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By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
This is an off week for college football, with very few big games. One exception
is Friday night's Bowling Green-Northern Illinois game that might help decide
the MAC this year. While we can't decide who will win that contest, we do like
UAB to hold off Memphis in a battle that might decide Conference USA this year.
In other games, we expect Boise State, Notre Dame and Navy to keep rolling and
Oregon State to possibly upset Arizona State Saturday night.
One could have made a tidy sum going against our best bets the last three weeks,
but undaunted, we'll press on, pointing to Boise State and Wisconsin to right
our ship this week.
Thursday
Kent State -7 vs. Akron: Kent is coming together at the right time for
first-year coach Doug Martin, who ran the offense last season. This is a veteran
team on both sides of the ball, led by versatile QB Joshua Cribbs. Last
Saturday, the Golden Flashes nearly upset Rutgers on the road, falling 29-21.
What was particularly good to see was how they fought back from a 16-0 deficit
at halftime. Rutgers needed a pair of late field goals to salt things away.
The Akron Zips are having a difficult time under new coach (former Pitt
assistant) J.D. Brockhart. They have already been blown out by Penn State and
Virginia. QB Charlie Frye struggled in those games, but fared much better in a
home loss to Middle Tennessee. Cribbs & Co. simply look like too much for the
Zips to hold off here.
The pick: Kent State.
Friday
Bowling Green + 1½ at Northern Ill.: There are too many questions in this one to
come away with a definitive opinion. Northern Ill. is now playing the fourth
game of a brutal stretch. The Huskies began the season losing 23-20 at Maryland.
They then held off in-state rival Southern Ill., 23-22, before losing a wild one
at Iowa State, 48-41. After watching Iowa State nearly shut down Iowa's offense,
we dispensed with most of our doubts about backup QB Phil Horvath, who threw
four TD passes against the Cyclones, but also had four interceptions. Horvath
has been in the last two games because starter Josh Haldi left the Marland game
with a foot injury.
Despite the grueling schedule, we don't expect the Huskies to give anything but
their best here. This is a matchup between probably the two best teams in the
MAC this year. Two years ago Northern Ill shocked Bowling Green. Last year, the
Falcons got their revenge. The loss probably kept the Huskies from going to a
bowl. Bowling Green is loaded again, as witnessed by their admirable stand
against Oklahoma in the season opener. While the Huskies have been putting it
all on the line each week, the Falcons have been getting ready for this one
since Oklahoma. In this league, the home team has a very strong record in these
power match ups.
The pick: We'll pass, with too many unanswered questions.
Boise State -21½ over BYU: The Broncos are a team on a mission. What they did to
Oregon State was truly amazing, scoring 34 straight points after falling behind
14-0. Finishing that game with 53 points against the team that nearly stopped
LSU cold was an awesome display of firepower. That power is led by quarterback
Jarred Zabransky. Last week, Boise was surprised and nearly fell victim to
UTEP's passing game. BYU doesn't have that type of threat through the air. The
Broncos won this game 52-10 at BYU last year, and we don't expect any letup this
week.
The pick: Boise State in another blowout. (best bet).
Saturday
Wake Forest-1 vs. Boston College: This looks like Jim Grobe's most talented team
at Wake Forest. With the return of running back Micah Andrews last week (17-125,
3 TDs vs. N. Carolina A&T), the Deacons will be very tough the rest of the
season. The concern is the defense, which yielded 407 yards at East Carolina two
weeks ago. BC is led by QB Paul Peterson, who looked a little like Doug Flutie
against Penn State two weeks ago. After two emotional games, defeating Penn
State and UConn, the Eagles might not be quite as sharp here. Wake won this
matchup last year and we think they'll repeat here.
The pick: Wake Forest, in a game they have to win.
Virginia Tech -9 vs. N.C. State: While N.C. State's defense played valiantly in
last week's home loss to Ohio State, the offense showed just how much it misses
Philip Rivers running the show. Jay Davis struggled against Ohio State, only
passing for 99 yards and throwing three INTs. That's a far cry from the
Rivers-led offense. The Hokies, on the other hand, keep laying it on their
opponents. Ever since their tough 24-13 opening loss to USC they've looked like
a machine on both sides of the ball. W. Michigan and Duke aren't in USC's class,
but it's nice to see how sharp coach Frank Beamer has the boys.
The pick: Virginia Tech to roll on.
UAB +2 vs. Memphis: We're giving UAB another chance, after being stopped cold by
Florida State's defense last week in Tallahassee. This is a big game for both
teams and might decide Conference USA supremacy. The UAB Blazers are a solid,
experienced team and have beaten Memphis by 13 or more each of the last three
seasons. We expect Darrell Hackney to bounce back and throw for at least two TDs
against Memphis' suspect defense. There's nothing wrong with the Tigers'
offense, led by RB DeAngelo Williams. It won't be easy, but UAB seems to know
how to beat this team. Throw in the home field and a few points, and the
decision is made easier.
