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**GolfFSU** · 09-30-2004, 10:33 AM

Gerry Dulac's NFL Forecast: 9/30/04

Bengals at Steelers

1 p.m. Sunday

Records: Bengals (1-2); Steelers (2-1)

The skinny: Duce Staley had 83 of his 101 yards in the second half in Miami. He could have that many in the first quarter against Cincinnati. Only dandelions gobble up more yards than opposing running backs who face the Bengals. In two of their first three games, the Bengals gave up 196 rushing yards to Curtis Martin and 186 to Jamal Lewis. The only team they were able to stop on the ground was Miami, and even Bill Cowher dissed that offense last week. The Steelers do not want to repeat their sins of last season when they were 2-1 and lost back-to-back home games against Tennessee and Cleveland, putting them in a tailspin from which they never recovered. If they stick to the ground game, they should get it right this time.

Prediction: Steelers, 31-21

Redskins aqt Browns

1 p.m. Sunday

Records: Redskins (1-2); Browns (1-2)

The skinny: Do not blame the Redskins if they don't recognize the place. Washington hasn't played in Cleveland in 1985, the longest span between games for any NFL team playing against the Browns at home. There was no Rock & Roll Hall of Fame back then, and Municipal Stadium was still standing, serving as a constant reminder to urban blight. However, at least person on the field today was on the field in 1985, and that's Redskins Coach Joe Gibbs, who is finding just how the game has changed in his third tour of duty as head coach. Gibbs was upset at the officiating in Monday night's home loss to Dallas. He will be even more upset when he is notified about the fine he will have to play for criticizing the officials.

Prediction: Browns, 20-17

Patriots at Bills

1 p.m. Sunday

Records: Patriots (2-0); Bills (0-2)

The skinny: Like Buffalo, New England is coming off a bye. Unlike Buffalo, the Patriots are unbeaten and looking for their 18th victory in a row, dating to last season, which would tie an NFL record. The Patriots have shown few chinks in their Super Bowl armor, beating Indianapolis and Arizona without allowing a first-quarter point. What's more, they look even better than last season, when they finished the season with 15 consecutive victories, because of the addition of running back Corey Dillon. The former Bengals back had 158 yards against the Cardinals, the most ground covered by a Patriot on one day since Paul Revere (actually, Robert Edwards in 1998). But this is the NFL, and the Bills aren't as bad as their 0-2 record would indicate. The Upset Special.

Prediction: Bills, 23-21

Eagles at Bears

1 p.m. Sunday

Records: Eagles (3-0); Bears (1-2)

The skinny: Too bad they're not playing the NFC Championship game this weekend. If they were, Philadelphia might actually win one and advance to the Super Bowl. Right now, the Eagles are sharper than a Ginsu knife, which Detroit, also unbeaten at the time, painfully discovered last week. The Birds are getting a lot of production from the newest acquisitions - Terrell Owens and Jevon Kearse - which could be bad news for Chicago. Couple years ago, Owens set an NFL record with 20 catches (283 yards) against the Bears when he was with the 49ers. The Bears have been scrappy and competitive the first three games. That, though, was before quarterback Rex Grossman was injured. Someone named Jonathan Quinn starts against the Eagles, and he would be best served to remember this: Watch out for Kearse, who had three sacks last week.

Prediction: Eagles, 27-20

Giants at Packers

1 p.m. Sunday

Records: Giants (2-1); Packers (1-2)

The skinny: Not too often Brett Favre passes for four touchdowns and Green Bay loses, though that's what happened last week in Indy. That's because Peyton Manning threw six touchdowns against a Packers defense that hasn't quite resembled the unit that played so well in the season opener in Carolina. It has not been an easy stretch for the Pack. They opened against the NFC champs and last week faced a team many think will go to the Super Bowl. Now they get the Giants, who after a poor performance in the season opener have rebounded with back-to-back victories. Kurt Warner, the Giants quarterback, is starting to look like he did in St. Louis. He's also throwing as much.

Prediction: Packers, 31-27

Raiders at Texans

1 p.m. Sunday

Records: Raiders (2-1); Texans (1-2)

The skinny: For the second year in a row, Rich Gannon will miss an extended period of time for Oakland. This time, though, the Raiders are ready (OK, they're better prepared than last year). Kerry Collins, late of the Giants, was acquired in the off season just for that reason . . . and because he's a better deep passer than Gannon. This will be the first time the Raiders will play Houston since the Texans came into the league three years ago. And this will be another chance for the Texans to win back-to-back games, something they haven't done since their inception. David Carr said he wouldn't cut his hair until the Texans win two games in a row. Maybe Samson should book an appointment.

Prediction: Texans, 17-13

Colts at Jaguars

1 p.m. Sunday

Records: Colts (2-1); Jaguars (3-0)

The skinny: This should be an even better indication if Jacksonville is ready for a return to the big-time. After winning in Tennessee, the unbeaten Jaguars face the team everyone expects to win the AFC South - Indianapolis, whose only defeat was in the season opener in New England. The Colts, who scored 45 points against the Packers, will have a more difficult time scoring points against the Jaguars, who have allowed an AFC-low 28 in three games. Of course, the Jaguars have scored just 35 points in three games, too. Jacksonville hasn't started 4-0 since 1998, when they went to the divisional playoffs. The Jaguars have some good karma going, too - they beat the Colts last year at Alltel Stadium, 28-23. But their secondary is the weak link in their defense.

Prediction: Colts, 24-17

Saints at Cardinals

4:05 p.m. Sunday

Records: Saints (2-1); Cardinals (0-3)

The skinny: In three games, Arizona has managed 25 points, which is second fewest among teams who have played three games (Guess who is the lowest?) Granted, the Cardinals have had some key offensive injuries ? wide receiver Anquan Boldin and running back Marcel Shipp - but Dennis Green is not accustomed to such ineptitude. New Orleans thought it might suffer an offensive implosion with the loss of running back Deuce McAlister, but Aaron Stecker stepped in last week and rushed for 106 yards, including a 42-yard touchdown run. For some reason, the Saints play better on the road than they do at home. At least, that has been the case since Jim Haslett became coach. But Arizona, which very easily could have two victories already, won't stay winless for long.

Prediction: Cardinals, 16-14

Falcons at Panthers

4:05 p.m. Sunday

Records: Falcons (3-0); Panthers (1-1)

The skinny: Here's another game that will prove to be a litmus test, this time for Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to start 4-0 for the first time since 1986, but their list of '04 conquests is not very impressive - San Franciso, St. Louis and Arizona. Still, they have won with defense, and the occasional highlight play from Michael Vick, which is why they - not Carolina - lead the NFC South. The Panthers are coming off a bye week, which is not good news for the Falcons. That gives them another week to prepare the replacements for injured stars Stephen Davis and Steve Smith. Not that DeShaun Foster - Davis' replacement - needs any help. He had 174 yards two weeks ago against the Chiefs. Right about now, Davis should be researching articles about Wally Pipp.

Prediction: Panthers, 24-13

Jets at Dolphins

4:15 p.m. Sunday

Records: Jets (2-0); Dolphins (0-3)

The skinny: When an NFL coach acknowledges that another team's offense is not very good, it's not very good. That's what Bill Cowher did after the Steelers 13-3 victory in Miami, and he couldn't have been more exact. The Dolphins are so bad there is a movement underway in South Florida to change the name from Pro Player Stadium to Mid-Level Division II Field. And they are so bad Dave Wannstedt is switching quarterbacks again, this time going from A.J. Feeley back to Jay Fiedler. While the Dolphins are working on a short week, New York had a bye. Not that they will need it in Miami. The Jets have won four of the past six meetings in South Florida, nine of the past 12 overall.

Prediction: Jets, 20-13

Titans at Chargers

4:15 p.m. Sunday

Records: Titans (1-2); Chargers (1-2)

The skinny: After back-to-back losses at home, Tennessee will try to change its luck on the road. What better spot than San Diego, where the franchise hasn't played since 1993 (when the Titans were the Oilers)? The Titans are hurting in more way than one. Steve McNair got knocked from the game against Jaguars, though it will take more than that to keep him from a start. Curiously, the Titans have the NFL's leading rusher - Chris Brown (353 yards) - to pair with McNair and they're still 1-2. If Brown gets another 100 against the Chargers, he will tie Stump Mitchell - Stump Mitchell! -- as the only backs in league history to rush for 100 or more yards in their first four starts. Not even SD's LaDainian Tomlinson, the league's best all-around back, has done that.

