doubt that when the Dawgs write their memoirs from this 2004 season they?d like
to leave out the part about that October 9 game against Tennessee as QB David Greene was
miserable (15-of-34 yards and no TDs against the Vols? zone defense), but smash-mouth
ground game appears to be winning formula and RB Danny Ware is get-it-done guy when it
counts. Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler was razor sharp for most of last weeks 37-34 home loss
against Rutgers as he completed 14-of-18 passes for 260 yards and one touchdown but he?s
lacking a supporting cast. Georgia, 34-14.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
MIAMI-OHIO over *BUFFALO by 19
Bulls have been tougher at home, but now that Josh Betts has settled in as Miami?s QB, the
RedHawks should be able to move the ball very well against this home underdog. Buffalo
coach Jim Hofher has changed QBs on the fly and is now using tandem of Chris Moore and
Datwan Hemingway, but that only means RedHawks now have tape on both of them. Perhaps
Hofher should have unveiled that gambit for this game. Miami-Ohio, 39-20.

*MEMPHIS over TULANE by 22
Green Wave finally showed some offensive life against East Carolina, but doubt Tulane can
carry that over against rested Memphis team that figures to move the ball quite effectively
against them. Memphis limited a much more polished Houston offense to two TDs on this
field. Memphis, 35-13.

*OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 13
The Cowboys are home vs. red-hot A&M (four straight win/****** after opening the year with
a loss at undefeated Utah). The Aggies have a new and improved offense (32.5 PPG) in those
four wins and are seeking revenge for last years four TD loss at home, but this is their second
straight conference road game and Boys (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) have been almost perfect so
far. Oklahoma State, 29-16.

*WESTERN MICHIGAN over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 7
Can?t recommend defenseless Western laying this many points against anyone, and Eastern actually
demonstrated some resilience at Ball State, holding the Cardinals scoreless for the final 20
minutes and rallying from a fourth-quarter deficit. Clock is ticking for Western coach Gary Darnell
and we could be looking to step in against Broncos down the road.Western Michigan, 27-20.

RECOMMENDED
AUBURN* over ARKANSAS by 3
The Razorbacks were lucky to have last week off to get over their second close-butno-
cigar loss to Florida in as many years. This is the Tigers seventh straight game
without a break unless, of course, you want to count last weekend?s 52-7 walkover vs.
Louisiana Tech as a day off. But, the SEC is topsy-turvy what with LSU and Tennessee
playing their worst games of the year and following it up the next week with their best
games, so why can?t a solid team with an excellent coach in a revenge game with
extra prep time do it again Take the road dog in this one. Auburn, 24-21.

*COLORADO over IOWA STATE by 13
Recent history suggests that Colorado is way to go here as Buffaloes have won/covered
last three duels with the I-State Cyclones and note CUs scored 40-plus points in all three of
those Big 12 tilts. However, this years club doesnt have great explosiveness and was downright
miserable in or near the red zone last week in that 42-14 Homecoming Game loss to
Oklahoma State. Colorado, 27-14.

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI over *ALABAMA by 1
That wild and wacky Houston offense sure had the Golden Eagles running around like it was,
to quote old Kansas City Chiefs coach Hank Stram in a Chinese fire drill, didnt it But, the
?Bama offense, despite looking revitalized after rolling up 304 yards on the ground vs.
Kentucky, cant pass a lick with Brodie Croyle on the sidelines, and pass defense is what got
the Eagles in trouble against Houston. Southern Mississippi, 17-16.

*BYU over WYOMING by 4
BYU?s sloppy tackling and so-so running game makes them a shaky favorite and a take-able
underdog when the opponent isnt high-class. Wyoming has thus far been proven to be better
than what the public thought, especially their defense, as evidenced by their holding San
Diego State scoreless in the final 30 minutes. One offensive touchdown for 67 pass attempts
isn?t a good ratio, as BYU demonstrated last Friday. BYU, 20-16.

*OREGON over ARIZONA by 12
This is the second straight away game for the youthful Wildcats, who looked overmatched in
their first road test at UCLA allowing season highs in points, yards and first downs. This
weeks opponent has just as good an offense as the Bruins; In fact Oregon and UCLA are tied
at #15 in the country in total yards (445.6 per game), so a similar ending wouldnt be a surprise.
Oregon, 34-22.

OREGON STATE over *WASHINGTON by 10
Oregon State has had extra time to prepare for the Huskies with the added motivation of
triple revenge and is coming off a pair of beatings by Arizona State and California by a combined
score of 76-21. Thats a tall order for a poor Washington team that could score only 21
points against San Jose State a team allowing 38.2 PPG ? while its staff is in the administration?s
crosshairs . Oregon State, 31-21.


