ESPN Insider College Plays

[wayne1218]

By Steve Muench
Scouts Inc.

Oklahoma and Texas face off in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. This will be the 99th
Red River Shootout. It has been held at the Cotton Bowl, which is almost an
equal distance from both campuses, since 1929.

Who: Texas (5) vs. Oklahoma (2)
When: Sat., 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX

This will be the 59th consecutive sellout. Texas leads the series 55-38-5 but
Oklahoma has won the last four, including a 65-13 rout last year. The winner of
the game will be presented with the Golden Hat Trophy and the Governor's Trophy,
which resides with the top elected official of each state.
When Texas has the ball
Texas run offense vs. Oklahoma run defense
Texas likes to run the option out of the shotgun formation, with RB Cedric
Benson lining up to the left or right of mobile QB Vince Young. Young decides
whether to keep the ball or pitch it by reading the defensive end. If the
defensive end flies upfield in an effort to maintain outside contain, Young will
hand the ball off to Benson. If the defensive end runs down the line in an
effort to get to Benson, Young will keep the ball and attack the perimeter.
Oklahoma's defensive ends are aggressive, so expect Benson to get plenty of
carries off the option. With DT Dusty Dvoracek dismissed from the team earlier
this year, Benson, who has the powerful running style to pick up tough yards
after contact, could cause problems for the Sooners. However, Young's
inconsistency as a passer will allow Oklahoma to walk SS Donte Nicholson up to
the line of scrimmage.
In addition, MLB Lance Mitchell has played well since returning from the knee
injury that forced him to miss almost all of last year. Mitchell has good size,
plays with a mean streak and is a reliable open field tackler. The key for
Oklahoma will be wrapping up Benson at the legs because he will run through any
arm tackles. The Sooners must also prevent Young from getting outside the
defensive ends.
Advantage: Texas
Texas pass offense vs. Oklahoma pass defense
Young has great arm strength and the mobility to avoid pressure, but his
accuracy is inconsistent and he doesn't make sound decisions under pressure. The
Sooners will blitz early and often in an effort to pressure Young into making
some mistakes.

Oklahoma's aggressive defense should give Vince Young the chance to make
plays.
While the Longhorns will counter by running some max protect schemes, it might
not be enough. Talented LOT Jonathan Scott has been plagued by inconsistency and
will be working against explosive DE Dan Cody for most of the day. If Texas has
to consistently give Scott help with a back or tight end, it will have one less
blocker to help pick up the blitz.
Oklahoma will have to respect Young's arm strength, so look for the Sooners to
run some man-free coverages. This will allow FS Brodney Poole to roam the middle
of the field, giving the corners safety help over the top. Poole is a vicious
hitter who punishes receivers. He led the Sooners in interceptions in 2003.
Advantage: Oklahoma
When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma run offense vs. Texas run defense
RB KeJuan Jones is expected to return from a twisted ankle that forced him to
miss the Texas Tech game. However, look for freshman RB Adrian Peterson to
continue to get the majority of the carries.
Peterson has become the first player in Oklahoma history to rush for 100 yards
or more in his first four games. He has the elusiveness to make the first
defender miss and the lower body strength to break tackles. He faces his
toughest challenge to date, working against a talented Texas front seven.
WLB Derric Johnson is one of the best players in the country. He leads a gifted
linebacking corps that has the range to prevent Peterson from turning the
corner. The Sooners should attack inside, especially if LDT Rodrigue Wright is
unable to play. Wright, who is questionable with an ankle injury, is the anchor
of the Longhorns' defensive line.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Oklahoma pass offense vs. Texas pass defense
Texas defensive coordinator Greg Robinson hasn't blitzed often, but Oklahoma
should expect that to change this week. The Longhorns don't want QB Jason White
to get comfortable in the pocket. The Sooners' backs and tight ends will play a
big role in the passing game. Keep an eye on Peterson when Oklahoma gets into an
obvious passing situation with him in the game. One of the toughest things for a
young back to learn is picking up the blitz.

The Sooners will look to exploit the Longhorns' secondary with Mark
Clayton.
Peterson must recognize the blitzing defender who poses the biggest threat to
White and attack the block. If he sits back and tries to anchor at the point of
attack, White may not have enough space to step into his throws. Oklahoma will
also flex TE James Moses out to one side, creating the appearance of a
four-receiver set, and then motion Moses inside where he can help one of his
offensive tackles.
If Texas has success getting to White early, the Sooners will look to neutralize
the pass rush by moving the pocket and throwing some wide receiver screens. WR
Mark Clayton can change directions quickly and is a threat to turn the short
gain into the big play.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Special teams
Texas PK Dusty Mangum lacks accuracy and has connected on just three of his six
field goal attempts thus far. P Richmond McGee is averaging 39.5 yards a punt
and has placed only one of his four punts inside the 20. PR Tarrell Brown and KR
Aaron Ross are dangerous with the ball in their hands, but they have yet to
break a long return.
Oklahoma PK Trey DiCarlo has connected on three of five field goal attempts and
gets excellent depth on his kickoffs. P Blake Ferguson has the leg strength to
kick the Sooners out of trouble and the accuracy to pin the Longhorns deep in
their own territory. PR Antonio Perkins is outstanding and has already returned
one for a touchdown this year. The always dangerous Clayton returns kickoffs.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Bottom line
Benson will help keep this game close, but big plays generally win big games.
Peterson has given the Sooners' offense the balance it lacked last year. He will
force the Longhorns' safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage, opening
up the vertical routes on the outside.
White will take advantage and make some big plays downfield. The Sooners'
defense will prevent Benson from having a monster game by loading up against the
run. Once Oklahoma forces Texas into some obvious passing situations, its pass
rush will have success pressuring Young into making some critical mistakes.

Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Texas 20

[wayne1218]

Cal/USC

By Tony Granieri
Scouts, Inc.

Two of the nation's top teams meet in this early-season Pac-10 showdown, as No.
1 ranked and defending national champion Southern California hosts the
seventh-ranked Bears on Saturday.

Who: California (7) at USC (1)
When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: L.A. Coliseum, Los Angeles

The men of Troy own an all-time record of 56-30-5 in this series, which dates
back to 1912. However, the Bears have won five of the last eight meetings,
including a 34-31 triple-overtime victory that snapped an 11-game winning streak
for USC last year. It's the Trojans' only loss in their last 25 games.
The long-awaited rematch has arrived, and it features two of the most explosive
offenses in the country. Cal's multi-pronged attack, the brainchild of head
coach Jeff Tedford, leads the nation in scoring (48.7), is second in total
offense (539.0) and is sixth in rushing (278.0).
Meanwhile, the Trojans' offense is averaging 36.5 points per game and has been
deadly efficient under the guise of veteran coordinator Norm Chow. Both defenses
rank in the top 10 nationally in points allowed, making this matchup that much
more interesting. Which one of these offensive gurus can make the necessary
adjustments and put their players in a position to succeed?
When California has the ball
California run offense vs. USC run defense
Cal RB J.J. Arrington has established himself as one of the most explosive
players in the country through the first three weeks of the season, rushing for
466 yards and seven touchdowns on just 54 carries. The mercurial back already
has two touchdown runs of 70 yards or more and is ranked fifth in the nation in
rushing yards per game (155.3).

