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**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:19 PM

Take 2: Colts vs. Jaguars

TaylorThe first key for the Jaguars offense will be its ability to run the
football. In order to beat the Colts, you must limit QB Peyton Manning's
opportunities. If RBs Fred Taylor and LaBrandon Toefield don't combine for
30 carries and more than 150 yards rushing, it will be difficult for the
Jaguars to win.
The matchups are really in their favor up front. LOT Mike Pearson is not a
physical player, but he is a fine athlete who should be able to get in
position against RDE Dwight Freeney and wall him off in the running game.
The rest of the Jaguar offensive line is outstanding in terms of its
ability to consistently open up holes in the running game. Against a Colts
defense that gives up size across the board and has a consistent tendency
to wear down as games progress, the Jaguars must stay patient and
dedicated to the run.

LeftwichThe other big key is going to be QB Byron Leftwich's efficiency as
a passer. In all reality, the cover-2 defense is not a good scheme for
Leftwich to work against. It requires patient quarterbacks to check down
and make accurate throws underneath. Leftwich has the arm strength and
passing skills to find some soft spots down the sideline between the
safeties and cornerbacks in the cover-2 system, but patience and
short-accuracy are not his biggest strengths.
The Colts' secondary is hobbled and has given up tons of yards already
this season, but if Leftwich is incapable of taking what the scheme gives
him, the Jaguars offense won't have the balance that it needs to outscore
Manning & Co.
The Jaguars have had a miserable time converting on third downs
(6-for-34). Penalties have been one problem, as they have created a lot of
third-and-long situations. The other has been Leftwich's inability to
check down to his underneath receivers and take a two- or three-yard gain
instead of gambling for the big play downfield. If the Jaguars don't do a
considerably better job of converting third downs in this game, their
defense will wear out quickly against the Colts' high-powered offense. In
order to improve their odds, the Jags must do a much better job of being
patient and disciplined on first and second downs.
It will be interesting to see how patient Colts' offensive coordinator Tom
Moore is with the running game. Jaguar DTs John Henderson and Marcus
Stroud present a difficult challenge for a Colts offensive line that
sacrifices size for athletic ability and technique. The Broncos, who have
a similar offensive line scheme and philosophy, were unable to get
anything going against the Jaguars run defense because they lacked the
bulk and strength up front to get a surge.
Henderson and Stroud have become two of the best run-clogging defensive
tackles in the NFL, and their ability to take up space in the middle
allows for MLB Mike Peterson and WLB Daryl Smith to maximize their
athletic ability as sideline-to-sideline pursuit players. If the Colts
struggle to run the football early on, our best guess is they'll scrap it
and try to put the game in Manning's hands.
Building on the last point, don't look for the Colts to use as many two TE
sets as usual. Against other teams that aren't so big and strong up front
against the run and don't have the athleticism to match their linebackers
up against TEs Dallas Clark and Marcus Pollard, the Colts are able to use
their two-tight end sets to give them better blocking matchups in the
running game and better one-on-one matchups with their athletic tight ends
on slower linebackers or smaller safeties. However, since the Jaguars have
terrific size up front and athleticism with L's Peterson, Smith and Akin
Ayodele, the two TE set provides the Colts with very little advantage.

StokleyAs a result, look for Moore to use a lot more three-receiver sets
in this game to help spread the Jaguars out. Jacksonville has adequate
starters at cornerback with LDC Rashean Mathis and Dewayne Washington, but
neither can cover Indianapolis WRs Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne
one-on-one. Furthermore, by using a three-receiver set, Brandon Stokley
provides another matchup advantage against nickel DC Kiwaukee Thomas, who
has been moved up from the No. 4 cornerback role as a result of the injury
to Juran Bolden.
With mismatches across the board, the Jaguars will have to play extremely
conservative with their safeties ? Donovin Darius and Deon Grant ? in
order to prevent giving up the big play. The good news for the Jags is
they have the linebackers to cover the Colts' tight end and running back
one-on-one, and they also have the front seven to defend the run without
cheating Darius up into the box.
However, the bad news is the Jaguars don't have the front-four pass rush
to get enough pressure on Manning, which is why Manning could have another
big game throwing the ball on a lot of seven-step drops with time to make
his progression reads and step into his downfield throws from the pocket.

Special Teams

VanderjagtThe Colts have a huge advantage in the kicking game in terms of
experience and overall talent. PK Mike Vanderjagt's only miss of the
season came in the opener, and he has connected on all three field goal
attempts since. He is arguably the best place kicker in the NFL, and he
gives the Colts a big edge over Jacksonville's Josh Scobee.
Jaguars PT Chris Hanson is a reliable veteran that is averaging 43.3 yards
per punt but he isn't nearly as effective as the Colts' Hunter Smith, who
is averaging 44.4 yards per attempt and has landed three of his first nine
punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line.

LewisHowever, if there is one X-factor to monitor in the matchup of these
two special teams, it is the Jaguars' return game. Indianapolis' cover
teams, particularly on kickoffs, have been extremely inconsistent. If it
weren't for Vanderjagt making two last-second tackles, the team already
would have allowed two kickoff returns for touchdowns in just three games.

Jermaine Lewis has had an up-and-down NFL career but he has always been a
threat as a return man. He is averaging 21.8 yards per kickoff return and
11.6 yards per punt return so far this season, and he has already shown
his explosiveness on a 50-yard punt return. If Lewis can exploit the
Colts' erratic cover teams in this game, it would provide a huge boost for
the Jags' offense.

Matchups

Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison vs. Jacksonville LDC Rashean Mathis

Indianapolis ROG Tupe Peko vs. Jacksonville LDT Marcus Stroud

Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James vs. Jacksonville MLB Mike Peterson

Jacksonville WR Reggie Williams vs. Indianapolis LDC Nick Harper

Jacksonville LOT Mike Pearson vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney

Prediction: Colts 26, Jaguars 23

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:20 PM

Take 2: Raiders vs. Texans

The Texans are in a precarious situation regarding the depth in their
backfield. Backup Tony Hollings has missed the last two games with a
bruised knee and starter Domanick Davis is listed as questionable after
spraining his right ankle against the Chiefs. That leaves Jonathan Wells
as the only healthy back on Houston's active roster. The Raiders are
extremely tough against the run, so the Texans might be forced to go to
the air more than usual if Davis pulls up lame.

WoodsonThe Raiders have done a great job of capitalizing on CB Charles
Woodson's versatility. They move him around depending on the strengths of
their opponent. Woodson was moved to strong safety to take advantage of
his blitz capabilities working against a pedestrian Tampa Bay offense last
week. The move paid off, as Woodson registered a sack and forced a fumble.

Houston brings more firepower to the table, so Woodson will move back
outside to corner in an attempt to take away Houston's top offensive
threat, WR Andre Johnson. Both players are exceptional athletes, but
expect QB David Carr to get his other options more involved with Woodson
figuring to shadow Johnson from sidelineto sideline.
Houston ROG Zach Wiegert is expected to play after missing last weekend's
game against the Chiefs with a sprained right elbow. The Texans have been
unable to put their projected starting five offensive linemen on the field
at the same time over the last two games because of injuries to Weigert
and ROT Todd Wade. However, both players are expected to be available
against the Raiders, making this the first time since opening day that the
offensive line will be back to full strength.
The Texans' defense has been vulnerable to big plays and opposing
quarterbacks have taken advantage, throwing a touchdown pass one in every
eight attempts. Few teams challenge former Pro Bowl CB Aaron Glenn on the
left side, and expect the Raiders to follow suit, as they'll target rookie
CB Dunta Robinson.
Houston will roll its coverage to protect the inexperienced corner, but it
may not be enough. The emergence of WRs Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry has
given Oakland more versatility in its passing game. Oakland can use more
multiple-receiver sets and attack Robinson with a number of two-man
combination routes designed to beat zone coverage on the outside.
Houston SS Eric Brown has been ruled out for Sunday's game with the
Raiders because of a sprained ligament in his left knee. As a result, the
Texans will likely start three rookies on the defensive side of the ball
(Robinson, OLB Jason Babin and Brown's replacement, Glenn Earl.)

