Sunday's Service Plays & Request Thread

[who2beton]

Stoney
Stay tuned for Leonard

[Ripple]

Re: RIPPLE

Originally posted by ShotCallas
What's up buddy? Do you have access to Tony George, Bryan Leonard or Doc Sports?

TONY GEORGE WAS 3-0 YESTERDAY.....MY FRIEND GOT HIM FOR THIS WEEK ILL GET THEM THAN POST ..GOODFELLAS SPORTS IS THE HOTTEST CAPPER AROUND THESE DAYS HE HAS A 10* TODAY IM GOING TO BUY IT THAN POST THANKS AND GOOD LUCK

[10DimeBry]

Ripple,

Thanks for the plays i'll be getting a couple service plays myself a bit later around noon.

BC

[who2beton]

Sixth Sense

Not just a nice week last week, but a superb week, going 5-0 +15.00% with
all five games easily covering the spread. It doesn’t get much easier than
that.

The funny thing about this great start of three straight winning weeks, up
over +25.00% and off a 5-0 week is the following. First, I didn’t even like
the card last week. Just goes to show how important it is to plan the work
and work the plan with faith. This week I love the card. Just hope my
barometer, which was very far off last week (thankfully) isn’t equally off
this week. The other thing is when this happens, I get emails across the
board from 1) Do I raise my wagers to 2) I wonder when the correction will
occur (we’re not going to win over 70% of our games this year) to 3) I’ve
now made enough money for the year, I think I’m done. Very interesting.

First, I don’t believe in raising the wagers. Enough said on that. Second,
the correction will occur but I don’t think it is due yet. If we’re still
hitting over 70% halfway through the season, then we can expect that
correction. But, the sample size is still pretty small. We could go 60% over
the next 40 plays, going 24-16 and still be at 64% after that “correction.”
So, I still think we have time to enjoy the run and the thinking is (knock
on wood) very solid right now. Keep everything in perspective and continue
to use discipline.

I’ve also attached this analysis in a Word document as well as an Excel
spreadsheet showing the stats I use versus the opponents they have faced.
Any questions, please let me know.

This will be on Friday evenings, going forward. If you haven’t received your
report by 7:00 p.m. central time on Friday, please send me an email.

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 19.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.2

I am adding one other item this year. Under each game listed you will see an
average score for the teams that are playing listed. This average represents
the average score between these two teams playing at this site over the past
ten seasons. I also will be listing the spread record and over/under record
for these two teams at this site for the past ten seasons. One hint is when
we have a sample of at least five games and the average score is at least
seven points from today’s line, playing on that team that it favors has been
extremely profitable.

For example:

NEW ENGLAND –3.5 Indianapolis 44

3-6-0/3-6-0 16-26.3

Away teams record is always listed first. Indy is 3-6-0 ATS (first set of
numbers) and also 3-6-0 OU (second set of numbers) playing at NE during the
past ten seasons. Their average score is 16-26.3, losing by an average of
10.3 points per game when playing at NE. That’s a difference of 6.8 points
in favor of NE. They win by an average of 10.3 points per game and the line
is currently 3.5. Remember, anything at seven or higher creates historical
value for that team when the sample is at least five games. You might say
teams change and you can’t rely on this but I’ll tell you these teams win at
a 56% clip so you better have good reason to play against this, even though
it represents team trends and not league wide trends.

