Newsletters

[maxell]

GOLDSHEET

Houston at SOUTHERN MISS (Thursday)...Since Cal game was postponed due to hurricane warnings Sept. 16, USM playing 1st game at Roberts Stadium, where Golden Eagles were 4-1 as chalk in '03. USM's jr. QB Almond was at his best vs. Houston LY, completing 17 of 26 for 237 yds. & 2 TDP in 31-10 victory.

Clemson at VIRGINIA (Thursday)...Dog has covered 7 of past 8 in series, with last 3 meetings decided by total of just 10 pts.

Unlv at BYU (Friday)...BYU was able to overcome 5 TOs (just 2 for UNLV) in 27-20 OT win vs. Rebels LY. UNLV has covered 5 of last 7 in series, all as an underdog.

New Mexico at AIR FORCE...NM has covered 4 of past 5 in series, and only spread loss came in 38-31 OT at AF in '02 (Lobos were 6-pt. dog). NM 3-3-5 defense smothered Falcon option LY, holding AF to season-low 158 yds. rushing in 24-12 victory in Albuquerque.

Cincinnati at ARMY...Surprisingly, Army (on 19-game losing streak) has covered 4 straight in series (all as underdog; DNP in '99 & '02), including narrow 33-29 setback at Cincy LY. Cadets led 29-26 until Bearcats scored on 6-yd. run with 6 mins. on clock.

Louisiana Tech at AUBURN...Classic "sandwich" spot for Auburn, which is off Tennessee tussle with Arkansas showdown on deck. Tigers narrowly escaped in similar scheduling situation vs. La Tech in past two meetings ('00 & '01), winning (not covering) by only 10 & 7 pts. ('01 in OT).

Eastern Michigan at BALL STATE...Ball State (10-pt. chalk) highly-aroused for this rematch following 38-14 loss at EMU late LY. Cardinals felt they gave game away, as Eagles traveled just 38 total yds. for 4 TDs following a blocked punt & 3 TOs. EMU just 3-9 as road dog last 2+ years, while BSU is 3-0 as rare home chalk over same period.

Lsu at FLORIDA...MAJOR payback game for LSU, whose only loss in '03 came in stunning 19-7 loss vs. Florida at Baton Rouge. Tiger offense feels it has something to prove after failing to score (only TD came on 80-yd. punt return).

Tennessee at GEORGIA...UT in serious quadruple revenge mode, which includes humbling 41-14 thrashing at Knoxville LY--Vols worst home defeat since 31-0 shutout in '94. UGA star QB Greene was red-hot, hitting 22 of 27 for 228 yds.

Nevada at HAWAII...Host has covered 4 straight in series. Revenge-minded UH was at a distinct scheduling disadvantage vs. Nevada LY as it was the 2nd game of rare back-to-back tilts on mainland in mid-November. Warriors are 1-5 vs. spread in that negative situation past 6 chances.

Kansas State at KANSAS...Ascending KU believes it has its best chance in eons to end 11-game losing streak (10 straight spread losses) vs. struggling rival KSU. Jayhawks lost starting QB Whittemore early in LY's 41-7 mashing in Manhattan.

Georgia Tech at MARYLAND...Maryland "O" out for redemption after generating only a meager FG in 7-3 loss at Atlanta LY--Terps worst output since 45-0 shutout in '97. Maryland soph QB Statham (10 of 22 with 1 int.) especially eager for another crack at Jackets after being forced to play most of game when starter McBrien went out in 2nd Q with injury and backup Evans didn't make trip.

Kent State at MIAMI-OHIO...Kent State QB Cribbs went toe-to-toe with M-O A-A QB Roethlisberger, throwing for 349 yds, running for 42 yds. & accounting for 4 TDs in competitive 38-30 loss year ago.

Minnesota at MICHIGAN...Fired-up Minnesota still painfully recalls blowing seemingly insurmountable 28-7 lead in 4th Q in eventual 38-35 loss vs. Michigan--Wolverines biggest comeback in school history! Michigan scored 31 fourth-quarter points in that miracle comeback. Gophers, who haven't won in Little Brown Jug series since '86, are just 2-8 as road dog since '01.

Illinois at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU has covered 6 of past 7 in series (DNP in '01 & '02), and Illinois just 2-14 vs. spread last 16 on board.

Uab at MISSISSIPPI STATE...MSU now 3-14 vs. spread last 17 on board.

Stanford at NOTRE DAME...ND's 3rd-year HC Willingham, who served as Stanford mentor for 7 seasons before taking over in South Bend, has crushed Cardinal in both meetings, winning by 24 & 50 pts. in '02 & '03 respectively. You can be sure Stanford bitterly remembers how Irish ran a fake punt on 4th-and-17 at midfield with 4:02 left in Willingham's return to "The Farm" in 57-7 battering LY.

Wisconsin at OHIO STATE...Wisconsin has held upper hand in series lately, covering 5 of last 6, thanks to Badger "D" that has limited OSU to just 17 ppg during that span. Prime example LY, as Buckeyes mustered just 261 yds. (69 YR) in 17-10 non-covering victory in Madison.

Texas vs. Oklahoma (at Dallas)...Rival OU has been the major stumbling block for UT HC Mack Brown, who has dropped 4 straight vs. OU (by avg. 44-14 margin!), including sloppy (Horns committed 6 TOs) 65-13 thumping LY. Sooners '03 Heisman winner QB J. White was white-hot LY, completing 17 of 21 for 290 yds. & 4 TDP before resting most of final period.

Purdue at PENN STATE...Hot vs. cold. Purdue is 12-4 vs. spread last 16 reg. season games, while Penn State only 6-11 vs. number last 1+Ys. And don't look for letdown following Notre Dame epic for Boilers, who have covered 5 of past 6 in games immediately following Irish clash.

Smu at RICE...Rice is 8-1-1 vs. spread last 10; SMU just 6-11 last 1+Ys.

Ole Miss at SOUTH CAROLINA...USC defense (one of many ) so happy Ole Miss gunslinger Eli Manning has moved on to NFL after he connected on 30 of 42 for 391 yds. & 3 TDP in 43-40 victory at Oxford LY.

Cal at SOUTHERN CAL...Cal has covered 7 of past 9 vs. hated Pac-10 rival USC. Bears have nearly made it a habit of springing upsets vs. Trojans, having achieved it 4 times since '96 (as avg. 12-pt. dog) while narrowly missing in 30-28 loss in '02.

Pitt at TEMPLE...Pitt has struggled some vs. instate rival Temple recently, going just 1-4 vs. spread last 5 visits to Philly. Owl QB Washington hurt Panthers with his arms & legs in spread-covering 30-16 loss LY, as he passed for 278 yds. & rushed for 72.

Arizona at UCLA...UCLA thrilled to play in Rose Bowl after being forced to travel to the Arizona desert in past 3 series clashes (DNP in '01). Nonetheless, Bruins did win all 3, covering 2.

San Diego State at WYOMING...SDS has garnered 5 straight in series (4-0-1 vs. spread). And LY, Aztecs led comfortably 25-6 in 4th Q before Wyo scored twice on TD passes in closing 7 minutes of 25-20 final.

ON-LINE BONUS

North Carolina State at NORTH CAROLINA...Visitor has covered 4 straight in series, and UNC now 3-11 vs. spread (2-12 SU) in unimposing Kenan Stadium last 2+ years. Tar Heels (17-pt. dog) notched "backdoor" cover LY, aided by 76-yd TD pass in final 2:30 of 47-34 Wolfpack win.

Indiana at NORTHWESTERN...NW has covered 6 of past 8 in series (DNP in '98 & '99), and IU just 2-8 vs. spread last 10 in Big Ten play. Wildcats jumped to 17-0 1st-Q lead, but needed OT to pull out 37-31 victory vs. Hoosiers LY.

Nebraska at TEXAS TECH...Nebraska making its trip to Lubbock since '00, and TT is 11-3 vs. spread at home since '01.

Virginia Tech at WAKE FOREST...First true road game of year for Virginia Tech, but Gobblers internal clock "well-set" here as this their 4th straight start at 12:30 P.M. (EST), barring any time change.

San Jose State at WASHINGTON...UW just 4-10 as DD home chalk since '99, and Huskies only 4-12 vs. spread last 16 on board

[maxell]

ROCKY'S
PUBLISHERS PREFERRED PLAY (4-1)
NOTRE DAME -4 ov Stanford
Tough assignment for any team in the land making their first road trip of the season in the month of October, especially egghead student athletes from Stanford who could find this jaunt on the road overwhelming. But those of you who have been with us for a while, know that we cover the Irish pretty well, and know outstanding matchups when we see them, and today is one. Stanford just not as physical as Irish up front, and thats all she wrote. Battle of the trenches will decide this and it does not help the Cardinals to be in a Pac Ten sandwich either. Cards 0-2 last 2 matchups with Irish, so you might think that WiIllingham could know something, destroying Stanford last season 57-7 on the road, and the Irish were nowhere near the team that they are this season with a much improved interior. Last time they met in South Bend the Irish laid them out in that matchup as well 31-7 as 8.5 pt chalk. Most everyone I will presume will be against the Irish, after all they are 1-9 ATS before Navy, 2-8 ATS vs teams with a win rate of (.600) or better, but Irish own series at 8-3, Cards 2-7 last 9 games on the road - and have rookie QB making 1st road start in tough venue. Irish didn't benefit from the turnover as they had in previous games this season, just as I told you they wouldn't against veteran QB Orton. Irish had edges in first downs (28-22), passing yards (460-413) and even had a clock advantage, but Boilermakers took care of the ball with no turnovers, not even a fumble. Won't be the case today for Cardinals. Road teams making first road trip in OCTOBER have been BAD INVESTMENTS at 5-15 ATS last 20....Irish get this as big as they want as they will wear down this Stanford ball club in the 2nd half. NOTRE DAME 34-17

10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK (3-2)
OHIO +9 ov Marshall
Home series with host covering 5 of last 6, and important stat here is that OHIO is a splendid 5-0 ATS as host in revenge. Marshall 2-5 ATS as road favorites last 7 and just 6-19 ATS in MAC road games. Ohio coming on and upset of Kentucky not a fluke, as Ohio should have gotten win at Pittsburgh earlier in the season. Ohio fine balance gives them shot at moving the ball consistently, and OU has the better defense, making for a fine combination of perhaps another outright dog winner. OHIO 28-27

10* NEWSLETTER GAME OF THE WEEK (4-1)
OKLAHOMA -7 ov Texas
until the Longhorns can prove they can get over the "hump" will continue to buck them in this spot until they come up with a win. Longhorns have yet to face a passing team in the class of the Sooners and their Heismann candidate QB, so how will they react in practice, when they can not come near duplicating what the Sooners can do in the actual game? Preparation and rep's are whats important here and no way the 'Horns can get ready properly, I mean who on their "scout" defense and offense can replicate the Sooners? None, and thats the ball game. Sooners have dominated this matchup winning the last 4 and covering all 4 in double digit fashion. True its been a dog series covering 13 of 16 meetings, and Horns have a decent 5-1 spread run in Big 12 action. Figure QB White to air it out this week against Texas who had trouble with Hogs triggerman Jones who burned them for 283 yards. On defense Sooners front 7 just too physically tough for Horns to handle. Red River rivalry all Sooner red again and this time we will call it OKLAHOMA 35-14

DOG POUND
CALIFORNIA +7.5 at Southern Cal
UTEP +20 at Fresno State
N CAROLINA +11 ov Nc State
CLEMSON +16.5 ov Virginia
WEST MICHIGAN +15 ov Toledo

[lawman1]

maxell

Maxell-

Thanks for the Goldsheet. Do you happen to have their key releases they put out every week? They normally do 3 NCAA and 3 NFL games. Thanks again.

-LM1

[maxell]

lawman1

Sorry, I got lucky and happened to see it on another site and that's all that was there. If I come across the rest, I'll post it.

[wizardofoddz]

The Red Sheet

9, 2004 VOLUME 36, NUMBER 6
TEXAS TECH 44 - Nebraska 24 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Texas Tech minus 6½, and is now minus 7.
WThe Red Sheete went with the Huskers the past couple of weeks on Pointwise, suffering through a
nailbiting win at Pitt, after quick 2-TD ******, & losing in an inept offensive showing (11
FDs) while hosting a Kansas team that they simply own. Get this: Nebraska has reached
40 pts in only 2 of its last 26 games, & is in off rushing outputs of just 123 & 139 yds. Simply
unheard of. Enter the Raiders, & possibly the most explosive offense in the land, when they
get cooking. Tech QB Cumbie already has a dozen TD passes & nearly 2,100 yds. Raiders
couldn't handle Okies last week, but are super 18-4 ATS at home off a loss. Haven't met
since '01, when Huskers used 335 RYs for 10-pt win. It won't happen here.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 89
MARYLAND 37 - Georgia Tech 14 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Maryland minus 11½, and is now minus 11.
Since the arrival of Ralph Friedgen in '01, the Terp gridiron fortunes have taken a decided
step up. He has posted an enviable 25-9 record, on field, along with a highly profitable
spread log of 26-13. Last year's loss to the Jackets represents one of those rare misses,
when the Terps lost their starting QB in the 1st half. Maryland has struggled early with
Statham, but he clicked for 4 TD passes in last outing (38-pt cover at Duke, before taking a
bye week), & well remembers his miserable showing in that '03 setback. Jackets have
turned into a giveaway machine of late (10 in last 2 games), while QB Ball is providing little
leadership (8-of-26 with 3 INTs last week). Terps are fully focused for this revenger.
RATING: MARYLAND 89
MIAMI-OHIO 31 - Kent State 24 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 18, and is still minus 18. A year ago,
the Redhawks of Miami were one of the hot properties on the college gridiron scene, breezing
through the MAC, & posting an easy win over a respectable Louisville team, in the
GMAC Bowl. Thirteen straight wins, after an opening week stumble at Iowa. But the
departure of stellar QB Roethlisberger has taken its toll. Still a decent squad, but not the
killer of '03. Miami has turned it over 19 times in its 5 games to date. The Flashes stand at
1-4, but it easily could read 4-1. Cribbs keeps 'em in just about every affair. Ditto here.
RATING: KENT STATE 88
AUBURN 48 - Louisiana Tech 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 24, and is now minus 25. Yes, we
are well aware of the fact that the Tigers are in off Tennessee, with Arkansas dead ahead,
but can see no letup for the War Eagles, who are smoking, not only behind the running of
Williams, but the leadership mature QB Campbell. Throw in a solid rush "D", which should
negate the primary Bulldog weapon, RB Moats (236 RYs vs Fresno). The fact that Tech is
in off that shocking upset, sets this one up nicely. Did anyone say "Blind Hog" as a double
digit dog the following week? Perfect Tigers won't be looking past this.
RATING: AUBURN 88
SOUTH CAROLINA 37 - Mississippi 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at South Carolina minus 17, and is still
minus 17. At first glance, we liked the chances of the Gamecocks here, but decided to table
it as any high play, in light of the fact that, despite one of the most suffocating defenses in
the nation (8 ppg), Carolina has hardly lit up the scoreboard. However, the fact remains that
LY, the 'Cocks came within a whisker of completing the most remarkable comeback win of
the season, eventually losing to the Rebs, 43-40, after trailing 43-14 in the 3rd. Ole Miss
returns only 4 starters from that defense, so moving it should not be a problem. UM only a
couple of plays from standing at 0-5 SU, & pays the price for '03 win.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88
Arizona 19 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) -- Line opened at San Fran minus 1½, and is still minus 1½.
Things sure change. Year ago, the spread in this match was 10½ pts, with the Niners an
automatic play, as the Cards were the worst road team in the NFL. The 50-14 San Fran
drubbing was a bit more than expected, but just added to 'Zona's travelling ineptitude. This
season, however, the Cards stand at 2-0 ATS as guests, with one of their spread successes
coming at St Louis, losing by just 7 pts. Contrast that to '03's 37-13 road loss to the Rams.
Arizona is allowing only 11.5 ppg on the road,. & the Niners are shells of recent explosive
selves. Card 160 RY edge last week bodes well for their chances here.
RATING: ARIZONA 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Ball State, Wake Forest, Rice, Hawaii -- NFL: Carolina, Dallas, & Green Bay
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): Purdue (-7 to -11); Toledo (-10 to -14); California (+11½ to
+7½); Minnesota (+7 to +3½); OklahomaSt (-3 to -6½); VirginiaTech (-2½ to -5½); Hawaii (-15 to -18);
Wisconsin (+6 to +3½); NewMexico (Pick to -2½); Lafayette (Pick to -2½); Stanford (+6½ to +4½); NoIllinois
(-16 to -18); Missouri (-18 to -20); Virginia (-14½ to -16); FloridaSt (-18 to -19½); KansasSt (-1 to -2½);
EastCarolina (-2½ to -4); Kentucky (+6½ to +5) -- TIME CHANGES: FlaSt/Syr: now 7:00; Wisc/OhioSt: 3:30;
TxA&M/IowaSt: 7:00; Pitt/Temple: 12:00; NCSt/UNC: 6:00; KansSt/Kans: 7:20; Ohio/Marshall: 1:00; AF/
NMex: 6:30; Aub/LSU: 3:30; OklaSt/ColoSt: 3:30; BallSt/EMich: 3:30; Fla/LSU: 7:45; Ucla/Ariz: 6:30; WkForest/
VaTech: 12:00; Rut/Vandy: 8:00; Mizzou/Baylor: 10:00; Ala/Ky: 12:30; SoCaro/Miss: 1:00........
RED SHEET ONLINE
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
__________________
The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.
Reply With Quote

[wizardofoddz]

GOLDSHEET

Houston at SOUTHERN MISS (Thursday)...Since Cal game was postponed due to hurricane warnings Sept. 16, USM playing 1st game at Roberts Stadium, where Golden Eagles were 4-1 as chalk in '03. USM's jr. QB Almond was at his best vs. Houston LY, completing 17 of 26 for 237 yds. & 2 TDP in 31-10 victory.

