Thursday's Service Plays & Request Thread

[parker1]

big al

big als plays are...

houston
dodgers

[mary]

DR BOB

Houston (+17) 19 SOUTHERN MISS 30
07-Oct-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Houston played horribly last week in Memphis, but the line has adjusted to that debacle and the Cougars remain underrated. Houston is an experienced team (15 returning starters) coming off a Bowl season, so they’re not as bad as their 1-4 mark would lead you to believe. I figured Houston’s offense to struggle some this season without big play receiver Brandon Middleton (55 catches at 22.7 ypc last season as a senior) and the Cougars have been a bit below average on that side of the ball this season, averaging 5.2 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.5 yppl on defense. Leading rusher Anthony Evans will miss his second straight game this week and I rate the Houston offense at 0.55 yppl worse than an average Division 1A attack. The Cougars should mount a good rush attack even without Evans in this game, as Southern Miss continues to have trouble defending the run, allowing 5.4 yards per rushing play to a schedule of teams that combines to average just 4.3 yprp on offense. The Eagles are still good against the pass (4.2 yards per pass play against teams that average just 4.9 yppp on offense), but they’re below average defensively overall (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average just 4.5 yppl on offense) and will allow Houston to move the ball with decent success in this game (my math model projects 4.9 yppl). Southern Miss has been below average offensively as well, averaging just 4.7 yppl against teams that combine to allow 4.9 yppl on defense, and that unit will probably enjoy below average success against a Houston defense that actually rates as above average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that average a combined 5.7 yppl on offense). Houston will be very competitive in this game from the line of scrimmage, but the Cougars have been killed by their special teams so far this season, as that unit rates at a horrendous -7.0 points per game. Southern Miss isn’t very good on special teams either (-0.8 points), but they are likely to enjoy better field position because of the Cougars poor coverage teams. Even with a 6 point special teams edge, my math model still favors Southern Miss by just 15 points in this game and Houston applies to a decent 42-15-1 ATS conference bounce-back situation that plays on big conference road dogs that are 3 games or more below .500 against the number for the season. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion in this game at +17 points or more. Thursday,October 07
College Best Bets 13-4 on a Star Basis Last Week!!
College Best Bets Now 25-10 on a Star Basis Last 3 Weeks!!
All Football Best Bets Now 46-18 on a Star Basis Last 3 Weeks!!
9 College Best Bets for just $30 ($25 for Members)!
My win streak continued on Saturday, as I was 4-1 on my College Best Bets after winning a 3-Star on Thursday night and losing a 2-Star on Friday. Overall, it was a 5-2 record with all three 3-Star Best Bets winning, for a total of 13-4 on a Star Basis. The winners were 3-Stars on Navy, 3-Stars on Miami-Florida, 3-Stars on Troy State, 2-Stars on Northern Illinois and 2-Stars on Missouri. The losses were 2-Stars on New Mexico and 2-Stars on Houston. Most of the wins were easy, but Navy and Missouri were pretty close. However, Navy out-gained Air Force 5.8 yards per play to 5.1 yppl as an underdog, so that was a deserved win and Missouri out-gained Colorado 5.3 yppl to 4.5 yppl in their 8 point win (which would normally result in an 11 point win). That Missouri game was only a 2-Star at -7 points or less, which was the line on Friday night when I take my official line. The line eventually went to 8 and 8 1/2 by game-time, but it wasn't a play at those numbers. The New Mexico game was only a Best Bet at +10 points or more and the line closed at +9 1/2, but it was a solid +10 most of the day on Thursday, so that one counts as a Best Bet loss. My Strong Opinions continue to do well also, as they went 4-2 this past Saturday with wins on Army, Toledo, UCLA, and UTEP and losses on Tulsa and the Auburn-Tennessee Over, which lost by 1/2 a point.

After a slow start, I am now a very profitable 31-19 on a Star Basis on my College Best Bets (25-10 the last 3 weeks) and a very profitable 54-31 on all Football Best Bets this season (NFL is 23-12 on a Star Basis). Strong Opinions are 14-9 in College and 7-3-1 in the NFL.

This is a great time of the year for me, as my math model now applies and it's easy to find games in which the disparity between public perception and reality is large enough to give us plenty of good line value plays, along with other Best Bets that are based on strong situations. My statistical match-up indicators also start applying this time of year and those indicators were 3-0 for me last weekend with Navy, Miami-Florida, and Troy State. There are lots of Best Bets this weekend, as I take advantage of bad lines before the public starts to realize which teams are overrated and which teams are underrated.

9 College Best Bets - Six 3-Star Star Best Bets!!
I have 9 College Football Best Bets this week, one on Thursday night and 8 on Saturday. My 3-Star Best Bets or higher are 10-1 so far this Football season (NFL and College) and I have 6 College 3-Star Best Bets this week and two of them are a 1/2 point line move from being 4-Star Best Bets. I also have 6 College Strong Opinions, including the other Thursday night game, and you can get my 9 College Best Bets, along with my 6 Strong Opinions for just $30 ($25 for Members) by clicking here for this week’s 9 College Best Bets and 6 Strong Opinions.

NFL/College Combo Package for just $50 ($40 for Members)!
5 NFL Best Bets - Three 3-Stars!!
I also have 5 NFL Best Bets, including three 3-Star Best Bets, and my NFL Best Bets are an incredible 21-8 on a Star Basis the last 3 weeks. You can get my 14 College and NFL Best Bets, my 11 Strong Opinions, and my math model predictions on every game all together at a discounted price by clicking here for my NFL/College Combo package.


