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Week of 9/28 NCAA & NFL TRENDS AND FORECASTS
College Football Trends
Wednesday, September 29th
Miami OH (50) at Marshall (-7), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Miami OH - 11-3 ATS off a conference win
Marshall - 1-6 ATS at home in September
**Denotes Time Change
College Football Trends
Thursday, September 30th
Pittsburgh (45) at Connecticut (-7), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Pittsburgh - 3-11 ATS away off BB home games
Connecticut - 6-1 ATS after allowing 3 or less first-half points
Navy (-1) at Air Force (54), 7:30 ET
(Matchup)
Navy - 6-1 ATS away off a win by 6 points or less
Air Force - 1-15 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
**Denotes Time Change
College Football Trends
Friday, October 1st
Utah (-10) at New Mexico (48), 8:00 ET
(Matchup)
Utah - 6-1 ATS away off a SU win/ATS loss
New Mexico - 0-6 ATS after allowing 6 or less points
**Denotes Time Change
College Football Trends
Saturday, October 2nd
**Miami FL (-14) at Georgia Tech (44), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
Miami FL - 1-8 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Georgia Tech - 6-1 ATS at home off a road loss by 21+ points
** Illinois (44) at Wisconsin (-14), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Illinois - 0-8 ATS off a home loss
Wisconsin - 6-1 ATS off BB Unders
**Michigan (-18.5) at Indiana (50.5), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
Michigan - 3-1 ATS at Indiana
Indiana - 6-17 ATS at home off a home game
Wake Forest (43.5) at NC State (-11), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
Wake Forest - 1-5 ATS away off a home win
NC State - 5-1 ATS at home vs. Wake Forest
Michigan State (42.5) at Iowa (-7), 12:05 ET
(Matchup)
Michigan State - 3-11 ATS after playing as a favorite
Iowa - 13-3 ATS in home games
Kansas (45.5) at Nebraska (-13), 7:10 ET
(Matchup)
Kansas - 1-8 ATS off BB losses
Nebraska - 19-7 ATS at home in October
**Arkansas (49.5) at Florida (-7.5), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
Arkansas - 10-3 ATS first half of the season
Florida - 1-7 ATS at home vs. conference opponents
Ohio U (48) at Kentucky (-14), 12:30 ET
(Matchup)
Ohio U - 3-10 ATS away off a home win
Kentucky - 5-1 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
Kent State (-3) at Central Michigan(48.5), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Kent State - 2-9 ATS after allowing 100 or less yards
Central Michigan - 5-1 ATS at home off a non-conference game
TCU (-19) at Army, 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
TCU - 6-1 ATS off BB ATS losses
Army - 2-9 ATS as a home underdog
**Rutgers (45) at Syracuse (-6.5), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
Rutgers - 4-14 ATS off a bye week
Syracuse - 6-1 ATS after scoring 14 or less points
Houston (59) at Memphis (-14), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Houston - 1-8 ATS off a home loss/ATS win
Memphis - 12-4 ATS off a conference loss by 7 points or less
Bowling Green (-7) at Temple (53), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Bowling Green - 5-1 ATS after being penalized 20 yards or less
Temple - 1-8 ATS vs. MAC opponents
**Purdue (-3) at Notre Dame (51.5), 2:30 ET
(Matchup)
Purdue - 1-6 ATS away off a road win
Notre Dame - 7-0 ATS at home after playing as a favorite
**South Carolina (39) at Alabama (-2.5), 6:00 ET
(Matchup)
South Carolina - 11-2 ATS after playing BB games as a favorite
Alabama - 1-7 ATS at home off an Under
**LSU (37) at Georgia (-3), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
LSU - 10-1 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
Georgia - 0-3 ATS vs. LSU
East Carolina at Louisville (-30), 3:00 ET
(Matchup)
East Carolina - 4-12 ATS off a conference game
Louisville - 5-1 ATS off a shutout win
**BYU (48.5) at Colorado State (-3), 10:00 ET
(Matchup)
BYU - 1-6 ATS away after playing BB games as an underdog
Colorado State - 34-17 ATS in October
North Carolina (53) at Florida State (-28), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
North Carolina - 5-1 Under vs. Florida State
Florida State - 8-0 ATS at home off BB home wins
