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**friday** · 09-28-2004, 09:59 PM

LSU/GA please?

geaux tigers!

**STaylor36** · 09-29-2004, 10:33 AM

2-9

This guy's "best bets" are 2-9??

Geez, does he work for Tallahassee?

**Tony Vegas** · 09-30-2004, 12:43 AM

Re: 2-9

Originally posted by STaylor36
This guy's "best bets" are 2-9??

Geez, does he work for Tallahassee?

he was really good last year. don't know what is going on this year.

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:14 PM

Georgia/LSU

By Steve Muench
Scouts, Inc.

Georgia looks to avenge its lopsided 34-13 loss to Louisiana State in the
Southeastern Conference Championship game last year and its 17-10 loss to the
Tigers earlier in the season. It won't be easy, as the Tigers, now 14-9-1 in the
25-game series between these teams, want to avoid losing their second SEC game
in three weeks. Louisiana State also has a 6-5 record in games played in Athens.

Who: LSU (13) at Georgia (3)
When: Sat., 3:30 ET
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.

However, the last time the Tigers visited Sanford Stadium, the Bulldogs stopped
a two-point conversion with just 18 seconds left, resulting in a 23-22 Georgia
victory. It's also important to note that five of the last seven meetings
between these teams have been decided by a combined 17 points.
With the outcome having a significant impact on the conference and possibly
national championship, expect both teams to play at their highest levels in what
should be a very close game.
When LSU has the ball
LSU run offense vs. Georgia run defense
Louisiana State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher will take some chances
downfield, but his offense is powered by the running game, and he will pound the
ball between the tackles early and often. The good news for Georgia is MLB Odell
Thurman will make his first appearance after serving a three-game suspension.
Thurman has excellent range and is an explosive playmaker, even though he lacks
prototypical bulk.
Massive NT Gerald Anderson must occupy blockers at the line of scrimmage and
allow Thurman to flow to the ball without having to fight through many blocks.
The problem is, Tigers OC Ben Wilkerson has the quick feet to get into position
working against Anderson and the power to sustain the block. If Wilkerson can
handle Anderson, the guards will be able to release up to the second level
quickly, and Thurman will struggle to shed block in time to make plays.
LSU also will continue to use its depth in the backfield to its advantage. RB
Justin Vincent is the starter, but backups Joseph Addai and Alley Brousard will
see plenty of touches in relief. The rotation should allow the Tigers to wear
the Bulldogs' front seven down over the course of the game.
Advantage: LSU
LSU pass offense vs. Georgia pass defense
There has been some speculation that QB JaMarcus Russell will replace Marcus
Randall as the starter. While it's unlikely head coach Nick Saban will give the
freshman Russell his first start on the road against Georgia, expect Russell to
see plenty of time in relief. Russell isn't as mobile as Randall, but he is the
better passer.
Look for Louisiana State to take its shots in the vertical passing game when
Russell is in the game, and he should look for WR Skyler Green. Green is
expected to play, despite battling an ankle injury that forced him to miss the
Mississippi State game, and he has awesome speed. He should be able to get
behind the Bulldogs when they bite on play-action, but both Randall and Russell
must be careful. Georgia defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder runs a lot of
zone coverage.
If either quarterback fails to see the safety rotating over, the result could be
a costly turnover, especially since Green lacks the height to consistently
compete for jump balls. In addition, Bulldogs FS Thomas Davis and SS Greg Blue
play with excellent intensity and deliver some big hits. Randall and Russell
must be careful not to lead their receivers too much.
Advantage: Georgia
When Georgia has the ball
Georgia run offense vs. LSU run defense
Freshman RB Danny Ware, who missed the Marshall game with a bruised lung, is
expected to start. Ware had been impressive before the injury, and Georgia hopes
he can pick up right where he left off, but it's unlikely.
The Tigers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, and they are ranked first in
the SEC in rushing yards allowed. Although the Bulldogs' offensive line has
played relatively well, it should struggle with Louisiana State's athletic and
powerful front four. With the defensive line winning the battle at the line of
scrimmage, the Tigers' active linebackers should have success limiting Ware's
production.
It doesn't help Georgia that Louisiana State defensive coordinator Will Muschamp
will walk a safety up to the line of scrimmage if Ware is successful early.
Unlike the Tigers, the Bulldogs likely will have to use the pass to open up the
running game.
Advantage: LSU
Georgia pass offense vs. LSU pass defense

David Greene will under heavy pressure against LSU.
Georgia's protection has been sound, and the backs and tight ends have been a
big part of that, but the Bulldogs face their toughest challenge yet. Muschamp
will consistently blitz QB David Greene, and he'll do it from different areas of
the field. The backs must continue to attack their blocks, and the tight ends
must pick up the most dangerous blitzing defender.
Although Greene makes good decisions and gets rid of the ball quickly, he lacks
the mobility to avoid the rush. One of the reasons Muschamp is so aggressive is
he has corners who can hold up on islands in man coverage.
Fred Gibson is Georgia's best big-play threat at receiver and is extremely
talented, but CB Corey Webster is one of the best in the country. Webster has
the combination of size, speed and agility to limit Gibson's production with
little-to-no safety help over the top.
Advantage: LSU
Special teams
Louisiana State's Chris Jackson and Ryan Gaudet have combined to connect on four
of six field goal attempts. Jackson is responsible for the two misses, both of
which came in the season opener, and he also will handle the punting duties.
While Jackson lacks ideal accuracy, he has a strong leg and is capable of
kicking the Tigers out of trouble.
Louisiana State has two explosive return men in KOR Joseph Addai and PR Shyrone
Carey. The Tigers may also use Green to return punts, and he is extremely
dangerous in the open field.
Georgia PK Andy Bailey has connected on six of his eight field goal attempts and
has been automatic from inside 40 yards, but he doesn't have great range. P
Gordon Ely-Kelso has shown much-improved power thus far and is extremely
accurate, placing five of his 10 punts inside the 20-yard line.
While PR Tyson Browning got off to a strong start, returning a punt 72 yards for
a touchdown in the season opener, he has had problems holding onto the ball. Tim
Jennings and Sean Bailey have had some opportunities to return punts as a
result, but don't be surprised to see Browning if the Bulldogs need a big play.
Advantage: Georgia
Bottom line
Teams that play strong defense and stay committed to the run are generally in
the best position to win close games – but that only applies for teams with
quarterbacks who are reliable, efficient and capable of protecting the football.
While LSU has two-thirds of that winning formula down, its quarterback carousel
will prevent it from pulling off the road upset.
Ware won't put up big numbers working against a stout Louisiana State run
defense, but he will give the Bulldogs' offense the balance it needs to keep
Saban's attacking defense at least somewhat at bay. Greene hasn't played up to
expectations so far, but he typically has risen to the occasion in big games and
we expect him to do the same this Saturday, especially considering how much
hungrier Gibson and Brown have looked at the wide receiver position.
A few costly mistakes will become turnovers and overshadow the fact that LSU was
able to wear the vaunted Bulldog defense down. In the end, experience at the
quarterback position gives Georgia a huge win at home against the defending BCS
national champions.

Prediction: Georgia 21, LSU 20

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:15 PM

Auburn/Tenn.

By Todd McShay
Scouts, Inc.

Saturday night's game represents the 48th meeting between these two storied
programs, but just the third time both have been ranked in the top-10. Following
Auburn's win over LSU and Tennessee's win over Florida two weeks ago, the Tigers
and Volunteers find themselves in the pole position in their respective
divisions. While both teams have treacherous conference schedules, the winner of
this game will be one giant step closer to advancing to the SEC championship
game in Atlanta, GA.