BEST BET
ARIZONA STATE over *USC by 1
This is the Sun Devils first real test of the year and we have a feeling they just might
ace it. They were off last week, while USC went toe-to-toe with the team responsible
for handing them their only loss in the last 26 games. State hasn?t defeated the Trojans
since 1999, which means that Dirk Koetter is 0-3 SU (and 0-3 ATS) against Pete
Carroll, but he?s bringing a much improved defense and, in Andrew Walter, the most
improved signal caller in the country. The Men of Troy went down to the wire for the
second straight time and barely held off California. They were outplayed for most of
the day, their offensive line isnt showing the improvement Pete Carroll was hoping for
and the running game is a sometime thing.Walters maturation and a vastly improved
defense keep the Devils in position to win it in the final stanza. Arizona State, 28-27.


SUPER BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over *KANSAS STATE by 40
What post-Longhorn letdown They EXPECT to beat Texas, and perhaps thats why the
Oklahoma Sooners have covered four of their five after-Texas games during the Bob
Stoops Era and the only game OU didnt cover was still a 21-point win last year versus
four-TD underdog Missouri, a team that can create points with its QB. Dylan Meier
of K-State is nowhere near where Ell Roberson was as a playmaker, and the production
reduction has resulted in three losses already, and 0-4 ATS. Oklahoma is gunning
for shot at national title game (again). Maybe Oklahomas frosh back Adrian Peterson
won?t run for 225 yards as he did last week in 12-0 slam-shut win against Texas, but
remember that the Sooners have some business to conduct here after the Wildcats
whupped em 35-7 in last years Big 12 Championship Game. KSUs Darren Sproles
hasnt come up big since that aforementioned game against Oklahoma last December
and hes silenced here by stiff Okie rush defense that limited Texas Cedric Benson to
92 yards rushing (he entered last weeks game averaging nations best 186.5 yards a
game on the ground). Stoops and crew seem to save their best for Texas, and revenge
games (77-0, 52-9 in their only two 2003 revenge games). Oklahoma, 47-7.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
*FLORIDA STATE over VIRGINIA by 7
There?s lots of growing sentiment to anoint this year?s 5-0 SU Virginia Cavaliers as the now
team in the ACC, but you simply cannot ignore the following facts: Al Grohs club has played
four of its five games home this season and the opponents have hardly been vintage fighting
foes unless you consider the quintet of Temple, North Carolina, Akron, Syracuse and
Clemson to be special we dont. The Cavs have about 48 hours extra prep time for this
Saturday night tilt in Tallahassee but Florida States got momentum following thrill-a-minute
17-13 non-cover win at Syracuse last week. Underrated FSU defense comes into this game
on emotional high after stepping it up to lead the way to a win in the always difficult Carrier
Dome. Florida State, 24-17.

*MARYLAND over N.C. STATE by 4
We must protect this house You just know there are folks getting a chuckle from the commercials
starring Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen these days as the Terrapins come off
their worst home showing in the three-plus year reign of The Fridge.? Friedgen must
address growing QB problems and what he?s got going for him this week is clubs undivided
attention. Same cant be said for NC State crew that thought T.A. McLendon scored go-ahead
TD last week against North Carolina and then watched McLendon lose fumble on goal-line
dive one play later. Maryland, 24-20.
MARSHALL over *KENT STATE by 15
Kent State QB Josh Cribbs played one excellent half last week (the first) and one rotten one
(the second), and it added up to a 20-point loss at Miami-Ohio.Would expect the good Cribbs
to be more in evidence this time around, but Golden Flashes haven?t come close to stopping
Marshall in recent seasons. Marshall, 38-23.

RECOMMENDED
*BOWLING GREEN over BALL STATE by 33
Maybe Ball State thought it was on the road last week when it lost SU at home to
lowly Eastern Michigan. Or more likely, the Cardinals just cant handle the favorites
role. Well, they are back in their preferred mode of an underdog, but theyre also
on the road, where they have lost their three contests by an average of 53-7.
Bowling Green has almost as much firepower as Purdue, Missouri and Toledo, so
another rout should be on the way. Falcons obviously demonstrated against Temple
two weeks ago that they arent afraid to run it up, and Cardinals have displayed no
ability to stop BG?s offense (they lost 41-14 at home to these guys last season).
Only Ohio up next for BG, so no lookahead problems. Bowling Green blanked
Central Michigan in the fourth quarter last week to slam the back door shut in a
38-14 win, so it seems as if Falcons (3-1 ATS) are spread-conscious. Bowling
Green, 40-7.

*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 23
Northern Illinois got careless last week against Central Florida, blowing the cover and almost
the actual game. So want no part of Huskies as big chalk against a Central Michigan team
that can eat some clock with a quality RB. Northern Illinois, 37-14.

