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Overview
The Panthers and Chiefs' style of play is as similar as country music and hip-hop. The Panthers will look to control the field and the clock in order to put their defense in the best position possible to take over the game. The Chiefs, on the other hand, will look to turn Sunday's matchup into a track meet.
They'll try to give QB Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes, TE Tony Gonzalez and company as many possessions as possible in order to give them the best chance to outscore the Panthers.
While all the focus will be on the matchup between the Chiefs' high-powered offense and the Panthers' stingy defense, the outcome of Sunday's game could be decided on the other side of the ball, as the Chiefs must find a way to stiffen against the Panthers' powering running game that features RB Stephen Davis. Without vertical threat Steve Smith (broken left leg) that task becomes much more manageable.
When the Panthers have the ball
Rushing: Sunday night's debut against the Clinton Portis-less Broncos was not what new Chiefs defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham had in mind. The Chiefs had hoped -- and still hope for that matter -- that the infusion of Cunningham's simpler yet more aggressive scheme would help mask the fact that the organization did not make a single personnel upgrade on a unit that finished 29th in the NFL last year in total defense. But early indications are not good, as Broncos RB Quentin Griffin rushed for 156 yards and scored three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) in last week's opener.
While the style is different, the Panthers' emphasis on the run is even greater than that of the more balanced Bronco offense, which is not good news for the Chiefs. The Panthers clearly have some patching to do along their offensive line and they're not as talented on the right side with ROG Rich Tylski and Matt Willig as they were a year ago. Until this unit has more time to play together and jell it will continue to be less consistent than last year's group. Regardless, the Panthers are still bigger and stronger up front than the Chiefs are defensively and the combination of Davis and DeShaun Foster should wear Kansas City out.
Passing:
Smith's loss might be insurmountable for the Panther offense. With him, the Panthers had a consistent playmaker who they could rely on to come up big in key situations. Smith's mere presence forced opponents to play honest, which opened up several other avenues for the running game and WR Muhsin Muhammad.
Without him, the Panthers will struggle to prevent the Chiefs -- or any defense for that matter -- from overloading against the run. With all of that said, QB Jake Delhomme and Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning still have a chance to come up with some big plays via the passing game, as they are patient and wait for the right time to strike.
For starters, this projects as a classic chess match that will feature the strong safety as the pawn. Cunningham is known for his aggressive scheme. The Chiefs have big cornerbacks who the team uses in press coverage in the passing game and hopes can smother receivers and take them out of their routes long enough for the pass rush to get to the quarterback. It also relies on those cornerbacks to seal the perimeter in run support.
Cunningham often uses those cornerbacks in either straight-man coverage or man-free coverage, which means at least one safety can be cheated up near the line of scrimmage. With Smith out, Cunningham has a better chance of getting away with as many eight-man fronts as possible. But it is still a risk. When that's the case, FS Jerome Woods will likely be rolled to WR Muhammad's side to give the smaller Dexter McCleon help, which means Ricky Proehl and/or rookie Keary Colbert will have one-on-one matchups against either Warfield and/or Julian Battle.
While Muhammad now becomes the primary target with Smith out, occasionally look for the Panthers to exploit one-on-one matchups with their other two receivers (Proehl and Colbert) on fade routes and deep post-corner routes when they catch the Chiefs overextending to stop the run and cheating Woods over to Muhammad's side. Proehl obviously poses little threat vertically, but if the Panthers can get Colbert matched up against Battle in the slot they may have a mismatch to target.
When the Chiefs have the ball
Rushing: The Chiefs scored 24 points on the road against a much-improved Denver defense on Sunday night, but they still didn't look anything like the explosive offensive unit that we've become accustomed to over the course of the last two seasons. The biggest problem the Chiefs have offensively is their lack of weapons at the wide receiver, which is creating a trickle-down effect.
While Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton both played in the opener, neither showed the explosive speed to threaten vertically. Dante Hall has exceptional after-the-catch skills, but because of his marginal speed he isn't a deep threat either. As a result, opposing defenses aren't forced to respect the vertical passing game, which allows them not only to give more focus to Holmes and Gonzales, but also to pack it in against the run.
While Holmes, who ripped off 151 yards on 26 carries against the Broncos, will still find ways to be productive behind his outstanding offensive line, the Chiefs' lack of vertical weapons makes it tougher and also limits the amount of big plays he can break. The Panthers don't exactly have the size and experience at cornerback to leave them on islands, but they still will take chances with SS Mike Minter cheated up closer to the box than usual. With one of the stoutest and most active front sevens in the NFL, Minter's presence on first and second down will make Holmes' live that much more difficult.