GREEN BAY –7 NY Giants 44

0-1-0/0-1-0 6-14

The Giants are certainly making the most of their schedule this year and Tom
Coughlin’s strict rules seem to be paying dividends as the team is now 2-1.
It gets a little tougher this week against Green Bay, who should be hungry
after losing two in a row. The Packers defense was shredded against one of
the best offenses in the league last week, Indianapolis. Much of that was
because Indy’s offense is so good and a part of it was because GB is very
banged up, not only in the secondary, but also at nose tackle. The Giants
don’t throw the ball as well as Indy but they are averaging 6.9 yps against
6.0 yps this year. Their offense has been above average, gaining 5.7 yps
against 5.2 yps. For GB, their defense has played well against the rush,
allowing just 3.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr but the passing game has been hit
hard, mostly from last week, allowing 7.7 yps against 7.0 yps and the
defense, as a whole, is allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.9 yppl. On the other
side, the Giants defense is allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.1 yps
against 6.1 yps against a Green Bay offense that is averaging 3.9 ypr
against 4.0 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.8 yps and 5.3 yppl against 5.6 yppl.
Those numbers suggest GB is below average offensively and that is the case
but their offense is better than that and I expect them to be able to move
the ball this week. GB’s poor defensive performance last week sets them up
in similar negative situations, which are 82-45-2 and 176-107-11 (including
already 4-1 TY). For GB, their rushing attack and rush defense is better
than the Giants and that sets them up in a very good 71-32-5 fundamental
rushing situation. Final numbers (using only this years numbers) greatly
favor the Giants here by as much as ½ point and six points. The situations
cancel each other out but there is no way GB can lay this many points until
their defense shows it can play better. The Giants have been living off of
turnovers but they’re getting enough points here with a good enough offense
and a Packers defense that isn’t good enough to be laying this many points
yet. GREEN BAY 24 NY GIANTS 23

Philadelphia –9 CHICAGO 39.5

2-2-0/2-2-0 21.5-17

The theory a couple of weeks ago was that Detroit and Chicago were even,
when the Bears were installed as three point favorites over Detroit. Detroit
won that game but mostly because of fluke plays, while Chicago played pretty
well in that game (out gaining Chicago 4.9 yppl to 4.6 yppl). Last week
Philly was laying 4.5 points at Detroit and won the game easily, by
dominating Detroit 6.4 yppl to 4.1 yppl. This week they play a Chicago team
that might be better than Detroit but now laying nine points. I realize Rex
Grossman is out for Chicago but they are playing very well right now,
including running the ball well, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr. They
averaged 4.0 ypr against a good Detroit rush defense, 5.2 ypr against Green
Bay two weeks ago and 5.2 ypr against Minnesota last week. They’ve played
competitive games against Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota so far. All those
numbers should bode well against a Philly rush defense, which is allowing
5.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Going the other way, Philly’s offense is averaging
7.9 yps against 6.6 yps and that should fit well against a Bears secondary
allowing 7.6 yps against 6.9 yps. Chicago qualifies in numerous situations
in this game, which are 44-15-0 and three different fundamental rushing
situations, which are 115-55-7, 71-32-5, 534-411-33 (and subsets that are
432-306-24, 327-221-17). Final numbers favor Philly by 13 or 6.5 points,
which favor both teams. Fundamentals favor Chicago, getting plenty of points
at home to stay within the number or get the back door cover. This game also
qualifies in a 148-77-2 under situation. My final numbers only show 32
points being scored but I’ll only lean with the under because of the solid
Philly offense. PHILADELPHIA 20 CHICAGO 17

Washington –2.5 CLEVELAND 35

No Plays

Not much interest in this game. Both offenses are well below average, with
Washington gaining just 4.0 ypr against 4.6 ypr, 5.6 yps against 6.0yps, and
4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. For Cleveland, their offense is gaining 4.4ypr
against 4.3ypr, 4.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The
Washington defense is better than the Cleveland defense, allowing just
4.3yppl against 5.4yppl, while Cleveland is allowing 5.7yppl against
5.6yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a power rating situation, which plays on
teams who are due to bounce back after games, which are well below their
yearly rating, in the right situation. That situation is 130-70-11. Final
numbers greatly favor Cleveland by either seven points or three points. This
game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 80-45-2. Unfortunately,
my numbers suggest just 26 points being scored in this game, which conflicts
with the over situation. As I’ve said many times before, I trust the
situations more than the numbers, although the situations and numbers favor
Cleveland here, but I’ll also lean with the over, because of the situation.
CLEVELAND 20 WASHINGTON 16

