question about buying points???

[shorty3830]

Ok, i would like to classify myself here as a veteran, hopefully i have earned that right, but i have a question that may seem a bit 'rookieish" (nice word i know)

i have seen the cream of the crop here post picks which involved buying points...........historically, in football, i have only bought points in the nfl on or off 3, 7, or 10 and in college, on or off 7........i do not think i have ever bought in any other case.....

would someone please advise if i am doing something wrong and should buy on other numbers?? also, i have never bought and made my odds worse than -120, is that a good rule??

homer, i saw both you and ez recommend buying this weekend, but you did it on 3 and ez did it to 10........and by the way, thanks to both of you because i had those games because of y'all

thanks
good luck
b

[casheasy]

ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS

Always buy the 1/2 on or off of 7, 10, 14 in either college or pro.
I also do it on or off 3 with my local, because he only charges an extra 10% no matter what the line. But with sportsbooks that charge more, you have to weigh the cost, although you're pretty dumb if you ever call in a bet and say, "Give me the dog +2.5...."

There will be some loser that comes in here and tries to tell you that it isn't worth it to buy on any of these numbers because there's only been so many games that it actually mattered.

What they are forgetting is that for every game you win or push by doing this, you get yourself another 10 LOSSES at the added juice before you're even. Believe me, it matters to have -6.5 as opposed to -7.

[neyland]

you should never buy points...period. For it to matter on or off the 3 in the NFL (assuming 20%) 20% of NFL games would have to end on 3. The real number is 14%. And on any other number it's an even worse proposition. And with finals clustering around the number much less frequently in college...buying points on any number is a terrible play. You can call me a loser if you want, but the proof is in the odds...and they're not good when you buy points.

[bgh2003]

Buy off the key numbers in football (3, 6, 7, 10, 14). The odds are strong that the final margin will land on one of those figures. If you see a line like 3.5, 6.5, etc. and you want to take the favorite, you should seriously consider paying an extra 10 cents to get a whole number.

Otherwise, buying points is an iffy proposition. . . and while it might save you once in a while, it adds some extra sting to a loss if you bought a hook and still lost the play, at the cost of -120 rather than -110.

One other thing: NEVER buy points in basketball.

[lefty19]

I thought I would post this. It is NOT my material but it is from another forum from a very well respected Moderator. I hope this helps:

---------------------------------------------------------------------


Thought this would offer up a nice discussion as I had archived this one awhile back....


Over the years we often share insightful research with our readers that may help in the enjoyment, understanding of and profiting from the football experience. This week we address the issue of key numbers – numbers that occur most often in terms of NFL victory margins. ‘Key numbers’ are often misunderstood. Let’s take a look at what we mean.



The number ‘3' is the most common margin of victory. But do you know to what extent and how often it occurs? The answer is that over 15% of all NFL games since 1981 have been decided by exactly 3 points. That’s over 1 game in 7. Put another way, at least two games each week can be expected to be decided by exactly 3 points. That is by far clearly the most common margin in the NFL -- almost double the next most common margin, 7 (just under 8% of all games).




It is a frequent discussion as to whether a bettor should ‘buy’ the extra half-point in games involving ‘key’ numbers. For instance, if you wish to play an underdog that is currently listed at + 3 ½ you have the ability to get + 4 on that team by laying 6-5 (12 to 10) instead of the normal 11-10. Buying that extra half point increases your break even point from 52.38% (at 11-10) to 54.56% (at 6-5). Likewise, if a favorite is - 6 ½ you could buy the extra half-point and lay only - 6.



Most people are aware of the importance of the number ‘3' and impulsively answer ‘yes’ when questioned as to whether they should ‘buy down’ when playing a favorite a half-point away from a key number and that they should ‘buy up’ when playing a similarly situated underdog. But is this the correct thing to do? Should you lay the extra ‘vig’ to buy that half point? Or are you giving away too much? Let’s examine the issue.



The proper question is not how often does a final margin result in 3, 7, 6 or other key numbers. Rather, the proper question is how often does a 3 ½ point favorite win by exactly 3? Or, how often does a 2 ½ point underdog lose by exactly 3 points? Those two questions concern the changing of potential losses into pushes. But you can also ask how often does a 3 point favorite win by exactly 3 points (so that buying down to - 2 ½ changes a push into a win)? Or how often does that 4 point underdog lose by exactly 4 points (so that buying to + 4 ½ turns that push into a win).