**Arizona State (55) at Oregon (-3), 10:15 ET
(Matchup)
Arizona State - 1-7 ATS as a road underdog
Oregon - 16-4 ATS off BB non-conference games
California (-7) at Oregon State (56.5), 4:00 ET
(Matchup)
California - 0-8 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Oregon State - 14-4 ATS after having 325+ passing yards
Akron at Northern Illinois (-16.5), 4:05 ET
(Matchup)
Akron - 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Northern Illinois - 6-1 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog
Washington (52) at Stanford (-13), 5:00 ET
(Matchup)
Washington - 1-7 ATS in October
Stanford - 10-3 ATS in home games
Central Florida (-10) at Buffalo (49), 6:00 ET
(Matchup)
Central Florida - 6-1 ATS off a bye week
Buffalo - 2-8 ATS in home games
Ball State (63) at Toledo (-15.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Ball State - 2-8 ATS away off a conference win
Toledo - 12-2 ATS as a favorite
Mississippi State at Vanderbilt (-13), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Mississippi State - 3-0 ATS vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt - 4-12 ATS as a home favorite
Fresno State (-14) at Louisiana Tech (50.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Fresno State - 3-18 ATS away in October
Louisiana Tech - 5-1 ATS at home after playing BB games as an underdog
**Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-17), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Iowa State - 0-6 ATS on artificial turf
Oklahoma State - 6-0 ATS after scoring 50+ points
**Baylor at Texas (-37), 12:30 ET
(Matchup)
Baylor - 1-8 ATS after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Texas - 6-1 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
**Colorado (54.5) at Missouri (-7), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
Colorado - 2-8 ATS away off a combined score of 70+ points
Missouri - 5-1 ATS at home after playing as a favorite
**Texas Tech (67.5) at Oklahoma (-28), 12:30 ET
(Matchup)
Texas Tech - 6-1 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers
Oklahoma - 1-6 ATS at home off BB home wins
Southern Miss (-4.5) at South Florida (43), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Southern Miss - 1-6 ATS away after playing a conference game
South Florida - 7-1 ATS after playing as a road underdog
UAB (49.5) at Cincinnati (-2.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
UAB - 27-13 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati - 2-9 ATS last eleven road games
**West Virginia (49) at Virginia Tech (-2), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
West Virginia - 4-13 ATS vs. ACC opponents
Virginia Tech - 7-1 ATS off an Under
**Ohio State (-12) at Northwestern (47), 9:00 ET
(Matchup)
Ohio State - 1-7 ATS as a road favorite
Northwestern - 10-3 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Penn State at Minnesota (NL), 8:00 ET
(Matchup)
Penn State - 1-6 ATS before playing Purdue
Minnesota - 6-1 ATS vs. Penn State
**Kansas State (47.5) at Texas A&M (-5.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Kansas State - 5-1 ATS away off a home game
Texas A&M - 1-7 ATS off a home win
**Auburn (44.5) at Tennessee (-2), 7:45 ET
(Matchup)
Auburn - 5-1 ATS away off a home win
Tennessee - 2-12 ATS in fourth home game off a win
SMU at Boise State (-37), 8:05 ET
(Matchup)
SMU - 1-7 ATS in October
Boise State - 9-2 ATS at home in October
Rice (-14.5) at San Jose State, 9:00 ET
(Matchup)
Rice - 12-3 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Jose State - 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
**San Diego State (48) at UCLA (-6), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
San Diego State - 6-1 ATS away in non-conference games
UCLA - 1-5 ATS at home after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Nevada (45) at UNLV (-6), 10:00 ET
(Matchup)
Nevada - 5-1 ATS away after forcing 3+ turnovers
UNLV - 1-6 ATS after forcing 0 turnovers
Tulsa (61) at Hawaii (-11), 11:59 ET
(Matchup)
Tulsa - 5-1 ATS away off a home game
Hawaii - 1-8 ATS off an Over
Added Games:
Arkansas State () at Mississippi (), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Arkansas State - 1-5 ATS away off a win