J.J. Arrington has had a breakthrough year, but he hasn't seen anything
like the USC defense.
However, Arrington has carried the ball over 20 times only once this season
despite eclipsing the century mark in each of the Bears' first three games. Look
for true freshman Marshawn Lynch to shoulder some of the load this week. Lynch
is a more physical runner than Arrington, and rotating him into the game will
allow both backs to stay fresh in this game.
The Cal offensive line is as talented as any in the Pac-10, but it will be
working against one of the country's best defensive units. The Trojans are fast,
aggressive and excel in head coach Pete Carroll's complex scheme.
USC's front seven has the range to prevent Arrington and Lynch, both of whom
average more than 8.0 yards per carry, from turning the corner, but Cal's backs
have the speed to turn missed tackles into long gains. The Trojan defenders must
wrap up if they expect to keep this explosive duo from breaking things open.
Advantage: Draw
California pass offense vs. USC pass defense
The Bears' passing game has yet to take flight largely because it hasn't been
needed late in games. Cal has dominated opponents by an average score of 49-12,
jumping out to a sizeable lead in each one and then relying on the running game
to protect the lead.
Despite its lack of recognition through the early goings, the Bears' passing
game has awesome potential. QB Aaron Rodgers is regarded as the conference's
second-best quarterback, and there is excellent depth as well as talent at
receiver. Chase Lyman leads the team with five touchdown receptions on just 12
catches. He is complemented by TE Garrett Cross and former All-America honoree
WR Geoff McArthur.
With this many weapons at his disposal, its hard to imagine Rodgers not taking
advantage of a Trojan pass defense that features two new starters at cornerback.
In addition, Tedford is one of the most innovative game planners in all of
college football and will likely unveil some new wrinkles.
The element of surprise coupled with the speed of Lyman and McArthur could
result in some big plays, but the success of the passing game will ultimately be
determined by protection. Carroll does a great job of mixing things up
defensively, and he will bring pressure throughout this game to protect his
secondary.
That high-risk/high-reward approach has worked for the Trojans up to this point,
as the USC defense has already produced 16 sacks and 13 turnovers while allowing
just 190 passing yards per game. Rodgers must exercise good judgment and avoid
turning the ball over. One or two mistakes made on the road would negate the
advantage that Cal holds here.
Advantage: California
When USC has the ball
USC run offense vs. California run defense
The Bears have been solid statistically against the run, but their 103.3 yards
allowed per game average may be slightly skewed because teams have had to throw
in effort to come back.

Reggie Bush's versatility could pose a problem for Cal's D.
Cal's true colors on defense will be exposed when it squares off with two of the
Pac-10's top six rushers in Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Their numbers speak
for themselves, but what goes unappreciated is their versatility. Both line up
at tailback as well as fullback, both can split out wide and both can line up as
wingbacks in Chow's multi-formation offensive scheme. Chow keeps his opponents
guessing by moving them around.
Limiting Bush and White's production between the tackles will be an 11-man
effort, but the presence of "rover" Donnie McCleskey gives Cal an advantage that
other teams have not had. McCleskey possesses an outstanding combination of
size, strength and athletic ability. Meaning, the Bears can play an eighth
defender in the box without being at a disadvantage in coverage. McCleskey is
good enough to match up with Bush and/or White out of the backfield and limit
their production as receivers.
It's also important to note that DT Lorenzo Alexander is one of the conference's
best defensive linemen and will be working against 270-pound sophomore OC Ryan
Kalil.
Advantage: Draw
USC pass offense vs. California pass defense
The big question for USC entering this season was at wide receiver after Mike
Williams was ruled ineligible by the NCAA. After a slow start in which dropped
balls were a problem, the Trojan receiving corps seems to be coming around. WR
Steve Smith leads the team in receptions with 25 and is surrounded by a talented
supporting cast that includes Dwayne Jarrett and Chris McFoy.
Although Jarrett and McFoy's inexperience remains a concern for USC, they have
improved on a weekly basis and their presence allows Chow to spread the field
with three- and four-receiver sets. However, Cal has the experience and depth in
its secondary to match up with the Trojans on the perimeter, which leaves Bush
and TE Alex Holmes as potential difference-makers.
Bush doesn't have a lot of receptions, but it seems as if every catch he makes
goes for a long gain, a critical first down or a touchdown. It's imperative that
McCleskey limits Bush's production if Cal is to have a shot at the upset. That
said, Chow will keep Bush on the move in an attempt to find a matchup more
favorable than Bush working against McCleskey. QB Matt Leinart will have a
second option in the sure-handed Holmes, a reliable target over the middle, when
Bush isn't available.
Advantage: USC
Special teams
Cal PK David Lonie has attempted only one field goal this year and missed it. He
also handles the punting duties for the Bears and is currently averaging 43.6
yards per attempt. Lonie has a strong leg but must make sure to get enough hang
time on his punts this week, as USC PR Bush is extremely dangerous in the open
field. Bears backup DB Tim Mixon doubles as a return specialist and has averaged
12.5 yards on eight attempts.
Trojans PK Ryan Killeen has connected on just two of his six field-goal attempts
while P Tom Malone is averaging 42.8 yards a punt, including a long of 57.
Bush's big-play potential is what sets this group apart. He is perhaps the
nation's most explosive player and has the speed to swing momentum quickly.
Advantage: Draw
Bottom line
These teams are very similar to one another, with one major difference – and
that's defense. The Trojans match up better with Tedford's attack than the Bears
match up with Chow's offense. As a result, Rodgers won't be able to keep pace
with Bush and the potentially explosive Trojan offense.
In addition, USC has the advantage of playing at the Coliseum, where they've
been nearly impossible to beat, winning 16 consecutive games dating back to
2002. Cal will keep this game close with a couple of big plays from its talented
receiving corps, but Carroll's defense will eventually take over and pressure
Rodgers into making a critical mistake.

Prediction: USC 30, California 26

[wayne1218]

LSU/Fla.

By Todd McShay
Scouts, Inc.

The Gators will be looking for their third consecutive victory in the program's
first ever four-game homestand. After Florida handed LSU its only loss of the
2003 season, the Tigers will be looking to repay the favor in The Swamp.


Who: LSU (24) vs. Florida (12)
When: Sat., 7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL

Florida head coach Ron Zook has done a fine job of refocusing his team following
a controversial loss at Tennessee, rebounding with wins over Kentucky and
Arkansas. Florida is still very much in the ***** of the SEC East title hunt, as
it still has a chance to knock off the only undefeated team in the division,
Georgia.
When the Tigers suffered their second defeat to Georgia last week, any thoughts
of defending the BCS national championship title vanished. But Nick Saban's
squad can still play in a major bowl game with an upset over the Gators this
weekend.
Florida's offense ranks second in the SEC with an average of 35.5 points per
game, while LSU's defense is giving up just 15.8 points per contest.
The Gators' offense features one of the nation's most explosive quarterbacks in
Chris Leak. His weapons include running back Ciatrick Fason and wide receiver
Andre Caldwell. Following its embarrassing performance against Georgia last
week, LSU's defense will be out to prove its worth.
While all the hype surrounds the showdown between the Gators' offense and
Tigers' defense, the game is likely to be decided on the other side of the ball.
The Florida defense is young and inconsistent. It is loaded with talent and
anchored by one of the nation's best linebackers, Channing Crowder, but mental
breakdowns have led to too many big plays this season.
The LSU offense seemingly has every piece of the puzzle in place outside of the
quarterback position. If Marcus Randall and JaMarcus Russell fail to step up in
Saturday's trip to Gainesville, it could lead to yet another embarrassment for
the defending champs.
Key individual matchups
1. Florida QB Chris Leak vs. LSU FS LaRon Landry
Leak doesn't run the ball much, but he does use his feet to create second-chance
passing opportunities. He has a great arm and continues to mature in terms of
reading defenses.
Leak's biggest weakness remains his accuracy. Leak is a streaky passer who will
shred a defense when he's on his game, but he also can go through funks when he
"loses the strike zone." Many of his poorly-thrown balls are over the middle.
Within LSU's primarily "man-free" coverage scheme, Landry's role is typically
that of a center fielder. At times, he will be cheated up near the line of
scrimmage to give extra support against the run. He'll also occasionally be
matched up one-on-one versus slot receivers. However, Landry spends the majority
of his time reading quarterbacks' eyes as the "free" man in deep coverage.
If Leak isn't careful when throwing downfield or lets a throw get away from him
over the middle, Landry will be there to capitalize. Landry also has three sacks
on the season, as Saban likes to turn him loose on the blitz. Leak needs to know
where Landry is on every play.
2. Florida WR Andre Caldwell vs. LSU LDC Corey Webster
WR O.J. Small has five more receptions on the season, but Caldwell is the
playmaker of the Florida receiving corps. He isn't as consistent as Small, but
Caldwell is an emerging star. He has very good quickness and is a playmaker when
the ball is in the air. Caldwell is also a threat to go the distance after the
catch.
What makes this matchup so intriguing is that Webster is likely to be the
toughest challenge Caldwell faces all season long. Webster, who ranks among the
elite cornerbacks in the nation, is a terrific man-to-man cover corner in
Saban's gambling defensive scheme. He has the size, speed, toughness and
instincts to take most receivers out of the game without safety help.
If can keep Caldwell in check on an island in coverage, it will make life
extremely difficult for Leak. It also will free up the LSU safeties to become
more involved in run support as well as the occasional blitz.
3. LSU WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Florida DC Demetrice Webb
Much like Caldwell, Bowe is a sophomore on the brink of stardom. With Michael
Clayton and Devery Henderson gone to the NFL, and Skyler Green struggling to
stay healthy, the Tigers were looking at a potential void at the receiver
position. The emergence of Bowe, who ranks second in the SEC with 22 receptions,
has been critical.
The 6-3, 205-pound receiver also is averaging an impressive 16.5 yards per catch
with five touchdowns. What makes this matchup so interesting is the emergence of
Webb, who leads the Gators with five passes defended in his first season as a
starter. Webb has the speed to turn and run with Bowe and is a playmaker when
the ball is in the air. Bowe is a much more physical player.
Look for LSU to give Bowe some chances to use his body on "curl" and "dig"
routes while also giving the taller Bowe some opportunities to outjump Webb on
"fade" routes. LSU is struggling at quarterback, but it could gain some
confidence on offense if Bowe can use his size and strength to provide a couple
of big plays early in this game.
LSU's keys to success
1. Establish the running game immediately
With Shyrone Carey back from a four-game suspension, the Tigers have an
embarrassment of riches at the running back position. Alley Broussard was
awarded his first start, ahead of Justin Vincent, last week and is likely to be
the starter again on Saturday. Vincent will get a decent amount of carries as
well. Carey and Joseph Addai can also chip in as third down contributors.
With so much inconsistency at the quarterback position, it only makes sense for
the Tigers to emphasize the running game. The Gators' biggest weakness on
defense has been their inability to stop the run. Florida ranks 42nd in the
country and fifth in the SEC with 118.2 yards allowed per game on the ground.
The Gators are loaded with talent at linebacker. But their defensive line is not
deep, and the starters have been undisciplined versus the run so far this
season.
2. The quarterback position

Marcus Randall will need to make some plays against the Gators' attacking
defense.
Marcus Randall remained the starter last week but was pulled again in favor of
redshirt freshman JaMarcus Russell after the team got behind by 24 points in the
first half. While neither has played well, Russell has the stronger arm and is
clearly the more explosive athlete. Most importantly, he seems to make things
happen when he is in the game.
Randall is a good athlete but doesn't have nearly the physical package that
Russell possesses. Randall needs to be much more consistent in terms of his
accuracy and decision-making as a passer. He has a history of losing confidence
and will be working against a defense with the speed to close on poorly-thrown
balls.
Saban has yet to make a formal decision, but the pressure is beginning to mount
for Russell to start. The Tigers have to find a way to limit the mistakes made
at the quarterback position in this game, which is going to be a lot easier said
than done in a hostile environment at The Swamp.
3. Cornerbacks must hold up one-on-one
Saban's entire defensive philosophy is predicated on his cornerbacks' ability to
hold up in man-to-man coverage.
With Webster and Travis Daniels as his starting cornerbacks, Saban thought life
would be just as easy as it was in 2003, but that hasn't always been the case
this season. Webster remains one of the elite cover corners in the nation.
However, Daniels was burned for three touchdowns last week. Furthermore, the
depth hasn't been as strong at cornerback as originally anticipated. Ronnie
Prude continues to be inconsistent, and heralded junior college transfer Mario
Stevenson never panned out.
If the Tigers are going to bounce back, after surrendering 45 points to the
Bulldogs a week ago, they need their cornerbacks to do a much better job of
matching up against the Florida receivers. Otherwise, LSU will have to play more
conservatively with its safeties, which will take pressure off Leak and open up
space for Fason.
Florida's keys to success
1. Utilize wide receiver depth to spread LSU out
The unit was a bit of a question mark heading into the season, but that no
longer is the case. Small has developed into a reliable possession receiver with
very good size and strength. Caldwell is the playmaker of the group and
continues to improve with more experience. The team is also getting a lot of
help from Dallas Baker, Chad Jackson and Jemalle Cornelius, who have combined
for 29 catches and 498 yards in four games.
With concerns growing about Daniels' confidence and LSU's lack of overall depth
at the cornerback position, look for the Gators to come out in a lot of three-
and four-receiver sets. Not only will it create some favorable matchups, it also
will help to neutralize the LSU pass rush.

The Tigers must remain disciplined when Chris Leak begins to scramble.
2. Maintain offensive balance
While the Gators are likely to open things up with a lot of spread formations on
offense, it doesn't mean they will get away from the run. Using multiple
receiver sets will likely increase their odds of successfully running the
football. It will give them more five- and six-man fronts to block against and
will help to get linebackers out of the game.
While the Gators continue to rotate Fason and DeShawn Wynn at the running back
position, Fason has clearly developed into the team's primary option. Fason got
minimal playing time as Ran Carthon's backup last season, but the junior running
back is off to a fast start in 2004 with 458 rushing yards on 80 carries. If
Fason continues to run hard on Saturday, the Gators should be able to move the
football with some consistency.
3. Blitz LSU's quarterbacks
Randall and Russell are athletic quarterbacks with the potential to burn teams
for blitzing them. But neither has been able to consistently make opponents pay
for pressuring them.
In fact, Georgia consistently attacked both Randall and Russell last week, which
led to five total sacks and three turnovers. Florida defensive coordinator
Charlie Strong likes to blitz. He has varied the intensity of his blitzing so
far this season because of the youth he is dealing with in his secondary. This
week, Strong undoubtedly will turn up the heat.
Look for the Gators to play a lot of eight-man fronts with SS Cory Bailey
cheated up as a fourth linebacker. They will blitz their linebackers, and even a
cornerback, to mix things up for Randall and Russell.
When LSU has the ball
The LSU offense is loaded at running back. The Tigers also possess two fine wide
receivers in Green and Bowe, and one of the most physically gifted offensive
lines in the nation. However, inconsistency at the quarterback position has
stunted the growth of the offense and led to an overall lack of confidence
throughout this unit.
Opposing defenses are loading up and coming after the LSU offense. Georgia was a
prime example last week when they frequently played eight men in "the box" and
consistently blitzed from all different angles. The offensive line is talented,
but no unit is good enough to consistently open up running lanes against
eight-man fronts or block five- and six-man pass rushes.
The Tigers have a great amount of talent and depth at running back. Broussard
has taken over the starting job from Vincent, who has not been as explosive as
he was a season ago. Broussard rushed for 45 yards on 12 carries against Georgia
last week.