Clemson at VIRGINIA (Thursday)...Dog has covered 7 of past 8 in series, with last 3 meetings decided by total of just 10 pts.

Unlv at BYU (Friday)...BYU was able to overcome 5 TOs (just 2 for UNLV) in 27-20 OT win vs. Rebels LY. UNLV has covered 5 of last 7 in series, all as an underdog.

New Mexico at AIR FORCE...NM has covered 4 of past 5 in series, and only spread loss came in 38-31 OT at AF in '02 (Lobos were 6-pt. dog). NM 3-3-5 defense smothered Falcon option LY, holding AF to season-low 158 yds. rushing in 24-12 victory in Albuquerque.

Cincinnati at ARMY...Surprisingly, Army (on 19-game losing streak) has covered 4 straight in series (all as underdog; DNP in '99 & '02), including narrow 33-29 setback at Cincy LY. Cadets led 29-26 until Bearcats scored on 6-yd. run with 6 mins. on clock.

Louisiana Tech at AUBURN...Classic "sandwich" spot for Auburn, which is off Tennessee tussle with Arkansas showdown on deck. Tigers narrowly escaped in similar scheduling situation vs. La Tech in past two meetings ('00 & '01), winning (not covering) by only 10 & 7 pts. ('01 in OT).

Eastern Michigan at BALL STATE...Ball State (10-pt. chalk) highly-aroused for this rematch following 38-14 loss at EMU late LY. Cardinals felt they gave game away, as Eagles traveled just 38 total yds. for 4 TDs following a blocked punt & 3 TOs. EMU just 3-9 as road dog last 2+ years, while BSU is 3-0 as rare home chalk over same period.

Lsu at FLORIDA...MAJOR payback game for LSU, whose only loss in '03 came in stunning 19-7 loss vs. Florida at Baton Rouge. Tiger offense feels it has something to prove after failing to score (only TD came on 80-yd. punt return).

Tennessee at GEORGIA...UT in serious quadruple revenge mode, which includes humbling 41-14 thrashing at Knoxville LY--Vols worst home defeat since 31-0 shutout in '94. UGA star QB Greene was red-hot, hitting 22 of 27 for 228 yds.

Nevada at HAWAII...Host has covered 4 straight in series. Revenge-minded UH was at a distinct scheduling disadvantage vs. Nevada LY as it was the 2nd game of rare back-to-back tilts on mainland in mid-November. Warriors are 1-5 vs. spread in that negative situation past 6 chances.

Kansas State at KANSAS...Ascending KU believes it has its best chance in eons to end 11-game losing streak (10 straight spread losses) vs. struggling rival KSU. Jayhawks lost starting QB Whittemore early in LY's 41-7 mashing in Manhattan.

Georgia Tech at MARYLAND...Maryland "O" out for redemption after generating only a meager FG in 7-3 loss at Atlanta LY--Terps worst output since 45-0 shutout in '97. Maryland soph QB Statham (10 of 22 with 1 int.) especially eager for another crack at Jackets after being forced to play most of game when starter McBrien went out in 2nd Q with injury and backup Evans didn't make trip.

Kent State at MIAMI-OHIO...Kent State QB Cribbs went toe-to-toe with M-O A-A QB Roethlisberger, throwing for 349 yds, running for 42 yds. & accounting for 4 TDs in competitive 38-30 loss year ago.

Minnesota at MICHIGAN...Fired-up Minnesota still painfully recalls blowing seemingly insurmountable 28-7 lead in 4th Q in eventual 38-35 loss vs. Michigan--Wolverines biggest comeback in school history! Michigan scored 31 fourth-quarter points in that miracle comeback. Gophers, who haven't won in Little Brown Jug series since '86, are just 2-8 as road dog since '01.

Illinois at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU has covered 6 of past 7 in series (DNP in '01 & '02), and Illinois just 2-14 vs. spread last 16 on board.

Uab at MISSISSIPPI STATE...MSU now 3-14 vs. spread last 17 on board.

Stanford at NOTRE DAME...ND's 3rd-year HC Willingham, who served as Stanford mentor for 7 seasons before taking over in South Bend, has crushed Cardinal in both meetings, winning by 24 & 50 pts. in '02 & '03 respectively. You can be sure Stanford bitterly remembers how Irish ran a fake punt on 4th-and-17 at midfield with 4:02 left in Willingham's return to "The Farm" in 57-7 battering LY.

Wisconsin at OHIO STATE...Wisconsin has held upper hand in series lately, covering 5 of last 6, thanks to Badger "D" that has limited OSU to just 17 ppg during that span. Prime example LY, as Buckeyes mustered just 261 yds. (69 YR) in 17-10 non-covering victory in Madison.

Texas vs. Oklahoma (at Dallas)...Rival OU has been the major stumbling block for UT HC Mack Brown, who has dropped 4 straight vs. OU (by avg. 44-14 margin!), including sloppy (Horns committed 6 TOs) 65-13 thumping LY. Sooners '03 Heisman winner QB J. White was white-hot LY, completing 17 of 21 for 290 yds. & 4 TDP before resting most of final period.

Purdue at PENN STATE...Hot vs. cold. Purdue is 12-4 vs. spread last 16 reg. season games, while Penn State only 6-11 vs. number last 1+Ys. And don't look for letdown following Notre Dame epic for Boilers, who have covered 5 of past 6 in games immediately following Irish clash.

Smu at RICE...Rice is 8-1-1 vs. spread last 10; SMU just 6-11 last 1+Ys.

Ole Miss at SOUTH CAROLINA...USC defense (one of many ) so happy Ole Miss gunslinger Eli Manning has moved on to NFL after he connected on 30 of 42 for 391 yds. & 3 TDP in 43-40 victory at Oxford LY.

Cal at SOUTHERN CAL...Cal has covered 7 of past 9 vs. hated Pac-10 rival USC. Bears have nearly made it a habit of springing upsets vs. Trojans, having achieved it 4 times since '96 (as avg. 12-pt. dog) while narrowly missing in 30-28 loss in '02.

Pitt at TEMPLE...Pitt has struggled some vs. instate rival Temple recently, going just 1-4 vs. spread last 5 visits to Philly. Owl QB Washington hurt Panthers with his arms & legs in spread-covering 30-16 loss LY, as he passed for 278 yds. & rushed for 72.

Arizona at UCLA...UCLA thrilled to play in Rose Bowl after being forced to travel to the Arizona desert in past 3 series clashes (DNP in '01). Nonetheless, Bruins did win all 3, covering 2.

San Diego State at WYOMING...SDS has garnered 5 straight in series (4-0-1 vs. spread). And LY, Aztecs led comfortably 25-6 in 4th Q before Wyo scored twice on TD passes in closing 7 minutes of 25-20 final.

ON-LINE BONUS

North Carolina State at NORTH CAROLINA...Visitor has covered 4 straight in series, and UNC now 3-11 vs. spread (2-12 SU) in unimposing Kenan Stadium last 2+ years. Tar Heels (17-pt. dog) notched "backdoor" cover LY, aided by 76-yd TD pass in final 2:30 of 47-34 Wolfpack win.

Indiana at NORTHWESTERN...NW has covered 6 of past 8 in series (DNP in '98 & '99), and IU just 2-8 vs. spread last 10 in Big Ten play. Wildcats jumped to 17-0 1st-Q lead, but needed OT to pull out 37-31 victory vs. Hoosiers LY.

Nebraska at TEXAS TECH...Nebraska making its trip to Lubbock since '00, and TT is 11-3 vs. spread at home since '01.

Virginia Tech at WAKE FOREST...First true road game of year for Virginia Tech, but Gobblers internal clock "well-set" here as this their 4th straight start at 12:30 P.M. (EST), barring any time change.

San Jose State at WASHINGTON...UW just 4-10 as DD home chalk since '99, and Huskies only 4-12 vs. spread last 16 on board

[wizardofoddz]

DOG POUND
CALIFORNIA +7.5 at Southern Cal
UTEP +20 at Fresno State
N CAROLINA +11 ov Nc State
CLEMSON +16.5 ov Virginia
WEST MICHIGAN +15 ov Toledo


Northcoast
4 Oklahoma
3 So Caraolina
3 N. D.
2missouri
2 Haw.

CKO
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCESCKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS

* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

11*ARKANSAS ST. over *Mid. Tenn. St.
Late Score Forecast:ARKANSAS ST. 38 -*Middle Tenn. St. 30

10*BALL ST. over Eastern Michigan
Late Score Forecast:*BALL ST. 45 - Eastern Michigan 27

10*OKLAHOMA over Texas (at Dallas)
Late Score Forecast:OKLAHOMA 31 - Texas 13

10*MICHIGAN STATE over Illinois
Late Score Forecast:*MICHIGAN STATE 38 - Illinois 21

HONORABLE MENTION:
AUBURN (-26) vs. Louisiana Tech—Auburn has Arkansas next, but Tigers 3-4 deep at RB, 2 deep at QB, and playing better defense than expected....

LSU (+3½) at Florida—Angry Bayou Bengals have dropped way down in the polls; coach Saban’s proud defense will bounce back after last week’s performance...

WYOMING (+3½) vs. San Diego State—Cowboys deeper, better balanced, more competent, and more confident in second year under sound coaching of Joe Glenn
__________________

[wizardofoddz]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

College

5* Usc over Cal by 21
4* Lsu over Florida by 10
3* Rutgers over Vanderbilt by 7

Upset Game of the week
Texas over Oklahoma by 3

Incredible Stat of the Week

Tennessee's Philip Fulmer has never covered the spread when he loses as an underdog, going 0-13-1 ATS


Power Sweep
Phil Steele's Power Sweep:

College

4* Oklahoma
3* South Carolina
3* Notre Dame
2* Missouri
2* N. Carolina St.
2* Hawaii

Underdog Play: California (+)


Front page banner:

College & NFL plays rated "3" or better last weekend: 5-0 SWEEP!

"1" Rated Plays on 17-7 Run

College

1 Maryland
1 Ball State
2 Wake Forest
3 Oklahoma
4 Ohio U
4 N. Carolina
5 Texas Tech
5 Hawaii


NORTHCOAST EARLY BIRD POW**
Early Bird play of the week. 4-1 this year, 69-33 over 6 years......

Rice -14 over SMU

[wizardofoddz]

