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**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:16 PM

Take 2: Steelers vs. Dolphins

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Steelers and Dolphins. Now they're back with a
second look.
Expect Pittsburgh RB Jerome Bettis, who failed to record a carry last
week, to play a bigger role than he has the previous two games. RDT Larry
Chester's season-ending knee injury and LDT Tim Bowens' back problems have
significantly weakened Miami's interior run defense. Bettis has the size
and powerful style of running to take advantage. Getting him more involved
will keep Staley fresh, and there should be plenty of carries to go
around. The Steelers will want to focus on the running game in rookie QB
Ben Roethlisberger's first start.
Miami benched LOT Wade Smith in favor of Damion McIntosh, who has returned
from offseason ankle injury. The inconsistent Smith has struggled to hold
up on an island in pass protection and he failed to adjust to an audible
last week. McIntosh may be an improvement but isn't the answer to the
Dolphins' problems, as he lacks ideal initial quickness. He too will have
problems working against speed rushers. Look for the Steelers to attack
the left side of Miami's offensive line with some blitzes. If the Dolphins
don't use a back or tight end to help McIntosh, QB A.J. Feeley could be in
for another long day.

GordonMiami is ranked dead last in both average rushing yards per game and
average yards per carry. Part of the reason the Dolphins' running game has
sputtered is because several new starters are still adjusting to new
teammates. Miami acquired RB Lamar Gordon in a trade with the Rams just
before the season opener and the offensive line has undergone a massive
overhaul. While St. Louis uses similar terminology, allowing him to pick
up the offense quicker, Gordon is still learning to read the blocks off
his offensive line, fullbacks and tight ends. He won't be as aggressive
hitting the hole and won't break many long runs until he gets more
comfortable. With the offensive line still jelling and Miami working
against a 3-4-fornt for the first time this year, look for Gordon's
struggles to continue against a tough Pittsburgh run defense.
Steelers head coach Bill Cowher decided to fly the team down to Miami on
Friday night rather than Saturday in an effort to avoid Hurricane Jeanne.
The league had suggested Pittsburgh leave early Saturday morning but
apparently some players were concerned about flying in poor weather. While
the game could be moved up a day, it will probably be played on Sunday.
Twenty-four hours may not seem like much time, but changing the game to
Saturday would have to benefit the Dolphins. The Steelers want all the
time they can get to prepare Roethlisberger.
Don't be surprised to see Pittsburgh No. 3 WR Antwaan Randle El, who
played quarterback at the college level, under center if Roethlisberger
goes down with an injury. Backup Brian St. Pierre could see time as well
but St. Pierre should struggle to move the ball through the air working
against Miami's tough pass defense. Although Randle El may not have much
success throwing the ball either, his elusiveness and ability to avoid
pressure could cause some problems for the Dolphins.

WardWatch for Miami to cover Steelers WR Hines Ward with CB Sam Madison at
times and expect an absolute war when it happens. Both players play with
mean streaks and they will be extremely physical working against each
other. That said, Ward may have the advantage because of his quickness and
the league focus on cracking down on illegal contact.
Pittsburgh LOT Marvel Smith had some problems adjusting to the blitz last
week and Dolphins defensive coordinator Jim Bates will bring additional
pressure at times. Smith has been caught setting up too far outside in an
effort to take away the corner, which creates a clearer path to the
quarterback for any blitzing linebacker or safety. The Steelers can help
him by using a tight end or back to chip RDE Jason Taylor. With the backs
and tight ends giving Taylor a push inside, Smith shouldn't have to set up
as wide and he should be in better position to pick up the blitz as a
result.
With Miami getting off to a slow start and the possibility of bad weather,
the Dolphins may not get a large home crowd and that would hurt their
chances. Last week Roethlisberger made an incorrect hand signal causing
his receiver to run the wrong route and resulting in an interception. If
Roethlisberger can communicate with his receivers as well as his offensive
line verbally, Pittsburgh's offense is less likely to make a mistake.

Special Teams

Miami PK Olindo Mare connected on two field goal attempts from beyond 40
yards last week and showed signs of returning to his old, impressive form.
Steelers PK Jeff Reed missed a 48-yard field goal attempt wide right last
week, so Mare gives the Dolphins a slight advantage here. However, keep an
eye on the field, as it's still baseball season. Dirt plus rain means
terrible kicking conditions.
With so many questions at quarterback, the return game and winning the
battle of field position is critical. Pittsburgh RS Randle El is always a
threat in the open field and will take advantage of any breakdowns in
Miami's cover teams. The Dolphins signed rookie Wes Walker to replace RS
Lamont Brightful, who it released last week, so they have more questions
than answers.

Matchups

Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward vs. Miami CB Sam Madison

Miami RB Lamar Gordon vs. Pittsburgh LILB James Farrior

Pittsburgh LOT Marvel Smith vs. Miami RDE Jason Taylor

Miami TE Randy McMichael vs. Pittsburgh SS Troy Polamalu

Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt vs. Miami defensive
coordinator Jim Bates

Prediction: Dolphins 17, Steelers 14

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:17 PM

Take 2: Bears vs. Vikings

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Bears and Vikings. Now they're back with a
second look.
Chicago's secondary will be without starting CBs Charles Tillman and Jerry
Azumah as well as starting FS Mike Brown. Tillman fractured a bone in a
knee joint, Azumah is still recovering from disc surgery and Brown
ruptured an Achilles' tendon last week. The Bears had such little faith in
their backup corners that they started backup SS Bobby Gray at corner last
week. Depth is also a significant issue, as Chicago will now play SS Mike
Green at nickelback when Minnesota spreads the field with its
three-receiver sets. Gray and Todd Johnson, who is expected to replace
Brown despite playing in just two games thus far, will line up at safety
when Green moves to corner. With so many injuries forcing inexperienced
players to make significant contributions, expect the Bears' to stay
conservative. Blitzing would leave the secondary vulnerable to the big
play and Vikings WR Randy Moss is more than capable of taking advantage of
those opportunities.
Chicago will run its base cover-2 defense for the majority of this game,
but defensive coordinator Ron Rivera has to keep Minnesota's off balance
by occasionally changing the coverage. One of the ways Rivera can get away
from the cover-2 and still protect against the big play will be to bracket
Moss with a corner underneath and a safety over the top. If executed
properly, this approach should limit Moss' production. The key is slowing
Moss down at the line of scrimmage ; the corner should be very aggressive
because he knows he has help behind him. While Moss has great speed, he
doesn't have great initial quickness, so he needs to get his momentum to
get going to be truly effective. The linebackers can also help out by
getting quality depth on their drops, making it more difficult for Moss to
run a slant across the middle.

Claiborne
The Vikings are considering moving SLB Chris Claiborne to the weak side,
replacing Claiborne with Keith Newman and taking WLB Dontarrious Thomas
out of the starting lineup. Thomas has struggled recently, and Minnesota
doesn't want the rookie to get overwhelmed mentally. That said, Thomas
could make a significant impact on this game even if he doesn't start, as
he will see time on certain passing downs. Chicago QB Rex Grossman likes
to dump the ball off to his backs. Although Thomas doesn't have great
change-of-direction skills, he is fast and shows good instincts for a
rookie. If he starts breaking on Grossman's passes in the flat, Grossman
will have to throw downfield more, significantly increasing the Vikings'
chances of generating a turnover.
Minnesota ROT Mike Rosenthal will miss the remainder of the season with a
foot injury, and the Vikings are to going to rotate Adam Haayer and rookie
Nat Dorsey at right tackle. Both will struggle with the initial quickness
and speed of Bears LDE Adewale Ogunleye when Minnesota drops back to pass.
Vikings offensive coordinator Scott Linehan will help his right tackles
out with a tight end or back on certain plays, but Minnesota will leave
them on an island at other times. In addition, TE Jim Kleinsasser
sustained a season-ending knee injury last week and backup Jermaine
Wiggins will miss at least this week, if not longer, with a hand injury.
Either Sean Berton or Richard Angulo will start. Both are inexperienced,
so don't be surprised to see the Vikings' max-protect schemes break down
occasionally. Ogunleye must take advantage of those opportunities, as the
Bears need their front four to apply consistent pressure.
Vikings head coach Mike Tice has made it clear that the team needs more
from NT Chris Hovan. Hovan has been caught out of position far too much
and his technique has been inconsistent at best. It's not a matter of
effort but a matter of staying fundamentally sound. While Hovan plays with
a nonstop motor, he has to work on staying focused and maintaining his gap
responsibilities. Part of the problem may be that Hovan played on the same
defensive line as John Randle when he was a rookie in 2000. Randle is
well-known for flying upfield with reckless abandon and disrupting plays
in the backfield. The difference is Randle made enough big plays to
justify his style of play.
One of the ways Chicago offensive coordinator Terry Shea will try to keep
Minnesota off balance is to bunch FB Bryan Johnson, TE Desmond Clark and
TE Dustin Lyman to one side. The Bears will then shift from that set to a
traditional two-tight end set. If the Vikings react to the original bunch
by playing their nickel personnel, the Bears should have an easier time
running the ball. In the event that Minnesota doesn't react, Shea can pass
out of that set.
Chicago's one-gap scheme is predicated on the defensive line making plays
in the backfield, but the Bears must play with better discipline. They
dropped off-sides last week, and Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper will use some
hard counts to try to draw them off again, as this game will be in
Minnesota.
Grossmann is showing improved poise in the pocket and is slowly gaining
the confidence of his teammates. But he can't try to do too much. The
Bears should have success moving the ball with the run and a short passing
attack, so Grossman shouldn't try to force anything downfield. He must
also be willing throw the ball when the pocket starts to collapse,
something he failed to do last week.