Prediction: Titans, 17-14

Broncos at Buccaneers

4:15 p.m. Sunday

Records: Broncos (2-1); Buccaneers (0-3)

The skinny: It's easy to keep thinking Tampa Bay will turn this around. After all, since winning the Super Bowl, the Buccaneers are 7-12, which can only be explained with one word - aberration. But, if you watch the Bucs, you will understand they're not that good. They can't run the ball, their defense has sustained too many key losses and wide receiver Joey Galloway, their lone deep threat, is out. After facing one of their former defensive stalwarts last week - Warren Sapp - the Bucs will get to see another against Denver - former Pro Bowl safety John Lynch. After a fast start, Quentin Griffin has cooled off for the Broncos. Only thing he is piling up now is fumbles.

Prediction: Buccaneers, 14-13

Rams at 49ers

8:30 p.m. Sunday

Records: Rams (1-2); 49ers (0-3)

The skinny: Not exactly what the boys at ESPN had in mind when they scheduled this game. St. Louis is lucky it's not winless like San Francisco and the 49ers are coming off being scoreless in Seattle - the first time the 49ers were shut out since 1977. This used to be one of the marquee matchups in the NFC West. Not anymore. The mighty Rams offense has managed a very-ordinary 59 points in three games, a total they sometimes managed in just one game. Defensively, they've surrendered 72 points, an average of 24 per outings. That might help out the 49ers, who would have trouble piling up points in a pen factory. Here's a tip: "Cold Case" (season premier), CBS, 8 p.m.; "Law and Order, Criminal Intent," 9 p.m., NBC; "Crossing Jordan, 10 p.m., NBC. I'm just tellin' ya.

Prediction: Rams, 24-21

Chiefs at Ravens

9 p.m. Monday

Records: Chiefs (0-3); Ravens (2-1)

The skinny: As a public service, here are the rushing totals allowed by Kansas City the first two weeks of the season: Quentin Griffin, 154; DeShaun Foster, 176. Next: Jamal Lewis. Oh-oh. As a warmup, Lewis had 186 yards last week against the Bengals, leading Baltimore to a 24-9 victory. We will point out that the NFL record for single-game rushing is 295, also held by Lewis (against the Browns). It's possible that record could be in jeopardy, given the Chiefs' propensity for getting pushed around more often than a metal blocking sled. Lewis is so good the Ravens felt compelled to get rid of Priest Holmes after the 2000 season. All he has done is become one of the NFL's most complete and dangerous backs.

Prediction: Ravens, 23-14

Last week: 10-4 (.714)

Season record: 30-16 (.652)

**BettorsChat** · 09-30-2004, 10:38 AM

GolfFSU,

Welcome to the forum

**GolfFSU** · 09-30-2004, 10:38 AM

Anyway, onto week #4. Riding the pine this week will be Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota and Seattle. So that’s two high-powered offenses that won’t be available. Make your roster adjustments accordingly, and good luck to those owners! Here we go with week #4:

CINCINNATI (1-2) AT PITTSBURGH (2-1):

Cincy is getting no love from the schedule makers early this season. They face another tough AFC North division foe after getting run over, through and out of town by the Ravens. Heck, Jamal is still running! The Steeler DBs bites on fakes, so Carson Palmer will get his yards. But, the growing pains continue for the young Bengals as their own defense gets tired of chasing Duce all day long…

Bottom Line: Steelers 27, Bengals 20.

NEW ENGLAND (2-0) AT BUFFALO (0-2):

Remember when Buffalo dismantled the Patriots in week one last season? Well, if you are a Buffalo Fan, get ready for that favor to be returned…again…

Bottom Line: Patriots 23, Bills 10.

OAKLAND (2-1) AT HOUSTON (1-2):

Gee, sorry about the back injury Rich. Here’s your hat and clipboard, stand over there and call signals in to our new starter, Kerry. Wow, these plays never worked this well with you in the game…er…how’s the back, Rich?

Bottom Line: Raiders 26, Texans 20.

WASHINGTON (1-2) AT CLEVELAND (1-2):

The Brownies looked great beating up on the Ravens in week one. What a difference a couple weeks make. Now, Baltimore looks like they just had an off-game that week. Joe Gibbs won’t make that mistake. If Tiki Barber can pound out 100 yards, wait until Clinton Portis gets his chance at this Cleveland D…

Bottom Line: Not So Offensive Team Name 27, Brownies 13.

INDIANAPOLIS (2-1) AT JACKSONVILLE (3-0):

Indy is next in line to take a shot at the cardiac Jags. If any team can keep the game out of reach of these Jags, it’s the Colts, who dropped 45 on the Pack last week. The Jags are resilient, but a suddenly-balanced Peyton and company keep this one just out of reach for the young kitties, and hand them their first loss of the year.

Bottom Line: Colts 24, Jaguars 13.

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-1) AT GREEN BAY (1-2):

Kurt may have some life left after all. He’s a veteran and great at reading coverages, and will make the Pack pay for any lapses. But, pressure is not his favorite anymore, and the Pack hounds him all day here. Warner and Favre will both put up nice passing numbers, but that home field advantage is too strong in Green Bay…

Bottom Line: Packers 30, Giants 27.

PHILADELPHIA (3-0) AT CHICAGO (1-2):

OK, I picked the Eagles to get upset last week by an NFC North also-ran. I won’t make the same mistake twice. Chicago may have had a glimmer of a chance…but not without their QB…

Bottom Line: Eagles 30, Da Bears 13.

NEW ORLEANS (2-1) AT ARIZONA (0-3):

The Saints pulled off a miracle game last week in St. Louis, but more importantly, proved once again they can now finish off the close ones. This one won’t be that close.

Bottom Line: Saints 24, Cardinals 17.

NEW YORK JETS (2-0) AT MIAMI (0-3):

The Jets get their chance to play the NFL’s roaming practice squad. They could use the practice. Until Miami can rush for, oh, lets say 30 yards in a game, they’ll get no respect here.

Bottom Line: Jets 23, Dolphins 10.

ATLANTA (3-0) AT CAROLINA (1-1):

Carolina is one of those teams that play better with their backs to the wall. With Davis and Smith out for extended periods of time, and that big red target painted on their backs from last years’ Super Bowl, they’ll be plastered to that wall for quite some time. Just like they like it…

Bottom Line: Panthers 17, Falcons 13.

DENVER (2-1) AT TAMPA BAY (0-3):

Charlie Garner’s out for the year, Pittman’s back. Heck, even Pittman’s normal 50 to 60 yards a game is better than Garners 20. Not that it matters here though, Denver rolls…

Bottom Line: Broncos 20, Bucs 10.

TENNESSEE (1-2) AT SAN DIEGO (2-1):

The Titans are reeling from their consecutive losses within their division. Nothing like a nice San Diego holiday to fix that, eh? The Titan defense can’t stop LT, but the Bolts can’t stop Chris Brown, so it doesn’t matter. A few key turnovers and the Titans even out their record…

Bottom Line: Titans 24, Chargers 16.

ST LOUIS (1-2) AT SAN FRANCISCO (0-3):

The Niners have yet to win, while New Orleans embarrassed St. Louis at home. The difference? The Rams actually scored some points. The Niners have a better chance against Cal. Actually, Cal is pretty darn good this year, too. Put my money on the Golden Bears…

Bottom Line: Rams 30, 49ers 20.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
KANSAS CITY (0-3) AT BALTIMORE (2-1):

Wait, the Chiefs lost to the Texans? OUCH! Dickie Vermiel is looking for a nice break to get a mark in the win column. He won’t find it in Baltimore, where a swarming defense forces the Chiefs into way too many mistakes. Break out the Pampers again, Dickie V. Who would have thought the Chiefs would be 0-4?

Bottom Line: Ravens 20, Chiefs 16.