BabinBabin has not provided the pressure that Houston desperately needs
off the edge. While his potential remains exceptional, it seems unlikely
he'll have much success working against Oakland ROT Robert Gallery. Babin
is a hybrid DE/OLB who relies on speed to turn the corner, but Gallery is
an athlete and has more than enough quickness to mirror Babin in pass
protection. In addition, expect the Raiders to neutralize Babin's speed by
running directly at him. Gallery outweighs the Texans' rookie by 60 pounds
and he shouldn't have much of a problem exploiting that advantage in the
running game.
The Texans' run defense is currently ranked 24th in the league, but there
are no guarantees that Oakland will capitalize. Prior to the Raiders'
strong rushing performance against the Buccaneers, they were averaging
just 67 rushing yards per game and RB Tyrone Wheatley was gaining just 2.1
yards per carry.
In addition, Houston's ranking can be a bit misleading. Although they're
24th in total rushing yards allowed, the Texans rank 18th in yards allowed
per carry. With that said, Houston doesn't have the size to go toe-to-toe
with Oakland's offensive line and will have to run blitz on first and
second down in order to keep Wheatley in check.
LDE Tyler Brayton has gotten off to a great start this season and he has
blossomed playing the "Elephant End" position in Oakland's defense.
Brayton has registered 2.5 sacks and has managed to deflect three balls at
the line of scrimmage through the first three games. However, he has never
been a great run defender. As a result, expect the Raiders to help Brayton
by occasionally switching from their base 3-4 alignment to the more
conventional 4-3 alignment. DT/DE John Parrella will slide inside of
Brayton when this happens and at 300-pounds he has the size to solidify
things up front.
Raiders RILB Napoleon Harris will make his much-anticipated return to the
starting lineup on Sunday. He should only help improve an Oakland run
defense that is currently ranked sixth in the league. Harris has
tremendous range and could be one of the most dominating players at his
position with the massive Washington clogging up the middle in front of
him.

Special Teams

Houston PK Kris Brown was named the AFC special teams' player of the week
after kicking three field goals against the Chiefs, including a
game-winning, 49-yarder with two seconds left. Over the course of his
career, Brown has hit eight game-winners and is establishing himself as
one of the league's most-clutch kickers.

Matchups

Houston WR Andre Johnson vs. Oakland RCB Charles Woodson

Oakland WR Jerry Porter vs. Houston RCB Dunta Robinson

Houston OC Steve McKinney vs. Oakland NT Ted Washington

Oakland ROT Robert Gallery vs. Houston LOLB Jason Babin

Houston LOT Seth Wand vs. Oakland RDE Warren Sapp

Prediction: Raiders 23, Texans 20

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:21 PM

Take 2: Patriots vs. Bills

Buffalo has failed to get into the end zone from the 1-yard-line twice in
two games and it must do a better job of executing in the red zone. New
England will stack the line of scrimmage with eight and nine men when the
Bills get close to the goal line, making it vulnerable to play-action.
Buffalo's coaching staff wants to get TE Mark Campbell more involved and
this will be an excellent opportunity to do so. Campbell runs good routes
and has the size to shield defenders off the ball, but QB Drew Bledsoe
must be careful. Patriots LILB Tedy Bruschi does a good job of reading
opposing quarterbacks' eyes and already has one interception in the red
zone this year.
Bills RDE Aaron Schobel has the burst and athletic ability to get the
better of his matchup with New England LOT Matt Light, but Light will get
plenty of help. The Patriots excel at using their backs and tight ends to
chip defensive ends on the way into their routes. Without an explosive
pass rusher to complement Schobel and take advantage of the attention he
draws away from the rest of the defensive line, the Bills should blitz
fairly often.
New England offensive coordinator Charlie Weis will likely run some
screens in an effort to take advantage of Buffalo's aggressiveness. While
this approach is philosophically sound, Brady needs to be aware of the
Bills' corners and outside linebackers. They are capable of jumping the
screen if they read the play quickly enough and they will be difficult to
catch from behind if they intercept any passes in the flats.

DillonHow much of an impact has Patriots RB Corey Dillon made in his first
two games? The Patriots have gone three and out just once this year.
Although some of that success can be attributed to New England working
against suspect defenses, Dillon gives the Patriots balance and helps
create shorter third-down conversion attempts.
Whether he gets 15 or 30 carries, defenses have to respect his ability.
This week Dillon and New England's offensive line have the daunting task
of trying to establish an effective ground attack working against a very
stout Buffalo run defense. If they falter working against the higher level
of competition, the Bills will be able to drop their safeties off the
line, making it more difficult for Brady to throw downfield.
It's highly unlikely that Patriots WR Deion Branch is available after
injuring his leg against the Cardinals and his absence would be
significant. New England wants to spread the field with multiple-receiver
sets, forcing Buffalo to decide between playing its base 4-3 defense and
subbing in its nickel personnel. Without Branch in the lineup, the
Patriots aren't as deep or talented at receiver, so the Bills may be more
willing to keep the base 4-3 defense on the field. In addition, Buffalo
probably may not take massive run-stuffing LDT Sam Adams out of the game
nearly as often.
New England TE Ben Watson will miss the remainder of the year with a knee
injury and the Patriots have signed Jed Weaver to improve depth behind Dan
Graham and Christian Fauria. While Watson's ability to stretch the field
and work the seam will certainly be missed, the Patriots did well to sign
Weaver. Weaver, who is coming off the best season of his career, gives New
England a tenacious blocker and a reliable short-to-intermediate receiver.
However, he may not be ready to make a significant contribution until he
gets more comfortable with the offense. As a result, LOLB Mike Vrabel
could see some time at tight end. The Bills must be aware of Vrabel
because Brady will throw it to him if he's open.
As if the tension between these two AFC East Rivals wasn't enough already,
a new book called "Patriot Reign" is adding fuel to the fire. The book
includes comments made by the Patriots' coaching staff bashing former New
England players Bledsoe and SS Lawyer Milloy. One of the more interesting
comments in the book is that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick doesn't
believe that Bledsoe has the accuracy or patience to beat the cover-5
zone. Don't be surprised to see New England drop seven men into coverage
in an effort to take away the big play and force Bledsoe to throw into
tighter spaces.
New England shut the Bills out the last time they played and it has had an
extra week to prepare for a Buffalo offense that has scored a combined 23
points in its last four games. The best way to negate Belichick's wrinkles
is to simplify the offense, so expect the Bills to continue to focus on
the running game despite their inability to put points on the board.
New England has won 17 consecutive games and it needs just one more
victory tie the league record for consecutive wins, which is currently
held by five teams. The Patriots' players have been quick to say they're
not thinking about the streak. While they might not be, the Bills don't
want to be the team New England beats to get into the record books,
especially not a home.

Special Teams

With Buffalo's defense playing so well right now, field position could be
critical, and New England punter Josh Miller figures to play a big role.
Miller played extremely well in the Patriots' win over Arizona two weeks
ago, averaging 45.7 yards a punt and placing two of his three punts inside
the Cardinals' 20-yard line.
Bills PK Rian Lindell has connected on two of his three field goal
attempts thus far, but he missed a 42-yard field goal attempt in the
second quarter of Buffalo's three-point loss to Jacksonville. He needs to
take advantage of any opportunities he gets to points on the board with
the offense struggling to get into the end zone.

Matchups

New England LOG Russ Hochstein vs. Buffalo RDT Pat Williams

Buffalo LOT Mike Williams vs. New England RDE Richard Seymour

New England RB Corey Dillon vs. Buffalo WLB Takeo Spikes

Buffalo QB Drew Bledsoe vs. New England FS Eugene Wilson

Buffalo WR Lee Evans vs. New England CB Tyrone Poole

Prediction: Patriots 21, Bills 13

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:22 PM

Take 2: Eagles vs. Bears

The Eagles have yet to make a decision regarding who will take over at
fullback in place of the injured Jon Ritchie, who was lost for the season
last weekend. However, Philadelphia signed Josh Parry on Monday and there
is a good chance he will get the starting nod against the Bears. Parry, a
former practice squad player with the Eagles, has been to Philadelphia's
last four training camps. He actually holds an edge in experience over the
other fullback on the roster (rookie Thomas Tapeh). In addition, Parry
better serves the Eagles' purposes right now, as Tapeh is more of a
versatile swing back than a prototypical lead blocker.

WestbrookPhiladelphia RB Brian Westbrook averaged 6.5 yards per carry in
the Eagles' first two games, but he clearly struggled after Ritchie went
down on Sunday. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry working against the
Lions. Westbrook's diminutive size requires a powerful presence at
fullback to create lanes for him to exploit. Without it, Philadelphia's
running game won't nearly be as effective as it has been.
QB Jonathan Quinn will take QB Rex Grossman's place and make his first NFL
start since 2001. In his three career starts, all with the Jaguars, Quinn
averaged just 168 passing yards and was sacked 12 times. Look for
Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to capitalize on Quinn's
inexperience by being aggressive with his blitz package. If the Eagles'
defense can rattle him and pressure him into making some mistakes, it may
be able to provide the offense with a couple of easy scoring chances.
Quinn has a good knowledge of the Bears' scheme after spending the last
two seasons studying under offensive coordinator Terry Shea when both were
with the Kansas City Chiefs. Quinn understands how Shea wants to attack,
but knowing what needs to be done and doing it are two different tasks.
The challenge for Quinn will be to transfer that knowledge into
production.
Chicago RB Thomas Jones has 81 offensive touches so far this season, which
is good for second place in the league behind Packers RB Ahman Green (82).
Jones' heavy involvement in the Bears' game plan has been a result of
Shea's designs. However, Shea will now be forced to turn to Jones out of
necessity with Grossman lost for the season. If Chicago is to have any
chance of competing in this one, Jones needs to shoulder the load and
prove that he can do so without much support from the passing game.

