NFL Monday (food for thought)

[wizardofoddz]

The last 8 times these two teams MINNESOTA/ PHILADELPHIA have met, the posted total has never been over 44½,
The average total between these two teams is 40½ dating back to 12/1/85

MINNESOTA has not covered the number the last 5 as a visting team in the regular season.

[Kaptain]

Wiz

The old Kaptain likes the Eagles, leery of the over/under, therefore I am going to tease this lil puppy...

Teaser----Eagles and OVER...lol what ever you do...anxious to see your pick...kmann

[hazsupport]

Wiz

So does line maker set the total high so people will take the under or does he know it's going to be high scoring so he sets the total high? Ever hear of the 47/37 rule? If a total is set @ 47 or higher it's better to take the under and if 37 or lower it's better to take the over. Theres a % given to this around 60% I think. Personally I'm not much of a trend player unless there are other factors that point to a given side. hc

[misspiggy]

Hazsuuport

I think what Wiz is trying to point out that why is the line set at 49 if these two teams have a posted total averaging 40 1/2 and never have they had a posted total higher than 44 1/2. He might be saying "they" are begging you to take Under cause the line tonight is set at 50.

I personally don't buy into reading this line with past trends because both teams are different this year especially the Iggles. The Iggles now have Owens and that's why the point total reflects a high score. Usually Philly plays NFC East football in low scoring fashion, but this Iggles team is anything but NFC East football. Iggles scored 31 points last week and Vikings scored 35. Plus, oddsmakers saw that Vinny Testaverde lit up the Vikings and McNabb should have success as well. So, that's why the total is so much higher this time around as both teams showed explosiveness, added players, and both teams showing weakness in the secondary. Actually, at 50 points the line seems very low. I will see who the public takes tonight, but my guess is everyone will have the Vikings across the board with Randy Moss being incredible on Monday Nights. Total should get split action.

[pascal5757]

TOTALS

I HAVE ALWAYS SEEN IT JUST THE OPPOSITE... IF NUMBER IS LOW 34-37 I PLAY UNDER (THINKING) IT IS THAT LOW FOR A REASON.
IF IT IS OVER 47 (THINKING) IT IS THAT HIGH FOR A REASON.
I DON'T BELIEVE IN THIS NOTION THAT THE LINES MAKERS SET IT HIGH TO GET YOU TO BET UNDER, OR SET IT LOW TO GET YOU TO BET IT OVER. I THINK THEY REALIZE THAT WE (INTELLEGENT GAMBLERS) ARE NOT GOING TO GO FOR THAT. ANYWAY THATS MY TWO CENTS WORTH.
.
NOW LETS KICK ASS TODAY

[wallstreet]

Neither team has a great defense, both have decent offenses. The past doesnt matter unless the teams are they same, which in the case of Philly they are NOT the same team as last year.

My thoughts are Minny and the over. I am not convinced that the Birds can keep up with a high scoring game. If Minny is wise, they blitz the crap out of McNubb.

[misspiggy]

Pascal

I have followed lines and bookies for a very long time and in the end I realize one can make a trend for just about anything. One can say line in Jets game was high at 47 and and why it sailed way over, but Chiefs game was at 47 also and went under. Just a coincidence. Ravens line was at 35 and went way over and one can say the same for any under that was set at 35. There is not one human being that can read what Vegas is doing or thinking. "Maybe because there is nothing to read" As gamblers we always think there is some kind of conspiracy and fixes going on. When a kicker misses, gamblers yell fix fix fix. Anyone ever think that the kicker really missed it Same with line setters. Anyone ever think that the lines are set to get even action instead of thinking "they" are trying to set gamblers up. Vegas is in business because we gamble and they play with odds. Why would they want to become gamblers instead of playing with the odds of making 10% off even action? Gamblers think with greed and think Vegas won't settle for 10%. But, the true millionaires of this country become rich with the corporate mentality, not the gambling mentality. The corporate mentality in this case would be to get your 10% profits every time you can. The gambling mentality would be to take risk by putting out a so called trap line and get uneven action on one side. I doubt the geniuses running casinos would do something and act like gamblers. They win because they play the odds, not cause they gamble.

[Sportsrmylife]

pascal

I follow your thinking as well. someone turned me onto the trend last year and now I want for it. You would be 2-1 ATS on the year playing under the lowest total and over the highest total with your loss the balt game yesterday that would have come in if not of a TD on an interception return.

I think that it is something to look into. Tonight is the over the phil/minny game.

[Dmurphy]

misspiggy - great write up. Very true and to the point. I just want to restate that the totals and lines on games are set to generate action on both sides.

[wizardofoddz]

Okay

I didn't try to point anyone in any direction, I just posted a trend..........
Some believe the line is set to get 50-50 on each side, while some believe the line is set to keep you off or get you on a side....
Bait or chum, you make the call, it's all in how you as an individual thinks...
But take notice of this thread and look up the results.


http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sh...242#post200242

[10DimeBry]

wiz

you dont have to sell me on anything. you do a great job capping games. I dont care what trends you have or dont have. I trust your plays. Thanks for the picks.


Bryan

[wizardofoddz]

Goldielocks (mispiggy)

Instead of worrying about me, post your picks...
Your saying you are well seasoned, SHOW US....
Now your going to tell people what I'm thinking?
GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!

[orientalhawn]

Wiz

Thanks for all the help

Looks like the UNDER

Minnesota has not covered last SIX now on the ROAD!!


sorry didn't know you played Minnesota

[checkers]

Against all odds....

sometimes you win.. sometimes you lose.. but most of the time you win...

[savage1]

Misspiggy-don't know about pro football but am convinced that in a number of NBA games, especially Laker games, there arfe attempts by players/officials to try to influence pointspread winner and/or total.
I have watched too many NBA games over many, many years to believe that many of shennanigans which go on especially in the game are sheer coincidence.