MEGAN’S PICK (1-2):

Megan went out on a huge limb with her pick of the Lions. While she made her daddy happy, she did find out the problem with limbs; they break off occasionally! The little one has climbed back up and is looking to get back to her winning ways. This week, Megan picked the Carolina Panthers to beat the undefeated Falcons. Good luck little one!

Last week I made up for my horrible performance of two weeks ago by going 10-4. Much better! Hey, we get a mulligan week here, right? Anyway, remember the fantasy football mantra everyone; it’s only one week! If your stars aren’t performing great year, give them time. Don’t hit the panic button just yet, even if you are 0-3. Good luck in week #4!

**GolfFSU** · 09-30-2004, 10:44 AM

ARGH Predictions
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These are the ARGH system predictions for the game of the weekend of October 2, 2004. IMPORTANT: These are predictions, not betting lines! If you are looking for betting lines, please go to www.vegasinsider.com!

9/29

MARSHALL 2 over Miami, Ohio; total 50

9/30

Navy 4 over AIR FORCE; total 55
CONNECTICUT 8 over Pittsburgh; total 48

10/1

Utah 8 over NEW MEXICO; total 48

10/2

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 19 over Akron; total 56
CINCINNATI pick 'em over Alabama-Birmingham; total 49
Arizona State 9 over OREGON; total 48
FLORIDA 2 over Arkansas; total 52
MISSISSIPPI 13 over Arkansas State; total 57
TENNESSEE pick 'em over Auburn; total 44
TOLEDO 15 over Ball State; total 62
TEXAS 29 over Baylor; total 52
Bowling Green State 10 over TEMPLE; total 56
COLORADO STATE 3 over Brigham Young; total 48
California 3 over OREGON STATE; total 54
Central Florida 10 over BUFFALO; total 53
Colorado 1 over MISSOURI; total 54
LOUISVILLE 29 over East Carolina; total 52
Fresno State 8 over LOUISIANA TECH; total 53
MEMPHIS 16 over Houston; total 57
EASTERN MICHIGAN 10 over Idaho; total 59
WISCONSIN 20 over Illinois; total 42
OKLAHOMA STATE 17 over Iowa State; total 50
NEBRASKA 7 over Kansas; total 47
TEXAS A&M 10 over Kansas State; total 51
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 5 over Kent; total 50
GEORGIA 6 over Louisiana State; total 43
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 5 over Louisiana-Lafayette; total 45
WYOMING 19 over Louisiana-Monroe; total 52
Miami, Florida 13 over GEORGIA TECH; total 42
Michigan 12 over INDIANA; total 54
IOWA 6 over Michigan State; total 42
NORTH TEXAS 4 over Middle Tennessee State; total 51
VANDERBILT 11 over Mississippi State; total 45
Nevada 2 over NEVADA-LAS VEGAS; total 48
TEXAS-EL PASO 5 over New Mexico State; total 54
FLORIDA STATE 25 over North Carolina; total 54
KENTUCKY 8 over Ohio; total 44
Ohio State 13 over NORTHWESTERN; total 49
MINNESOTA 13 over Penn State; total 51
NOTRE DAME 4 over Purdue; total 50
Rice 11 over SAN JOSE STATE; total 50
SYRACUSE 5 over Rutgers; total 45
UCLA 7 over San Diego State; total 49
ALABAMA 1 over South Carolina; total 40
BOISE STATE 35 over Southern Methodist; total 61
Southern Mississippi 2 over SOUTH FLORIDA; total 46
Texas Christian 22 over ARMY; total 69
OKLAHOMA 20 over Texas Tech; total 61
HAWAII 8 over Tulsa; total 50
TROY STATE 11 over Utah State; total 40
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 7 over Wake Forest; total 47
STANFORD 15 over Washington; total 50
West Virginia 1 over VIRGINIA TECH; total 55

ATS picks for all games are evaluated against the first available spread, with pick'em games treated as a one point spread for this purpose only because there are no ties in college football.

Once again I'll be keeping track of games where my methods indicate a particularly good chance of a correct pick against the pointspread. Picks against early spreads (basically the first spread available after I complete these ratings) are the ARGH Early Bird Picks, and are listed below. Picks against spreads (generally Wednesday or later during the season) that have moved to a favorable number are ARGH Buzzer Beater Picks, and will be posted when available.

ARGH Early Bird Picks this week are:

* Arizona State +2.5
* Florida International +8
* Tulsa-Hawaii under 61

ARGH Buzzer Beater Picks this week are:

* ...to be determined...

The results for the ARGH predictions and picks for the 2004 season:

Last Week Overall
Straight-up 33-12 .733 148-44 .771
Against the spread 24-21 .533 88-99-2 .471
Over-under 23-15 .605 50-48-1 .510
ARGH Early Bird Picks 1-2 .333 7-5 .583
ARGH Buzzer Beater Picks 2-0 1.000 3-1 .7

**GolfFSU** · 09-30-2004, 10:55 AM

WEEKEND FORECAST
ERICK SMITH
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SEC is place to be for this weekend's action
Predictions for an uneventful weekend seemed to hold true with no upsets among Top 25 teams. There were a couple of scares as Southern California and Boise State needed rallies in the final minutes to keep their seasons unblemished.
Auburn and Tenneseee should have plenty of confrontations on Saturday night.
By Dave Martin, AP

The uneventful results allowed the Forecast to post a perfect 18-0 mark. Before you go criticizing me for picking all favorites, consider that picking no upsets is probably more risky than trying to find a couple of surprises among almost 20 games.

Before everyone gets worried that this columnist is throwing everything away to move to Las Vegas, I have assured the higher-ups here that I will commit to at least one more week before making the leap. But if I go unbeaten again, all bets are off.

After the Big Ten garnered national attention by opening league play last week, the nation's eyes will turn to the Southeastern Conference, where four of the top 13 teams meet in two huge showdowns.

LSU and Georgia face off with answers on defense and questions on offense. It could be similar to the Tigers' slugfest with Auburn that went down to the final minute.

Saturday's nightcap takes place in Knoxville, where Auburn travels to Tennessee. The Vols have already won one big game at home against Florida behind the steady play of Erik Ainge. The Tigers, too, have one notch under their belt with their defeat of LSU. The winner is in great shape to win its division and advance to the SEC title game in December.

The rest of the schedule sets up next week's huge slate. Oklahoma and Texas get their final work in before the Red River Showdown, and Cal travels to Oregon State before its game with Southern California. In the Big Ten, Minnesota and Michigan continue building toward their meeting in Ann Arbor, and Ohio State and Wisconsin hope to stay unbeaten before clashing in Columbus.

No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech, 12:30 p.m.

The ascension of freshman tailback Adrian Peterson to the starting lineup should help Oklahoma fans remember the glory years of Barry Switzer when running the ball was king. Oklahoma 44, Texas Tech 21.

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 13 LSU, 3:30 p.m.

Two of the nation's better defenses and two of the rising coaches in the country square off for the third time in 12 months. LSU won the last two contests, but Saturday will be Georgia's chance to celebrate. Georgia 16, LSU 13.

No. 4 Miami (Fla.) at Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m.

As he continues to come closer and closer to losing his job, Brock Berlin makes the Hurricanes vulnerable every time they play away from home. Miami (Fla.) 26, Georgia Tech 17.

No. 5 Texas vs. Baylor, 12:30 p.m.

Last chance for the Longhorns to work out the kinks before the real season begins next week in Dallas. Texas 49, Baylor 14.

No. 6 Ohio State at Northwestern, 9 p.m.

A Northwestern player calls Ohio State's offense mediocre? When you've lost 24 straight times to an opponent, it's probably a good time to stay quiet that week. Ohio State 23, Northwestern 10.

No. 7 West Virginia at Virginia Tech, noon

The hardest game of the season for the Mountaineers should decide if they can start thinking about the Orange Bowl or focusing on the Big East race. This nonconference game could make or break the Hokies' season. A win can send them to big things. A loss could precipitate another late-season collapse. Virginia Tech 20, West Virginia 17.

No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Auburn, 7:45 p.m.

The sooner the Volunteers settle on Erik Ainge as the starting quarterback, the sooner they can start to think about contending for the SEC title. Tennessee 24, Auburn 19.

No. 10 California at Oregon State, 4 p.m.

The Golden Bears must be careful not to look ahead to next week's showdown with No. 1 Southern California. California 28, Oregon State 23.