New England –5.5 BUFFALO 34.5

5-4-1/3-7-0 19.7-15.6

Buffalo’s season has progressed along much like last year, great defense and
terrible offense. Their offense is gaining just 2.7ypr against 3.3ypr,
5.5yps against 5.9yps, 4.1yppl against 4.7yppl. They’ll face a NE defense,
which isn’t going to yield much, allowing 4.3ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.6yps
against 6.4yps, 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. That probably means the Buffalo
offense will be slightly below average in this game. On the other side,
Buffalo is allowing just 3.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.1yps against 6.1yps and
4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. That defense will face a NE offense averaging
4.3ypr against 5.1ypr, 7.7yps against 6.8yps and 6.1yppl against 6.1yppl.
Those numbers suggest the NE offense may turn in an even more below average
offense than Buffalo’s. Buffalo almost qualifies in a situation, which is
58-22-2. They don’t actually qualify in that but it’s close enough to
consider and make note of. Final numbers favor NE by either six points or
four points. I’ll favor the better defense. Final numbers also suggest about
33 points being scored. That’s right about at the total, but I’ll still lean
towards the under, despite the low total. BUFFALO 17 NEW ENGLAND 16

Oakland –2.5 HOUSTON 42

No Plays

Have to give Oakland their props with their offense this year. The running
game is above average, gaining 3.9ypr against 3.6ypr but it’s the Oakland
passing game that is making strides, averaging a whopping 7.2yps against
only 5.4yps. On offense as a whole, they are averaging 5.7yppl against
4.5yppl. That should work just fine against a Houston defense, which is
allowing 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr and especially against a poor pass defense,
which is allowing 6.7yps against 5.4yps. As a whole, Houston is allowing
5.4yppl against 4.8yppl. For Houston, their offense hasn’t been as good as
Oakland but their success comes where Oakland’s defense is at its worse.
Their rushing game is only averaging 3.4ypr against 3.8ypr but it’s the
passing game that continues to play well, averaging 7.7yps against 7.3yps.
They’ll face an Oakland defense that is allowing 6.4yps against 5.4yps and
5.0yppl against 4.5yppl. That bodes well for this game as far as the total
is concerned. Both teams can throw the ball and neither team can stop the
pass. Final numbers project about 46 points being scored, which is above the
total in this game. As for the side, Houston qualifies in similar home
momentum situations, which are 78-44-2 (including a subset which is 35-7-1)
and 158-111-10. They also qualify in a game four situation, which is 32-8-2.
For Oakland, they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is
534-411-33, including subsets, which are 432-306-24 and 327-221-17. Houston
qualifies in more situations, but the situation Oakland qualifies in is
stronger. Final numbers also favor Oakland by five and 7.5 points. I’ll lean
with Oakland here based on the stronger situation and value, but the
stronger play here is the total. OAKLAND 27 HOUSTON 24

Indianapolis –3.5 JACKSONVILLE 43

1-2-0/3-0-0 30.7-28.0

The world got to see how good Indy’s offense was last week and that’s what
they’ll remember most. But, as usual, they’ll also forget how bad their
defense is. They’ll also constantly be reminded this week how poor the
Jacksonville offense is and there is no way they can stay with that potent
Indy offense. These two teams are at about the same place they were a year
ago when they played here, in terms of yards per play. The biggest
difference here is Jacksonville is actually winning games this year, unlike
last year and they have even more experience. Jacksonville’s offense is
still below average, gaining just 4.3yppl against 4.6yppl. They’ve also
played two of the best defenses in the league this year in Buffalo and
Denver. Their offensive numbers, in terms of how far off from average they
are, are actually similar to GB. GB moved the ball at will and Jacksonville
scored 28 points here last year. I don’t see any reason they can’t do that
again. Indy is allowing 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and
6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. This is the best defense they have faced this year.
For Indy, yes, the offense has been fantastic, averaging 4.4ypr against
4.3ypr, 8.5yps against 6.3yps, 6.6yppl against 5.5yppl. But, they’ll face a
Jacksonville defense, which is allowing just 3.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.5yps
against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 4.9yppl. Looking at those numbers, that
makes these two teams almost even, with a slight edge to Indianapolis. But,
Jacksonville qualifies in similar home momentum situations, which are
78-44-2 and 158-111-10. Indy also qualifies in negative letdown situations,
which are 99-52-3 and 82-44-5. More importantly, Jacksonville also qualifies
in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 115-55-7. Along with that, the
numbers favor Jacksonville by six points and 2.5 points, giving us fantastic
value to the home underdog. There shouldn’t be any reason Jacksonville can’t
score at least 20 points at home against a poor Indy defense. If they do,
they stand an excellent chance at covering. When scoring at least 20 points,
Jacksonville is now 52-23-5. Meanwhile, Indy, during the Peyton Manning era,
is just 6-20 when allowing 20 or more points and favored by more than three
points including just 1-7 in that same situation, when on the road. As for
the total, that is hard to call. Final numbers suggest about 39 points but I
have a feeling Jacksonville will score more than suggested and Indy can
still score, even against good defenses. Home dog, plenty of value and
situations make this an obvious call. JACKSONVILLE 27 INDIANAPOLIS 23