Math Plays Start Off Winning!
My College Math model predictions started off the season well, as they were 31-22 picking every game (20-12 when the difference was 4 points or more from the actual pointspread) and 5-1 on plays that were given a 57% chance or higher of covering mathematically. The math model predictions, with predicted yardage and turnovers for each game, are available with my Best Bets packages each week (and for seasonal subscribers).

Free Analysis
Each week during the season I will continue to provide more free information (about 45 college games analyzed for free each week) than any other web-site and I hope you enjoyed that analysis last season and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. This week's analysis on 34 games is available in the College Free Analysis Section.


Seasonal Packages
All NFL and College Best Bets Through Super Bowl for just $535!!
Season packages for football are available and they will save you money from buying weekly packages while also supplying you with additional information not available to non-subscribers – such as getting early email notices on some upcoming Best Bets on Tuesday instead of waiting until all Best Bets are released on Thursday. A full season of football Best Bets and Strong Opinions for both NFL and College Football (with Math Plays and including Bowl games and NFL Playoffs) are available for just $535, or you can opt to subscribe for NFL only ($285) or College Only ($285) packages. I also have a package that gives you all of my Football and Basketball Best Bets through the NBA playoffs in 2005 for just $1675 – which saves you $1400 from the approximately $3100 it would cost you to pay for all Football and Basketball Best Bets on a weekly/daily basis (at the member discounted price).

Click here to subscribe to one of my Seasonal Packages.

[savage1]

Phil Stool's(I mean Steele) AAC game of the week is on Maryland.

[tinfw17]

Ouch! Phil Stool

So why do you call Steele by Stool? Is it because it takes 5 minutes of talking to get the daily play?

[savage1]

Tinfw17-I didn't have anything specific in mind;I simply thought it was a funny play on words.
Now that you mention it, though, that boring repetitive 5 minute speech he gives every day about his late phone service, PowerSweep, how he always tells everyone about the losers as well as the winners, blah, blah, blah is as good a reason as any to refer to him as Phil Stool(how about bullstool? ),

[CoverBoy]

Savage

So Steele's play in on Maryland ... Is that his comp play for Wednesday?

I'm glad you got it - now I don't have to waste precious minutes of my life. lol

Seriously his comp plays arent so bad.

This Saturday he's coming with another 5 * - only the 2nd of the college football season.

The line will definitely move on that one. Check out the moves starting at 11:05 Sat. A.M. -- the biggest move will be his 5*

Take care,

-cb

[10DimeBry]

Bryan Leonard

Anyone have his C-USA GOM? He was on Larry Grossman show today, anyone hear that??

Thanks,

Bryan

[tinfw17]

Do you know anyone who may get Steele's 5* play this Saturday?Last time he gave out Iowa State -3.5 but the line was 6 at the same time the play came out. He lets members of PowerSweep get it at 10:15 central time on the day of the game and I was on at exactly that time. I went over to Millennium because he said they were holding the line 45 minutes after his play so that members could play it at -3.5 but it was at -6 there. I played it at -6 and it was a lucky choke job by N. Illinois.

[tinfw17]

Mike Neri

This guy sells his service on youwinnow.com as well as his own site. www.nerisports.com. He was 1-1 yesterday but he has won for me in the past.


Mike Neri Sports - Late Service

Thursday October 7, 2004

BASEBALL

Atlanta w/Hampton +120 Risk 1 Unit to make 1.2 Units 4:05 EST

St Louis w/Marquis -180 Risk 1 Unit to make .55 Units 8:15 EST

Back TOMORROW after 12:35 EST for our next update!

[Black-Cat]

Thanks!

Originally posted by illjaunt
Tom Freese is a solid capper, ive used and won with him before, he excels in his totals plays especially... GL


Thanks! I appreciate all your help!

[Black-Cat]

Need a Play for tonite in CFB!

Looking for a bail out play? Another words looking for HELP! Who to play or follow would be much appreciated....


Thanks,

Black-Cat

[savage1]

Coverboy-I agree;his comps are pretty good-a LOT better than that hideous 5 minute monotonous daily monologue one has to listen to first before receiving the selection.
For those interested, he gave out Rice as the early bird play of the week on Monday, Penn State on tuesday and Colorado as comp. on Wednesday.
Re: Saturday-just think back to the EF Hutton commercial-"When EF Hutton speaks, people listen"-same thing here with the 5 star and associated immediate jump in the line;as we found in in the NFL pre-season his picks dodn't always win, and if you go with those big jumps in the line ocer any period of time, you are taking a big chance.

[maxell]

Savage 1

Colorado was his underdog game of the week. On Wednesday, he gave out Penn St. His total play of the week was on Seattle over.

[CoverBoy]

Savage

Thanks for taking one for the team today ... Just to listen to that annoying begging voice for 1 minute - let alone 5 ... is enough to make anyone's stomach just twist into knots.

IOU one, Buddy

Will try to call in tomorrow morning and then post it.

Fridays he gives out his NFL Over / Under play of the Week .... " the play that many times becomes a star rated play on Sunday "

LOL - does that sound familiar ?

-cb

[CoverBoy]

Maxell

When did he give out Seattle OVER ?