Sport Reporter

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10
*NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI by 9
When things start to look too easy, and you have the 3-0 defending Super Bowl champ
on its home field against an opponent that has nothing go right for it in a long, long
time, you start looking for reasons why the Patriots dont have to cover the spread. First
of all, are you up on your Current Events NFL Home Favorites of ?6.5 or greater are 1-
9 ATS after four weeks in 2004 and were just 24-32 ATS (43%) in 2003. This game represents
the first time this season that New England head coach Bill Belichick wont
have extra time to prepare, an edge he owned going into the first three games against
the Colts and Cardinals, and shared with a rookie head coach, Mike Mularkey of
Buffalo, last Sunday when each was off a bye. The Dolphins are a desperate, 0-4 team
that nevertheless can hang in there at 1-1 in the AFC East if they can pull off an upset,
and for all their problems, the one thing Miami still has going for them is a decent pass
defense. New Englands defense, meanwhile, is apt to run out of smoke and mirrors one
of these days. For the last three seasons, the Dolphins were asked to come into Foxboro
in December cold. Miami showed, they played, they lost, they didnt cover. Now, the
calendar says its only October and thermometer reads in the mid-60s. There are your
reasons for liking the double-revenge road underdog. NEW ENGLAND, 25-16.
BEST BET
CLEVELAND over *PITTSBURGH by 5
The better quarterback, Jeff Garcia, takes points. Cleveland could have the better
defense, too. Injuries will wear down the Browns later, but its still only Week 5,
and as long as the two running backs Green and Suggs are fresh enough, and
Garcia?s back isnt acting up, the Cleveland offense is capable of doing just
enough to get by. If you want to lay points, perhaps nearly a TD, with Pittsburghs
Ben R. as your quarterback, feel free. Just remember that the advice didn?t come
from this source. Garcia riddled the Steelers defense on a Monday Night a few
seasons ago, and though the coordinator is different, many of the players are the
same, and so is the scheme. His mobility, vs. Ben R.s lack of it, is a key, and so
is every new game the veteran plays in his first season as the Browns? starting
QB, as head coach Butch Davis will be more willing to broaden the playbook for
him as they go along. When the Browns were a Sports Reporter Best Bet for a 20-
3 Opening Day win vs. Baltimore, Garcia owned a 71-6 edge in career starts over
Kyle Boller of the Ravens. Since then, he was matched up against old pros Kurt
Warner, Vinny Testaverde and Mark Brunell and went 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS. Now his
games-started edge is back to a lopsided 76-3, a number that tells you which QB
is more likely to make a game-turning mistake, or creative play, vs. an NFL
defense. CLEVELAND, 19-14.
*INDIANAPOLIS over OAKLAND by 6
Norv Nugget: In his NFL head coaching tenure since 1996, covering years with the
Redskins and this season with the Raiders, plays on Norv Turner as an underdog are 20-
11 (65%) ATS. Who knew? The last time Kerry Collins faced Tony Dungys Cover-2
defense, he and his then-Giants? offensive buddies found every seam and opening and
flaw and embarrassed Indianapolis with a 44-pointer in this building. This kind of defense
allows yards while attempting to play the percentages, but as the long as the Raiders protect
Collins and give him the necessary time, the veteran QB can probably riddle that secondary
again, especially since the secondary is already riddled by some injuries. But
that?s a big if. The blueprint on how to turn Collins into a Real Man of Genius has been
out there for some time. He doesnt move well and isnt accurate on the run. You flush
him from the pocket, and into the five-turnover toilet, like Houston did to him last week.
The Colts are off a hard-fought division win at Jacksonville, which can contribute to a
slight letdown with a look-ahead to a bye week and thenJacksonville again! INDIANAPOLIS,
33-27.
RECOMMENDED
DETROIT over *ATLANTA by 1
The Lions should be highly motivated and ticked off coming off an embarrassing loss
to Philly in their own house, and Mooch has had two weeks to prepare them to face
guys that he hired in San Francisco Falcons head coach Jim Mora, Jr. (ex-SF defensive
coordinator) and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. Very, very interesting. The
Falcons, now 4-0 with a cushion atop the AFC South, are off a tough division win
against Carolina, and in a letdown spot. Atlantas offense has faced just one strong
defense (Carolina) but still failed to surpass 200 passing yards in any game. The
Falcons offensive line has been spotty, giving up 10 sacks in the first three games.
This is a major reason why Vick has not put up impressive stats so far. Detroit has
brought good defensive pressure (10 sacks in three games). The presence of Dre Bly,
who returns from injury, should help bolster Detroits pass coverage as well help contain
Vick when he is flushed out. A major question for the Lions will be which running
back will they be handing the ball to with Kevin Jones out of the lineup, but as long as
he doesn?t fumble, were confident that the Lions will be hanging around in the fourth
quarter. DETROIT, 17-16.
TAMPA BAY over *NEW ORLEANS by 2
Believe it or not, the 0-4 SU Bucs are still in the playoff hunt. They haven?t played a division
game yet. This is #1, and they catch a break with New Orleans still expected to be missing
all-important, versatile RB Deuce McAllister. Well take Jon Gruden in a desperate situation
over Jim Haslett on most days. There are still enough playmakers on the Tampa Bay defense
to ring Aaron Brooks? Turnover Timer every other series, and without McAllister the Saints
can?t keep opposing offenses off the field. Not that Tampas offense does much damage
when it?s there, but they have been dealt some serious injury blows during the course of a
very difficult schedule to open the season and they really seem to be more inclined to circle
the wagons and suck it up with their backs against the wall than flaky New Orleans is.
TAMPA BAY, 24-22.
*DALLAS over NY GIANTS by 8
With the Cowboys off a bye, and the Giants in a second-straight road game off a win, the
Parcells Pickers will be flying high on a double dose of their Bill Pill, given their idol?s extra
week of preparation against his former employer. When the sides first met last season,
Parcells had new lackey Sean Payton, freshly booted as Giants offensive coordinator by Jim
Fassel, as a Grade A angry mole, someone who knew the New York offensive tendencies
and personnel weaknesses inside and out. Together, as +10 underdogs, they de-pantsed
Fassel in front of a Monday Night audience. By the time the second meeting arrived, the
Giants had been eliminated from playoff contention, Fassels status was lame-duck, he
started Jesse (Is My Lipstick Smudged) Palmer at QB, the Cowboys needed the game, the
line had swung by 22 points in Dallas direction, and they covered it. This time around, the
New York personnel is very different, and better focused under Tom Coughlin, an ex-assistant
and disciple of Parcells School for Lombardi Wannabes. Coughlin has surrounded himself
with a better staff than Fassels Floundering Real Men of Genius. It figures to be one of
those afternoons where the first side to blink loses, giving the straight-up edge to Dallas
because of a superior offensive line, and because Kurt (Turn Me Over) Warner takes snaps
for New York. DALLAS, 21-13.
*HOUSTON over MINNESOTA by 1
This week, Minnesotas Onterrio Smith adds his name to the prestigious list of running
backs that have or are soon to be suspended by the league for drug violations. Michael
Bennett, who is coming off injury, will start in Smiths place. Bennett played just eight
games last year and will be seeing his first live-action of the season behind two rookie tight
ends, so we?ll be expecting an ol fashioned Texas shootout on Sunday, yee haw! The Vikings
will air it out and will (as always) have a mismatch with whoever has the misfortune of
sticking Randy Moss. This could lead to some quick scores, leaving plenty of possession
time for the Texans to attack a soft Minnesota defense that has allowed 375 yards per game
? 272 passing ? and may be without linebackers Henderson and Claiborne. Jonathan
Wells stepped in nicely for Dominick Davis last week, showing that Houston (at least in the
short term) has a good system in place that can produce no matter who?s running and David
Carr is improving with every game. The Texans (9-5 ATS as home dog) are coming off the
first consecutive wins in franchise history and will be playing in front of another raucous
home crowd. Minnesota is off a bye week, but in a non-conference road situation and just
2-7 ATS since 2001 as a road favorite. The Vikes have yet to intercept a pass this season.
HOUSTON 30-29.
SIGN UP
TODAY!
3
NFL FOOTBALL
This chart provides valuable information regarding recent meetings between these teams, including which week the game was played,
who the QB?s were and what happened in the games immediately before and after. V indicates road team, H is for home team
yr wk # V score H score Visitor QB Home qb V OFF V AHEAD H OFF H AHEAD notes
2003 7 NE 19 MIA 13 Brady Fiedler W NYG W CLE W at JAX W at SD Two botched FGs by Fins allow Pats to win in OT. Brady: 24-for-34, 283 yds, 2 TD.
2003 14 MIA 0 NE 12 Fiedler Brady W at DAL L PHI W at IND W JAX Ricky Williams held to 68 rush yds. Fiedler throws 2 INTs (1 for TD), sacked 5 times in snow.
2003 5 CLE 33 PIT 13 Couch Maddox L CIN W OAK L TEN L at DEN Maddox: 11-of-24, 2 INTs, 3 sacks. Couch: 20-of-25, 2 TDs, INT. W.Green: 115 rush yds.
2003 12 PIT 13 CLE 6 Maddox Holcomb L at SF L CIN W ARI L at SEA Browns commit 5 TOs. PIT wins despite gaining just 11 1st downs and 73 pass yds.
2002 16 DET 15 ATL 36 McMahon Vick L TB L MIN L SEA L at CLE VIck: 379 total yds, 2 TD passes. Dunn rushes for 132 yds, TD. McMahon picked 3 times.
2003 9 NO 17 TB 14 Brooks B.Johnson L CAR BYE W DAL L at CAR NO wins on last-second 47-yd FG. Saints defense forces 6 TOs and collects 4 sacks.
2003 14 TB 14 NO 7 B.Johnson Brooks L at JAX W HOU W at WSH W NYG Bucs score 2 TDs in final 1:25 of 1st half and hold McAllister to 69 rush yds.
2003 2 DAL 35 NYG 32 Carter Collins L ATL BYE W STL W at WSH G-men score 18 in 3Q but lose in OT. Collins: 21-of-51, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. Barber: 41 rush yds.
2003 16 NYG 3 DAL 19 Palmer Carter L at NO L CAR W at WSH L at NO Dallas allows just 244 total yds, gets 5 sacks. Carter throws for 240 yds, TD.
2003 6 BUF 3 NYJ 30 Bledsoe Testaverde W CIN W WSH BYE W at HOU Jets have 4 takeaways, 7 sacks. Vinny throws 11 completions, 3 TDs. Henry rushes for 53 yds.
2003 14 NYJ 6 BUF 17 Pennington Bledsoe W TEN W PIT W at NYG L at TEN Pennington still rusty (15-of-29, 155 yds, INT). Henry: 169 rush yds, TD.
2003 5 SD 21 JAX 27 Brees Leftwich L at OAK BYE L at HOU L MIA Lefwich (336 yds, 2 TD) duels Brees (296, 3 TD). Tomlinson held to 38 yds on 10 rushes.
2003 3 STL 23 SEA 24 M.Hasselbeck Bulger W at ARI BYE W SF W ARI Two 4Q TD passes by Hasselbeck gives SEA (+2 TO ratio) victory. Faulk leaves in 3Q w/ injury.
2003 15 SEA 22 STL 27 Bulger M.Hasselbeck W at CLE W CIN L at MIN W ARI Rams jump to 21-12 halftime lead. Holt: 6 rec, 100 yds, TD. Alexander rushes for 126 yds, TD.
2003 8 SF 13 ARI 16 Garcia Blake W TB W STL BYE W CIN SF comes back to force OT, but lose. Cards? rush for 221 yds (Shipp: 165). 49ers: 3 times.
2003 14 ARI 14 SF 50 McCown Garcia L at CHI L CAR L at BAL L at CIN 49ers earn 30 1st downs. Garcia throws 4 TDs (2 to Owens), Barlow rushes for 154, TD.
NFL PAST PERFORMANCES OCT 10-11
BEST BET
*NY JETS over BUFFALO by 20
Off a bye week, in a double-revenge situation, the Jets were satisfied to go to Miami in
good weather with a plan to hand the ball to Curtis Martin 24 times, with the Golden Chad
throwing only 24 times. What did not go to waste in Miami will serve the Jets? offense
well in yet another important division game. Herman Edwards and staff probably consider
Drew Bledsoe, in Mike Mullarkey?s new offense, a stronger threat to put points on the
board against their big-play seeking defense than Jay (Put Me Out of My Misery) Fiedler
was while under the guidance of Three Stooges Marc Trestman, Joel Collier and Dave
Wannstedt. And it?s always nice to impress the home fans with a confident outburst of
plays to Santana Moss and Justin McCareins, after really rubbing it into the Dolphins by
bringing Wayne Chrebet out of mothballs to be the leading wide receiver against them.
It?s obvious that New York considers Buffalo to be the more worthy opponent on both sides
of the ball, but its also obvious that the 0-3 Bills are mediocre at best and that Bledsoe
has no real answers other than to show up and play hard, which doesn?t always work.
Jets rarely turn it over, Bills rarely get turnovers. NY JETS, 34-14.
RECOMMENDED
JACKSONVILLE over SAN DIEGO by 11
The Jags have a very strong defense that allowed only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground
last season, and is proving that number to be no fluke after allowing only 3.6 per carry
through the first four games this season. The Jacksonville defensive front is bigger and
stronger than most, and should be able to stuff the middle on LaDainian Tomlinson and
force him to run laterally before gaining any yardage. Although the Jaguars have struggled
to get their own offense going and Fred Taylor has traditionally been a better performer
in the second half of the season, they may finally erupt for some pleasant passing
moments going over the top against a defensive unit where the strength is at linebacker
(see limiting Chris Brown to 55 yards on 15 carries, as expected here last week, but
allowed second-stringer Billy Volek to throw for 278 yards and 2 TDs) Leftwich showed
what he can be dangerous when facing a weak secondary, throwing for 318 yards versus
Indy. Drew Brees and the rest of the Chargers have had their moments, but are still
too inconsistent to be trusted on a weekly basis. JACKSONVILLE 21-10.
*DENVER over CAROLINA by 6
Non-conference road spot for the Panthers, who are in danger of falling into the same post-
Super Bowl losing trap that the New York Giants, St. Louis Rams and Oakland Raiders fell into
in each of the last three seasons, which added up to 13-33-2 ATS. The Panthers are currently
1-2 SU and ATS, but they earn no bonus points for having beaten Kansas City, the stale team
which was 0-3 SU and ATS as this issue was being put to bed. The Broncos had a plan to do
it with defense from the beginning this season, and with Steve Smith out of the Carolina wide
receiving corps, the shutdown job just gets easier at the cornerback position for Denvers
Champ Bailey. When Carolinas Mushin Muhammed can catch 7 balls for 114 yards (16.3
yards per reception) yet the offense gets only 10 points vs. Atlanta, you know that something
extra is missing. Jake Delhomme will be under pressure from the National Anthem by a
defense looking to force the issue, get turnovers, and set up the offense for easy scores.
Carolina?s O-line did great vs. Kansas City, and thats about it so far. DENVER, 23-17.
*SEATTLE over ST. LOUIS by 7
Seattle looks focused and this is a divisional game off a bye week that coach Holmgren will not
let his troops take lightly. Conversely, the Rams have looked pretty awful on defense. Prior to
Sunday night?s game, they had allowed 165 rush yards and 24 points a game while failing to cover
any games or force a single turnover. Mike Martz, not known for his ability to adjust defensively,
will have a tough time containing Shaun Alexander, who runs behind one of the better offensive
lines in the league. Speaking of defense, Seattles has been superb, giving up just 13 points
through three games and sacking the opposing QB 10 times. Well note that the Rams are 2-4
ATS as road dog since 2001, Seahawks 6-2 ATS as home favorite since 2003. The Midweek
Update is likely to have more on this match-up. SEATTLE 27-20.
*SAN FRANCISCO over ARIZONA by 1
Winless home favorites like San Francisco can catch every break in route to a straight-up win and
still not cover the spread. Arizona head coach Dennis Green as a dog: better than 61% in his
career, and now 3-1 ATS this season, with a bullet! Hopefully, you?ve been paying attention instead
of just assuming that the Cardinals are the same-old team that loses against the spread. You really
shouldn?t begin a season by making assumptions that last year?s point-spread records will continue.
That?s what amateurs do. The 49ers have a zillion problems that were evident to anyone
who follows football casually before the season began, but a pair of slim-margin point-spread
****** to start the season suddenly had knee-jerk observers hailing Dennis Erickson as a great
coach and getting a lot out of a little. Please. SAN FRANCISCO, 20-19.
*WASHINGTON over BALTIMORE by 3
If you like Baltimore, just remember that non-conference road games are the least important on
the schedule, and that one-dimensional running teams need more offense if they plan to win more
games than they lose. If you dislike the Redskins, remember that teams with new coaches and a
new starting QB need time to develop offensive rhythm. Will the Redskins continue to lose for the
rest of the season? No. Is a nationally televised home game against an offensively challenged visitor
playing a low-priority game a likely spot for the losing to stop? Yes. It could come in a crazy
way, like after Mark Brunell is sent flying into the first row by Ray Lewis, and Patrick Ramsey coming
in and completing a tipped TD pass to Lavernaues Coles following a 25-yard pass interference
penalty on Chris McAllister, but it?ll probably happen.WASHINGTON, 16-13.
MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 11
*GREEN BAY over TENNESSEE by 1
You were thinking that Sports Reporter was being a little too hard on the Packers. Our Zone Blitz
prediction was 6-10 for the season, with Favre attempting to play injured. That?s pretty much
how it went last week vs. the Giants and it probably won?t get much better. New York?s Kurt
Warner, Ron Dayne and the referees did everything they possibly could to hand Green Bay a victory
at last week, yet the Packers still couldn?t get it done. There are injuries on the DL and secondary,
opponents can run all over them, the coaches are scratching their heads, and Favre is
now on Cal Ripken watch. Green Bay?s saving grace is that the Titans? situation may be just as
bad, with Steve McNair hurting and nobody from a stale roster making plays on either side of
the ball. Midweek Update and Sports Reporter won Best Bets against each of these sides last
week and we?re wishing they weren?t playing each other right now! GREEN BAY, 17-16.

[wizardofoddz]

