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I'm new to posting on this board, but I've been following it for some time. I've decided, in an effort improve my NFL betting, to post and keep track of my picks and analysis here. Anyway, on to the games (Lines are from Pinnacle as of 9/15 and plays are from 1 to 5 units):
Denver Broncos (-3) @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under 39
I'm not convinced that Denver's defense has improved significantly from last year, however, Jacksonville's offense isn't going to blow anyone away regardless. Still, I would lean slightly towards the Broncos here, but don't like betting on Jake Plummer teams against good defensive teams.
Play: NO PLAY
Pittsburg Steelers @
Balitmore Ravens (-3.5)
Over/Under 35.5
A team I can't figure out versus a team I lost a large play on last week. Baltimore WAS my potential surprise pick to make the super bowl, but with Kyle Boller at QB, I just can't see the offense ever functioning on all cylinders. I think the Steelers are a very mediocre team, but this line is just right to keep me from playing it. I do like a small play on the under, however.
Play: 1 UNIT - UNDER 35.5
Houston Texans @
Detroit Lions (-3)
Over/Under 43.5
Another two teams that just aren't very good. The lions won last week, but needed to get lucky against a bad team. The Texans lost to a poor (but better than some people seem to think) Chargers team. I just don't like a play here.
Play: NO PLAY
Indianapolis Colts @
Tennesse Titans (-1)
Over/Under 47
This is easily my play of the week. The Colts fumbled away the big game against the Patriots last week, but I still believe they are one of the best teams in the league, and they certainly don't want to start out in an 0-2 hole. I don't really love playing against the Titans at home, but McNair was very mediocre last week and Chris Brown may not be 100%. I like the Colts to win outright, possibly by more than a touchdown.
Play: 5 UNITS - COLTS +1
Chicago Bears @
Green Bay Packers (-9)
Over/Under 40.5
The Packers routed Carolina on the road, I like them to do the same against the Bears at home. If the line was 7, I'd like a big play here, but as it stands, I like a medium play.
Play: 2 UNITS - GREEN BAY -9
Washington Redskins (-2.5) @
New York Giants
Over/Under 40.5
As the Fish guy from Star Wars says at the end of Return of the Jedi: "It's a trap!". This line scares me. The Giants look terrible, the Redskins look solid and the line is actually under a field goal (granted, it's in New York). I actually have a hunch that the Giants will win this game, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
Play: NO PLAY
San Francisco 49ers @
New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Over/Under 42
San Francisco probably has the worst team (talent wise) in the NFL. New Orleans is probably the most underachieving team in the NFL. Two hard teams to figure out equals no play.
Play: NO PLAY
St Louis Rams @
Atlanta Falcons (-2)
Over/Under 46.5
Lots of matchups I don't like this week it seems like. I feel like the Falcons are not a good team at this point, but the Rams struggled with Arizona. I like the Rams to win this one, but I again would not bet on it.
Play: NO PLAY
Carolina Panthers @
Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Over/Under 46.5
Carolina, at least last year, tended to play teams close, but I just don't think they are that strong of the team. Meanwhile, KC needs to stave off a 0-2 start much like the Colts. I like KC with a decent sized play here.
Play: 3 UNITS - KANSAS CITY -6
Seattle Seahawks (-3) @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under 37
They looked bad last week, but Tampa Bay, after a week of being chewed out by John Gruden will beat a Seahawks team that I still think will struggle more often than not on the road.
Play: 2 UNITS TAMPA BAY +3
Cleveland Browns @
Dallas Cowboys (-4)
Over/Under 39
I actually think both of these teams are awful. I know the Cowboys had a decent record last year, but I think much of that is due to coaching and not talent (Though I do like Testaverde at QB much better). The Browns destroyed what I thought was a solid Baltimore defense. I like the Cowboys to win, but may not cover.
Play: NO PLAY
New England Patriots (-8) @
Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under 41
I hate betting on or against the Patriots, talent wise they just don't blow me away, but they continually get it done on the field. Still, I'll likely stay away from this one, though I would definately lean towards the Patriots.
Play: NO PLAY
Buffalo Bills @
Oakland Raiders (-3)
Over/Under 37.5
At first glance, I loved the Raiders in this one. After analyzing it a bit more, I still like the Raiders, but not as a huge play. I think the Bills will upset some people this year, and beating the Raiders would hardly be huge upset, but at home, I think the Raiders can clear this point spread.
Play: 1 UNIT - OAKLAND -3
New York Jets (-3) @
San Diego Chargers
Over/Under 46
As I said earlier, I think the Chargers are better than people think, but that being said, I think the Jets are better than people think as well. I think the Jets win here, but I'm not going to play it.
Play: NO PLAY
Miami Dolphins @
Cinncinnati Bengals (-5)
Over/Under 38.5
Here's yet another game with two teams I'm not big on. I actually think the Dolphins will win this game as Cinncinati will again get slammed for not going with Kitna to (at least) start the season, but again, no play.