BroussardHe's been the more productive of the two backs this season. Broussard
rushed for 84 yards on 10 carries against Auburn, and scored three touchdowns on
73 yards against Mississippi State. He doesn't have Vincent's speed but is a
bigger back who hits the hole hard and picks up yards after contact. Against a
Florida defense that lacks depth up front, his punishing running style could be
effective.
LSU needs to hit on some early throws downfield. The Tigers have the speed and
playmakers to exploit Florida's aggressive defense. Green isn't nearly as
effective in the vertical passing game as Bowe, but the Tigers must find more
ways to get the ball in his hands in space. Davis is young and still learning,
but continues to improve with every game.
The good news for LSU is that Florida is not nearly as good up front defensively
as the Bulldogs. After four games this season, Florida has just three total
sacks. The Gators will be forced to blitz in this football game. They have to
feel good about their chances because of LSU's inability to consistently throw
the football downfield, but they still will leave their inexperienced secondary
in many vulnerable situations.
The Gators also lack depth and experience up front. This has led several broken
contains for athletic quarterbacks and cutback runners. It was a major problem
against Arkansas' Matt Jones last week and could be again this week if DEs
Jeremy Mincey and Joe Cohen don't play with more discipline.
The back seven has actually done its part. Crowder is one of the most active and
productive linebackers in the nation. Everett is also a very good athlete at the
SLB position, and his versatility as a pass rusher should help the Gators.
The secondary had to replace all four starters from a year ago, but CBs Webb and
Reynaldo Hill have held up well. Webb is clearly the better athlete and has
great speed, but Hill is a senior who makes fewer mental errors. The safeties
have also been solid. SS Bailey is fourth on the team with 20 total tackles and
FS Jarvis Herring has one of the unit's five interceptions.
LSU special teams
The Tigers haven't been great on special teams so far this season, but they do
have a slight edge over Florida in this department. Not only are they more
experienced in the kicking game, they also have more explosive potential in the
return game.
Green headlines the group. He struggled early on because of an ankle injury, but
he's as close to 100 percent as he has been all season. Green is averaging seven
yards per punt return and 21 yards per kickoff return. He averaged 18.5 yards
per punt return last season, including two returns for touchdowns.
Green will handle all the punt returns in this game but will likely split the
kickoff return duties with Xavier Carter. The team has missed PT Donnie Jones.
Redshirt freshman Patrick Fisher was a highly-touted young prospect who beat out
Chris Jackson for the job in the summer but was unable to keep the job early in
the season.
Jackson is averaging just 38.3 yards and has landed just three inside the
opponents' 20-yard line. Jackson also has continued to split place-kicking
duties with Ryan Gaudet, after the two combined to make 12 of 20 field-goal
attempts in 2003. So far this season, Gaudet has nailed both of his attempts
from within 40 yards and Jackson is 3 of 5 with a long of 42 yards. Both of
Jackson's misses came between 40-49 yards.
When Florida has the ball
When Leak is "on", he's one of the toughest quarterbacks in the nation to
defend. He doesn't run the ball as much as people tend to think, but he poses a
threat to run. Defenses frequently have breakdowns in coverage when he starts to
scramble. His ability to buy extra time as a passer is also invaluable.
Leak can be inconsistent and will lose the "strike zone" on occasion – see the
Kentucky game – but for the most part, he has been efficient and tremendously
productive this season. He has completed 62.8 percent of his attempts for 1,113
yards with 10 touchdowns compared to four interceptions.

SmallThe supporting cast benefits greatly from the attention given to Leak. As
the season has progressed, that supporting cast has noticeably grown up. The
Gators use a lot of three- and four-receiver sets and the depth of the unit has
been impressive.
The emergence of Fason, as a power runner with acceleration in the open field,
has been key to balancing out the offensive attack. Backup RB DeShawn Wynn has
rushed for 113 yards on 31 carries and will continue to provide Fason with an
occasional breather. But Fason, who has averaged 5.7 yards on 80 carries with
five touchdowns, will continue to carry the majority of the load.
The offensive line often is made to look better than it is because of Leak's
ability to scramble. The one impressive aspect of the unit is its toughness in
the running game. The Gators have traditionally had a "finesse" offensive line
that spent most of its time setting up in pass protection under Steve Spurrier.
However, now that Zook is using a much more balanced attack, the offensive line
is as physical as it has been in a long while.
Look for the Gators to use a lot of "bubble" screens in this game. The "bubble"
screen is a two-man pattern that consists of a "stalk block" by the X-receiver
and a short flair to the sideline by the Z-receiver. Florida runs this play as
well as any team in the country and it could be especially effective against
LSU's aggressive defense.
LSU's defense is not nearly as dominant as it was a season ago, but the unit
still ranks 19th in the nation. Part of the problem is that it has been placed
in a lot of miserable situations. The defense has made a lot of big plays this
season – 12 sacks, six fumble recoveries and six interceptions, two of which
were returned for scores – and it will need to provide even more this week to
keep the balanced Florida offense in check.
The unit really misses DT Chad Lavalais and DE Marquise Hill, but LDE Marcus
Spears has done a fine job of anchoring the defensive line. Kyle Williams is
also a returning starter at defensive tackle.
Spears is one of the most complete defensive linemen in the nation. His ability
to stuff the run as well as he rushes the passer (eight sacks last season and
one so far this season) makes him a dangerous weapon on the left side of the
line. Opposite Spears is Melvin Oliver, who also has good size and strength.
Williams is not overly big, but his quickness and athleticism make him tough to
block inside. The starting spot next to Williams has been a trouble area, as the
team has turned to freshman Glen Dorsey.
Lionel Turner anchors the linebacking corps and leads the team with 41 total
tackles. Turner is a classic middle linebacker with great size, power and
instincts. WLB Cameron Vaughn is the best athlete of the group, and his
versatility makes him a dangerous weapon.
At SLB, the Tigers have settled on freshman Ali Highsmith. Highsmith has good
upside but is undersized, and his inexperience will show up from time to time.
The biggest key on defense for the Tigers is going to be the play of their
cornerback – Webster, Daniels and Prude. Webster can be counted on, but Daniels
has to bounce back after being picked on for three touchdowns last week. Prude
will have to be more consistent in coverage against a Florida offense that will
almost always employ three-receiver sets.
The design of Saban's defense is to trust his cornerbacks on "islands" in
coverage, which frees up the safeties to become much more versatile within the
scheme. Jessie Daniels has limited experience after backing up Jack Hunt last
season, and he's not the quarterback that Hunt was for this unit. But Daniels
has played aggressively and has been a big time contributor versus the run. He
ranks third on the team with 29 total tackles and also has an interception.
The transition has definitely been eased by Landry, who is one of the best young
defensive backs in the country. As a true freshman last season, Landry made his
mark by leading the team in tackles. He has good size, is a powerful hitter and
shows explosive closing burst. Landry has become an even bigger playmaker as a
sophomore.
After five games, Landry ranks second on the team with 38 tackles, three sacks
and one interception. His versatility and playmaking skills will be a big key in
this game. He can make up for a lot of other sins if he can frustrate Leak and
help contain Fason.
Florida special teams
The Gators' special teams are just average. PT Eric Wilbur has averaged a
respectable 41.6 yards per attempt and the cover teams have been excellent. The
unit ranks 27th in the nation in net punting.
PR Vernell Brown flashes explosiveness because of his speed and elusiveness in
the open field. He has yet to break one for a score, but his average of 9.5
yards per return is very respectable. He also has a long of 43 yards. Otherwise,
there isn't a whole lot to be excited about here.
PK Matt Leach missed a 47-yard field-goal attempt against Kentucky two weeks
ago. Overall, he is 3 of 6 with a long of just 40 yards. The kickoff return team
has provided very little spark for the offense. The unit ranks 82nd nationally
and neither Jackson nor Caldwell has been able to overcome poor blocking up
front.
Bottom line
Florida's gigantic advantage at the quarterback position will play a key role in
the outcome of this game. While LSU will try to protect its quarterbacks,
Florida will rely on Leak to make plays. The Tigers' defense will give the
Gators all they can handle. Leak is bound to make a couple of mistakes, but the
Gators' balance will help to neutralize the LSU blitz.
On the other side of the ball, the Gators can be penetrated on the ground. LSU
will try to slow down the tempo with a strong commitment to the run and will
also hope for a big spark from Green in the return game. But that strategy will
only get them so far. Randall and Russell have shown no ability to consistently
beat man-coverage on the perimeter. Playing in The Swamp only creates more
potential for disaster.
There might not be a whole lot of scoring on Saturday night and things will come
harder for Florida than many people might think. LSU's aggressive defense will
cause the Gators some problems, and Florida's inconsistency when it comes to
stopping the run will hurt them.
In the end, the Gators will simply make more big plays on both sides of the
ball. With this win, the Gators will position themselves for a showdown against Georgia.