ClarkBears TE Desmond Clark was extremely limited by a sprained ankle
working against the Vikings last week and he failed to catch a pass. His
return to health will be critical for Chicago, as Quinn will need a
reliable option in the middle of the field to counter the Eagles'
aggressive style of defense.
Philadelphia TE L.J. Smith is also questionable after injuring his
shoulder last weekend against the Lions. If he pulls up lame, it will have
a negative impact on the passing game as well as the running game. Smith
has improved dramatically as a blocker, and his loss coupled with that of
Ritchie would hurt.
The Philadelphia pass rush has been re-energized by the addition of RDE
Jevon Kearse, who is coming off of a three-sack performance against the
Lions. His presence has created more opportunities for the Eagles' other
defensive players and they've capitalized so far. As a team, the Eagles
lead the league with 14 sacks and they have gotten production from 11
different players other than Kearse.
MLB Mark Simoneau has been taking about 95 percent of the snaps at middle
linebacker even with the return of former Pro Bowler Jeremiah Trotter.
Although he is the smaller of the two players, Johnson is more comfortable
with Simoneau in the middle because he loves his range. The only time
Trotter has played in the first three games has been on special teams and
the goal-line package.
The addition of WR Terrell Owens has given the Eagles a legitimate
home-run threat and he has opened up the underneath routes for the team's
supporting cast. QB Donovan McNabb has done a terrific job of spreading
the ball around, and his 69.9 percent completion rating is the third best
in the league. With Owens figuring to draw most of the attention on
Sunday, look for McNabb to continue distributing the ball to all off his
weapons.
Bears RB Anthony Thomas has been used sparingly through the team's first
three games, registering just 10 carries for 30 yards and no catches. His
style doesn't fit Shea's scheme and he really hasn't had a defined role
except to give Jones an occasional breather. That could slowly start to
change now that Grossman is out. Look for Shea to get Thomas more involved
in the coming weeks as the running game will take on a much bigger role
with Quinn at the helm. In addition, Jones has had durability issues in
the past and Shea will want to avoid overworking him. The increase won't
be dramatic, but expect to see 5-10 carries from Thomas.

Special Teams

Bears PK Paul Edinger hit a funk last season, and unfortunately for
Chicago, it doesn't appear that he has climbed out of it just yet. Through
the Bears' first three games, Edinger has had six field goal attempts but
has only connected on half of them. In addition, his long is just 34 yards
and he's already had one kick blocked.

Matchups

Philadelphia WR Terrell Owens vs. Chicago CB R.W. McQuarters

Chicago ROT John Tait vs. Philadelphia LDE Jevon Kearse

Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb vs. Chicago SS Mike Green

Philadelphia ROT Jon Runyan vs. Chicago LDE Adewale Ogunleye

Chicago RB Thomas Jones vs. Philadelphia OLB Dhani Jones

Prediction: Eagles 27, Bears 14

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:23 PM

Take 2: Redskins vs. Browns

Cleveland QB Jeff Garcia spent the last five seasons playing in a
West Coast scheme predicated on quick-hitting passing plays. He is used to
taking three- and five-step drops, then releasing the ball. But the Browns
don't run the West Coast offense, and Garcia is having problems adjusting.

He is getting set up in the pocket so quickly that his receivers don't
have enough time to complete their routes. Cleveland is now trying to get
Garcia to slow his footwork down in hopes it will improve his timing with
the receivers and help get him into a rhythm.
The Browns have yet to pick up a first down on their first possession of a
game, while Washington's defense has been particularly strong on third
down. One of the biggest reasons for Cleveland's lack of success early has
been the predictability of the play calling. The Browns have been intent
on establishing their running game in an effort to take pressure off
Garcia, but defenses have been keying on the run. Don't be surprised if
offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie takes a shot downfield off play
action early. It may not result in a big play, but it will help keep the
Redskins honest and open up the running game.
Of course the pass protection will have to improve, or Garcia won't have
enough time to set his feet and look downfield. Cleveland's offensive line
had some problems picking up the blitz and line stunts last week, but it
will have the advantage of playing at home, where it will be far easier to
communicate. The Browns' backs will also play big roles, as Washington
should blitz early and often. They must attack their blocks and give
Garcia enough space to step into his throws. Garcia doesn't have the arm
strength to be effective throwing downfield when he is flat-footed.

TaylorRedskins FS Sean Taylor, who made his first start last week, can be
overaggressive and get caught out of position at times. Cleveland will
test him, but Garcia needs to be aware of Taylor's recovery speed. It
allows him to make plays on balls even when it appears he's been beaten
deep.
The Browns' receivers will need to be aware of Taylor as well. He plays
with a mean streak and is an explosive hitter who looks to punish
receivers going over the middle. Last week, Browns' WR Quincy Morgan
dropped a pass after taking a big hit. While the Giants were penalized for
unnecessary roughness on the play, Morgan will need to do a better job of
hanging on to the ball with Taylor roaming the middle of the field.
Cleveland is hopeful that DC Daylon McCutcheon returns from a broken
finger and DC Anthony Henry returns after missing last week's game with
vertigo, but they are listed as questionable. If neither is available,
second-year players Michael Lehan and Leigh Bodden will start in their
place. Their inexperience, combined with the age of the Browns' safeties,
gave Cleveland problems when it ran zone coverage last week.
Lehan and Bodden aren't doing a good enough job of using their hands to
funnel the receiver inside to FS Earl Little and SS Robert Griffith.
Little and Griffith have lost a step with age, and they no longer show
great burst to the ball while it's in the air. If Lehan and Bodden get the
start again, look for Washington's receivers to find the seam between the
corners and safeties when the Browns drop into zone coverage.

Warren
EkubanCleveland LDT Gerard Warren will miss this game with a strained
pectoral muscle, and LDE Ebenezer Ekuban is listed as questionable with a
groin pull. With RDE Courtney Brown already on injured reserve, the Browns
have very little depth along the defensive line. That's not good news with
the Redskins coming to town. Washington has finished each of its first
three games with an edge in time of possession, and it dominated Dallas in
that area last week. With the Browns' defensive line decimated by injures,
the Redskins will look to wear it down by pounding the ball between the
tackles early and often.
Poor clock management cost Washington a chance to send its game with the
Cowboys into overtime on Monday night. Head coach Joe Gibbs may still be
adjusting to a shorter play clock and when to challenge a call, but the
players need to shoulder some of the blame, as well. They must make sure
the right personnel group is on the field and get aligned correctly so the
Redskins don't have to burn a timeout. Gibbs is well known for his ability
to adjust, and he should have his players on the same page this week, so
expect Washington to use its time outs in a far more effective manner.

PortisRedskins RB Clinton Portis possesses great lateral mobility and
excels at bouncing his runs outside after starting inside. Last week, some
of Cleveland's perimeter defenders crashed inside in the hopes of clogging
up the middle when the Giants got close to the goal line. Portis will have
an excellent opportunity to get into the end zone if they don't do a
better job of maintaining their gap responsibilities in the red zone.
Keep an eye on Washington WR Laveranues Coles early. Coles has practiced
with a brace on his middle finger, which he dislocated Monday night. It's
unclear if Coles will wear the brace during the game, but it could affect
his ability to catch the ball. If he drops some passes that he should
catch, the Browns may start to roll their coverage to WR Rod Gardner's
side of the field.

Special Teams
Cleveland PK Phil Dawson has been outstanding, connecting on all seven of
his field goal attempts, including three from beyond 40 yards. As long as
the Browns' offense is sputtering, Dawson must continue to take advantage
of any opportunities he gets to put points on the board.
Washington RS Chad Morton is recovering from a concussion he sustained
against Dallas and has been hampered by a knee injury, as well. If he's
unable to play or is less than 100 percent, the Redskins will be without a
proven big-play threat in the return game.

Matchups

Cleveland QB Jeff Garcia vs. Washington FS Sean Taylor

Washington RB Clinton Portis vs. Cleveland MLB Andra Davis

Washington LOT Chris Samuels vs. Cleveland RDE Kenard Lang

Cleveland No. 3 WR Dennis Northcutt vs. Washington Nickel back Walt Harris

Cleveland ROG Kelvin Garmon vs. Washington LDT Joe Salave'a
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Prediction: Redskins 24, Browns 13

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:24 PM

Take 2: Giants vs. Packers

Giants QB Kurt Warner has way exceeded our expectations so far this
season. More importantly than anything else, he has done a terrific job of
protecting the football. With no interceptions in three starts, Warner has
kept his team in every game by allowing his defense to stay off the field
a lot more than it did a year ago. Protecting the football is going to be
a big key in Saturday's road game at Lambeau Field and it's going to be a
lot more difficult for Warner to accomplish.
Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has really tried to turn up the
heat with a much bigger emphasis on the blitz this season. The problem so
far is that the blitz isn't consistently getting to opposing quarterbacks.
As a result, the Packers have been giving up a lot of big plays because
their secondary simply isn't good enough to hold up in coverage that long
without a lot of help from linebackers in the underneath zone.
The team is without a solid starting left cornerback and has gotten
inconsistent play from SS Mark Roman in coverage. The good news this week,
however, is that the blitz should be a lot more effective against the
inexperienced Giants' offensive line. The last time the Giants' offensive
line saw this type of blitz-happy scheme was in Week 1, when the Eagles
sacked Warner twice and were constantly in his face.
Teams have had success spreading the Packers out with multiple-receiver
sets that expose their lack of depth at cornerback. With the injuries to
CBs Mike McKenzie and rookie Ahmad Carroll, the Packers have been stuck
using Al Harris, Michael Hawthorne and rookie Joey Thomas and Jason Horton
as their four cornerbacks in the dime package.
Unfortunately for the Giants, they simply lack depth at wide receiver to
create the type of mismatches that the Colts were able to generate last
week with Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley in their
three-receiver sets. The Giants will try to "flex" out TE Jeremy Shockey
in more of an H-back/slot receiver role, but the Packers also have an
advantage their because of FS Darren Sharper, who is one of the few
safeties in the NFL that can match up well one-on-one versus Shockey.