PITTSBURGH –5 Cincinnati 38.5

6-3-1/4-6-0 15.4-18.7

I’ve been saying all year that Cincinnati might be the most overrated team
and they have done nothing to change my mind so far. The Bengal’s are 1-2
only because they were allowed to play an inept offense in Miami and they
should have lost that game. Their defense is allowing 5.7ypr against 4.2ypr,
6.1yps against 5.4yps and 5.9yppl against 4.8yppl. That doesn’t bode well
for Cincinnati when facing a Steeler’s offense, which is averaging 3.7ypr
against 3.7ypr, 6.0yps against 5.5yps and 4.8yppl against 4.7yppl. The
Steeler’s above average defense shouldn’t have any problems shutting down
the below average Bengal’s offense. Pittsburgh is allowing just 3.1ypr
against 3.9ypr, 5.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl. For
Cincinnati, they are averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.1yps against
5.5yps and 4.6yppl against 4.8yppl. Cincinnati does qualify in a solid
bounce back situation, which is 112-61-5 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a
fundamental rushing situation, which is 534-411-33, including the best
subset of that situation, which is 139-61-7 and won with Baltimore over
Cincinnati last week. Final numbers project Pittsburgh by eight points and
12.5 points. Final total projects about 43 points, which would lean towards
the over. The situation Pittsburgh qualifies in is stronger and the value
lies with them. I think this is an easy call. I don’t have enough to make
the play but Pittsburgh is the obvious choice here. PITTSBURGH 27 CINCINNATI
17

CAROLINA –3.5 Atlanta 38.5

3-4-2/2-7-0 16.8-17.7

I don’t have any situations favoring either team here so the side is a bit
of a toss up for me. Atlanta is 3-0 but I don’t think they are that good,
having defeated Arizona, an overrated Rams team and San Francisco. Carolina
has lost to Green Bay and defeated a good, but overrated Kansas City team.
What I like best here is both team’s offenses are below average and both
team’s defenses are above average. That has the makings for an under.
Atlanta is averaging just 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl and while their strength
has been the rush, averaging 5.5ypr against 4.6ypr, it will be tough for
either Vick or Warrick Dunn to gain yards on the ground against a Carolina
defense, which is allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.5ypr and 4.3yppl against
5.2yppl. On the other side, Carolina is averaging just 5.3yppl against
5.9yppl and they’ll find the going equally as tough against an Atlanta
defense, which is allowing just 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. My final numbers
suggest a one point Atlanta victory and a 2.5 point Carolina victory. But,
more importantly, the final total projected here is only 26 points, which
gives us tremendous value to the under along with the fundamentals of two
below average offenses and two above average defenses. CAROLINA 15 ATLANTA
12

New Orleans –3 ARIZONA 40

2-0-0/0-2-0 19-14.5

I have no situations that favor either side in this game. The Arizona
offense is the second worse offense in the league, second to only Miami.
Nobody really talks about how bad their offense is. They are averaging just
4.0yppl against 5.3yppl, equally as bad rushing and passing the football.
The difference is their defense isn’t anywhere close to Miami’s defense.
Arizona is allowing 5.9yppl against 5.9yppl, which makes their defense
average. For the Saints, their offense is working just fine, especially in
the passing game, where they average 6.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl
against 5.0yppl overall. On defense, NO is below average, allowing 5.7yppl
against 5.3yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass.
Whether Arizona can take advantage of that or not remains to be seen. Final
numbers favor Arizona by one point and NO by 1.5 points. That would give the
value to Arizona but I’ll still lean with the better team overall. As for
the total, final numbers suggest only 30 points being scored and this game
does qualify in a 322-238-12 under situation. I worry a little about the
Saints defense, in terms of keeping the scoring down, but the under is
probably the way to go. NEW ORLEANS 17 ARIZONA 13

