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  • #16
    Stoney
    Stay tuned for Leonard

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: RIPPLE

      Originally posted by ShotCallas
      What's up buddy? Do you have access to Tony George, Bryan Leonard or Doc Sports?
      TONY GEORGE WAS 3-0 YESTERDAY.....MY FRIEND GOT HIM FOR THIS WEEK ILL GET THEM THAN POST ..GOODFELLAS SPORTS IS THE HOTTEST CAPPER AROUND THESE DAYS HE HAS A 10* TODAY IM GOING TO BUY IT THAN POST THANKS AND GOOD LUCK

      Comment


      • #18
        Ripple,

        Thanks for the plays i'll be getting a couple service plays myself a bit later around noon.

        BC
        2013 NCAA POD Record

        8-3ATS +3.80 units

        2013 NFL POD Record

        1-2 ATS -4.50 units

        Comment


        • #19
          Sixth Sense

          Not just a nice week last week, but a superb week, going 5-0 +15.00% with
          all five games easily covering the spread. It doesn’t get much easier than
          that.

          The funny thing about this great start of three straight winning weeks, up
          over +25.00% and off a 5-0 week is the following. First, I didn’t even like
          the card last week. Just goes to show how important it is to plan the work
          and work the plan with faith. This week I love the card. Just hope my
          barometer, which was very far off last week (thankfully) isn’t equally off
          this week. The other thing is when this happens, I get emails across the
          board from 1) Do I raise my wagers to 2) I wonder when the correction will
          occur (we’re not going to win over 70% of our games this year) to 3) I’ve
          now made enough money for the year, I think I’m done. Very interesting.

          First, I don’t believe in raising the wagers. Enough said on that. Second,
          the correction will occur but I don’t think it is due yet. If we’re still
          hitting over 70% halfway through the season, then we can expect that
          correction. But, the sample size is still pretty small. We could go 60% over
          the next 40 plays, going 24-16 and still be at 64% after that “correction.”
          So, I still think we have time to enjoy the run and the thinking is (knock
          on wood) very solid right now. Keep everything in perspective and continue
          to use discipline.

          I’ve also attached this analysis in a Word document as well as an Excel
          spreadsheet showing the stats I use versus the opponents they have faced.
          Any questions, please let me know.

          This will be on Friday evenings, going forward. If you haven’t received your
          report by 7:00 p.m. central time on Friday, please send me an email.

          Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

          League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

          Average Points Scored 19.0
          Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
          Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
          Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.2

          I am adding one other item this year. Under each game listed you will see an
          average score for the teams that are playing listed. This average represents
          the average score between these two teams playing at this site over the past
          ten seasons. I also will be listing the spread record and over/under record
          for these two teams at this site for the past ten seasons. One hint is when
          we have a sample of at least five games and the average score is at least
          seven points from today’s line, playing on that team that it favors has been
          extremely profitable.

          For example:

          NEW ENGLAND –3.5 Indianapolis 44

          3-6-0/3-6-0 16-26.3

          Away teams record is always listed first. Indy is 3-6-0 ATS (first set of
          numbers) and also 3-6-0 OU (second set of numbers) playing at NE during the
          past ten seasons. Their average score is 16-26.3, losing by an average of
          10.3 points per game when playing at NE. That’s a difference of 6.8 points
          in favor of NE. They win by an average of 10.3 points per game and the line
          is currently 3.5. Remember, anything at seven or higher creates historical
          value for that team when the sample is at least five games. You might say
          teams change and you can’t rely on this but I’ll tell you these teams win at
          a 56% clip so you better have good reason to play against this, even though
          it represents team trends and not league wide trends.