BarberThe Giants' best chance of staying in this game is a strong interior
running attack. RB Tiki Barber is an undersized back but he runs hard and
is a productive between-the-tackles runner thanks to his terrific vision
and quick cutting ability. The Giants will have a lot of trouble with the
Packers' blitz-package, but the one area of the trenches matchup that they
have an edge in is the interior running game.
With NTs Grady Jackson (knee) and James Lee (knee) both out, the Packers
are stuck starting Cullen Jenkins at the nose tackle position. While
Jenkins is quick and will get some penetration from time to time, he
doesn't have the size, strength or gap-clogging ability the Jackson or
even Lee provide this defense when healthy. As a result, MLB Nick Barnett
has been forced to sift through too much traffic and is making too many
tackles two and three years behind the line of scrimmage.
If the Giants come out with the mindset that they won't to bunch it up and
run right at the heart of the Packers' defense behind OC Shaun O'Hara and
OGs Chris Snee and Jason Whittle, they will at least be able to slow down
the clock, limit QB Brett Favre's attempts on offense, and maybe have a
chance to steal a win in the fourth quarter.
After watching film of the Giants' defensive line in its past couple of
games, we've been surprised how well it is holding up versus the run. DT
Norman Hand has been playing with much more consistency. He is staying low
to the ground and really making it difficult for offensive linemen to get
into his body. LDE Michael Strahan is always tough versus the run, and DT
Fred Robbins is even causing more disruption than usual. The unit is also
getting a boost from second-year pro William Joseph, who was a bust as a
rookie but has bounced back well after a summer pectoral muscle pull that
cost him significant practice time.
With all that said, however, the Giants' defensive line will be in for one
of its toughest challenges of the season against a Packer offensive line
that is playing up to its potential despite the rest of the team
struggling to do the same. Don't expect either of the Packers' guards
(Mike Wahle or Marco Rivera) to need double-team help on the inside or for
their tackles (Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton) to need double-team help on
the perimeter.

FlanaganAs a result, look for OC Mike Flanagan to play a big role in the
success of the Packers' running game. With Flanagan and possibly FB
William Henderson working to get bodies on MLB Keith Lewis and WLB Barrett
Green on most running plays, expect RB Ahman Green to carry a good load of
the offensive production and also to bounce a lot of plays to the outside
for big gainers thanks to the second level blockers that he'll be working
off of.
Early on in the game look for the Packers to play it very close to the
vest. They know they have the matchups they want in order to successfully
wear the Giants down in the running game. They also know that the Giants
have the depth at cornerback to match up against their multiple-receiver
sets. Instead of forcing the issue, look for the Packers to use a lot of
two- and three-tight end sets and to get OT Kevin Barry involved as an
extra blocker at the tight end position. By running right at the Giants
for most of the first half, the Packers will be working to wear down their
front seven to eventually set up the play-action.
The Giants will frequently cheat rookie SS Gibril Wilson up near the line
of scrimmage on obvious running downs in order to create an eight-man
front. When they start to do that in the second half, that's when Favre
will take some chances downfield. CBs Will Allen and William Peterson both
have the speed to turn and run with the Packers' receivers (Donald Driver,
Javon Walker and Robert Ferguson), but they also have historically been
inconsistent cover corners who will get caught peeking in the backfield
from time to time. After the Packers firmly establish the run, look for
them to use the deep ball off of play-action in the second half.
The other thing to look for from the Packers in this game is the screen
pass. Green Bay has done a terrific job of using the screen to neutralize
the blitz. If the Packers start to find the Giants being overaggressive
with the blitz on some obvious passing downs early in the game in order to
get more pressure on Favre, that's when they'll counter with a screen.
They have had their most success screening to Green, but they also will
get their fullbacks, tight ends and even wide receivers involved in the
screen pass.

Special Teams

Neither team has been great in the kicking game. Green Bay PK Ryan
Longwell has missed two of his first five field goal attempts, and Giants
PK Steve Christie has missed two of his first seven. Christie has hit from
beyond 50 yards this season, but Longwell has the more consistent deep
leg.
There isn't much of a difference in the punting game, either, as both
teams' punters ? Jeff Feagles (Giants) and Bryan Barker (Packers) ? are
off to poor starts with averages less than 40 yards per attempt but are
consistent, accurate and reliable veterans who make up for their lack of
leg strength with good directional punting.
The only real advantage that Green Bay has is in the return game, where RS
Antonio Chatman gets the edge over Giants PR Mark Jones and KOR Willie
Ponder. Chatman, who is averaging 26.8 yards per KOR with a long of 50 and
just less than 10 yards per punt return, is by no means an elite return
specialist, but he has been more consistent and has shown more
explosiveness.

Matchups

Green Bay WR Javon Walker vs. N.Y. Giants RCB Will Peterson

Green Bay ROT Mark Tauscher vs. N.Y. Giants LDE Michael Strahan

Green Bay RB Ahman Green vs. N.Y. Giants MLB Kevin Lewis

N.Y. Giants WR Ike Hilliard vs. Green Bay LCB Michael Hawthorne

N.Y. Giants TE Jeremy Shockey vs. Green Bay FS Darren Sharper

Prediction: Giants 29, Packers 16

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:25 PM

Take 2: Falcons vs. Panthers

After Atlanta QB Michael Vick rushed for 141 yards in his first game back
from injury last season, the Panthers' biggest challenge this week is to
come up with a game plan to better contain him. There have been two
methods that have had success and we expect the Panthers to incorporate a
little bit of both.
The first is to use a two-gap pass rush with a traditional four-man front.
In this scheme the Panthers, who like to turn their explosive athletes
along their front four loose as pass rushers, will have to adjust their
philosophy greatly. Instead of focusing on getting to the quarterback as
upfield penetrating players, the Panther defensive linemen will be
required to take up space in the middle. The goal is to take away the
running lanes for Vick and force the inconsistent passer to make throws
from inside the pocket, where he is least dangerous.
The other method the Panthers defense could use is a five-man defensive
line with the defensive ends playing outside contain and the three
interior defensive linemen responsible for clogging up the A, B, and C
gaps. The Cardinals had a couple of breakdowns that led to big runs last
week but after watching the film they really had a good scheme in place.
With better personnel like the Panthers have, this scheme should be
successful.

FieldsIf the Panthers try to use a five-man front, we could see SLB Mark
Fields moving up to a DE position with DE Mike Rucker moving inside, or we
could see Al Wallace coming in as a third defensive tackle with Brentson
Buckner playing the nose tackle position.
Either way, the goal is to take away running lanes that Vick so
consistently exploits when teams try to pressure him with one-gap
penetration. As it stands right now, Vick is much less productive when
limited to the pocket as a passer than he is when given the freedom to
take off and run, which forces defenses to defend the run-pass option
against the NFL's most electric athlete. If Carolina can successfully
execute these types of disciplined schemes on Sunday it will give the team
its best chance to win.
After really struggling to contain Vick last season, the Panthers should
do a much better job this season. The aforementioned schemes are a couple
of reasons why. There are some other intangibles to consider, though.
First, the Falcons didn't have speedy linebackers Fields and Dan Morgan in
last year's meeting versus Vick. Their athletic ability will certainly
help to cut down on Vick's big plays.
Secondly, the Panthers have had a bye week to get extra preparation for
the game, which should allow them to better execute the aforementioned
schemes. Finally, the Panthers have an athletic left-handed quarterback in
Rod Rutherford, who has been giving the defense a great look for two weeks
in practice leading up to Sunday's game.
RB Warrick Dunn has averaged 4.2 yards per carry this season and he is
doing a fine job of keeping the offense balanced, but because of the
attention that Vick will get with a lot of eight-man fronts and
disciplined two-gap schemes, establishing a running game will be extremely
difficult for the Falcons.
Whether the team is in a 4-4 look with SS Mike Minter walked up over the
head of TE Alge Crumpler, or a 5-3 look with five defensive linemen and
Minter as the third linebacker, the Panthers will typically have more men
in "the box" than the Falcons can block.
If Atlanta is going to out-score the Panthers in this game they must be
efficient in the passing game. If Vick is going to be contained a lot
better this time around, the Panthers must do two things: Give up a lot of
their pass-rush pressure because of the two-gap schemes they will be using
up front, and use alot of man-to-man or cover-3 situations in the
secondary because of Minter being cheated up closer to the line.