NY Jets –6 MIAMI 37

6-4-0/4-6-0 19.9-24.3

Now, we get to the worse offense in the league, Miami. The Fins are
averaging just 3.5yppl against 5.1yppl this season. They average just 2.1ypr
against 4.4ypr and 4.4yps against 5.7yps. Luckily for Miami, they will face
a bad Jets defense, who is allowing 4.2ypr against 3.7ypr, 7.1yps against
5.4yps and 5.8yppl against 4.7yppl overall. The Jets defense is equally as
bad as the Cincinnati defense Miami faced two weeks ago. Miami should have
won that game and that game was on the road. Accounting for the poor Jets
defense and the poor Miami offense, Miami should operate around 0.5yppl
worse than an average offense, which is a significant improvement over what
they have done so far this season. For the Jets on offense, they have been
solid, averaging 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 8.4yps against 7.3yps and 6.5yppl
against 5.9yppl. They’ll face a very good Miami defense, which is allowing
4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.1yps against 5.3yps and 4.1yppl against 4.7yppl.
Based on those numbers, the Jets should end up with an average game on
offense for an NFL team. That gives a slight advantage to the Jets in this
game, but not enough to counter the large number they are laying on the
road. Miami qualifies in a game four situation, which is 58-22-2. Meanwhile,
the Jets qualify in a negative letdown situation, which is 82-44-5 and Miami
qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11. That situation
concludes that Miami played well below their normal power rating expectation
last week and are due to bounce back. The Jets do qualify in a fundamental
rushing situation, which is 534-411-33, including a subset, which is
432-306-24. They don’t, however, qualify in any of the better subsets. Final
numbers suggest a nine or 8.5 point Jets victory but the situations clearly
favor Miami, making this line about right. As for the total, final numbers
suggest about 40 points being scored but this game qualifies in a 51-22-5
under situation. I’ll trust the situation more than the numbers. Also,
remember our past history section. Miami usually wins these games here by
about 4.4 points, giving us plenty of value in the past history section,
which is a 56% long term play historically. I don’t have enough guts to call
for the out right upset but Miami and their defense get the cover here with
the generous line. NY JETS 18 MIAMI 16

Denver –3 TAMPA BAY 35

0-0-1/0-1-0 10-13

I don’t have any situations favoring either side or total in this game.
Interesting, however, is the TB offense, which hasn’t played well, but they
are now back to average offensively, gaining 4.5yppl against 4.5yppl and 12
points per game against teams allowing just 13 points per game. They have
obviously played some good defenses, when you see they are playing teams
allowing those types of numbers. For Denver, they are also above average
defensively, allowing just 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl and above average against
both, the run and the pass. On the other side, the Denver offense has been
above average, gaining 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl and slightly above average
with both, the run and the pass. For TB, they are allowing 4.9yppl against
5.2yppl, but 4.2ypr against 3.7ypr. Those numbers really make this game a
toss up and TB played Seattle very tough here a few weeks ago. Final numbers
make this game a pick ‘em and favor Denver by five points with a final total
around 33 points. I’ll lean slightly with a hungry TB team who can play
defense and is getting points at home. DENVER 17 TAMPA BAY 16

Tennessee –3 SAN DIEGO 41

No Plays

Tennessee appears to have taken some large steps backwards this year. Chris
Brown certainly has helped the rushing game as they average 4.9ypr against
4.0ypr but the passing game, which has usually been very strong is now very
weak. They are averaging just 4.8yps against 5.8yps, and 4.9yppl against
5.0yppl overall. They’ll face a SD defense, which has been very stout
against the rush, allowing just 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, including holding the
Broncos to their lowest rush total under the Mike Shanahan era last week.
The Chargers are allowing 8.3yps against 7.6yps this year but it remains to
be seen if Tennessee can take advantage of that. For the year, SD is
allowing 5.9yppl against 5.8yppl. On the other side, SD is averaging 3.7ypr
against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll
take on a Titans defense, which has been below average, allowing a whopping
4.6ypr against 3.5ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 4.9yppl
overall. These two teams are about equal based on the before mentioned
numbers. But, SD qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11
and suggests they are due to bounce back from a poor performance last week.
They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 115-55-7.
Final numbers favor SD by four and 3.5 points so there is plenty of value
with SD in this game. Solid situations based around contrarian and
fundamentals, along with value make this an easy play. SAN DIEGO 24
TENNESSEE 17