No. 11 Florida State vs. North Carolina, noon

Looks like the Seminoles have found their first quarterback in four years that understands the importance of avoiding turnovers. Florida State 45, North Carolina 17.

No. 14 Utah at New Mexico, 8 p.m. (Thursday)

If his Utes keep winning, the Utah coach will have to describe the team's success as an Urban legend. Utah 28, New Mexico 13

No. 15 Purdue at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m.

In case you wanted to know why Purdue has not won in South Bend since 1974, look at Joe Tiller's three trips. Two turnover-laden losses came on field goals in the final minute and 2002's was the result of the Irish scoring 21 of their 24 on defensive touchdowns. Notre Dame 27, Purdue 24.

No. 16 Florida vs. Arkansas, noon

Sleepwalking against Kentucky didn't pose any danger for the Gators, but the Razorbacks will require an early wake-up call to avoid a devastating loss in the SEC. Florida 24, Arkansas 19.

No. 17 Fresno State at Louisiana Tech, 7 p.m.

Just when Louisiana Tech thought it could catch its breath after games against Miami (Fla.) and Tennessee, another ranked team appears on its schedule. At least this one is at home. Fresno State 33, Louisiana Tech 20.

No. 18 Michigan at Indiana, 3:30 p.m.

Wolverines riding high after a defeat of Iowa and looking forward to next week's game with Minnesota. Sounds like a recipe for Indiana to give Lloyd Carr's team a scare. Michigan 23, Indiana 16.

No. 19 Minnesota vs. Penn State, 8 p.m.

A season of hope has quickly deteriorated for Penn State. Injuries to both Zack Mills and Michael Robinson leave the offense in shaky hands and Joe Paterno closer to the end of the line. Minnesota 30, Penn State 13.

No. 20 Wisconsin vs. Illinois, 2 p.m.

Another team with a dangerous look-ahead situation. Wisconsin leads the nation in scoring defense, which should be enough to hold down the battered Illini and set up a huge Big Ten showdown at Ohio State. Wisconsin 21, Illinois 10.

No. 21 Boise State vs. SMU, 8 p.m.

Not exactly the reward the Mustangs were hoping for after breaking their 15-game losing skid. Boise will make sure to avoid a repeat of last week's scare against BYU. Boise State 42, SMU 17.

No. 22 Louisville vs. East Carolina, 3 p.m.

The Cardinals, known for their offense, might be ready to notch their third shutout of the season. Louisville 38, East Carolina 3.

No. 24 Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State, 2 p.m.

The Cowboys have the most unbalanced offense in America, ranking third in rushing (333.67 yards per game) offense and 116th in passing (86 ypg), but it doesn't stop them from continuing to rack up the wins. Oklahoma State 31, Iowa State 21.

No. 25 Arizona State at Oregon, 10:15 p.m.

Andrew Walter is finally displaying the form that made him a Heisman contender entering last season. It will take his best effort of the season to handle Autzen Stadium and the Ducks. Oregon 30, Arizona State 26.

Last week's record: 18-0 (11-5)

Season record: 69-10 (40-30-1)

**GolfFSU** · 09-30-2004, 11:35 AM

CHICK PICKS
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Becky's Week 4 Picks

Bengals @ Steelers (-4): The Steelers just love to run the ball and the Bengals have proven to be defenseless against studly runners. Look for the Pittsburgh boys to ground it out Steeler-style all afternoon!
Straight Up: Steelers
Spread: Steelers

Colts (-4) @ Jaguars: The Jags have shocked the NFL with their 3-0 start thanks to their nasty defense. But their "D" will face a formidable challenge as they host perfect Peyton and his ponies. The Jags are for real but the Colts will gallop away with the win.
Straight Up: Colts
Spread: Colts

Raiders @ Texans (even): The Raiders are old and tired and their favorite gun will not be getting any action for a while... but they are not dead yet. Norv has breathed some life into this unit and they are ready to teach a few lessons to the spunky youngsters in Houston.
Straight Up: Raiders
Spread: Raiders

Patriots (-5 ½) @ Bills: This game brings back terrifying memories of last year's season opener when the Bills smacked around my homeboys in a 31-0 debacle. But the tides have certainly changed since then! Do not expect Brady's Bunch to get buffalo'd again!
Straight Up: Patriots
Spread: Patriots

Eagles (-8 ½) @ Bears: The Bears have been looking mighty dangerous this season. But fab McNabb and his Eagles are soaring much too high for the Bears to reach. Expect the Eagles to continue to roll as Donovan and T.O. continue to enjoy the honeymoon phase of their blossoming relationship.
Straight Up: Eagles
Spread: Eagles

Redskins (-2 ½) @ Browns: The 'Skins seem to have peaked in Week 1, but those Brownies are looking even more unappetizing. It has been a long year for Jeff Garcia and it is still only September!
Straight Up: Redskins
Spread: Redskins

Giants @ Packers (-7): The G-men have looked pretty darn good the last couple weeks. Warner is close to his old form and Tiki is sneaky once again. But look for Coach Grouchy and his boys to get smacked by the Pack this week. Frisky Favre is throwing bullets and Javon Walker has blossomed before our eyes.
Straight Up: Packers
Spread: Giants

Falcons @ Panthers (-3 ½): The Falcons may have won last week, but Vick and his mates could not have looked any uglier. So which Mike Vick will show up this week? Vick may have some tricks up his sleeve, but the rested Panthers are ready to pounce.
Straight Up: Panthers
Spread: Falcons

Saints (-3) @ Cardinals: Even without the use of their Deuce, the Saints marched into St. Louis and pulled off a heroic victory. Aaron Brooks is playing with confidence and the New Orleans boys should be looking very hot in the desert next week.
Straight Up: Saints
Spread: Saints

Jets (-4 ½) @ Dolphins: The Jets have owned the Dolphins in recent years ...and that was when Miami was competitive! The Jets are taking off fast this year behind the fabulous gun of our lad Chad. Look for a lopsided bout as the Jets explode after a week's vacation.
Straight Up: Jets
Spread: Jets

Titans (-3) @ Chargers: The poor Titans have lost two straight games including last week's heartbreaker and now their studly leader is ailing. But the NFL has the perfect remedy for slumping men - a date with the sleazy Chargers! The San Diego boys rarely meet a unit they can resist!
Straight Up: Titans
Spread: Titans

Broncos (-3) @ Buccaneers: The Broncos gave their fans something to fret about when they failed to be able to run the ball against the chargeless Chargers. But their problems are miniscule compared to those of the dazed and confused Bucs. This team bears no resemblance to the 2002 championship team ...except for the priceless scowl on the sidelines, of course!!!
Straight Up: Broncos
Spread: Broncos

Rams (-3 ½) @ 49ers: The Rams will not be playing in the post-season if their gunslinger does not settle down, but they have far too much talent to let this easy prey get away.
Straight Up: Rams
Spread: Rams

Chiefs @ Ravens (-4 ½): Could the explosive Chiefs actually sink to a 0-4 start? It sounds crazy, but it is looking darn likely. Jamal Lewis has finally found his stride and the K.C. boys have proven to be defenseless. Please do not cry, Dick - there is a chance I will be wrong!
Straight Up: Ravens
Spread: Chiefs

Last Week:
Straight Up: 11-3
Spread: 10-3-1

Year to Date:
Straight Up: 31-14
Spread: 23-20-2

Jaime's College Picks - 9/23/04

#1 USC Trojans @ Stanford Cardinal
It's a NoCal meets SoCal affair out west, and this one should be a lot more fun than it looks. The last time the brainy Cardinal met up with a #1 team was back in '90, and they outwitted the pants off Notre Dame in a huge upset. We all know the braun that the Men of Troy are armed with - a stud QB Matt Leinart, and a few more muscles in Reggie Bush and LenDale White. But Stanford's brains have helped them plenty, with smart slinger Trent Edwards and a bookend defense that forced 7 turnovers in their last game. The Cardinal will be a tough test for the SoCal soldiers, but USC will pass with flying colors.

#2 Oklahoma Sooners - The Boomer Sooner has a much deserved week off to rest their big wheels.

#3 Georgia Bulldogs - The 'Dawgs have the week off to huddle up and think of ways to bark up some offense.