First, here are the top 10 key numbers. These ten numbers combine for over 60% of final margins in NFL games over the past 23 seasons. The numbers are listed with their frequency of occurrence.



3 - 15.29%
10 - 5.84%
4 - 5.49%
1 - 4.38%
17 - 3.86%
7 - 7.86%
6 - 5.76%
14 - 4.61%
2 - 4.01%
11 - 3.39%




We’ve studied the past 6 seasons to see how often games within a half-point of a key number fall on that key number. Note that while over 15% of all games land on 3, some of the games are won by the Underdog and in most of the games the line was other than 2 ½, 3 or 3 ½. That’s what we’re trying to analyze.

Point Spread # Games # Landing on Key and %




½, 1 or 1 ½ # Games 99 Land On 1...0....0.00%

1 ½, 2 or 2 ½ # Games 172 Land on 2..6.....3.49%

2 ½, 3 or 3 ½ # Games 485 Land on 3...48....9.90%

3 ½, 4 or 4 ½ # Games 251 Land on 4..3......1.20%

5 ½, 6 or 6 ½ # Games 193 Land on 6..3.......1.55%

6 ½, 7 or 7 ½ # Games 253 Land on 7..21...8.30%
9 ½, 10 or 10 ½ Games 94 Land on 10..6.....6.38%

13 ½, 14 or 14 ½ Games 31 Land on 14 1....3.23%




As you can see, with the exception of the key numbers ‘3', ‘7' and ‘10' the percentage of times the ‘key pointspread’ and the ‘key result’ coincide is quite small. For example, of the 193 times a team was favored by 5 ½, 6 or 6 ½ points that team won by exactly 6 points just three times, or 1.55% of the time.

[neyland]

those numbers pretty clearly show that buying points is a bookie's dream. casheasy...how often would a 6.5 point underdog have to lose by 7...on a percentage basis, to make that a winning strategy?

[kleipman]

Better go back to math 101.

[neyland]

really? How is that? Show me where I'm wrong

[BiloxiUMreb]

neyland

I am working on your last question, but I need to know more. Is your ?? dealing with locals that charge only an additional 10% on the "3" or are you talking offshore where onto/off of "3" costs you an extra 20%???

EDIT:: Will be away for 15 minutes but will await your reply

[neyland]

at 10% it's a winner on/off 3.

[BiloxiUMreb]

Logic Flaw

I'm working on a more detailed post offline so I can make sure it is easy enough to follow and will post my take on this when I've finished. However, with the lone exception of BGH, there are other factors influencing this discussion that only BGH has mentioned. By way of example....lets assume (and I stress only for discussion purposes) that 14% of all NFL games fall on 3. Ergo, 86% of them don't. Lets also assume that of those 86% you by the half and you win half and lose half. It follows, therefore, that you've paid no juice on half of them and 20% (at least) juice on the losers. On those 84%, you've got an effective juice rate of 10%. Throw out the whole "buying points' scenario, your equivalent juice rate would be only 5%, i.e., 42 winners at no juice and 42 losers at 10% juice. Yet another example of the importance of being able to pick winners...duh. The fact of the matter is that you WILL be blown out of alot of games EVEN when you buy the hook and your juice on those games will be at least double.

Just as important, however, is the fact that the ONLY games in which you care whether the number actually winds up on 3 or not are those with lines at 2', 3, or 3'. Now Lefty's post starts to hit on this issue, but not in complete detail. That's what I'm trying to do in my next post. I'm not tryig to be a know it all, but hopefully my next post will be somewhat enlightening.

[neyland]

actually upon reflection It's a winning strategy on 3, 7, and 10 in the pros if I'm figuring correctly...

484 games at +2.5...242-242 =(24.2)

Buy it to 3...242-194=(10.2)


252 games at +6.5...126-126=(12.6)

Buy it to 7......126-105=(5)


94 games at +9.5.........47-47=(4.7)

Buy it to 10..........47-41=(2.2)

[shorty3830]

my own experience

i appreciate all the input and i have to say this::

i have a lot of respect for some of the cappers here that are buying points, and i myself do it on certain numbers, and although i do not know my percentage, i think it is a wise move.

neyland, i understand that if you go by strict percentages, perhaps it may not be a good move, but it is impossible to do that because you are going by a larger sample than the games i am wagering on------->what i mean is this::like homer and ez , we are selectively choosing the games we choose to buy on.......for example, i will not buy on every game where the line is 3 or 7, i will probably do it on games that i think are more likely to end that way........like an nfl game where i expect a low score as opposed to one i think could be higher scoring, make sense?? i appreciate the stats, but i have to agree with some of the others that suggest doing it, ONLY because i do not do it on every game!

also, as we all know, like anything else in life, gambling is about confidence and i get a better feeling in games where i but the point..........if i lose, and i lose an extra 10%, i rarely think i am an idiot for doing it, whereas if i get a push or even a way, i feel great about it

just my thoughts
b

[checkers]

THought this might help ...