Sport Reporter

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8
*BYU over UNLV by 12
The Rebels figure to be down after an emotional game last week with state rival Nevada
(won, 40-13) and the announcement that John Robinson will be retiring at season?s end.
We?re still not impressed with a defense that was allowing nearly 30 PPG before Saturday?s
win against a team averaging just 14.7 PPG against teams not named Buffalo or Sacramento
State. BYU has been destroyed twice by out-of-their-league USC and Stanford, but have been
highly competitive vs. teams in their class beating Notre Dame and Colorado State and nearly
upsetting bully Boise State as a 22-point road pup. BYU, 31-19.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9
OKLAHOMA over TEXAS by 8 (at Dallas)
The players change, but the core match-up from the last four seasons of 4-0 SU and ATS
for Oklahoma, with a combined score of 177-54, remains the same: Oklahoma?s Bob Stoops
vs. Texas? Mack Brown. Stoops? brother Mike, formerly the co-defensive coordinator, has left
to become the head man at Arizona. But the OU defense hasn?t missed a beat, and has held
both Oregon and Texas Tech to one touchdown. The talent gap is almost negligible, a lot
closer than the line. But we?re still waiting for Brown to get that breakthrough win.
Oklahoma, 30-22.
FLORIDA STATE over *SYRACUSE by 14
The Seminoles have laid double-digit prices 40 times since the start of the 2000 season
(21-19 ATS) and now do it in a dome where the home team is 19-7 ATS in the same
span. This is ?be careful? special as Florida State quarterback Wyatt Sexton makes his
first road start. Another rocket-like beginning like last week, when kid went 10-of-11 at
outset en route to three-TD game in 38-16 non-cover vs. North Carolina. The ?Cuse will
have some success shortening the game with RB Walter Reyes banging out some big
gainers. Florida State, 31-17.
RECOMMENDED
WISCONSIN over *OHIO STATE by 4
The Ohio State team that had always won the close games under head coach Jim
Tressel didn?t win the close one at Northwestern late last Saturday night, and now
faces a Wisconsin team whose head coach, Barry Alvarez, has used the Buckeyes as
a measuring stick for his own team in ?gut check? fourth quarters. Ohio State had its
share of problems wrapping up Northwestern receivers/running backs in that tilt and
that?s a bad sign with Wisky in town looking for a ball-control, slam-bang ground game
now that TB Anthony Davis is back in fine form. He busted loose for 213 yards and
three scores last weekend in 24-7 win/cover against Illinois and is fresh, fit and ready
to ramble. Alvarez has covered nine of his last 13 games as an underdog role and the
Badgers? boss owns three consecutive dog ****** against Ohio State. Davis and deefense
does it for the roadies. Wisconsin, 20-16.
RECOMMENDED
*MICHIGAN over MINNESOTA by 13
First true road test for first-year Minny QB starter Bryan Cupito, and we don?t think he
can ace it. Consider that he managed only 113 yards passing on 8-for-18 passing
against wounded Penn State last week, despite having a running game that gobbled
up 288 yards at over 5 yards a pop. Part of that is because of the conservatism of
coach Glen Mason, but he may have to throw more here because the Gophers figure
to be behind. Only one team has topped the century mark in rushing against the
Wolverines so far this season, and while none of Michigan?s previous opponents has
a ground game as good as Minnesota?s, none of the Gophers? previous opponents had
a rush defense as good as Michigan?s. Freshman Chad Henne, who had three TD
passes and no INTs against Indiana, is playing with confidence and Michigan has more
big-play performers than Minnesota. The Gophers have failed to cover their last four
Big 10 road openers when installed as the underdog, proving how difficult it is to leave
Dome, sweet, Dome for the first time. Michigan, 30-17.
*NORTHWESTERN over INDIANA by 6
Northwestern, favored off an overtime win, is in a whopper of a letdown spot off the nationally
televised upset love-fest against #6-ranked Ohio State. Hoosiers, while improved, have
questionable depth for a 60-minute affair but in their minds, Northwestern will be devoting
some minutes of this game to last week Wildcats? offense should find plenty of holes in
Indiana D, but their own defense has plenty of holes as well. Northwestern, 33-27.
*MICHIGAN STATE over ILLINOIS by 10
There isn?t much on either team?s resume that would induce SPORTS REPORTER to make a
recommendation either way. The Spartans? only two victories came against Central Michigan
and 2-3 Indiana who has allowed 38.7 PPG in three straight losses since opening the year
with two ?Ws? while the Illini has lost 14 of its last 16 games. Illinois has revenge, but who
don?t they have revenge against? Michigan State, 31-21.
TEXAS A&M over *IOWA STATE by 5
This is the Aggies? first road game since losing by 21 at Utah to open the season a few days
before Labor Day and there has been marked improvement since. A&M has reeled off three
straight wins, one less than it accumulated a year ago, and found an offense in the process
(33.3 PPG in that trio of wins). Would love to step out a bit on Dennis Franchione & Co. but
we?d like to see a decent road performance (Aggies are 0-6 SU and ATS on the road in the
Franchione era allowing 50.8 PPG). Texas A&M, 33-28.
PITTSBURGH over *TEMPLE by 12
Pittsburgh coach Walt Harris is supposed to be a quarterback guru, and first-year starter Tyler
Palko did show some improvement against Connecticut, passing for 267 yards. But he did
throw a pick that was returned for a TD, and 11-for-31 is a poor percentage. But the skies
should be much friendlier here against a Temple team that has no defense whatsoever, and
whose QB, Walter Washington, has been a major disappointment. Pittsburgh, 33-21.
CINCINNATI over *ARMY by 11
Those 6 a.m. wakeups this past week at West Point didn?t go over too big following painful
21-17 loss against TCU last week as Cadets blew 17-0 lead. Army head coach Bobby Ross
is making inroads as you can see but fact remains that Black Knights have lost 19 games in
a row and don?t have pass rushers or cornerbacks to handle Cincy QB Gino Guidugli for full
60-minute showing here. Cincinnati, 28-17.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
4
1-900-772-7272
Info for the alternative player.
Scientifically selected Three-Teamers.
Expertly analyzed Overs and Unders.
Only $12 per Call. Every Saturday and Sunday!
5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
BOWLING GREEN over *CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 11
Doubt that Bowling Green is going to light the scoreboard for 70 points two weeks in a row
on the road, but the Falcons should be able to move the ball against Central. However,
Chippewas come in with momentum after pulling out win over Kent State in the fourth quarter.
Bowling Green, 34-23.
BEST BET
*NORTH CAROLINA over NC STATE by 1
At this rate, NC State head coach Chuck Amato isn?t going to have any voice at all. The
Wolpfack boss man was practically speechless following last week?s come-frombehind
27-21 overtime win against Wake Forest and that one came on the heels of a
17-16 barnburner against Virginia Tech. Road favorite off an OT win takes on revengeseeking
home dog, and the home dog is coming off games against Louisville and
Florida State. That makes this a drop in class into a circled game for North Carolina.
Chalk-players beware. Tar Heels? senior QB Darian Durant has never beaten North
Carolina?s most serious rival and he ran only 6 times vs. Florida State last week once
the game got away from them. He?ll take off as frequently as is necessary in this lastchance
affair, and UNC will be coached to play like their hair is on fire by John Bunting,
whose own butt is extremely hot at the moment. NORTH CAROLINA, 24-23.
RECOMMENDED
*KANSAS over KANSAS STATE by 6
Time for K-State?s 10 consecutive win-and-****** in this intra-state series to end.
KSU coach Bill Snyder takes one of his weakest teams into Lawrence this time around.
Dylan Meier has not been the answer at QB thus far, and do-everything RB Darren
Sproles hasn?t been immune from costly errors (lost two fumbles that led to Texas
A&M TDs last week) without Ell Roberson sharing that play-making load with him. Of
the two starting QBs in this game, KU?s Adam Barmann is the one playing with much
more confidence right now. Jayhawks? cover at Nebraska last week raised their ATS
record to 4-1, with the only spread loss by a half-point. K-State, meanwhile, is 0-3
ATS. These two teams will continue to head in opposite directions as the Jayhawks
exploit a defense that is down significantly from last season. Consider that ULLafayette
rushed for 214 yards against the Wildcats. Kansas, 27-21.
*EAST CAROLINA over TULANE by 3
East Carolina has demonstrated it still cannot slow down a quality offense, but Tulane?s doesn?t
qualify at this point. The Green Wave obviously misses its departed playmakers from last
year, and a minus-7 turnover ratio through three games hasn?t helped matters. At least
Tulane has a bye, while Pirates come off embarrassment at Louisville. East Carolina, 23-20.
MARSHALL over *OHIO by 5
Marshall has three extra days to prepare after Wednesday win over Miami-OH, and the
Thundering Herd will need every bit of it to get ready for an Ohio offense that no longer is
land-locked. QBs Ryan Hawk and Austen Everson totaled 218 yards passing in breakthrough
win at Kentucky, and each had a TD pass. Of course, Marshall?s Stan Hill is the best passer
on the field this day. Marshall, 27-22.
RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI-OHIO over KENT STATE by 9
We went against Kent State for a RECOMMENDED victory last week when they were
a road favorite, but now we?re siding with them as a road underdog. There?s no loyalty
in this endeavor, folks. It?s all about situations. And this is a more preferable situation
for Kent and QB Josh Cribbs, who are 7-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs since
the beginning of 2003 when he starts. Instead of having to win the game, all they have
to do here is stay relatively close. Cribbs did his usual thing against Central Michigan,
amassing 223 yards of total offense with no interceptions. But he was unable to mount
a go-ahead drive when CM grabbed the lead with 2:58 left. That won?t be necessary
here. All he needs to do put together some second-half offense against a defense that
likely will be trading yards for clock. Miami-Ohio, 31-22.
NEW MEXICO over *AIR FORCE by 3
Fisher DeBerry?s midgets may be rarin? to go, but with frosh quarterback Shaun Carney tossing
into a 3-3-5 defensive alignment, supported by a shaky running game, and Air Force?s
small defense attempting to limit Dontrell Moore, who is coming off a sub-par game against
a better than average Utah team, Air Force does not excite. New Mexico, 27-24.
*AUBURN over LOUISIANA TECH by 20
It?s one thing for a minor conference team to play a game or two per year against superior competition,
but Louisiana Tech?s 2004 schedule had to be set up by the Marquis de Sade. This is
the final contest in a four-game set that started with a 48-0 and 42-17 losses at Miami-FL, then
the one they were actually pointing for ? a home upset of Fresno State (won, 28-21 taking
+14). Now it?s on to Auburn, where the Tigers are undefeated and coming off a magnificent 34-
10 road thrashing of Tennessee. La. Tech is off an emotional win and playing a high-quality, runstopping,
non-conference opponent in their third road game in four weeks. Auburn, 30-10.
*NOTRE DAME over STANFORD by 9
Stanford is a perfect 4-0 ATS, but remember, all of that good work was done on their home
field. As we told you first in the SPORTS REPORTER Zone Blitz, classes at Stanford didn?t
begin until last week, so players had plenty of time to think football. First trip upsets that
apple cart a little, and they will run into a Notre Dame team that saw its own promising start
exposed as a mirage with blowout home loss to Purdue. But Irish are more physical than
Stanford, and should be able to wear Cardinal down. Notre Dame, 28-19.
UAB over *MISSISSIPPI STATE by 7
Asking average teams to cop back-to-back spread triumphs on the road when the second
time is as the favorite is dicey stuff and especially so when the defense has the tendency to
get ravaged. Now, visiting UAB bunch asked to lay a road price here and that generally happens
just once or twice a year. Meanwhile, no doubt host MSU Bulldogs have a toothless
attack they should be better with most of last year?s offensive linemen back and firstyear
head coach Sylvester Croom appears to be in pretty deep but could see this one coming
down to late-game field goal. UAB, 26-19.
*COLORADO over OKLAHOMA STATE by 1
Late-game goal-line stands against Colorado State and Washington State enabled this
2004 Colorado team to get out on chute quickly but last week the shoe was on the other
foot: Colorado QB Joel Klatt was picked off in the end zone in the fourth quarter of that 17-
9 loss at Missouri despite replays that saide otherwise. Meanwhile, what you need to know
about this Oklahoma State squad is that it sports a +13 turnover margin and is 4-0 SU for
the first time since 1997. But they are also 2-5 ATS in last seven conference road games.
Colorado, 27-26.
*BALL STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 11
Ball State is a much more confident team home, while Eastern Michigan?s confidence has to
be fading after back-to-back home losses against I-AA Eastern Illinois and lowly Idaho. But
don?t like laying this price with pedestrian Ball State offense. Ball State, 27-16.
SAN DIEGO STATE over *WYOMING by 1
The Aztecs of SDSU play a third road game in four weeks, are coming off a revenge game
loss at UCLA, and there are four more revenge games left on the schedule including one next
week against Colorado State. Letdown? Not if Tom Craft has anything to do with it. He?ll
remind the troops that Wyoming has pushed them to the brink the last two years with two
wins by a total of nine points. That might be easier said then done against the Cowboys, who
have already equaled last season?s total of wins, but will be seeing the best defense they?ve
faced all year. San Diego State, 24-23.
*GEORGIA over TENNESSEE by 9
Here?s the most important ingredients in this SEC duel: The Georgia Bulldogs come off an
absolute ?A? game in that 45-16 thrashing of LSU last Saturday ?tween the hedges.
Conversely, Tennessee playing first road game of the season after season-opening four-game
home stand that was capped by five-INT game by freshmen quarterbacks Erik Ainge (he
threw four ?em) and lefty Brent Schaffer. That?s what freshmen QBs do against good teams,
and Georgia is a good team. Georgia, 24-15.
*FLORIDA over LSU by 8
Handicappers are going to find it tough to wager on LSU bunch that has zero shot of winning
national title this year and next-to-no hopes of playing in SEC Championship Game. Nick
Saban?s crew was pushed all over the field last weekend by burly Georgia O-line and a freshman
kick returner for the Bayou Bengals even downed one ball at the one-yard line in major
brain cramp that will make all the sports blooper videos in the years to come. Guess where
Florida was looking after the Gators went up 35-7 vs. Arkansas last week and the gap narrowed
to 38-30? To LSU, of course! Florida, 24-16.
*UCLA over ARIZONA by 8
Little brother Mike Stoops has done a fine job turning the Wildcats? defense around in less
than a year and he has a week off to prepare his team for triple revenge. The ?Cats were a
disaster on the road last year going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS scoring 58 points while surrendering
211, but that was mostly when they didnt like the head coach they were playing for.
UCLA, 24-16.
*USC over CALIFORNIA by 11
Big bounce time for the Cal Bears, who showed everything they had in a revenge game at
Oregon State last Saturday while USC was off, preparing for what is the their only revenge
game of the season. When the USC offense wants to play, they are near unstoppable. The
defense hits harder than most in the nation and its a miracle that some of the Stanford skill
people were able to come back and play the week after they absorbed as many well-placed
blows from USC helmets. When you look at your opponent and consider him to be the thing
that prevented you from winning a clear-cut National Championship the prior year, youre
gonna hit even harder. USC, 35-24.
*WASHINGTON over SAN JOSE STATE by 18
Huskies coach Keith Gilbertson has been twisting in the wind since before an Opening Day
loss at home to Fresno State, because the new AD would certainly like to start fresh in an
attempt to restore the program that ex-AD Barbara Hedges ruined. (So much for sending a
woman to do a mans job.) A poor performance this week against a smaller-conference doormat
might seal his fate as well as serving as a deterrent for recruiting. We?ll disregard the
70-63 score the Spartans put on the board against Rice as an anomaly, but we need to see
a lot more from the once mighty Huskies before recommending them. Washington, 38-20.
VIRGINIA TECH over *WAKE FOREST by 1
Prime letdown spot for Hokies after major revenge win over West Virginia. But physical
matchup still favors VT, as it held powerful West Virginia ground game to fewer than 4 yards
per carry last week. If Hokies can shut down Wake ground attack, they can force the Deacs
to beat them through the air. Despite OT, Wake had only 61 passing yards against North
Carolina State. Virginia Tech, 21-20.
RECOMMENDED
*MARYLAND over GEORGIA TECH by 19
Last year?s scenario was somewhat similar in that Maryland had a bye and then
lost 7-3 at Georgia Tech on the following Thursday night. This time the Terps have
two full weeks to get prepped for their ACC rivals here and protect-his-house head
coach Ralph Friedgen should make up for last years flop. Maryland QB Joel
Statham has overcome a dreary start to his season and always is more comfortable
at home while G-Tech signal-caller Reggie Ball is taking steps backwards
these days and the sacks he took against Miami in last Saturday?s 27-3 home loss
were downright ridiculous. The Terrapins will throw a whole bunch of different
looks at Ball here and get him off his game early and take note that we?ll even add
a couple of points to our margin should Tech tailback P.J. Daniels remain sidelined.
Maryland, 36-17.
PURDUE over *PENN STATE by 8
The Purdue situation, being favored in a third straight road game, off two consecutive wins,
is a play-against or a no-play. Professional handicappers do not, repeat, do not, lay points in
this situation, especially when the other side is a desperate home dog with revenge, whose
quick defense has a better chance of containing Purdues passing game than they had to
contain the powerful, offensive-line powered straight-ahead and misdirection of Minnesota
and Wisconsin the last two Saturdays. Purdue, 22-14.
*WASHINGTON STATE over OREGON by 3
The Ducks have revenge on the table, but the Cougars may have the bigger advantage of
having last week off after playing four straight weeks. And, revenge sure didn?t work last
week when Oregon couldn?t contain Arizona State?s dynamic offense in a 28-13 loss.
Washington State, 27-24.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS over *CENTRAL FLORIDA by 19
Return of QB Josh Haldi from injury provided an obvious spark for Northern Illinois, which
rolled up 49 points against Akron. Central Florida is 0-4 both SU and ATS as the George
O?Leary era has gotten off to a lousy, injury-filled start. Northern Illinois, 38-19.
*AKRON over BUFFALO by 15
The coaching turnover at Akron seems to have had an adverse effect on QB Charlie Frye,
who, except for brief glimpses, is nothing like the smooth operator he?s been in the past. But
this is a great opportunity to get back on track against a Buffalo team that figures to have a
QB making his first road start. Redshirt freshman Chris Moore replaced indefinitely suspended
P.J. Piskorik and went 5-for-7 for 195 yards, including an 86-yard TD. He?ll need to
put it up more than seven times this week. Akron, 38-23.
*VANDERBILT over RUTGERS by 6
We?ve long since scratched out the name of Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano as an ?upand-
comer? as his game coaching is awful. However, flip side of this tilt here is Vandy?s laying
points in SEC sandwich game and QB Jay Cutler will never remind anyone of Peyton
Manning in these parts! Vanderbilt, 31-25.
SUPER BEST BET
*TEXAS TECH over NEBRASKA by 27
The Red Raiders have to be ecstatic about playing at home after spending four of the first
five weeks on the road including a trip to Norman, OK last Saturday where they more than
held their own and actually demonstrated a running game to go along with that feared
passing attack for the second straight week. Tech put 70 on the board in its only home
game against TCU and is averaging 47.1 PPG in Lubbock since the beginning of last year
and is 10-3 ATS the last two plus years. And, the Cornhuskers newfangled offense (18.3
PPG vs. three board teams) should be easy for Mike Leach and his staff to game plan
since the Red Raiders practice against one of the most sophisticated offenses in college
football every week. While the Huskers defense looks like its usual intimidating self, it
has not faced a big time offense like this that now has the ability to run the ball and keep
its opponent off balance on literally every down. The Raiders have a much better QB in a
proven system vs. an experimental offense still getting its feet wet. Texas Tech, 44-17.
MISSOURI over *BAYLOR by 17
The Tigers are 4-0 both SU and ATS in the game following their annual war with Colorado (3-0
under Gary Pinkel) including a pair of destructions of Baylor, so don?t plan on a letdown against
the Bears just because they beat the Buffs for the first time in six years. And, with Baylor coming
off a physical game against bigger and stronger Texas, it may not have enough frontline
bodies to compete against their second straight far superior opponent. Missouri, 34-17.
RECOMMENDED
TOLEDO over *WESTERN MICHIGAN by 22
Have the Rockets finally worked out all the kinks that contributed to that awful 0-2 start
in which the defense gave up 63 points not once, but twice Sure looks like it, doesn?t
it? Toledo has won three straight (2-0-1 ATS) winning by 26.3 PPG while averaging 46.3
PPG. While it?s true that the Broncos were off last week and are staring at triple
revenge, they simply don?t have the defense (44.7 PPG against three board opponents)
to contain a QB as good Bruce Gradkowski (33 TDs, 9 interceptions since the beginning
of last year) no matter how long they might prepare for him. The Rockets are still trying
to exorcise the demons from those two aforementioned disasters and will jump all
over a team it has three straight wins against averaging 39 PPG. Toledo, 47-25.
*KENTUCKY over ALABAMA by 1
Here?s hoping that ESPN doesnt decide to go national with this game just because it involves
a couple of SEC teams. Neither team offers much offensively. The Tide has somewhat of an
excuse with QB Brodie Croyle out for the season although one wonders who recruited his
back ups off last weekends (3-23) stinker at home against South Carolina. While Wildcats
QB Shane Boyd is showing improvement, hes not good enough to carry Kentuckys mediocre
running game. That makes for a game only a fan who thrives on fumbles and hard hits can
love. Think under or move on. Kentucky, 20-19.
*SOUTH CAROLINA over MISSISSIPPI by 11
Lou Holtz and Company did not allow early-season 20-16 loss-but-cover against Georgia ruin
the South Carolina season. Columbia kids have since strung together back-to-back-to-back
wins with the latest a classy 20-3 triumph as a small road dog at Alabama last weekend. True,
that one came against second-string Tide signal-caller but now SC gets to smother soph
Ethan Flatt and/or Micheal Spurlock and both have a lot to prove. South Carolina, 24-13.
*RICE over SMU by 18
The Owls return home to play a team theyve defeated by an average of 16.5 PPG the last
two years looking to take out last Saturday nights embarrassing 70-point defensive effort vs.
San Jose State effort on the next available opponent. Maybe their schedule hasn?t been the
toughest and the WAC isn?t the SEC, but the fact remains that Rice is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS
since mid November 2003. The Mustangs have produced consecutive superior efforts with
inferior personnel. Asking for lightning to strike a third time is pushing the law of probability
a little too hard. Rice, 40-22.
*FRESNO STATE over UTEP by 24
We won?t downplay a look ahead to a revenge game at Boise State as the Bulldogs have next
week off because even off a loss, State has to be thinking about its revenge match with the
Broncos. This is a mighty big number to cover and theres very little to gain by running up
the score unless you think Pat Hill is still angry about watching his rush defense pretend to
be Swiss cheese in last weeks (21-28) point upset loss at Louisiana Tech. The Miners played
the Bulldogs under similar circumstances a year ago as State was coming off a loss to Boise
and lost, but covered the 19-point cap with ease in losing by a trey. Deja vu all over again
Well, this time the Miners are on the road, but theyre coming off a pair of solid efforts and
are 6-3 ATS on the road since the tail end of 2002. Fresno State, 34-10.
*HAWAII over NEVADA by 16
Hawaiis veteran quarterback Timmy Chang just keeps setting records and were not about to
expect lowly Nevada to survive the gauntlet of a third straight road game and Changs right arm.
Hawaii, 40-24.
*MIDDLE TENNESSEE over ARKANSAS STATE by 10
Fifth road game in six weeks for Arkansas State, and third in a row. But the Indians have covered
three of those four away games, including the last two. Middle could be a bit flat after
failing in double-revenge spot against North Texas. Middle Tennessee, 31-21
UL-MONROE over *IDAHO by 5
Oh, Brother, Where Art Thou Idaho QB Michael Harrington finally made himself known in 45-
point performance at Eastern Michigan last week, as his older sibling Joey, who works in
Detroit on Sundays, watched from the press box. But his Sun Belt Conference defense has
surrendered 65, 49, 48 and 41 points in four of its five games this year and won?t have proper
answers for Monroe slinger Steven Jyles. UL-Monroe, 36-31.
NORTH TEXAS over *UTAH STATE by 3
The Mean Green of North Texas reversed their 0-4 SU and ATS field when Sun Belt play play
began last week, rallying from 14-0 deficit to beat Middle Tennessee. After starting RB Patrick
Cobbs (knee) was declared out for the season earlier in the week, frosh Jamario Thomas
rushed for 179 yards and two TDs. But come-from-behind favorites are shaky propositions
and their passing attack isn?t good enough to trust. Utah State just allowed 253 yards rushing
to Troy, but it was only 4.7 yards per carry and if QB Travis Cox isn?t picked as Sports
Reporter predicted he would be at Troy last Saturday, this is a ballgame all the way. North
Texas, 24-21.
*NEW MEXICO STATE over UL-LAFAYETTE by 2
ULL already has proven that it can have trouble slowing down a good rushing attack, having
allowed 300-plus yards to both Louisiana Tech and Kansas State. But Aggies totally directionless
at this point and managed only 116 yards on ground against UTEP. Lafayettes ninepoint
win over board newcomer Florida International a bit misleading, as covering TD was
scored on pick with 11 seconds to go. New Mexico State, 30-23.
WEST VIRGINIA over *CONNECTICUT by 10 (Wednesday)
Power running by WVU keeps the ball away from the UConn offense, and when it falls
behind, tricky defensive alignments confound their QB Orlovsky into errors. WEST
Virginia, 27-17