Who: Auburn (9) vs. Tennessee (8)
When: Sat., 7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN

Neither team was expected to rank this highly in 2004 after losing key players
from a season ago. Auburn head coach Tommy Tubberville was fortunate to retain
both of his premier running backs, Carnell "Cadillac" Williams and Ronnie Brown.

The play of QB Jason Campbell remains the "X-factor," particularly in big games.
The biggest personnel turnover came on defense, where the team lost its best
three starters -- OLB Karlos Dansby (Cardinals), MLB Dontarrious Thomas
(Vikings) and DE Reggie Torbor (Giants).
While the unit has allowed an average of only 6.5 points in four games,
including just nine in the LSU win, its toughest test to date will come against
the Volunteers. Tennessee's offense can be overpowering on the ground with its
own two-headed monster at running back -- Cedric Houston and Gerald Riggs.
For Tennessee, the challenge has been to replace four-year starting quarterback
Casey Clausen and three-fourths of its secondary from a season ago. The Vols
have gotten terrific play from their freshman quarterback tandem of Erik Ainge
and Brent Schaeffer. They also have been able to overcome an inconsistent
offense by generating 10 sacks and four interceptions in three games.
Ainge and Schaeffer showed moxie in their first SEC test against Florida, but
can they repeat that success when Auburn comes to town? Furthermore, while the
Tigers don't strike fear with their aerial attack, can the Vols stop the one-two
punch of Williams and Brown? MLB Kevin Simon was lost for the season as a result
of an ACL injury he suffered in the win over Florida.
Key individual matchups
1. Auburn RBs Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown vs. Tennessee WLB Kevin Burnett
The Vols are going to miss Simon. In his absence, Burnett will have to pick up a
lot of the slack. Burnett has terrific range versus the run and is fluid in
coverage. While he can't make up for what the team is missing at middle
linebacker, he can help limit Auburn's perimeter runs.
Burnett can also play an impact role in the passing game. The Tigers rely on
Brown more than Williams to provide a security blanket for QB Campbell as a
check-down option underneath. If Burnett can limit Brown's production in the
passing game, the Vols will be in much better shape than most defenses against
Auburn.
2. Auburn QB Jason Campbell vs. Tennessee FS Jason Allen

Jason Campbell must make some big plays to keep the Vols' defense honest.
One of Campbell's biggest challenges when he comes to the line of scrimmage will
be to find Allen on each play. Allen, who made the move to safety from
cornerback in the offseason, is the Vols' lone returning starter in the
secondary from a season ago. He is tied with Burnett for the team lead in
tackles. He also has 2.5 sacks, one interception and one pass defended. His
versatility is what makes him such a valuable asset; he is capable of defending
the run, blitzing the quarterback and covering the deep middle of the field.
Campbell has a tendency to throw the ball up for grabs. He doesn't do a
consistent enough job of looking off safeties when he's making vertical throws.
If Campbell continues to make ill-advised throws, Allen will be there to
capitalize. As has been the case for Campbell and Auburn in the past, one or two
of those mistakes could be the difference.
3. Tennessee WR Tony Brown vs. Auburn DC Carlos Rogers
The Vols don't have a primary receiver. Tennessee's quarterbacks completed
passes to 10 different skill players in last week's win over Louisiana Tech.
However, Brown is the lone senior starter with very good size and excellent
hands, which makes him a reliable target on third down.
Auburn has an advantage here, because it can move Rogers around. At times, the
Tigers might want to utilize Rogers' size and experience against other Tennessee
receivers with more vertical ability, such as Bret Smith or Jayson Swain. But
they will likely match Rogers up against Brown on third and
short-to-intermediate situations.
Because Rogers has developed into a reliable cover corner with the size,
toughness and savvy to hold up one-on-one, it will allow defensive coordinator
Gene Chizik to be more liberal when it comes to blitzing the young Tennessee
quarterbacks.
Auburn's keys to success
1. Time for Campbell to come of age
Dating back to his freshman season, when Campbell started eight games, the theme
has always been the same. As a senior with significant starting experience, the
Tigers are still trying to protect Campbell.
While his overall statistics haven't been awful, Campbell continues to make
mistakes in critical junctures of big games. He also fails to make big plays for
his offense. Auburn was able to beat LSU earlier in the season, wtih Campbell
completing 16 of 27 passing attempts with one touchdown and no interceptions.
But had he made a couple big plays, Auburn would have put the game away a lot
earlier.
The Tigers need Campbell to finally have the breakout performance in a big game
they have been anticipating for the past two seasons. It will be imperative for
the experienced quarterback to outplay the freshman duo of Ainge and Schaeffer.
2. Williams and Brown must find room
This game will most likely be won or lost on the play of the quarterbacks for
each team. But the team that runs the football with more success will be the one
that puts its quarterback in the best position to succeed.
The Vols have been relatively stout against the run, allowing 121.7 yards per
game on the ground. But they aren't any tougher than LSU's run defense (ranked
10th nationally), which Auburn was able to penetrate for 131 yards just a few
weeks ago. As has been the case when both backs are healthy, look for Williams
to carry a heavier load on the ground. Brown figures to get close to 10 carries,
and also to be more involved as a receiver and blocker on passing downs.
If Williams and Brown can combine for more rushing yards than Houston and Riggs,
they will put their team in an excellent position to win on the road.
3. Cornerbacks need to hold up in heavy-blitz scheme
Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has used a lot of "man-free" coverage this
season, with cornerbacks Rogers and Montavis Pitts playing one-on-one on the
perimeter and FS Junior Rosegreen helping deep. This has allowed the Tigers to
cheat SS Will Herring up into the box on a more consistent basis.
This aggressive eight-man front will be crucial against a Tennessee team looking
to establish a strong running game. As long as Rogers and Pitts hold up on the
outside in man-to-man coverage, Chizik will continue to get away with it.
Tennessee's keys to success
1. Build confidence of quarterbacks early
Ainge and Schaeffer have very different styles. Ainge is a more traditional
drop-back passer, while Schaeffer is much more of a running back at the
quarterback position. The one common denominator is they both need to be eased
into Saturday night's game.
Offensive coordinator Randy Sanders needs to be intelligent in his approach,
while also being careful not to be too conservative early on. Sanders knows
Auburn is going to blitz Ainge early on. Running some three-step drops, screens,
flair-routes and even draws in the first couple of series will help to exploit
the pass rush.
When Schaeffer is in the game, the Tigers will blitz less in order to protect
themselves from the athletic quarterback taking off and running. Getting
Schaeffer involved in the "shotgun read option" right away is likely the best
means to get his feet wet.