#4 Miami Hurricanes @ Houston Cougars
The Cougars won't be sending their schedule makers any holiday cards this year - they just rebounded from getting steamrolled by the Boomer Sooner, and now they're staring a huge Hurricane in the face. Miami will be coming in on a short week after a pounding of LaTech, but it won't make a roar of a difference - the 'Canes are way too strong to let a trip to Houston catch up to their storm. The Cougars had a great game against Army last week, grabbing an amazing 647 yards of total offense led by cool cat RB Brandon Evans. But simply put, the 'Canes D is just ridiculous and will wash Houston out.

#5 Texas Longhorns vs. Rice Owls
Texas has had plenty of time to rest their horns after a huge win at Arkansas. The 'Horns now know that they can hook whatever comes their way, and the Owls are the first to greet them. Rice is hooting loud with a five-game win streak since last season, a big feat for these birds. The Owls also have their big eyes locked with the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation, and a flying runner in Greg Henderson who adds wings to the other side of the ball. But Texas' scrambling duo of RB Cedric Benson and QB Vince Young will be too much for the Owls to handle, and Texas will run on for the win.

OTHER GREAT GAMES TO SEE
#8 Tennessee Volunteers vs. LaTech Bulldogs - We saw that the Vols have two young fresh QBs to bring them back to the top - now it's the defense's turn to stop LaTech's star runner Ryan Moats.

#11 Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers - Big Daddy Bowden will make sure his Seminoles give son Tommy's Tigers a big spanking after last year's upset.

#13 LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs - The Tigers will earn their stripes back in a tough game with Sly Croom's Dawgs.

#16 Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats - The Gators got more than hosed against Tennessee with a lousy call. Gator super stud Chris Leak keeps getting better, and he'll prove it in a huge game against the 'Cats.

#18 Michigan Wolverines vs. #24 Iowa Hawkeyes - Iowa doesn't have quite the wingspan they used to, and Michigan is finally finding their bite to redeem an early loss.

**GolfFSU** · 09-30-2004, 11:44 AM

THE ZEN ZONE
JEFF ZILLGITT

NFL parity makes it not so easy to Cash in
My cousin sent me a burned copy of a ****** Cash concert from June 26, 1994 in Glastonbury, England. I popped it into the CD player Wednesday morning.

When The Man in Black sang, in that unmistakable, deep and dark voice "cause there's something in a Sunday that makes a body feel alone," he wasn't singing about the NFL.

Cash sang about something entirely different. But if you are a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs or the St. Louis Rams or if you lost a team in a suicide pool or, even worse, lost more cash than you won on NFL games last week, a Sunday can be lonely.

Melodrama aside, I'm beginning to wonder if there is such a thing as Lock of the Week or Upset Special because the underdog beats the favorite often enough for no game in the NFL to be a guarantee.

If picking these games and beating the spread were so easy, we'd all be 46-0 in the office pool and collecting money each week.

We know parity exists in the sense that Arizona, Houston or Detroit won't play in the Super Bowl this season, but the Cardinals, Texans and Lions can be in — and even win — games, home or away, on Sunday.

Houston over Kansas City at Arrowhead? It's an upset, but not necessarily a surprise.

I watched a bit of the NFL Network's program Point After: Sounds of the Game after listening to the ****** Cash show and Ravens coach Brian Billick told his team after Sunday's win at Cincinnati: "I'll say it again and again and again, winning on the road in the NFL is the hardest thing to do in all of team sports."

Well, maybe not that difficult.

After 46 NFL games, the road hasn't been all that unpleasant for traveling teams. Road teams are 20-26, going 7-9 in Week 1, 6-10 in Week 2 and 7-7 in Week 3. The road team also has covered 59% of the time.

The road will be an interesting place for several teams in Week 4. Philadelphia at Chicago, Washington at Cleveland, Indianapolis at Jacksonville, Atlanta at Carolina, Kansas City at Baltimore, Oakland at Houston, New York Jets at Miami, Tennessee at San Diego, Denver at Tampa Bay, St. Louis at San Francisco, New England at Buffalo and New Orleans at Arizona.

It's reasonable to argue the road team could win in each of those 12 games. The home team is the favorite in just three of 14 games this week. Is it possible for road teams to go 11-3, 12-2?

Prognosticate at your own peril.

(Parenthetical info: The NFL Network is addicting TV with all the video footage from postgame locker room scenes with coaches and players before the media is allowed in, the NFL Films Presents and even Rich Eisen's NFL Total Access can be informative and entertaining. I even had a tough time writing this while NFL's Greatest Games showed highlights from the 1962 Packers-Giants championship game.)

This week's picks are dedicated to Monster Stadium, previously known as Candlestick Park, previously known as 3Com Park, previously known as Candlestick Park. Monster Cable Products Inc., a Bay Area company that makes high performance stereo speaker cables, outbid other companies for the naming rights

New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay

Flippant: Lambeau Field changes its name to Johnsonville Stadium.

Serious: The 2-1 Giants, with wins over the Redskins and Browns and a loss to the Eagles, are not as good as the 1-2 Packers, who won at Carolina, lost at home to the improved Bears and lost at Indianapolis.

Packers 23, Giants 17

Philadelphia (-9) at Chicago

Flippant: Soldier Field is now Kingston Mines Coliseum.

Serious: With Rex Grossman, this game might have been the Upset Special. With the injured Grossman out and new starter Jonathan Quinn in, this is almost the Lock of the Week. Take that back. Make it the Lock.

Lock of the Week: Eagles 31, Bears 17

Washington (-3) at Cleveland

Flippant: Cleveland Browns Stadium becomes Rock and Roll Stadium.

Flippant: Against Dallas in Week 2, Browns QB Jeff Garcia had a 0.0 quarterback rating. When called into coach Butch Davis' office, Davis told Garcia: "Mr. Garcia, zero point zero. Inaccurate, turnover-prone and ineffective is no way to go through the NFL, son."

Redskins 21, Browns 17

Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville

Flippant: Jags change stadium name to PGA Tour Park.

Flippant: Fantasy fans want to know: Will Jacksonsville score more than two offensive touchdowns in a game this year?

Upset special: Jaguars 20, Colts 17

New England (-5½ ) at Buffalo

Flippant: Buffalo Wing-T Park.

Serious: Even Jacksonville averages more points a game than the Bills. The Patriots' winning streak is not in jeopardy Sunday.

Patriots 24, Bills 13

Oakland (-2) at Houston

Flippant: Reliant Stadium is now Disgraced Enron Stadium.

Serious: Backup QBs in the NFL will see playing time, and the Raiders don't lose much with Kerry Collins starting in place of injured Rich Gannon.

Raiders 24, Texans 20

(Parenthetical info: The NFL Network's promotional commercials aren't too bad either. In a spoof of The Newlywed Game, Kurt Warner rips on Eli Manning's fashion sensibilities, poking fun of his Southern frat-guy look.

Cincinnati (+4) at Pittsburgh

Flippant: Heinz Field switches name to Andy Warhol Field.

Serious: Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher is 17-7 against Cincinnati and the Steelers own a league-best 28-11 record in October since 1994. The Bengals are 0-3 against the spread this year.

Steelers 19, Bengals 14

Atlanta (+3½) at Carolina

Flippant: Panthers change stadium name to Robert Yates, Richard Childress, Roush, Evernham, DEI, Chip Ganassi, Hendrick, Joe Gibbs, Petty Enterprises Stadium. The Garage, for short.

Serious: John Fox is 1-3 against the Falcons, and no doubt he wants to reverse that trend.

Panthers 20, Falcons 17

New Orleans (-3) at Arizona

Serious: Arizona's new stadium, which will be ready for the 2006 season, should be Pat Tillman Memorial Stadium.

Saints 17, Cardinals 10

New York Jets (-5½) at Miami

Flippant: Pro Player Stadium is now the Ricky Williams Smoke House.

Serious: The Dolphins are averaging 7.7 points a game. They might be able to score more than that against the Jets defense, but not enough to win.

Jets 20, Dolphins 14

Denver (-3) at Tampa Bay

Flippant: Raymond James Stadium sells naming rights and stadium is called Gentleman's Club Park.