Special Teams

Chicago PK Paul Edinger missed a field-goal attempt last week and had his
only other field-goal attempt blocked in the season opener. With a
first-year starter under center and being on the road, the Bears must take
advantage of any chances they get to put points on the board. The blocking
must improve, and Edinger needs to get back on track.
Minnesota PK Morten Andersen is almost a lock on field-goal attempts
inside 40 yards; he connected on a 42-yard attempt last week. While he
doesn't have great leg strength, the Vikings should have no problem
getting him into range this week.

Matchups

Minnesota ROT Adam Haayer or Nat Dorsey vs. Chicago LDE Adewale Ogunleye.

Chicago RB Thomas Jones vs. Minnesota MLB E.J. Henderson.

Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper vs. Chicago defensive coordinator Ron
Rivera.

Chicago ROT John Tait vs. Minnesota LDE Kenechi Udeze.

Minnesota No. 3 WR Kelly Campbell vs. Chicago nickelback Mike Green.

Prediction: Bears 34, Vikings 21

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:18 PM

Take 2: Browns vs. Giants

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Browns and Giants. Now they're back with a
second look.
Cleveland RB Lee Suggs took part in most of Wednesday's practice and is
expected to split carries with William Green. The Browns' running game has
been sluggish without Suggs, who missed the first two games with a neck
stinger, but it should be more productive with his return. Look for
Cleveland to play a ball-control offense with Suggs and Green combining
for 25-30 carries. With a banged up secondary to protect, the Browns will
want to keep the ball away from Giants QB Kurt Warner and his dangerous
receiving corps.
Cleveland's defense will blitz Warner all day, as he has historically
struggled in the face of pressure. One of the most effective ways to
disrupt Warner's rhythm and get him off balance is blitzing up the middle,
as he lacks the mobility to escape. With the Giants' interior offensive
line continuing to struggle, the Browns may get a couple of big plays from
their defense. Look for MLB Andra Davis and WLB Warrick Holdman to be
extra aggressive as the Browns try to pressure Warner into making some
crucial mistakes.
Cleveland ROT Ryan Tucker suffered a strained quad earlier in the week and
will not play. The Browns will start Joaquin Gonzalez in Tucker's place.
Gonzalez is a heady player that gives great effort, but he lacks the
physical tools to matchup with Giants LDE Michael Strahan. The Browns have
a number of ways they can help Gonzalez. Offensive coordinator Terry
Robiskie can use Suggs or Green to "chip" Strahan before they release out
of the backfield. Another option is to keep TE Steve Heiden, who will
start in place of the injured Kellen Winslow, in as an extra blocker to
Strahan's side. Cleveland may also choose to slide their entire protection
to the right. But the best way to help Tucker is to take advantage of QB
Jeff Garcia's mobility and move the pocket around. Expect to see plenty of
designed rollouts and bootlegs.

Shockey
The Browns have gotten torched by tight ends the past two weeks, which
bodes well for the Giants' Jeremy Shockey. Shockey has struggled to adjust
to a new scheme and he has been frustrated by nagging injuries. However,
Shockey still ranks among the league's most dangerous tight ends even when
he isn't 100 percent. Shockey should have plenty of success working
against Cleveland's safety tandem of Robert Griffith and Earl Little.
Griffith is aging and lacks the speed to run with Shockey in man coverage;
Little is better suited to play near the line and may struggle to stay
over the top when defending the deep zone. The Browns hope that their
blitz package will get to Warner before Shockey breaks free
Although Shockey holds a big advantage over the Browns' safeties, it will
be interesting to see if head coach Tom Coughlin adjusts his scheme to
capitalize on the mismatch. Coughlin is a believer in the multifaceted
tight end and has used Shockey as a lead blocker or an H-back more than he
has released him downfield as a receiver. Shockey, who sat out most of the
preseason with injury, may still need time to adjust to the scheme and
develop a rapport with Warner. But the bottom line remains the same. He
needs more opportunities to make an impact on the game.
The injury bug has reared its ugly head and leaves Cleveland shorthanded
in this one. In addition to Tucker and Winslow, the Browns will be without
LDE Courtney Brown, LDT Gerard Warren and DC Anthony Henry. All of them
are starters when they are healthy. In addition, LOG Paul Zukauskas and DC
Daylon McCutcheon will be hampered by injuries if they play at all.
Zukauskas has limited mobility with a sprained knee while McCutcheon won't
be as physical in coverage, as he has had three pins inserted into his
left hand. While it's important to note that every team deals with injury,
few will lose five starters at the same time.
With Henry out and McCutcheon potentially set to miss the game, Cleveland
could start Michael Lehan and Leigh Bodden at cornerback. They've combined
for three starts between them, and their inexperience a huge concern.
Without much depth at cornerback, the Browns will have an extremely
difficult time matching up in nickel and dime situations. Look for the
Giants to spread the field with three receivers. This will push Cleveland
deeper into its sub-packages then it wants to go. The versatility of New
York's skill players in the passing game will also allow Warner to exploit
individual matchups on the perimeter. To take full advantage of those
opportunities, New York's offensive line must step up and provide better
protection.
A pattern that developed in the preseason is continuing to cause problems
for the Browns' offense. WR Quincy Morgan has two catches, Andre Davis has
four and Dennis Northcutt has amassed just 19 yards on four receptions.
Garcia's inability to get the ball to his wide receivers is an issue that
dates back to his time with the 49ers. He lacks great arm strength and has
been premature in his decisions to dump the ball off to his tight ends and
backs in the past. With Green and Suggs, just average receivers out of the
backfield, and Winslow now gone, the Browns' passing game could be in
serious trouble. Unless Garcia can find a way to get his receivers more
involved, Kelly Holcomb could be thrown back into the mix at some point in
the near future.
Last week against Washington, the Giants' defense produced four
interceptions, three fumble recoveries and scored a touchdown. New York's
offense managed to turn those seven turnovers into just 13 points. If the
Giants are to get their second win, they'll need a balanced effort.

Special Teams

Cleveland PK Phil Dawson has connected on all six of his field-goal
attempts this season. His current streak of 16 consecutive field-goal
attempts without a miss is the longest in the NFL right now. He has been
much more consistent recently. Though Dawson lacks great range, he has
shown the ability to connect on the occasional long-range field-goal
attempt.
The Giants' special teams have been extremely inconsistent over the past
couple of years. They have even cost the team a handful of wins as a
direct result of some late-game meltdowns. This year, the special teams
unit appears much improved, but it's still early.

Matchups

Cleveland ROT Joaquin Gonzalez vs. New York LDE Michael Strahan.

New York TE Jeremy Shockey vs. Cleveland SS Robert Griffith.

Cleveland RB Lee Suggs vs. New York OLB Carlos Emmons.

New York WR Amani Toomer vs. Cleveland DC Michael Lehan.

New York's interior line vs. Cleveland' s blitz package.

Prediction: Giants 23, Browns 21

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:19 PM

Take 2: Cardinals vs. Falcons

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Cardinals and Falcons. Now they're back with a
second look.
Arizona QB Josh McCown has been under intense pressure throughout the
first two games. While the offensive line and his inexperience are partly
to blame, it's important to note that head coach Dennis Green's system has
not been fully installed. His offenses in Minnesota and San Francisco
thrived on beating the blitz, but Arizona has been unable to capitalize on
the single coverage created by teams being aggressive. The injuries to WR
Anquan Boldin and RB Marcel Shipp, combined with a young quarterback
trying to learn a new scheme, have left Green with his hands tied. Arizona
will continue to be vanilla until the offense is back to full strength and
McCown shows a better understanding of pass-protection.
ROT Anthony Clement is the only player on the Cardinals' line playing in
the same spot that he played at last season, but he has failed to develop
as hoped and is becoming a liability. He draws Atlanta's best pass rusher
LDE Patrick Kerney, who has registered 19 sacks since the beginning of the
2002 season. Arizona has to keep Kerney at bay to have any chance of
moving the ball through the air, but Clement lacks the lateral mobility to
hold up on an island and will need some help. RB Emmitt Smith is one of
the best pass blockers in the league at his position. He must be effective
when "chipping" Kerney and in blitz pick-up when the Falcons bring two
defenders off the edge. It will be important for Arizona's backs to step
up and attack the line once they recognize where the pressure is coming
from.
Arizona's front-seven will have to watch out for cut-blocks working
against the Falcons. Atlanta offensive line coach Alex Gibbs has got his
unit playing more aggressively than they have in the past. The Cardinal
defenders must use their hands to protect their legs and avoid getting
knocked to the ground. If Arizona's front seven consistently gets cut,
Falcons QB Michael Vick and RB Warrick Dunn have the burst to get into the
secondary quickly and the speed to break some long runs.
The Cardinals' defense has already forced six turnovers -- ranking them
second-best in the league in that category -- and they have held opponents
to an average of 20 points per game. Arizona needs another strong
defensive performance if it wants to pull off the upset, since the offense
has struggled to do much of anything.
It seems unlikely that OLB Raynoch Thompson (knee) will be ready. Although
the Cardinals have played well without him through the first two weeks,
his athleticism would be nice to have working against the explosive Vick.
Veteran James Darling has filled in admirably, but he lacks Thompson's
speed and could become a liability when Vick decides to take off running.
Arizona defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast will have to be creative
devising a scheme to contain the Falcons' mobile quarterback. The problem
is his options are limited without the corners to match up in man coverage
on the outside. Look for SS Adrian Wilson to play a "spy" technique and
for Pendergast to implement more zone schemes to protect his corners.