BEST BET
*CALIFORNIA over UCLA by 25
We?re just aware as you that the Golden Bears had a tough game at USC last week,
but there are a number of reasons to lay it with them here. Jeff Tedford is 4-0 SU and
ATS in revenge games since coming to Berkeley and this weeks opponent dealt him
a particularly aggravating 23-20 OT loss in Los Angeles two days short of an exact
year ago. The Bears were 2-6 in field goal attempts in that loss, including two blocks
and the potential OT-tying attempt hit the crossbar and bounced away. The Bears are
a much better team now and QB Aaron Rodgers is just one ingredient of a multifaceted
offense that gave a superior defense like the Trojans? all that it wanted. It?s
been five weeks since UCLA faced a better than average offense, and they allowed 31
points at home to Oklahoma State, a team that is content to run the ball 80% of the
time. The Bruins wont know what hit them this week. California, 46-21.

STANFORD over *WASHINGTON STATE by 3
Washington State is a turnover-seeking defense, especially against the pass, and QB Trent
Edwards of Stanford best be careful in his attempts to locate good receivers. Banged-up WSU
Cougars are coming off a bad home loss vs. Oregon in which they surrendered 27 fourthquarter
points. They play fourth home game in last five weeks, but covered only one of the
three with roster way down from last seasons. Stanford, 27-24
.
*PURDUE over WISCONSIN by 4
Wisconsin is a well-coached team that is extremely tough on defense, and pits its big, experienced
offensive line against a new Purdue defensive front that faces its stiffest challenge
of the season. The Badgers dont have as many playmakers on offense as they?ve had in
recent seasons, but Joe Tiller?s offense hasnt overwhelmed Barry Alvarez & Co., averaging
?only? 25 points in the last four meetings. Purdue, 23-19.

*CENTRAL FLORIDA over AKRON by 2
A difficult year for 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS UCF got even tougher when Golden Knights blew late
lead and potential first win against Northern Illinois. But at least they displayed an offense in
the second half. Akron doesnt have much of a defense either, so last team with the ball could
again be the winner. Central Florida, 29-27.

LOUISIANA TECH over *SMU by 7
This was going to all be about Ryan Moats runs left, Ryan Moats goes right but last weeks
first-quarter ankle sprain kayoed kid from Louisiana Tech?s 52-7 loss at Auburn (zero yards
on three carries) and so his status here remains up-in-air at press time. Tech will need every
yard of his 185.6 yards per game average to get past a scrappy, big home dog with revenge.
Louisiana Tech 27-20.

RECOMMENDED
BOISE STATE over *TULSA by 9
Both teams come off bye, so no edge there, right Well, we believe there is an
advantage for home underdog Tulsa. As weve discussed, Tulsa (1-3 ATS) has been
struggling in the early going despite returning much of its starting personnel from
last season. The problem is that opponents have now had an entire off-season to go
to school on the schemes of second-year Tulsa coach Steve Kragthorpe. Well, now
he has a week to adjust to all the adjustments, and gets to face a Boise defense that
has plenty of holes. Consider that BYU passed for 390 yards against the Broncos,
and it wasnt as if it was garbage yardage, because that game was close most of
the way. Weve also told you how Boise is straining to cover bloated numbers
because the betting bandwagon has gotten so large. They also are at a motivational
disadvantage, as the Bronco players may have spent part of their bye week thinking
about upcoming opponent Fresno State, the team they will face next week. Take
the points. Boise State, 32-23.

*UNLV over NEW MEXICO by 6
As head coach John Robinson told everyone, UNLV would improve as the season progressed,
and it has coincided with his retirement announcement. The Rebs didnt allow BYU to score
go-ahead TD despite fact Cougars had a first-and-goal late and now momentum carries over
against a New Mexico team that scored two TDs on Air Force punt mishaps last week in 28-
23 Falcons win/cover, in which starting QB did not play due to effects of a concussion. The
Lobos defense did hold AF to five three-and-outs in the second half, but when does this UNM
stop unit ever play a full 60-minute game UNLV, 26-20.

RECOMMENDED
SOUTH CAROLINA over *KENTUCKY by 18
Backers of South Carolina suffered a grueling ATS loss last year when the Gamecocks
surrendered a pair of fourth quarter TDs and the Wildcats (getting eight) stole the
money in a 27-20 loss/cover. Carolina knocked former Kentucky QB senseless at the
end of the third quarter and in came current QB Shane Boyd to run an option offense,
one Lou Holtz obviously had not game planned for. A year later and a year wiser now,
the tough Gamecocks? defense is sure to adopt the Who?s, ?We Won?t Get Fooled
Again?, rock and roll philosophy. After last weeks shocking loss to mediocre
Mississippi, maybe the Beatles, Help would be more appropriate. If Holtz follows
Alabama?s game plan and runs the ball down the Wildcats? throat, he?ll get just as satisfying
a win as Mike Shula did last week and Shula did it without a quarterback. South
Carolina, 28-10.