Prediction: Florida 26, LSU 23

[wayne1218]

Georgia/Tenn.

By Tony Granieri
Scouts Inc.

The stakes are high for these two SEC East rivals, as championship hopes hang in
the balance. Tennessee stands at 3-1 after falling to Auburn last weekend and
looks to rebound with a road victory over the No. 3 Bulldogs. A Volunteers' win
can force a three-way tie atop the conference standings and keep their dreams of
a championship intact.

Who: Tennessee (17) vs. Georgia (3)
When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.

The Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 45-16 victory over LSU, and at 4-0
they are the team to beat in the conference. A win over Tennessee would put them
in position to take control of the SEC East race.
This game also features four of the best freshmen in the country – Tennessee QBs
Erick Ainge and Derrick Schaeffer and Georgia RBs Danny Ware and Thomas Brown.
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee run offense vs. Georgia run defense: With this game on the road and
last weekend's five-interception performance still fresh in the minds of Ainge
and Schaeffer, the running game needs to shoulder the load early on.

Auburn made QB Erik Ainge look like a freshman. The Bulldogs will try to
do the same.
The Volunteers run out of the I-formation the majority of the time, and they
have had success running behind the powerful blocking of FB Cory Anderson. He is
one of the biggest reasons RBs Cedric Houston and Gerald Riggs Jr. rank among
the SEC's top-10 rushers. Houston is the more explosive of the two, but he has
struggled working against top-shelf opponents, and Riggs will need to chip in
15-18 carries to help keep Houston fresh.
While Georgia DE David Pollack gets most of the recognition for the success of
Bulldogs' 4-3 defense, the player to keep an eye on will be FS Thomas Davis.
With the Tennessee passing game figuring to struggle, Bulldogs defensive
coordinator Brian VanGorder will crowd the line of scrimmage and run some
eight-man fronts. Thomas represents that eighth defender. A former linebacker,
he is Georgia's biggest hitter and surest tackler. Unless Ainge and/or Schaeffer
can force him back off the line, the Tennessee running game won't be as
dominating as it could be.
Advantage: Draw
Tennessee pass offense vs. Georgia pass defense: The Volunteers have potential
in the passing game, but their inexperience at quarterback remains the biggest
hurdle. Tennessee's young QBs need to do a better job of protecting the
football, as the Volunteers aren't good enough to overcome the kind of mistakes
that Ainge and Schaeffer made last week. Both will need to exercise better
judgment working against the Bulldogs if the Volunteers are to have any shot of
pulling off the upset.
Tennessee's offensive line also will have to show improvement against a Georgia
defense that already has registered 11 sacks. The most intriguing matchup to
watch in that regard will be LOT Michael Munoz working against Pollack. Although
Munoz isn't the most physically gifted left tackle in the nation, he plays with
excellent technique and balance. His ability to get set quickly is critical
because of Pollack's power in the short area. If Munoz consistently wins this
battle, look for Pollack to switch sides on obvious passing downs in an effort
to exploit the inexperience of ROT Aaron Sears.
Advantage: Georgia
When Georgia has the ball

With Danny Ware back in the lineup, Georgia's running game is rolling.
Georgia run offense vs. Tennessee run defense: The Bulldogs lost projected
starter Kregg Lumpkin to a torn ACL on the first day of fall camp and was
thought to be facing a backfield-by-committee approach. However, freshman Ware
already has rushed for more than 100 yards in a game twice. Georgia didn't have
a back rush for more than 100 yards in game the entire 2003 season.
The emergence of Georgia's freshman tailbacks has given this offense balance.
Ware is the starter, and he leads the team in rushing, but Brown has put up
similar numbers and will carry the ball 10-15 times per game. Georgia operates
out of the shotgun formation most of the time and will utilize a number of draws
and tackle-traps in an attempt to neutralize OLB Kevin Burnett.
Tennessee's defense is very aggressive and Burnett is the catalyst. If Burnett
overpursues or gets caught out of position, Ware and Brown have the vision to
locate the seam and the speed to exploit it.
Advantage: Georgia
Georgia pass offense vs. Tennessee pass defense: The development of the
offensive line was a concern for Georgia heading into the 2004 season,
considering the Bulldogs allowed an SEC-high 47 sacks in 2003. But there has
been excellent progress thus far. Georgia's offensive line has surrendered just
four sacks and has helped QB David Greene throw for eight touchdowns to just one
interception.
Head coach Mark Richt will want to be aggressive early on, as opening up a lead
at home will put Tennessee and its inexperienced QBs in a bind. As a result,
expect to see Green take plenty of chances downfield in the first half. Georgia
has plenty of speed in WRs Reggie Brown and Fred Gibson. They should be able to
exploit a Tennessee secondary that has been inconsistent.
Backup RB Tyson Browning also will make a significant contribution. Browning can
line up in the slot and create matchup problems for the Volunteers. He is too
fast to cover with a linebacker, but Tennessee might have little choice
considering the explosiveness of Brown and Gibson.
Advantage: Georgia
Special teams
Tennessee P Dustin Colquitt is an NFL prospect and arguably the best player at
his position in the country. While he had a punt partially blocked last week, he
still is averaging 44.0 yards per attempt and has placed six of his 11 punts
inside the 20-yard line. PK James Wilhoit has connected on 2 of 4 field goal
attempts, including a game-winning 50-yarder against Florida.
Georgia's kicking game also is solid, with Andy Bailey connecting on 7 of 9
field goal attempts. However, P Gordon Ely-Kelso has struggled with consistency
and is averaging just 39.9 yards per attempt. Browning handles the return duties
and is one of the most explosive return men in the conference. He is averaging
15.9 yards per punt return, including a long of 72 that went for a score.
Advantage: Georgia
Bottom line
The Bulldogs have yet to play their best football, which is scary considering
their 4-0 record and recent domination of LSU. Georgia's running game is just
settling in now that Ware is back. While the Bulldogs' defense has been playing
well, the momentum that usually lifts a defense to a championship caliber has
yet to kick in. There are more big plays ahead of this group than behind it.
The Volunteers will come out running the ball and will have some success early
on, but once Green and the Bulldogs open up a lead, the inexperience of Ainge
and Schaeffer will be exposed. With each passing week Georgia takes one step
closer to establishing itself as a national power, and that shouldn't change this week.