          GREEN BAY –7 NY Giants 44

          0-1-0/0-1-0 6-14

          The Giants are certainly making the most of their schedule this year and Tom
          Coughlin’s strict rules seem to be paying dividends as the team is now 2-1.
          It gets a little tougher this week against Green Bay, who should be hungry
          after losing two in a row. The Packers defense was shredded against one of
          the best offenses in the league last week, Indianapolis. Much of that was
          because Indy’s offense is so good and a part of it was because GB is very
          banged up, not only in the secondary, but also at nose tackle. The Giants
          don’t throw the ball as well as Indy but they are averaging 6.9 yps against
          6.0 yps this year. Their offense has been above average, gaining 5.7 yps
          against 5.2 yps. For GB, their defense has played well against the rush,
          allowing just 3.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr but the passing game has been hit
          hard, mostly from last week, allowing 7.7 yps against 7.0 yps and the
          defense, as a whole, is allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.9 yppl. On the other
          side, the Giants defense is allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.1 yps
          against 6.1 yps against a Green Bay offense that is averaging 3.9 ypr
          against 4.0 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.8 yps and 5.3 yppl against 5.6 yppl.
          Those numbers suggest GB is below average offensively and that is the case
          but their offense is better than that and I expect them to be able to move
          the ball this week. GB’s poor defensive performance last week sets them up
          in similar negative situations, which are 82-45-2 and 176-107-11 (including
          already 4-1 TY). For GB, their rushing attack and rush defense is better
          than the Giants and that sets them up in a very good 71-32-5 fundamental
          rushing situation. Final numbers (using only this years numbers) greatly
          favor the Giants here by as much as ½ point and six points. The situations
          cancel each other out but there is no way GB can lay this many points until
          their defense shows it can play better. The Giants have been living off of
          turnovers but they’re getting enough points here with a good enough offense
          and a Packers defense that isn’t good enough to be laying this many points
          yet. GREEN BAY 24 NY GIANTS 23

          Philadelphia –9 CHICAGO 39.5

          2-2-0/2-2-0 21.5-17

          The theory a couple of weeks ago was that Detroit and Chicago were even,
          when the Bears were installed as three point favorites over Detroit. Detroit
          won that game but mostly because of fluke plays, while Chicago played pretty
          well in that game (out gaining Chicago 4.9 yppl to 4.6 yppl). Last week
          Philly was laying 4.5 points at Detroit and won the game easily, by
          dominating Detroit 6.4 yppl to 4.1 yppl. This week they play a Chicago team
          that might be better than Detroit but now laying nine points. I realize Rex
          Grossman is out for Chicago but they are playing very well right now,
          including running the ball well, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr. They
          averaged 4.0 ypr against a good Detroit rush defense, 5.2 ypr against Green
          Bay two weeks ago and 5.2 ypr against Minnesota last week. They’ve played
          competitive games against Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota so far. All those
          numbers should bode well against a Philly rush defense, which is allowing
          5.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Going the other way, Philly’s offense is averaging
          7.9 yps against 6.6 yps and that should fit well against a Bears secondary
          allowing 7.6 yps against 6.9 yps. Chicago qualifies in numerous situations
          in this game, which are 44-15-0 and three different fundamental rushing
          situations, which are 115-55-7, 71-32-5, 534-411-33 (and subsets that are
          432-306-24, 327-221-17). Final numbers favor Philly by 13 or 6.5 points,
          which favor both teams. Fundamentals favor Chicago, getting plenty of points
          at home to stay within the number or get the back door cover. This game also
          qualifies in a 148-77-2 under situation. My final numbers only show 32
          points being scored but I’ll only lean with the under because of the solid
          Philly offense. PHILADELPHIA 20 CHICAGO 17

          Washington –2.5 CLEVELAND 35

          No Plays

          Not much interest in this game. Both offenses are well below average, with
          Washington gaining just 4.0 ypr against 4.6 ypr, 5.6 yps against 6.0yps, and
          4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. For Cleveland, their offense is gaining 4.4ypr
          against 4.3ypr, 4.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The
          Washington defense is better than the Cleveland defense, allowing just
          4.3yppl against 5.4yppl, while Cleveland is allowing 5.7yppl against
          5.6yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a power rating situation, which plays on
          teams who are due to bounce back after games, which are well below their
          yearly rating, in the right situation. That situation is 130-70-11. Final
          numbers greatly favor Cleveland by either seven points or three points. This
          game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 80-45-2. Unfortunately,
          my numbers suggest just 26 points being scored in this game, which conflicts
          with the over situation. As I’ve said many times before, I trust the
          situations more than the numbers, although the situations and numbers favor
          Cleveland here, but I’ll also lean with the over, because of the situation.
          CLEVELAND 20 WASHINGTON 16