St Louis –3.5 SAN FRANCISCO 44

3-7-0/5-5-0 17.9-29.8

Oh, our beloved Rams. I love teams like this because they produce high
octane offenses and poor defenses, which allow us to swoop on in and take
advantage of the people who love high octane offenses with no defenses. The
Rams offense has been solid, averaging 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.8yps against
6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They’ll face a 49ers defense, which has
been very solid against the rush, allowing just 2.9ypr against 4.2ypr. The
Rams should be able to take advantage of the below average 49ers pass
defense, which allows 6.7yps against 6.4yps. Overall, the 49ers allow
4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The 49ers offense has been below average overall,
gaining just 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl, but they are averaging 4.3ypr against
3.8ypr and that should sit very well against a terrible Rams defense, which
is allowing 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 5.5yps and 6.1yppl against
5.0yppl. SF qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11. They
also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 115-55-7 and
534-411-33, including subsets, which are 432-306-24, 327-221-17 and
244-143-13. Final numbers also favor SF by two points and 1.5 points. There
is simply no reason for an over rated Rams team with a terrible defense to
be laying points on the road. This game also qualifies in a 80-45-2 over
situation and my final numbers indicate about 55 points being scored in this
game. Past history also greatly favors SF here (remember that is a long term
56% play) and past history suggests an average of almost 48 points being
scored. That past history isn’t just from the glory days of the 49ers as
they destroyed the Rams last year here, 30-10. Another easy home dog. SAN
FRANCISCO 30 ST LOUIS 24

BALTIMORE –5.5 Kansas City 41

2-1-0/2-1-0 23-17.7

Much has been made about the Chiefs and I have gone against them every week
this season with either a best bet or a strategy play from my book. But,
finally when everybody is talking about how bad they are, I’m here to say
they actually aren’t that bad. This team could easily be 2-1 and then this
line would be closer to about three points. While KC won here last year,
17-10, they didn’t necessarily deserve to win the game but they were laying
seven points and now, all of a sudden, they are getting 5.5 points, which
might be more come game time. The KC offense is actually averaging 5.1yppl
against 4.7yppl, including 5.1ypr against 4.0ypr. They’ll face a Baltimore
defense, which everyone thinks is outstanding, but numbers wise, has
actually played below average. They are allowing 4.8yppl against 4.6yppl.
The rush defense has been good, allowing just 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr. All
things equal, these numbers say KC should play at about 0.6yppl better than
an average NFL team. Going the other way, KC is allowing 29 points per game
against teams averaging just 21 points per game but they are allowing just
5.6yppl against 5.5yppl, so the defense is actually playing well. It’s just
turnovers and short fields that are killing their defense. Everybody thinks
their defense is terrible and while it isn’t great, it’s not as bad as some
people are making it sound. For Baltimore, their offense overall is below
average, gaining just 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl but the rush attack is
averaging 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr. That should help against a KC defense,
which is allowing 4.6ypr against 3.8ypr. So, while the KC defense is playing
better they are still allowing a lot of yards via the rush. What’s happening
here is teams are rushing the ball, which makes the KC defense, numbers wise
look pretty decent. But, if teams want to continue to do that, they will use
up large chunks of time and allow a team like KC to stay within the large
number. Baltimore does qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 62-29-2
but everything else belongs to KC. The Chiefs qualify in a contrary
situation, which is 112-61-5 and also a bounce back situation, which is
123-70-4 and another bounce back, which is 71-42-2 Meanwhile, Baltimore
qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is an amazing 109-46-4,
including a subset, which is 92-24-2. Final numbers contradict these
situations, suggesting Baltimore by 12 and 10 points, but, as I’ve said
before, the situations mean more than the numbers. This game also qualifies
in an over situation, which is 80-45-2 and final numbers suggest about 45
points. If this total goes to 42 or higher, the game would also qualify in
an under situation, which is 228-128-8. That probably means it’s best to
leave the total alone but I would lean towards the over. Does KC get their
first win? Maybe. KANSAS CITY 24 BALTIMORE 21