Prediction: Georgia 35, Tennessee 24

[wayne1218]

Minn./Michigan

By Tony Granieri
Scouts, inc.

This Big Ten showdown is a battle for conference supremacy as No.13 Minnesota
travels to Ann Arbor to take on the No. 14 Wolverines.
Both teams come in with unblemished conference records and tied for the top spot
in league standings. However, at 5-0 Minnesota boasts the better overall mark
and it can secure a bowl berth with a win over Michigan.

Who: Minnesota (13) at Michigan (14)
When: Sat., 12:00 ET (ESPN)
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.

The Gophers are a highly-touted offensive machine with one of the best running
attacks in the country. They will look to avenge last year's meltdown at the
Metrodome.
Minnesota led Michigan 28-7 in the fourth quarter of the game but the Wolverines
came from behind to register a 38-35 victory. While the game remains a nightmare
and a psychological hurdle for the Gophers, it is a source of inspiration for
the Wolverines.
In a conference with 15 traditional trophy games, only one will be on the line
this weekend.
Michigan and Minnesota battle for the oldest trophy in conference annals.
Established in 1903 the "Little Brown Jug" has been the focal point of this
rivalry for over a century.
Saturday's game marks the 93rd meeting between the Golden Gophers and Wolverines
with Michigan holding a 66-23-3 edge in the all-time series. Minnesota will be
looking to claim the jug for the first time since 1986.
When Minnesota has the ball
Minnesota run offense vs. Michigan run defense
It's almost impossible to decide who the bigger star is when it comes to RBs
Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney.
The Gophers' one-two punch has run wild over the team's first five opponents,
combining for 1,272 rushing yards. Needless to say this backfield has taken
advantage of head coach Glen Mason's run-first philosophy. Minnesota has run the
ball 270 times compared to just 94 passing attempts.
That run-to-pass ratio should continue this week, as the Gophers travel to one
of the most intimidating venues in all of college football, Michigan Stadium.
Mason will want to control the clock and he should be able to so thanks to
Maroney and Barber. Look for the Gophers to attack Michigan on the perimeter
with Maroney, who has great burst and incredible vision. They can then attack
the heart of the defense with the power and physical style of Barber.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota pass offense vs. Michigan pass defense
The Minnesota passing attack has been used strictly in a complementary role, but
QB Bryan Cupito has done a great job of taking advantage of his limited
opportunities.
Cupito has thrown seven touchdown passes, including three that have covered 50
yards or more.
With opposing teams consistently using eight- and nine-man fronts in an effort
to slow down the Gophers' high-powered running game, Cupito has faced mostly
man-coverage. That might not be the case this week.
The Wolverines boast one of the best front-sevens in the nation and they will
rarely bring an eighth defender into the box. One of the few times they do play
a safety near the line of scrimmage will be in short-yardage situations.
Cupito is an excellent ball-handler and he might be able to find freshman WR
Ernie Wheelwright, who is the team's biggest threat on the edge, downfield off
play-action.
In the end it will come down to Minnesota's ability to generate big plays on
offense and the Wolverines' – who lead the nation with 19 takeaways – ability to
create them on defense.
Advantage: Draw
When Michigan has the ball
Michigan run offense vs. Minnesota run defense
The Wolverines use their running game to set up the pass, but they lack
explosiveness in the backfield and the ground attack has sputtered at times as a
result. Starter Michael Hart leads the team in rushing with 336 yards, but the
team's longest run has been just 17 yards.
Minnesota operates out of the 4-3 and it has been stout against the run,
allowing just 96.7 yards per game. It should have little trouble keeping
Michigan's running game in check. The strength of the Gophers' defense is an
athletic linebacker corps led by WLB Terrance Campbell that allows coordinator
Greg Hudson to mask the team's weaknesses up front by run-blitzing. While this
group isn't dominating, it's fundamentally sound and it should have some success
slowing the Wolverines down.
Advantage: Minnesota
Michigan pass offense vs. Minnesota pass defense
QB Chad Henne will have quite a bit of responsibility working against a
Minnesota team that is coming off strong efforts against Northwestern and Penn
State over the past two weeks. The freshman is the third-rated quarterback in
the Big Ten, but this is his first crucial conference game and nerves could
become a factor.
If Henne can get into a rhythm, the Wolverines should be able to get their
passing game going against the Gophers. Braylon Edwards is one of the best
receivers in the nation with 40 receptions for 665 yards and seven touchdowns.
He should exploit a vulnerable Gophers' secondary for some big plays.
Minnesota is currently allowing 271.8 passing yards per game and Michigan head
coach Lloyd Carr will be sure to attack them through the air. One or two big
plays from Edwards early on would open this game up and force the Gophers to
throw more than they'd be comfortable with.
Advantage: Michigan
Special teams
Minnesota PK Rhys Lloyd has connected on five of his nine field goal attempts,
but he has already had two kicks blocked.
Although Lloyd also handles the punting duties for the Gophers, he hasn't been
overly effective in that role. He is averaging just 37.1 yards per attempt. The
return duties are in good shape with Barber shouldering the load back deep but
he has yet to turn his explosive potential into actual production.
Michigan PK Garret Rivas has connected on seven of his ten field goal attempts
including a long of 47 yards. He is one of the best kickers in the Big Ten and
he has great range. P Adam Finley is also solid and he is averaging 44.1 yards
per attempt. Steve Breaston and Leon Hall share the return duties. Hall has made
the bigger impact so far, as he already has a 76-yard return for a touchdown.
Advantage: Michigan
Bottom line
This should be one of the most entertaining games of the Big Ten season, as two
of the conference's best teams square off with championship implications hanging
in the balance.
Minnesota's rushing attack is as dominant as any in the country, but it draws a
tough matchup working against the stout Wolverine run defense. This
strength-versus-strength matchup will go a long way in determining Saturday's
winner.
However, it will not be the sole determinant, as the Wolverines will look to
turn this game into a shootout. If Henne and Edwards can hook up for a couple of
big plays early, the effect will be two-fold.
First, it will limit the impact Barber and Maroney can make on this game, as the
Gophers would be forced to throw in an effort to come back. Second, the
Wolverines' opportunistic defense will have more chances to register the
knockout blow if it can force Minnesota's offense to rely on Cupito's arm.

Prediction: Michigan 31, Minnesota 27

[wayne1218]

Wisc./Ohio St

By Tony Granieri
Scouts, Inc.

Saturday's game marks the 72nd meeting between Wisconsin and Ohio State. The
Buckeyes own a decisive 50-16-5 edge in the series, but it has been much closer
recently, with Ohio State holding a slim 5-4-1 edge over the last ten games.
Wisconsin has won three of the last four meetings, including last year's 17-10
win over the then-No. 3 Buckeyes.