Serious: Which offense is worse? Arizona's, Buffalo's, Miami's or Tampa Bay's? Really, I'm serious.

Broncos 16, Bucs 10

Tennessee (-3) at San Diego

Serious: I was tempted to pick the Chargers with the Upset Special. I just don't have enough faith in Drew Brees.

Titans 20, San Diego 16

St. Louis (-3½) at San Francisco

Serious: St. Louis started 1-2 last year and finished 12-4.

Rams 30, 49ers 24

Kansas City (+5½) at Baltimore

Flippant: M&T Bank Stadium becomes Edgar Allan Poe Park.

Serious: The Chiefs cannot afford to drop to 0-4 with games at Jacksonville, vs. Atlanta and vs. Indianapolis next on the schedule. But Kansas City's awful defense hasn't shown it can stop a team.

Ravens 23, Chiefs 21

(Parenthetical info: The NFL Network knows its target audience — hair-loss, beer and Levitra commercials are prominent.)

***

Last week: 10-4 straight up; 29-17 overall; 7-6-1 against the spread (22-20-3 overall)

**GolfFSU** · 10-01-2004, 03:12 PM

ED MCNAMMARA
------------------------
------------------------

Best bet: Ravens

All picks against the spread

Giants: Don't fear phantoms

Giants (2-1) at Packers (1-2)
Line: Packers by 7. O-U: 44.
Many expect the Giants to be blown out in Green Bay, but the Packers' old stadium no longer is a fortress. The Pack is only 3-4 against the spread in the last seven there. Vince Lombardi and the other ghosts haven't helped much lately. If the Giants don't get caught up in the Lambeau mystique, they should score on the Packers. Their defensive backs aren't as bad as they looked against the Colts, but they're not very good. I doubt the Giants will win, but they could keep it close.
The pick: Giants.

Jets: Trolling for dead fish

Jets (2-0) at Dolphins (0-3)
Line: Jets by 6. O-U: 37.
I can't tell what's made WFAN's Joe Benigno happier, the Jets' hot start or the hated Dolphins' collapse. With the logical paranoia of a lifelong Jets fan, he's calling this "a scary game." Unless the Jets space out and are flat off the bye (and who could imagine that?), they'll handle a lost team. Miami's defense is still good but its offense is nonexistent, so QB Jay Fiedler returns. Ricky Williams was seen in Kingston at an Italian/Jamaican restaurant called Mangia Ganja. When told he owes the Dolphins $8.6 million, he said: "What is money? Just dirty green paper. It has value only in your mind."
The pick: Jets.

Marquee matchups

Patriots (2-0) at Bills (0-2)
Line: Patriots by 5 1/2. O-U: 35.
A Patriots win would tie the record of 18 in a row set by Miami in 1972 and '73. Esmeralda the Psychic said Don Shula, humorless mastermind of those machinelike Dolphins, asked her to cast a spell upon the Pats. Her reply: "Begone, gridiron icon, and turn toward the light." The Pats will storm and swarm Drew (Feet of Stone) Bledsoe and upset Shula.
The pick: Patriots.

Colts (2-1) at Jaguars (3-0)
Line: Colts by 4. O-U: 43.
In the week's most intriguing matchup, the NFL's most prolific offense meets its stingiest defense in the battle for first in the AFC South. Jacksonville has allowed only 28 points all season; the Colts got that many in the first quarter against Green Bay. Even if the Jags' killer run defense neutralizes Edgerrin James, Peyton Manning can win without a ground game.
The pick: Colts.

Chiefs (0-3) at Ravens (2-1)
Line: Ravens by 5 1/2. O-U: 41 1/2:
Nancy the liberal Chiefs fan is bummed out. John Kerry is trailing in the polls and her team can't tackle or cover. Even KC's once-unstoppable offense has slipped. Remember the Chiefs' 9-0 start last year and the buzz about going unbeaten? Soon there may be talk of 0-16. Jamal Lewis could run for 300 yards, and Ray Lewis will squash Trent Green like a crabcake.
The pick: Ravens.

Around the league

Raiders (2-1) at Texans (1-2)
Line: Raiders by 2 1/2. O-U: 42:
Going helmet to helmet with Bucs LB Derrick Brooks was a bad move by Rich Gannon, whose neck injury makes Kerry Collins the Raiders' QB. Data bank: Houston was 5-0 ATS last year as a home underdog getting 3½ to 7. That's a juicy nugget, but when the spread is less than 3, taking the better team usually makes sense.
The pick: Raiders.

Eagles (3-0) at Bears (1-2)
Line: Eagles by 9. O-U: 40.
Chicago's secondary is missing three starters and QB Rex Grossman (knee) is out for the season. Jonathan Quinn, in his fourth start in seven seasons, will hand off a lot to Thomas Jones. Donovan McNabb is in career form and Terrell Owens is rehearsing new end-zone celebrations. Philly covered eight of its last nine road games.
The pick: Eagles.

Bengals (1-2) at Steelers (2-1)
Line: Steelers by 4 1/2. O-U: 39.
Why watch: To see promising young QBs Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger on the same field for the first time. In his first start, Pittsburgh rookie Roethlisberger did OK in rainy Miami. RBs Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis should punish a lousy Cincinnati defense, and the Steelers' blitzes will pressure Palmer into mistakes.
The pick: Steelers.

Redskins (1-2) at Browns (1-2)
Line: Redskins by 3. O-U: 35.
Joe Gibbs unwisely challenged a Dallas TD and lost his last timeout, which cost him a chance to force OT in the final seconds. As the Mad Dog might say: "Mikey, that's a bad move by a Legendary Coaching Genius." The 'Skins moved the ball well Monday and should have won. They have more impact players than the battered Brownies.
The pick: Redskins.

Saints (2-1) at Cardinals (0-3)
Line: Saints by 3. O-U: 40.
Fittingly, the team from "The Big Easy" can't stand prosperity. After ending the Rams' home winning streak at 15, the erratic Saints might stumble in the desert. The Cardinals covered at St. Louis and Atlanta and almost got a push against the Pats. At least they're trying hard for Dennis Green.
The pick: Cardinals.

Falcons (3-0) at Panthers (1-1)
Line: Panthers by 3 1/2. O-U: 39.
Unlike the amusing commercial, the Michael Vick Experience isn't always a thrill ride to the end zone. Until Vick becomes more consistent, he'll remain only a virtual reality superstar. After an off game, he could be back on against Carolina, which he beat in his last three starts by a 91-14 margin.
The pick: Falcons.

Titans (1-2) at Chargers (1-2)
Line: Titans by 3. O-U: 41.
The Titans are on the way down. If QB Steve McNair (questionable, sternum) is out or isn't himself for an extended period, they may struggle to go 8-8 in the tough AFC South. No coach is more resourceful or has more wins since '99 than Jeff Fisher, so I'll take Tennessee even if QB Billy Volek starts. It doesn't take much to beat San Diego.
The pick: Titans.

Broncos (2-1) at Bucs (0-3)
Line: Broncos by 3. O-U: 35.
The Broncos haven't been impressive since Week 1 vs. the Chiefs, which almost doesn't count. They make their second Florida trip in three weeks and may not be up for an out-of-conference game. Denver lacks playmakers and the Bucs still can play defense. As a desperate home 'dog they're worth a play.
The pick: Bucs.

Rams (1-2) at 49ers (0-3)
Line: Rams by 3 1/2. O-U: 44.
After being shut out for the first time since 1977, the 49ers got worse news: Candlestick Park has been renamed Monster Park in a deal with Monster Cable. Promo idea: Have Howie Long judge a Frankenstein Flat Top contest, with the square-headed winner getting free bad haircuts for life. The Rams' days as "The Greatest Show on Turf" are gone, but the 49ers have keeled over.
The pick: Rams.