Stewart
Atlanta SLB Matt Stewart broke his left thumb during practice last
Thursday and is still wearing a cast. Though he is expected to play, he
will be matched up with TE Freddie Jones for the majority of the day and
the injury could affect him. If Stewart can't use his hands to slow Jones
down at the line of scrimmage, expect Jones to have a big game working the
seam.
Despite the explosiveness of Vick, Dunn and TE Alge Crumpler, the Falcons
aren't a quick-strike team. Offensive coordinator Gregg Knapp is
comfortable controlling the clock with the short-passing game and mixing
in the run. But sooner or later, Atlanta will need more production from
its vertical passing game. WRs Peerless Price -- the only Falcon to catch
a ball over 20 yards -- Brian Finneran and Dez White have combined for
zero touchdowns. They'll face a suspect Arizona secondary and should be
able to stretch the field with more consistency.
With an inexperienced quarterback under center, the Cardinals will want to
avoid spreading the field working against an aggressive Jim Mora-coached
Falcons' defense. Jones will need to step up and become a reliable option
in the middle. With Boldin out and WR Bryant Johnson continuing to
struggle, the Cardinals' passing game has slowed to a crawl. Larry
Fitzgerald is the team's most consistent option, but opponents have been
able to limit the rookie's production by rolling coverages to his side. If
McCown is to have success throwing the ball, Jones must fill the void
created by Boldin's injury and become the complementary receiver this
offense is lacking.

Special Teams

Arizona PK Neil Rackers is as hot as any kicker in the NFL right now. He
connected on two field goals of more than 50 yards last week, and three of
his four kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. With the Cardinals' offense
continuing to struggle, Rackers' emergence has been important. He gives
the team added range and a shot at points they otherwise wouldn't pick up.
In addition, his ability as a kickoff specialist should give Arizona an
edge over the Falcons in the field-position battle.

Matchups

Atlanta QB Michael Vick vs. Arizona SS Adrian Wilson

Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Atlanta DC Jason Webster

Atlanta TE Alge Crumpler vs. Arizona OLB Gerald Hayes

Arizona ROT Anthony Clement vs. Atlanta LDE Patrick Kerney

Arizona TE Freddie Jones vs. Atlanta SS Bryan Scott

Prediction: Falcons 26, Cardinals 17

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:20 PM

Take 2: Ravens vs. Bengals

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Ravens and Bengals. Now they're back with a
second look.
Baltimore TE Todd Heap is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with a severely
sprained right ankle. Backup Terry Jones is an excellent blocker, and No.
3 Daniel Wilcox is a reliable short-to-intermediate receiver, but neither
has Heap's ability to stretch Cincinnati's defense. With Heap and WR
Travis Taylor, who injured his groin last week, out, the Ravens may see
more of the 4-4-3 front Cleveland used to slow RB Jamal Lewis in the
opener. At the very least, Cincinnati will play eight and nine men in the
box.

SuggsBaltimore has made no secret of its plans to blitz Bengals QB Carson
Palmer early and often. One of the ways Ravens defensive coordinator Mike
Nolan will attack Cincinnati's offensive line is to blitz two linebackers
opposite LOLB Lee Suggs and have the end in front of Suggs shoot inside.
The scheme is designed to prevent Cincinnati from double teaming Suggs by
drawing attention away from him and occupying the offensive line with five
defenders. Suggs has developed some effective counter moves to complement
his explosive burst, making him extremely difficult to block with one man.

Expect Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkwoski to use a back or tight
end to chip Suggs before releasing downfield if Suggs has success getting
to Palmer early. Cincinnati OTs Levi Jones and Willie Anderson can also
help themselves by maintaining inside leverage. Forcing Suggs to go
outside makes him take a wider angle and a longer path to Palmer.
Bengals OC Rich Braham probably will be a game-time decision after missing
last week's game with a knee injury. Jerry Fontenot is an experienced
backup, and he did a sound job in relief last week, but a healthy Braham
back in the lineup would give Cincinnati's running game a boost. Unlike
most centers, including Fontenot, Braham is more effective when a defender
lines up over his head than when he is uncovered. He is at his best
working against 3-4 fronts like the one Baltimore runs, and he should get
the better of his matchup with NT Ma'ake Kemoeatu -- if he plays. Kemoeatu
is starting in place of Kelly Gregg, who is expected to miss this game
with a knee injury.

WashingtonBengals WR Peter Warrick has been hobbled by shin and knee
injuries, and Baltimore will bracket WR Chad Johnson with CB Chris
McAlister and SS Ed Reed at times. As a result, WRs T.J. Houshmandzdeh and
Kelley Washington need to step up when Cincinnati goes to its three- and
four-receiver sets. Houshmandzdeh is dangerous after the catch, while
Washington has the speed and size to pose a threat in the vertical passing
game. They have been inconsistent, but a big play from either will make it
more difficult for the Ravens to double Johnson and will draw some
attention away from Warrick.
In addition, the Bengals' receivers dropped some passes they should gave
caught late in last week's game. Baltimore's defense is one of the best in
the league, and Cincinnati cannot afford to miss opportunities to make a
big play or pick up a critical first down. The receivers must look the
ball into their hands before turning upfield.
The Bengals' offense needs be ready to play defense, because the Ravens'
defense is ready to play offense. Baltimore's secondary expects to make
plays, and the Ravens do an excellent job of blocking after a turnover. If
Cincinnati fumbles or Palmer throws an interception, the offense must
swarm to the ball and make sure they wrap up on contact.

ReedThere's no question Baltimore SS Reed is a playmaker, but he doesn't
have the hands of a receiver, and it has cost him. Last week Reed looked
like he was in perfect position for an interception when the ball glanced
off his hands and right to Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward, who went 58 yards.
The last time Baltimore played in Cincinnati, almost the exact same thing
happened, with the ball ending up in Chad Johnson's hands for an 82-yard
touchdown. With Reed's history, the Bengals must stay focused and be ready
to adjust to any deflections. The Ravens won't tell Reed to simply knock
the ball down, because he is a playmaker, and they want to him to stay
aggressive.
The Bengals Madieu Williams has excellent versatility, starting one game
at corner and one game at strong safety. Cincinnati defensive coordinator
Leslie Frazier will bring additional pressure, using Williams' ability to
play both positions to keep Baltimore off-balance. Frazier can line
Williams up at safety, blitz a corner and have Williams rotate over to
cover the receiver left by the blitzing corner.
Baltimore's players, especially on defense, generally play with
outstanding intensity, but it can get them into trouble. Last week the
Ravens committed three unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, an unnecessary
roughness penalty and had an offensive lineman flagged for a 15-yard
facemask. With Boller having problems moving the offense efficiently,
quality field position is critical. The Ravens got away with it last week,
but they must play with improved discipline against Cincinnati, or those
mistakes could come back to haunt them.
The Bengals cannot try tot tackle Baltimore RB Jamal Lewis above the
waist. Lewis has the upper body strength to break arm tackles, and he
always keeps his feet moving after contact. He will drag defenders with
him as long as they allow him to keep his legs pumping. If Cincinnati
doesn't wrap his legs up and swarm to the ball, Lewis will be effective no
matter how many players it puts in the box.

Special Teams
Place kicking will play an important role in what should be close game.
The Bengals' Shayne Graham missed a 38-yard field goal attempt wide right
last week. While Ravens PK Matt Stover certainly hasn't split the uprights
down the middle every time, he has connected on all four of his field goal
attempts and is far more experienced.
Cincinnati P Kyle Larson, who signed with the Bengals as an undrafted
rookie free agent this year, has played well thus far. He needs to have a
strong game and help Cincinnati win the battle of field position.

Matchups

Baltimore LOT Jonathan Ogden vs. Cincinnati RDE Justin Smith

Cincinnati WR Chad Johnson vs. Baltimore CB Chris McAlister

Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer vs. Baltimore SS Ed Reed

Baltimore WR Kevin Johnson vs. Cincinnati CB Deltha O'Neal

Baltimore RB Jamal Lewis vs. Cincinnati MLB Nate Webster

Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 14

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:21 PM

Take 2: Eagles vs. Lions

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Eagles and Lions. Now they're back with a
second look.
Eagles starting cornerbacks Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard have been
under the microscope. They've managed to avoid giving up big plays and
seem comfortable in their roles so far. However, defensive coordinator Jim
Johnson gave his corners help by usually playing a safety over the top
last Monday night against the Vikings and WR Randy Moss. Johnson's scheme
worked as Moss caught eight balls for just 69 yards. Johnson wants to
eliminate the big play from Detroit's offensive repertoire as well. As a
result, expect a similar approach from the Eagles working against Lions WR
Roy Williams, who is averaging 17.8 yards per catch.

KearseWith the addition of DEs Jevon Kearse and Hugh Douglas, the return
of Derrick Burgess from injury and the development of Jerome McDougle, the
Eagles have been able to create pressure with their front four. That's
something they couldn't do last year. Through the first two games of this
season, Philadelphia leads the league with nine sacks, and five and a half
of those came from the defensive line.
The emergence of the Eagles' defensive line has allowed Johnson to drop
more defenders back into coverage. Although blitzing will remain an
integral part of what Philadelphia does defensively, there will be some
differences in how the Eagles will attack from a philosophical standpoint.
Last year, the Eagles needed to blitz to create pressure. With the front
four applying consistent pressure, Johnson has attacked by design rather
than out of necessity this year.
With that said, look for the Eagles to crank up the intensity working
against Detroit QB Joey Harrington, who has thrown 40 interceptions
through his first 30 starts. Although Harrington is starting to mature and
has made better decisions through the first two games this year, he's
still learning. Johnson will attack the third-year signal caller early and
often in the hopes that the added pressure will cause him to make some
poor decisions. One or two turnovers from Harrington could give
Philadelphia the win.
Lions CB Dre' Bly has not practiced this week, but apparently his sprained
left knee is improving every day and he could be available on Sunday. If
Bly can go, Detroit will be better suited to match up on the perimeter.
However, nothing is guaranteed at this point. If Bly pulls up lame, his
backup, Andre' Goodman, is still recovering from a thigh injury. That
leaves 5-10 Fernando Bryant as the team's best option to match up with 6-3
WR Terrell Owens. The pending decisions on Bly and Goodman will have a big
impact on this game, but it won't give Detroit the advantage on the
perimeter. Detroit's secondary lacks depth with or without Bly and
Goodman.
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook leads the NFL with an average of 8.1 yards per
touch and his versatility will pose some tough matchup problems for the
Lions. With OLB Boss Bailey out (knee), Detroit lacks the speed in its
linebacker corps to stay with Westbrook when he releases as a receiver out
of the backfield. In addition, Westbrook, who caught five balls for 69
yards last week, can be lined up in the slot and he will get some
opportunities working against a Detroit secondary riddled by injury.
The Lions don't have many options to match up with Westbrook considering
the attention that Owens commands, but they can control the amount of
damage he does. Detroit must do a good job of wrapping up in the open
field and limit Westbrook's yards after the catch, as he is extremely
elusive and can turn the short throw into a big play for the Eagles.
One matchup to watch will be Detroit ROT Stockar McDougle working against
Philadelphia LDE Jerome McDougle. The two players are brother,s and the
winner of this matchup will give his team a big advantage, especially when
Harrington drops back to pass. Jerome will rotate in every third or fourth
play as part of wave, but when the siblings do square off, his speed may
pose a problem for Stockar, who tends to be flat-footed.

