NFL Plays 10/3

[Nalordo]

So a terrible Monday night brings me back down to even so far on the season. Still an overall positive weekend. I actually like this weeks card better, but my reads have differed from a lot of others I've heard, so proceed with caution.

LOSS - 1 UNIT REDSKINS -1
LOSS - 1 UNIT COWBOYS/REDSKINS UNDER 36

Record to date: 6-7-1
Units to date: +0.00 (Not counting vig)

This weeks plays to follow.

[Nalordo]

Lines from Pinnacle as of 8:45 AM PST:

Summary of Plays:
1 UNIT - EAGLES -9
1 UNIT - UNDER 34.5 PATRIOTS/BILLS
5 UNITS - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3.5
3 UNITS - PANTHERS -3.5
3 UNITS - ARIZONA +3
2 UNITS - OVER 36.5 NEW YORK/MIAMI
3 UNITS - TAMPA BAY +3
4 UNITS - TITANS -3

Analysis

New York Giants @
Green Bay Packers (-7)
Over/Under 44

Both of these teams have been tricky to figure out this season. Both QBs have their offenses functioning on all cylinders. The Packers have a bad loss to the Bears at home, which makes me a little leary about them, this is, after all, a team that tends to be unbeatable at home (though the late season cold has a lot to do with that, and it isn't there yet). Still, the Giants haven't convinced me of anything yet.

Play: NO PLAY

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @
Chicago Bears
Over/Under 39.5

There isn't a more confusing team in football right now that the Bears. Last week, decimated by injuries, they still kept things close against the Vikings. While Rex Grossman isn't a world beater, I can only imagine losing him is going to hurt. The Eagles, on the other hand, have surprised the heck out of me this season, this isn't the same Donovan McNabb from seasons past. I'm wary of going against this scrappy Bears team, but I'll make a small play on the Eagles anyway.

Play: 1 UNIT - EAGLES -9

Washington Redskins (-2.5) @
Cleveland Browns
Over/Under 35

I just plain don't like the way the Redskins are playing football right now. Joe Gibbs is a strong coach, who may or may not have lost something from leaving the league and getting on in the years, we'll see. The problem is, right now, I don't know the answer, all I know is his teams only real offensive strength is the running game, and he isn't giving enough carries to Portis. The Browns are a nightmare right now, so to me, this game is a coin flip, which I try to avoid betting on.

Play: NO PLAY

New England Patriots (-5.5) @
Buffalo Bills
Over/Under 34.5

I don't know what it is about the Patriots that fools the linesmakers. It seems like they just don't understand them and still seem to undervalue them. I seem to recall that last year New England's record against the spread was something outrageous, like 15-1 or 14-2, that shouldn't happen. However, the Bills do tend to play them tough (I still hold that they are a bad team though). I do like the under here though with a decent Bills defense and a bad Bills offense.

Play: 1 UNIT - UNDER 34.5

Oakland Raiders (-2.5) @
Houston Texans
Over/Under 42

I am actually of the school of thought that the Raiders are going to win the AFC West (albiet, the very weak AFC West). The Texans feel like a better team than they've been so far. Still, I like the Raiders here, but I'm not going to make a play because I want to see Kerry Collins one more week from start to finish before I decide.

Play: NO PLAY

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under 43

Let me start by saying every year since I've started betting on Pro Football there has been one team that just doesn't add up to me. Last year, it was Carolina, this year, it has been Jacksonville. Every time this team just ruins me. My read on the is so strong, that I just can't get away from it, and it burns me time and time again. That being said, I'm going to make this play, but I don't neccisarily suggest it to anyone else. Big play on the Colts.

Play: 5 UNITS - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3.5

Cinncinnati Bengals @
Pittsburg Steelers (-3.5)
Over/Under 38.5

This game just plain feels like a 3 point win for the Steelers. For that reason alone, it's not worth playing.

Play: NO PLAY

Atlanta Falcons @
Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Over/Under 39

Michael Vick is overrated right now. I do believe he has the talent, but whether it's because his coach won't let him loose or because his offensive line isn't quite good enough, he just isn't there yet. You just don't beat Arizona 6-3 and deserve being called a world beater. I wish the line here was 3, but I don't think it will matter.

Play: 3 UNITS - PANTHERS -3.5

New Orleans Saints (-3) @
Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under 40

Arizona is going to win this game outright. This is a strong hunch, I can't prove it, or back it up with stats or reads, but they're going to beat the Saints.

Play: 3 UNITS - ARIZONA +3

New York Jets (-6) @
Miami Dolphins
Over/Under 36.5

Damn you Dolphins. You were supposed to let AJ Feeley start for a few more games before you pulled him so we could all win money by betting against you. The problem now is, Jay Fiedler is a SUBSTANTIALLY better QB than Feeley. He can scramble, make big plays happen, and just plain keep his team in games. I had a big play going on the Jets until they made that annoucement, it's a shame. I do like the over now, but not as much as I liked the Jets against AJ "Incomplete Pass" Feeley.

Play: 2 UNITS - OVER 36.5

Denver Broncos (-3) @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under 35

Every year, without fail, the Broncos lose to a much worse team on the road. This game looks like that loss to me. The Bucs need a win desperately. They can stop the run, and no way Plummer goes mistake free two weeks in a row. So no run and no pass equals a loss in my book.

Play: 3 UNITS - TAMPA BAY +3

Tennesse Titans (-3) @
San Diego Chargers
Over/Under 41

I hate making this many plays this week, I really do. It seems like the more games you bet on in the NFL the more you tend to middle out, but I just really like this many games. The Chargers Defense stinks, so Chris Brown should run relatively free. McNair, if the past is evidence, will play, and will have his best game of the season. Even if McNair doesn't play, the running game will likely carry the Titans in a "must win" game.

Play: 4 UNITS - TITANS -3

St. Louis Rams (-3.5) @
San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under 44.5

What do you do with a team that's underachieving and a team that stinks? Either bet on the underachieving team (Rams) or just leave it be.

Play: NO PLAY

There it is, good luck to everyone this weekend.

[Nalordo]

Adding a play for the Sunday night game.

St Louis Rams (-3.5) @
San Francisco 49ers

Sometimes, I simply bet on feel. I really think the Rams break out of their slumping ways in this game. No matter how badly coached they are, they still have a lot of talent on the team, and they absolutely need to win here to avoid a 1-3 hole.

Play: 2 UNITS - RAMS -3.5