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**Nalordo** · 09-21-2004, 05:11 PM

I wasn't a huge fan of last weeks card as the only game that really jumped out at me was the Colts over Tennesse. That being said, I like this week far less. Anyway, on to the games (Lines are from Pinnacle as of 9/21 and plays are from 1 to 5 units):

SUMMARY OF PLAYS (Read below for analysis):

1 UNIT - STEELERS +1
3 UNITS - TITANS -5.5
2 UNITS - RAVENS -3
2 UNITS - CARDINALS +10
2 UNITS - RAIDERS -3

Pittsburg Steelers @
Miami Dolphins (-1)
Over/Under 33.5

One of the few games I was able to watch from start to finish this past weekend was the Sunday Night Football game with the Bengals and Dolphins. I cannot ever remember seeing a worse offensive line in the NFL than the one the Dolphins trot onto the field. They also may have the worst quarterback in the league not named Kyle Boller or Brad Johnson. Roethlisberger actually looked solid when he came in the game last week against a good defense (which is the one thing the Dolphins have). I've gotta make a small play here on the Steelers.

Play: 1 UNIT - STEELERS +1

Jacksonville Jaguars @
Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Over/Under 35.5

This is my game of the week (if any game can be called that this week). The Jaguars have been good defending against the run, but this is the first game they've played against a team that has a more balanced offense. McNair will make sure his team gets a win this week. I wish the line was 3, as I hate to lay more than that to really good defensive teams, but I think the Titans will beat that spread.

Play: 3 UNITS - TITANS -5.5

Cleveland Browns @
New York Giants (-2.5)
Over/Under 37

Hell if I know.

Play: NO PLAY

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @
Cinncinnati Bengals
Over/Under 35

I'm still a bit timid to bet on any team with Kyle Boller as QB, but I still somehow can't get the idea out of my head that the Ravens are a good team overall. The Bengals struggled mightily against a good defense last week, which is what they face again this Sunday. I like the Ravens here for a small play.

Play: 2 UNITS - RAVENS -3

Houston Texans @
Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Over/Under 47.5

The Chiefs sport the defensive version of Kyle Boller (Sorry for all the Boller jokes, but it just drives me nuts that professional football teams not only play, but START guys that bad when there are probably backups on other teams that could produce better). The Texans have actually disappointed starting 0-2 after looking like a better team in the preseason. I'm not going to bet this game, but my "Crazy Call of the Week" is the Texans on the Money Line. Just a hunch.

Play: NO PLAY

New Orleans Saints @
St Louis Rams (-7)
Over/Under 47.5

On a web log website this past week, someone submitted the news story about people moving into the Saints' Dome to escape the hurricane with a funny headline. The headline read something like this: "New Orleans allows hurricane refuges into Supedome for shelter. Refuges defeat Saints 46-7". That says it all. The Rams stink too though, so no play.

Play: NO PLAY

Chicago Bears @
Minnesota Vikings (-9)
Over/Under 44.5

My gut instinct is clearly not giving the Bears enough credit, and that burned me last week. My hope is to watch this game so I can get a better read on the team. So for now, no play.

Play: NO PLAY

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @
Detroit Lions
Over/Under 44.5

The NFL clearly loves the eagles, as could be seen on Monday Night. I'm pretty confident the Eagles win this game, but Detroit's defense has been solid enough, that that minus 4 scares me away.

Play: NO PLAY

Arizona Cardinals @
Atlanta Falcons (-10)
Over/Under 43

This pick will make anyone reading think I'm crazy for sure. I actually have a hunch the Cardinals will win this game outright. I know, I know, I'm insane, though I'm certainly not crazy enough to take the money line. Everyone in the media is going overly crazy over Vick after he had a nice game against the (quickly declining) Rams. Arizona, meanwhile, has played opponents closer than was to be expected. I don't know, I'm just not sold on the Falcons yet, and I think the Cardinals are going to play many teams close this year.

Play: 2 UNITS - ARIZONA +10

San Diego Chargers @
Denver Broncos (-10)
Over/Under 46

This is another big dog that I like to keep the game close. The problem is I just don't like betting against Denver at home. This game just feels like too much of a coin flip to risk money on.

Play: NO PLAY

Green Bay Packers @
Indianapolis Colts (-6)
Over/Under 48.5

My first instinct on this game was the Colts for a big bet, but after I let it sink in, I just don't like this game at all. James being out contributes largely to that. Farve and Green will likely score at will against the shoddy Colt defense. My lean now is actually towards the Packers, but I'm not going to play it.

Play: NO PLAY

San Francisco 49ers @
Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
Over/Under 44

The 49ers have actually played freakishly well so far. The Seahawks are a team, like the Bears, that I just don't trust my read on, I clearly think they're worse than they are. No play here.

Play: NO PLAY

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Oakland Raiders (-3)
Over/Under 34

The Buccaneers sure don't look like they're going to win many games this year. The Raiders actually have a shot at winning the garbage jumble that is the AFC West this year. At home, giving only a field goal, against a bad team. Gotta play the Raiders.

Play: 2 UNITS - RAIDERS -3

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NFL Plays 9/26

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