PorcherAnother concern for Detroit is at defensive end, where James Hall
has a broken left thumb and Kalimba Edwards has an arch injury. If either
one pulls up lame, the Lions will activate 13-year NFL veteran Robert
Porcher for the first time this season. Porcher, who has never been a
great run defender, is nearing the end of his career and could become a
liability as the game wears on.
The emergence of Williams and the addition of Tai Streets have allowed
Az-Zahir Hakim to move back inside, where he was so effective with the St.
Louis Rams during his first four NFL seasons. Working out of the slot,
Hakim has made better use of his quickness than he did lining up on the
outside last year. In addition, he draws more favorable matchups working
primarily against opponents' nickel backs. This week, CB Roderick Hood
will be responsible for staying with Hakim when the Lions go to their
three-receiver sets. Hood has been solid filling in for the injured Matt
Ware, but he'll have to wrap-up this week, as Hakim is at his best after
the catch.
QB Donovan McNabb did a great job last Monday night of recognizing where
the Vikings were bringing pressure from and exploiting the blitz by
throwing to the vacated zone. Minnesota consistently brought five rushers,
including four down linemen and a blitzing linebacker. However, the Eagles
front-five was effective in picking it up, so McNabb had time to dump the
ball off to his tight ends, backs and receivers. In addition to Westbrook,
McNabb found TE L.J. Smith and WR Freddie Mitchell time and again on
Monday night, as the Vikings' blitz-package seemed to lack creativity. The
Lions will also want blitz McNabb, but defensive coordinator Dick Jauron
can't make the same mistakes. If Detroit is to have success pressuring
McNabb, it will need to keep him off balance and attack from different
angles.

Special Teams

Rookie KOR J.R. Reed had 46-and 43-yard returns in the Eagles' win over
the Vikings on Monday night. He is averaging 27.7 yards per attempt and
has given Philadelphia the big-play threat on special teams that it
thought it lost when Westbrook stopped returning punts.
While Reed usually gives the Eagles an advantage in starting field
position, it's the Lions that should hold the edge in the return game.
Detroit KOR Eddie Drummond is averaging 33.0 yards per attempt including a
99-yard return for a touchdown last week.

Matchups

Philadelphia WR Terrell Owens vs. Detroit CB Fernando Bryant

Detroit WR Roy Williams vs. Philadelphia CB Sheldon Brown

Detroit ROT Stockar McDougle vs. Philadelphia LDE Jevon Kearse

Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook vs. Detroit OLB James Davis

Philadelphia LOG Artis Hicks vs. Detroit RDT Shaun Rogers

Prediction: Eagles 31, Lions 23

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:22 PM

Take 2: Jaguars vs. Titans

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Jaguars and Titans. Now they're back with a
second look.
FS Lance Schulters and SS Tank Williams play with excellent intensity and
do a great job of filling against the run. However, they can be
overaggressive, and it makes Tennessee vulnerable to big plays in both the
running game and passing game.

Schulters
WilliamsJacksonville can test their discipline by running some counters
and rolling QB Byron Leftwich out of the pocket at times. Schulters and
Williams often react to the initial motion of the play. If they attack the
line too soon and get caught up in traffic when the Jaguars run
misdirection, RB Fred Taylor could hit the second level at full speed.
In addition, the Titans safeties got caught floating too far towards the
sideline when Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning rolled out last week. Manning
took advantage by setting his feet and throwing to the opposite side of
the field. Leftwich has excellent arm strength, and he is capable of doing
the same if the opportunity presents itself.

BennettTennessee puts WR Drew Bennett in motion at times, and it benefits
them in the running game, as well as the passing game. Putting Bennett in
motion creates better blocking angles, so he has an easier time locking on
at the second level. He does a good job of sustaining his blocks once in
position. The motion also makes its harder for Jacksonville to jam him.
Although Bennett is bigger than WR Derrick Mason, he isn't as explosive
off the line, and Mason has more success beating press coverage as a
result.
Titans FB Robert Holcombe has the lateral mobility to adjust to the moving
target downfield, and he is doing an excellent job of creating cutback
lanes for RB Chris Brown. Tennessee will run outside using an H-Back or
tight end as the lead blocker and allow Holcombe to attack the heart of
the Jaguars defense. If the Jacksonville defense gets caught flowing too
far outside, Brown can just cut back behind Holcombe's block Brown has had
success breaking some long runs that way, but the undersized Holcombe
isn't a powerful straight-line blocker. His inability to drive linebackers
out of the hole is one of the reasons Tennessee is having a hard time
picking up first downs in short-yardage situations.
The Jaguars aren't having much success on third down either, converting
just 3 of 23 attempts. One of the reasons Jacksonville is struggling on
third down is their lack of production on first and second downs. The
coaching staff has tried to keep opposing defenses off balance by passing
on first down and running out of the shotgun formation, but it hasn't
worked. Now it's a matter of the offense executing the plays better. The
Jaguars also must make sure to avoid penalties that create obvious passing
situations.

Henderson
StroudTennessee likes to pull a guard around the corner and use him as a
lead blocker, and that could lead to some negative yardage this week.
Jacksonville DTs John Henderson and Marcus Stroud are well known for their
ability to keep blockers off their linebackers, but they don't just anchor
at the point of attack. It's their combination of power and quickness that
makes them so disruptive and arguably the best DT tandem in the league.
Henderson and Stroud can use that burst off the ball to slip past the
tackle blocking down. They can then ride the hip of the guard right to the
running back 2-3 yards deep in the backfield.
Titans' defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will blitz the Jaguars all day,
and he should have some success getting to Leftwich. The additional
pressure will create some single-coverage opportunities on the outside,
and Jacksonville will try to take advantage by attacking downfield early.
Leftwich delivered a strike to WR Earnest Wilford in the face of the blitz
last week, and he is showing good poise in the pocket. If he can find the
open man downfield when Tennessee blitzes, Schwartz will have to back off.

The Jaguars will keep a back or tight end to help in pass protection
occasionally, but Schwartz will overload the Jacksonville offense by
bringing six and seven men occasionally. Jacksonville's backs and tight
ends need to pick up whichever blitzing linebacker, corner or safety poses
the biggest threat to Leftwich, something they failed to do at times last
week.
Titans ROLB Keith Bulluck suggested Manning knew Tennessee's defensive
calls, because the Colts had signed Mike Echols, cut by Titans, the week
of the game. It will be interesting to see if having Doug Johnson, who
played for the Jaguars last year, run the scout team this week benefits
Tennessee's defense.

Special Teams
Jacksonville RS Jermaine Lewis appears to have regained the initial
quickness that he showed earlier in his career, and he is always a threat
to go the distance when he gets his hands on the ball. The Titans' cover
teams must make sure to stay in their rushing lanes and wrap up on
contact, or Lewis could quickly change the complexion of this game.

HentrichTennessee P Craig Hentrich is a threat to pass, and the Titans
will fake a punt now and then, despite failing to pick up the first down
on a fake punt last week. If the Jaguars' punt return team starts dropping
back too early or getting upfield too fast don't be surprised to see
Hentrich throw again.
Jacksonville PK Josh Scobee has connected on both of his field goal
attempts thus far, but Titans PK Gary Anderson is experienced and
consistent. His ability to handle pressure could give Tennessee a
significant advantage in what should be a very close game.

Matchups

Tennessee RB Chris Brown vs. Jacksonville MLB Mike Peterson

Jacksonville WR Reggie Williams vs. Tennessee CB Andre Dyson

Tennessee LOG Jacob Bell vs. Jacksonville RDT John Henderson

Tennessee WR Derrick Mason vs. Jacksonville CB Dewayne Washington

Jacksonville Chris Naeole vs. Tennessee LDT Kevin Carter

Prediction: Titans 17, Jaguars 14

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:23 PM

Take 2: Texans vs. Chiefs

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Texans and Chiefs. Now they're back with a
second look.
Kansas City RB Priest Holmes is now expected to miss this game with an
ankle injury. Derrick Blaylock and Larry Johnson will share carries if
he's unavailable. The Chiefs still will pull their offensive linemen
around the corner and attack the perimeter of Houston's defense without
Holmes in the lineup. However, Blaylock and Johnson don't have Holmes'
vision or instincts. They must stay patient and allow their blocks to
develop, or they won't be able to cut back when the Texans' aggressive
outside linebackers get caught flying outside or too far upfield.

