NFL Plays 10/10

[Nalordo]

Not a bad week in the NFL (especially if you ignore the foolish over/under bets), here are the results:

WIN - 1 UNIT - EAGLES -9
LOSS - 1 UNIT - UNDER 34.5 PATRIOTS/BILLS
WIN - 5 UNITS - COLTS -3.5
LOSS - 3 UNITS - PANTHERS -3.5
WIN - 3 UNITS - ARIZONA +3
LOSS - 2 UNITS - OVER 36.5 NEW YORK/MIAMI
PUSH - 3 UNITS - TAMPA BAY +3
LOSS - 4 UNITS - TITANS -3
WIN - 2 UNITS - RAMS -3.5
WIN - 3 UNITS - CHIEFS +3

Record this week: 5-4-1
Record to date: 11-11-2
Units this week: +4.00 (Not including vig)
Units to date: +4.00 (Not including vig)

Plays to follow.

[Nalordo]

I'm not going to post my "No Play" games any more to save both reader's time as well as my own.

Summary of Plays:
2 UNITS - OAKLAND +9
2 UNITS - NEW YORK +3.5
4 UNITS - MINNESOTA -4
1 UNIT - ARIZONA +1
4 UNITS - BALMITORE -1

Oakland Raiders @
Indianapolis Colts (-9)

As turnovers tend to be the most fickle stat in football, I have had a tendency to bet on teams the week after they had a bad game turnover wise. I have no data to prove that this is a good bet, but it has done alright by me in the past. It doesn't hurt that the Colts defense is not substantially better than the Chief's defense. If he doesn't turn the ball over, Kerry Collins will move the ball on the weak Colt D. I suspect a high scoring game here, but probably within one touchdown by games end.

Pick: 2 UNITS - OAKLAND +9

New York Giants @
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Everyone seems to be all over the Cowboys on this game from what I'm hearing. I don't completely understand why. Quite frankly, I really like the Giants here, but from reading other analysis, I've been talked down to a smaller play on this game. Bill Parcells' teams are always in the game, always. It blows me away, I mean, if he was coaching the Dolphins, I have no doubt they'd be 2-2. He is proof that coaching matters when it is done right. All that being said, his teams still stink. The Giants are the better team right now, and while Parcells might win this game with his coaching, I don't see more than a field goal win by the Cowboys.

Play: 2 UNITS - NEW YORK +3.5

Minnesota Vikings (-4) @
Houston Texans

I'm already a little concerned about this play, but I'm going to make it anyway. The Vikings are pillow soft. It's kind of depressing, so much talent, such a fun offense to watch, but yet they don't have that killer instinct to put teams away. The Texans have been about as good as I expected them to be this season (which was slightly above average). The Vikings are just so much better. The key here is that Minnesota tends to run up the score against mediocre defenses (which is what I view the Texans as having).

Play: 4 UNITS - MINNESOTA -4

Arizona Cardinals @
San Francisco 49ers (-1)

This one scares me a little too. By my rankings, the 49ers are the second worst team in the NFL (only beating Miami). The Cardinals are actually higher on my list than many other people likely view them. I've now won money by wagering on them the past two weekends. What scares me is that the Cardinals are now likely relieved to have a win, while the 49ers will play tough here knowing this is an oppenent they can beat. Still, by my ratings, this line is wrong, so I'm going to make a small play.

Play: 1 UNIT - ARIZONA +1

Baltimore Ravens (-1) @
Washington Redskins

Guh? And even more "Guh?" is that when this game first came out it was Redskins -1. What the hell? I'll admit the Ravens offense is abysmal, but still, what have the Redskins done this season to warrant being favored in this game (when the line opened)? This line should be Ravens -3.5, and I still would probably bet on the Ravens. Sure, they didn't look great against the Chiefs, but remember, that was a team with a great offense, and a defense that was desperate to look servicable in that game. Ravens should win this one with ease.

Play: 4 UNITS - BALTIMORE