Passing: Last week, the Broncos used DC Champ Bailey primarily in man-to-man coverage against Holmes. While the Panthers aren't likely to do that with either of their cornerbacks because Chris Gamble is a rookie and Ricky Manning is undersized, the point is that defenses don't need to respect Kennison and Morton.
The good news for the Chiefs is that the Panthers not only lack a "shutdown" cornerback like Bailey, but they also have two first-year starters in their secondary (Gamble and FS Colin Branch). The best chance the Chiefs have is to spread the field with their three-receiver sets and find ways to get Gonzalez matched up on Branch, as well as to utilize the veteran savvy of Kennison and Morton in the short-to-intermediate zones against the rookie Gamble on the perimeter.
In order to do so, they must deal with one of the league's most dangerous front-four pass rushes. Because Holmes is such a threat as a receiver out of the backfield and Gonzalez is such a dangerous receiver, it should limit the amount of blitzes the Panthers run. The Chiefs' offensive line is one of the best pass-blocking units in the NFL, but even it can't keep the Panthers from penetrating a good deal of the time. With that in mind, Green must make quicker decisions this week than he did a week ago in order to avoid a multi-sack game and to exploit those favorable matchups.
Scouts' Edge
The Chiefs are not as bad as they looked on either side of the ball last Sunday night, but they do have more problems than people might have thought entering the season. Their lack of vertical weapons at wide receiver is creating a domino effect for the rest of the offense. Hall is no longer the return threat he was when he didn't have to play so much on offense. And defensively, the Chiefs might be more aggressive under Cunningham but their personnel remains marginal.
The Panthers are another team that isn't as strong as people like to believe. While they boast the NFL's best defensive front four and one of its best front sevens, the Panthers' secondary can be exposed and the Chiefs have the offensive line and enough versatility in their passing attack to do so.
Without Smith to stretch the field on offense and with a patchwork offensive line that clearly is a shell of last year's unit, the Panthers will struggle to control the clock and the field. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest venues in the NFL and it's that much tougher to play in as a visitor in the home opener. The Chiefs are still extremely vulnerable on defense, but the Panthers simply lack the weapons to exploit those weaknesses and, as a result, Carolina simply won't be able to keep up.
The Panthers and Chiefs' style of play is as similar as country music and hip-hop. The Panthers will look to control the field and the clock in order to put their defense in the best position possible to take over the game. The Chiefs, on the other hand, will look to turn Sunday's matchup into a track meet.
They'll try to give QB Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes, TE Tony Gonzalez and company as many possessions as possible in order to give them the best chance to outscore the Panthers.
While all the focus will be on the matchup between the Chiefs' high-powered offense and the Panthers' stingy defense, the outcome of Sunday's game could be decided on the other side of the ball, as the Chiefs must find a way to stiffen against the Panthers' powering running game that features RB Stephen Davis. Without vertical threat Steve Smith (broken left leg) that task becomes much more manageable.
When the Panthers have the ball
Rushing: Sunday night's debut against the Clinton Portis-less Broncos was not what new Chiefs defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham had in mind. The Chiefs had hoped -- and still hope for that matter -- that the infusion of Cunningham's simpler yet more aggressive scheme would help mask the fact that the organization did not make a single personnel upgrade on a unit that finished 29th in the NFL last year in total defense. But early indications are not good, as Broncos RB Quentin Griffin rushed for 156 yards and scored three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) in last week's opener.
While the style is different, the Panthers' emphasis on the run is even greater than that of the more balanced Bronco offense, which is not good news for the Chiefs. The Panthers clearly have some patching to do along their offensive line and they're not as talented on the right side with ROG Rich Tylski and Matt Willig as they were a year ago. Until this unit has more time to play together and jell it will continue to be less consistent than last year's group. Regardless, the Panthers are still bigger and stronger up front than the Chiefs are defensively and the combination of Davis and DeShaun Foster should wear Kansas City out.
Passing:
Smith's loss might be insurmountable for the Panther offense. With him, the Panthers had a consistent playmaker who they could rely on to come up big in key situations. Smith's mere presence forced opponents to play honest, which opened up several other avenues for the running game and WR Muhsin Muhammad.
Without him, the Panthers will struggle to prevent the Chiefs -- or any defense for that matter -- from overloading against the run. With all of that said, QB Jake Delhomme and Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning still have a chance to come up with some big plays via the passing game, as they are patient and wait for the right time to strike.