GreenThere's no question Holmes' game-breaking rushing and receiving
skills will be missed, but don't forget about his experience with Kansas
City's pass protection schemes. The Chiefs have yet to face a 3-4 front,
and Houston will bring pressure from all over the field. If Blaylock and
Johnson fail to pick up the most dangerous man or don't attack their
blocks at the line of scrimmage the Texans should be in QB Trent Green's
face all day.
Houston SS Eric Brown will miss this game with a sprained knee. While
Jason Simmons likely will replace Brown in the starting lineup, rookie
fourth-round pick Glen Earl also will see some time. With Brown out and
Kansas City dealing with several injuries at receiver, the Texans may
cover TE Tony Gonzalez with FS Marcus Coleman when Earl is in the game.
Coleman is a former corner, and Houston should feel more comfortable
matching him up against Gonzalez than Earl. Denver covered Gonzalez with
shutdown corner Champ Bailey at times during the season opener, and
Gonzalez caught just two passes for 17 yards.

DavisHouston RB Domanick Davis has watched film of his four fumbles thus
far and believes he can correct the problem. One of the reasons Davis has
had problems holding onto the football is he has let the ball get to far
way from his frame when trying to make a move at the second level. Keeping
the ball securely between his arm and body should result in fewer fumbles.

Kansas City WR Eddie Kennison, who injured his hamstring last week, will
be limited, if he plays at all, this week. Richard Smith, who signed with
the Chiefs as an undrafted free agent this year, will play a much bigger
role as a result. Smith is understandably going to experience some growing
pains, but he dropped two passes last week and needs to show better focus
when the ball is in the air. Green already has admitted to forcing some
throws to Gonzalez because he didn't have confidence in his other
receivers when the offense needed a big play. If Smith continues to drop
catchable passes, Green could start to press again. The result could be a
costly turnover.

HallDetroit had some success against Houston by motioning slot receiver
Az-Zahir Hakim in one direction, then running him across the field in the
opposite direction after the ball was snapped. One of the reasons this
works is the Texans often bring pressure off the edge, and the slot
receiver can slide into the space vacated by the blitzing linebacker. Look
for Kansas City to take a similar approach with No. 3 WR Dante Hall. Hall
may have dropped some passes that he should have caught, and he is still
developing as route-runner, but there is no questioning his ability to
create after the catch.
Kansas City may not want to admit it, but this is a critical game. The
Chiefs are 0-2, what was supposed to be an improved defense has
floundered, and there are several injuries on offense. In addition, there
are off-field problems, including tension between Johnson and head coach
Dick Vermeil, as well as CB Eric Warfield's arrest. Expect Houston to
smell weakness and attack downfield early. Jumping out to an early lead
will take the crowd out of the game and test the resilience of a Kansas
City team for which little has gone right this year.
The Chiefs' defense has taken a lot of heat thus far, and it deserves its
fair share, but the offense hasn't held up its end of the bargain, either.
Kansas City has lost the battle of time of possession in both games, and
Carolina actually controlled the ball for more than 13 minutes in the
third quarter last week. Without a lot of depth on defense, the Chiefs'
offense must do a better job of sustaining drives and getting the defense
some rest. If it doesn't, Houston will try to take advantage by running
all day long.
Kansas City CBs Dexter McCleon and Warfield both are lining up near the
line of scrimmage at times. However, they aren't doing a good job of
getting their hands into the receiver's frame, and they occasionally get
beat right off the line as a result. If the Chiefs are in a zone-coverage,
this creates a window for the receiver to get open between the corner and
the safety. McCleon and Warfield need to play with more of a mean streak
and disrupt the timing of the Texans' passing game.

HollidayThe Chiefs moved NT John Browning to right defensive end to
replace Vonnie Holliday, who was out with a groin injury, and inserted
backup Lionel Dalton at nose tackle last week. With Browning playing well
on the outside and Dalton doing an adequate job of clogging up the middle,
expect them to stay there after Holliday, who is listed as questionable,
returns.
It's important to note that Houston received the edge at running back
because Holmes isn't expected to play, but it wasn't an easy decision.
Davis' ball security issues and backup Tony Hollings' knee injury combined
with Kansas City's depth almost tipped the scales in favor of the Chiefs.
If Holmes starts or plays a significant role on Sunday, Kansas City will
clearly have the edge.

Special Teams
The Texans have the advantage at place kicker, with Kris Brown connecting
on all three of his field goal attempts thus far, but Chiefs fans
shouldn't be too quick to dismiss PK Lawrence Tynes. Tynes has missed two
of his four field goal attempts, but one miss came from 58 yards out and
he is getting excellent depth on his kickoffs.
Every Kansas City opponent knows it has to keep RS Hall contained because
he can take advantage of any breakdowns and give the offense quality field
position or points. Houston doesn't want to let what could-be a struggling
Chiefs' offense off the hook, so its cover teams will have to be at their
best.

Matchups

Houston WR Andre Johnson vs. Kansas City CB Dexter McCleon

Kansas City ROT John Welbourn vs. Houston LOLB Jason Babin

Kansas City WR Johnnie Morton vs. Houston CB Dunta Robinson

Houston RB Domanick Davis vs. Kansas City ROLB Shawn Barber

Houston LOG Chester Pitts vs. Kansas City NT Lionel Dalton

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 20

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:24 PM

Take 2: Chargers vs. Broncos

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Chargers and Broncos. Now they're back with a
second look.
Just like every other team in the NFL, Denver realizes that RB LaDainian
Tomlinson is the Chargers' only legitimate offensive weapon. Quite simply,
it would be surprising if the Broncos didn't load up against the run with
eight defenders consistently in the box and blitz QB Drew Brees to force
him into hasty decisions. As is always the case, the pressure is on Brees
and his receivers to beat the blitz and exploit the man-to-man coverage
that they are afforded on the perimeter as a result of all the attention
that Tomlinson gets. Outside of the overriding evidence that Brees isn't
able to consistently exploit these one-on-one matchups, the Broncos simply
have the better athletes at cornerback than the Chargers do at wide
receiver.

Bailey
With CB Champ Bailey likely to take his receiver (Eric Parker or Reche
Caldwell) out of the game "on an island", it frees up safeties John Lynch
and Kenoy Kennedy to play closer to the line of scrimmage where they are
both much more comfortable. Kennedy will occasionally give Kelly Herndon
help against the other Charger receiver that Bailey is not on. But for the
most part, Kennedy will be cheated up a few yards and in attack mode
versus the run or in man-coverage against a tight end or back if he reads
pass. With so few weapons to worry about and with so much flexibility with
his safeties, defensive coordinator Larry Coyer has to be licking his
chops.
On top of the fact that the Broncos can overcompensate to stop the run,
they are simply stronger than the Chargers up front. With Trevor Pryce
back at starting left defensive end, there isn't a spot up front that the
Broncos are overmatched. Pryce and RDE Reggie Hayward will stay fresh
because of the depth they have behind them with Raylee Johnson and Marco
Coleman. DTs Mario Fatafehi and Monsanto Pope are underrated run stoppers
that have been extremely tough to move so far this season. They also have
good depth behind them with Darius Holland and Luther Elliss, which helps
keep this whole defensive line fresh throughout the game. Al Wilson is one
of the few middle linebackers in the NFL that can keep up with Tomlinson
in terms of athletic ability. Also, young OLBs D.J. Williams and Jashon
Sykes are providing the athleticism that this unit needs on the perimeter.
Add that all up, combine it with the fact that the Charger offensive line
has two rookie starters and all five new starters from a year ago, and
we're not so sure that the front-seven couldn't handle the Chargers'
running game on its own if it had to.
San Diego's offense could win a battle on offense in the underneath
passing game. With Bailey and Herndon turning and running on the outside
and the Broncos typically bringing five and six defenders to pressure
Brees, there will be a lot of room in the flat and over the middle to
attack with Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates. One option is to get Tomlinson
the ball on a lot of screens behind the blitz and dump-offs in the flat. A
second option is to occasionally "flex" Tomlinson out to get him matched
up one-on-one against WLB D.J. Williams. While Williams is a terrific
athlete that will eventually develop into a premier cover linebacker in
the NFL, he's just a rookie that is certain to make some recognition
mistakes against the league's top receiver at the running back position
last season. Finally, the other potential opening could be down the seams
with Gates, who has the size-speed combination to create mismatches
against the Broncos' safeties and linebackers if left alone one-on-one
against any of them.
The biggest key for San Diego is the turnover battle. You need look no
further than the Chargers' first two games of the season to find out how
much turnovers can factor into a team's success and failure. In the
Chargers' win over Detroit, they forced four turnovers, compared to their
loss last week to the Jets when they committed four turnovers. For as
stout as the Denver defense has been so far, it has not been a group that
has made a lot of big plays. In fact, as a team, the Broncos are
minus-four.
After failing to get any consistent production from its ground game last
week, the Broncos' No. 1 objective this week is to re-establish RB Quentin
Griffin. Griffin has lost a fumble in each of the first two games this
season. If Griffin can hold onto the ball, the Broncos match up much
better against the Chargers' defensive line than they did last week
against the much bigger and more powerful Jaguar defensive line. OC Tom
Nalen isn't the biggest center in the game, but he might be the toughest
and most efficient. Despite giving up some size against NT Jamal Williams,
we'd be surprised if he didn't handle Williams on his own. If that's the
case, the Broncos will have a terrific opportunity to execute their mobile
zone-blocking scheme against a Chargers' front seven that is undersized as
a whole and has some inexperienced regulars sprinkled in.
Chargers defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will adjust his schemes to
his personnel. Now that Jammer is proving capable of holding up "on an
island", Phillips is taking advantage. For a defense that comes up short
in a lot of other areas, the presence of a "shutdown" cornerback is
invaluable. It essentially allows Phillips to game plan with one-third of
the field that he doesn't have to worry about in coverage. It will give SS
Terrence Kiel more opportunities to play closer to the line of scrimmage,
which increases the unit's numbers against the run and puts Keil in better
position to lock on man-to-man against tight ends. It also allows FS Jerry
Wilson to roll over to CB Sammy Davis' side to give him extra help deep
against WR Rod Smith.
While the Chargers will absolutely benefit from Jammer's ability to hold
up one-on-one against WR Ashley Lelie throughout most of the game, it
still doesn't solve the problem that they have in terms of being
inexperienced at some spots in their back seven, including Keil, Davis and
Wilson from a starters' perspective. The concern we have for this group is
discipline. If the Broncos are able to establish the running game that we
think they will early on, it's only human nature for young defenders to
begin to get overzealous in run support -- and that's when a quarterback
like Jake Plummer, who has terrific ball skills and has proven capable of
exploiting the same types of one-on-one matchups that Brees hasn't, will
kill them. Not only does Lelie have the speed to get open deep in a hurry
if Davis and/or Wilson takes false steps on the play-fake, but Griffin and
TEs Jeb Putzier and Dwayne Carswell can also create problems for
linebackers and Kiel if they get caught overpursuing.