BEST BETS

YTD 14-5 +25.40%

3% CHICAGO +9
3% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
3% MIAMI +6
3% SAN DIEGO +3
3% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
3% KANSAS CITY +5.5
3% OAKLAND/HOUSTON OVER 42
3% ATLANTA/CAROLINA UNDER 38.5
3% ST LOUIS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 44

[who2beton]

Ripple
Tony George is a waste of time. Through last weekend he was 4-6 -3.8 units in the NFL including losing his 3 unit GOM.

[Ripple]

Originally posted by who2beton
Ripple
Tony George is a waste of time. Through last weekend he was 4-6 -3.8 units in the NFL including losing his 3 unit GOM.

I KNOW HE SUXS BUT SOMEONE ASKED FOR HIM ..HE DID GO 3-0 IN COLLEGE MY FRIEND BOUGHT HIS PLAYS FOR 1 WEEK ..SO FAR MY FRIEND TOLD ME HE;S 4-0 INCLUDING FRI NITE THANKS & GOODLUCK

[Ripple]

GOODFELLAS SPORTS

HE;S UP 52 UNITS FOR THE WEEK ONLY LOST 1 GAME ALL WEEK

10* OAK RAIDERS -2

HE LOVES THEM BIG

[SuperZero]

BRYAN LEONARD

FOR Y'ALL WHO LOVE BRYAN LEONARD HeRE ARE HIS HILTON CONTEST PLAYS. These are NOT pay plays, they are just the teams he picked for that contest:
GREEN BAY
CHICAGO
CAROLINA
TENN
S.F.

[mminnit1025]

football

what does lenny stevens have in store

[mminnit1025]

todays picks

what does lenny stevens have in store

[Ripple]

LARRY NESS ... JAGS

MARC LAWRENCE...HOUSTON

BIG AL... DENVER

KEN ANGLAND... CLEVELAND

[mminnit1025]

lenny stevens

i know he has a nfl underdog game of the month today

[mminnit1025]

football pick of the week

greenbay by three touchdowns

[who2beton]

PELLMAN SPORTS FOOTBALL SELECTIONS:

Top Selections (4-2-0 .800)
Top Selection on Buffalo +6
We'll all be at the game today (as usual) cheering this one on. No we didn't bet with our hearts here. We found a load of systems and trends supporting this one. Not to mention Buffalo always plays NE strong at home. Our reports show the public money is 88% on New England. We like it!

Best Bets (10-7-0 .572)
Best Bet on Pittsburgh -5
Best Bet on Miami +6.5

Opinions (10-8-0 .500)
Opinion on Tampa +3
Opinion on Jacksonville +3.5
Opinion on Houston +2

[who2beton]

The Ultimate Prediction Machine!

The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering.

NFL Week 4 , 2004
Matchup

Line
(home)

Pick

Cover %
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

-3.5

Pittsburgh

62 %
Indianapolis at Jacksonville

+4

Jacksonville

59 %
Oakland at Houston

+1.5

Oakland

54 %
New England at Buffalo

+5.5

Buffalo

54 %
Philadelphia at Chicago

+9

Chicago

57 %
Washington at Cleveland

+2.5

Cleveland

62 %
NY Giants at Green Bay

-7

NY Giants

72 %
Atlanta at Carolina

-3.5

Atlanta

57 %
New Orleans at Arizona

+3.5

Arizona

64 %
NY Jets at Miami

+5.5

Miami

52 %
Tennessee at San Diego

+3

San Diego

67 %
Denver at Tampa Bay

+3

Denver

54 %
St. Louis at San Francisco

+4

San Francisco

52 %
Kansas City at Baltimore

-4.5

Baltimore

64 %