Mississippi - 5-1 ATS after having 525+ total yards
Louisiana Monroe (59) at Wyoming (-18), 3:00 ET
(Matchup)
Louisiana Monroe - 7-0 ATS off BB games with a TO margin of -2 or worse
Wyoming - 9-22 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Idaho (57) at Eastern Michigan (-7), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Idaho - 5-1 ATS away off 4+ losses
Eastern Michigan - 2-13 ATS in non-conference games
Louisiana Lafayette at Florida International, 6:00 ET
(Matchup)
Louisiana Lafayette - N/A
Florida International - N/A
**Utah State at Troy State (-13.5), 3;30 ET
(Matchup)
Utah State - 1-5 ATS away off a win
Troy State - 5-1 ATS off BB games scoring 7 or less first-half points
Mid Tenn State (52.5) at North Texas (-3), 7:05 ET
(Matchup)
Mid Tenn State - 0-9 ATS after having a 66%+ completion percentage
North Texas - 3-0 ATS vs. Mid Tenn State
New Mexico State (52) at UTEP (-7), 9:05 ET
(Matchup)
New Mexico State - 6-0 ATS off a loss by 21+ points
UTEP - 1-6 ATS in non-conference games
**Denotes Time Change
The Pigskin Index is designed to give a quick comparison of the relative strength of all covered teams. To see how a game should turn out, simply compare the ratings of the competing teams and add 3 points to the home team. For example, a visiting team with a rating of 100 should be 7 points stronger than a home team with a rating of 90. 100 - (90 + 3) = 7. In neutral field games (such as many bowls), no home team advantage may be appropriate.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
5:00p espn2 Connecticut* 83 2 Pittsburgh 84 -
5:30p ESPN Air Force* 83 1 Navy 85 -
Friday, October 1, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
6:00p espn2 Utah 99 6 New Mexico* 90 -
Saturday, October 2, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
10:00a CBS Florida* 101 9 Arkansas 95 -
10:00a espn2 Florida State* 105 26 North Carolina 82 -
10:00a Iowa* 92 9 Michigan State 86 -
10:00a North Carolina State* 97 12 Wake Forest 88 -
10:00a - Pennsylvania* 74 17 Dartmouth 60 -
10:00a Syracuse* 84 4 Rutgers 83 -
10:00a ESPN West Virginia 102 4 Virginia Tech* 95 -
10:30a FSN Oklahoma* 110 20 Texas Tech 93 -
11:00a Boston College* 91 25 Massachusetts 69 -
11:00a - Central Michigan* 66 3 Kent State 66 -
11:00a - Colgate 70 15 Yale* 52 -
11:00a - T.C.U. 86 23 Army* 60 -
11:30a - Princeton 57 0 Columbia* 54 -
12:00p - Bowling Green 83 11 Temple* 69 -
12:00p - Duke* 74 16 Citadel 61 -
12:00p - Eastern Michigan* 60 6 Idaho 57 -
12:00p - Furman* 74 22 Western Carolina 55 -
12:00p - Illinois State 67 13 Indiana State* 51 -
12:00p - Memphis* 88 15 Houston 76 -
12:00p - Mississippi* 80 15 Arkansas State 68 -
12:00p - Oklahoma State* 96 18 Iowa State 81 -
12:00p - Wisconsin* 96 23 Illinois 76 -
12:30p NBC Purdue 99 2 Notre Dame* 94 -
12:30p - Southern Illinois* 71 8 Northern Iowa 66 -
1:00p - Louisville* 98 31 East Carolina 70 -
1:00p - Western Illinois 67 9 SW Missouri State* 55 -
1:00p - Wyoming* 78 19 La.-Monroe 62 -
1:30p CBS Georgia* 104 1 L.S.U. 106 -
1:30p ABC Miami, Fla. 106 13 Georgia Tech* 90 -
1:30p ABC Michigan 98 15 Indiana* 80 -
1:30p ABC Missouri* 95 4 Colorado 94 -
1:30p ESPN+ Troy State* 80 14 Utah State 69 -
2:00p FSN California 101 4 Oregon State* 94 -
2:05p - Northern Illinois* 84 18 Akron 69 -
3:00p - Stanford* 88 11 Washington 80 -
4:00p espn2 Alabama* 94 1 South Carolina 96 -
4:00p - Central Florida 71 13 Buffalo* 55 -
4:00p - James Madison* 73 8 Hofstra 68 -
4:00p SUN La.-Lafayette 71 9 Florida Int'l* 59 -
5:00p - Fresno State 99 24 Louisiana Tech* 72 -
5:00p - Kentucky* 83 18 Ohio U. 68 -
5:00p - North Texas* 70 3 Mid. Tenn. State 70 -
5:00p - Southern Mississippi 96 8 South Florida* 85 -
5:00p - Texas* 103 33 Baylor 73 -
5:00p TBS Texas A&M* 92 3 Kansas State 92 -
5:00p - Toledo* 86 20 Ball State 69 -
5:00p - U.C.L.A.* 88 2 San Diego State 89 -
5:00p - UA-Birmingham 86 2 Cincinnati* 81 -
5:00p - Vanderbilt* 80 9 Mississippi State 74 -
5:00p - Wofford* 72 23 Chattanooga 52 -
5:10p FSN Nebraska* 94 8 Kansas 89 -
5:30p FSMW Western Kentucky* 77 27 Youngstown State 53 -
5:45p ESPN Tennessee* 100 3 Auburn 100 -
6:00p Minnesota* 99 13 Penn State 89 -