Special Teams

The Broncos have a big edge on special teams, and it should only add to
the Chargers' problems on the road. In terms of the kicking game, the
Broncos are just so much more consistent and experienced with PT Micah
Knorr and PK Jason Elam than the Chargers are with PT Mike Scifres and
rookie Nate Kaeding. Knorr is off to a solid start with an average of 44.8
yards per punt; Elam has connected on 4 of 5 field-goal attempts. Scifres
and Keading have very good futures ahead of them, but the Chargers have to
be concerned about their young kickers in such a hostile environment.
The Chargers bridge the gap a little bit in the return game because of Tim
Dwight's presence as a kick returned. Dwight ranks in the top-10 in return
average, with 29.2 yards and returned a kick 87 yards for a touchdown last
week. Eric Parker has not been as successful returning punts, as he
averages a decent 8.6 yards per return. One of the real surprises so far
this season, however, is the success that aging veteran Rod Smith is
having as a punt returner for the Broncos; he ranks fourth in the league
with an average of 12.4 yards. The Broncos aren't as explosive in the
kickoff return game, but Reuben Droughns is more than capable, as he ranks
just four spots behind Dwight in the league's overall average per return
rankings with 26.8.

Matchups

San Diego WR Eric Parker vs. Denver DC Champ Bailey.

San Diego ROT Shane Olivea vs. Denver LDE Trevor Pryce.

San Diego TE Antonio Gates vs. Denver DS John Lynch.

Denver OC Tom Nalen vs. San Diego NT Jamal Williams.

Denver WR Ashley Lelie vs. San Diego LDC Quentin Jammer.

Prediction: Broncos 23, Chargers 10

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:25 PM

Take 2: Packers vs. Colts

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Packers and Colts. Now they're back with a
second look.
Colts RB Edgerrin James was upgraded from doubtful to questionable on
Thursday. If he can even provide the team with 15 carries on Sunday it
would give the Colts a huge boost. This game, in our opinion, is going to
come down to the running attacks of both teams. Colts QB Peyton Manning
and his deep corps of receivers should cancel out Packers QB Brett Favre
and his deep corps of receivers. However, both defenses have struggled to
stop the run, so without James in the lineup the Packers are in
tremendously better shape to exploit that weakness.
With or without James, the Colts must remain balanced offensively. For
starters, their offensive line has a terrific advantage up front in the
running game against the Packers' defensive front four, which is
undersized on the perimeter and misses Grady Jackson terribly in the
middle. Without Jackson in the lineup, the Packers cannot afford to rotate
in as many players at the position, which leads to their interior getting
worn down a lot quicker. They also don't get nearly the production from
James Lee that they got from Jackson, who frequently required double team
attention that freed up Cletidus Hunt to work one-on-one versus opposing
guard.
Secondly, Manning has always been a much more effective quarterback when
the run set up the play-action series, which is unquestionably his
strength because of his ball handling skills and ability to spot
linebackers and safeties who take false steps against the play-action.
With that in mind, even if James can't go, the Colts will maintain a
similar offensive approach and simply rely on Dominic Rhodes -- and James
Mungro to a lesser extent -- to carry the load.

RhodesWhen Rhodes is healthy he's a capable back. The former undrafted
free agent had his best production in his rookie season when he stepped in
and filled James' role in the offense when James went down with a knee
injury. However, Rhodes suffered a knee injury of his own in the preseason
in '02, which cost him the '02 regular season and stole some of his
acceleration and confidence in his cutting ability last season. His speed
and big-play capabilities are what make him such a good backup to James.
He is as healthy right now as he has been since the injury and he is
showing similar burst and cutting ability.
Rhodes may lack the size and durability of a premier back in the NFL, but
if he's asked to carry a full load in one game against the Packers on
Sunday -- or a part-time role in a heavier rotation with James -- Rhodes
can certainly provide the Colts the production on the ground that they
need to maintain balance. Do the Colts lose a lot in terms of consistency,
size, power, blocking ability and versatility with Rhodes in for James,
but Rhodes at least has the experience and burst to force the Packers to
respect the run.
The Colts' versatility in the passing game should cause the Packers
problems in terms of matching up. For starters, WR Marvin Harrison will
require the attention of two Packer defensive backs because Green Bay
simply lacks a cornerback who can be trusted alone on an island for even
one play. Look for FS Mark Roman to spend most of his afternoon in
"bracket" coverage, which means he'll be responsible for Harrison when he
releases inside and up the field, while the perimeter cornerback -- either
Al Harris or Mike McKenzie, who is expected to start in the base personnel
package this week -- will be responsible for Harris underneath and on the
outside.
Because of that attention, the Colts will consistently get man-to-man
coverage situations for WR Reggie Wayne against either Harris or McKenzie
on the opposite side. They also will get a mismatch either with one of
their two tight ends (Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark) against SLB
Hannibal Navies in their two-tight end sets, or they'll get a mismatch of
Brandon Stokley against Michael Hawthorne in the slot when they are in
their three-receiver sets. Harrison has been held to just 8.4 yards on 17
receptions so far this season because of all the attention he's getting,
but that attention really opens things up for the rest of Manning's
weapons.

CliftonMuch like the Packers, the Colts' defense is struggling to stop the
run. However, while the Colts are hoping they can exploit the Packers' run
defense, the Packers know they can exploit the Colts'. Not only are the
Packers in a much better situation because of the health of Green compared
to that of James, but they also have an offensive line that should
absolutely dominate the Colts' defensive front. LOT Chad Clifton's ability
to match up one-on-one against Colts RDE Dwight Freeney on running downs
makes the rest of the unit's job easy.
Without having to concern themselves with a double team, (a luxury most
teams don't have) the Packers can afford to get OC Mike Flanagan involved
as a second-level blocker, which is his strength. Look for the Packers to
use a lot of counters and zone plays that allow Green to use his cutback
ability and burst to the fullest. By using that type of reverse-the-field
type of action, it will give Flanagan a chance to seal off MLB Rob Morris
and it will also exploit the Colts for overpursuing, which has been a
problem for the undersized but very eager and active group.
Everyone knows about Favre's struggles inside a dome over the course of
his career, but the more tangible concern for the Packers this week is
Favre's patience against the cover-2. While Favre certainly has the
overall weapons and the arm strength to exploit the Colts for the marginal
personnel in their secondary, he must show patience against the "bend but
don't break" scheme. He has had a tendency in the past to force throws
into tight spots, which is exactly what the Colts want him to do. Because
the zone scheme allows linebackers and defensive backs to face the
quarterback at all times, defenders can get a quicker jump on Favre's
throws.
Furthermore, the scheme is designed to keep everything in front of it,
allowing the opponent to make underneath throws with the philosophy that
they'll need to make long drives without making a mistake in order to
score. That's not Favre's strength. He would much rather take chances
downfield and try to come up with the big play than "dink and dunk" down
the field with a lot of dump-offs and quick-hitting routes. If Favre
becomes impatient and tries to force throws downfield into spots that will
close quicker than usual, the Packers will really struggle to keep up in
what projects as a shootout between two of the better offenses in the NFL.

Special Teams

The Colts have a slight edge on special teams, with an emphasis on slight.
Packers PK Ryan Longwell is a reliable veteran, but PK Mike Vanderjagt
gives the Colts the advantage. Sans his miss on a potential game-tying
field goal attempt against the Patriots on opening night, Vanderjagt has
been and should remain automatic. He might be the best in the business no
matter the conditions.
Hunter Smith gives the Colts an advantage in the punting game because of
his stronger and more accurate leg, but at least Packers PT Bryan Barker
is consistent, accurate and reliable. The return game should be unexciting
with a lot of inexperienced return specialist working against good
punters, kickers and cover teams.
The Packers have a potential weapon in PR Antonio Chatman, but he has been
inconsistent and the team also has a musical chairs situation at KOR
because of Najeh Davenport's injury. The Colts aren't much better with
Brad Pyatt returning punts and Rhodes handling kickoff returns.

Matchups

Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. Green Bay RDC Al Harris.

Indianapolis LOT Tarik Glenn vs. Green Bay RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.

Green Bay RB Ahman Green vs. Indianapolis MLB Rob Morris.

Green Bay LOT Chad Clifton vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney.

Green Bay QB Brett Favre vs. Indianapolis FS Idrees Bashir.