Staff selections

Neil Best

Overall: 24-20-2 Best Bets: 2-1

Giants, Bengals, Dolphins, Redskins, Bills, Cardinals, Jaguars, Falcons, Ravens, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Eagles, Rams

Ken Berger

Overall: 22-22-2 Best Bets: 2-1

Packers, Steelers, Jets, Redskins, Patriots, Saints, Colts, Falcons, Ravens, Titans, Raiders, Broncos, Eagles, Rams

Ed McNamara

Overall: 24-20-2 Best Bets: 2-1

Giants, Steelers, Jets, Redskins, Patriots, Cardinals, Colts, Falcons, Ravens, Titans, Raiders, Bucs, Eagles, Rams

Bob Glauber

Overall: 23-21-2 Best Bets: 2-1

Packers, Steelers, Jets, Redskins, Patriots, Cardinals, Colts, Panthers, Ravens, Titans, Texans, Broncos, Bears, 49ers

**GolfFSU** · 10-01-2004, 03:16 PM

THE HUNCH BUNCH
-

*

HUNCH BUNCH for the 2004 Season:
176-172-6, -2470

HUNCH BUNCH for LAST WEEK:
60-53-3, +2500
RBB and Storm tied for Week #4
Both were 7-3, +1320
Our Hunches: TW: 1-0, +300
Year to Date: 21-16-1, +790
Our Current Bank: 10790 Units
2004 STAR PICKS: 21-11-1, 12770 Units
1. 3stars.gif (1242 bytes) Connecticut* -7 over Pittsburgh (Thursday)
winner.gif (1138 bytes)Pittsburgh had to rally in the 4th quarter and go overtime to get past 1-AA Furman last week. Meanwhile, UConn was whipping up on Army with a great passing performance from QB Dan Orlovsky. We'll take the up-and-coming Huskies to win handily at home.
2. 2stars.gif (1124 bytes) Utah -10 over New Mexico* (Friday)
With New Mexico RB DonTrell Moore banged up, the Lobos face a Utah team hoping to avenge last year's only conference loss. The Utes got a genuine scare from Air Force last week and are well aware of the danger New Mexico presents. Expect a focused performance by Utah.
3. 3stars.gif (1242 bytes) Illinois +14½ over Wisconsin*
Wisconsin is unbeaten, but lousy on offense. The Illini surprised us with a terrific performance last week against Purdue. They may not be in Wisconsin's class, but they might just keep it close since the Badgers have trouble scoring 20 points in a game.
4. 3stars.gif (1242 bytes) Central Michigan* +2½ over Kent State
Just a hunch here that the Chipewas are improving rapidly and Kent State has always been lousy on the road.
5. 2stars.gif (1124 bytes) South Carolina +2½ over Alabama*
Alabama lost their starting QB Croyle for the season. His replacement struggled mightily last week at Arkansas. South Carolina is very talented defensively and Holtz has always been tough to beat when there is a glaring weakness on the opposing sideline.
6. 2stars.gif (1124 bytes)2stars.gif (1124 bytes) LSU +3 over Georgia*
The evidence is trickling in that the Georgia offense is not executing like a top ten team. The Bulldogs managed only 13 points against a Marshall defense that had its hands full on Wednesday night with Miami-Ohio. LSU can play a little defense and their QB play is improving. Tigers can atone for their loss at Auburn with a big win here.
7. 3stars.gif (1242 bytes)2stars.gif (1124 bytes) Rice -14½ over San Jose State*
San Jose State lost badly at SMU last week, snapping the Mustangs 15-game losing streak. Rice is a very competitive WAC team and should cruise through the Spartans pourous defense.
8. 2stars.gif (1124 bytes) NY Giants +7 over Green Bay* nflshield35.gif (1277 bytes)
Maybe you have noticed that QB Kurt Warner is playing like he once did in St. Louis. Pinpoint passing has given the Giants two straight wins and a chance at another in Green Bay. While Favre is masterful under center, the Packer defense is vulnerable to a good passing game and that's just what the G-men bring to town.
9. 3stars.gif (1242 bytes) Pittsburgh* -4 over Cincinnati nflshield35.gif (1277 bytes)
It looks like the transition to Carson Palmer at QB has slowed down the Bengal offense quite a bit. And if Ben Roethlisberger continues to play with poise beyond his years, Maddox may never get his job back. Steeler defense shuts down Cincy for the win.
10. 3stars.gif (1242 bytes) Baltimore* -5½ over Kansas City nflshield35.gif (1277 bytes) (Monday)
We faded the Chiefs last week and got a nice outright win with Houston. This week, KC will face perhaps the best defense in the NFL on the road. Good luck with that.

TOTAL = 30 Stars

* Home Team
** Neutral Field

*

= WEEKLY WINNER - 2000
= WEEKLY WINNER - 2001
= WEEKLY WINNER - 2002
= WEEKLY WINNER - 2003
hstar5.gif (957 bytes) = WEEKLY WINNER - 2004

*

USA (LW: 2-2, -100, YTD: 8-13-0, -3150, 6850) ...
---2003 CHAMPION---
USA LIKES IN THE NCAA FOR 5 STARS EACH.

1. ASU +3
2. STANFORD -13
3. COL+7
4. TEX TECH +28

IN THE NFL FOR 5 STARS EACH
1. AZ +3
2. NYG +7
*

ARGH hstar5.gif (957 bytes) (LW: 6-4, +690, YTD: 20-14, +1420, 11420) ...
---1998 CHAMPION---

Arizona State +2½ *****. Arizona State is underrated at #21/25 and beat up a
then-ranked Iowa team that I expect to make some noise before the end of the
season. Oregon lost to Indiana at home, where this game is, although to be
sure they did beat up on a bad Idaho team also at home. The Sun Devils should
be favored by at least a touchdown.

Baylor +38 *****. There is some reason to think that Baylor has improved from
awful to merely bad, namely last week's beating up of a North Texas team
that blew the Bears out last year. 38 points is still a lot even after three
games, and Texas is known to take it easy and allow opponents to cover via the
back door, witness last week's game against Rice (which unfortunately I took
for a push instead of the cover that Gary posted here. Oh, well...).

Colorado +7 *****. I have Colorado as a slight favorite in this one against
the same Missouri team that lost to the university that will still be known as
Troy State for the rest of the year.

Tulsa-Hawaii under 61 ****. This would be a reasonable total for Hawaii
against a team with average totals so far in their season. Tulsa's averaging 42 in
four games, while D1A's average is closer to 51.

Florida International +7 *****. Who's Florida International? (1) A team that
is moving to Division 1-A next year. (2) A team coached by former Miami
Dolphins quarterback Don Strock. (3) A team that returned every single starter they
had over the off-season. (4) A team that has only played one game so far
this year thanks to hurricanes Tom, Dick, and Harry. The correct answer is (5)
All of the above. When I project how good a team is going to be at the
beginning of the season, one of the major things that I take into account is
returning starters, and this is the first team I've seen in 14 years that returned
all of them. How good are they? Who knows. They weren't very good last year,
but this year they beat Youngstown State by six points in their only game, at
Youngstown State. According to Massey, a BCS participant who rates 1-AA
teams, Youngstown State is about as good as Louisiana-Lafayette. According to
Sagarin, another BCS participant who rates 1-AA teams (every week in USA Today,
available at your local newsstand), Louisiana-Lafayette is much better than
Youngstown State. Hmmm. The difference here is that the game is at Florida
International, Louisiana-Lafayette is predictably horrible (or a second division
Sun Belt team if that makes a difference), and my preseason methods are far
better developed than Sagarin's, whose computer rankings are otherwise
excellent (as are Massey's). Florida Atlantic, the other team moving to 1-A next
year, has been money in the bank so far. My guess is that Florida International
will be as well.

Giants +7 **. Don't look now, but they have a defense and Green Bay doesn't.
That should be enough to keep it close.

Bears +9 **. I have the Iggles ranked as the best team in the NFL, which
usually means an immediate loss. No, that's not what I'm predicting, but a nine
point spread on the road after three weeks of the season is way too much.

Jaguars +4 **. Huh? This is a spread caused by Vegas' overreliance on offense
to the expense of everything else, and if you recognize when the wrong team
is favored for that reason you can make some good money (for entertainment
purposes only). The Jaguars are 3-0 and have given up less than ten points per
game. Granted, they've scored less that twelve per game, but the key is that
they've been able to win while playing stifling defense, and that's something
I'm big on. The Colts lead the league in scoring at 100 points through three
games, and they've outscored their opposition by almost as many points as
the Jags have scored. Still, they've lost one of those games, to an unbeaten
(2-0) New England team, and they're near the bottom of the league in scoring
defense. This makes the teams essentially even; in fact, I have Jacksonville
ranked third in the NFL and the Colts ranked fourth by a small margin. But the
Colts favored? In Jacksonville? I don't think so. Look for an outright win
for the Jags.