          New England –5.5 BUFFALO 34.5

          5-4-1/3-7-0 19.7-15.6

          Buffalo’s season has progressed along much like last year, great defense and
          terrible offense. Their offense is gaining just 2.7ypr against 3.3ypr,
          5.5yps against 5.9yps, 4.1yppl against 4.7yppl. They’ll face a NE defense,
          which isn’t going to yield much, allowing 4.3ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.6yps
          against 6.4yps, 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. That probably means the Buffalo
          offense will be slightly below average in this game. On the other side,
          Buffalo is allowing just 3.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.1yps against 6.1yps and
          4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. That defense will face a NE offense averaging
          4.3ypr against 5.1ypr, 7.7yps against 6.8yps and 6.1yppl against 6.1yppl.
          Those numbers suggest the NE offense may turn in an even more below average
          offense than Buffalo’s. Buffalo almost qualifies in a situation, which is
          58-22-2. They don’t actually qualify in that but it’s close enough to
          consider and make note of. Final numbers favor NE by either six points or
          four points. I’ll favor the better defense. Final numbers also suggest about
          33 points being scored. That’s right about at the total, but I’ll still lean
          towards the under, despite the low total. BUFFALO 17 NEW ENGLAND 16

          Oakland –2.5 HOUSTON 42

          No Plays

          Have to give Oakland their props with their offense this year. The running
          game is above average, gaining 3.9ypr against 3.6ypr but it’s the Oakland
          passing game that is making strides, averaging a whopping 7.2yps against
          only 5.4yps. On offense as a whole, they are averaging 5.7yppl against
          4.5yppl. That should work just fine against a Houston defense, which is
          allowing 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr and especially against a poor pass defense,
          which is allowing 6.7yps against 5.4yps. As a whole, Houston is allowing
          5.4yppl against 4.8yppl. For Houston, their offense hasn’t been as good as
          Oakland but their success comes where Oakland’s defense is at its worse.
          Their rushing game is only averaging 3.4ypr against 3.8ypr but it’s the
          passing game that continues to play well, averaging 7.7yps against 7.3yps.
          They’ll face an Oakland defense that is allowing 6.4yps against 5.4yps and
          5.0yppl against 4.5yppl. That bodes well for this game as far as the total
          is concerned. Both teams can throw the ball and neither team can stop the
          pass. Final numbers project about 46 points being scored, which is above the
          total in this game. As for the side, Houston qualifies in similar home
          momentum situations, which are 78-44-2 (including a subset which is 35-7-1)
          and 158-111-10. They also qualify in a game four situation, which is 32-8-2.
          For Oakland, they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is
          534-411-33, including subsets, which are 432-306-24 and 327-221-17. Houston
          qualifies in more situations, but the situation Oakland qualifies in is
          stronger. Final numbers also favor Oakland by five and 7.5 points. I’ll lean
          with Oakland here based on the stronger situation and value, but the
          stronger play here is the total. OAKLAND 27 HOUSTON 24

          Indianapolis –3.5 JACKSONVILLE 43

          1-2-0/3-0-0 30.7-28.0

          The world got to see how good Indy’s offense was last week and that’s what
          they’ll remember most. But, as usual, they’ll also forget how bad their
          defense is. They’ll also constantly be reminded this week how poor the
          Jacksonville offense is and there is no way they can stay with that potent
          Indy offense. These two teams are at about the same place they were a year
          ago when they played here, in terms of yards per play. The biggest
          difference here is Jacksonville is actually winning games this year, unlike
          last year and they have even more experience. Jacksonville’s offense is
          still below average, gaining just 4.3yppl against 4.6yppl. They’ve also
          played two of the best defenses in the league this year in Buffalo and
          Denver. Their offensive numbers, in terms of how far off from average they
          are, are actually similar to GB. GB moved the ball at will and Jacksonville
          scored 28 points here last year. I don’t see any reason they can’t do that
          again. Indy is allowing 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and
          6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. This is the best defense they have faced this year.
          For Indy, yes, the offense has been fantastic, averaging 4.4ypr against
          4.3ypr, 8.5yps against 6.3yps, 6.6yppl against 5.5yppl. But, they’ll face a
          Jacksonville defense, which is allowing just 3.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.5yps
          against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 4.9yppl. Looking at those numbers, that
          makes these two teams almost even, with a slight edge to Indianapolis. But,
          Jacksonville qualifies in similar home momentum situations, which are
          78-44-2 and 158-111-10. Indy also qualifies in negative letdown situations,
          which are 99-52-3 and 82-44-5. More importantly, Jacksonville also qualifies
          in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 115-55-7. Along with that, the
          numbers favor Jacksonville by six points and 2.5 points, giving us fantastic
          value to the home underdog. There shouldn’t be any reason Jacksonville can’t
          score at least 20 points at home against a poor Indy defense. If they do,
          they stand an excellent chance at covering. When scoring at least 20 points,
          Jacksonville is now 52-23-5. Meanwhile, Indy, during the Peyton Manning era,
          is just 6-20 when allowing 20 or more points and favored by more than three
          points including just 1-7 in that same situation, when on the road. As for
          the total, that is hard to call. Final numbers suggest about 39 points but I
          have a feeling Jacksonville will score more than suggested and Indy can
          still score, even against good defenses. Home dog, plenty of value and
          situations make this an obvious call. JACKSONVILLE 27 INDIANAPOLIS 23