Auburn will look to rattle Tennesse's young signal-callers.
2. Houston and Riggs must find room
The Volunteers need their two offensive horses to carry a heavy load. It will be
important for Houston and Riggs to get established early on. A strong running
game will put their young quarterbacks in a better position to succeed, and will
help wear down Auburn's defensive front. The Tigers have talented starters but
lack ideal depth.
The concern for the Vols is that LSU's top two backs -- Justin Vincent and Alley
Broussard -- were able to muster just 118 yards on 22 carries. LSU has a better
offensive line and even more talent at the running back position than Tennessee.
If Houston and Riggs don't combine for more than 150 yards against Auburn, the
Vols will have an extremely tough time winning this football game.
3. Take advantage of punter Dustin Colquitt
Colquitt was a Ray Guy Award finalist as a sophomore in 2002, and as a junior in
2003. He finished sixth in the nation with a 45.3 yards per punt average last
season and is off to another strong start in 2004.
Colquitt is hands down the best all-around punter in the nation this season. He
has good size, leg strength and understanding of angles and placement. He also
has very good control of his punts. In a game where both teams are looking to
establish good field position, Colquitt could be the "X-factor."
While Auburn punter Cody Bliss is no slouch, Colquitt is simply better. If
Colquitt can "flip the field" when the Vols have their backs against the wall
and consistently pin the Tigers when the Vols are punting from midfield, he
could make a big difference.
When Auburn has the ball
New Auburn offensive coordinator Al Borges has installed a version of the West
Coast offense. The offense features a lot of pre-snap shifts and motions
designed to make the scheme look complicated. One of the main goals is to put
Campbell in position to make quicker reads and get the ball out of his hands.
The Tigers have been using a lot of three receiver sets this season with
Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu and Anthony Mix. Taylor leads the team with 11
receptions for 157 yards. Obomanu and Mix both have nine receptions and two
touchdowns. The other receiver who will see playing time is Devin Aromashodu,
who is clearly the big play specialist of the bunch.
The Tigers like to take some chances downfield early, in an attempt to loosen up
the opponent. Campbell has rarely been able to exploit the man-to-man coverage
he is afforded because of all the attention given to Williams and Brown. If
Campbell can hit on one of those early attempts, it would go a long way towards
forcing the Vols to play more honest.
The Tigers have been pretty consistent with the breakdown in playing time and
carries for Williams and Brown. Williams will carry a much heavier load on the
ground and should finish with somewhere between 15 and 20 carries. Brown will be
used mostly on third downs because of his superior blocking and receiving
skills. The Auburn offensive line has been very consistent so far this season.
Not only has it paved the way for an average of 210.5 rushing yards per game, it
has allowed just six sacks in four games.
The problem the Tigers will have on is the lack of respect that Tennessee is
likely to give to their passing attack. The Vols lack the personnel in their
secondary to play as much man-to-man coverage as LSU did, but look for defensive
coordinator John Chavis to be aggressive.
The Vols were obviously dealt a huge blow when they lost Simon to a
season-ending ACL injury. They still have loads of talent in their front-seven.
LDE Parys Haralson, who is active against the run and provides good consistency
as a pass rusher, leads the front four. Burnett is now the anchor of the unit
and his athleticism provides this defense with a lot of versatility. The unit
also got a huge performance from Omar Gaither in his first start last week
against Louisiana Tech, as he led the team with 11 tackles.
The only real question mark on defense for Tennessee is in the secondary, where
Allen is the only returning starter from a season ago. The unit has given up too
many big plays and ranks 85th in the nation with 241.7 yards allowed per game.
The Tigers have done very little to prove they can consistently exploit this
weakness, but don't be surprised if Borges opens things up early on to test the
Vols' inexperienced trio of cornerbacks in Jonathan Wade, Jonathan Hefney and
Roshaun Fellows.
Auburn special teams
The Tigers are solid on special teams but they aren't quite as strong as
Tennessee. Punter Cody Bliss had a solid freshman season in 2003 and is off to
another strong start as a sophomore. He is averaging 41.2 yards per punt and has
landed seven of his first 16 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
PK John Vaughn split time with Philip Yost last season, but won the job outright
in the summer. He has connected on three of his first five attempts so far this
season, with a long of 43 yards. Yost is handling kickoff duties and has had 10
of 22 attempts go for touchbacks.
The return game has been less than spectacular for Auburn, as Tre Smith has
handled the majority of the punt returns and is averaging just 7.5 yards per
return. Cadillac Williams and Silas Daniels have also returned punts this
season. In a key situation, the Tigers could have Cadillac return a punt. As for
the kickoff return game, Brad Lester has handled three of five attempts and is
averaging a respectable 25 yards per return. However, none of the five returns
have gone for more than 32 yards.
When Tennessee has the ball
While the play of Houston and Riggs has carried the Volunteers' offense, the
story has been the rotation at the quarterback position between Ainge and
Schaeffer. When Ainge is in the game, the offense looks a lot like last year's,
when Casey Clausen was at the helm.
Ainge still has a lot of room to grow in terms of his ability to make pre-snap
reads and to check off from receivers who are covered. He has a lot of potential
as a pure passer and has completed an impressive 64.3 percent of his attempts
with eight touchdowns and just one interception.
When Schaeffer is in the game, the offense takes on an entirely different
identity. Tennessee has tailored a system to highlight Schaeffer's running
ability, while also masking his limitations as a passer. Schaeffer will run a
lot of option out of the shotgun and will be used on a lot of rollouts.
While Schaeffer is the more exciting athlete of the two, it seems coach Fulmer
is leaning toward Ainge as the long-term starter. Ainge has begun to see more
playing time and has been in the game during the most critical junctures to
date.
The Vols have a lot of depth at wide receiver with Chris Hannon (11 receptions
for 122 yards), Brown (seven receptions for 103 yards), Smith (six receptions
for 126 yards and Swain (five receptions for 91 yards). But no elite playmaker
has emerged from the bunch.
The Vols have to establish a strong running attack in order to take the pressure
off their young quarterbacks. Houston is the starter and has proven to be a
special back, but his inconsistency can be frustrating.

RB Cedric Houston is capable of producing some big plays.
As Riggs has become more consistent in terms of his receiving and blocking
skills, he has begun to get more playing time. Riggs actually has seven more
carries than Houston on the season. But Houston has proven to be the more
explosive of the two, averaging 2.5 more yards per carry than Riggs.
The Vols are counting on the tandem to combine for over 30 carries and 150
yards. That won't be an easy task against an Auburn run defense that kept LSU's
vaunted running game in check, and has allowed an average of just 114.8 rushing
yards per game this season.
Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik is aggressive by nature. With three returning
starters and the impressive play early on from new starting cornerback Montavis
Pitts, Chizik is turning up the heat. The Tigers lost four key starters from
their outstanding front seven from a season ago. They've been able to overcome
those losses with a more aggressive scheme and some emerging young talent.
The Tigers are getting strong play in the middle from NT T.J. Jackson and DT Jay
Ratliff. Jackson is a classic two-gap run-stopper, while Ratliff is more of a
penetrating defensive lineman who disrupts plays in the backfield. MLB Travis
Williams and WLB Antarrious Williams are doing a fine job of playing from
sideline-to-sideline versus the run. Because of the aggressive play at
cornerback, Chizik has been using SS Herring as an extra linebacker with SLB
Kevin Sears essentially lined up as a wide-end.
The 5-3 alignment makes it very difficult for opponents to create running lanes
and also allows Chizik to be as aggressive as he likes in terms of blitzing. If
the Vols can't find a way to beat man-to-man coverage on the perimeter against
Rogers and Pitts, it could lead to a frustrating night for RBs Houston and Riggs
on the ground.
Tennessee special teams
PK James Wilhoit has obviously been the big name of this unit, but his
inconsistency remains a big concern. He went from goat to hero when he hit a
game-winning 50-yard field goal against Florida. But he also missed an extra
point that would have tied the game. Last week against Louisiana Tech, Wilhoit
missed his only field goal attempt of the game. Wilhoit is now 1 of 3 on field
goal attempts this season. He does a terrific job on kickoffs, but if the game
comes down to a field goal, he is very much a question mark.
The area that gives the Vols the biggest advantage is the punting game. Colquitt
has the potential to bail the Vols out of a lot of bad situations, while also
creating some for Auburn's offense. Colquitt is averaging 44 yards, while
placing six of his 11 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. He also has
the Vols ranking first in the SEC and second nationally in net punting with a
43.8-yard average.
The Vols' weakness is in the return game. They are averaging just 5.5 yards per
punt return and 15.5 yards per kickoff return. Corey Larkins and Gerald Riggs
have handled all four of the teams' kickoff returns, while Hefney, Fayton and
Larkins have combined to return all eight punts for the Vols. Hefney has
established himself as the primary punt return specialist, but he is averaging
just 6.3 yards per return.
Bottom line
The Tigers were more impressive against LSU than the Vols were against Florida.
Auburn should win this football game simply because they are more experienced at
key positions on both sides of the ball.
Campbell is nothing to brag about at the quarterback position, but he's far more
battle-tested than Ainge and Schaeffer. Campbell didn't put up big numbers in
the first big game of the season against LSU, but he led his team on a late
scoring drive and did not throw an interception.
Against a Tennessee defense that has struggled to stop the run, the Tigers have
the potential to establish a much more balanced offensive attack. Furthermore,
because of the strong play of the Auburn secondary, look for defensive
coordinator Chizik to crowd the line of scrimmage with 5-3 fronts.
Inexperienced mistakes will lead to Tennessee turnovers, giving Williams, Brown
and Campbell all the possessions they need to soften up an overrated Volunteers'
defense. It won't be easy, but the Tigers' experience will result in fewer
mistakes.