[wizardofoddz]

Nelly's
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
KANSAS STATE (-2½) over Kansas Rating: 5
WAKE FOREST (+4) over Virginia Tech Rating: 4
NOTRE DAME (-5½) over Stanford Rating: 3
OKLAHOMA STATE (-6½) Colorado Rating: 2
OKLAHOMA (-6½) over Texas Rating: 2
TEXAS TECH (-6½) over Nebraska Rating: 1
MARYLAND (-11) Georgia Tech Rating: 1
All times are Central. Home team in Caps
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2004
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (-18) Houston 6:00 pm
The Golden Eagles pulled out a win last week to quietly remain
undefeated on the season. Houston was pummeled in Memphis
last week and heads on the road again continuing a brutal opening
schedule. The Eagles do not put up big numbers but they have
controlled the ball, with a huge time of possession edge in their last
two games. Army is the only team which Houston has defeated
and it will be tough to overcome the success Southern Miss has
had in C-USA recently. SO MISS BY 21
VIRGINIA (-16) Clemson 6:30 pm
Both teams took a week off and resume ACC play as Clemson
hopes to overcome a three game losing streak in a season that
once held high expectations. QB Whitehurst has thrown ten
interceptions in four games and will face a tough Virginia
secondary. Virginia QB Hagan has been efficient hitting over 76
percent of his passes and RB Lundy already has ten touchdown
runs this year. The Cavs have been impressive this season but
have not faced strong opponents. Clemson has the ability to make
this one interesting and salvage something this season after the
disappointing start. VIRGINIA BY 10
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2004
BYU (-10½) Unlv 9:00 pm
Runnin’ Rebels earned their first win with a big win over rival
Nevada last week. Byu won at Colorado State and now heads
home, where they are just 6-11 ATS in the last 17 conference
games. Last season UNLV lost in overtime and this series, but had
covered in the three previous years. BYU used a balanced attack
last week after having been very limited on the ground early in the
season. Both teams have played difficult schedules but BYU has
shown a bit more consistency. BYU BY 14
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2004
OKLAHOMA (-7) Texas 11:00 am
Four straight wins for the Sooners in this series but the Sooners
will actually be favored for just the second time since ’95 in this
series. The dog in this series is 12-4 ATS but after a tight game
last week, expect Oklahoma to be ready. Texas has been among
the top rushing teams in the country but a big coaching and
psychological edge should propel the Sooners to another big win in
Dallas. After the results of the last few years laying a touchdown
should be a no-brainer here no matter how impressive Texas has
been on paper. OKLAHOMA BY 17
Florida State (-19) SYRACUSE 6:00 pm
Syracuse is an impressive 20-8 as a home dog since 1982 but this
year’s Orange squad does not compare to the teams of the past.
Florida State found great success with the QB change last week in
an easy win but missed cover last week. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS this
season and will face FSU QB Sexton in his first ever road game in
the threatening confines of the Carrier Dome. Although FSU pulls it
out the Orange are playing with some fire. FLORIDA ST BY 14
OHIO STATE (-3½) Wisconsin 2:30 pm
The Buckeyes are reeling after an OT loss to Northwestern.
Possibly OSU was looking ahead to this game against the Badgers
team that ended their remarkable unbeaten streak last year. The
Buckeyes are 11-4 ATS coming off a S/U loss and have been
looking to this game all year. Wisconsin’s offense got a big boost
last week with RB Davis returning to put up 200 yards and three
touchdowns. Wisconsin’s defense has been extremely impressive
under new DC Bielema but the Badgers schedule has been
extremely soft. Ohio State takes revenge and another unbeaten
falls. OHIO ST BY 7
MICHIGAN (-4½) Minnesota 11:00 am
This was a crushing loss for the Gophers last season, as they
surrendered a huge lead in a remarkable Michigan comeback. Like
last season, the Gophers enter the game undefeated however they
must travel to Michigan this time around. The powerful Gopher
offense stalled a bit last week but still came through with another
win. Michigan has been very inconsistent on offense this season
but have the ability to break out. Nearly a certain rush doubling
underdog in the Gophers. MINNESOTA BY 3
NORTHWESTERN (-10) Indiana 11:00 am
It was one of the biggest wins in school history for the Wildcats last
weekend, coming through with a focused OT win. The Cats have
shown the ability to score points through a tough first half
schedule. The Hoosiers are improved this season but have not
been able to match any of their opponents offensive output. The
S/U winner in this series has covered in the last 20 meetings and
Northwestern can shake off a letdown with another win. NW BY 17
MICHIGAN STATE (-7) Illinois 11:00 am
The Spartans have made progress after a brutal start but could not
put it together in Iowa last week despite putting up big numbers.
Illinois has been competitive against two upper echelon Big Ten
opponents and may find themselves able to hang around with the
Spartans. MSU has been mistake prone with costly penalties and
turnovers and a few breaks could lead to an Illini upset. MSU BY 3
Texas A&M (-7) IOWA STATE 6:00 pm
All of a sudden the A&M team that was blown out in the opener
looks like a serious contender. The Aggies scored a big win at
home against Kansas State but now find themselves as a road
favorite to an improved Iowa State team. The Aggies were
outgained and had an over 2 to 1 disadvantage in time of
possession last week but came through with another impressive
win. Iowa State was beaten badly in Stillwater, but play much
better at home. A&M has not been the same team on the road,
and may not be ready to lay points here. TEXAS A&M BY 3
Pittsburgh (-13½) TEMPLE 11:00 am
The Owls gave up over 600 yards and 70 points to Bowling Green
last week at home. Temple is 8-1-1 ATS as a home dog to Pitt and
will hope that trend carries over t o the Linc. Pittsburgh is no where
near the Panthers teams of the last few seasons and could be in
for a greater challenge then expected with their second
consecutive road game. Temple has an experienced QB and after
the beating last week the Owls should be revived. PITT BY 7
NC State (-11) NORTH CAROLINA 5:05 pm
The Wolfpack delivered a dramatic win for the second straight
week and now face the rival Tar Heels. North Carolina has been a
tough team to figure out as they played fairly well last week against
FSU, forced to settle for field goals in a game that was fairly even
statistically. A week before the Heels were shut out at home by
Louisville on tails of a blowout upset win over Georgia Tech. The
Wolfpack have been outstanding on defense but have not made
the most out of scoring opportunities. State should come through
with another big win. NC STATE BY 14
Kansas State (-2½) KANSAS 6:20 pm
While it is clear that this is not the same K-State team of old, some
things do not change, as KU has fallen S/U and ATS in this series
for ten consecutive years. Kansas has lost three straight close
games against quality competition including a tough loss at
Nebraska last week. K-State lost to Texas A&M last week despite
controlling most of the game. The Wildcats have a lone I-A win
over La-Lafayette this season but this series has been blowout
after blowout in recent years. Although KU QB Barmann has been
impressive, the Jayhawks can’t solve K-State. K-ST BY 17
New Mexico (-1½) AIR FORCE 6:30 pm
The Lobo defense has been solid but offensively New Mexico has
struggled considerably, highlighted by just 157 yards in last week’s
loss to Utah. Both teams sit at 2-3 entering the heart of MWC play
and although the Lobos have not been productive offensively, the
Air Force defense which allows nearly 450 yards per game should
be the perfect remedy. New Mexico has shown the ability to run
the ball and they can win on the road. NEW MEXICO BY 6
AUBURN (-25½) Louisiana Tech 2:30 pm
After clearing a significant hurdle on the schedule by easily
dismantling Tennessee on the road, Auburn is sitting pretty for a
run at a special season. A home game with Georgia looms in
December, but with the next three games at home, the Tigers
should continue to climb. A let down is possible but Louisiana Tech
is in the same boat, coming off a huge win at home over Fresno
State. Tech has been an excellent running team this season but
will face another strong defense. AUBURN BY 28
NOTRE DAME (-4½) Stanford 1:30 pm
Stanford appears to be one of the most improved teams in college
football off to a great start, the lone loss coming by three points to
USC in a game they led. Notre Dame lost badly on the scoreboard
to Purdue but it was a very even game statistically as the Irish
wasted several prime scoring opportunities. The young Cardinal
team has yet to go on the road this season. Although the Cardinal
will look to avenge the 50 point loss from last season, the Irish
should rebound. NOTRE DAME BY 10
Oklahoma State (-6½) Colorado 2:30 pm
The Colorado offense has been outgained in three of four games,
ye the Buffs sit at 3-1. The undefeated Cowboys have seamlessly
replaced key players and are quietly off to an outstanding start.
Oklahoma State has out-rushed their opponents by an average of
nearly 170 yards per game, a total far greater than the Buffs
average per game. The Colorado defense has been strong this
season but they are yet to face such a dominant ground game.
Oklahoma State keeps rolling but the schedule is about to get very
tough in the next few weeks. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 14
GEORGIA (-12½) Tennessee 2:30 pm
Both teams enter off huge games but vastly different results.
Georgia led an impressive win over BCS champion LSU, exploding
on offense to put up 45 points against what was considered one of
the top defenses in the country. Tennessee could not compete with
a physical Auburn team that simply over powered the Vols. One
great game does not have us convinced the Georgia offense has
everything working for them. Tennessee will be very motivated
after the loss last week and are 10-3 ATS in regular season road
games going back to 2001, and have covered in seven of the last
eight games following a S/U home loss. GEORGIA BY 7
FLORIDA (-3) Lsu 6:45 pm
The Gators provided the lone setback for LSU last season as the
Tigers have had serious problems winning against Florida. LSU is
just 2-14 S/U in this series. Florida was a fluky play in Tennessee
away from still being undefeated while the defending champs are
fortunate to be above .500 right now. A second straight road game
for LSU will be tough but expect the LSU defense to bounce back.
Florida played nearly flawlessly offensively early last week but got
turnover help and allowed Arkansas back in the game. LSU BY 4
UCLA (-11) Arizona 5:30 pm
Arizona has lost three straight games but the team has made
tremendous progress, losing very close games with Wisconsin and
Washington State, and holding their own against Utah. The
Arizona defense has been outstanding and the offense should
expect to find a little more space to work with as UCLA allows
nearly 450 yards per game. The Bruins have the ability to score
but UCLA is just 6-12-4 as a home favorite. Arizona is a greatly
improved team and will get a PAC -10 when in the very near future
if not today. UCLA BY 3
USC (-7½) California 2:30 pm
Cal spoiled USC’s perfect season last year and the near slip in
Stanford may have been because of this game on deck. The
Golden Bears have played just three games this season but they
have been extremely impressive in all three, particularly a big win
at Oregon State last week. Cal is 10-4 ATS vs. the Trojans but we
can’t expect the Bears to have nearly as much success against the
USC defense. The Trojans won’t let it happen again. USC BY 10
Virginia Tech (-4) WAKE FOREST 11:00 am
With excellent defense and big plays on special teams Virginia
Tech warned a big win over West Virginia last week. The Hokies
have proven to be a very tough team this season but have not had
much output offensively. Wake Forest has just two OT losses on
the season and is a dangerous team with an excellent running
game. Averaging nearly 240 yards per game on the ground the
Deacons can catch Tech off the West Virginia hangover and
surprise again. VT has a good team but it will be tough play that
well on the road in their new conference. WAKE BY 6
MARYLAND (-11½) over Georgia Tech 2:30 pm
The Terps are hitting their stride and will look to tack on another
ACC win at home. Under Friedgen, Maryland is 11-4 ATS at home
vs. the ACC and we expect another strong performance. Georgia
Tech has an early win over Clemson on their resume but that win
has looked less and less impressive by the week. Athletic QB Ball
can make plays for Tech but he has been mistake prone this
season in back-to-back losses. LY Tech won 7-3 in a weekday
game but look fro Maryland to get revenge. MARYLAND BY 20
PURDUE (-10) Penn State 3:30 pm
Penn State has been unable to get anything going on offense,
scoring just ten points in their last two games. Heading back home
should help the cause but the Lions face a red-hot Purdue team.
Purdue is flying up the rankings with big wins, but last weeks win
over Notre Dame was much closer than the score indicated.
Purdue will face a third straight road game and following up the
Notre Dame win will not be easy, especially with Wisconsin and
Michigan on deck. Penn State’s defense has been solid and this
could be a bit tighter game than expected. PURDUE BY 7
TEXAS TECH (-6½) Nebraska 6:00 pm
Although the Huskers could fall into the highly profitable rushdoubling
underdog scenario they will have a very tough time
keeping pace with a Tech offense that will score points at home.
Although Oklahoma held the Raiders in check last week a return to
Lubbock should bring positive results after playing four of the first
five on the road. The only home game was a dominant 70 point
win over TCU. Nebraska has not had great success adjusting to
the new offense and have not been impressive through a fairly light
early schedule. TEXAS TECH BY 14
SOUTH CAROLINA (-16) Mississippi 6:00 pm
The Gamecocks took advantage of Tide mistakes to claim a rare
win at Alabama last week. Ole Miss had a tough time with
Arkansas State at home last week. The Rebs have not been able
to make up for the personnel losses from last year’s Cotton Bowl
team. Mississippi has lost S/U and ATS in both road games this
season and are yet to win ATS this year. The Gamecocks should
keep the winning streak alive at home. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 19

NFL KEY SELECTIONS
DALLAS (-3½) over NY Giants Rating: 4
BUFFALO (+7) over NY Jets Rating: 3
SEATTLE (-3) over St. Louis Rating: 2
HOUSTON (+4½) over Minnesota Rating: 2
ATLANTA (-7) over Detroit Rating: 1
All times are Central. Home team in Caps
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2004
NEW ENGLAND (-13) Miami Noon
The Pats pulled away for a big win in Buffalo to extend the
record win streak. Winless Miami enters after missing several
scoring chances with turnovers last week. The Dolphins have
scored just 32 points in four games this season and do not
appear ready to break out against the Super Bowl Champions.
The Dolphins offense was a bit more productive with Fiedler
back at QB but was forced to settle for field goals. The Miami
defense can keep this one close. PATS BY 7
PITTSBURGH (-6) Cleveland Noon
Big Ben is 2-0 as a starter for the Steelers, and Pittsburgh is in
first place in their division. The Browns are 2-0 at home but
have not had much success on the road. Pittsburgh has won
seven of the last eight games S/U in this series but will face a
solid Browns defense. Cleveland has played commendably
against a tough schedule and can force some mistakes from
the young QB. BROWNS BY 3
INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) Oakland Noon
Big number for the Colts here, coming off the big win in
Jacksonville last week. The Colts are just 10-20-1 when
favored by a touchdown or more and will face a Raiders
offense that has been tough to stop this season. The Oakland
defense has allowed 84 points and will have trouble with the
top ranked Colts offense. COLTS BY 14
ATLANTA (-7) Detroit Noon
The Falcons are surprisingly still undefeated and take on a
Lions team that they have defeated in six of the last seven
meetings. Detroit is rested and ready to get back on track after
their great start to the season. Despite the win in week one, the
Lions still have much to prove on the road. Detroit has two wins
but have yet to beat a playoff caliber opponent, whom the
Falcons are appearing to look more and more like with each
game. FALCONS BY 13
NEW ORLEANS (-3) Tampa Bay Noon
The Saints blew a chance to stay close to Atlanta in the NFC
South, slipping in Arizona as they failed to score an offensive
touchdown. The Bucs nearly got in the win column last week
and sit at 0-4 just two years removed from a Super Bowl
Championship team. Missing RB McAllister was sorely felt last
week and the Saints will have trouble on offense against a still
strong Tampa defense. It’s now or never for the Bucs who can’t
afford to fall any further back. BUCS BY 3
DALLAS (-3½) New York Giants Noon
QB Warner has led the Giants to three straight wins as New
York blew several scoring opportunities last week but still came
up victorious at Lambeau. Dallas took a week off and returns to
face a team they have covered against in eight of the last
twelve. Although New York is winning, we can’t expect their
turnover gift string to continue. The Cowboys have been very
effective on offense thus far this season and will be well
prepared to end the Giants win streak. COWBOYS BY 14
Minnesota (-4½) HOUSTON Noon
The Texans have finally won back-to-back games and again
play at home, where they are 10-5 as an underdog. Minnesota
was very sloppy in their last game but have had an opportune
bye week to get things in order and allow several injured players
to heal. The Vikings have been a horrible road favorite, going
just 25-45-2 and Minnesota as only won five of their last 28 road
games S/U. Houston will likely surrender big yardage, the
Texans can keep up with their momentum. VIKINGS BY 3
NEW YORK JETS (-7) Buffalo 3:05 pm
Two teams that are at opposite ends of the spectrum as the Jets
remain undefeated with a narrow win in Miami and the Bills lost
a tough game to the Patriots. Although the records greatly
contrast, these teams are much closer than they appear. Buffalo
has endured three very close games against far tougher
opponents. The Jets have had a light early schedule as their
three opponents have produced a total of just three wins thus
far. Look for Coach Mularkey to earn his first win. BILLS BY 3
Jacksonville (-3) SAN DIEGO 3:05 pm
The Jags looked like they were going to pull off another stunning
comeback but penalties proved costly in the 4th quarter.
Jacksonville put up impressive offensive numbers and will face a
Chargers squad off a big win over Tennessee. The Chargers
offense has produced this season and the defense is improved.
Jacksonville has put together a great start but the Jags are not
worthy of being road favorites just yet, a role which they are just
2-8 ATS in the last ten. CHARGERS BY 3
DENVER (-5½) Carolina 3:15 pm
The Broncos are missing RB Portis as the offense has struggled
against teams other than Kansas City. Carolina has been
plagued by injuries with and the team has not enjoyed the great
start that propelled them last season. Denver has been one of
the top defenses in the league and with a considerable home
field edge, the Panthers will continue to slide. BRONCOS BY 9
SEATTLE (-7) St. Louis 3:15 pm
Big game for both teams as the Seahawks can completely take
control of the NFC West with a victory. The Rams played their
best game of the season last week but Seattle has excelled at
home, going undefeated last season. Seahawks defense is for
real and the week off will only help. SEAHAWKS BY 10
SAN FRANCISCO (-1½) Arizona 3:15 pm
Arizona has been a solid defensive team and could make it two
in a row playing the struggling 49ers. Although San Francisco
has been able to put up solid yardage they have lost badly in the
last two games after narrow misses in the first two. San
Francisco can find a way to make it happen as they have won
eleven of the last 14 S/U vs. the Cards. 49ERS BY 6
Baltimore (-) WASHNGTON 7:35 pm
The Redskins have dropped three straight after the triumphant
opener the Gibbs return is not looking so storybook anymore.
The three losses have all come by less than a touchdown but
have been filled with very costly mistakes. The Ravens defense
has not been as strong statistically as in the past and the ‘Skins
can protect home field. REDSKINS BY 7
MONDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2004
GREEN BAY (-) Tennessee 8:05 pm
Two teams that can ill afford another loss. The loser will have a
very tough climb to get back to playoff contention with four
losses this early. Lambeau has produced two losses for the
Packers and both teams have banged up quarterbacks. Both
teams have struggled on defense but Green Bay has shown the
potential to be more productive on offense despite an
unimpressive effort last week. It’s become desperation time for
two regular playoff teams. PACKERS BY 7
SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON: Any NFL team in game 5 or later that is winless
and now a double-digit underdog.
PLAY ON: MIAMI
21-11 ATS since 1990 66%
OVER / UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
ATLANTA/DETROIT UNDER
The offenses are getting the attention both defensive units
have improved considerably this season. Detroit has not
scored over 20 points in their last 13 road games and the
Falcons defense has allowed just 49 points in four games
this season.
STAT OF THE WEEK
Minnesota Vikings are 5-23 S/U on the road


HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
(All records listed on this page are ATS unless noted otherwise).
COLLEGE
Baylor is 27-47 as a double-digit dog
Clemson is 15-8 vs. Virginia
Syracuse is 20-8 as a H/D
Florida State is 49-36 as a R/F
Ohio State is 11-4 off a S/U loss
Michigan is 15-7 vs. Minnesota
Texas A&M is 4-7 as a R/F
North Carolina is 8-3 vs. NC State
Kansas is 0-10 S/U and ATS vs. K-State
Notre Dame is 7-2 vs. Stanford
Tennessee is 7-1 off a S/U home loss
LSU is 2-14 S/U vs. Florida
California is 10-4 vs. USC
Purdue is 6-9 as a R/F
Penn State is 4-7 as a H/D
Oregon is 12-5 off a S/U home loss
Fresno State is 1-9-1 off a S/U loss
Indiana is 2-6 vs. Northwestern
Cincinnati is 6-13 as a R/F
Michigan State is 4-13 as a H/F
Marshall is 3-6 as a R/F
South Carolina is 7-4 as a SEC H/F
Oklahoma State is 9-4 vs. Colorado
Vanderbilt is 6-10 as a H/F
Texas Tech is 1-6 before a bye
Virginia Tech is 9-3 in conference road openers
NC State is 3-8 S/U vs. UNC
Wisconsin is 8-2 as a R/D
Penn State is 1-8 before a bye
NFL
Green Bay is 8-5 off back-to-back S/U losses
New England is 8-4-1 as a double-digit favorite
Pittsburgh is 7-1 S/U vs. Cleveland
Indianapolis is 10-20-1 as a favorite over 7
Detroit has lost six of seven to Atlanta
Dallas is 8-4 vs. the NY Giants
Minnesota is 25-45-2 as a R/F
Houston is 10-5 as a H/D
NY Jets are 9-3 vs. Buffalo
Jacksonville is 2-8 as a R/F
San Diego is 12-22 as a H/D
San Francisco is 11-3 vs. Arizona

[wizardofoddz]

Steam Sheet
THE STEAM SHEET
PO Box 777 • Granger, IN 46530
Phone (800) 313-2825
VOLUME 28 NO. 6 OCT. 7- 0CT. 11, 2004
COPYRIGHT 2004 Buckeye Sports, Inc. - Granger, Indiana All Rights Reserved
THIS WEEK - DETAILS INSIDE
Tom Scott's Late Phone service rang up a perfect three-for three on 3* Plays but the
game that counted most was his 4* selection on Notre Dame. As you all saw, the Irish
couldn't compete with Purdue. Dan Tesinferno snuck in under the number with Missouri
and Nick Cannon won easily on Sunday with Atlanta. The Steam Sheet went four
and four with three of the four losses by a combined six points.
DANNY T and NICK CANNON are Smokin'!
Dan Tesinferno nailed his third straight College STEAMROLLER play of the season last
Saturday and comes back this week to make it four in a row. This game is available to all
Steam Sheet subscribers for just $29 on a pay-after-you-win basis. Details - Page 3.
NICK CANNON has another NFL MONSTER PLAY going this week. Cannon's Monsters
have logged 64% wins since 1998. This game is available for $29 on a pay-after-you-win
basis. Call Saturday to get in on this outstanding opportunity. Details - Page 10.
Top Game Club members get both games as part of their regular service.
SMOKER OF THE YEAR
Nick Cannon and Dan Tesinferno cash big tickets
BUT Tom Scott makes the worst pick of his career as
his October Kickoff Lock goes south.
SMOKE SCREEN
STATS WORTH REMEMBERING
FROM THE STAT PAGE: Rush Doublers (Teams who rushed
for double the amount of ground yards than their opponents)
were 17-6 ATS last week and are 89-29 for the season while
Double Digit Dog Rushers (Teams who were underdogs of
+10 or more and gained more ground yards that their opponents)
were 3-1 to the money last week, running the season log
to 16-2. Florida State isn't missing a beat without starting QB
Chris Rix. Sophomore Wyatt Sexton stepped in and connected
on 20 of 31 for 193 yards and three touchdowns. Wisconsin
held Illinois to just 206 total yards, 232 below the Illini season
average. NC State QB Jay Davis was benched for much of the
first half for poor play. Davis apparently got the message. He
completed 16 of 21 for 228 yards and a touchdown in the
second half of action. Penn State is averaging less than six
points per game in its three road games this year. Cincinnati
outgained Uab by 180 yards but never led in the 30-27 Bearcat
loss. Despite being outgained 473-440, Buffalo never fumbled,
threw an interception or punted in its 48-20 win over Central
Florida. The 48 points was the most scored by a Bull team
since the 60 tallied against Central Connecticut in 1992.
Bowling Green rolled up 442 yards of offense and averaged
nearly 11 yards per play in the FIRST HALF of its 70-16 win
over Temple. The BeeGees led 42-9 at the break. Toledo beat
Ball State by 349 yards in its 52-14 revenge win over the
Testes. Syracuse rushed for 370 yards against a Rutgers team
that had allowed just 62 per game in its first three games.
Houston's two scores against Memphis came on a 75-yard
interception return and a 56-yard TD pass. Outside of that
long pass play, Houston managed just 229 yards against a
Memphis defense that had allowed 1,046 in its last two games.
DeAngelo Williams ran 33 times for 262 yards and four
touchdowns to lead the Tigers. Alabama threw two interceptions
that turned into 14 South Carolina points and SC's first
win ever in the Heart of Dixie. The Tide did not cross midfield
in the second half against a tough Gamecock defense. Georgia
QB, David Greene completed only ten passes against LSU but
five of them went for touchdowns in the Bulldog's 45-16 win.
The victory was Georgia's 17th in a row at home. BYU went into
the game against Colorado State averaging 28.8 yards per
game rushing, second worst in the nation. The Cougars ran 46
times for 207 yards, 4.5 ypc, against the defenseless Rams.
Ryan Moats, Louisiana Tech's running machine, ran for 236
yards and four touchdowns to spoil Fresno State's dreams of
a BCS spot. The Californians had a 21-20 lead with four
minutes to go in the game, but Tech picked off a Paul Pinegar
pass and returned it to the Fresno 16. Moats scored the gamewinner
two plays later. Fresno drove to the Tech 20 but
Pinegar was picked off again to seal the upset. West Virginia
was 0-13 on third down conversions in its 19-13 loss to
Virginia Tech. Auburn forced six Tennessee turnovers, including
four interceptions by Junior Rosengreen, to slam the Vols
34-10 in Neyland Stadium. Eric Ainge, who earlier in the week
had commented that Auburn's secondary was soft, was on the
other end of three of Rosengreen's picks. Maurice Drew ran for
161 yards on just 21 carries as UCLA beat San Diego State for
the 17 consecutive time. The Bruins were playing without two
defensive starters and leading receiver Craig Bragg. Against
San Jose State, Rice ran for an incredible 570 yards, forced
five turnovers, scored 63 points, and LOST THE GAME!
Numbers and events from last week's action
2
PHONY PHINALS
Missouri covered by a scant half tick against Colorado but
there was no reason for the Tigers to make Dan Tesinferno
sweat so much. The Columbia Cats controlled the line of
scrimmage for the full sixty minutes, outgaining Colorado 417
to 251. But Mizzou had a 59-yard TD pass called back by a
penalty, missed three relatively easy field goal attempts, and
fumbled away a clock-eating potential scoring drive that
would have buried the Buffs. Nebraska threw three interceptions,
lost a fumble, missed a field goal and tossed a pitchout
into the end zone for a safety but still managed to hand Kansas
its 36th straight defeat in the series. The 2-3 Jayhawks are a
mere ten points from being 5-0. Kansas State ran 90 plays to
just 43 for Texas A&M, but four Wildcat turnovers produced
21 Aggie points and the fourth consecutive loss in a conference
opener for the Purple and White. Even with all that going on,
K-State trailed by just five and had the ball on the A&M 36 with
94 seconds to go. A fourth-and-8 play came up short and the
Aggies took over. Rather than running out the clock, A&M
continued to attack and Reggie McNeal ran 62 yards for a
touchdown with less than a minute left to give the Aggies the
cover. Stanford survived a three interception - no touchdown
day from star QB Trent Edwards and beat Washington by 14.
Unfortunately for Stanford backers, the Cardinal was favored
by 14. No doubt those "pushers" will lament the Stanford
fumble at the Husky one and Edwards interception at the
Washington goal line when even a field goal would have sent
them to the win window. Southern Mississippi turned four
South Florida turnovers into 17 points and came away with a
rare commodity: a road win in Tampa. USM led 20-3 and was
in control of the game but the Golden Eagles failed on a fourthand-
one at the USF 17 and the momentum shifted. South
Florida scored on its next two possessions to get within seven
and had forced a third down incompletion at its own 38 to get
another chance. But interference was called on the play and
CB Terrence Royal was flagged for 15 more yards when he
ripped off his helmet in rage to protest the call. Southern Miss
scored on the next play to make room for USF's courtesy score
with 1:38 remaining in the game. Like USM, Vanderbilt
turned four Mississippi State turnovers into 24 points to notch
its first victory of the season. The Dawgs might still have gotten
the cover if Kyle York's 96-yard TD toss to Will Prosser hadn't
been called back for offensive pass interference.
WE DIDN'T QUIT!
How many times have you heard a losing player or coach
console himself with that phrase? Most of the time, it's a true
statement. Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, it was not. With
more than eight minutes remaining in Alabama's 17-point
loss to South Carolina, Mike Shula threw in the towel. After
recovering a Gamecock fumble, Shula called three straight
running plays without calling a time-out, then ordered an illadvised
fourth down pass with one yard to go for a first down.
He probably couldn't have won the game but it was disheartening
to see the coach of a storied football program pack it in
like that. His kids didn't quit. He did!
TENNIS, ANYONE?
The 4,000+ fans at San Jose's Spartan Stadium had to feel like
they were watching a tennis match. 19 touchdowns were
scored in the game which broke an NCAA Division I record for
combined points in a regulation game. Rice blew a 27-point
second quarter lead but still led by seven with 2:41 left. San
Jose State scored on a 1-yard run, then, just 23 seconds later
returned an interception for the winning score.
STAT STEAMER
Computer whiz, Dan Tesinferno's #1 Play
3* TEXAS over Oklahoma by 4
Don't send me any cards and letters telling me that Mack
Brown can't beat Bob Stoops. He hasn't, but that doesn't mean
he can't. I see some flaws in the Oklahoma defense, flaws
that weren't there last year, and I'm not sure if the Sooners
can hold Texas under 20 points. That is a significant number
because Oklahoma is 8-49 ATS as a favorite when the Sooners
allow 20 or more, including 1-16 to the number if the opponent
is off a double digit win. Texas is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 tries
when the Longhorns are an underdog to a team off a win.
Those are the stats on the game. Here's something else. That
65-13 bashing that the Cows took last year has been eating
at them for an entire year. They're tired of hearing how they
can't beat Oklahoma and they're determined to stop the losing
streak. Texas is no less talented than OU. Take the points.
EYES OF, TOAST AND LEAGUER 28-24!
3
DAN TESINFERNO'S
NCAA STEAMROLLER
DANNY T offers his fourth College STEAMROLLER
game of the season to all Steam Sheet
subscribers this Saturday for just $29.
Dan has ripped off three straight SteamRoller winners
and is as confident as a man can be that the fourth straight
winner is on the way this Saturday.
Call 800-313-2825 between 11 am and Noon eastern time
on Saturday and get in on this special opportunity. You do
not pay until AFTER you win. It's worth a call.
The injury bug bites and bites hard
Note: NCAA rules don't permit full injury details - this is what we saw
Miami Fl - Star OT Eric Winston (knee) is lost for the season.
Florida St - Two starting DL's. Brodrick Bunkley and Eric
Moore were carted off the field in the North Carolina game.
West Virginia - Superb TB KayJay Harris (knee) watched the
second half of the Virginia Tech game on crutches.
Hawaii - The Rainbows' best defensive player, end Melila
Purcell, suffered a stinger in the first half and did not return.
New Mexico - Although dressed and cleared to play, star RB
Dontrell Moore did not enter the game against Utah.
Connecticut - Ace pass rusher Tyler King broke his leg in
the Pitt game and is likely out for the season.
NC State - Wolves best DB Andre Maddox (hamstring) was
injured early the Wake Forest game and did not return.
More injuries to report in the Home Cookin' column
MEDIC
A Salvo from Nicky "Boom Boom" Cannon
3* MARSHALL over Ohio by 17
Stan Hill is finally healthy and it was evident in last Wednesday's
game against Miami. The Herd had control of the game
throughout the second half and every time Hill had to make a
play he did. Don't put too much stock in Ohio's win at
Kentucky. The Bobcats were literally handed the game by the
disinterested Colonels. More relevant is Ohio's loss to Miami
by 20 and its loss to a completely disorganized Pitt team by 21.
Yes, those games were on the road and this one is in Athens
but the Bobcats have won just two of their last ten conference
games (against a pair of stone losers - Central Florida and
Buffalo). A quick check of Marshall's log shows the Herd at 17-
5 ATS against winning teams off a win in its last 22 tries. After
an 0-3 start with Hill ailing, don't expect Marshall to lose
again. The Herd starts here.
DILLON, EARP AND PENNY 27-10!
CANNON SHOT
MORE GAME STUFF
KEY PLAYS
Florida led Arkansas 38-7 after a Matt Leach field goal early
in the third quarter. Then Matt Jones started the Hogs on the
comeback trail. After throwing a TD pass to make it 38-14,
Jones took off on a 25-yard scramble for another touchdown
with 11:16 left in the game then hit Marcus Monk with another
TD pass with 6:47 left. Two-point conversions after the last
two scores made it 38-30. 59 seconds later, the Hogs had the
ball again and Jones scrambled for a first down at the
Arkansas 42. Two plays later, a tipped pass landed in the
hands of Florida's Channing Chowder who returned it to the
Pig 26. The Gators scored moments later to put away the win.
If the pass had not been tipped, Chowder would have never
caught it. That's how fragile this business is.
West Virginia WR John Pennington dropped a very catchable
ball at the goal line with 1:20 left in the half. Then the
extremely special special teams of the Hokies got involved. On
the next play, Jim Davis blocked the field goal attempt and
Vincent Fuller ran 74 yards for a Virginia Tech touchdown.
Instead of the half ending with WVU leading 7-6, the Mountaineers
went to the locker room losing 13-0. That, my friends
is what you will find described when you look up "key play" in
the dictionary.
DUMB AND DUMBER
Apparently, kids from North Carolina don't learn from history.
Last week, a pair of UNC Tarheels were popping off about the
lack of quality in their opposition when Louisville showed up
to play. After the Heels were whipped 34-0, a story appeared
in the Raleigh paper decrying the chain of events leading to
that one-sided Louisville win. With that in mind, explain to me
the "thinking" behind East Carolina's players dancing on the
Cardinal logo in the middle of the field at Papa John Stadium
and shouting insults at the same Louisville players that were
dissed the week before. The result of that taunting? Louisville
beheaded the Pirates 59-7 handing ECU its worst conference
loss ever and the sixth worst whipping in school history. Even
after the game, Pirate QB James Pinkney couldn't hold his
tongue. "They're not the best defense we've played - not by a
long shot." ED NOTE: You may be right, James, but when
you're 0-4, nobody really cares what you think.
THE SMOKER
the little engine
that could - Our Upset Special that will - the Blowout Special
TOM SCOTT'S
SMOKER OF THE YEAR Tom Scott's Number One Play
TOM SCOTT'S 22-5
SMOKER OF THE YEAR
SEE THAT AD OVER THERE ☞
STEAM SHEET SUBSCRIBERS
READ THIS
Judging by the way things are going right now, October is
going to be one of the best months my Late Phone service
has ever had. To make it easy for all subscribers to participate,
I will extend this offer - You can deduct the full price paid for
your subscription from the modest $395 fee. Tom Scott
4* UCLA over Arizona by 21
We missed the boat on Ucla last week against an injured San
Diego State club that never beats the Bruins and we hope
we're not a week late here. But Ucla is awful tough to beat in
Pasadena when you don't score a lot of points. To be more
exact, the Bruins are 22-1 SU and 17-4 ATS at home when
the opponent doesn't get 21. Arizona is averaging 13 points
per game this season, including the 21 scored against Division
I-AA Northern Arizona and all of the games were played at
home. Cory Naddo, our Pac Ten scout, told us that Arizona's
offense is the easiest in the league to defend and that Ucla's
offense is one of the toughest. Karl Dorrell seems to have the
Bruins on track. We don't think he gets derailed here.
STAND TALL, DON'T STOOP HERE 34-13!
THIS WEEKEND
This game is a rock solid 22-5 over the past 27
years, a pocket filling 81% winners!
That game is part of Tom Scott's powerful
SMOKER PACKAGE
described in the flyer that is coming to
your mailbox this week
SEPTEMBER WAS A
WINNING MONTH - AGAIN
Tom Scott is confident that his awesome
LOCKTOBER PACKAGE
will be even better
All Steam Sheet subscribers can deduct the full amount of their
subscription from the already modest LOCKTOBER price of $395.
Read the flyer I sent you then make the call.
3* CINCINNATI over Army by 24
Army almost did it last week but the Knights were unable to
protect a 17-0 lead against a team that had allowed 160 points
in three of its previous four games. As they had done in their
prior 18 games, Army lost. Cincinnati is 17-3 ATS in its last 20
road wins and Army has been beaten by an average of 23
points in its last 19 games. But that's not why we're here. We
have close ties to Cincinnati, (this newsletter was born there)
and we know that the Bearcats regard this game as the turning
point of their season. They don't just want to win, they want
to dominate. Army's porous run defense makes the Bearcats
an almost certain double rusher here.
KID, WKRP AND QUEEN 41-13!
the BIG ENGINE
Call 800-313-2825
3* COLORADO over Oklahoma St by 6
Each of our last two Little Engine games were based on statistics
that identified our sides as underdogs. By the time
game day rolled around, our boys were favored thereby cancelling
the whole logic of our picks. That won't happen this
time. Here, we are taking an underdog that will still be an
underdog on Saturday. Colorado is 10-1 SU against Oklahoma
State in the last 11 meetings and the only loss was by
four points. Those numbers hardly merit OSU's favoritism in
this game. The Cowboys have been getting by with just a
running game but not on the road and not against a good
rush defense. Barnett knows he can't afford to lose this.
WINGS, NEW YORK AND BILL - 26-20!