          PITTSBURGH –5 Cincinnati 38.5

          6-3-1/4-6-0 15.4-18.7

          I’ve been saying all year that Cincinnati might be the most overrated team
          and they have done nothing to change my mind so far. The Bengal’s are 1-2
          only because they were allowed to play an inept offense in Miami and they
          should have lost that game. Their defense is allowing 5.7ypr against 4.2ypr,
          6.1yps against 5.4yps and 5.9yppl against 4.8yppl. That doesn’t bode well
          for Cincinnati when facing a Steeler’s offense, which is averaging 3.7ypr
          against 3.7ypr, 6.0yps against 5.5yps and 4.8yppl against 4.7yppl. The
          Steeler’s above average defense shouldn’t have any problems shutting down
          the below average Bengal’s offense. Pittsburgh is allowing just 3.1ypr
          against 3.9ypr, 5.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl. For
          Cincinnati, they are averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.1yps against
          5.5yps and 4.6yppl against 4.8yppl. Cincinnati does qualify in a solid
          bounce back situation, which is 112-61-5 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a
          fundamental rushing situation, which is 534-411-33, including the best
          subset of that situation, which is 139-61-7 and won with Baltimore over
          Cincinnati last week. Final numbers project Pittsburgh by eight points and
          12.5 points. Final total projects about 43 points, which would lean towards
          the over. The situation Pittsburgh qualifies in is stronger and the value
          lies with them. I think this is an easy call. I don’t have enough to make
          the play but Pittsburgh is the obvious choice here. PITTSBURGH 27 CINCINNATI
          17

          CAROLINA –3.5 Atlanta 38.5

          3-4-2/2-7-0 16.8-17.7

          I don’t have any situations favoring either team here so the side is a bit
          of a toss up for me. Atlanta is 3-0 but I don’t think they are that good,
          having defeated Arizona, an overrated Rams team and San Francisco. Carolina
          has lost to Green Bay and defeated a good, but overrated Kansas City team.
          What I like best here is both team’s offenses are below average and both
          team’s defenses are above average. That has the makings for an under.
          Atlanta is averaging just 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl and while their strength
          has been the rush, averaging 5.5ypr against 4.6ypr, it will be tough for
          either Vick or Warrick Dunn to gain yards on the ground against a Carolina
          defense, which is allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.5ypr and 4.3yppl against
          5.2yppl. On the other side, Carolina is averaging just 5.3yppl against
          5.9yppl and they’ll find the going equally as tough against an Atlanta
          defense, which is allowing just 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. My final numbers
          suggest a one point Atlanta victory and a 2.5 point Carolina victory. But,
          more importantly, the final total projected here is only 26 points, which
          gives us tremendous value to the under along with the fundamentals of two
          below average offenses and two above average defenses. CAROLINA 15 ATLANTA
          12

          New Orleans –3 ARIZONA 40

          2-0-0/0-2-0 19-14.5

          I have no situations that favor either side in this game. The Arizona
          offense is the second worse offense in the league, second to only Miami.
          Nobody really talks about how bad their offense is. They are averaging just
          4.0yppl against 5.3yppl, equally as bad rushing and passing the football.
          The difference is their defense isn’t anywhere close to Miami’s defense.
          Arizona is allowing 5.9yppl against 5.9yppl, which makes their defense
          average. For the Saints, their offense is working just fine, especially in
          the passing game, where they average 6.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl
          against 5.0yppl overall. On defense, NO is below average, allowing 5.7yppl
          against 5.3yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass.
          Whether Arizona can take advantage of that or not remains to be seen. Final
          numbers favor Arizona by one point and NO by 1.5 points. That would give the
          value to Arizona but I’ll still lean with the better team overall. As for
          the total, final numbers suggest only 30 points being scored and this game
          does qualify in a 322-238-12 under situation. I worry a little about the
          Saints defense, in terms of keeping the scoring down, but the under is
          probably the way to go. NEW ORLEANS 17 ARIZONA 13