Prediction: Auburn 26, Tennessee 24

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:17 PM

Fla./Ark.

By Tony Granieri
Scouts, Inc.

The Florida Gators and Arkansas Razorbacks meet for just the sixth time
Saturday. The Gators hold a 4-1 advantage in the previous five meetings,
including last year's 33-28 win.

Who: Arkansas at Florida (16)
When: Sat., noon ET
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla.

After opening the season with four straight home games, Arkansas now has to
travel to one of the most intimidating venues in all of college football to take
on the No. 16 Gators. The Razorbacks currently stand at 3-1, but they are one of
most inexperienced teams in the Southeastern Conference and could unravel
playing in front of 88,000 hostile Gator fans.
Florida comes in with a 2-1 record and is 1-1 in the SEC after defeating
Kentucky 20-3 last weekend. The Gators now look to make it two in a row with a
win over Arkansas.
Two of the country's best quarterbacks, Arkansas' Matt Jones and Florida's Chris
Leak, are set to duel it out on center stage. The two combined for 625 total
yards and four touchdowns in last year's meeting and they will look to one up
each other in what is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair.
When Arkansas has the ball
Arkansas run offense vs. Florida run defense
The Razorbacks' bread-and-butter play this year has been the read-option, run
out of the shotgun formation. Jones does a great job of reading his keys, but he
may have some trouble finding room to work against an athletic Florida defense
led by MLB Channing Crowder.
When Arkansas goes into its shotgun package, the Gators will try to disrupt
Jones' reads by bringing two defenders off the edge. Florida's defensive ends
will turn the corner quickly and chase RB DeCori Birmingham, prompting Jones to
hold onto the ball.
Instead of finding daylight to exploit on the perimeter, Jones will be
confronted with the second defender coming off the edge, which in most cases
will be Crowder. Two weekends ago, Tennessee tried to implement a similar
option-package against the Gators, but Florida was successful in defending it,
limiting QB Brent Schaeffer to just 38 yards on the ground.
Advantage: Florida
Arkansas pass offense vs. Florida pass defense

Matt Jones needs his young WR corps to come of age in a hurry.
With the Gators figuring to bring pressure off the edge, Jones will have some
opportunities to exploit single coverage in the passing game. He should be
particularly effective attacking the perimeter, as the flats will be vacated by
the blitzing linebacker.
As a result, expect to see Razorbacks' coach Houston Nutt implement more screens
in an attempt to get Birmingham out in space where his speed will serve as a
threat to the Florida defense. However, the Razorbacks' receiving corps is
inexperienced and has struggled to make plays.
Although the heavy blitz package employed by Florida will create some chances
for the big play, Arkansas' inexperience at receiver and along the offensive
line could prevent it from taking full advantage. While Jones is talented enough
to mask some of the Razorbacks' weaknesses, Florida simply has more talent.
Advantage: Florida
When Florida has the ball
Florida run offense vs. Arkansas run defense
Arkansas' run defense has been porous and may have a difficult time keeping
Florida RB Ciatrick Fason in check. Fason is coming off a career day – 210 yards
and two TDs vs. Kentucky – and has emerged as the Gators' workhorse. He
currently leads the SEC in rushing and all-purpose yards.
The Gators, like the Razorbacks, will run the option out of the shotgun
formation, using Leak and Fason as a dynamic one-two punch out of the backfield.
However, unlike Arkansas, Florida has the speed at receiver to prevent the
Razorbacks' defense from being as aggressive.
Earlier in the year, Arkansas had success defending the option against Texas,
but Leak is a much better passer than Longhorns' QB Vince Young. As a result,
the Razorbacks will have no choice but to back off, so Leak and Fason should see
a steady diet of six- and seven-man fronts.
Advantage: Florida
Florida pass offense vs. Arkansas pass defense
Leak completed 25 of 43 passes for 261 yards last week, but he also threw three
interceptions, including two in the red zone, and missed some other
opportunities to make plays. Florida cannot afford a similar outing from its
quarterback, as turnovers represent Arkansas' only chance of holding an edge
here.
The Razorbacks' secondary is inexperienced with four new starters, and it should
have a hard time keeping up with WRs Andre Caldwell and Chad Jackson on the
perimeter. Both have the speed to stretch this Arkansas defense. In addition,
look for Leak to take advantage of Arkansas' slot defenders if they start to
cheat inside in an effort to defend the option.
Leak can audible to what's known as the "bubble" screen when this happens. The
"bubble" screen is a two-man pattern that consists of a stalk block by the
X-receiver and a short flair to the sideline by the Z-receiver. Florida runs
this play as well as any team in the country and it use it to keep the
Razorbacks honest. If Leak can return to form, Florida should have a big day
throwing the ball.
Advantage: Florida
Special teams
Arkansas PK Chris Balseiro has connected on two of three field goal attempts
this year, but he lacks ideal leg strength and will struggle to connect on field
goal attempts outside 35 yards. While P Jacob Skinner doesn't offer much in
terms of leg strength either; he is consistent and rarely shanks a punt.
Birmingham returns punts for the Razorbacks and can be dangerous with the ball
in his hands, though he has yet to break the big return. Arkansas also has
returned a blocked punt for a touchdown.
The Gators' special teams, especially the kicking department, have seen better
days. PK Matt Leach missed a 47-yard field goal attempt and had another 47-yard
attempt blocked last week, while P Eric Wilbur also played poorly.
On the year, Leach is now 2-for-5 on field goal attempts and Wilbur is averaging
fewer than 41 yards per punt. PR Vernell Brown is dangerous in the open field
and is capable of providing the Gators with good field position or a quick
score.
Advantage: Arkansas
Bottom line
This game promises to have some fireworks, as Leak and Jones are two of the most
exciting players in the country. But in terms of a supporting cast, Leak holds a
significant edge. The Razorbacks return just four starters from last year's
team, and their inexperience at receiver, in the secondary and across the
offensive line will be too much to overcome against a team like Florida.
Although Jones will do his part to keep this game close, the 88,000 Gator fans
may rattle his younger teammates and ultimately cause the Razorbacks to come
undone. This game will be back and forth early on but Florida should gradually
pull away.

Prediction: Florida 34, Arkansas 24

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:18 PM

N.D./Purdue

By Tony Granieri
Scouts, Inc.