WhiteThe good news for the Falcons is that Vick has the arm and WRs Dez
White and Peerless Price have the speed to get over the top of DBs Ricky
Manning and rookie Chris Gamble. The bad news, however, is that Vick has
been extremely inconsistent throwing the deep ball this season and the
Falcons also lack depth at receiver to spread the Panthers out as much as
they would like.
With Brian Finneran still bothered by an Achilles' injury and Michael
Jenkins failing to live up to expectations, don't expect to see many
three-receiver sets out of the Falcons in this game, which is a crime
because the Panther defense is most susceptible to multi-receiver sets.
Carolina RB Stephen Davis, who rushed for 153 yards in the Panthers' win
at home against the Falcons last season, will be missed. However, DeShaun
Foster, who rushed for 174 yards against the Chiefs in the team's last
game before its bye week, has proven time and time again that he's capable
of handling a full load.
The Panthers must be able to run the football in order to win this game.
They no longer have the deep threat at wide receiver in Steve Smith and
they can't afford to have a lot of three-and-outs in this game, which
would give Vick more chances to wear down the Panther defense.
Foster has had some fumbling problems in the past but he has not fumbled
yet this season. If he can protect the football and churn out yards
against a Falcons' run defense that is overrated because of the
competition it has played so far this season, the Panthers should be able
to win this game with their usual formula for success of controlling the
clock, winning the field position battle and execution on special teams.
It will be interesting to see if the Panthers are able to capitalize on
the "soft" play of the Falcons' cornerbacks, Jason Webster and Kevin
Mathis. Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has really been turning up the
heat with a lot of blitzing of his linebackers -- and occasionally
safeties -- this season. But because of the lack of speed and size that he
has at cornerback the team is using a lot of "soft" zone coverage behind
the blitz.
The goal is to force the opposing quarterback to make quick throws and for
the secondary to wrap up immediately after the catch. The Falcons have
gotten away with this bend-but-don't-break style in their first three
games because opponents have turned the ball over eight times, but the
Panthers are excellent when it comes to protecting the football.
With fine possession receivers like Muhammad and rookie Keary Colbert, and
a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who does a great job in terms of
recognizing and beating the blitz with accurate throws, the Panthers can
beat the Falcons' coverage scheme.

Special Teams

There isn't a big difference between these two special teams' units, but
the Panthers would have to get a slight edge because they have better
experience in the kicking game. Carolina PK John Kasay has not actually
attempted a field goal this season but he is a reliable veteran with
adequate range. PT Todd Sauerbrun is one of the best in the business and
is off to another strong start with an average of 41.5 yards per attempt
with five of his 11 attempts landing inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
In a game that shapes up as a battle of field position, Sauerbrun gives
the Panthers a slight edge over Atlanta PT Chris Mohr.
There isn't a huge difference in the return game, either. The Falcons are
solid with Allen Rossum handling both kickoffs (20 yards per return) and
punts (10.3 yards per return). The Panthers have less experience with Rod
Smart handling kickoffs but Smart has shown more explosiveness so far this
season with an average of 27 yards per return. Veteran Eugene Baker is
averaging just six yards per punt return. He is reliable but lacks
home-run hitting ability.

Matchups

Atlanta TE Algie Crumpler vs. Carolina SS Mike Minter

Atlanta ROT Todd Weiner vs. Carolina LDE Julius Peppers

Atlanta LOG Roberto Garza vs. Carolina LDT Kris Jenkins

Carolina WR Muhsin Muhammad vs. Atlanta RDC Jason Webster

Carolina ROT Matt Willig vs. Atlanta LDE Patrick Kerney

Prediction: Panthers 17, Falcons 13

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:26 PM

Take 2: Saints vs. Cardinals

It may surprise some that Arizona QB Josh McCown has completed at least 60
percent of his passes in four of his last five starts, including a
20-for-26 effort against the Falcons last week. However, the Arizona
offense has been unable to get into any sort of a rhythm because of
McCown's inability to protect the football and his propensity to take
sacks. McCown was benched last week for fumbling three times in the red
zone. He will have to avoid making those types of mistakes if the
Cardinals are to win this game.
In addition, although the offensive line certainly deserves its fair share
of the blame for the 13 sacks the Cardinals have allowed this year,
McCown's inexperience hasn't helped. He has yet to develop good pocket
presence and holds onto the ball too long at times. McCown has the
physical tools to be successful in this league but the Arizona offense
will continue to struggle until he learns to manage the game better.
McCown can help himself by distributing the ball more effectively. With
Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin out, McCown has made rookie Larry Fitzgerald his
primary target almost to a fault. WRs Bryant Johnson, Nate Poole and Karl
Williams, along with RB Josh Scobey and TE Freddie Jones, have all got to
become more involved. Part of the problem has been the skill players not
consistently getting open, but McCown must improve his ability to see the
field. The Saints' secondary is loaded with veteran players who will jump
routes if he continues to lock on to Fitzgerald.

ThomasJones is probably Arizona's best option in the passing game this
week, as the Saints will likely load the box with some eight-man fronts.
With most of the attention being focused on RB Emmitt Smith and stopping
the run, Jones could potentially slip behind the linebackers off of
play-action. He has the speed to provide Arizona's offense with a couple
of big plays.
Smith has played well at times, but the Cardinals' offensive line has not
played well enough for him to make a consistent impact. Things don't
figure to change much for Smith working against a talented New Orleans'
front four that should control the line of scrimmage. LDT Johnathan
Sullivan is coming into his own in his second season and his presence
inside has allowed rookie MLB Courtney Watson to attack downhill. In
addition, the Saints can bring SS Jay Bellamy into the box without being
at a disadvantage in coverage because the Cardinals lack speed on the
perimeter.
The Cardinals have to be excited about the impact two of their rookies
have made on defense. ROLB Karlos Dansby is coming off of his first career
start and he played remarkably well in place of the injured LeVar Woods,
registering four tackles and a sack. Dansby has great speed and might be
Arizona's most athletic defender. UT Darnell Dockett has also been
improving while filling in at the "under tackle" position for the
suspended Wendell Bryant. Dockett is slightly undersized but he relies on
quickness to mask his lack of ideal power and has quietly developed into a
playmaker. Through three games, Dockett has been a disruptive presence in
the middle, forcing two fumbles and recording five tackles behind the line
of scrimmage.
Arizona DT Ross Kolodziej will miss two-to-three weeks after spraining his
ankle against the Falcons. With Bryant still serving a four-game
suspension, Arizona will come into this game with three healthy defensive
tackles. Without much of a rotation, Dockett and NT Russell Davis will
fatigue as the game wears on. New Orleans has a talented interior
offensive line led by OC LeCharles Bentley. Although the Saints are
without RB Deuce McAllister, the running game should still have enough
success to take some pressure off of QB Aaron Brooks.

BrooksAfter three games, Brooks has compiled a passer rating of 93.5 and
ranks ninth in the NFL with the highest rating of his six-year career. He
also ranks among the league leaders in passing yards (818), touchdown
passes (five) and completion percentage (59.8). The usually inconsistent
Brooks has been extremely impressive, making all the right decisions and
playing with confidence. In fact, he has thrown only one interception in
his last 344 pass attempts dating back to last year. He'll need to
continue those trends working against a Cardinals defense that has been
much improved under coordinator Clancy Pendergast.
Pendergast wants to protect his corners working against WRs Joe Horn and
Donte' Stallworth, so expect to see a lot of cover-2 from Arizona. The
zone concept will allow CBs Duane Starks and David Macklin to play
aggressively without having to worry about getting beat over the top. FS
Quentin Harris and SS Adrian Wilson will be charged with defending the
deep halves and both have adequate range. The Saints will likely counter
by getting TE Boo Williams involved in the passing game. Williams has the
speed to stretch the seam and can exploit this coverage by splitting the
safeties on a skinny post or by simply settling into the deep hole on a
curl route.
Through the first three games, the Cardinals' defense has forced 10
turnovers but the offense has only managed to score nine points on the
ensuing 10 drives. Until a playmaker arises and provides this offense with
a spark, the Cardinals will continue to squander these opportunities.

Special Teams

Arizona P Scott Player has one of the strongest legs in the conference and
can kick the Cardinals' offense out of trouble. However, the punt coverage
unit has struggled thus far, allowing two returns of over 20 yards.
Arizona isn't a good enough football team to overcome special teams'
mistakes and this group will need to improve quickly. Saints RS Michael
Lewis is extremely dangerous in the open field and is currently averaging
11.3 yards per attempt.

