Friday's Play of the Day Thread

[BettorsChat]

nt

[crswir]

Winner

BC -7-


Record on plays of the day 0-1

[Kaptain]

Re: Winner

Originally posted by crswir
BC -7-


Record on plays of the day 0-1

good luck to you today...kmann

[scraper]

-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.


Season record:Ê233-241ÊÊ-23.65 UNITS

Ê

MIL (SHEETS) +187 over Hou (Oswalt) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific

SD (PEAVY) -111 over SF (Lowry) - 1 UNIT - 7:15pm Pacific

SEA (MECHE) +180 over Oak (Zito) - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm PacificÊ

[scraper]

Net Prophet

MLB:

Cincinnati (Hudson) +180 over Chicago Cubs (Zambrano)
Atlanta (Byrd) -142 over Florida (Kensing)
San Diego (Peavey) -114 over San Francisco (Lowry)

[scraper]

PPP

5*Nebraska (-4) over PITTSBURGH by 14
In this very spot last week, we tried to fade Pittsburgh as 18 point home
favorite vs. Ohio U. A large part of our premise was the fact that
Pitt''s offense would miss a lot of production without OC Brookhart, QB
Rutherford, WR Fitzgerald and RB Miree. I was right as the Panthers were
outgained in their 24-3 SU ATS victory by a count of 290-215. Further
West, Nebraska was suffering a rare home loss to S. Miss, 21-17 as 14
point home favorite. Again the stats were not congruent with the final
score. Nebraska, under first year HC Callahan, played as advertised,
balancing their offense with 46 rushes for 274 yards and 202 PY on 22 /
42. They dominated S. Miss with a total yardage advantage of 476-239.
Yet, 5 critical turnovers were their undoing. Though the Panther defense
may be an underrated unit, they will be challenged beyond their means by
this balanced, powerful Nebraska offense. When the Panthers have the
ball, they will again be challenged by a Cornhusker defense that is far
superior to the Ohio Bobcats. No way the Panthers successfully play from
behind should Nebraska get a lead of any kind. In fact, this could get
ugly fast.

2*
ALL SYSTEMS GO

Every Tuesday I isolate the Top 3 Technical plays of the week from a 25
year database. They went on an incredible run LY posting a 9 week record
of
20-7 (74%).

The linemaker makes his biggest adjustments in his power ratings based on
a team''s first two weeks of play. We take advantage in Week 3 with this
powerful situation that provides plenty of value and consistent winners.
Here it is:

Play against any Pick or Favorite to -35 if they began the year 2-0 SU ATS
being favored in both games.

24 year record, 50-20 ATS (71%)



Here are this week''s plays:

Akron +31 against Virginia
Tulane +18 against Louisville
UTEP +27 against Boise State

Please note that if this is a conference game (Tulane and UTEP), the
record is 26-4 ATS.



With the postponement of the Louisville / Tulane game, we substitute yet
another qualifying game in this situation, also providing great line
value.



Utah State +19 against Utah

Though this does not qualify under the 26-4 ATS conference game, this
fierce in-state rivalry will certainly carry that significance for Utah
State.



------------------------------------------------------------------------


2*STEAMROLLERS



Every Wednesday I analyze (3) College Crushers that will Steamroll the
opposition based on statistical mismatches.


VIRGINIA TECH (-26) over Duke by 35
duke has begun the season a characteristic 0-2. Yet, their losses, 12-27
to Navy and 20-22 vs. UConn, belie their stats. For example, in last
week''s 2 point loss, they were outgained 461-252. Now they must travel
for a third consecutive week to face Virginia Tech in their ACC opener.
Hokies have gotten off to fast starts in recent years and now stand 12-1
ATS in their first four games of L3+Y. They totally destroyed W. Michigan
LW, racking up a yardage edge of 487-272 in a 63-0 win. Duke is very
young, playing alot of true Frosh and has already suffered defensive
injuries. In addition, Tech''s defensive front should dominate an
inexperienced Duke OL. For technical support, know that teams to 32 who
won by 51+ and allowed 6 or less last week, now stand 91-35 ATS, including
19-3 ATS recently.