Fresh off its largest victory at home in nearly two years, Notre Dame looks to
keep the momentum going when it plays host to No. 15 Purdue on Saturday. The
game marks the 76th meeting between the two schools (Fighting Irish hold a
49-24-2 edge in all-time series), and the winner will be presented with the
Shillelagh Trophy -- a tradition that started in 1957.

Who: Purdue (15) vs. Notre Dame
When: Sat., 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

Last week Notre Dame rolled to a 38-3 win over Washington behind sophomore QB
Brady Quinn, who etched his name in the school record books by throwing for four
touchdowns. Now Quinn and the Irish have a chance to show they can trade blows
with the nation's highest-scoring offense.
The Boilermakers are coming off a 38-30 win at Illinois in their Big Ten opener,
and they have been sharp on both sides of the ball. Led by QB Kyle Orton, the
Purdue offense is averaging 49.3 points per game and has amassed 1,685 total
yards en route to a 3-0 record. That said, the Boilermakers will draw some stiff
resistance from a Notre Dame defense that has allowed just two offensive
touchdowns in the last three games.
When Purdue has the ball
Purdue run offense vs. Notre Dame run defense
The run-to-pass ratio may never be 50-50 for Purdue, but as long as offensive
coordinator Jim Chaney keeps opponents honest by mixing in the run, his job is
done. RBs Jerod Void and Brandon Jones have combined to shoulder the load for
the Boilermakers, and both have had success as a result of the attention given
to the passing game. Void has rushed for 213 yards on 38 carries this year,
while Jones has netted 150 yards on 32 attempts.
The Fighting Irish have a stingy run defense that is allowing an average of just
88 yards per game, but Void and Jones should have some room to work. With Orton
commanding most of the attention and Purdue spreading the field with
multiple-receiver sets, Notre Dame will be forced to keep their nickel and dime
packages on the field most of the day.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Purdue pass offense vs. Notre Dame pass defense

Purdue's Kyle Orton may be the best QB in the country.
Orton is seeing the field exceptionally well right now and is coming off a
performance in which he spread the ball around to nine different receivers. He
has great command over Chaney's spread attack and ranks second in the nation in
total offense, averaging 344.3 yards per game.
Orton's favorite target is WR Taylor Stubblefield, who has eight touchdown
receptions through three games. Stubblefield knows how to get open and is a
savvy receiver who can be relied on in crucial third-down situations. However,
he will have to elevate his level of play working against the improved level of
competition that Notre Dame's secondary represents.
The Boilermakers will want to spread things out and let the red-hot Orton decide
their fate, but Notre Dame might have an advantage that could keep the passing
game in check: CB Preston Jackson, who has emerged as an absolute ball hawk in
the secondary. He has the speed to match up with Stubblefield in man-coverage.
In addition, Jackson has a good feel for zone coverage and should have success
jumping Stubblefield's routes when the Fighting Irish come out in the cover-2.
If Jackson can limit Stubblefield's production and disrupt Orton's timing, the
Notre Dame defense may be able to keep this game within reach.
Advantage: Purdue
When Notre Dame has the ball
Notre Dame run offense vs. Purdue run defense
After sitting out Notre Dame's opener at Brigham Young, freshman RB Darius
Walker has averaged 98 yards per game over the last three contests. Notre Dame
will need a similar effort, as the Fighting Irish want to control the clock and
keep the ball away from Purdue's high-flying attack. Walker has proven capable
of shouldering a heavy load – carrying the ball 31 times in his debut – and
should have enough success to consistently put Quinn in manageable third-down
situations.
The Boilermakers' 4-3 defense has done a poor job of tackling and will need to
do a much better job of wrapping up. Walker is a gifted runner with the speed to
break some long runs. If the Purdue defense continues to miss tackles, he will
make them pay.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Notre Dame pass offense vs. Purdue pass defense

With the emergence of Darius Walker, the Irish offense is showing signs of
life.
Notre Dame's passing game, still a work in progress, has started to show signs
of life as Quinn has gained experience. Last week the sophomore quarterback
completed 17 of 32 attempts for 266 yards, and his four touchdown passes tied
the school record. WR Rhema McKnight has been Quinn's favorite target thus far
with 14 receptions for 202 yards and a score. Along with the presence of Maurice
Stovall and the emergence of Matt Shelton, this is one of the deepest areas of
the team.
By utilizing the depth of their receiving corps to spread the field, the
Fighting Irish will try to take advantage of Purdue's inconsistent run defense.
Once Walker establishes an effective ground attack, the Boilermakers may have
little choice but to play their safeties near the line of scrimmage. That will
create some single-coverage opportunities for Quinn to exploit. Shelton, the
team's best vertical threat, is averaging 30.4 yards per catch and has the speed
to capitalize.
In addition, the inexperience of last season's offensive line has given way to a
veteran and cohesive unit. The front-five has done a great job protecting Quinn
and helping the fledgling passing attack gain the confidence it needs to be
successful.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Special teams
Purdue PK Ben Jones has connected on three of four field goal attempts and has
range out to 50 yards, but he has struggled with consistency in the past. P Dave
Brytus lacks ideal leg strength and is only averaging 39.3 yards per attempt.
The return game isn't in great shape, either. While Stubblefield, Void and
Jerome Brooks rotate back deep, Brooks is the only one to break a return longer
than 20 yards. Stubblefield and Void have struggled to adjust.
Senior D.J. Fitzpatrick handles both the punting and place-kicking duties for
the Fighting Irish. He has converted three of four field goal attempts,
including a long of 45 yards, while also averaging 41.8 yards per punt. He has
done a great job of kicking Notre Dame out of trouble and already has placed 10
punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Return specialist Carlyle Holiday can
be dangerous in the open field, but he has yet to break a long return.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Bottom line
All the pieces seem to be coming together for the Irish, who have won three in a
row after opening the season with a loss. The defense has rebounded from a slow
start to become one of the best in the country, and the running game got a
much-needed injection of speed with the emergence of Walker. In addition, Quinn
continues to grow into his role as the team's leader.
Those developments will be put to the test by an undefeated and high-powered
Purdue team led by Heisman candidate Orton. The Boilermakers will come out
throwing and look to turn this game into a shootout, but Notre Dame should be
able to control the tempo with Walker figuring to have success on the ground. In
addition, the Fighting Irish pass defense is one of the most opportunistic in
the country and may be able to counter Purdue's explosiveness with some big
plays. Notre Dame has momentum on its side and the luxury of playing at home, so
expect the Irish to win a close contest.

Prediction: Notre Dame 29, Purdue 27

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:19 PM

T.T/Okla.

By Tony Granieri
Scouts, Inc.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma meet for the 12th time this Saturday, with the Red
Raiders traveling to Norman to take on the No. 2 Sooners. Oklahoma leads the
series 9-2 and has reeled off four straight victories against Tech, including
last year's 56-25 drubbing at Lubbock.

Who: Texas Tech at Oklahoma (2)
When: Sat., 12:30 ET
Where: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, Okla.