          NY Jets –6 MIAMI 37

          6-4-0/4-6-0 19.9-24.3

          Now, we get to the worse offense in the league, Miami. The Fins are
          averaging just 3.5yppl against 5.1yppl this season. They average just 2.1ypr
          against 4.4ypr and 4.4yps against 5.7yps. Luckily for Miami, they will face
          a bad Jets defense, who is allowing 4.2ypr against 3.7ypr, 7.1yps against
          5.4yps and 5.8yppl against 4.7yppl overall. The Jets defense is equally as
          bad as the Cincinnati defense Miami faced two weeks ago. Miami should have
          won that game and that game was on the road. Accounting for the poor Jets
          defense and the poor Miami offense, Miami should operate around 0.5yppl
          worse than an average offense, which is a significant improvement over what
          they have done so far this season. For the Jets on offense, they have been
          solid, averaging 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 8.4yps against 7.3yps and 6.5yppl
          against 5.9yppl. They’ll face a very good Miami defense, which is allowing
          4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.1yps against 5.3yps and 4.1yppl against 4.7yppl.
          Based on those numbers, the Jets should end up with an average game on
          offense for an NFL team. That gives a slight advantage to the Jets in this
          game, but not enough to counter the large number they are laying on the
          road. Miami qualifies in a game four situation, which is 58-22-2. Meanwhile,
          the Jets qualify in a negative letdown situation, which is 82-44-5 and Miami
          qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11. That situation
          concludes that Miami played well below their normal power rating expectation
          last week and are due to bounce back. The Jets do qualify in a fundamental
          rushing situation, which is 534-411-33, including a subset, which is
          432-306-24. They don’t, however, qualify in any of the better subsets. Final
          numbers suggest a nine or 8.5 point Jets victory but the situations clearly
          favor Miami, making this line about right. As for the total, final numbers
          suggest about 40 points being scored but this game qualifies in a 51-22-5
          under situation. I’ll trust the situation more than the numbers. Also,
          remember our past history section. Miami usually wins these games here by
          about 4.4 points, giving us plenty of value in the past history section,
          which is a 56% long term play historically. I don’t have enough guts to call
          for the out right upset but Miami and their defense get the cover here with
          the generous line. NY JETS 18 MIAMI 16

          Denver –3 TAMPA BAY 35

          0-0-1/0-1-0 10-13

          I don’t have any situations favoring either side or total in this game.
          Interesting, however, is the TB offense, which hasn’t played well, but they
          are now back to average offensively, gaining 4.5yppl against 4.5yppl and 12
          points per game against teams allowing just 13 points per game. They have
          obviously played some good defenses, when you see they are playing teams
          allowing those types of numbers. For Denver, they are also above average
          defensively, allowing just 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl and above average against
          both, the run and the pass. On the other side, the Denver offense has been
          above average, gaining 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl and slightly above average
          with both, the run and the pass. For TB, they are allowing 4.9yppl against
          5.2yppl, but 4.2ypr against 3.7ypr. Those numbers really make this game a
          toss up and TB played Seattle very tough here a few weeks ago. Final numbers
          make this game a pick ‘em and favor Denver by five points with a final total
          around 33 points. I’ll lean slightly with a hungry TB team who can play
          defense and is getting points at home. DENVER 17 TAMPA BAY 16

          Tennessee –3 SAN DIEGO 41

          No Plays

          Tennessee appears to have taken some large steps backwards this year. Chris
          Brown certainly has helped the rushing game as they average 4.9ypr against
          4.0ypr but the passing game, which has usually been very strong is now very
          weak. They are averaging just 4.8yps against 5.8yps, and 4.9yppl against
          5.0yppl overall. They’ll face a SD defense, which has been very stout
          against the rush, allowing just 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, including holding the
          Broncos to their lowest rush total under the Mike Shanahan era last week.
          The Chargers are allowing 8.3yps against 7.6yps this year but it remains to
          be seen if Tennessee can take advantage of that. For the year, SD is
          allowing 5.9yppl against 5.8yppl. On the other side, SD is averaging 3.7ypr
          against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll
          take on a Titans defense, which has been below average, allowing a whopping
          4.6ypr against 3.5ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 4.9yppl
          overall. These two teams are about equal based on the before mentioned
          numbers. But, SD qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11
          and suggests they are due to bounce back from a poor performance last week.
          They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 115-55-7.
          Final numbers favor SD by four and 3.5 points so there is plenty of value
          with SD in this game. Solid situations based around contrarian and
          fundamentals, along with value make this an easy play. SAN DIEGO 24
          TENNESSEE 17