MISSOURI (-24-) over Ball State by 35
Last two years have seen Missouri win this matchup 41-6 and 35-7 LY. This
should be worse. In LY''s game, Missouri outrushed Ball, 290-41. In L2Y,
Missouri Heisman candidate QB Smith has averaged greater than 10 ypr vs.
Ball State. After last week''s embarrassing 24-14 national TV loss to Troy
and with 10 days to prepare, don''t expect any letup from the Tigers. Ball
State was badly mauled by Purdue LW, trailing 45-0 at the half and being
outgained 599-297. Young Cards'' defense is already without two injured
starters. Clearly stepping up in class has not been advantageous for Ball
who has allowed 46 ppg vs. winning non-conference teams. Expect Missouri
to steamroll this one with a least a 300-400 total yardage advantage. For
technical support, consider that home favorites -19+ / loss as RF are 21-5
ATS.

NEVADA (-14) over Buffalo by 24
Horrible spot for Buffalo who faces a rare altitude game after playing
their hearts out vs. Big Brother Syracuse. Yet, in that 37-17 loss, they
were only able to muster 222 yards of offense. Meanwhile, Ault''s "Air
Wolf" attack was wiping out Sac. State, 59-7, on a 598-277 yardage
advantage. With gradual return to health of RB Kretschmer, (the nation''s
leading rusher in his freshman year) the Wolfpack will be balanced and
explosive. For tech support, consider that HF to -32 who scored 50, won by
48 and allowed 13 or less, are 66-28 ATS, including 48-13 ATS if they
outrushed their previous foe by 175+.

------------------------------------------------------------------------



3*Reality vs. Perception
by Joe Gavazzi



Every week, I select three games that I feel go "against the grain" of
public perception.

Maryland (+7) over W. VIRGINIA by 1

Perception: W. Virginia will get their double revenge from last year
(quadruple revenge for Rodriguez vs. Friedgen) for a 34-7 loss last
September and 41-7 in the Gator Bowl. They are now equipped to do so with
a 15-9 edge in returning starters in what is deemed to be the best
Mountaineer team in the Rodriguez era (2-0 SU ATS) and the worst team in
the Friedgen era (0-2 ATS).

Reality: In the early 80''s I created a concept called "DIA-DIA," when
College rivalries truly meant something. It was a highly successful way to
isolate rivalry underdogs who had dominated their opposition in recent
years. In other words, "DOGS IN ACTION - DO IT AGAIN." The combined score
of the four meetings between these two has been 155-51 or an average of
39-13. With the extra value created by the teams'' dichotomous ATS starts,
I expect this dog in action to do it again. Refer to All Systems Go for
our 50-20 ATS angle for Game 3 dogs vs. teams who began 2-0 SU ATS as
favorite.

N. Illinois (+2-) over IOWA STATE by 7

Perception: Iowa State is among the most improved defensive teams in the
country, following their disasterous 2003 season in which they went 2-10
SU, 1-10 ATS, allowing 36 ppg. In two games to date , they shutout N.
Iowa, 23-0, and covered easily against rival Iowa, 17-10, as +23.
Northern, the public perceives, is a major notch down, starting 0-2 SU,
without RB Turner and senior QB Haldi (out with a stress fracture in his
foot). Cyclones should blow them away.

Reality: Iowa State is indeed improved but not to the point the linemaker
and public consider. N. Illinois is the team who remains underrated. In
Week 1 they took an avenging Maryland team to the limit, losing 20-23 as
+17. Last week, their 23-22 win vs. SIU was against DIV 1-AA''s best. In
the process, RB Harris is averaging 5.1 ypr and QB play has been solid.
This line would have been NIU -10 in the opening week. On Saturday, it''s
NIU by a "T.D."

Ohio State (-1-) over NC STATE by 10

Perception: The Wolfpack have barely missed a beat without QB Rivers as
they returned 19 starters to what many consider to be Amato''s best team
ever. Playing with triple overtime, 44-48 revenge from LY and falling into
70% "rested momentum home dog" situations following their 42-0 opening day
win vs. Richmond (who?), they will easily get a victory vs. an Ohio State
team returning just 9 starters and taking a new QB on the road for the
first time.

Reality: There''s clearly little, if any, dropoff in Ohio State "D" who
has allowed balanced, explosive and experienced offenses of Cincinnati and
Marshall to combine for just 27 points. Though QB Zwick is still learning,
this could well be Tressel''s best offense at Ohio State. And what''s to
say that new Wolfpack QB Davis will be a quality performer in his first
major contest? Key stat: Ohio State wins games. They''re 25-2 SU L2Y and
are 16-5 SU in games decided by 7 or less points in the Tressel era. Maybe
that''s because they have the best field goal kicker in the country.

[trick4]

2 10*'s

LA -115
Det+110