This game features two of the most explosive offenses in the country. Texas Tech
leads the nation in passing offense and is averaging 40.3 points per game, while
Oklahoma represents the most prolific scoring program in college football
history.
The similarity between these two teams is not an accident. Texas Tech head coach
Mike Leach was an offensive coordinator at Oklahoma under Sooners head coach Bob
Stoops. Leach left for Texas Tech in 1999 and has faced his mentor four times
without registering a win.
Can the pupil finally beat his teacher or will the daunting task of playing in
Norman prove too much for the Red Raiders?
When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech run offense vs. Oklahoma run defense
Texas Tech has averaged 63 passing attempts over its first three games and will
run the ball only about 15 times this week. The Red Raiders' offensive line is
quick and athletic, but its much better in pass protection than it is opening up
holes in the running game.
Oklahoma has the size up front with DTs Lynn McGruder and Remi Ayodele to
dominate this matchup. However, the Sooners will be forced to play the majority
of this game in their nickel and dime packages. The onus will fall on CBs Eric
Bassey and Antonio Perkins to step up in run support as a result.
In fact, all of the Sooners need to wrap up on contact, because RB Taurean
Henderson has game-breaking speed and can provide some big plays if Oklahoma
gets sloppy. Last week Henderson broke free for a 70-yard touchdown against
Kansas.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Texas Tech pass offense vs. Oklahoma pass defense
While Texas Tech isn't going to back off its tendency to throw early and often,
first-year starting QB Sonny Cumbie struggled at Kansas, throwing four
interceptions.

CumbieCumbie is the nation's leader in total offense, but he needs to do a much
better job of protecting the football if the Red Raiders are to have a shot at
the upset. Texas Tech has the talent on the perimeter to exploit Oklahoma's
secondary, but Cumbie has to make the right reads working against Stoops'
complex zone schemes.
Throughout last season, Stoops was quick to call CB Derrick Strait the Sooners'
most valuable defender. With Strait now playing in the NFL, Oklahoma is finding
him tough to replace. After winning the job during the preseason, Bassey has
been inconsistent, and Oregon clearly targeted him two weeks ago.
Although backup Chijioke Onyenegecha eventually could replace Bassey, he too has
had trouble playing up to the level Stoops demands of his corners. In the end,
this isn't a dominating group, but it has more talent than a Kansas secondary
that picked Cumbie off four times last week.
Advantage: Draw
When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma run offense vs. Texas Tech run defense
The emergence of freshmen RB Adrian Peterson, who topped the 100-yard mark in
each of his first three games, has given the Sooners more balance on the
offensive side of the ball. His impact has been so influential Stoops named him
the starter heading into Saturday's matchup.
Peterson currently ranks ninth nationally with 133.3 rushing yards per game and
is averaging a robust 6.2 yards per carry. He should have little trouble
exploiting a Texas Tech run defense currently allowing 151.9 yards per game.
Peterson also benefits from playing behind one of the nation's best offensive
lines, which features two NFL prospects in OT Jammal Brown and OC Vince Carter.
As a result, the Red Raiders likely will play their safeties in the box.
Crowding the line of scrimmage will make Texas Tech vulnerable to play-action
and give QB Jason White some single-coverage opportunities worth exploiting.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Oklahoma pass offense vs. Texas Tech pass defense

An improved running game has opened things up for Jason White.
The presence of Peterson and the balance he provides has made last year's
Heisman trophy winner more efficient. Through Oklahoma's first three games,
White has connected on 72 percent of his passes, including a 21-for-28 mark on
third downs. Not surprisingly, the Sooners' offense has shown tremendous
balance, averaging 252 passing yards and 249 rushing yards.
With Peterson chewing up yards on the ground, the Sooners have placed White
under center more and lined him up in the shotgun formation less in an attempt
to make play-action a bigger part of the offense. Oklahoma will come out running
against a Red Raider front seven that is undersized.
Once Peterson gets the running game going, it will open the door for White to
find WR Mark Clayton off play-action. If White continues to be accurate and can
hit Clayton in stride, Clayton has the second gear to provide this offense with
a couple of big plays.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Special teams
Texas Tech PK Alex Trlica lacks great leg strength, and his accuracy fades on
any field goal attempts longer than 30 yards. He has connected on one of three
field goal attempts thus far.
Punter Alex Reyes has a huge leg and is one of the best punters in the Big 12.
He is averaging 45.1 yards per attempt, including a long of 62 yards. Backup WR
Danny Amendola handles the punt return duties and gives the Raiders a home-run
threat in the return game.
The Sooners have similar issues at kicker with Trey DiCarlo lacking range.
However, DiCarlo at least has been accurate, unlike his counterpart. He has
connected on three of his four field goal attempts thus far.
Punter Blake Ferguson generally gets good hang time on his kicks and is
currently averaging 44.5 yards per attempt. Clayton and Perkins handle the
return duties. Perkins has made the biggest impact so far, averaging 15.0 yards
– including a long of 44 yards that went for a score – on eight attempts.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Bottom line
This game will be decided by balance. Oklahoma has it, and Texas Tech doesn't.
The emergence of Peterson has provided the Sooners with more options on the
offensive side of the ball, and they've been tougher to stop this year as a
result. He should have plenty of success working against a Red Raider front four
that lacks the size to match up with Oklahoma's offensive line. Once the running
game gets going, White will find Clayton off play-action, which could result in
a couple of big plays.
Texas Tech will come out with the intent of throwing the ball 60-65 times. The
chances of Cumbie being able to avoid mistakes working against a complex zone
defense are slim. Although the Raiders will put up some points, turnovers
eventually will allow the Sooners to open up a lead.

Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Texas Tech 31

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:20 PM

V.T./W.V.

By Tony Granieri
Scouts, Inc.

These two former conference rivals will meet for the 50th time when the No. 7
Mountaineers travel to Blacksburg. West Virginia holds a 28-20-1 advantage in
the series and has won the last two meetings, including a 28-7 decision at
Morgantown last year. Although this interstate rivalry no longer has conference
implications, there is still plenty at stake. There are regional bragging
rights, for starters, as the two campuses are separated by just 250 miles.

Who: West Virginia (7) at Virginia Tech
When: Sat., 12:00 noon ET, ESPN
Where: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Va.

The winner of this game is also presented with the Black Diamond Trophy, which
West Virginia has claimed it in each of the last two seasons but Virginia Tech
has won four times since it first was handed out in 1997.
In addition, West Virginia is listed as the underdog despite its Top 10 ranking.
One of the biggest reasons Virginia Tech is favored is the home field advantage
created by Lane Stadium's 65,000 seats. The Hokies own a 311-94-13 record in
Blacksburg. Can West Virginia rise to the challenge and take its place among the
nation's elite programs?
When West Virginia has the ball
West Virginia Run Offense vs. Virginia Tech Run Defense
West Virginia has an explosive one-two punch in RB Kay-Jay Harris and QB Rasheed
Marshall. The two have combined to average 174.0 rushing yards per game and have
been extremely difficult to stop.
However, they might have trouble breaking free against an aggressive Hokies'
defense that is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers will try to
run the read-option out of the shotgun, but Virginia Tech is loaded with speed,
and it should be able to keep Harris and Marshall from getting to the perimeter.