*

BC from Boston:
(LW: 3-7, -670, YTD: 11-14, -750, 9250) ...

*

Fitz from San Diego - hstar5.gif (957 bytes) (LW: 2-5-1, -1170, YTD: 13-13-1, -1190, 8810) ...
---2002 CHAMPION---

LSU +3 *****
Colorado +7½ *****
Arizona St. +3 ****
Arkansas +7½ ***
Texas Tech +28 ***
S. Miss -4½ ***
Pitt +7½ **
SDSU +6 **
Michigan St. -7½ *
*

RookieBookieBuster from NC hstar5.gif (957 bytes) (LW: 7-3, +1320, YTD: 19-11, +2280, 12280) ...
*

Red Baron (LW: 2-1, +450, YTD: 2-1, +450, 10450) ...

5 Star
Texas A&M -4
Tennessee -2½

4 Star
Missouri -7
Minnesota -15
Wisconsin -14½

3 Star
Alabama -2½
Memphis -13½

2 Star
Hawaii -11

*

Jack from Vegas (LW: 3-5-2, -750, YTD: 5-12-2, -1890, 8110) ...

Air Force pk 5 stars
Indiana +18½ 5 stars
Iowa State +17½ 5 stars

*

Grubbie from Minneapolis hstar5.gif (957 bytes) (LW: 6-3, +790, YTD: 19-14, +1750, 11750) ...

4 Oregon St +7
4 Georgia -2
3 Notre Dame +3
2 Iowa -7
2 Miss St +13
2 Texas A&M -4

5 Jaguars +4
5 Steelers -4½
3 Dolphins +6
*

Weezer: (LW: 5-5, -40, YTD: 12-18, -2230, 7770) ...
WEEZER - coming up for air this week

COLLEGE:

Iowa -7½ ***
Hawaii/Tulsa Under 61 **
Indiana +19 **
Ala (Birm) +2½ ***
Arizona St +2½ ****
Texas -37½ ****
Texas A&M -4 ***
Syracuse -6 ***
Texas Tech +27½ ***
Air Force +1 ***
*

Pat from San Diego: (LW: 3-3, -150, YTD: 13-11, +450, 10450) ...
*

Kittpix: (LW: 4-2, +900, YTD: 5-7, -1350, 8650) ...
---1999 CHAMPION---

5 stars all

College

Favorites establish dominance this week.

Wisconsin -14½
Illinois had their day in the sun last week, but mark these words their sun has set as their D is getting smoked every week. Badgers D' way too tough at home + Davis returns. Wisconsin 31 Illinois 10

Michigan -18
Indiana has improved, but the chasm remains huge. Michigan has been waiting to open things up and expect their DB's to get a few pic's. Michigans struggles evaporate this week....I've seen it happen too many times as an IU alum. Michigan 42 IU 17

Georgia -2½
This is the year. Nervous QB's at LSU will have their nightmares served on a plate. Sure, Georgia may struggle to score but I'll take Greene over Randall every week. Georgia 24 LSU 17

Boise State -38
I can't remember the last time I saw a better set-up. BSU at home against patsy central. They may score 80 points here and I guarantee that they will be going for the end zone with 1 minute to play up by 55. (Word has it that they will have a Cray supercomputer on the sidelines to compute the offensive stats being put up by the Blue.) Big number or not I just sold my house, my dog and my wife to put some serious scratch on this one. Boise State 63 SMU 13

PRO

GIANTS +7
Green Bay can't beat SMU by 7 these days. Favre is done and Lambeau isn't what is once was for visitors. Pack 20 NY 17

RAVENS -5
Swiss cheese vs. brick wall... give me a break. Unless Priest brings one with him on Monday night they don't have a prayer.
*

Storm from NYC hstar5.gif (957 bytes) (LW: 7-3, +1320, YTD: 19-17, +1290, 11290) ...
*

Rawhide Sports (LW: 5-5, -150, YTD: 9-12-2, -1540, 8460) ...

Okay! Time to get this heap out of Reverse and start heading in the right direction.
We turned ourselves around Monday night with Dallas Money line and the Over in a
Bailout parlay. (Looking at last week's picks, the need for a "bailout" is obvious!)

COLLEGE

SOUTH CAROLINA +2½ *** 3 STARS ======== Holtz has his team playing better
than their recruiting says they should. Alabama has The Bear rolling over in his grave.

INDIANA +18½ *** 3 STARS ======== Indiana is vulnerable to the pass. Michigan
likes to run.

LOUISVILLE - 29½ *** 3 STARS ========The only question here is the cardiovascular
training of Louisville's offense. If they don't get tired going up and down the field, they
should cover.

BYU +3 *** 2 STARS ============BYU can win this outright.

ARIZONA STATE +3 **** 3 STARS === Oregon not that impressive. We'll take the dog
in this battle .

STANFORD -12½ *****4 STARS ==== Stanford CAN contend this year,.

NFL

CAROLINA - 3½ **** 3 STARS ==== Atlanta finally gets to see a real football team.

SAN FRANCISCO +3½ ***** 4 STARS ====== Could be "dead cat bounce" after last
week's shutout,. Against the Ram's defense, they will not be shut out, they should look
like 1985 49'ers.

*

EasyMoneySports (LW: DNP, YTD: 3-0, +1500, 11500) ...
*

Mizurah: (LW: DNP, YTD: 0-0, 0, 10000) ...

*

Dogger in Ohio - (LW: DNP, YTD: 0-0, 0, 10000) ...

*

Sonny From Oswego - (LW: DNP, YTD: 0-0, 0, 10000) ...
HELLO AGAIN
I EXPECT BIG THINGS
TO HAPPEN
=======
ARIZONA ST. +3 (55)
L. S. U. +3 (55)
ARKANSAS +8 (55)
KANSAS +13 (55)
=======
GOOD LUCK AND REMEMBER
I' M ONLY GUESSING
(SONNY FROM OSWEGO)
[We are assuming (55) implies 5 stars on each play ... Gary]
*

DeRose From Kentucky - (LW: DNP, YTD: 0-0, 0, 10000) ...
*

CatMan1978 - (LW: DNP, YTD: 0-0, 0, 10000) ...
*

BigShooter: (LW: DNP, YTD: 0-0, 0, 10000) ...

*

L.A. SMITH - (LW: DNP, YTD: 0-0, 0, 10000) ...
---2000 CHAMPION---

*

John from California - (LY: DNP) ...
---2001 CHAMPION---

**GolfFSU** · 10-01-2004, 03:18 PM

NORM HITZGES
---------------------
---------------------

October 1, 2004--NFL Regular Season Week 4

NCAA

Double Plays

Rice -14.5 vs San Jose
Toledo -16 vs Ball St.
Oregon -2.5 vs Arizona State
Oklahoma St -17.5 vs Iowa St

Single Plays

BYU +3 vs Colorado State
Stanford -12.5 vs Washington
Troy St -14 vs Utah St.
Purdue - vs Notre Dame
Missouri -7 vs Colorado
OU -26.5 vs Texas Tech
Florida State -28.5 vs North Carolina
Californa -7 vs Oregon State
Texas -37.5 vs Baylor

NFL

Double Play

Denver/Tampa Under 35
Buffalo/New England Under 35
Green Bay -7 vs NY Giants
Houston +2.5 vs Oakland

Single Plays

Baltimore -5.5 vs Kansas City
Jacksonville +4 vs Indy
Buffalo +5.5 vs New England
Cincy +4.5 vs Pittsburgh
St. Louis -3.5 vs San Francisco
Washington/Cleveland Over 35
Indy/Jax Over 43

Date Wins Losses
Hall of Fame Week 1 0
Preseason Week 1 1 4
Preseason Week 2 5 1
Preseason Week3 3 4
Preseason Week 4 5 11
Week 1 17 16
Week 2 20 13
Week 3 20 12

Overall
72 61

Announcement

NFL + CFB plays .... picks and anaylsis

NFL + CFB plays .... picks and anaylsis

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