6:05p - Boise State* 96 36 S.M.U. 63 -
7:00p espn2 Ohio State 102 15 Northwestern* 84 -
7:00p - Rice 80 18 San Jose State* 59 -
7:05p - UT-El Paso* 68 0 New Mexico State 71 -
8:00p - Colorado State* 82 4 B.Y.U. 81 -
8:00p - UN-Las Vegas* 69 0 Nevada 72 -
8:15p TBS Arizona State 97 3 Oregon* 91 -
10:05p - Tulsa 80 2 Hawaii* 75 -
*Home Team = + 3 points **Neutral Field
Spr. = Expected Pointspread
Straight-Up Record: 173-51, 77.2% thru 9/25 + = Straight-Up Correct Pick
__________________________________________________ _
NFL Trends
Sunday, October 3rd
**Bye Week: Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle
New York Giants (44) at Green Bay (-7), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
NY Giants - 2-6 ATS as road underdogs
Green Bay - 8-2 ATS at home off BB losses
Philadelphia (-9) at Chicago (40), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Philadelphia - 4-9 ATS vs. Chicago
Chicago - 11-1 ATS as non-division home underdogs
Washington (-3) at Cleveland (35), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Washington - 7-2 ATS after playing Dallas
Cleveland - 0-5 ATS at home between road games
New England (-5.5) at Buffalo (35), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
New England - 3-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Buffalo - 5-0 ATS as an underdog off a bye
Oakland (-2) at Houston (42), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Oakland - 2-7 ATS away vs. AFC South opponents
Houston - 5-1 ATS as home dogs of 9 points or less
Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville (43), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Indianapolis - 1-6 ATS in October
Jacksonville - 14-5 ATS at home off a division win
Cincinnati (38.5) at Pittsburgh (-4), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Cincinnati - 2-9 ATS first month of the season
Pittsburgh - 29-14 ATS in October
Atlanta (39) at Carolina (-3.5), 4:05 ET
(Matchup)
Atlanta - 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or less
Carolina - 7-3 ATS as division home favorites
New Orleans (-3.5) at Arizona (40), 4:05 ET
(Matchup)
New Orleans - 6-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Arizona - 1-5 ATS off a SU loss/ATS win
New York Jets (-6) at Miami (37), 4:15 ET
(Matchup)
NY Jets - 9-2 ATS vs. Miami
Miami - 6-1 Under vs. NY Jets
Denver (-3) at Tampa Bay (35), 4:15 ET
(Matchup)
Denver - 0-6 ATS off a home division win
Tampa Bay - 14-5 Under off a road win
Tennessee (-3) at San Diego (NL), 4:15 ET
(Matchup)
Tennessee - 8-1 ATS away off an Under
San Diego - 8-23 ATS off a road division loss
St. Louis (-4) at San Francisco (44), 8:35 ET
(Matchup)
St. Louis - 1-6 ATS off BB losses
San Francisco - 7-2 ATS at home vs. St. Louis
**Denotes Time Change
NFL Trends
Monday, October 4th
**Bye Week: Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle
Kansas City (41.5) at Baltimore (-5), 9:05 ET
(Matchup)
Kansas City - 1-5 ATS away off a loss by 3 points or less
Baltimore - 6-1 ATS at home after allowing 9 points or less
**Denotes Time Change
Sunday, October 3, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
11:00a FOX Green Bay Packers* 139 8 New York Giants 134 -
11:00a CBS Indianapolis Colts 145 5 Jacksonville Jaguars* 137 -
11:00a CBS New England Patriots 144 9 Buffalo Bills* 132 -
11:00a CBS Oakland Raiders 134 2 Houston Texans* 129 -
11:00a FOX Philadelphia Eagles 145 10 Chicago Bears* 132 -
11:00a CBS Pittsburgh Steelers* 134 5 Cincinnati Bengals 132 -
11:00a FOX Wash. Redskins 135 2 Cleveland Browns* 130 -
2:05p FOX Carolina Panthers* 140 7 Atlanta Falcons 136 -
2:05p FOX New Orleans Saints 133 2 Arizona Cardinals* 128 -
2:15p CBS Denver Broncos 139 1 Tampa Bay Bucs* 135 -
2:15p CBS New York Jets 136 1 Miami Dolphins* 132 -
2:15p CBS Tennessee Titans 137 5 San Diego Chargers* 129 -
6:30p ESPN St. Louis Rams 135 4 San Francisco 49ers* 128 -
Monday, October 4, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
7:00p ABC Baltimore Ravens* 140 6 Kansas City Chiefs 137 -
*Home Team = + 3 points **Neutral Field
Spr. = Expected Pointspread
Straight-Up Record: 30-16, 65.2% thru 9/27 + = Straight-Up Correct Pick
CAN I GET A STICKY??