          St Louis –3.5 SAN FRANCISCO 44

          3-7-0/5-5-0 17.9-29.8

          Oh, our beloved Rams. I love teams like this because they produce high
          octane offenses and poor defenses, which allow us to swoop on in and take
          advantage of the people who love high octane offenses with no defenses. The
          Rams offense has been solid, averaging 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.8yps against
          6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They’ll face a 49ers defense, which has
          been very solid against the rush, allowing just 2.9ypr against 4.2ypr. The
          Rams should be able to take advantage of the below average 49ers pass
          defense, which allows 6.7yps against 6.4yps. Overall, the 49ers allow
          4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The 49ers offense has been below average overall,
          gaining just 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl, but they are averaging 4.3ypr against
          3.8ypr and that should sit very well against a terrible Rams defense, which
          is allowing 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 5.5yps and 6.1yppl against
          5.0yppl. SF qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11. They
          also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 115-55-7 and
          534-411-33, including subsets, which are 432-306-24, 327-221-17 and
          244-143-13. Final numbers also favor SF by two points and 1.5 points. There
          is simply no reason for an over rated Rams team with a terrible defense to
          be laying points on the road. This game also qualifies in a 80-45-2 over
          situation and my final numbers indicate about 55 points being scored in this
          game. Past history also greatly favors SF here (remember that is a long term
          56% play) and past history suggests an average of almost 48 points being
          scored. That past history isn’t just from the glory days of the 49ers as
          they destroyed the Rams last year here, 30-10. Another easy home dog. SAN
          FRANCISCO 30 ST LOUIS 24

          BALTIMORE –5.5 Kansas City 41

          2-1-0/2-1-0 23-17.7

          Much has been made about the Chiefs and I have gone against them every week
          this season with either a best bet or a strategy play from my book. But,
          finally when everybody is talking about how bad they are, I’m here to say
          they actually aren’t that bad. This team could easily be 2-1 and then this
          line would be closer to about three points. While KC won here last year,
          17-10, they didn’t necessarily deserve to win the game but they were laying
          seven points and now, all of a sudden, they are getting 5.5 points, which
          might be more come game time. The KC offense is actually averaging 5.1yppl
          against 4.7yppl, including 5.1ypr against 4.0ypr. They’ll face a Baltimore
          defense, which everyone thinks is outstanding, but numbers wise, has
          actually played below average. They are allowing 4.8yppl against 4.6yppl.
          The rush defense has been good, allowing just 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr. All
          things equal, these numbers say KC should play at about 0.6yppl better than
          an average NFL team. Going the other way, KC is allowing 29 points per game
          against teams averaging just 21 points per game but they are allowing just
          5.6yppl against 5.5yppl, so the defense is actually playing well. It’s just
          turnovers and short fields that are killing their defense. Everybody thinks
          their defense is terrible and while it isn’t great, it’s not as bad as some
          people are making it sound. For Baltimore, their offense overall is below
          average, gaining just 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl but the rush attack is
          averaging 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr. That should help against a KC defense,
          which is allowing 4.6ypr against 3.8ypr. So, while the KC defense is playing
          better they are still allowing a lot of yards via the rush. What’s happening
          here is teams are rushing the ball, which makes the KC defense, numbers wise
          look pretty decent. But, if teams want to continue to do that, they will use
          up large chunks of time and allow a team like KC to stay within the large
          number. Baltimore does qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 62-29-2
          but everything else belongs to KC. The Chiefs qualify in a contrary
          situation, which is 112-61-5 and also a bounce back situation, which is
          123-70-4 and another bounce back, which is 71-42-2 Meanwhile, Baltimore
          qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is an amazing 109-46-4,
          including a subset, which is 92-24-2. Final numbers contradict these
          situations, suggesting Baltimore by 12 and 10 points, but, as I’ve said
          before, the situations mean more than the numbers. This game also qualifies
          in an over situation, which is 80-45-2 and final numbers suggest about 45
          points. If this total goes to 42 or higher, the game would also qualify in
          an under situation, which is 228-128-8. That probably means it’s best to
          leave the total alone but I would lean towards the over. Does KC get their
          first win? Maybe. KANSAS CITY 24 BALTIMORE 21