Who: Wisconsin (16) at Ohio State (15)
When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

This game will feature two of the nation's best defenses. The Badgers lead the
conference in total defense, pass defense and scoring defense, allowing an
average of just 5.2 points per game. Ohio State counters with the Big Ten's
leading tackler in LB A.J. Hawk and a defense that is as aggressive as any in
the country.
The stakes are high between these two long-time rivals, and the outcome of this
one will go a long way in determining the Big Ten championship.
When Wisconsin has the ball
Wisconsin run offense vs. Ohio State run defense
With RB Anthony Davis back at 100 percent, there is a burgeoning confidence in
the Wisconsin locker room. Davis is the team's best player, and his return
provided the Badger offense with the spark it had been missing through the early
part of the season. He ran for 213 yards and three scores against Illinois last
week in his first action since suffering an eye injury three weekends ago.

Davis' return awakened a dormant Badgers offense.
Coordinator Brian White will run everything from a one-back and four-wide set to
a two-tight end and two-back formation. He'll need a special effort from Davis
because the running game will have to take some pressure off the passing game.
Wisconsin is walking into a hornet's nest at Ohio Stadium. In addition to the
100,000 screaming Ohio State fans, the Buckeyes will come out fired up after
last weekend's disappointing loss to Northwestern. The defense's main goal will
be to stop Davis and coordinator Mark Snyder will sell out, if necessary, to do
so. Davis can expect to see a steady diet of eight and nine-man fronts from Ohio
State, as Snyder will dare the Badgers to beat the Buckeyes through the air.
Advantage: Draw
Wisconsin pass offense vs. Ohio State pass defense
Davis could also have an impact on the passing game; just his presence should
make life much easier for QB John Stocco, who has been struggling for most of
the season. However, there is a difference between having an advantage and
capitalizing on it. Stucco has completed only 47.8 percent of his passes and has
thrown as many interceptions as thrown touchdowns. His inconsistency is a
concern.
The Buckeyes have been without their top cover corner Dustin Fox for three weeks
now, but the pass defense hasn't missed a beat with E.J. Underwood and Ashton
Youboty stepping up in his absence. Ohio State is allowing a mere 169.8 passing
yards per game, and both corners are talented enough to match up in
single-coverage. That's good news, considering the Buckeyes will feel more
comfortable crowding the line of scrimmage in order to stop Davis. It also
doesn't hurt that Wisconsin lacks great speed at receiver.
Advantage: Ohio State
When Ohio State has the ball
Ohio State run offense vs. Wisconsin run defense
While the Buckeyes will benefit from being at home, they need to play with more
consistency on offense, and it all starts up front. The offensive line has
struggled to play up to the high standards that Ohio State sets, and the running
game has averaged just 115.0 yards per game.
After a week of practice and some choice words from the coaches, this group
should be far more aggressive. RBs Lydell Ross and Maurice Hall aren't big-play
threats -- though they are serviceable -- and Ohio State's running game will
continue to be ball-control oriented.
The Badgers want to prevent Ross and Hall from taking the pressure off QB Justin
Zwick, so expect Wisconsin to use some run blitzes on first and second downs. By
attacking on obvious running downs, defensive coordinator Bret Bielema may be
able to force Zwick into some third-and-long situations.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Ohio State pass offense vs. Wisconsin pass defense

Speed kills: Holmes is a true playmaker.
WR Santonio Holmes is the most explosive player on either team. He is perhaps
the biggest offensive threat the Badgers have faced this year and can provide
the big plays that Ohio State needs to get past this stingy defense.
The problem is Ohio State may not be able to take advantage of Holmes'
outstanding talent. For starters, Zwick is inexperienced and has made some poor
decisions through the first four games, throwing five interceptions. He needs to
improve his ability to manage the game quickly, or this could be a lost season
in Columbus.
In addition, only one Buckeye receiver other than Holmes is in double-digits for
catches, and Zwick has not done a good job of getting his other teammates
involved. WR Bam Childress is more than capable of complementing Holmes on the
outside, but the Ohio State passing game will remain inconsistent until Zwick
improves his ability to see the field.
The Badgers will run blitz on first and second down and drop seven men into
coverage when they're successful forcing Zwick into third-and-long situations.
Wisconsin also may be able to exploit Zwick's lack of accuracy by crowding the
short-to-intermediate passing game.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Special teams
Wisconsin PK Mike Allen has connected on seven of his ten field goal attempts,
including a long of 48 yards. He has been extremely consistent and has a
powerful leg. P Ken DeBauche has placed seven of his attempts inside the 20-yard
line and is averaging 40.9 yards per kick. The return game is in the hands of DC
Jim Leonhard, who is averaging 15.5 yards per attempt.
Ohio State's return game is more explosive with Holmes fielding punts and kicks.
He already has a return for a touchdown and is extremely dangerous in the open
field. PK Mike Nugent is one of the most clutch kickers in the nation and is
currently ten for twelve on field goal attempts. He has a long of 55 yards, and
his strong leg gives this struggling Buckeye offense a shot at points they would
otherwise be without.
Advantage: Ohio State
Bottom line
The job at hand is relatively simple for the Buckeyes: get back to Ohio State
football, which means winning the battle in the trenches and imposing its will
on the visiting Badgers. However, Wisconsin is also extremely physical and will
make the execution of this game plan a tough assignment.
The Badger running game is hitting on all cylinders with Davis back in the
lineup, and Wisconsin has one of the Big Ten's stingiest defenses. If the
Badgers can force Zwick into some third-and-long situations, they can pressure
him into making some critical mistakes. Led by the strong running of Davis and
the conference's top defense, the Badgers should be able to keep the
100,000-plus funs at Ohio Stadium in their seats the majority of the day.

Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Ohio State 17

[wayne1218]

Podolsky's Picks

By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider

This week features three great matchups: Texas-Oklahoma, Wisconsin-Ohio State
and Cal-USC. The outcome of these games will have a huge impact on who will play
in the BCS title game. If Oklahoma and USC win their games easily, as we
suspect, they'll be well on their way to meeting in a dream championship match.
Saturday

Oklahoma -7 vs. Texas: Oklahoma isn't as explosive as its been in the past, but
the Sooners keep winning with relative ease. Texas has shown lots of
vulnerability. The Longhorns are soft on the edges with average defensive ends
and corners. Oklahoma will run wide all day. And when the corners come up, Jason
White will zip a few passes over the top for easy completions.
Texas' only chance to win is with Chance Mock, the forgotten quarterback who can
throw like a seasoned drop-back passer. The Vince Young experiment has simply
not worked. He is a great athlete but has no consistency throwing the ball.
Oklahoma's lone weakness appears to be its secondary, and we don't think Young
is the one to exploit it.

The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).


Wisconsin +3½ at Ohio State: Barry Alvarez has the Badgers humming. All-America
running back Anthony Davis returned last week in spectacular fashion, gaining
213 yards against Illinois. Davis' strength is his ability to cut back, which
will come in handy against Ohio State's zone scheme. But the real story at
Wisconsin this year is the defense, which hasn't yielded more than seven points
in any game. Leading the way is defensive end Erasmus James, who the Buckeyes
will be double-teaming all day.
While this isn't a potent Ohio State team, we don't expect them to go down
easily. They are probably embarrassed after losing at Northwestern last week,
and they'll certainly want to avenge their 17-10 loss at Wisconsin last year.
The Buckeyes haven't lost a home game since '01. Coach Jim Tressel has managed
to make up for inexperience at the quarterback position with defense and a great
kicking game. Zwick has looked so-so against Cincinnati, N.C. State and
Northwestern. He'll get plenty of pressure from the Badgers.

The pick: Wisconsin, which should control the game with its great defense and running attack.