Wednesday, September 29th
Miami OH (50) at Marshall (-7), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Miami OH - 11-3 ATS off a conference win
Marshall - 1-6 ATS at home in September
**Denotes Time Change
College Football Trends
Thursday, September 30th
Pittsburgh (45) at Connecticut (-7), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Pittsburgh - 3-11 ATS away off BB home games
Connecticut - 6-1 ATS after allowing 3 or less first-half points
Navy (-1) at Air Force (54), 7:30 ET
(Matchup)
Navy - 6-1 ATS away off a win by 6 points or less
Air Force - 1-15 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
**Denotes Time Change
College Football Trends
Friday, October 1st
Utah (-10) at New Mexico (48), 8:00 ET
(Matchup)
Utah - 6-1 ATS away off a SU win/ATS loss
New Mexico - 0-6 ATS after allowing 6 or less points
**Denotes Time Change
College Football Trends
Saturday, October 2nd
**Miami FL (-14) at Georgia Tech (44), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
Miami FL - 1-8 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Georgia Tech - 6-1 ATS at home off a road loss by 21+ points
** Illinois (44) at Wisconsin (-14), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Illinois - 0-8 ATS off a home loss
Wisconsin - 6-1 ATS off BB Unders
**Michigan (-18.5) at Indiana (50.5), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
Michigan - 3-1 ATS at Indiana
Indiana - 6-17 ATS at home off a home game
Wake Forest (43.5) at NC State (-11), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
Wake Forest - 1-5 ATS away off a home win
NC State - 5-1 ATS at home vs. Wake Forest
Michigan State (42.5) at Iowa (-7), 12:05 ET
(Matchup)
Michigan State - 3-11 ATS after playing as a favorite
Iowa - 13-3 ATS in home games
Kansas (45.5) at Nebraska (-13), 7:10 ET
(Matchup)
Kansas - 1-8 ATS off BB losses
Nebraska - 19-7 ATS at home in October
**Arkansas (49.5) at Florida (-7.5), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
Arkansas - 10-3 ATS first half of the season
Florida - 1-7 ATS at home vs. conference opponents
Ohio U (48) at Kentucky (-14), 12:30 ET
(Matchup)
Ohio U - 3-10 ATS away off a home win
Kentucky - 5-1 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
Kent State (-3) at Central Michigan(48.5), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Kent State - 2-9 ATS after allowing 100 or less yards
Central Michigan - 5-1 ATS at home off a non-conference game
TCU (-19) at Army, 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
TCU - 6-1 ATS off BB ATS losses
Army - 2-9 ATS as a home underdog
**Rutgers (45) at Syracuse (-6.5), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
Rutgers - 4-14 ATS off a bye week
Syracuse - 6-1 ATS after scoring 14 or less points
Houston (59) at Memphis (-14), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Houston - 1-8 ATS off a home loss/ATS win
Memphis - 12-4 ATS off a conference loss by 7 points or less
Bowling Green (-7) at Temple (53), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Bowling Green - 5-1 ATS after being penalized 20 yards or less
Temple - 1-8 ATS vs. MAC opponents
**Purdue (-3) at Notre Dame (51.5), 2:30 ET
(Matchup)
Purdue - 1-6 ATS away off a road win
Notre Dame - 7-0 ATS at home after playing as a favorite
**South Carolina (39) at Alabama (-2.5), 6:00 ET
(Matchup)
South Carolina - 11-2 ATS after playing BB games as a favorite
Alabama - 1-7 ATS at home off an Under
**LSU (37) at Georgia (-3), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
LSU - 10-1 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
Georgia - 0-3 ATS vs. LSU
East Carolina at Louisville (-30), 3:00 ET
(Matchup)
East Carolina - 4-12 ATS off a conference game
Louisville - 5-1 ATS off a shutout win
**BYU (48.5) at Colorado State (-3), 10:00 ET
(Matchup)
BYU - 1-6 ATS away after playing BB games as an underdog
Colorado State - 34-17 ATS in October
North Carolina (53) at Florida State (-28), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
North Carolina - 5-1 Under vs. Florida State
Florida State - 8-0 ATS at home off BB home wins
**Arizona State (55) at Oregon (-3), 10:15 ET
(Matchup)