          BEST BETS

          YTD 14-5 +25.40%

          3% CHICAGO +9
          3% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
          3% MIAMI +6
          3% SAN DIEGO +3
          3% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
          3% KANSAS CITY +5.5
          3% OAKLAND/HOUSTON OVER 42
          3% ATLANTA/CAROLINA UNDER 38.5
          3% ST LOUIS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 44

          Comment


          • #20
            Ripple
            Tony George is a waste of time. Through last weekend he was 4-6 -3.8 units in the NFL including losing his 3 unit GOM.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by who2beton
              Ripple
              Tony George is a waste of time. Through last weekend he was 4-6 -3.8 units in the NFL including losing his 3 unit GOM.
              I KNOW HE SUXS BUT SOMEONE ASKED FOR HIM ..HE DID GO 3-0 IN COLLEGE MY FRIEND BOUGHT HIS PLAYS FOR 1 WEEK ..SO FAR MY FRIEND TOLD ME HE;S 4-0 INCLUDING FRI NITE THANKS & GOODLUCK

              Comment


              • #22
                GOODFELLAS SPORTS

                HE;S UP 52 UNITS FOR THE WEEK ONLY LOST 1 GAME ALL WEEK

                10* OAK RAIDERS -2

                HE LOVES THEM BIG

                Comment


                • #23
                  BRYAN LEONARD

                  FOR Y'ALL WHO LOVE BRYAN LEONARD HeRE ARE HIS HILTON CONTEST PLAYS. These are NOT pay plays, they are just the teams he picked for that contest:
                  GREEN BAY
                  CHICAGO
                  CAROLINA
                  TENN
                  S.F.
                  Last edited by SuperZero; 10-03-2004, 10:04 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    football

                    what does lenny stevens have in store
                    mikeymilk

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      todays picks

                      what does lenny stevens have in store
                      mikeymilk

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        LARRY NESS ... JAGS

                        MARC LAWRENCE...HOUSTON

                        BIG AL... DENVER

                        KEN ANGLAND... CLEVELAND

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          lenny stevens

                          i know he has a nfl underdog game of the month today
                          mikeymilk

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            football pick of the week

                            greenbay by three touchdowns
                            mikeymilk

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              PELLMAN SPORTS FOOTBALL SELECTIONS:

                              Top Selections (4-2-0 .800)
                              Top Selection on Buffalo +6
                              We'll all be at the game today (as usual) cheering this one on. No we didn't bet with our hearts here. We found a load of systems and trends supporting this one. Not to mention Buffalo always plays NE strong at home. Our reports show the public money is 88% on New England. We like it!

                              Best Bets (10-7-0 .572)
                              Best Bet on Pittsburgh -5
                              Best Bet on Miami +6.5

                              Opinions (10-8-0 .500)
                              Opinion on Tampa +3
                              Opinion on Jacksonville +3.5
                              Opinion on Houston +2

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                The Ultimate Prediction Machine!

                                The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering.

                                NFL Week 4 , 2004
                                Matchup

                                Line
                                (home)

                                Pick

                                Cover %
                                Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

                                -3.5

                                Pittsburgh

                                62 %
                                Indianapolis at Jacksonville

                                +4

                                Jacksonville

                                59 %
                                Oakland at Houston

                                +1.5

                                Oakland

                                54 %
                                New England at Buffalo

                                +5.5

                                Buffalo

                                54 %
                                Philadelphia at Chicago

                                +9

                                Chicago

                                57 %
                                Washington at Cleveland

                                +2.5

                                Cleveland

                                62 %
                                NY Giants at Green Bay

                                -7

                                NY Giants

                                72 %
                                Atlanta at Carolina

                                -3.5

                                Atlanta

                                57 %
                                New Orleans at Arizona

                                +3.5

                                Arizona

                                64 %
                                NY Jets at Miami

                                +5.5

                                Miami

                                52 %
                                Tennessee at San Diego

                                +3

                                San Diego

                                67 %
                                Denver at Tampa Bay

                                +3

                                Denver

                                54 %
                                St. Louis at San Francisco

                                +4

                                San Francisco

                                52 %
                                Kansas City at Baltimore

                                -4.5

                                Baltimore

                                64 %

                                Comment

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