*TEXAS over MISSOURI by 17
The Longhorns are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after their last four losses to the Sooners. Only two
of the five teams that the Tigers have amassed a 4-1 record against (3-1-1 ATS) are over
.500 SU; Two of those five opponents play in the Sun Belt and another resides in the MAC.
Texas, 34-17.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
*TOLEDO over OHIO by 9
These teams have played only once in the past seven seasons. That was in 2002, when
Toledo won a 48-41 game against a Bobcats team that was run-first, ask-questions later at
that time. Since then, Ohio has switched to a much more balanced attack and has covered
its last three heading into this one. Could be a bit of a trap, at least ATS-wise, for the Rockets.
Toledo, 30-21.

*SOUTH FLORIDA over ARMY by 17
The Cadets have definitely shown improvement under Bobby Ross but lets face it, they have
a long journey ahead just to reach mediocrity. The Bulls were off last week and have yet to
win home. South Florida, 31-14.

HAWAII over *UTEP by 1
The Fighting Rainbows dont do too much scuffling on the road having gone 1-7 ATS in their
last eight trips to the mainland. The question is whether the Miners are capable of playing
well for the third straight week after bettering the spread by 38 points and 21 points the
last two Saturdays. With triple revenge on the table, wouldnt say that the answer is no.
Hawaii, 27-26.

RICE over *NEVADA by 10
Who can forget last years 52-42 Rice win/cover against 5.5-point fav Nevada as Owls
rushed for 387 yards and still lost clock?! Rice, 34-24.


RECOMMENDED
*UTAH over NORTH CAROLINA by 26
Talk about your great scheduling! The Utah Utes haven?t played since a 28-7
win/cover against +10 home underdog New Mexico on October 1. Plenty of film
study and plenty of practice time will have Urban Meyers guys geeked for North
Carolina club in the potential letdown spot after getting revenge of their Young Adult
lifetime in 30-24 nail-biter vs. NC State, with all the home celebration that comes
with the territory. Utah enters with electric 14-3 ATS record since Meyers arrival
on the scene prior to the start of last year and this club is big, plays hard, plays
smart and has a plan. The best plan is making sure QB Alex Smith has options and
you can expect his run/pass yardage totals here to be nearing 400 yards in expected
blowout win against Tar Heels team that may just have saved head coach John
Bunting?s job. Utah continues to eyeball BCS-buster status in the days and weeks
ahead. Utah, 42-16.

*SAN DIEGO STATE over COLORADO STATE by 4
Sonny, once so true, is now blue. CSU Rams are an atypical 1-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in Mr.
Lubicks 12th season and when his guys beat San Diego State 21-6 last year, it was with
big plays a 35-yard interception return for a touchdown, a 67-yard pass play and a 42-
yard scoring run ? near the end of the season, when San Diego State was a real
M*A*S*H unit and had just lost their top running back the prior week. Lubick and
Company hoping this is the start of something big, but hopes don?t cover all the bases.
San Diego State, 24-20.

*CLEMSON over UTAH STATE by 20
After three conference losses already, the season?s officially shot for Clemson kids who
are money-burning 0-5 ATS thus far to go along with shabby 1-4 SU mark, as the university
gets a low return rate on the investment they made on Tommy Bowden?s latest contract.
Clemson, 37-17.

*UL-MONROE over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 7
It should be noted that in FIUs first board game two weeks ago, it was tied with UL-Lafayette
before ULL scored twice in last 25 seconds for the cover. Monrovians did nice job, however,
holding Idaho to 14 points and 293 yards of offense. UL-Monroe, 29-22.

UL-LAFAYETTE over *IDAHO by 2
Professional sports handicappers know exactly what to do when a team like the Lafalots
plays a third straight road game as a favorite or small underdog off two prior wins: Either
draw a circle around the home team like eventual betting-winner Penn State plus the
points vs. third-straight-road off two-wins Purdue last week or don?t play the game. Any
other thoughts, ideas or comparisons are just over-analysis when the handbook is already
telling you how to proceed. UL-Lafayette, 26-24.

TROY STATE over *ARKANSAS STATE by 8
The Trojans from Alabama, coming off their most impressive win, a (49-21) rout of Utah State
on October 2, probably did not want a bye last week. Now Troy has to beat the improving
Indians on their field, a team finally coming off the road after three straight road games (five
road games in their first six contests). And, the Indians lost their only home game so theyll
be even more determined. Troy State, 31-23.