WHEW! JUST MADE IT!
SOMETIMES YOU'RE THE WINDSHIELD
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: QB Kent Smith ran ten yards for a
touchdown on a fourth-and-two play with 2:58 remaining in
the game to give the Chippewas a 24-21 win over Kent State.
Even after the seemingly decisive score, KSU drove to the
Chip 18 and set up for the potential game-tying field goal.
Daniel Bazuin blocked the Travis Mayle attempt, his second
block of the game, to secure the victory. Keep an eye on the
Chips. Coach Brian Kelly won two national championships
at Grand Valley State. He knows what he's doing.
TCU: The Frogs got down 0-17 to Army before calling injured
QB, Brandon Hassell off the bench in the second half. Hassell
led the Toads to three touchdowns, the last of which was
scored with 41 seconds to go, and handed the Black Knights
their 19th consecutive loss. Both Hassell and starter Tye Gunn
are expected to be back for the UAB game on the 15th.
WYOMING: It wasn't a last minute win but it's worth
mentioning that the Cowboys beat LA Monroe 17-0 in the
second half of their 31-10 win. That marks the tenth time
that Wyoming has had a team from the Southeast into Laramie
and the tenth time it has won the second half and the game.
Flatlanders who make these trips to the 7,200 foot plateau
are usually gasping for air in the middle of the third quarter
accounting for the lopsided second half results.
and SOMETIMES YOU'RE THE BUG
RUTGERS: The Scarlet Knights had a 31-27 lead, the ball
and a first down at the Syracuse 21 with 3:58 to play in the
game. Two runs sandwiched around an incomplete pass led
to a missed field goal, 17 seconds of elapsed time and a
Syracuse first down on its own 25. Another minute and 19
seconds passed before Walter Reyes scampered 21 yards for
the game-winner. Still, the RU backers could take solace in
the pointspread win. Nope! After four straight incompletions,
Syracuse got the ball back and scored with 62 seconds left to
take the money back.
BUCKEYE BULL
I WAS DEAD WRONG
Last week, I spent two or three columns pissing and moaning
about how the Vikings should have beaten the Bears by 40
but couldn't cover the 11' point spread. This week, I lost my
top game again but I can't squawk at anybody by myself. I
faced the reality of the situation after Purdue opened the
second half with a 97-yard pass from Kyle Orton to Taylor
Stubblefield to put the Boilers up by 24. Notre Dame, last
Saturday, was easily the worst pick I've made this year and
could be the most senseless selection of my 28-year
handicapping career. There are several reasons why the pick
was terrible but the biggest reason was that I didn't do my
job. I listened to an "insider" tell me that the Irish were
confident that they would win by double digits because they
had a perfect plan to stop Kyle Orton. Obviously, that was
bad information. Notre Dame didn't even slow Orton down. I
am sorry for the egregious error. It won't happen again.
more COLL STATS
TENDERHEART BEAR
Am I imagining this or are NFL teams feeling sorry for the
Bears and taking it easy on them. Two of the better teams in
the league, who are superior even when the Bears are without
injuries, have "struggled" to post wins of five and ten points
in the last two weeks. You heard me wailing about the
Minnesota debacle last week and I won't say any more about
that but, Philadelphia shoulda done better. The Eagles have
a better team than Minnesota but could manage just one
touchdown against a defense missing FOUR of its starters,
three of which are arguably the best players on the unit. We're
not bitching too loud because Philly was our only NFL win in
the Steam Sheet but it should have been a lot easier. What's
going to have to happen is for Chicago to beat one of these
empathic teams. Once its established that the Bears will not
repay kindnesses, the soft treatment will stop and Chicago
will get its ass kicked on a regular basis.
Locktober power games still ahead
SMOKER OF THE YEAR
COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR
REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
It's not too late to hop aboard the Tom
Scott Express. You know the number
Use it!
M A E T L S F D F Y - A R Y P - C - A Y - P T T
a s l uT 61 81 95 - 33 98 1 - 1 2 - 44 84 2 - 77 1
i i a w aH 01- 44 02 82 1 - 32 79 3 - 3 2 - 54 52 5 - 86 0
t S s a s n a k rA 12 91 15 1 - 92 03 2 - 7 1 - 93 18 3 - 86 2
i p p i s s i s s iM '8 1- 82 12 00 2 - 64 97 1 - 8 1 - 42 97 3 - 07 1
e o r n o M aL 01 51 19 - 03 54 1 - 5 1 - 33 63 2 - 36 0
g n i m o yW 51- 13 03 16 2 - 35 57 1 - 6 1 - 82 63 4 - 18 1
o h a dI 54 42 64 1 - 24 81 3 - 8 2 - 63 46 4 - 87 2
n a g i h c i ME 7- 14 22 64 2 - 24 82 2 - 2 2 - 34 44 4 - 58 2
e t t e y a f a L aL '7- 34 62 34 1 - 73 20 3 - 0 3 - 24 54 4 - 97 2
l t n I a d i r o lF 43 71 28 - 03 56 2 - 2 2 - 53 74 3 - 56 2
t S h a tU 12 02 73 1 - 24 34 1 - 8 1 - 73 08 3 - 97 3
t S y o rT 41- 94 22 35 2 - 05 02 1 - 9 - 61 37 3 - 66 3
t S n n e T d iM 12 32 44 1 - 34 34 2 - 2 2 - 03 78 3 - 37 3
s a x e TN 3- 03 42 67 1 - 04 58 2 - 7 1 - 32 16 4 - 36 1
t S o c i x e MN 0 9 6 1 1 - 23 01 1 - 9 - 82 62 2 - 06 3
P E TU '8- 54 22 66 2 - 85 97 1 - 5 1 - 02 54 4 - 87 1
s e t t e s u h c a s s aM 7 8 6 2 - 92 12 1 - 3 1 - 13 74 1 - 06 1
e g e l l o C n o t s oB ln 92 62 16 2 - 64 55 2 - 8 1 - 33 61 5 - 97 3
l e d a t iC 01 41 24 1 - 63 93 1 - 0 1 - 32 18 2 - 95 3
e k uD ln 82 81 19 1 - 34 60 2 - 8 1 - 52 79 3 - 86 3
8
Other thoughts on the college card. Unless I say otherwise, I have no recommendation on these games.
COLLEGE SMOKE RINGS
S Miss over Houston by 17 THUR
First home game for the Eagles bodes ill for
the Cougs who were absolutely dominated by
Memphis last week. SMissy can choke you.
Virginia over Clemson by 17 THUR
Conflicting trends make this one impossible
to pick. Clemmie 8-1$ as dog vs UVA but the
Cavs are 18-6 to the number in last 24 here.
Byu over Unlv by 9 FRIDAY
After playing three consecutive revenge games
against USC, Boise State and Colorado State,
all as underdogs, the emotional tank may be
too low for Mormons to cover this number.
Florida St over Syracuse by 17
I wouldn't lay 19 here with an FSU team that's
definitely looking ahead to Virginia.
Ohio St over Wisconsin by 1
A 3-2 final score wouldn't surprise me in this
insomniac's dream. Danny likes the Badgers.
E Carolina over Tulane by 4
ECU 1-17 SU last 18 (win over Army). Now
there's a nice piece of chalk for you.
Miami OH over Kent St by 19
Air Force over New Mexico by 1
Lost with the Force in the Little Engine box
last week but still believe. Navy is better than
New Mexico, especially at QB.
Auburn over LA Tech by 25
Tech 5-14 ATS on non-conference road allowing
40 ppg. Moats don't Moater here.
Notre Dame over Stanford by 4
ND 9-0 SU at home off a home loss but we've
had our fill of Irish Stew for one season.
Stanford in a serious revenge mode.
Uab over Mississippi St by 13
Ball St over E Michigan by 9
Strong angle on the Emus but have no confidence
in a team off BB home losses to Eastern
Illinois and Idaho. EMU 26X road losses.
San Diego St over Wyoming by 4
If SDSU were completely healthy, this would
have been our Smoker. Wyoming just 3-26
SU in last 29 league games. Reverse that
number spreadwise for Aztec road wins.
Georgia over Tennessee by 12
Tenny's been a dog of +10+ just four times
since 1988. Vols won three of those games on
the field. Still, not stepping in front of Dawgs.
Florida over Lsu by 1
Don't expect the Bayou Bengals to get
steamrolled again. Saban is too good and
Zook isn't good enough to have that happen.
Usc over California by 7
No question about it, California is the best
dog on the board this week but West Virginia
and Lsu were the best ones last week.
Washington over San Jose St by 18
Watch out, Huskies! Jose is on fire.
Virginia Tech over Wake Forest by 6
If I hadn't tried to beat Wake last week and
lost, I'd be on the Deacons here.
Maryland over Georgia Tech by 11
Tech season falling apart and Ralphie is the
best in the business at burying dead bodies.
Purdue over Penn St by 11
Washington St over Oregon by 1
Think the Ducks will remember that 55-16
beheading they took at home last season?
Count on it. Oregon 14-5$ as pups last 19.
N Illinois over C Florida by 20
Akron over Buffalo by 10
Buffalo has lost 23 MAC road games in a row
and has never won two league games in
succession. Akron might want to vent here.
Vanderbilt over Rutgers by 4
If the Knights had held on in Syracuse last
week, I would have been on them here. Vandy
just 3-10 ATS last 13 as chalk.
Texas Tech over Nebraska by 7
If Joe Dailey throws his usual three picks
down here, the Huskers may get blown right
out of West Texas. Tech 15-2 ATS at home off
a loss when not favored by ten or more.
Missouri over Baylor by 20
Tigers got the game they wanted last week
and Baylor a little tougher than usual.
Toledo over Western Michigan by 11
VIP subscribers will see something incredible
on this game in the Friday update. The rest of
you should stay away from the Rockets.
Alabama over Kentucky by 5
If Shula allows his kids to play the whole
game, Bama has a chance to get back on the
winning track. UK 5-21$ last 26 home losses.
S Carolina over Mississippi by 16
SC has been favored in SEC play by more than
16 only three times in school history. The
Gamecocks won and covered all three. Ole
Miss can't score and SC gives up nothing,
Rice over Smu by 14
The Owls have to be tired, don't they. Smu is
becoming more competitive and could slide
under this number but I won't bet on it.
Fresno St over Texas El Paso by 19
El Paso getting better under Mike Price and
Fresno has to be absolutely deflated after
blowing a game it had won in Louisiana last
week. Not an automatic play here.
Hawaii over Nevada by 19
Wolfpack is flat worn out - and it shows.
ADDED GAMES?
SUBTRACTED!
DANNY T'S COLLEGE
STEAMROLLER SPECIAL
SAT. - 800-313-2825
Tom Scott's
LOCKTOBER PACKAGE
$395 less price of subscription
SMOKER of the YEAR
800-313-2825
Sat. 11 am est
Michigan over Minnesota by 7
Wolves favored by an average of -24 last seven
here. Now it's -3? By the way, Michigan won
them all by at least 15 points each.
Northwestern over Indiana by 11
If the PurpleCats weren't still celebrating the
win over Ohio State, we'd be on them here.
Indiana won't win another game this season.
Michigan St over Illinois by 7
Illini coach Turner pushing the panic button
with his musical QB's. John Smith vowed to
make changes after Iowa debacle. Forget it.
Texas A&M over Iowa St by 9
Texas A&M is 0-8 SU and ATS in its last eight
road games. ISU is 0-9 ATS in its last nine
tries as a conference home dog, all losses by
21 or more. You figure it out.
Pittsburgh over Temple by 14
Bowl Green over C Michigan by 15
BeeGees have it going now but the Chippewas,
with Seymour back, not the patsy they used
to be. Tougher game than Falcons suspect.
NC State over N Carolina by 11
Won't ever back Tarheels until Bunting leaves
but can't get interested in laying doubles with
a suspect Wolfpack offense.
Kansas St over Kansas by 4
Bill Snyder has shown no mercy on the
Jayhawks (10X wins by an average of 40
points) in the last decade. Why will he today?
The top selection of the Mountain Man
MOUNTAIN JACK
3* CLEVELAND over Pittsburgh by 4
I have the feeling that Lee Suggs is the missing piece that will
allow the Browns to make a late run for the playoffs. His
running ability and big play potential coupled with Jeff
Garcia's experience will definitely make Cleveland's offense
more productive. The Browns are a smart 10-4 to the number
as an underdog of +6 or more, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in
division play. While Pittsburgh is pretty tough at home off a
loss (40-22 ATS), the Steelers aren't all that good at home off
a win (2-7 ATS). Pittsburgh is also a lowly 12-31 ATS off a win
against avenging teams, including a poor 7-20 ATS in that role
when made the favorite. We know Big Ben has played a pair
of decent games but they were against an inept Miami team
and a defenseless Cincinnati Bengal. Cleveland will test him.
MESSAGE FROM GARCIA 23-19!
CANNON SHOT
3* SAN DIEGO over Jacksonville by 7
VIP subscribers cashed in against Jacksonville last week as a
Tom Scott Wise Guy play. We later learned that Tom was one
of a handful of professional handicappers who took the Indy
side of the game. Everyone was caught up in the Jacksonville
return to glory campaign. This week, the public will be banging
the Jaguars with both fists figuring that they'll get right back
on the victory wagon. I don't think so. I checked on all road
favorites since 1980 who were underdogs in the previous three
games and do you know what I found? I found that those road
chalkers were a money-burning 29-39 to the number and, if
they were playing an opponent who was off a SU win, a dismal
2-12 against the spread, including a perfect 0-6 ATS if it was
a non-conference game. Electrifying numbers!
LIGHTNING STRIKING AGAIN 23-16!
Another Salvo from Nick's big gun
9
3* MINNESOTA over Houston by 13
I had to fight Tom Scott with blades and daggers to get this
pick into the sheet. You all know how the boss feels about
"Oops" Culpepper and the Vikings. But I won and you don't
know how much I need to win again. Houston won a big game
at Kansas City and everyone expected the Texans to fall on
their faces against Oakland. After all, they had NEVER won
two in a row in their brief history. Now, the skeptics are fewer,
particularly because Houston didn't just beat Oakland, they
pummeled the Raiders. So why is Minnesota going to do what
they couldn't do against the lowly Bears? This is why.
Minnesota mailed that game in, just like Tom Scott said. But,
I can't think of too many other teams that could have gone toeto-
toe with Philadelphia in Philly like the Vikings did three
Mondays ago. With an extra week for Mike Tice to tell his
players what sissies they are, the Vikes will come in here with
fire in their eyes, just like they did in Philly. Houston will have
one hell of a time keeping up.
THOR, ODIN and HAGAR 34-21!
Computer Whiz, Dan Tesinferno's best NFL selection
DAN'S NFL BEST
MOUNTAIN JACK offers his October NFL
Late Phone for just $79!
Get all of Mountain Jack's top NFL selections for the entire month of
October for less than $20 a week. Sign up now and get Jack's first
FIVE STAR game of the year this weekend.
SUNDAY FIVE STAR GAME
800-313-2825 - MAKE THE CALL
SUPER COLLEGE ANGLE
ON FRIDAY'S UPDATE
PAGE
Our best NFL system for this week
NFL ANGLE
PLAY ON
Any NFL Home Favorite who won SU by four
or more as a road underdog in its previous
game but failed to cover the spread as a
home favorite the week before the road win
if the opponent is off a SU and ATS loss.
24 year ATS record = 19-5 for 79.1%
This week's play
ATLANTA minus the points over Detroit