Matchups

New Orleans WR Joe Horn vs. Arizona LCB Duane Starks

Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. New Orleans RCB Fred Thomas

New Orleans OC LeCharles Bentley vs. Arizona NT Russell Davis

Arizona TE Freddie Jones vs. New Orleans SS Jay Bellamy

New Orleans TE Boo Williams vs. Arizona SS Adrian Wilson

Prediction: Saints 26, Cardinals 17

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:27 PM

Take 2: Jets vs. Dolphins

The loss of LDE Adewale Ogunleye (Bears via trade) and the injuries to DTs
Larry Chester (IR, knee) and Tim Bowens (questionable, back) have changed
the entire landscape of Miami's defense. What once was a unit that could
clog gaps and protect MLB Zach Thomas and WLB Junior Seau is no longer.
DTs Jeff Zgonina and Bryan Robinson have filled in admirably, but they
don't have the size and strength to play the two-gap scheme like Chester
and Bowens did when healthy. Furthermore, the injuries and trade really
hurt depth, which explains why the film shows this unit wearing down late
in games.

MartinWith that in mind, look for the Jets to head to Miami with the idea
of establishing the run right away. RB Curtis Martin has looked sharp so
far. He ran the ball 61 times in the first two games and, while we
shouldn't expect to see that type of consistent load being dumped on his
shoulders throughout the season, the Jets are coming off of a bye week and
might go right back to the well with Martin's rested and fresh legs.
The bad news for the Dolphins is that they likely will have to
overcompensate on most first and second downs by cheating SS Sammy Knight
up into the box. The good news, however, is that Knight has the savvy and
athletic ability to match up one-on-one versus Jets TE Anthony Becht,
which means the Dolphins won't be at a disadvantage down the middle in the
passing game as a result of their eight-man fronts. Furthermore, the
Dolphins don't need all four defensive backs to match up against Jets WRs
Santana Moss and Justin McCareins. Surtain still has the athleticism and
speed to play Moss on an island.
The same might not be true for Madison on the other side, but the Dolphins
can play it two different ways. On some downs they can simply allow
Madison to play off the line of scrimmage and give the faster McCareins a
cushion, while on other downs they can let Madison get in McCareins' face
but roll FS Antuan Edwards over to Madison's side to give him deep help
should he fail to smother McCareins at the line of scrimmage. Either way,
the Dolphins have the personnel to defend the Jets on the perimeter and
vertically in the passing game.

SowellIn order to supplement what they might not get from Moss and
McCareins, look for the Jets to get their backs involved in the passing
game quickly. Martin is a weapon on screen and flair routes, and FB Jerald
Sowell is one of the most reliable and productive fullbacks in the NFL
when it comes to catching the football out of the backfield.
Because the Jets don't have the depth at wide receiver to spread the
Dolphins out, look for them to use a lot of two-back sets with Martin and
Sowell in the backfield at the same time. Sowell can help the Jets
establish a strong running game because of his ability to reach the second
level and get a body on "space" linebackers like Thomas and Seau.
If the Jets can establish the type of running attack we expect them to
early on, Sowell can help to exploit the Dolphins for their
overzealousness in run support. The Dolphins are extremely active versus
the run but sometimes that same "fly to the football" mentality leads to
them taking false steps versus the play-action.
That won't necessarily lead to big plays in the vertical passing game
because of the matchups on the perimeter that we just spoke about, but it
could lead to a lot of underneath routes opening up in the zones vacated
by the over-extended linebackers. QB Chad Pennington has become famous for
his ability to sell the fake, get outside the pocket on rollouts and
bootlegs, and make accurate throws to his backs and tight ends on the run.
This is one area that Sowell's versatility will really benefit the Jets in
this game.
The Dolphins would really like to target rookie MLB Jonathan Vilma, who
will be starting his first NFL game in place of the injured Sam Cowart.
The problem, however, is that their running game is a mess right now. RB
Lamar Gordon, who was beginning to show promising signs as the Dolphins'
starter, left last week's game with an injured shoulder and is out for the
season. Travis Minor (ankle) is out and Sammy Morris, who has been limited
all week during practice because of an ankle injury, is doubtful to play.

HenryThat leaves the team with Leonard Henry as the starter and newly
signed Brock Forsey will back him up. Henry, a seventh-round selection in
2002, has adequate size and runs hard, but he lacks burst and "wiggle" to
run away from defenders, and he also lacks great skills as a receiver out
of the backfield. Forsey is tough and catches the ball well but has no
breakaway speed whatsoever.
As bad as things are at the running back position, the overriding problem
for the Dolphin offense is the poor play of its offensive line. With so
many new faces at new positions, there is a complete lack of communication
and confidence in one another. The unit makes numerous assignment errors
and its lack of overall athleticism is glaring. Damion McIntosh will give
the unit more size and strength at left tackle as he fills in for the
ineffective Wade Smith, but the team gives up athleticism in that switch.
Against a speed rusher like RDE/ROLB John Abraham, McIntosh's lack of
quickness, athletic ability and lateral movement could get exposed. In
fact, the rest of the matchups in the trenches are not favorable for the
Dolphins, as ROT John St. Clair will be overmatched by the all-around
skills of LDE Shaun Ellis and ROG Taylor Whitley, who is learning on the
job and will struggle with the emerging Dewayne Robertson. In certain
situations, the Dolphins would probably like to double team all three of
the aforementioned defenders. Unfortunately, that's not possible, which
means the Jets should consistently control the trenches in this matchup.
The only way the Dolphins can stay in this game is if they utilize the
speed of their wide receivers – Chris Chambers and Marty Booker – against
the Jets' cornerbacks – Donnie Abraham and David Barrett. The Jets play a
heavy mix of cover-2 and man-to-man coverage. Veteran QB Jay Fiedler
should be able to recognize the difference, which gives the Dolphins a
chance to work the perimeter in the passing game. Fiedler also has the
athletic ability to avoid the rush a lot better than A.J. Feeley did in
the last two games.
If Fiedler recognizes man coverage, he needs to take some chances with his
vertical receivers downfield because they both have the speed to get over
the top of Abraham and Barrett. If Fiedler recognizes cover-2, he needs to
be on the same page as his receivers and do a good job of getting rid of
the ball quickly and getting it into his receivers' hands in space on the
run. The two factors that could really hurt the Dolphins in this facet of
the game are Fiedler's history of throwing an inconsistent deep ball and
the fact that Chambers will be playing at less than 100 percent because of
a knee injury. If Chambers can't stretch the field and/or if Fiedler
doesn't do a better job of exploiting the favorable matchups in the
vertical passing game, the Dolphins will be out of options on offense.

Special Teams

Miami has better personnel in the kicking department, but the Jets are
more explosive and solid in the return game and more consistent in
coverage. PK Olindo Mare is still one of the upper-echelon field goal
kickers in the NFL and has hit on three of his first four attempts. He
isn't as accurate inside 40 yards as Jets PK Doug Brien, but Mare has a
much stronger leg.
Punter Matt Turk, on the other hand, doesn't have the strongest leg but he
has very good directional skills and overall consistency. There really
isn't much difference between Turk and Jets punter Toby Gowin, who is
averaging 41 yards per punt and has landed two of seven inside the
opponents' 20-yard line.
The real difference is in the return game, where the Dolphins are
relegated to using rookie RS Wesley Welker in place of Lamont Brightful,
who was recently cut. Welker has been solid so far but a rookie return
specialist always creates uneasiness. On the other side, the Jets really
have a lot of potential in the return game, as Moss is returning punts and
Lamont Jordan recently was handed over the full-time kickoff return job.

Matchups

N.Y. Jets WR Santana Moss vs. Miami LCB Patrick Surtain

N.Y. Jets LOT Jason Fabini vs. Miami RDE Jason Taylor

Miami TE Randy McMichael vs. N.Y. Jets SS Reggie Tongue

Miami ROT John St. Clair vs. N.Y. Jets LDE Shaun Ellis

Miami WR Marty Booker vs. RCB David Barrett

Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 16

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:28 PM

Take 2: Titans vs. Chargers

BulluckTennessee's young defensive ends are struggling to mount a
consistent pass rush and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will blitz at
times as a result. However, Schwartz has also used a three-man front and
then rushed ROLB Keith Bulluck off the edge at times. While Bulluck
generally ends up lined up over the offensive tackle, he rushes from a
two-point stance and is extremely active. His moving around just before
the snap will keep San Diego's offensive line off balance and make it
difficult for the Chargers to adjust their protection to account for him.
Another way Schwartz will look to give the pass rush a boost is to
continue to run line stunts with DTs Kevin Carter and Albert Haynesworth.
Rookie OC Nick Hardwick has done an admirable job of stepping into the
starting lineup because of Jason Ball's contract holdout, but he is raw.
In addition, Ball, who San Diego isn't expected to activate until next
week, would be rusty if he was inserted into the starting lineup. If
Hardwick gets caught committing to either Carter or Haynesworth when the
Titans stunt, he won't be in position to pick up the stunting defensive
lineman.
The Titans had some problems defending the perimeter last week and it
allowed Jacksonville RB Fred Taylor to break some long runs to the
outside. One of the reasons Taylor had success was the inability of the
Tennessee perimeter defenders to funnel him back inside. Too many players
got caught turning their shoulders in an effort to avoid blocks, which
created quality cutback lanes. Although Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson
has been slowed by a toe injury, he has good vision and runs with
excellent power. The Titans need to do a better job of squaring up or
Tomlinson will find the seam and run through any arm tackles.
Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher hasn't ruled QB Steve McNair out yet and
said that it will be a game-time decision. Fisher doesn't want to risk
dropping to 1-3, and a healthy McNair under center gives the Titans their
best chance to win this game, but we still expect backup Billy Volek to
start. Although McNair's rib injury doesn't really affect his ability to
throw, it does affect his ability to breath and he wouldn't be as
effective running the ball.

