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Indy/Ten Scouts, Inc Report

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  • Indy/Ten Scouts, Inc Report

    Overview
    Last season's co-MVPs, Steve McNair and Peyton Manning, square off in what promises to be one of the premier games in Week 2 of the 2004 season. The Titans got off to an impressive start with a season-opening win at Miami, while the Colts were heartbroken with another loss in New England.

    However, after losing both games to the Colts a season ago, which eventually led to the tiebreaker between the two AFC South teams, the Titans will be looking to take advantage of home-field advantage in order to exact revenge and re-stake their claim as the team to beat in the division.

    In order to do so, the Titans need to re-establish the running game that they debuted in the first half of last week's win over the Dolphins in order to keep Manning and the Colts off of the field. But is RB Chris Brown (ankle) up to the task after missing the second half of last week's game? The Titans' secondary had three interceptions in the opener, but even this much-improved group won't be able to hold up against the Colts' daunting passing attack without the help of a time-consuming offense.


    When the Colts have the ball
    Rushing: The Titans held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards on 20 total carries last week, but that can't be considered a true indication of what their run defense will be for the entire 2004 season. Against a much more consistent offensive line, a much more balanced offensive attack and a much more effective running back in Edgerrin James, don't expect the Titans' defensive front, which is inexperienced in some areas and injury-riddled in others, to hold up nearly as well.

    As always, the Colts' goal on offense is to establish a running attack early on in the game that will set up the play-action passing series for QB Peyton Manning. While the Titans are extremely quick up front defensively with DT Albert Haynesworth and former DE Kevin Carter in the middle and DEs Carlos Hall and rookie Antwan Odom getting penetration off the perimeter, they are not as big, strong or deep up front as they need to be to consistently hold up versus the run for four quarters. With that in mind, we might see more of James in this game than usual, as the Titans are much better equipped to defend the pass than they are against the run in this matchup.

    Passing: The Titans showed off their healthy and deep secondary last week with three interceptions in the unit's debut against the Dolphins. Not only did starting DCs Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson look sharp in mostly man-to-man coverage, but the defense also got strong play from sub-package DBs Andre Woolfolk and Lamont Thompson. Rolle, Dyson and Thompson each had one interception in the game.

    The presence of Keith Bulluck also gives the Titans an advantage in this area because of his potential to silence James as a receiver out of the backfield. In all reality, the Titans are one of the few teams in the NFL that have the personnel to match up against the Colts' three-receiver set of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley. However, because of the Titans' inexperience and injuries to their front seven, this screams of a game that the Colts will use a majority of two-tight sets.

    Not only will the extra tight end give the Colts an advantage in the running game in terms of blocking matchups, but it also gives them an advantage in the passing game because it allows them to exploit MLB Rocky Calmus and OLB Rocky Boiman with TEs Dallas Clark and Marcus Pollard. The longer the Colts can keep the Titans in their base defensive personnel the better, as it will allow them to attack Calmus and Boiman underneath. And if the Titans start to cheat their safeties up in order to get them more involved in run support as well as man-to-man coverage against Clark and Pollard, that's when Manning will strike on a quick slant or post route to Harrison or Wayne.

    When the Titans have the ball
    Rushing:
    The biggest question for the Titans heading into Sunday's game will be the status of Brown, who gained 100 yard on 16 carries against the Dolphins last week but missed the second half with a sprained left ankle. Initial word is that Brown will play, but there have to be questions as to how explosive he will be and how long he can hold up without re-aggravating the injury?

    If Brown is healthy and can carry a full load, the Titans should be able to establish a strong rushing attack against the Colts' defense. Not only are the Titans bigger and stronger up front, but they also are more experienced and consistent than the Colts' defensive line. This is clearly a game in which the Titans need to establish a strong rushing attack in order to control the time of possession and keep the Colts' offense off the field. The Colts are quick and could give the Titans some trouble in terms of penetration and pass rushing, but they are undersized along their defensive line, as well as both outside linebacker spots with David Thornton and Cato June.

    While Antowain Smith's powerful running style will certainly come in handy in terms of accomplishing the goal of wearing this undersized Colts defensive front seven down, he doesn't have the burst or cutback skills to give the Titans what they need to win this game. With a healthy Brown, the Titans should be able to control the tempo and drag the Colts into the fourth quarter. Without Brown, things could get away from Tennessee.

    Passing: The Titans' main objective is obviously to establish a strong running game that will work in their favor in terms of controlling the pace of things and limiting the Colts' offensive possessions. However, after watching Tom Brady spread the ball around to seven different receivers in a 335-yard passing performance last Thursday night, McNair has to be excited about the possibilities.

    The Titans don't have the depth at wide receiver to spread the Colts out as much as the Patriots did, but they do have enough weapons in WRs Derrick Mason and Drew Bennett, TE Erron Kinney and RB Brown to attack some of the glaring weaknesses in the Colts' cover-2 zone.

    For starters, the Colts were unable to get consistent enough pressure on Brady. They sacked him twice but weren't in his face enough, which led to the Patriots' receivers being able to consistently get out of their breaks and find soft spots in the zone. By consistently "chipping" DE Dwight Freeney and making sure that he was accounted for at all times, the Patriots were able to keep the rush to a minimum.

    With a veteran offensive line and an even more mobile quarterback in McNair, the Titans should be as successful when it comes to pass protection. By no means will the Titans rack up the type of numbers that the Patriots did in the opener, but if the running game is established and if McNair has some favorable cover-3 looks with a strong safety cheated up to work against, the Titans will have good overall consistency in the air and will come up with some big plays of their own in the vertical passing game.

    Scouts' Edge
    Tennessee RB Brown will play a big role in the outcome of this game. The Titans have enough offensive firepower to open things up and challenge a Colts secondary that is reeling after giving up three touchdown receptions a week ago. However, the Titans know they can't get into a shootout with Manning, Harrison, James and company.

    If Brown is healthy and effective in a 25-plus carry load, the Titans will make this a much more physical game and will drag the Colts into the fourth quarter. If Brown isn't himself or isn't able to carry a full load, the Colts will catch a huge break. Either way, the Colts will take their third-consecutive game from the Titans and their second-consecutive road win in this series, but it will take another monster effort from the offense to overcome the defense's inequities.
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