*FLORIDA over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 32
After beating Arkansas State in a conference home game, with another Sun Belt home
game on deck, this is the last place Middle Tennessee players need to be. It?s always
easier to coach a good team coming off a loss, and losing to fellow SEC side LSU, when
LSU was the revenge-seeking team, was not really a negative for Zookies talented
Gators, whose second-stringers get the opportunity to ?go hard? in the second half.
FLORIDA, 39-7


SPORTS REPORTER
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 17

*BUFFALO over MIAMI by 11
Take two lousy offenses from last year, add some stale 2004 seasonings, stir lightly, and poof!:Instant cream-puff match-up of 0-4 at 0-5, with only 33% point-spread ****** between them,all three by hairs. Funny thing about intra-division NFL games this season. In the NFC, they haveplayed out to 12-3 ATS for the underdog. But in the AFC, the favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in division
games. Favored Buffalo (only in the NFL can you be favored when 0-4 SU) will be grinding itsrusty double-revenge ax during the week, but the real ax should be swung at Bills GM TomDonahoe, who bit on Drew Bledsoe when New England cast him into the trade waters a fewyears ago, changed coaches in the off-season to try to jump-start his stagnation creation, and
is now running out of alleyways in which to hide as the offense now averages 12.7 points pergame, down from last seasons 15.3 output that got Greg Williams fired while Donahoe kept hisjob. If the points do not finally materialize against a sad-sack visitor that now has two lousy
quarterbacks at less than 100% health, then they aint comin? at all. BUFFALO, 20-9

*NY JETS over SAN FRANCISCO by 14
NFL Home Favorites of ?6.5 or higher were 1-9 ATS going into last weekend, then went 2-3ATS on Sunday for 3-12 ATS overall after five weeks. Coming off a pair of more importantAFC East games, the Jets are unlikely to abuse the body of key-man RB Curtis Martin, notwith a look-ahead to yet another ultra-large division showdown, a double-revenge spot atfellow unbeaten New England. All home games are a priority in the NFL, but lousy road teams
do not always lay down. Besides a shaky secondary, the 49ers have a banged-up defensivefront, and now the loss of rush linebacker Julian Peterson really suggests that they areunlikely to put a rush on the Golden Chad. So, Mr. Pennington and his high-percentage passing
game will probably take center stage so that New England will have to prepared for anythingand everything the Jets have in their beefed-up 2004 arsenal. But the 49ers have nothing
to lose and will have no problem flinging it around themselves, hoping for the best goinginto their bye-week. Whether it falls into their own guys hands or the Jets defenders handswill determine who ****** the big number.
NY JETS, 34-20.

*NEW ENGLAND over SEATTLE by 5
The Rams exposed a chink in the Seahawks defensive amour last week. Marc Bulger led hiseam to the win by utilizing his secondary receivers and his accuracy to mount a comebackand OT victory. That sounds suspiciously similar to Tom Bradys M.O.?spread the ball, usemultiple looks, be accurate, don?t make mistakes. However, Brady is even better than Bulger,
with a better supporting cast and a championship defense to back him up, so the Pats shouldbe able to have similar success. Seattle will be traveling to the East Coast for a non-conferenceroad game sandwiched between two NFC West games, giving this contest the leastmeaning of those three. There is not much familiarity between these teams, who have notmet since 1993, but they are rather comparable in many categories. Both are well balanced
on both sides of the ball but New England has an edge in the clutch factor. Seattle faltered in its first test against an elite offense and must prove they should be considered as a Super
Bowl contendernot an easy task to accomplish going into Foxboro attempting to end anNFL-record consecutive win streak. NEW ENGLAND 27-22

*PHILADELPHIA over CAROLINA by 5
Big favorites off bye weeks can sometimes be flat, although the Eagles have a little somethingcalled NFC Title Game revenge in their intangible check-box to help maintain their 4-0SU and ATS edge. That edge, however, was not too large as far as the point-spread was concerned,as three of the four ****** could have been busted by one score, including 1- and3-pointers vs. Chicago and New York. Coming off three straight wins and ****** against whatwere injury-riddled, 2003 NFC Central also-rans, the Eagles appear to be rolling to many,beatable to a few. The fickled finger of fate has touched off a domino-injury situation in theirbackfield, with FB Tim Ritchie the latest long-term casualty. This leaves head coach AndyReid in a body-management situation with Brian Westbrook, who Carolina?s one-gappers canprobably contain well enough anyway, which would foil the plans of chalk-players seeking tohang their hat on the obvious Westbrook was injured when Carolina beat em last year,angle. If the Panthers can run, run, run and avoid situations in which Philly can blitz, blitz,
blitz without fear, then theyll be there at the finish. PHILADELPHIA, 24-19.