Prediction: Colts 26, Packers 24

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:26 PM

Take 2: 49ers vs. Seahawks

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks. Now they're back with a
second look.
The 49ers have an awful lot stacked against them in Sunday's visit to
Seattle. The biggest concern has to be at the quarterback position, where
Ken Dorsey will make his first road start in a regular-season NFL game.
Dating back to his collegiate days at Miami, Dorsey's strength has always
been his poise. He makes up for what he lacks in size, arm strength and
mobility with his calm demeanor, winning attitude, ability to read
defenses and overall accuracy as a passer. If, for some reason, Dorsey
does not handle the pressure and/or the crowd noise well, and if he starts
to push by forcing throws, his other physical shortcoming could really be
highlighted by an aggressive and opportunistic Seahawks defense.
Making matters more challenging for Dorsey will be the matchups that
really don't favor him and his receivers. Curtis Conway was a good late
addition to this football team in the preseason, as he has provided the
49ers with some speed and big-play potential, with an average of 13.6
yards per catch. No. 2 WR Cedrick Wilson has been reliable with seven
receptions in two games and Brandon Lloyd (five receptions) has provided
solid production as the No. 3. While all three have played admirably,
they're being forced into a role that is a notch above their skill set, as
Conway should be a complementary receiver and Wilson and Lloyd should both
be sub-package receivers. The trio will be overmatched by Seahawks
cornerbacks Marcus Trufant, Ken Lucas and Bobby Taylor. Lucas has the size
and strength to frustrate Conway at the line of scrimmage, Trufant can
take Wilson out of the game easily one-on-one and Taylor is a perfect
match against the bigger but slower Lloyd. Because the 49ers are so
inexperienced at the quarterback position, expect the Seahawks to turn up
the heat with the blitz. And when they do, Trufant, Lucas and Taylor will
do a great job of smothering the 49ers' receivers, leaving Dorsey
stranded.
With Seattle likely overloaded to stop the run and overextended with their
safeties frequently cheated up in the box, the one matchup that could
really work in the 49ers' favor is TE Eric Johnson against whichever
safety or linebacker is responsible for him. Dorsey has always done a
great job of finding his tight end over the middle (see Jeremy Shockey at
Miami and Johnson with fives catches last week), and Johnson, who leads
the team with 13 receptions, is clearly his favorite target right now. If
the 49ers can sell a couple of play-fakes and get Johnson matched up
against a linebacker or safety that has taken a false step or two when he
initially read run, this could be a key pitch-and-catch combo in this
game.
With all of that in mind, the 49ers must establish a running attack in
this game. The Seahawks have only allowed an average of 83 yards on the
ground after the first two games, but that statistic is deceiving
considering the lead they jumped out to against the Saints in the opener
and the fact that they played a stagnant Bucs offense last week. DTs
Cedric Woodard and Rashad Moore have done an adequate job so far and the
unit is also getting some help from rookie Marcus Tubbs and Rocky Bernard.
However, the 49ers actually match up well in the interior, as OGs Eric
Heitmann and Kyle Kosier has the initial quickness, size and strength to
get a consistent push. OC Brock Gutierrez, who is filling in for the
injured Jeremy Newberry, is a seasoned veteran that can reach the second
level and frustrate MLB Orlando Huff. When the 49ers are in their two-back
sets with RB Kevan Barlow and FB Fred Beasley, they can count on Beasley
to take care of the outside linebacker to the play side, which will either
be Anthony Simmons or Isaiah Kacyvenski.
One unknown that could make or break San Francisco's chances of upsetting
Seattle in this game is the health of Barlow. Unexpectedly, Barlow left
practice on Wednesday and had to have an MRI taken of his knee that
apparently was sore and was preventing him from cutting and accelerating
with the same explosiveness. Barlow will play on Sunday, but if he's less
than 100 percent it will really cost the 49ers.
The Seahawks will score their fair share of points in this game, but their
offensive approach might not be as balanced as fans are used to seeing.
First off, RB Shaun Alexander is not 100 percent because of a bone bruise
on his right knee. He likely will get around 15 carries rather than the
20-plus that the team likes to get him and, while he still should be
moderately effective, he might not have the same burst and explosiveness
that he typically runs with. Secondly, the 49ers are simply tougher
against the run than most realize. They have two very adept defensive
tackles in Bryant Young and Anthony Adams, who do a good job of
penetrating and disrupting. They also have gotten strong play from DEs
John Engelberger and Otis Leverette, who was signed late and wound up
starting last week in the place of injured DE Andre Carter. Leverette
doesn't provide a whole lot as a pass rusher, but he is big and strong for
a defensive end against the run. With two tough inside linebackers in
Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich, combined with one of the most athletic
linebackers in the NFL, Julian Peterson, it's no wonder why teams have
struggled to establish a ground game (70.5 yards per game) versus this
unit so far this season.
In order to counter what could be an unusually frustrating afternoon on
the ground, the Seahawks will need to spread it out and open it up a lot
more than usual. The 49ers' pass defense is extremely susceptible. The
secondary is entirely too inconsistent. Mike Rumph did not play last week
and is questionable this week, which means depth is a concern. DC Ahmed
Plummer and SS Tony Parrish are consistent, but they are the only ones in
that group. FS Ronnie Heard has marginal physical skills for a starter and
he gave up a big play last week when he was out of position. Jimmy
Williams has been forced into a starting role with Rumph out (Williams
should be nothing more than a No. 4 cornerback). With one of the best
trios of receivers in the NFL (Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson and Bobby
Engram), the 49ers' secondary could be in for a lot of trouble.
The 49ers' front four cannot consistently get to the quarterback on its
own, which forces defensive coordinator Willy Robinson to take more
chances with the blitz. Jamie Winborn typically can come in and provide
versatility as a linebacker that can cover and blitz, but when the 49ers
are in base personnel their only consistent threat to blitz is Peterson.
If Robinson blitzes Peterson, he takes away his best cover guy against
either a back, tight end or even a slot receiver. On the other hand, if he
keeps Peterson back in coverage, he takes away one of those route runners
but leaves other guys like Rumph (if healthy), Williams or Heard in a
compromising position because they might be forced to hold up too long in
coverage without a pass rush.

Special Teams

San Francisco has a chance to make up some ground in the special teams
department. The Seahawks' biggest concern so far has to be the sloppy play
of their cover units, as they have allowed returns of 51 and 47 yards. The
question, however, is whether the 49ers have the return specialist to
exploit that weakness. PR Arnaz Battle showed some flashes in the
preseason, but he's just a rookie and he is off to a slow start, averaging
one yard per punt return in four returns. The team's best bet might be on
a kickoff return, where Jamal Robertson currently ranks seventh in the NFL
with an average of 26.1 yards per attempt. Seattle has solid and reliable
return specialists in Bobby Engram and Maurice Morris, but neither has the
explosiveness to get make up for how poorly their own cover teams have
played.
The good news for the Seahawks is that they have an edge in terms of the
key personnel in the kicking game. The 49ers have been fortunate to get
strong play from PK Todd Peterson (hit all four FGAs) so far this season,
but he's just a middle-of-the-pack place kicker. While Andy Lee has a
bright future, he's just a rookie that has struggled with consistency. The
Seahawks' cover units might not be faring so well, but PT Tom Rouen and
his 44-yard per attempt average are not to blame. Josh Brown is also
solid, and he connected on his only attempt of the season from 44 yards
out last week.

Matchups

Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. San Francisco FS Ronnie Heard.

Seattle WR Darrell Jackson vs. San Francisco DC Ahmed Plummer.

San Francisco FB Fred Beasley vs. Seattle MLB Orlando Huff.

San Francisco WR Curtis Conway vs. Seattle LDC Ken Lucas.

San Francisco LOT Kwame Harris vs. Seattle RDE Grant Wistrom.