Arizona State - 1-7 ATS as a road underdog
Oregon - 16-4 ATS off BB non-conference games
California (-7) at Oregon State (56.5), 4:00 ET
(Matchup)
California - 0-8 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Oregon State - 14-4 ATS after having 325+ passing yards
Akron at Northern Illinois (-16.5), 4:05 ET
(Matchup)
Akron - 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Northern Illinois - 6-1 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog
Washington (52) at Stanford (-13), 5:00 ET
(Matchup)
Washington - 1-7 ATS in October
Stanford - 10-3 ATS in home games
Central Florida (-10) at Buffalo (49), 6:00 ET
(Matchup)
Central Florida - 6-1 ATS off a bye week
Buffalo - 2-8 ATS in home games
Ball State (63) at Toledo (-15.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Ball State - 2-8 ATS away off a conference win
Toledo - 12-2 ATS as a favorite
Mississippi State at Vanderbilt (-13), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Mississippi State - 3-0 ATS vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt - 4-12 ATS as a home favorite
Fresno State (-14) at Louisiana Tech (50.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Fresno State - 3-18 ATS away in October
Louisiana Tech - 5-1 ATS at home after playing BB games as an underdog
**Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-17), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Iowa State - 0-6 ATS on artificial turf
Oklahoma State - 6-0 ATS after scoring 50+ points
**Baylor at Texas (-37), 12:30 ET
(Matchup)
Baylor - 1-8 ATS after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Texas - 6-1 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
**Colorado (54.5) at Missouri (-7), 3:30 ET
(Matchup)
Colorado - 2-8 ATS away off a combined score of 70+ points
Missouri - 5-1 ATS at home after playing as a favorite
**Texas Tech (67.5) at Oklahoma (-28), 12:30 ET
(Matchup)
Texas Tech - 6-1 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers
Oklahoma - 1-6 ATS at home off BB home wins
Southern Miss (-4.5) at South Florida (43), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Southern Miss - 1-6 ATS away after playing a conference game
South Florida - 7-1 ATS after playing as a road underdog
UAB (49.5) at Cincinnati (-2.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
UAB - 27-13 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati - 2-9 ATS last eleven road games
**West Virginia (49) at Virginia Tech (-2), 12:00 ET
(Matchup)
West Virginia - 4-13 ATS vs. ACC opponents
Virginia Tech - 7-1 ATS off an Under
**Ohio State (-12) at Northwestern (47), 9:00 ET
(Matchup)
Ohio State - 1-7 ATS as a road favorite
Northwestern - 10-3 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Penn State at Minnesota (NL), 8:00 ET
(Matchup)
Penn State - 1-6 ATS before playing Purdue
Minnesota - 6-1 ATS vs. Penn State
**Kansas State (47.5) at Texas A&M (-5.5), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
Kansas State - 5-1 ATS away off a home game
Texas A&M - 1-7 ATS off a home win
**Auburn (44.5) at Tennessee (-2), 7:45 ET
(Matchup)
Auburn - 5-1 ATS away off a home win
Tennessee - 2-12 ATS in fourth home game off a win
SMU at Boise State (-37), 8:05 ET
(Matchup)
SMU - 1-7 ATS in October
Boise State - 9-2 ATS at home in October
Rice (-14.5) at San Jose State, 9:00 ET
(Matchup)
Rice - 12-3 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Jose State - 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
**San Diego State (48) at UCLA (-6), 7:00 ET
(Matchup)
San Diego State - 6-1 ATS away in non-conference games
UCLA - 1-5 ATS at home after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Nevada (45) at UNLV (-6), 10:00 ET
(Matchup)
Nevada - 5-1 ATS away after forcing 3+ turnovers
UNLV - 1-6 ATS after forcing 0 turnovers
Tulsa (61) at Hawaii (-11), 11:59 ET
(Matchup)
Tulsa - 5-1 ATS away off a home game
Hawaii - 1-8 ATS off an Over
Added Games:
Arkansas State () at Mississippi (), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Arkansas State - 1-5 ATS away off a win
Mississippi - 5-1 ATS after having 525+ total yards