RECOMMENDED
CINCINNATI over *CLEVELAND by 6
Some teams are like an old girlfriend. She breaks your heart, but you still come backto her, hoping shes changed with time. The Bengals are that team. Coming off of abye week and a string of disappointing performances that have led to an 0-4 ATSrecord, Cincinnati has a chance to gang up on the Browns as they come off a road lossin Pittsburgh to face another AFC North rival. Starvin? Marvin will have the extra timefor this one and he will use it to formulate a game plan to eliminate the mistakes that
have characterized Cincinnatis play. Cincys defense will be a question mark. DEJustin Smith was arrested for DUI last week and could be facingdisciplinary actionand his possible absence will do nothing to help the last-ranked rush defense.However, Clevelands situation is beginning to look much worse and their injury problemshould offset the Bengals weaknesses. The Browns rank 31st in yards per play(4.5) and third-down conversion rate (25.5%) before last week?s game and they didlittle to improve on those numbers against the Steelers. CINCINNATI, 22-16.

*DETROIT over GREEN BAY by 2
While it is still unknown what effect the McKenzie trade will have in the Packer locker room,we do know they have been diminished talent-wise, weakening an already-struggling secondary.They will also be playing off a short week after Monday?s match up with Tennessee.The Packers went into the Motor City favored by 7.5 points last year and came away with a
22-14 loss (and that was with a healthy Favre). Favre?s health is questionable and though hewill start as long as he can stand up, his effectiveness has been limited recently, leading to a1-3 ATS record. Green Bay has a ?5 TO ration in the last two games and the banged-up Favre
will be on the road facing a divisional rival with a defense that has a +9 TO ratio and sackedthe quick Mike Vick six times last week. One would have to favor Green Bay in a shootout, butdon?t expect that to happen. The Lions showed signs of improvement last week, gaining a season-high 101 yards rushing as a team despite battling injuries to the entire starting backfield.
The Midweek Update may yield more clues on this game. DETROIT, 23-21.

NFL FOOTBALL
BEST BET
WASHINGTON over *CHICAGO by 14
Redskins defensive coordinator Greg Blache, who works in tandem with assistanthead coach and defensive specialist Greg Williams, has been awaiting this circleddate on his career calendar, as Once and Future King Joe Gibbs calls upon him toearn an extra stripe by spilling his intimate knowledge of the personnel on theBears, whose defense he coordinated for the last four seasons prior to being let goto make way for the Lovie Smith Show. Although the Chicago defensive system isdifferent under the new head coach, Blache would know better than most who canreally play it and who cant, how to best exploit the existing weaknesses, and hemay even have some input on the offensive players his ex-guys went up against in
practice. Lovie is currently handcuffed with Jonathan Quinn at QB and injuries in hissecondary, giving Redskins QB Mark Brunell an edge in game experience in thehead-to-head match-up behind center, and more opportunities to make playsagainst the Chicago secondary than Quinn will have to make against the WashingtonDBs. One of the reasons for that is that the Redskins solid run defense can probablyforce many 3-and-outs, giving Clinton Portis the opportunity to melt downLovie?s run-to-the-football defenders before Brunell delivers a few left-handed KOpunches. WASHINGTON, 23-9.

*TENNESSEE over HOUSTON by 3
The team with what appears to be problems of a Titanian proportion, about whom headcoach Jeff Fisher has said, Nobody makes any plays, comes off a short week after theMonday Nighter at Green Bay. Tennessee takes to the home field for the first time in threeweeks, but does so against an opponent that has double-revenge incentive and a bad tasteto wash from their mouths after trailing nearly all the way on their home field vs. the Vikingslast Sunday. Big preparation difference for this weeks Houston opponent, with the Titans offa short week after the Vikings had the advantage of two weeks to figure out how to overcometheir offensive injuries. The Houstonians are averaging only 3.5 yards per carry withDomanick Davis and Jonathan Wells, but the Titans were yielding an astonishing 5.5 yardsper carry going into the Monday Night game and Dom Capers and staff will be camped outin front of the TV with the Cheet-Os and Diet Coke, watching and looking for those weak
spots. TENNESSEE, 23-20.