The pick: UAB.
Navy -8 vs. Vanderbilt: Navy quarterback Aaron Polanco isn't a great player, but
he is capable of running Paul Johnson's famed triple option. Kyle Eckel can
pound the ball with the best. Vanderbilt is coming off a crushing overtime loss
to Mississippi in a game it should have won. Jay Culter is a veteran QB and
might give the Navy defense some problems. But the Middies' triple option will
be much tougher to figure out for a team that sees it but once a year.
The pick: Navy.
Notre Dame -10 over Washington: The Irish are on a roll, only two games after it
looked like the world was coming to an end. Coach Ty Willingham still hasn't
explained why he kept Darius Walker under wraps at BYU – especially with Ryan
Grant on the shelf. Perhaps he thought he could squeak by BYU without tipping
his hand. Regardless, after dominating Michigan and Michigan State, it's obvious
how good the Irish can be this year. Next comes a Washington team that looks
made to order for the Irish. The Huskies gave up 400 yards on the ground in a
37-31 loss to UCLA last week. We don't expect them to get well at Notre Dame.
The pick: Notre Dame.
Ball State +3 over Western Michigan: We'll try and make this simple. Ball State
is better than most think and is especially tough at home. W. Michigan isn't as
bad as the 63-0 drubbing it took from Virginia Tech and not quite as good as it
looked nearly upsetting Illinois last Saturday. This appears to be a "sandwich
game" for Western Michigan, with Toledo coming to town next week. Ball State
probably isn't as bad it looked losing at Purdue and at Missouri the last two
weeks. Last year, the Cardinals upset Toledo at home.
The pick: Ball State, especially with W. Michigan still feeling the effects of
blowing the Illinois game.
Wisconsin -3 vs. Penn State: We thought Penn State might be different with Galen
Hall now running the offense. But it looked like the same Penn State against
Boston College last week, with Zack Mills throwing four interceptions. Wisconsin
is probably better than than it looked against Arizona last week. It was
actually a pretty good win under the circumstances. The Badgers are winning with
defense, which isn't a bad way to win when your top running back (Anthony Davis)
is out. The offensive line is still solid and should be able to drive through a
Penn State defense that looks much tamer on the road. The Nittany Lions have
lost nine of their last 10 road games, with their only victory coming at
Indiana.
The pick: Wisconsin, in a game that shouldn't be that close. (best bet).
Oregon State + 7½ at Arizona State: This is a game Oregon State has to win. The
opening loss at LSU was a bitter one after dominating most of the game. The loss
at Boise five days later was expected, but the Beavers never stopped attacking.
Last week's 17-7 victory at home over a decent New Mexico team was actually a
breather. It showed how well the defense could play. Derek Anderson to Mike Haas
is about as potent a passing combo as there is in college football this year.
Arizona State had a coming out party last week against Iowa. The Sun Devils
caught Iowa flat, in between games against Iowa State and at Michigan. Andrew
Walter threw for 428 yards after looking ordinary at Northwestern the week
before. Northwestern proved the Sun Devil defense to be vulnerable and you might
expect Oregon State to try to pick it apart.
The pick: Oregon State. The Sun Devils are still celebrating the Iowa win.
Passing thoughts.....................
We suspect an embarrassed Iowa team will show a lot better at Michigan this
week. Neither of these Big Ten rivals has looked good this year… A couple of
live underdogs this week could be Duke, hosting Maryland and East Carolina,
hosting Cincinnati. Can't see Maryland taking Duke seriously while still licking
their paws after losing in OT to W. Virginia last week. Cincy showed amazing
vulnerability losing at Syracuse after whipping up on rival Miami of Ohio, and
might not take East Carolina that seriously, either. The latter's offense can
move the ball this year… Arkansas not only has the home field advantage this
week against Alabama, but a big emotional advantage as well. The Tide have lost
the heart of their team, quarterback Brodie Croyle, for the season… Don't be
surprised if Virginia rolls against Syracuse this week like it did against
Temple, N. Carolina and Akron. Coach Al Groh seems determined to move up in the
polls and Syracuse looked very ordinary taking its first victory last week… Now
that Texas Tech exploded for 70 points last week, they are favored by a
touchdown at Kansas. That price seems to overrate the Red Raiders and underrate
the Jayhawks, who have improved immensely under coach Mark Mangino… USC is again
a big favorite at Stanford this week, which might have the quietest fans in the
country. Expect USC to travel a smaller, but louder contingent.
Last Week: 5-5; Season: 14-15 Best Bets: 1-3; Season: 1-8
Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last
season.