Louisiana Monroe (59) at Wyoming (-18), 3:00 ET
(Matchup)
Louisiana Monroe - 7-0 ATS off BB games with a TO margin of -2 or worse
Wyoming - 9-22 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Idaho (57) at Eastern Michigan (-7), 2:00 ET
(Matchup)
Idaho - 5-1 ATS away off 4+ losses
Eastern Michigan - 2-13 ATS in non-conference games
Louisiana Lafayette at Florida International, 6:00 ET
(Matchup)
Louisiana Lafayette - N/A
Florida International - N/A
**Utah State at Troy State (-13.5), 3;30 ET
(Matchup)
Utah State - 1-5 ATS away off a win
Troy State - 5-1 ATS off BB games scoring 7 or less first-half points
Mid Tenn State (52.5) at North Texas (-3), 7:05 ET
(Matchup)
Mid Tenn State - 0-9 ATS after having a 66%+ completion percentage
North Texas - 3-0 ATS vs. Mid Tenn State
New Mexico State (52) at UTEP (-7), 9:05 ET
(Matchup)
New Mexico State - 6-0 ATS off a loss by 21+ points
UTEP - 1-6 ATS in non-conference games
**Denotes Time Change
The Pigskin Index is designed to give a quick comparison of the relative strength of all covered teams. To see how a game should turn out, simply compare the ratings of the competing teams and add 3 points to the home team. For example, a visiting team with a rating of 100 should be 7 points stronger than a home team with a rating of 90. 100 - (90 + 3) = 7. In neutral field games (such as many bowls), no home team advantage may be appropriate.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
5:00p espn2 Connecticut* 83 2 Pittsburgh 84 -
5:30p ESPN Air Force* 83 1 Navy 85 -
Friday, October 1, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
6:00p espn2 Utah 99 6 New Mexico* 90 -
Saturday, October 2, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
10:00a CBS Florida* 101 9 Arkansas 95 -
10:00a espn2 Florida State* 105 26 North Carolina 82 -
10:00a Iowa* 92 9 Michigan State 86 -
10:00a North Carolina State* 97 12 Wake Forest 88 -
10:00a - Pennsylvania* 74 17 Dartmouth 60 -
10:00a Syracuse* 84 4 Rutgers 83 -
10:00a ESPN West Virginia 102 4 Virginia Tech* 95 -
10:30a FSN Oklahoma* 110 20 Texas Tech 93 -
11:00a Boston College* 91 25 Massachusetts 69 -
11:00a - Central Michigan* 66 3 Kent State 66 -
11:00a - Colgate 70 15 Yale* 52 -
11:00a - T.C.U. 86 23 Army* 60 -
11:30a - Princeton 57 0 Columbia* 54 -
12:00p - Bowling Green 83 11 Temple* 69 -
12:00p - Duke* 74 16 Citadel 61 -
12:00p - Eastern Michigan* 60 6 Idaho 57 -
12:00p - Furman* 74 22 Western Carolina 55 -
12:00p - Illinois State 67 13 Indiana State* 51 -
12:00p - Memphis* 88 15 Houston 76 -
12:00p - Mississippi* 80 15 Arkansas State 68 -
12:00p - Oklahoma State* 96 18 Iowa State 81 -
12:00p - Wisconsin* 96 23 Illinois 76 -
12:30p NBC Purdue 99 2 Notre Dame* 94 -
12:30p - Southern Illinois* 71 8 Northern Iowa 66 -
1:00p - Louisville* 98 31 East Carolina 70 -
1:00p - Western Illinois 67 9 SW Missouri State* 55 -
1:00p - Wyoming* 78 19 La.-Monroe 62 -
1:30p CBS Georgia* 104 1 L.S.U. 106 -
1:30p ABC Miami, Fla. 106 13 Georgia Tech* 90 -
1:30p ABC Michigan 98 15 Indiana* 80 -
1:30p ABC Missouri* 95 4 Colorado 94 -
1:30p ESPN+ Troy State* 80 14 Utah State 69 -
2:00p FSN California 101 4 Oregon State* 94 -
2:05p - Northern Illinois* 84 18 Akron 69 -
3:00p - Stanford* 88 11 Washington 80 -
4:00p espn2 Alabama* 94 1 South Carolina 96 -
4:00p - Central Florida 71 13 Buffalo* 55 -
4:00p - James Madison* 73 8 Hofstra 68 -
4:00p SUN La.-Lafayette 71 9 Florida Int'l* 59 -
5:00p - Fresno State 99 24 Louisiana Tech* 72 -
5:00p - Kentucky* 83 18 Ohio U. 68 -
5:00p - North Texas* 70 3 Mid. Tenn. State 70 -
5:00p - Southern Mississippi 96 8 South Florida* 85 -
5:00p - Texas* 103 33 Baylor 73 -
5:00p TBS Texas A&M* 92 3 Kansas State 92 -
5:00p - Toledo* 86 20 Ball State 69 -
5:00p - U.C.L.A.* 88 2 San Diego State 89 -
5:00p - UA-Birmingham 86 2 Cincinnati* 81 -
5:00p - Vanderbilt* 80 9 Mississippi State 74 -
5:00p - Wofford* 72 23 Chattanooga 52 -
5:10p FSN Nebraska* 94 8 Kansas 89 -
5:30p FSMW Western Kentucky* 77 27 Youngstown State 53 -
5:45p ESPN Tennessee* 100 3 Auburn 100 -
6:00p Minnesota* 99 13 Penn State 89 -
6:05p - Boise State* 96 36 S.M.U. 63 -