ILB Vince Hall and DE Darryl Tapp are both great athletes, and they will be
charged with keeping the dynamic duo bottled up. In addition, Marshall is not a
great passer, which will make stopping the run Virginia Tech's primary concern.
Look for the Hokies to play eight men in the box and confuse Marshall's option
reads with a number of run blitzes.
Advantage: Virginia Tech
West Virginia Pass Offense vs. Virginia Tech Pass Defense
Virginia Tech playing eight men in the box in an attempt to slow down the
Mountaineers' option-attack makes the secondary vulnerable to the big play, and
that could be a problem with WR Chris Henry coming to town.
With 23 receptions for 325 yards and six scores, Henry has clearly established
himself as Marshall's favorite target. He has great speed and he should have no
problem exploiting the single-coverage opportunities that will be afforded him
with the safeties playing close to the line.
Although Marshall isn't a great passer and struggles with accuracy, he does have
a strong arm and can be effective throwing downfield. The only problem is
Marshall's offensive line might have some trouble adjusting to the blitz-happy
Hokies.
Look for West Virginia to move the pocket around as a result. Getting Marshall
out on the perimeter through designed bootlegs and sprint-outs will help negate
the Hokies' blitz package. It also allows Marshall to make plays with his legs
as well as his arm.
Advantage: West Virginia
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Virginia Tech Run Offense vs. West Virginia Run Defense
Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer is shaking up his running-back rotation,
moving third-team tailback Mike Imoh into a starting role against the
Mountaineers.
After serving a three-game suspension for violating team rules, Imoh returned
last week against North Carolina State and ran 14 times for a team-best 74
yards. The 5-foot-7, 197-pound Imoh is a much quicker and shiftier back than
6-1, 232-pound sophomore Cedric Humes.
As a result, expect to see more production and versatility from the Hokies'
option-attack. Imoh already has the team's longest run thus far, and his
big-play potential might be the spark Virginia Tech's offense needs to compete
with the likes of West Virginia.
With an improved option attack at their disposal, the Hokies should be able to
put QB Bryan Randall in manageable third- down situations against a
Mountaineers' defense that is giving up an average of 122.2 rushing yards per
game.
Advantage: Draw
Virginia Tech pass offense vs. West Virginia pass defense
Virginia Tech's passing game revolves around the trio of WR Josh Hyman, TE Jeff
King and freshman playmaker Eddie Royal. Hyman leads the team with 10 receptions
for 198 yards and two scores, but Royal is the more physically-gifted of the two
and might be the best all-around athlete the Mountaineers have faced thus far.
He has great speed, and his 22.2 yards-per-catch average highlights his big-play
potential. The Hokies want to run the ball to re-establish some of the offensive
balance that has recently been lost, but there still will be some opportunities
for Randall to throw downfield.
Although the Mountaineers are only allowing 176.5 yards per game through the
air, they will have to play an extra defender in the box if the Hokies' option
attack gets off to a strong start. Look for Randall to find Royal off of an
option-fake when this happens.
However, none of that will matter unless Virginia Tech's pass protection
improves. Randall was running for his life against North Carolina State, as he
was sacked 10 times. The onus will fall on the offensive line to step up and
play with more consistency. In addition, expect to see some max-protect schemes
that keep a tight end or back in to help out.
Advantage: Draw
Special Teams
Mountaineers PK Brad Cooper has connected on 4 of his 6 field-goal attempts this
year and has range to connect from 50 yards and beyond.
P Phil Brady lacks Cooper's leg strength, but he is accurate and rarely shanks
an attempt. He'll have to get rid of the ball quickly, as the Hokies are
well-known for their ability to block kicks.
The return game is in great shape with Adam Jones pulling double-duty. Jones is
averaging 19.8 yards per punt return including a long of 76 yards that went for
a score and 27.4 yards per kickoff return.
Virginia Tech is well-known known for its strong special teams play, and the
Hokies appear to be solid in that area once again.
P Vinnie Burns is averaging 43.8 yards per punt and has the leg strength to kick
the Hokies out of trouble. PK Brandon Pace is 7 of 9 on field goal attempts, but
he did miss the potential game-winner last week.
The return duties belong to Royal. Although he has yet to break the big return,
he has explosive potential. While both of these groups are solid, the edge here
goes to Virginia Tech because of its ability to swing momentum with blocked
kicks.
Advantage: Virginia Tech
Bottom Line
West Virginia appears to be the better team on paper, but that doesn't always
transfer into wins, especially in road games against teams with a chip on their
shoulder.
The home-field advantage created by Lane Stadium will pose a difficult challenge
for the Mountaineers. Virginia Tech has been nearly impossible to beat at home
and will have added motivation as it looks to rebound from last week's
heartbreaking loss to North Carolina State.
In addition, the return of Imoh has given Virginia Tech's offense a much-needed
spark, and they should be a much more consistent team as a result.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Hokies' speed will corral the
Mountaineers' option attack and force Marshall to beat them through the air.
West Virginia will keep this game close with its defense and the big-play
ability of Henry, but one or two mistakes from Marshall or a miscue on special
teams will give the Hokies a big win.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, West Virginia 21

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:22 PM

Utah/N.M.

No. 14 UTAH UTES at
NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Albuquerque, N.M.
University Stadium
8:00 p.m. ET - ESPN2

When Utah has the ball: The balance of the Utes' offense is impressive. The
passing game was expected to be daunting on its own, but now that RB Marty
Johnson has re-established himself as one of the best backs in the Mountain West
Conference, teams no longer can play nickel and dime packages exclusively
against the Utes' spread attack. QB Alex Smith isn't the most physically gifted
quarterback in the nation, but he's one of the most intelligent. He understands
Urban Meyer's spread scheme and does a terrific job of executing it. Smith's
favorite target, WR Paris Warren, usually gets double-team attention, which will
leave New Mexico vulnerable in man-coverage against other receivers, such as
Steve Savory, John Madsden and Travis LaTendresse. The Lobos get a lot of
pressure from their blitzing linebackers, especially OLBs Nick Speegle and Mike
Moric, but Smith will exploit the Lobos if they leave too many zones vacated by
the blitz. If Marcus Parker (two sacks) and the Lobos' front-four isn't able to
get pressure on Smith without the blitz, this game could quickly turn into a
shootout.
When New Mexico has the ball: The New Mexico offense is all about the running
game, which features DonTrell Moore and D.D. Cox. While Moore is the better of
the two and rightfully gets all the accolades, Cox has just 26 fewer carries so
far this season. Moore is questionable for Friday night's game, which is a huge
blow to the offense. Cox does have good experience, but he averages nearly 1.5
yards less per carry than the more explosive Moore. Assuming Moore plays but
can't get as many carries, the team still will stick with the running game as
its primary feature, as they cannot afford to turn the ball over -- especially
early on. They also cannot afford to get behind early, which would force them to
get out of character by throwing the football too much. The Utes have been
susceptible to the run so far this season, allowing 158.7 yards per game on the
ground. Utah will have to load up the box to stop the run in hopes of putting
the ball in Kole McKaney's hands. If they are successful containing this
one-dimensional offense, McKaney, who is completing just 49.4 percent of his
attempts and has thrown four interceptions to just one touchdown, will be in for
a long evening.
Bottom line: New Mexico is by no means a pushover, especially at home, where it
beat Texas Tech. The Lobos will return home for the first time since that game,
and there's no question they'll be geared up to host MWC favorite Utah. But all
those intangibles and all that emotion will only take the Lobos so far against a
Utah team that regularly puts up more than 40 points per game, especially with
Moore questionable. The Utes are experienced and consistent on defense and
simply too balanced on offense for the Lobos to pull off the upset. The first
half will be hairy, but the Utes will pull away in the second.

Prediction: Utah 38, New Mexico 23

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:23 PM

Miami/G.T.