Ohio +8½ vs. Marshall: Ohio showed signs of improvement last year when it
outplayed Northen Illinois on the road, only to lose in overtime. Last week, the
Bobcats officially arrived with a shocking upset at Kentucky. The secret weapon
was WR Scott Mayle, who ran the ball five times for 56 yards and caught four
passes for 159 yards. The Bobcats also get their starting quarterback, Ryan
Hawk, back this week.
Marshall has to be the best 1-3 team in the country. But after getting up for
games against Troy, Ohio State, Georgia and Miami of Ohio, can they possibly be
excited about playing Ohio? The upset of Kentucky has gotten Marshall's
attention, but we don't think they'll be nearly as focused as they were last
week against Miami.

The pick: Ohio to pull another upset.


Kansas State -3 vs. Kansas: After three consecutive tough emotional defeats, the
Jayhawks must take on hated rival Kansas State. Bill Snyder knows how
devastating a loss here would be to Kansas State's recruiting. This isn't the
Wildcats' defense we're used to, but the offense showed definite signs of
breaking out of its funk last week at Texas A&M, registering 368 yards.
Quarterback Dylan Meier tossed three touchdown passes. However, he also had two
interceptions, which cost the Wildcats the game. Losing to Fresno State and at
Texas A&M aren't mortal sins. But Kansas State fans are expecting a victory at
Kansas this week, and Bill Snyder knows he better deliver.

The pick: Kansas State.


Auburn -25½ vs. Louisiana Tech: This is maybe the best team in the country
facing an opponent which doesn't match up at any position. The Bulldogs had
their big win last week, upsetting Fresno at home. They are extremely vulnerable
to a good rushing attack and Auburn has a great one. They are also vulnerable to
just about any kind of passing attack, and Jason Campbell has been improving
with every game. The Tigers regularly eat up non-conference foes. The only fear
is a huge letdown by the Tigers, with Arkansas next on the schedule. It's
possible, but we doubt it.

The pick: Auburn.


Oklahoma State -6½ over Colorado: The Cowboys are for real. Last week, they were
a bit lethargic on offense and still dominated Iowa State 38-7. They're led by
quarterback Donovon Woods and running back Vernand Morency, one of the best
backs in the country. In four games, the closest any opponent has come was in
their opener, a 31-20 victory at UCLA.
Colorado is 3-1 after a heart-breaking loss at Missouri last week. Their
victories have come against Colorado State, Washington State and North Texas.
Last week, star running back Bobby Purify partially separated his shoulder. The
injury may limit his playing time this week. He's listed as questionable but
practiced Wednesday.

The pick: Oklahoma State, who's great running game plays to a Colorado weakness.


Georgia -12½ over Tennessee: We've been waiting for the real Georgia team to
arrive and last week it finally did, annihilating LSU. On the same hand,
Tennessee got a spanking at home against Auburn. It was the Volunteers' second
defeat and for the most part ended their season.
While we don't expect Tennessee to play man defense against Georgia's receivers
like LSU did, we do expect the Bulldogs to dominate once more. Georgia won 41-14
at Tennessee last year, and could repeat that effort here. The Bulldogs also get
star LB Odell Thurman back from a three-game suspension.

The pick: Georgia.


USC -7 over California: This is the big one. It's the one USC has been waiting
for all year. Last year, Cal beat USC in overtime and nearly cost the Trojans
their season. USC salvaged a piece of the national title. This time Cal is not
going to sneak up on them. The Bears have averaged 49 points a game in victories
over Air Force, New Mexico State and Oregon State. USC must decide if it's going
to double WR Geoff McArthur or WR Chase Lyman, who caught five balls from Aaron
Rodgers against Oregon State for 176 yards.
Pete Carroll has done a masterful job with the Trojans. Their victory two weeks
ago at Stanford was a testimony to the coaching staff and the coolness of the
team. Trailing 28-17 at halftime, the defense completely shut down Stanford in
the second half. QB Matt Leinart led the Trojans on some clutch drives. While it
might be a shootout, USC has most of the advantages.

The pick: USC (best bet).


Maryland -12½ over Georgia Tech: Last week, Georgia Tech was demolished by
Miami. QB Reggie Ball was undressed by the Hurricanes and didn't come close on
any big plays. He can expect more of the same against Maryland.
The Terrapins' only blemish is a non-conference loss in OT at West Virginia.
Their 23-20 win over Northern Illinois in the season opener was far more
impressive than first believed. The Terps have won their last seven ACC home
games by an average of 17 points. Their only home loss to an ACC rival in the
last three years was to Florida State.

The pick: Maryland.


Kentucky +6 vs. Alabama: We expect the Kentucky team that played tough at
Florida and beat Indiana to show up Saturday night against an undermanned
Alabama team. Kentucky only seems to get up for certain games. After being
embarrasseded by Ohio last week, we expect the Wildcats to bounce back and
defeat the Tide at home. Alabama is again having quarterback problems and will
again start the ineffective Marc Guillon. In the last two weeks, Guillon threw
for a 57 yards against Arkansas and 66 yards against South Carolina. That's not
going to get it done.

The pick: Kentucky in a mild upset.


Hawaii -18 over Nevada: The Warriors play at a higher level at home. The last
two years they've blown away everyone except Boise State. Last week's home win
over Tulsa doesn't prove much, but Nevada seems made to order for the Warriors'
attack. UNLV ran well on Nevada last week, scoring four touchdowns in the fourth
quarter.

The pick: Hawaii in another expected romp.


Passing thoughts.............

BYU has been playing its best football in two years since the return of QB John
Beck a few weeks ago. UNLV looked like it had quit on John Robinson (stunning
home loss to Utah State), until Robinson announced last week that this is his
last year. The news might've woken them up, but they still seem to be up against
in Provo … Which LSU team will show up at Florida? The one that's dazed and
confused after being slapped around by Georgia, or the one with the great
defense that wants revenge for its only defeat last year? … UTEP, under Mike
Price, is much improved and catches Fresno on a down week after a loss (to La.
Tech) that spoiled their BCS chances … Pitt coach Walt Harris says Temple always
give them a hard time. Hard to believe this Temple team will give anyone a hard
time this season … East Carolina, despite getting blown out by West Virginia and
last week by Louisville (59-7), are still favored by more than a field goal at
home against Tulane. Which tells about how bad the guys in Las Vegas think
Tulane is … Arkansas State continues to impress, nearly beating Mississippi on
the road last week. Normally they'd seem like a live dog at MTSU this week, but
it marks their third straight road game in three weeks … Northern Ill. doesn't
seem like the type of team to take a week off, which they could easily do at UCF
this week. Talk about teams quitting! It sure looks like George O'Leary's team
has gone south for the winter … Texas Tech hosting Nebraska doesn't figure to be
a pretty game with Nebraska's defense (and lack of offense). But under 54 might
not be bad way to go … Michigan's lost only two Big Ten games at home in four
years. We'll be surprised if Minnesota can win at Ann Arbor … When was the last
time you saw Penn State getting 11 points at home? If they were ever going to
make a stand this season this would seem the perfect spot against a Purdue team
so full of itself after crushing the Irish. But one has to wonder, no matter how
much their defense has improved, how are the Lions going to be able to outscore
the Kyle Orton scoring machine? Orton could be Purdue's best Heisman chance
since Bob Griese … If you're wondering why the South Carolina line has dropped
it's due to the doubtful status of Gamecock QB Dondrial Pinkins. With an
outstanding South Carolina defense and a weak Mississippi offense coupled with
the loss of Pinkins, perhaps under 39 in that contest would be worth a look.