RECOMMENDED
SAN DIEGO over *ATLANTA by 2
?Linebackers are the strength of this team,? says Chargers? boss Marty
Coachenheimer, whose new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips happens to havebeen the Atlanta defensive coordinator last season (Hey, I KNOW those guys!).Michael Vick isnt the biggest threat to beat a team up top. With a multi-game gamelead in the NFC South, and this being the first of three consecutive Falconian non-conferencegames, the Vickster isnt as big a threat to beat em with his legs as he normallywould be, not against an unfamiliar 3-4 alignment that he rarely practicedagainst when Phillips was the only NFC defensive coordinator employing it as Atlantasbase defense last season. Meanwhile, new Atlanta head coach Jim Mora, Jr. wants to blitz opposing offenses from pre-game warmups to post-game showers. But when
LaDainian Tomlinson is gaining 5 or 6 yards on first down, eventually creating fewerthird-and-longs for San Diego, the blitz stays in Atlantas back pocket, and theChargers are in a position to make fewer mistakes at one of their biggest non-AFCWest road prices in Herr Martys tenure. SAN DIEGO, 21-19.

KANSAS CITY over *JACKSONVILLE by 3
You have the Chiefs fresh off a bye week, and Yahoo Jack?s Jags coming off a long trip toSan Diego, a sloppy jaunt that followed a pair of hair-on-fire AFC South games againstTennessee and Indianapolis, rivals that Jacksonville needs to leapfrog in order to play mor than just 16 games this season. Being as unprepared for San Diego as they were makes theJags a little hard to like against a team that has the edge of two weeks to prepare, and is inmake-up mode after their 1-3 start. Jacksonville was ?3 in turnovers last week and althoughthey are no guarantee to do it again, their QB is still young Mr. Leftwich, and KC is still essentiallythe same system that led the AFC in Turnover Ratio last season. KANSAS CITY, 24-21

*DALLAS over PITTSBURGH by 4
Both sides are off hard-fought games vs. intra-division rivals, but with the Steelers actuallyoff two of those types, both wins, and the Cowboys off a loss, the mental edge goes to Dallasand Mr. Bill, who has always said that it is easier to coach a team coming off a loss. TheSteelers also used up a surprise factor after Ben Roethlisberger actually ran for yards andpoints in the win against Cleveland. The kid has earned the full spelling of his last name aftera 3-0 SU and ATS start to his NFL career, but the deck is stacked against him in a non-conferenceroad game against an opponent that can and will throw downfield, unlike the Miamand Cleveland teams the Steelers have counted among their four wins. It is something Bill Cowhers leash may not allow his QB to do, and Roethlisbergers inexperience may not allow
him to do well enough when presented with the opportunity. But youre always worried aboutgoing against Pittsburgh with that added Duce Staleydimension making a better situationalplayer out of Jerome Bettis. DALLAS, 24-20.

BEST BET
DENVER over *OAKLAND by 14
The difference between these two teams is pretty stark, with the Broncos owning virtuallyevery advantage that matters. Denver is a team led by a long-time coach runninga well developed system that has consistently produced disciplined players andstrong defense, while Oakland is reeling under its first-year coach attempting toestablish a new system while battling injuries and using a struggling backup quarterbackKerry Collins, Real Man of Genius ? with whom bettors are now 3-11-1 ATSsince last season. Mike Shanahan?s boys run a ball-and-clock control offense and theirhigh level of discipline means they don?t turn the ball over or make stupid mistakes?qualities you want a team youre betting on to have. Playing ball-control alsoallows the Broncos to keep their defense well rested and more effective for 60 minutes.Discipline is not a word in the Raider dictionary. They are the most-penalizedteam in the league (adding eight more versus Indy) and have been undressed by two
lower-end defenses in the last two weeks. Collins has shown no ability to pick upblitzes in his two starts thus far, tossing six picks, and the team that released him isnow 4-1 ATS this season. This game has added significance for the Broncos, who canhelp solidify their playoff status early on with a win by earning victories over each ofits divisional rivals. DENVER, 27-13.