Other NFL games
New England over Miami by 14
I can't think of a single reason to take Miami in this game. We
thought that the Dolphins had a chance to beat the Jets last
week and they did, have a chance that is. They have no chance
to beat New England. If you think the Dolphins could lose but
still cover, keep this in mind. In their last 24 SU losses as an
underdog, the Sea Mammals have ONE pointspread win.
Indianapolis over Oakland by 8
As Nick said, we were one of the few service companies who
had the Colts last week. They were impressive as Peyton
Manning was a perfect 14 for 14 on the three Colt touchdown
drives. So impressive in fact, that nobody will take Oakland
this week which is, of course, precisely why you should. I
would if Rich Gannon was playing but he's not so I won't.
Atlanta over Detroit by 11
Check our NFL Angle of the Week on page nine to see why we
favor the Falcons here. There really isn't anything more to say.
New Orleans over Tampa Bay by 1
Mountain Jack wanted to put Tampa in his featured box but
I wouldn't allow it. We put two winless teams in our featured
slots last week and another on the Top Game Club and, guess
what, they're still winless. Although I agree with Jack, that if
Tampa is ever going to win a game this year, this will be the
one. The Bucs have been an underdog once since 1992 to
these Saints and, on that occasion, Tampa won the whole
game. Jack's probably right on this one. I know one thing - I
sure as hell wouldn't bet against him.
Dallas over NY Giants by 7
We've seen this act too many times to ignore the Cowboys in
this situation. Bill Parcells, in his last 12 games as a head
coach with an extra week to prepare, is 9-3 to the money when
he is favored to win. Moreover, in their last nine tries as a
division home favorite the Pokes have cashed seven tickets.
The Giants' three game win streak ends here.
NY Jets over Buffalo by 6
Chad Pennington played his worst game in two years last week
and his team still won. Thankfully the Jets were playing Miami
because almost any other team would have taken the Jets
down. Buffalo plays defense with the same passion as the
Dolphins so there's no guarantee Pennington will be any
better this week. If he isn't, the Jets are going down.
Denver over Carolina by 4
The Broncos have been limping along with a shell of their
former offensive prowess and have been fortunate to have
been playing teams on the downslope. Still, a one-point loss at
Jacksonville followed by a pair of unexciting wins over San
Diego and Tampa do not portend a blowout here.
Seattle over Saint Louis by 7
Damn that system book. I had Seattle pencilled in as my top
play for this week until the infamous tome revealed a 37-12
angle on the Rams. Trends favor Seattle. The Rams are 12-27
ATS in their last 39 tries as a road dog (2-15$ into revenge).
11
More NFL games
San Francisco and Arizona to tie
No one can win this game. Arizona has lost 15 road games in
a row and the Forty Niners don't look like they could beat San
Jacinto State. The truth is that Arizona has been more
competitive than the Niners but that 15-game losing streak
prohibits us from making a move.
Baltimore over Washington by 3
Such is the NFL. Kansas City stinks up the field three weeks
in a row while Baltimore rips Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to
pieces. It figures that Kansas City would go into Baltimore and
get their lungs ripped out. Nope, the Chiefs just went in and
won the game. Watch out for the Ravens here.
Green Bay over Tennessee by 1
Word has it that both Steve McNair and Brett Favre are going
to play in this one. That's good. However, there are no
handicapping edges that we can use to recommend one side
or the other. That's bad. Or is it?
VIP MEMBERS
DON'T FORGET TO DOWNLOAD PAGE 13 OF THE
STEAM SHEET ON FRIDAY AT 8:00 PM EASTERN.
WE HAVE AT LEAST ONE SIZZLING SYSTEM PLAY AND
PLENTY OF NEWS FROM THE BACKYARD TO PASS
YOUR WAY. DON'T MISS IT.
More Home Cookin'
OHIO U/KENTUCKY: Ohio forced five Kentucky turnovers
in the second half and went on to beat the Wildcats 28-16 in
Lexington. The Bobcats led 14-10 when Matt Muncy picked
off a Shane Boyd pass at the Ohio ten. Four plays later Austen
Everson hit Scott Mayle with a slant pass and Mayle took it
89 yards for a touchdown and a 21-10 lead.
NOTRE DAME/PURDUE: Although Brady Quinn set a Notre
Dame Stadium record with 432 passing yards, the Irish were
no match for Purdue last Saturday. Notre Dame fumbled away
the game on the Purdue three in the second quarter. Poised
to get back within three points, the Irish not only lost a chance
to seize the momentum but gave it back for good by allowing
the Boilermakers to go on a 97-yard drive to finish the half
ahead 20-3. Joe Tiller's game plan was brilliant and Kyle
Orton's play was as close to perfect as it gets. Despite giving
up a ton of yards, Purdue's defense was in control from start
to finish. Purdue now has an inside track for an undefeated
season. The Boilers must play Michigan, Ohio State and
Wisconsin but all those games are in Ross-Ade stadium. The
lone remaining road test will come at Iowa on November 6th.
Here's an interesting note on Tywrong Willbegone. Seven of
the 30 games he has coached at ND have resulted in losses of
22 or more points. Gerry Faust and Bob Davie, arguably the
two worst coaches Notre Dame has ever had, lost a total of
six by that many in TEN years. Ara Parseghian, Lou Holtz
and Dan Devine lost by 22 or more just eight times in TWENTY
EIGHT years at the helm. What's that say about Willingham?
12
HOME COOKIN'
OHIO ST/NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats garnered their
first win over Ohio State since 1971 and their first win in
Evanston since 1958. The Buckeyes trailed 27-17 with 8:47
left but somehow got three chances inside the NU five in that
remaining time. Ohio State got a field goal and a touchdown
to send the game to overtime but the famed Buckeye luck
ran out when Noah Herron crashed in from a yard out. OSU
coach, Jim Tressel was incensed with his team's play and
vowed that everyone involved with the team would work harder
this week. By the way, the NU players are still celebrating
the win as we speak. They are not thinking about Indiana.
MINNESOTA/PENN ST: You can tell the fire is gone from
Joe Paterno when he loses a game then says, "Except for a
couple of mistakes, I thought we played pretty good football.
I was happy with everybody's effort." He was happy with a
defense that allowed five yards per rush and his own running
game that averaged ONE yard per rush. With Minnesota
obviously looking ahead to this week's game at Michigan,
Paterno's Lions could have stolen a much-needed win instead
of playing "pretty good football."
BUFFALO: Jim Hofher, tired of the dysfunctional play of
veterans Randall Secky and PJ Pistorik, turned the
quarterbacking duties over to freshmen Chris Moore and
Datwan Hemingway last Saturday. The kids responded well.
Moore, the passer, completed 5 of 7 for 195 yards and a TD.
Hemingway, the runner, gained 44 yards on six carries.
Neither made a mistake. The Bulls scored their most points
ever in MAC play and came away with an easy 48-20 win.
BOWLING GREEN: We warned our VIP members on last
week's Update page that the Falcons would come out with a
new attitude against Temple. They did. On the game's third
play, Omar Jacobs was intercepted on his own 14 but the
defense held the Owls to a field goal. Jacobs, incensed with
himself after that gaff, completed his next 16 passes on the
way to halftime stats that read 19 of 24 for 306 yards and
four touchdowns. On one series in the first half, three straight
penalties had put BG into a third-and-32 on their own 30.
Jacobs threw a 30-yard completion to Steve Sanders then,
on fourth-and-two, pitched a 40-yard TD pass to Cole Manger.
PJ Pope ran for 106 yards and four TD's on just eight carries.
TOLEDO/BALL ST: Bruce Gradkowski went 26 of 34 for 455
yards and six touchdowns as Toledo exacted revenge for last
year's humiliating loss in Muncie. Kenny Higgins, who had
just 11 receptions for 194 yards in the first four games of the
season, caught ten balls for 233 yards and three touchdowns
against the Testicles. Toledo got on top of the game early. On
the first possession of the game, Gradkowski hit Higgins with
a 60-yard TD pass to put the Rockets up 7-0. After stuffing
Ball State, UT got the ball back on its own four. On the first
play, Gradkowski and Higgins teamed up for a 96-yard score
and a 14-0 lead. It was all over for the Gonads at that point.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Jerry Seymour, CMU's crack TB,
returned to action against Kent State. Seymour gained 131
yards on 28 carries and caught four passes for another 38
yards in the Chippewa win. Seymour and QB Kent Smith
make a potent tandem for coach Brian Kelly's offense.
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS: Anthony Davis returned to action for
the Badgers and rushed 27 times for 213 yards and three
touchdowns. Add 37 receiving yards and Davis accounted for
70% of Wisconsin's 357 total yards. Wisconsin's suffocating
defense held its fifth straight opponent to less than eight
points. His 31-yard TD run with 3:10 left sent the Badger
backers to the "collect here" window. Wisconsin QB John
Stocco had another mediocre day with just 99 yards passing
and a lost fumble. Illinois coach Ron Turner kept shuffling
QB's in and out of the game before finally settling on thirdstringer
Chris Pazan. Turner could be getting desperate. The
Illini had one TD called back for holding and missed a
makeable field goal. Either score would've gotten the money.
AKRON/NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Josh Haldi returned at QB
for NIU after four weeks out with a stress fracture in his foot
and blitzed Akron with 14 of 22 for 191 yards and three TD's.
The Huskies erased any questions about who would win the
game in 64 seconds. With 38 seconds to go in the half, Haldi
tossed a 30-yard TD to Dan Shelton to make it 35-12 NIU.
After a touchback on the second half kickoff, the Dogs needed
two plays and 28 seconds to increase the lead to 30. Charlie
Frye, Akron's one-man gang was sacked seven times and
finally knocked out of the game in the third quarter.
MICHIGAN/INDIANA: Gerry DiNardo decided to put eight
men in the box to stop Michigan's running game and make
freshman QB, Chad Henne beat him. Henne did. He completed
17 of 21 for 316 yards and three touchdowns. Michigan needed
just five plays to subdue the Hoosiers. The Wolverines got a
97-yard kickoff return to set up a one-yard TD run, a 76-
yard punt return for a TD, and Henne's three scoring passes
which covered 40, 38 and 69 yards. Indiana's offense was 0
for 12 on third down conversions.
MICHIGAN ST/IOWA: Michigan State receivers dropped no
less than eight passes, including four that were certain
touchdowns, in the 38-16 loss to Iowa. Drew Stanton
accounted for 336 of Michigan State's 449 yards but the
Hawkeyes got a great performance from young QB Drew Tate.
The "Tater" completed 25 of 36 for 340 yards and a touchdown.
John L Smith was harshly critical of his team. Smith said,
"Are we asking guys to make plays who can't make plays? If
we are, then we better get some new guys. Are they capable
of doing it? If they are, then why aren't they doing it. We were
really bad today." The Spartans can count on one thing:
Practices will not be easy this week.
MARSHALL/MIAMI OH: Marshall's first four scores, two
touchdowns and two field goals came on four drives that
averaged just 27 yards. The Herd forced five Miami turnovers
and had ten tackles for minus yardage in the 33-25 win over
the Red Hawks. Marshall held off two Miami threats to tie the
game in the fourth quarter. With a first-and-goal at the five,
Miami's Mike Smith fumbled the ball through the end zone to
erase that drive with 5:44 to go. Miami got the ball right back
and advanced to the Marshall 38 before turning the ball over
on downs. Martin Nance, Miami's top deep threat and third
all-time leading receiver, was injured on his first reception of
the game and did not return.

[raidaman]

Rocky's Winners Circle

OCTOBER 9, 2004

NFC GAME OF YEAR WEEKEND!
DOUBLE CONFERENCE GAME OF YEARS!
SATURDAY NITE SPECIAL
NFL POWER PLAY

MAC GAME OF YEAR WINS AS TOLEDO ROUTS BALL STATE 52-14
SATURDAY NITE SPECIAL AGGIES STOP KSU 42-30
AFC GAME OF YEAR WINS AS COLTS TOP JAX 24-17
LAST WEEKENDS PHONE PLAYS 14-2 ATS - THATS $$$$$$$


PUBLISHERS PREFERRED PLAY (4-1)
NOTRE DAME -4 ov Stanford
Tough assignment for any team in the land making their first road trip of the season in the month of October, especially egghead student athletes from Stanford who could find this jaunt on the road overwhelming. But those of you who have been with us for a while, know that we cover the Irish pretty well, and know outstanding matchups when we see them, and today is one. Stanford just not as physical as Irish up front, and thats all she wrote. Battle of the trenches will decide this
and it does not help the Cardinals to be in a Pac Ten sandwich either. Cards 0-2 last 2 matchups with Irish, so you might think that WiIllingham could know something, destroying Stanford last season 57-7 on the road, and the Irish were nowhere near the team that they are this season with a much improved interior. Last time they met in South Bend the Irish laid them out in that matchup as well 31-7 as 8.5 pt chalk. Most everyone I will presume will be against the Irish, after all they are 1-9 ATS before Navy, 2-8 ATS vs teams with a win rate of (.600) or better, but Irish own series at 8-3, Cards 2-7 last 9 games on the road - and have rookie QB making 1st road start in tough venue. Irish didn't benefit from the turnover as they had in previous games this season, just as I told you they wouldn't against veteran QB Orton. Irish had edges in first downs (28-22), passing yards (460-413) and even had a clock advantage, but Boilermakers took care of the ball with no turnovers, not even a fumble. Won't be the case today for Cardinals. Road teams making first road trip in OCTOBER have been BAD INVESTMENTS at 5-15 ATS last 20....Irish get this as big as they want as they will wear down this Stanford ball club in the 2nd half. NOTRE DAME 34-17

10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK (3-2)
OHIO +9 ov Marshall
Home series with host covering 5 of last 6, and important stat here is that OHIO is a splendid 5-0 ATS as host in revenge.
Marshall 2-5 ATS as road favorites last 7 and just 6-19 ATS in MAC road games. Ohio coming on and upset of Kentucky not a fluke, as Ohio should have gotten win at Pittsburgh earlier in the season. One of our Conference GAMES OF THE YEAR this weekend is from the Big 12, which last season saw KANSAS + beat Missouri outright 41-24 - and puts our BIG 12 GAME OF YEAR RECORD at (3-0, 18-3-0 ATS) good for 86% ATS lifetime. Join us now for a great weekend of winners for just $79, this includes EVERYTHING on the Millennium Club....and when I say EVERYTHING, I MEAN EVERYTHING for the entire weekend. Sign up BEFORE FRIDAY and we'll throw in any ULTIMATE CLUB GAMES as part of the package (normally $200 per winner). Ohio fine balance gives them shot at moving the ball consistently, and OU has the better defense, making for a fine combination of perhaps another outright dog winner. Points good, and so will be our weekend - Better call us now toll free at 1-866-299-4270. OHIO 28-27

10* NEWSLETTER GAME OF THE WEEK (4-1)
OKLAHOMA -7 ov Texas
until the Longhorns can prove they can get over the "hump" will continue to buck them in this spot until they come up with a win. Longhorns have yet to face a passing team in the class of the Sooners and their Heismann candidate QB, so how will they react in practice, when they can not come near duplicating what the Sooners can do in the actual game? Preparation and rep's are whats important here and no way the 'Horns can get ready properly, I mean who on their "scout" defense and offense can replicate the Sooners? None, and thats the ball game. If you haven't been calling us for our BIG GAME RELEASES then you have truly missed out on great pointspread winners. This week we have TWO CONFERENCE games of the year winners kicking off on Saturday, plus our NFC game of the year, and another superb NFL 20* Power Play, not to forget about our 80% lifetime money maker, the SATURDAY NITE SPECIAL. This week only as a SPECIAL INTRO offer to our consistent winning phone service, we are offering the entire weekend for just SEVENTY NINE BUCKS ($79). Call us now at 1-866-299-4270 and sign up for a great weekend - or send your payments through (www.paypal.com to [email protected]) Our selections are READY NOW! Sooners have dominated this matchup winning the last 4 and covering all 4 in double digit fashion. True its been a dog series covering 13 of 16 meetings, and Horns have a decent 5-1 spread run in Big 12 action. Figure QB White to air it out this week against Texas who had trouble with Hogs triggerman Jones who burned them for 283 yards. On defense Sooners front 7 just too physically tough for Horns to handle. Red River rivalry all Sooner red again and this time we will call it OKLAHOMA 35-14

DOG POUND
CALIFORNIA +7.5 at Southern Cal
UTEP +20 at Fresno State
N CAROLINA +11 ov Nc State
CLEMSON +16.5 ov Virginia
WEST MICHIGAN +15 ov Toledo
SAN DIEGO +3 ov Jacksonville

[runninhorn]

Are the RED SHEETS good picks historically?

Ive noticed they have done quite well so far this year, but does anyone know how they did last year? or the year before? Would like to start tailing them, but not without seeing how they have done in the past........thanks

[ThePhantom]

Sports Memorandum

Anyone have Sports Memorandum??????