BrownThe Titans will spread the field with three-receiver sets, release
those receivers downfield and then get the ball to RB Chris Brown on a
screen pass. With the receivers stretching the field and the defensive
line flying upfield when it reads pass, Brown has a pocket he can settle
into and he is capable of turning the short gain into the big play. San
Diego's defensive linemen will want to be aggressive getting upfield but
they must be aware of the screen and get their hands up in the passing
windows when they aren't going to get to the quarterback.
This may not be the week that San Diego backup QB Philip Rivers supplants
Drew Brees after all. While Brees needs to have a strong game to prevent
Rivers from overtaking him, Rivers injured his index finger on his
throwing hand Wednesday. While he returned to practice on Thursday and is
listed as probable, San Diego may decide to keep its first-round pick and
possibly future at quarterback out.
Keep an eye on the matchup between Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal and Titans MLB
Rocky Boiman, who could miss this game with a back injury, or Brad
Kassell. Neal, who is a former Titan, is extremely physical and has the
lower body strength to root both Boiman and Kassell out of the hole.

Special Teams

Tennessee's kickoff return unit is ranked dead last in average yards per
return and that isn't likely to change with FB Troy Fleming dropping back
to return kickoffs once again this week. If San Diego is to win this game,
it has to win the battle of field position. As a result, it must take
advantage of this weakness and force the Titans to sustain longer drives.
San Diego KOR Tim Dwight could miss this game with a toe injury and he
would be sorely missed. Dwight is explosive in the open field and always a
threat to make something happen when he gets his hands on the ball.

Matchups

San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Tennessee SS Tank Williams

San Diego ROG Mike Goff vs. Tennessee LDT Kevin Carter

Tennessee RB Chris Brown vs. San Diego ILB Randall Godfrey

Tennessee OC Justin Hartwig vs. San Diego NT Jamal Williams

San Diego WR Reche Caldwell vs. Tennessee CB Samari Rolle

Prediction: Titans 24, Chargers 14

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:29 PM

Take 2: Broncos vs. Buccaneers

Denver QB Jake Plummer appears far more comfortable with the offense in
his second season with the Broncos and his decision-making has been
much-improved. He hasn't thrown an interception in his last two games
despite throwing 75 passes during that span.
Tampa Bay's offense is struggling to move the ball with any consistency
and Denver doesn't want to let it off the hook by giving the Buccaneers
quality field position. Plummer needs to continue to take what the defense
gives him and move the offense efficiently as a result.
There's no question that Broncos RB Quentin Griffin has struggled over the
past two games and he needs to do a better job of holding onto the
football. However, it's important to note that he faced a strong
Jacksonville defense that is giving up just 3.3 yards a carry and a San
Diego defense that keyed on stopping the run. The Chargers often crowded
the line of scrimmage with eight men and ran a lot of lines stunts inside
last week.
Tampa Bay's run defense has given up a run of 60 yards or longer in two of
its first three games. Griffin has the burst and elusiveness to take
advantage of any breakdowns in the Buccaneers' run defense so he could
bounce back with a strong game.

GriffinTampa Bay isn't having as much success getting to the quarterback
with its front four and that shouldn't change with Denver frequently
moving Plummer out of the pocket. The Buccaneers will have to blitz at
times and the additional pressure will force defensive coordinator Monte
Kiffin to play more man coverage on the outside.
DBs Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are far better-suited for the Buccaneers'
cover-2 scheme. Barber lacks the size as well as the speed to run with
receivers downfield and Kelly will get caught gambling in an effort to
make the big play. If the blitz doesn't get to Plummer quickly, Tampa Bay
will be in trouble because Plummer is doing a good job of exploiting
single-coverage opportunities right now.
The Broncos have allowed just three points combined in the fourth quarter
of their first three games while the Buccaneers have struggled to get
anything going in the first half. If Tampa Bay's offense gets off to
another slow start, Denver's defense should be well-rested late making it
unlikely the Buccaneers mount a comeback should they fall behind.
One of the reasons Tampa Bay's passing game has sputtered might be the
lack of chemistry between QB Brad Johnson and his receivers. Bill
Schroeder didn't sign with the Buccaneers until mid-July, Tim Brown didn't
sign with them until mid-August and Michael Clayton is a rookie.
The unfamiliarity has helped prevent Johnson from getting into a rhythm
and resulted in incomplete passes as well as stalled drives. As the
receivers get more comfortable with Johnson and vice versa the passing
game should improve. The problem is it won't happen over night and the
Tampa Bay receivers should struggle working against a talented Broncos'
secondary.

GoldAlthough the attention that Denver SS John Lynch's return to Tampa Bay
receiving is well-deserved, there will be another player on the field that
wants to play well against his former team. Ian Gold spent the first four
seasons with the Broncos before he signed with the Buccaneers during the
off-season.
Denver failed to re-sign Gold who missed most of last year with a knee
injury. Gold, who has impressed Tampa Bay's coaching staff with his range
and high-motor, wants to show the Broncos they made a mistake by not
keeping him.
There is an outside chance that Buccaneers backup Chris Simms replaces
Johnson during this game. While Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden
understands a quarterback controversy could add to his problems, he also
knows that his offense needs a spark. That said, Simms' play shouldn't
have any impact on this game, as he will only see action if the Buccaneers
fall behind.
Denver traded an undisclosed draft pick to Atlanta to acquire LDT Ellis
Johnson last week. Johnson, who has recorded 15 sacks over the past two
seasons, should give the Broncos' pass rush a boost but it probably won't
be this week. Denver still has another week to activate Johnson and it
should have success getting to QB Brad Johnson without him in the lineup
so there's no reason to play LDT Johnson.

Special Teams

Denver FB Reuben Droughns leads the NFL in average yards per kickoff
return. His longest return has gone for 48 yards. Droughns makes up for
his lack of breakaway speed by wasting little-to-no motion, reading his
blocks well and breaking the occasional tackle. He should be productive
working against a Tampa Bay kickoff cover unit that has appeared
vulnerable at times.
Clayton should get an opportunity to field some punts this week but Brown
will continue to return punts when the Buccaneers could get pinned deep.
While Tampa Bay likes Clayton's big-play potential, Brown is far more
experienced and he shouldn't make any mistakes near Tampa Bay's goal line.

Matchups

Denver RB Quentin Griffin vs. Tampa Bay MLB Shelton Quarles

Denver LOT Matt Lepsis vs. Tampa Bay RDE Simeon Rice.

Tampa Bay RB Michael Pittman vs. Denver WLB D.J. Williams

Tampa Bay QB Brad Johnson vs. Denver DC Champ Bailey

Denver TE Jeb Putzier vs. Tampa Bay SS Dwight Smith

Prediction: Broncos 24, Buccaneers 10

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:30 PM

Take 2: Rams vs. 49ers

A big part of the Rams problems stem from a lack of big plays on defense.
They led the NFL in takeovers last year with 46, but through the first
three games this year they have none. They have good speed on defense and
need to capitalize on it more by blitzing a 49ers offensive line that
struggles in blitz pickup. They need to pressure the 49ers with an
aggressive defense rather than sitting back in their cover-2 defense.
When you play the Rams, you must be very conscious of their screen game.
They are among the best in the NFL, and San Francisco's LBs and safeties
must be very aware of reading their keys early in the down, just after the
ball is snapped, so they are not a step behind defending the screen.

BulgerThe 49ers must do a lot of camouflaging and disguising of their
defense before the snap. You can beat QB Marc Bulger in the pre-snap
phase, especially if you show him blitz, then back out. You can force him
to play at a faster pace than he is comfortable with, and this will lead
to a disruption of the Rams timing passing game.
One thing that stood out watching tape this week was how deep 49ers free
safety Ronnie Heard aligned when San Francisco played single deep safety
coverages. Heard was more than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage, not in
position to effectively react to the intermediate passing game. You can be
sure the Rams saw that and will try to exploit it; they will make Heard
pay if he lines up too deep.
49ers QB Ken Dorsey struggled last week because he held on to the ball too
long and took unnecessary hits and sacks. But it is not all his fault. His
receivers are struggling to separate and get open against tight man-to-man
coverage, and a lot of the sacks Dorsey is taking are coverage sacks. The
good news for the 49ers is the Rams will play some cover-2 and off schemes
and give the 49ers receivers a better chance to get open.
The battle between the Rams' offensive line and the 49ers defensive front
seven will be a big key to the game. The Rams pass protection is awful,
with false starts and missed assignments. The 49ers have good speed and
range in their front seven, and their quickness could give the Rams some
problems. The 49ers likely will be without their best pass rusher, RDE
Andre Carter, which is big concern.