For starters, this projects as a classic chess match that will feature the strong safety as the pawn. Cunningham is known for his aggressive scheme. The Chiefs have big cornerbacks who the team uses in press coverage in the passing game and hopes can smother receivers and take them out of their routes long enough for the pass rush to get to the quarterback. It also relies on those cornerbacks to seal the perimeter in run support.
Cunningham often uses those cornerbacks in either straight-man coverage or man-free coverage, which means at least one safety can be cheated up near the line of scrimmage. With Smith out, Cunningham has a better chance of getting away with as many eight-man fronts as possible. But it is still a risk. When that's the case, FS Jerome Woods will likely be rolled to WR Muhammad's side to give the smaller Dexter McCleon help, which means Ricky Proehl and/or rookie Keary Colbert will have one-on-one matchups against either Warfield and/or Julian Battle.
While Muhammad now becomes the primary target with Smith out, occasionally look for the Panthers to exploit one-on-one matchups with their other two receivers (Proehl and Colbert) on fade routes and deep post-corner routes when they catch the Chiefs overextending to stop the run and cheating Woods over to Muhammad's side. Proehl obviously poses little threat vertically, but if the Panthers can get Colbert matched up against Battle in the slot they may have a mismatch to target.
When the Chiefs have the ball
Rushing: The Chiefs scored 24 points on the road against a much-improved Denver defense on Sunday night, but they still didn't look anything like the explosive offensive unit that we've become accustomed to over the course of the last two seasons. The biggest problem the Chiefs have offensively is their lack of weapons at the wide receiver, which is creating a trickle-down effect.
While Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton both played in the opener, neither showed the explosive speed to threaten vertically. Dante Hall has exceptional after-the-catch skills, but because of his marginal speed he isn't a deep threat either. As a result, opposing defenses aren't forced to respect the vertical passing game, which allows them not only to give more focus to Holmes and Gonzales, but also to pack it in against the run.
While Holmes, who ripped off 151 yards on 26 carries against the Broncos, will still find ways to be productive behind his outstanding offensive line, the Chiefs' lack of vertical weapons makes it tougher and also limits the amount of big plays he can break. The Panthers don't exactly have the size and experience at cornerback to leave them on islands, but they still will take chances with SS Mike Minter cheated up closer to the box than usual. With one of the stoutest and most active front sevens in the NFL, Minter's presence on first and second down will make Holmes' live that much more difficult.
Passing: Last week, the Broncos used DC Champ Bailey primarily in man-to-man coverage against Holmes. While the Panthers aren't likely to do that with either of their cornerbacks because Chris Gamble is a rookie and Ricky Manning is undersized, the point is that defenses don't need to respect Kennison and Morton.
The good news for the Chiefs is that the Panthers not only lack a "shutdown" cornerback like Bailey, but they also have two first-year starters in their secondary (Gamble and FS Colin Branch). The best chance the Chiefs have is to spread the field with their three-receiver sets and find ways to get Gonzalez matched up on Branch, as well as to utilize the veteran savvy of Kennison and Morton in the short-to-intermediate zones against the rookie Gamble on the perimeter.
In order to do so, they must deal with one of the league's most dangerous front-four pass rushes. Because Holmes is such a threat as a receiver out of the backfield and Gonzalez is such a dangerous receiver, it should limit the amount of blitzes the Panthers run. The Chiefs' offensive line is one of the best pass-blocking units in the NFL, but even it can't keep the Panthers from penetrating a good deal of the time. With that in mind, Green must make quicker decisions this week than he did a week ago in order to avoid a multi-sack game and to exploit those favorable matchups.
Scouts' Edge
The Chiefs are not as bad as they looked on either side of the ball last Sunday night, but they do have more problems than people might have thought entering the season. Their lack of vertical weapons at wide receiver is creating a domino effect for the rest of the offense. Hall is no longer the return threat he was when he didn't have to play so much on offense. And defensively, the Chiefs might be more aggressive under Cunningham but their personnel remains marginal.
The Panthers are another team that isn't as strong as people like to believe. While they boast the NFL's best defensive front four and one of its best front sevens, the Panthers' secondary can be exposed and the Chiefs have the offensive line and enough versatility in their passing attack to do so.
Without Smith to stretch the field on offense and with a patchwork offensive line that clearly is a shell of last year's unit, the Panthers will struggle to control the clock and the field. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest venues in the NFL and it's that much tougher to play in as a visitor in the home opener. The Chiefs are still extremely vulnerable on defense, but the Panthers simply lack the weapons to exploit those weaknesses and, as a result, Carolina simply won't be able to keep up.