Prediction: Seahawks 26, 49ers 19

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:28 PM

Take 2: Buccaneers vs. Raiders

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Buccaneers and Raiders. Now they're back with a
second look.
Some are questioning why Jon Gruden wouldn't stay with rookie QB Chris
Simms this week. The last thing Gruden wants to do is ruin his young
quarterback's confidence by exposing him to the craziness of the "black
hole" in Oakland. Gruden needs quarterback play that does not make
mistakes or turn the ball over, and Brad Johnson still gives him his best
chance for success. But don't be surprised if they go back to Simms in
Week 4, especially if they lose this week.
Jon Gruden's offensive objective is to use shifting and motion to create
the illusion that the Tampa Bay's offense is complex and sophisticated,
when in fact it is very basic in its play design. The Raiders must
predetermine defensive calls for Tampa's shifting and motion so that they
are not trying to get lined up during Brad Johnson's snap count.
Johnson has an excellent clock in his head; he processes information
quickly, and the ball almost always comes out on time. To break down the
timing and rhythm of the Bucs' horizontal passing game, the Raiders must
do two things throughout the game: 1) press the Bucs' WRs so that their
routes are disrupted and Johnson's dropback footwork no longer correlates
to the progression of the routes and 2) blitz when overload situations
present themselves so that Johnson must get rid of the ball before he
wants to.
The Bucs' receivers have a glaring inability to get separation from tight
man-to-man coverage. This unit lacks speed and explosiveness. When they
struggle to get open, Johnson holds on to the ball too long and the pass
protection breaks down. The quarterback and offensive line often take the
blame instead of the receivers.
The Bucs' defense did a great job last week, holding Seattle RB Shaun
Alexander to only 2.6 yards per carry average. But here's the most amazing
stat: The Seahawks were just 1-for-14 on third down conversions. This
defense does a good job of putting offenses in third-and-long situations,
making it difficult to penetrate their tough cover two defense on third
down.
The entire Bucs' offensive line is struggling, in terms of chemistry; they
are beginning to look like a mediocre pass protection unit. ROT Todd
Steussie is really struggling, especially when he is on an island without
a tight end next to him. When the Bucs use a seven-step drop and Steussie
has to take a deep set, his lack of quickness and ability to adjust are
exposed.
The Bucs are still a good one-gap penetrating defensive front, but they
rely on quickness, and at times, can get worn down by big between the
tackles run games. Without a lot of depth on the offensive line, there is
not a great "wave" and rotation, and it could eventually hurt this
defense. But they should be fine this week against the Raiders, who have
no commitment to the run game whatsoever.
The Bucs are one of the best defenses in the red zone, finishing first in
2002 and second in 2003. Currently, they are tied for first. They haven't
been tackling particularly well between the 20s, but they are a physical
group that really tightens up when their backs are up against the wall.
Tampa's offense lacks rhythm and flow right now. They must work hard to
manufacture drives and cannot rely on big plays as they have done in the
past. Unless this offense gets going, you may start to see some
locker-room division between the offense and defense. Gruden is excellent
at managing players and will make sure this does not get out of hand.
Oakland DE Tyler Brayton is off to a fast start and is being used in a
variety of roles. One of the more interesting roles is the "Elephant End"
position that the 49ers used for years, and Fred Dean played it to
perfection. He is a stand-up pass rusher who is also capable of dropping
into coverage, but it requires a good athlete.
In the first two weeks, the Raiders have utilized a lot of run blitzes,
especially on first and second downs. And it should do the same thing this
week against an immobile Brad Johnson. The Raiders know that the Bucs
struggle in second- and third-and-long situations.
RDE Warren Sapp will obviously be on an emotional high for this game, and
the Bucs may decide to run right at him. They can't move NT Ted Washington
in the middle, but they can negate Sapp's one-gap quickness and
penetrating skills by attacking him in the run game and not letting him
chase plays down from the backside.
Jerry Rice is, at best, the fifth receiver on the Raiders; he's the only
receiver that can't go vertical. Jerry Porter, Doug Gabriel, Alvis Whitted
and Ronald Curry are all young guys that can stretch the field, and the
number of snaps Rice gets will continue to decrease as the year goes on.
The Raiders have a big, powerful offensive line, but they seem to be using
a finesse run game. They are using a lot of wide plays, counters and
cutbacks, but their personnel seems more suited to use a north-south power
run game between the tackles.
The Bucs will struggle in the red zone against the Raiders because the
field shrinks. The Raiders' man-to-man coverage becomes more effective
when teams are unable to run inside against Ted Washington. Underused
power RB Mike Alstott needs to become a bigger part of the game plan,
especially close to the goal line.
The Raiders will go with a wide-open passing attack featuring three- and
four-receiver sets to try and loosen up the Bucs- cover-2 defense. The
Bucs like to have their corners "squat" on short routes, but with so many
vertical threats, the Bucs will have to sit back more than usual, which
will open up the underneath routes and make the defense softer against the
run.
It will be important for the Bucs' corners to "funnel" the Raiders
receivers inside when they have safety and linebacker help. If the speedy
Raider receivers get clean outside releases, it puts a lot of pressure on
the safeties. Neither Barber or Kelly are good turn-and-run guys.
The Raiders one weak link in coverage is SS Derrick Gibson. He is more of
a run support and zone-coverage guy. But the Bucs may throw more on first
and second down against the Raiders' base defensive package to get Gibson
matched up on a back or tight end.
OLB Derrick Brooks really flashes when he defends screen passes. He has an
uncanny ability to "sniff" out the screen, get through traffic and make
the play. His instincts are outstanding.
The Bucs' offense must avoid a lot of three-and-outs to keep their defense
off the field. Ten of their drives in Week 2 did not last more than five
plays.
Raiders DC Charles Woodson is playing in nickel and dime package as a
range, almost zone-type corner. The Raiders love his ability to cover a
lot of ground and entertained the thought of moving him to safety a few
years ago. The ability to put Woodson in space, just to be an athlete can
help this secondary make more big plays.

Special Teams

Field position will be a big part of the success or failure for these two
struggling offenses. With both defenses playing well, we are likely to see
a big number of punts. The Raiders have the league's leading punter in
Shane Lechler (47.6), and the coverage units are doing a good job, holding
opponents to less than 7 yards per punt return. The Bucs have struggled on
punt returns, averaging only 4.5 yards per return.
Both field-goal kickers have had limited opportunities for PATs, but they
are are making the most of their field-goal opportunities. Oakland PK
Sebastian Jankowski has made 4 of 4 attempts for the Raiders, but his leg
strength has not been tested yet, as his longest field goal is just 38
yards. Tampa Bay PK Martin Gramatica has made all three of his field-goal
attempts.

Matchups

Tampa Bay LOT Derrick Deese vs. Oakland RDE Warren Sapp.

Oakland WR Jerry Porter vs. Tampa Bay DC Brian Kelly.

Oakland LOG Frank Middleton vs. Tampa Bay RDT Anthony McFarland.

Oakland LOT Barry Sims vs. Tampa Bay RDE Simeon Rice.

Oakland QB Rich Gannon vs. Tampa Bay WLB Derrick Brooks.

Prediction: Buccaneers 16, Raiders 10

**wayne1218** · 09-24-2004, 11:29 PM

Take 2: Cowboys vs. Redskins

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Cowboys and Redskins. Now they're back with a
second look.
It is shame that Dallas does not have a go-to running back, because the
left side of the offensive line, LOT Flozell Adams and LOG Larry Allen, is
really playing well right now and the veterans have found the fountain of
youth.
The Redskins are a good enough matchup group in the secondary to stay with
the Cowboys' receivers, which means the key to success for the Cowboys
falls back on the running game. That's not good. The Redskins will use a
lot of coverage schemes and dare the Cowboys to run the ball at them. They
will also blitz, to both disrupt the run and stop the pass. The Redskins
are not afraid to put their corners in man-to-man coverage versus these
receivers.
After using SS Roy Williams in coverage in Week 1, the Cowboys now having
him playing closer to the line of scrimmage in run support, where he is
much more effective. However, when Williams is in the box, it puts
pressure on the corners because they have no safety help behind them. When
they play zero coverage schemes they are in a high-risk, high-reward
strategy. Williams will be a force versus Clinton Portis, but Laveranues
Coles and Rod Gardner will be licking their chops at the prospect of being
matched up one-on-one versus CBs Pete Hunter and Terence Newman.
Under Gregg Williams, the Redskins' defense is one of the most aggressive
in the NFL. In each of their first two games, they blitzed on 57 percent
of their defensive snaps. One thing the Cowboys must factor into their
protection schemes is the corner blitz; in fact, there have been a number
of plays where the Redskins sent both corners, and they were unaccounted
for in the blocking scheme, and not recognized by the QB in his hot
reading progression.
The Cowboys must build their passing game on the concept of maximum
protection, making certain they have enough blockers to counter the
Redskins' high-percentage blitz approach. When Vinny Testaverde is
comfortable in the pocket, with room to step and throw, he is a pretty and
accurate passer. When there's pressure, whether it's actually there or
Vinny just perceives it, he will not process information quickly, break
down with his technique, and force the ball into coverage.

ArringtonRedskins WOLB LaVar Arrington will have a big year after
switching back to the weak side. He is a great athlete who was being
wasted playing over a tight end. He can now blitz, chase down plays, and
avoid contact on the way to the ball.
The Redskins are committed to a blitz-heavy package with their seven new
starters on defense. An attacking scheme compensates for only average
personnel. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is very aggressive and is
blitzing almost 70 percent of the time, putting big pressure on opposing
quarterbacks. But in return they gave up some big plays and Testaverde
will have good matchups on the perimeter if the offensive line and backs
can pick up the blitz.
A big goal of the Cowboys' defense is to play solid football on first and
second down and force the Redskins into third-and-long situations. The
Cowboys could have good success versus QB Patrick Ramsey, who is capable
of forcing a throw on third down, which is exactly what they want.
The Redskins struggled last week versus a heavy Giants blitz package. The
Giants overloaded one side and came after the quarterback, forcing Portis
to pass block on blitz pick up and restricting him from being an outlet
receiver. The Cowboys will likely copy the Giants' game plan and come
after Ramsey.
With the blitz likely from the Redskins, Testaverde needs to have a strong
game in terms of his recognition. He will have to identify his hot reads
and get the ball into the underneath zones vacated by the blitz. The
Redskins may bring a linebacker on the blitz and drop a defensive lineman
into coverage and Testaverde must be very aware.

WittenA key player in this matchup is Cowboys TE Jason Witten. He really
stands out on film. He has good speed, good quickness in and out of
breaks, and he is as versatile as any TE in the NFL, including Tony
Gonzalez and Todd Heap. The Cowboys line him up all over the formation,
including split on the outside, which is how they started the game last
week against Cleveland. They got him matched against SS Robert Griffith,
and Witten beat Griffith on a quick slant for a first down.
When you play the Redskins' offense, the biggest single matchup a defense
faces is before the ball is snapped, the pre-snap phase. Joe Gibbs takes a
select group of plays, adds shifting and motion before the snap, and tries
to force the defense into predictable fronts and coverages so that the
successful execution of those plays is most viable.
Joe Gibbs loves having a big power back, but the jury is still out to see
if Portis fits the bill. Portis has great explosiveness and open field
speed, but in the first two games most of his production has come off
tackle, on seeps or counters. He has not shown the ability to run
north/south and get the tough inside yards.
The Cowboys may use Witten on vertical routes designed to run off the
Redskins' safeties and open up some underneath routes for Keyshawn
Johnson. The Cowboys will not be afraid to throw to Witten if he can split
the defense and get a good one-on-one matchup.

Special Teams

Billy Cundiff is struggling on his kickoffs and the Dallas coverage unit
is bailing him out, but the Cowboys are vulnerable to a big return.
Washington KR Chad Morton has the ability to break off a big run if he
gets a short kick.

Matchups

Washington WR Laveranues Coles vs. Dallas LCB Terence Newman

Dallas TE Jason Witten vs. Washington FS Andre Lott or Sean Taylor

Washington LOG Derrick Dockery vs. Dallas ROT La'Roi Glover

Dallas WR Keyshawn Johnson vs. Washington RCB Fred Smoot

Washington RB Clinton Portis vs. Dallas MLB Dat Nguyen

Prediction: Redskins 17, Cowboys 16

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