question about buying points???

[kleipman]

Always buy when getting points to "3", "7", "10 and "11". Always but when giving off of "3", "7" and 10" an in college "14".

[neyland]

kleipman...how did you come to the opinion that buying on/off 11 is a winning strategy...or any of those #'s, for that matter?

[timster]

First of all it is always more profitable to buy onto a key number rather than off of a key number; because onto you are saving 110 by pushing, off of you are saving "winning" 100.
I did the math, using the stats above, so here are the facts overall for buying onto the following numbers assuming:
-50% of the bets that would have not fallen on the number lose and the the other 50% win.
-laying 110, if you lay say 107 the break even point goes down by about a cent

3 - the break even point is spending an extra 24 cents for the half point
7 - the break even point is spending an extra 20 cents for the half point
10 - the break even point is spending an extra 15 cents for the half point.
all the other key numbers it is never worthwhile to buy the points since I have not seen it available for less than 10 cents.
Therefore, it is wise to buy onto 3 for 20 cents or less...
onto 7 for 15 cents or less
and 10 for 10 cents or less
...that being said it does not take into account things like a cappers gut feeling or the expectation of a closer game with a low total with a line of 3 where it may fall on the number 3 more often than the average of 9.9%

[heleanth]

The correct answer to the question is that if you think the game is going to end up so close to the line that you need to buy a half point, you shouldn't be betting the game anyway!!

[casheasy]

Wrong

It's called insurance. I'm sure some of you that are arguing against buying the 1/2 had 10 as a line yesterday in the Denver game. If you were smart like me, you'd have won. I bought it to 10.5 and won with the Chargers.

It has nothing to do with you thinking it will be that close to the line. 10 is a KEY NUMBER.

ALWAYS buy the half.

[BiloxiUMreb]

the math...historical

485 games on lines of 2.5 / 3/ 3.5

Take the 2.5 point dog and buy up to 3 on every one.
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 losers into pushes...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 266.5 - 0...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 29,315...
Net Loss of 7,465

With the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 - 48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Loss of 4,370
__________________________________________________ _

Take the 3.5 point fav and buy down to 3 on every one
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 losers into pushes...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 266.5 - 0...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 29,315 ...
Net Loss of 7,465

With the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 - 48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Loss of 4,370
__________________________________________________

Take the 3 point dog and buy up to 3.5 on every one
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 pushes into winners...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 -48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 24,035 ...
Net Loss of 2,185

With the buy:

266.5 - 218.5 - 0...Win 26,650 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Win of 430
__________________________________________________ _

Take the 3 point fav and buy down to 2.5 on every one
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 pushes into winners...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 - 48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 24,035 ...
Net Loss of 2,185

With the buy:

266.5 - 218.5 - 0...Win 26,650 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Win of 430
__________________________________________________ _

Based on the historical performance of the NFL, the resuilts above should be obvious

[casheasy]

Thanks for the research, biloxi!

As you suggest, this isn't Rocket Science!

[frankb03]

My contention has always been this. If buying points had any advantage for the player Vegas would not offer the option.

It takes discipline to accept the 1/2 point loses and move on. With every 1/2 point loss is an equal number of 1/2 point wins. Bettors remember and ache over the loses. They quickly forget the wins.

That being said. Buying on certain numbers is to the players advantage.

[casheasy]

That's the point

3,7,10,14....

You don't buy a 8.5 point dog to plus nine and you don't buy a 5.5 point fave down to minus 5. People that do that are just bone headed.

[griswold]

What a great thread!

Just outstanding and well-thought out posts on all sides. This is why I keep coming back to bettorschat.com. All of my thoughts on this issue have been covered in one way or another, but it's nice to get away from the juvenile posts that occasionally show up and read a thread that is filled with extremely intelligent thought and analysis.

By the way, I would have had a big winning day yesterday if I had bought points. Unfortunatley, I would have had to buy about 20 of them for each game (Yesterday was a blood bath for me)

[BiloxiUMreb]

Funny Gris

I still cant quit laughing....Buy those 20'....VERY funny, Gris

[MNCapper]

Some good discussions on here, some bettors like the piece of mind on buying a 1/2-1 point. I rarely use it except for teams that play alot of close games like Ohio St and I'll only buy from 3.5 down to 3. Will accept a push instead of a loss, but only on teams that play alot of close games. Hope this helps. Good luck on your plays!!

[shorty3830]

thanks

very good discussion, basically what i was looking for.........good work on everyones part

b

[shorty3830]

one more thing

i think it goes without saying that instead of betting a dog of 1, 1.5, or 2, always bet the money line,,,,,,,,,

the question then becomes, at 2.5, what do you do?? for me, in college i take the dog on the money line and in the pros, i will buy up to 3


good night
b