Special to ESPN Insider
This is an off week for college football, with very few big games. One exception
is Friday night's Bowling Green-Northern Illinois game that might help decide
the MAC this year. While we can't decide who will win that contest, we do like
UAB to hold off Memphis in a battle that might decide Conference USA this year.
In other games, we expect Boise State, Notre Dame and Navy to keep rolling and
Oregon State to possibly upset Arizona State Saturday night.
One could have made a tidy sum going against our best bets the last three weeks,
but undaunted, we'll press on, pointing to Boise State and Wisconsin to right
our ship this week.
Thursday
Kent State -7 vs. Akron: Kent is coming together at the right time for
first-year coach Doug Martin, who ran the offense last season. This is a veteran
team on both sides of the ball, led by versatile QB Joshua Cribbs. Last
Saturday, the Golden Flashes nearly upset Rutgers on the road, falling 29-21.
What was particularly good to see was how they fought back from a 16-0 deficit
at halftime. Rutgers needed a pair of late field goals to salt things away.
The Akron Zips are having a difficult time under new coach (former Pitt
assistant) J.D. Brockhart. They have already been blown out by Penn State and
Virginia. QB Charlie Frye struggled in those games, but fared much better in a
home loss to Middle Tennessee. Cribbs & Co. simply look like too much for the
Zips to hold off here.
The pick: Kent State.
Friday
Bowling Green + 1½ at Northern Ill.: There are too many questions in this one to
come away with a definitive opinion. Northern Ill. is now playing the fourth
game of a brutal stretch. The Huskies began the season losing 23-20 at Maryland.
They then held off in-state rival Southern Ill., 23-22, before losing a wild one
at Iowa State, 48-41. After watching Iowa State nearly shut down Iowa's offense,
we dispensed with most of our doubts about backup QB Phil Horvath, who threw
four TD passes against the Cyclones, but also had four interceptions. Horvath
has been in the last two games because starter Josh Haldi left the Marland game
with a foot injury.
Despite the grueling schedule, we don't expect the Huskies to give anything but
their best here. This is a matchup between probably the two best teams in the
MAC this year. Two years ago Northern Ill shocked Bowling Green. Last year, the
Falcons got their revenge. The loss probably kept the Huskies from going to a
bowl. Bowling Green is loaded again, as witnessed by their admirable stand
against Oklahoma in the season opener. While the Huskies have been putting it
all on the line each week, the Falcons have been getting ready for this one
since Oklahoma. In this league, the home team has a very strong record in these
power match ups.
The pick: We'll pass, with too many unanswered questions.
Boise State -21½ over BYU: The Broncos are a team on a mission. What they did to
Oregon State was truly amazing, scoring 34 straight points after falling behind
14-0. Finishing that game with 53 points against the team that nearly stopped
LSU cold was an awesome display of firepower. That power is led by quarterback
Jarred Zabransky. Last week, Boise was surprised and nearly fell victim to
UTEP's passing game. BYU doesn't have that type of threat through the air. The
Broncos won this game 52-10 at BYU last year, and we don't expect any letup this
week.
The pick: Boise State in another blowout. (best bet).
Saturday
Wake Forest-1 vs. Boston College: This looks like Jim Grobe's most talented team
at Wake Forest. With the return of running back Micah Andrews last week (17-125,
3 TDs vs. N. Carolina A&T), the Deacons will be very tough the rest of the
season. The concern is the defense, which yielded 407 yards at East Carolina two
weeks ago. BC is led by QB Paul Peterson, who looked a little like Doug Flutie
against Penn State two weeks ago. After two emotional games, defeating Penn
State and UConn, the Eagles might not be quite as sharp here. Wake won this
matchup last year and we think they'll repeat here.
The pick: Wake Forest, in a game they have to win.
Virginia Tech -9 vs. N.C. State: While N.C. State's defense played valiantly in
last week's home loss to Ohio State, the offense showed just how much it misses
Philip Rivers running the show. Jay Davis struggled against Ohio State, only
passing for 99 yards and throwing three INTs. That's a far cry from the
Rivers-led offense. The Hokies, on the other hand, keep laying it on their
opponents. Ever since their tough 24-13 opening loss to USC they've looked like
a machine on both sides of the ball. W. Michigan and Duke aren't in USC's class,
but it's nice to see how sharp coach Frank Beamer has the boys.
The pick: Virginia Tech to roll on.
UAB +2 vs. Memphis: We're giving UAB another chance, after being stopped cold by
Florida State's defense last week in Tallahassee. This is a big game for both
teams and might decide Conference USA supremacy. The UAB Blazers are a solid,
experienced team and have beaten Memphis by 13 or more each of the last three
seasons. We expect Darrell Hackney to bounce back and throw for at least two TDs
against Memphis' suspect defense. There's nothing wrong with the Tigers'
offense, led by RB DeAngelo Williams. It won't be easy, but UAB seems to know
how to beat this team. Throw in the home field and a few points, and the
decision is made easier.