No. 4 MIAMI HURRICANES at
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS

Atlanta
Bobby Dodd Stadium
3:30 p.m. ET - ABC

When Miami has the ball: Miami simply cannot win the ACC if its passing game
doesn't improve. QB Brock Berlin showed some flashes of developing into a more
consistent passer and better leader in the team's opening win against Florida
State, but since then he has been very average. He doesn't have good mobility,
he holds the ball too long, and he makes too many ill-advised throws into
coverage. The return of star DE Eric Henderson should give the Yellow Jacket
pass rush a boost, and their secondary should hold up well against a Miami
receiving corps that has failed to make a big impact thus far. Once again, the
Hurricanes' fate on offense rests in their ability to wear down the opposition
with a strong running attack. If RBs Frank Gore and Tyrone Moss, who have
combined for 380 rushing yards in just three games, can get untracked early on
against a Georgia Tech defense that is allowing 170.7 yards per game on the
ground, the 'Canes should be able to pull away.
When Georgia Tech has the ball: The Hurricanes' defense, despite losing four
starters to the first round of the 2004 NFL draft, has proven that it ranks with
the elite in college football once again. CB Antrel Rolle will take Georgia
Tech's leading WR Nate Curry out of the game when he needs to, and he'll also
play a big role in run support against the one-two punch of RBs P.J. Daniels and
Chris Woods. The big key for the Yellow Jackets, however, is the play of QB
Reggie Ball. Ball is a terrific athlete who can exploit the Hurricanes' pass
rushers if they get too far upfield. He also has the arm strength to hit the
deep ball if Miami's safeties are overaggressive in run support. However, if
Ball doesn't improve his decision-making and accuracy from his last time out,
when he threw three interceptions against North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets
don't stand a chance.
Bottom line: Georgia Tech has been a difficult team to put a finger on. Its big
win at Clemson was followed by an embarrassing loss to UNC, and now the team has
had two weeks to stew. There is no question, however, that the Yellow Jackets
will be up for Saturday's visit from the 'Canes. Miami's defense can play with
any team in the nation. Its offense, though, is a whole different story. Berlin
continues to struggle with his accuracy, and no receiver has yet emerged as a
legitimate playmaker. The 'Canes eventually should be able to wear the Yellow
Jackets down with an overwhelming dose of RBs Gore and Moss, but not before Chan
Gailey's squad gives the two-touchdown favorites a scare.

Prediction: Miami 26, Georgia Tech 20

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:24 PM

Texas/Baylor

BAYLOR BEARS at
No. 5 TEXAS LONGHORNS

Austin, Texas
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
12:30 p.m. ET

When Baylor has the ball: QB Dane King had his best game to date against North
Texas (20-of 32, 218 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT). King continues to improve in Guy
Morriss' West Coast attack and clearly has become comfortable with WRs Dominique
Zeigler and Trent Shelton. However, that North Texas defense is the same unit on
which Texas rolled up 67 points. Look for the Bears to spread Texas out in an
attempt to neutralize the Longhorns' defensive speed, but with no chance of
running the football, Baylor won't have the balance it needs in this game. With
OLB Derrick Johnson and DS Michael Huff swarming underneath and down the middle
of the field, King can't afford to throw the ball up for grabs. If the Longhorns
can get pressure on King, it could make for a long afternoon.
When Texas has the ball: This is the last chance for QB Vincent Young to
fine-tune his passing skills before the Red River Shootout. With RB Cedric
Benson and the power running game, the Longhorns should be able to absolutely
manhandle Baylor's undersized 4-2 scheme that features five defensive backs.
Young also should have a big game running the ball within of the "shotgun read
option" scheme. But the Longhorns must work on improving their consistency in
the air as they get ready for Oklahoma the following week. Young has established
a great rapport with his tight ends, David Thomas and Bo Scaife, but he needs to
use this game to work on the timing with his inexperienced wide receivers,
especially Tony Jeffery and Limas Sweed.
Bottom line: With one eye on the showdown with Oklahoma, it wouldn't be a
surprise if the Longhorns failed to play to their potential in this game.
However, while they might not beat Baylor by 40, they should comfortably take
care of business, much like they did against Rice last week. The Longhorns need
to show better balance on offense and need to get Young as much work in the
passing game as possible. But if they get out to a big lead in this game, expect
coach Mack Brown to pull his key players to keep them fresh and healthy for next
week's trip to Dallas.

Prediction: Texas 40, Baylor 13

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:25 PM

OSU/NW

No. 6 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES at
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Evanston, Ill.
Ryan Field
9 p.m. ET - ESPN2

When Ohio State has the ball: The Buckeyes always will be limited offensively.
By nature it is a unit that favors a conservative style. They lack a premier
running back, and QB Justin Zwick continues to learn on the job. However, with a
big, physical offensive line and with two tough running backs in Lydell Ross and
Maurice Hall, the Buckeyes should be able to wear the Wildcats down. And, when
Northwestern starts to cheat their safeties up to create better numbers in run
support, Zwick can take advantage of WR Santonio Holmes' speed and vertical
playmaking ability.
When Northwestern has the ball: Quarterback Brett Basanez is not likely to play
after suffering a sprained right shoulder in last week's loss at Minnesota. His
replacement, Chris Malleo, ran the ball well when he filled in but is only a
freshman and does not seem to have a lot of confidence in his throwing ability.
The Wildcats will look to spread Ohio State out in order to run the football
against six-man fronts. But despite the absence of DC Dustin Fox, the Buckeyes
are much more talented in their secondary than the Wildcats are at receiver, so
they can take chances in coverage in order to match up vs. the run. Noah Herron
has carried the majority of the load for Northwestern and is averaging a solid
4.9 yards per carry, but Ohio State should smother him in this game.
Bottom line: Northwestern DT Luis Castillo took a shot at Ohio State this week
by calling its offense "mediocre." While "mediocre" might actually be a
compliment, it wasn't smart to wake a sleeping giant. The Buckeyes are coming
off a bye week and could have been looking ahead to their rematch with
Wisconsin, which last season handed them their first loss in more than a year.
But don't count on it now. The Buckeye defense should exploit Malleo in his
first start, and their mediocre offense should have its best performance to
date. Thanks in part to Castillo's comments, this could be a rout.

Prediction: Ohio State 33, Northwestern 10

**wayne1218** · 09-30-2004, 06:26 PM

Cal./Oreg St

No. 10 CALIFORNIA BEARS at
OREGON STATE BEAVERS

Corvallis, Ore.
Reser Stadium
4:00 p.m. ET

When Oregon State has the ball: Oregon State must win the turnover battle to
pull off the upset, which means QB Derrick Anderson has to do a better job of
protecting the football. Derrick Wright carries the load on the ground, but the
Beavers are throwing the ball nearly twice as much as they are running it, and
Wright is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry. Without the balance that Stephen
Jackson (Rams) provided him a year ago, Anderson is under more pressure to
perform against defenses that are geared up to stop the pass instead of ganging
up to stop the run. Anderson has the receiving weapons in WR Mike Haas and TE
Joe Newton to move the ball against a Cal defense that might be a little bit
overrated against the pass because of the run-oriented teams it has played so
far (Air Force and New Mexico State). However, Anderson is going to be under
heavy pressure against a pass rush led by DT Lorenzo Alexander and DE Ryan
Riddle, so he'll need to make much better decisions in this game than he has so
far this season and throughout his career.
When Cal has the ball: QB Aaron Rodgers has put up impressive numbers so far,
but he also has looked inconsistent at times. The emergence of RB J.J. Arrington
has helped to balance things out, but if the Golden Bears are to avoid an upset,
Rodgers must be sharp and make sound decisions when trying to feed the ball to
wide outs Jonathan Makonnen and Geoff McArthur against one of the Pac-10's best
cornerback tandems in Aric Williams and Brandon Browner.
Bottom line: This has the potential to be the biggest trap game of the week.
After rolling up 97 points on Air Force and New Mexico State, Jeff Tedford's
team has sat idle for two weeks as a result of the postponement of the Southern
Miss game and a scheduled bye week last week. Now the Golden Bears must travel
to Corvallis to take on a dangerous Oregon State team. The Beavers are 1-3 but
are not nearly as bad as the record indicates. Following two weeks off and with
a trip to USC for one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season
looming a week away, it will be difficult for Cal to avoid a slow start here.

Prediction: California 29, Oregon State 26

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