RECOMMENDED
*NEW ORLEANS over MINNESOTA by 5
Desperation, thy name is New Orleans! The Haslett-beens allowed Brian Griese to comeout of mothballs and beat them last Sunday on their home field, but that winless TampaBay team was desperate and the immature Vikings will not feel the same way. There is aton of talent wearing white and purple, but the type of mistake-free football that led to lastweek?s W is a week-to-week guessing-game with these guys and this time Mike Tice
doesnt have the benefit of last Sundays advantage, which was an extra week to prepare the only time he has a coaching edge against anyone in the NFL. Not only are the Saintsan NFL-rarity home-dome underdog, but the Vikings are in the negative-expectation situationof being favored off an overtime win. (See chalk-playing Northwestern and NC State backers cursing themselves after last weekend?s college results.) For the Vikings, RB
Onterrio Smith is still definitely out and RB Michael Bennett is probably still out. The Saintshave a games worth of Mewelde Moore as Minnesota featured back to study, and theirpeople should be in enough proper places to limit his effectiveness. Hopefully, the Saintstrainer can get both Deuce McAllister and Aaron Brooks to take extra pre-game doses ofcough-up medicine. NEW ORLEANS, 28-23.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 18
*ST. LOUIS over TAMPA BAY by 3
Favored off an OT win Thats what the Rams are, and you know where Sports Reporter likesto stand in that situation. On the other side, no matter who it is. Whether the head coach hasbeen Tony Dungy or Jon Gruden, the Bucs have had the Rams number for a while now. Evenwhen Shaun King was quarterbacking Tampa Bay in the 1999 NFC Championship Game vs.Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show on Turf, Bucs backers got the money vs.the spread and the streaks within the match-up are now 4-0 ATS, 3-0 SU for Tampa Bay. With the MartzBrothers currently on a 9-17 ATS run as favorites, including 6-10 ATS in the Edward JonesHome, and allowing the second-highest pass completion rate in the NFC (64%), they certainly
give people reasons not to be wary of Tampa Bay starting either Brian Griese or ChrisSimms on the road. This relatively raw meat that Tampa Bay is propping up behind centerisnt necessarily something that the shaky St. Louis defense is capable of pouncing upon andsinking their teeth into. However, if the St. Louis defensive coordinator wants to stay in the NFL after this gig, then hed better find a way to contain the down Tampa Bay offense in his
own noisy dome, while Bulger and the Rams? offense struggle to overcome what Tampa Baydefensive coordinator Monte Kiffen and crew have shut down in the recent meetings. ST.LOUIS, 16-13.

[maxell]

NELLYS SPORTSWIRE
GREEN SHEET...

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
BOSTON COLLEGE (-7) over Pittsburgh Rating: 5
TEXAS (-14) over Missouri Rating: 4
MICHIGAN STATE (+9) over Minnesota Rating: 3
ILLINOIS (+17½) over Michigan Rating: 2
USC (-11) over Arizona State Rating: 2
UAB (-6) over Tcu Rating: 1
SO MISS (+7) over Alabama Rating: 1
All times are Central. Home team in Caps

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2004
West Virginia (-6½) CONNECTICUT 6:30 pm
A rare Wednesday night game in the Big East finds West Virginiahoping to make the most of a season that no longer has theprospect of perfection. Connecticut will look to make a bigstatement in their first Big East season by knocking off theoverwhelming conference favorites. The Huskies have beenimpressive in their last two home games but face a Mountaineerssquad that has covered in eight consecutive conference roadgames. UConn has won eight home games in a row S/U and cankeep close against a still overrated WVU team. WV BY 6

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2004
MIAMI, FL (-9½) Louisville 6:30 pm
Memories of the upset of Florida St two years ago loom large forthe Cardinals and that will not go unnoticed by Miami. Despitemissing the attention that USC and Oklahoma have received theCanes are still undefeated and will play one more non-conferencegame before enduring the full ACC slate. Louisville is an offensive juggernaut putting up an average of over 500 yards per game witha nearly equal run/pass balance. Although the schedule has not
been threatening, Louisville has allowed just four TDs this season,winning by at least 28 points in all four games. Miami knows this is a make or break game for their opponent, but the Canes havestruggled on Thursdays, just 2-5 ATS. MIAMI BY 7

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2004
UAB (-6) Tcu 7:00 pm
This is not the same TCU team that has waltzed through C-USAthe last few seasons. UAB has won and covered three straightgames and look to make a statement with another big win. TheBlazers were just 1-4 ATS at home last season but have anexperienced team with a very solid run defense. UAB has played afairly tough schedule and has just a loss at Florida State detracting from a great start. TCU barely beat Army and have only covered inone game this season. UAB BY 10


NFL KEY SELECTIONS
NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Seattle Rating: 3
DALLAS (-3) over Pittsburgh Rating: 3
CHICAGO (+1½) over Washington Rating: 2
NEW ORLEANS (+3½) over Minnesota Rating: 2
ATLANTA (-6) over San Diego Rating: 1
MONDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2004
ST. LOUIS (-7) Tampa Bay 8:05 pm
The Rams pulled off an improbable comeback versus Seattledespite several characteristic turnovers from QB Bulger. TheRams scored more points in the final six minutes of the gamethan Seattle had allowed all season. The Bucs earned a winunder QB Griese but won?t stop St. Louis. RAMS BY 9

SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON: Any 1-3 NFL team in Game 5 that is off a S/U
loss and playing a team off a S/U win.
PLAY ON: CAROLINA 39-14-3 ATS, 74% since 1984

OVER / UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
DETROIT/GREEN BAY OVER
Although most of the games were at the Silverdome this
series is 17/8 to the over when played in Detroit. Although
the Lions offense has struggled, Green Bay?s defense has
been more problematic. Overall the series has gone 31/18
to the over since 1980 and should go with the trend again.

STAT OF THE WEEK
Iowa has won 15 consecutive home games S/U