The pick: UAB.
Navy -8 vs. Vanderbilt: Navy quarterback Aaron Polanco isn't a great player, but
he is capable of running Paul Johnson's famed triple option. Kyle Eckel can
pound the ball with the best. Vanderbilt is coming off a crushing overtime loss
to Mississippi in a game it should have won. Jay Culter is a veteran QB and
might give the Navy defense some problems. But the Middies' triple option will
be much tougher to figure out for a team that sees it but once a year.
The pick: Navy.
Notre Dame -10 over Washington: The Irish are on a roll, only two games after it
looked like the world was coming to an end. Coach Ty Willingham still hasn't
explained why he kept Darius Walker under wraps at BYU – especially with Ryan
Grant on the shelf. Perhaps he thought he could squeak by BYU without tipping
his hand. Regardless, after dominating Michigan and Michigan State, it's obvious
how good the Irish can be this year. Next comes a Washington team that looks
made to order for the Irish. The Huskies gave up 400 yards on the ground in a
37-31 loss to UCLA last week. We don't expect them to get well at Notre Dame.
The pick: Notre Dame.
Ball State +3 over Western Michigan: We'll try and make this simple. Ball State
is better than most think and is especially tough at home. W. Michigan isn't as
bad as the 63-0 drubbing it took from Virginia Tech and not quite as good as it
looked nearly upsetting Illinois last Saturday. This appears to be a "sandwich
game" for Western Michigan, with Toledo coming to town next week. Ball State
probably isn't as bad it looked losing at Purdue and at Missouri the last two
weeks. Last year, the Cardinals upset Toledo at home.
The pick: Ball State, especially with W. Michigan still feeling the effects of
blowing the Illinois game.
Wisconsin -3 vs. Penn State: We thought Penn State might be different with Galen
Hall now running the offense. But it looked like the same Penn State against
Boston College last week, with Zack Mills throwing four interceptions. Wisconsin
is probably better than than it looked against Arizona last week. It was
actually a pretty good win under the circumstances. The Badgers are winning with
defense, which isn't a bad way to win when your top running back (Anthony Davis)
is out. The offensive line is still solid and should be able to drive through a
Penn State defense that looks much tamer on the road. The Nittany Lions have
lost nine of their last 10 road games, with their only victory coming at
Indiana.
The pick: Wisconsin, in a game that shouldn't be that close. (best bet).
Oregon State + 7½ at Arizona State: This is a game Oregon State has to win. The
opening loss at LSU was a bitter one after dominating most of the game. The loss
at Boise five days later was expected, but the Beavers never stopped attacking.
Last week's 17-7 victory at home over a decent New Mexico team was actually a
breather. It showed how well the defense could play. Derek Anderson to Mike Haas
is about as potent a passing combo as there is in college football this year.
Arizona State had a coming out party last week against Iowa. The Sun Devils
caught Iowa flat, in between games against Iowa State and at Michigan. Andrew
Walter threw for 428 yards after looking ordinary at Northwestern the week
before. Northwestern proved the Sun Devil defense to be vulnerable and you might
expect Oregon State to try to pick it apart.
The pick: Oregon State. The Sun Devils are still celebrating the Iowa win.
Passing thoughts.....................
We suspect an embarrassed Iowa team will show a lot better at Michigan this
week. Neither of these Big Ten rivals has looked good this year… A couple of
live underdogs this week could be Duke, hosting Maryland and East Carolina,
hosting Cincinnati. Can't see Maryland taking Duke seriously while still licking
their paws after losing in OT to W. Virginia last week. Cincy showed amazing
vulnerability losing at Syracuse after whipping up on rival Miami of Ohio, and
might not take East Carolina that seriously, either. The latter's offense can
move the ball this year… Arkansas not only has the home field advantage this
week against Alabama, but a big emotional advantage as well. The Tide have lost
the heart of their team, quarterback Brodie Croyle, for the season… Don't be
surprised if Virginia rolls against Syracuse this week like it did against
Temple, N. Carolina and Akron. Coach Al Groh seems determined to move up in the
polls and Syracuse looked very ordinary taking its first victory last week… Now
that Texas Tech exploded for 70 points last week, they are favored by a
touchdown at Kansas. That price seems to overrate the Red Raiders and underrate
the Jayhawks, who have improved immensely under coach Mark Mangino… USC is again
a big favorite at Stanford this week, which might have the quietest fans in the
country. Expect USC to travel a smaller, but louder contingent.
Last Week: 5-5; Season: 14-15 Best Bets: 1-3; Season: 1-8
Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last
season.
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