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Yesterday morning, I was scanning the opening MLB lines at my offshore book. One jumped out at me: the Phillies/Pirates total was 8.5ov. This struck me as odd, since Oliver Perez is as solid an under pitcher as they come, and the Pirates aren't hitting much of anything these days. Plus, isn't Eric Milton usually pretty solid at home?
I checked back later in the afternoon and noticed something else: the 5 inning total was 4.5, with the over -130. Who in their right mind would lay that kind of juice to get a 5 inning over with these two teams? Maybe something was up, I thought--like smart money coming in early on the over for both the game and the 5 inning total.
I checked back around a half-hour before game-time. By now, the public money was presumably coming in, and the game total was now 8un. The 5 inning total was now 4 with -110 juice on either side. Remembering the line movement I had witnessed early on, I put in a wager on the 5th inning over.
Well, if you watched that game, it wasn't even close. The score was 2-0 Pirates after 5, and although Pitt got it to 6-1 in the top of the ninth, it never really scared 8.
Which leads me to my question: do you think sportsbooks try to psych out bettors by putting up artificially juiced lines? Like I said, who in their right mind would lay down $130 to win $100 on a 5 inning over between these teams, 5 hours before game time and before information was known as to wind direction, weather, etc.? Did I get deked into thinking a big bet was placed on the 5 inning over?
I checked back later in the afternoon and noticed something else: the 5 inning total was 4.5, with the over -130. Who in their right mind would lay that kind of juice to get a 5 inning over with these two teams? Maybe something was up, I thought--like smart money coming in early on the over for both the game and the 5 inning total.
I checked back around a half-hour before game-time. By now, the public money was presumably coming in, and the game total was now 8un. The 5 inning total was now 4 with -110 juice on either side. Remembering the line movement I had witnessed early on, I put in a wager on the 5th inning over.
Well, if you watched that game, it wasn't even close. The score was 2-0 Pirates after 5, and although Pitt got it to 6-1 in the top of the ninth, it never really scared 8.
Which leads me to my question: do you think sportsbooks try to psych out bettors by putting up artificially juiced lines? Like I said, who in their right mind would lay down $130 to win $100 on a 5 inning over between these teams, 5 hours before game time and before information was known as to wind direction, weather, etc.? Did I get deked into thinking a big bet was placed on the 5 inning over?
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