Over the years we often share insightful research with our readers that may help in the enjoyment, understanding of and profiting from the football experience. This week we address the issue of key numbers – numbers that occur most often in terms of NFL victory margins. ‘Key numbers’ are often misunderstood. Let’s take a look at what we mean.



The number ‘3' is the most common margin of victory. But do you know to what extent and how often it occurs? The answer is that over 15% of all NFL games since 1981 have been decided by exactly 3 points. That’s over 1 game in 7. Put another way, at least two games each week can be expected to be decided by exactly 3 points. That is by far clearly the most common margin in the NFL -- almost double the next most common margin, 7 (just under 8% of all games).




It is a frequent discussion as to whether a bettor should ‘buy’ the extra half-point in games involving ‘key’ numbers. For instance, if you wish to play an underdog that is currently listed at + 3 ½ you have the ability to get + 4 on that team by laying 6-5 (12 to 10) instead of the normal 11-10. Buying that extra half point increases your break even point from 52.38% (at 11-10) to 54.56% (at 6-5). Likewise, if a favorite is - 6 ½ you could buy the extra half-point and lay only - 6.



Most people are aware of the importance of the number ‘3' and impulsively answer ‘yes’ when questioned as to whether they should ‘buy down’ when playing a favorite a half-point away from a key number and that they should ‘buy up’ when playing a similarly situated underdog. But is this the correct thing to do? Should you lay the extra ‘vig’ to buy that half point? Or are you giving away too much? Let’s examine the issue.



The proper question is not how often does a final margin result in 3, 7, 6 or other key numbers. Rather, the proper question is how often does a 3 ½ point favorite win by exactly 3? Or, how often does a 2 ½ point underdog lose by exactly 3 points? Those two questions concern the changing of potential losses into pushes. But you can also ask how often does a 3 point favorite win by exactly 3 points (so that buying down to - 2 ½ changes a push into a win)? Or how often does that 4 point underdog lose by exactly 4 points (so that buying to + 4 ½ turns that push into a win).



First, here are the top 10 key numbers. These ten numbers combine for over 60% of final margins in NFL games over the past 23 seasons. The numbers are listed with their frequency of occurrence.



3 - 15.29%
10 - 5.84%
4 - 5.49%
1 - 4.38%
17 - 3.86%
7 - 7.86%
6 - 5.76%
14 - 4.61%
2 - 4.01%
11 - 3.39%




We’ve studied the past 6 seasons to see how often games within a half-point of a key number fall on that key number. Note that while over 15% of all games land on 3, some of the games are won by the Underdog and in most of the games the line was other than 2 ½, 3 or 3 ½. That’s what we’re trying to analyze.

Point Spread # Games # Landing on Key and %




½, 1 or 1 ½ # Games 99 Land On 1...0....0.00%

1 ½, 2 or 2 ½ # Games 172 Land on 2..6.....3.49%

2 ½, 3 or 3 ½ # Games 485 Land on 3...48....9.90%

3 ½, 4 or 4 ½ # Games 251 Land on 4..3......1.20%

5 ½, 6 or 6 ½ # Games 193 Land on 6..3.......1.55%

6 ½, 7 or 7 ½ # Games 253 Land on 7..21...8.30%
9 ½, 10 or 10 ½ Games 94 Land on 10..6.....6.38%

13 ½, 14 or 14 ½ Games 31 Land on 14 1....3.23%




As you can see, with the exception of the key numbers ‘3', ‘7' and ‘10' the percentage of times the ‘key pointspread’ and the ‘key result’ coincide is quite small. For example, of the 193 times a team was favored by 5 ½, 6 or 6 ½ points that team won by exactly 6 points just three times, or 1.55% of the time.

[BiloxiUMreb]

Neyland

Factor in the other LOSSES at 2.5 (with double juice) when your side gets beaten by 20!!! THIS IS IMPORTANT STUFF!!!!!