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These are my plays for this week, including my NFL GOY. Beware that my top plays in the NFL have been getting hammered, but I'm not going to get gun shy now....
10 STAR: Kansas City (-2) OVER JACKSONVILLE
After the 3-0 miracle start, the Jags now find themselves at 3-2 after dropping back to back games to the Colts and Chargers. It does not get any easier this week as they face a Kansas City Chiefs team that is desperate for wins sitting at 1-3 on the season. The Chiefs were impressive in their last win over the Ravens on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, as they hammered one of the top defenses in the league. Kansas City has had two weeks to get ready to play Jacksonville, which to me is a poor man's Baltimore Ravens as they rely on their defense to keep them in the game. But The Jags defense is not really as good as they are hyped up to be. Their defense was shredded by the Chargers last week and when you look at the numbers, they are not really that impressive. Jacksonville allows their opponents to complete over 63% of their passes at 6.5 yards per attempt and they get very little pressure on the quarterback as they are only averaging one sack per game. The Jags run defense is allowing over 120 yards rushing per game at almost 4 yards per carry. Jacksonville also fails to set up their offense with some easy scores. They are in the bottom half of the league with only 5 takeaways this season. Don't look for them to get any help from the Chiefs in that area during this game as Kansas City is one of the best teams in the league at holding on to the ball, as they have only turned it over four times this season. So I don't think the Chiefs will have a problem putting points on the board in this game. We all know how bad the Kansas City defense is, but they did a very nice job against the Ravens and should also be able to hold their own against a very poor Jacksonville offense. I look for Kansas City to take another step towards turning their season around in this game. The Chiefs are 7-1 against the spread in October over the last three seasons and I like them to get the job done in this game. Jacksonville is 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games after a double-digit loss. They are also 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as underdogs in October. KC coach Dick Vermeil is 12-2 against the spread as a road favorite when playing an opponent off a double-digit loss and 9-3 against the spread in his last 12 as a conference road favorite. Jags coach Jack Del Rio is 0-5 against the spread after a loss of 10 or more points and 1-4 against the spread in his last 5 games against an opponent off a straight up and against the spread win. I see tears for Vermeil this week, tear of joy! Lay the points!
2 STAR: Carolina (+9) OVER PHILADELPHIA
2 STAR: Washington (Pick)OVER CHICAGO
1 STAR: CLEVELAND (-2.5) OVER Cincinnati
1 STAR: DALLAS (-3) OVER Pittsburgh
2004 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-6-1 (-23.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 4-3-1 (+2.1 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 9-9 (-1.8 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 4-2 (+1.8 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 19-20-2 (-21.4 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2140
10 STAR: Kansas City (-2) OVER JACKSONVILLE
After the 3-0 miracle start, the Jags now find themselves at 3-2 after dropping back to back games to the Colts and Chargers. It does not get any easier this week as they face a Kansas City Chiefs team that is desperate for wins sitting at 1-3 on the season. The Chiefs were impressive in their last win over the Ravens on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, as they hammered one of the top defenses in the league. Kansas City has had two weeks to get ready to play Jacksonville, which to me is a poor man's Baltimore Ravens as they rely on their defense to keep them in the game. But The Jags defense is not really as good as they are hyped up to be. Their defense was shredded by the Chargers last week and when you look at the numbers, they are not really that impressive. Jacksonville allows their opponents to complete over 63% of their passes at 6.5 yards per attempt and they get very little pressure on the quarterback as they are only averaging one sack per game. The Jags run defense is allowing over 120 yards rushing per game at almost 4 yards per carry. Jacksonville also fails to set up their offense with some easy scores. They are in the bottom half of the league with only 5 takeaways this season. Don't look for them to get any help from the Chiefs in that area during this game as Kansas City is one of the best teams in the league at holding on to the ball, as they have only turned it over four times this season. So I don't think the Chiefs will have a problem putting points on the board in this game. We all know how bad the Kansas City defense is, but they did a very nice job against the Ravens and should also be able to hold their own against a very poor Jacksonville offense. I look for Kansas City to take another step towards turning their season around in this game. The Chiefs are 7-1 against the spread in October over the last three seasons and I like them to get the job done in this game. Jacksonville is 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games after a double-digit loss. They are also 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as underdogs in October. KC coach Dick Vermeil is 12-2 against the spread as a road favorite when playing an opponent off a double-digit loss and 9-3 against the spread in his last 12 as a conference road favorite. Jags coach Jack Del Rio is 0-5 against the spread after a loss of 10 or more points and 1-4 against the spread in his last 5 games against an opponent off a straight up and against the spread win. I see tears for Vermeil this week, tear of joy! Lay the points!
2 STAR: Carolina (+9) OVER PHILADELPHIA
2 STAR: Washington (Pick)OVER CHICAGO
1 STAR: CLEVELAND (-2.5) OVER Cincinnati
1 STAR: DALLAS (-3) OVER Pittsburgh
2004 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-6-1 (-23.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 4-3-1 (+2.1 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 9-9 (-1.8 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 4-2 (+1.8 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 19-20-2 (-21.4 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2140
:D
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