Bruce
HoltThe 49ers defensive front seven has excellent quickness, but they have
been unable to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks and are leaving their
secondary exposed in man-to-man coverage. They may change this week and
use more zone coverage, keeping WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce in front of
them and hopefully cutting down on big plays. A big key for the defense
will be to do a better job of tackling Holt and Bruce after the catch.
The foundation of the Rams passing game is 5- and 7-step drops. You want
to pressure Bulger, but you can't sacrifice coverage, since 49ers corners
Ahmed Plummer and Shantae Spencer can't consistently match up on the
outside with Holt and Bruce. Zone blitz, and zone exchange schemes will be
most effective for the 49ers, particularly out of their 3-4 defensive
looks.
One of the alarming trends for the Rams has been their sloppiness and lack
of attention to detail. They had 12 penalties last week, including five
false starts and critical penalties in the kicking game, and it was at
home. The Rams' offense has always had a reputation of being very smart,
business-like and very prepared, which makes their sloppiness baffling.

FaulkThe lack of a running game and ground production from Marshall Faulk
has been well documented, but what may be more alarming is the mediocre
production of Faulk in the passing game. He has 15 receptions for only 84
yards in three games, which indicates he is getting the ball on the
perimeter but isn't making yards after the catch. The speed of the 49ers
defensive front seven is their strength, and Julian Peterson and Jamie
Winborn should be able to contain Faulk on the perimeter.
Despite the pressure to run the ball and show some offensive balance, the
Rams could have some success if they use some four- and five-receiver
sets. The 49ers do not have good secondary depth, and their nickel and
dime packages are weak. If the Rams can get a receiver matched up on a
safety, they would have a big advantage.
Aeneas Williams seemed comfortable in his move back to cornerback, even if
it was only for one game. He fits well in the cover-2, where he can squat
and jump routes, but he must avoid turn-and-run situations due to his lack
of speed. He still moves inside in nickel and dime situations, matching up
against the slot receiver. He is smart and very effective if you don't put
him on an island and ask him to run.

BeasleyWith the 49ers receivers struggling to get open, TE Eric Johnson
and FB Fred Beasley become good options in the passing game. Both are good
matchups vs. linebackers, but it still does not solve the problem of the
lack of a vertical passing game. With limited deep weapons, the Rams can
crowd the line of scrimmage to shut down the run and disrupt the short
passing game, without a lot of worry about being beaten deep.
The Rams are a good play-action offense, but they are unable to use it
with a non-existent run game to set it up. Defenses don't respect the play
fake when they don't respect the running game. Holt and Bruce can be
devastating on deep crossing routes when the play action package is
working and defensive backs are frozen for a step.
The 49ers have a tendency to throw a lot of short routes to their
receivers on third down, with the hope they can make enough yards after
the catch to convert. However, the Rams do a good job of closing on the
ball and tackling. The Rams should have success shutting down the short
routes and forcing the 49ers to throw past the first-down marker.
The Rams linebackers are athletic and cover a lot of ground, but they are
not very physical and are vulnerable to isolation blocks. They are slow to
fill and really struggle against draw plays, opening the opportunity for
Beasley to have a big day as a lead blocker.

Special Teams
The Rams were horrible on special teams last week in their loss to the
Saints. They had two penalties for holding on kickoff returns, a roughing
penalty on a punt and then the questionable squib kick at the end of
regulation that gave the Saints life. PK Jeff Wilkins is the lone bright
spot, as he is a perfect 5-5 and his distance has been excellent.

Matchups

San Francisco ROT Scott Gragg vs. St. Louis LDE Leonard Little

St. Louis WR Torry Holt vs. San Francisco DC Mike Rumph

San Francisco FB Fred Beasley vs. St. Louis SS Adam Archuleta

St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk vs. San Francisco OLB Julian Peterson

San Francisco WR Brandon Lloyd vs. St. Louis DC Jerametrius Butler

Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 13

**wayne1218** · 10-01-2004, 11:31 PM

Take 2: Chiefs vs. Ravens

The Ravens have a talented secondary but they have been giving up some big
plays. They will continue to play single man-to-man coverage, but the
Chiefs do not have a receiver that can exploit a matchup. The Ravens will
try to cover TE Tony Gonzalez with SS Ed Reed. If Reed can handle him
one-on-one, it allows the Ravens to concentrate on stopping Priest Holmes.

One interesting potential matchup would be WR Dante Hall versus nickel
back Deion Sanders. Hall could likely work out of the slot and his
quickness will test Sanders cover skills.

GreenQB Trent Green must know where Reed is on every pass play, especially
when the play call is a pass between the numbers. Reed is the most
instinctive safety in the NFL; he understands and reads routes and QB
progressions as well as any safety in the NFL.
One thing the Ravens must be aware of is the reverse. The Chiefs ran the
reverse 4 times against the Texans, 3 by Dante Hall. He is Kansas City's
only explosive playmaker, and they are looking for ways to get him the
ball in space.
Look for the Ravens' three down linemen to align at times in what is
called a "Bear" front, with the 2 DEs covering the Chiefs guards and the
NT head up on the center. The Texans did this a couple of times last week,
and were able to generate pass rush pressure by blitzing an inside LB
behind it.
The Chiefs will try and stop the run on first and second down with some
blitzes and stunts. With the Ravens lacking any sort of a threat on the
perimeter in the passing game, the Chiefs will use single man-to-man
coverage on the perimeter. The Chiefs are struggling with their tackling
and they cannot sit back and let Jamal Lewis get to the second level. An
aggressive defensive scheme is a "roll of the dice" for the Chiefs. If the
Ravens catch them out of position or over pursuing, there will be some big
plays in the running game.
When the Ravens played Kansas City last season, Baltimore blitzed
approximately half of the Chiefs offensive snaps. Look for them to do more
of the same in this matchup. The Ravens match up very well on the outside
with Chris McAlister and Gary Baxter (and Deion Sanders), and the strength
of Green's game is quick decision making and getting the ball out on time
to the right receiver. They will want to increase the speed of Green's
decision making, and force the Chiefs WRs to win quickly.

HymesA significant part of the Ravens offensive package is what is called
"22" personnel: 2 backs and 2 TEs. Defenses have matched up to this
personnel grouping with a 4-4 package: 4 DL and 4 LBs. Yet defenses have
not always had success stopping Baltimore with the 4-4: Kyle Boller's TD
pass to Randy Hymes, and Jamal Lewis' long TD run against Cincinnati both
came out of "22" personnel versus 4-4 defenses.
The Chiefs want to avoid third and long situations versus these Ravens
cornerbacks, who can play press techniques versus the wide receivers and
take them out of the play. The Chiefs will blitz Green in these situations
to try and force him to hold on to the ball too long or have to get rid of
it quicker than he would like.
The Ravens need big plays from special teams. Boller is not capable of
getting into an offensive shootout with Green. The best recipe for success
for the Ravens is an offense that has a short field to work with.
Holmes had 32 carries last week for 134 yards, but 18 of his carries
resulted in three yards or less. Defenses are stacking eight or nine
defenders at the line of scrimmage with no regard for the Chiefs passing
game.
Jamal Lewis made a lot of his yards last week on missed tackles by the
Bengals or at the very least arm tackles. Lewis has great lower body
strength and the Bengals seemed to have no interest in getting physical
with him. Lewis could have the same result this week versus a Chiefs
defense that is not challenging physical backs or tackling well.
The more you watch film of the Ravens the more you realize that FB Alan
Ricard and ROT Orlando Brown are playing at a very high level, but no one
is talking about them. Ricard may be the most underrated lead blocker in
the league, while Brown is doing a great job in both pass protection and
run blocking. He has eliminated the silly, emotional mistakes he has made
in the past. Both of these guys are another reason the Ravens are running
the ball so well.
The Chiefs used a four linebacker package last week to give them some
versatility, but that may be difficult to do versus the Ravens. The Ravens
offense does a good job of getting to the second level and getting a body
on linebackers.

Special Teams

RS Dante Hall seems to be getting closer to breaking a big return. Film
shows that he is one block away from getting loose and this is a time that
the Chiefs could really use one of his big returns for some points or
great field position. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs coverage
teams are not performing well and are giving opponents good field
position.
Ravens RS B.J. Sams is doing a great job on punt returns and has given the
Ravens excellent field position. In their win last week, the Ravens had
eight drives following a punt or a kickoff and only one drive started
inside their own 20 yard line.

Matchups

Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez vs. Baltimore DS Ed Reed

Baltimore ROT Orlando Brown vs. Kansas City LDE Eric Hicks

Kansas City FB Tony Richardson vs. Baltimore RILB Ray Lewis

Baltimore FB Alan Ricard vs. Kansas City MLB Monty Beisel

Kansas City ROT John Welbourn vs. Baltimore LOLB Terrell Suggs

Prediction: Ravens 16, Chiefs 14

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