Play: NO PLAY
I'll keep track of my record as the season progresses and will post a Monday Night pick either on Sunday or Monday. Glad to be part of the forum.
Denver Broncos (-3) @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under 39
I'm not convinced that Denver's defense has improved significantly from last year, however, Jacksonville's offense isn't going to blow anyone away regardless. Still, I would lean slightly towards the Broncos here, but don't like betting on Jake Plummer teams against good defensive teams.
Play: NO PLAY
Pittsburg Steelers @
Balitmore Ravens (-3.5)
Over/Under 35.5
A team I can't figure out versus a team I lost a large play on last week. Baltimore WAS my potential surprise pick to make the super bowl, but with Kyle Boller at QB, I just can't see the offense ever functioning on all cylinders. I think the Steelers are a very mediocre team, but this line is just right to keep me from playing it. I do like a small play on the under, however.
Play: 1 UNIT - UNDER 35.5
Houston Texans @
Detroit Lions (-3)
Over/Under 43.5
Another two teams that just aren't very good. The lions won last week, but needed to get lucky against a bad team. The Texans lost to a poor (but better than some people seem to think) Chargers team. I just don't like a play here.
Play: NO PLAY
Indianapolis Colts @
Tennesse Titans (-1)
Over/Under 47
This is easily my play of the week. The Colts fumbled away the big game against the Patriots last week, but I still believe they are one of the best teams in the league, and they certainly don't want to start out in an 0-2 hole. I don't really love playing against the Titans at home, but McNair was very mediocre last week and Chris Brown may not be 100%. I like the Colts to win outright, possibly by more than a touchdown.
Play: 5 UNITS - COLTS +1
Chicago Bears @
Green Bay Packers (-9)
Over/Under 40.5
The Packers routed Carolina on the road, I like them to do the same against the Bears at home. If the line was 7, I'd like a big play here, but as it stands, I like a medium play.
Play: 2 UNITS - GREEN BAY -9
Washington Redskins (-2.5) @
New York Giants
Over/Under 40.5
As the Fish guy from Star Wars says at the end of Return of the Jedi: "It's a trap!". This line scares me. The Giants look terrible, the Redskins look solid and the line is actually under a field goal (granted, it's in New York). I actually have a hunch that the Giants will win this game, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
Play: NO PLAY
San Francisco 49ers @
New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Over/Under 42
San Francisco probably has the worst team (talent wise) in the NFL. New Orleans is probably the most underachieving team in the NFL. Two hard teams to figure out equals no play.
Play: NO PLAY
St Louis Rams @
Atlanta Falcons (-2)
Over/Under 46.5
Lots of matchups I don't like this week it seems like. I feel like the Falcons are not a good team at this point, but the Rams struggled with Arizona. I like the Rams to win this one, but I again would not bet on it.
Play: NO PLAY
Carolina Panthers @
Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Over/Under 46.5
Carolina, at least last year, tended to play teams close, but I just don't think they are that strong of the team. Meanwhile, KC needs to stave off a 0-2 start much like the Colts. I like KC with a decent sized play here.
Play: 3 UNITS - KANSAS CITY -6
Seattle Seahawks (-3) @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under 37
They looked bad last week, but Tampa Bay, after a week of being chewed out by John Gruden will beat a Seahawks team that I still think will struggle more often than not on the road.
Play: 2 UNITS TAMPA BAY +3
Cleveland Browns @
Dallas Cowboys (-4)
Over/Under 39
I actually think both of these teams are awful. I know the Cowboys had a decent record last year, but I think much of that is due to coaching and not talent (Though I do like Testaverde at QB much better). The Browns destroyed what I thought was a solid Baltimore defense. I like the Cowboys to win, but may not cover.
Play: NO PLAY
New England Patriots (-8) @
Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under 41
I hate betting on or against the Patriots, talent wise they just don't blow me away, but they continually get it done on the field. Still, I'll likely stay away from this one, though I would definately lean towards the Patriots.
Play: NO PLAY
Buffalo Bills @
Oakland Raiders (-3)
Over/Under 37.5
At first glance, I loved the Raiders in this one. After analyzing it a bit more, I still like the Raiders, but not as a huge play. I think the Bills will upset some people this year, and beating the Raiders would hardly be huge upset, but at home, I think the Raiders can clear this point spread.
Play: 1 UNIT - OAKLAND -3
New York Jets (-3) @
San Diego Chargers
Over/Under 46
As I said earlier, I think the Chargers are better than people think, but that being said, I think the Jets are better than people think as well. I think the Jets win here, but I'm not going to play it.
Play: NO PLAY
Miami Dolphins @
Cinncinnati Bengals (-5)
Over/Under 38.5
Here's yet another game with two teams I'm not big on. I actually think the Dolphins will win this game as Cinncinati will again get slammed for not going with Kitna to (at least) start the season, but again, no play.
Play: NO PLAY
I'll keep track of my record as the season progresses and will post a Monday Night pick either on Sunday or Monday. Glad to be part of the forum.
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