7:00p espn2 Ohio State 102 15 Northwestern* 84 -
7:00p - Rice 80 18 San Jose State* 59 -
7:05p - UT-El Paso* 68 0 New Mexico State 71 -
8:00p - Colorado State* 82 4 B.Y.U. 81 -
8:00p - UN-Las Vegas* 69 0 Nevada 72 -
8:15p TBS Arizona State 97 3 Oregon* 91 -
10:05p - Tulsa 80 2 Hawaii* 75 -
*Home Team = + 3 points **Neutral Field
Spr. = Expected Pointspread
Straight-Up Record: 173-51, 77.2% thru 9/25 + = Straight-Up Correct Pick
__________________________________________________ _
NFL Trends
Sunday, October 3rd
**Bye Week: Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle
New York Giants (44) at Green Bay (-7), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
NY Giants - 2-6 ATS as road underdogs
Green Bay - 8-2 ATS at home off BB losses
Philadelphia (-9) at Chicago (40), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Philadelphia - 4-9 ATS vs. Chicago
Chicago - 11-1 ATS as non-division home underdogs
Washington (-3) at Cleveland (35), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Washington - 7-2 ATS after playing Dallas
Cleveland - 0-5 ATS at home between road games
New England (-5.5) at Buffalo (35), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
New England - 3-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Buffalo - 5-0 ATS as an underdog off a bye
Oakland (-2) at Houston (42), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Oakland - 2-7 ATS away vs. AFC South opponents
Houston - 5-1 ATS as home dogs of 9 points or less
Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville (43), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Indianapolis - 1-6 ATS in October
Jacksonville - 14-5 ATS at home off a division win
Cincinnati (38.5) at Pittsburgh (-4), 1:00 ET
(Matchup)
Cincinnati - 2-9 ATS first month of the season
Pittsburgh - 29-14 ATS in October
Atlanta (39) at Carolina (-3.5), 4:05 ET
(Matchup)
Atlanta - 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or less
Carolina - 7-3 ATS as division home favorites
New Orleans (-3.5) at Arizona (40), 4:05 ET
(Matchup)
New Orleans - 6-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Arizona - 1-5 ATS off a SU loss/ATS win
New York Jets (-6) at Miami (37), 4:15 ET
(Matchup)
NY Jets - 9-2 ATS vs. Miami
Miami - 6-1 Under vs. NY Jets
Denver (-3) at Tampa Bay (35), 4:15 ET
(Matchup)
Denver - 0-6 ATS off a home division win
Tampa Bay - 14-5 Under off a road win
Tennessee (-3) at San Diego (NL), 4:15 ET
(Matchup)
Tennessee - 8-1 ATS away off an Under
San Diego - 8-23 ATS off a road division loss
St. Louis (-4) at San Francisco (44), 8:35 ET
(Matchup)
St. Louis - 1-6 ATS off BB losses
San Francisco - 7-2 ATS at home vs. St. Louis
**Denotes Time Change
NFL Trends
Monday, October 4th
**Bye Week: Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle
Kansas City (41.5) at Baltimore (-5), 9:05 ET
(Matchup)
Kansas City - 1-5 ATS away off a loss by 3 points or less
Baltimore - 6-1 ATS at home after allowing 9 points or less
**Denotes Time Change
Sunday, October 3, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
11:00a FOX Green Bay Packers* 139 8 New York Giants 134 -
11:00a CBS Indianapolis Colts 145 5 Jacksonville Jaguars* 137 -
11:00a CBS New England Patriots 144 9 Buffalo Bills* 132 -
11:00a CBS Oakland Raiders 134 2 Houston Texans* 129 -
11:00a FOX Philadelphia Eagles 145 10 Chicago Bears* 132 -
11:00a CBS Pittsburgh Steelers* 134 5 Cincinnati Bengals 132 -
11:00a FOX Wash. Redskins 135 2 Cleveland Browns* 130 -
2:05p FOX Carolina Panthers* 140 7 Atlanta Falcons 136 -
2:05p FOX New Orleans Saints 133 2 Arizona Cardinals* 128 -
2:15p CBS Denver Broncos 139 1 Tampa Bay Bucs* 135 -
2:15p CBS New York Jets 136 1 Miami Dolphins* 132 -
2:15p CBS Tennessee Titans 137 5 San Diego Chargers* 129 -
6:30p ESPN St. Louis Rams 135 4 San Francisco 49ers* 128 -
Monday, October 4, 2004
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
7:00p ABC Baltimore Ravens* 140 6 Kansas City Chiefs 137 -
*Home Team = + 3 points **Neutral Field
Spr. = Expected Pointspread
Straight-Up Record: 30-16, 65.2% thru 9/27 + = Straight-Up Correct Pick
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