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Take 2: Packers vs. Panthers
Our scouts take a second look at this week's matchup between the Packers
and Panthers. For their complete scouting report, check out the initial
breakdown.
Things are so bad along the Panther offensive line right now that the team
was forced to trade a conditional pick to the Steelers for OL Todd
Fordham, who has been a versatile OT/OG backup most of his career. While
he won't start right away, the team will consider using him over Matt
Willig at right tackle once Fordham has learned the system. The bottom
line as it pertains to this game is that the Panthers are in bad shape
along their offensive front, which is not good news for a team that relies
on its ability to run the football, control the clock and win with strong
defensive and special teams play.
The right side of the Panthers' offensive line is the biggest trouble
spot. Willig is 35 years old, has a history of injury and doesn't have
great feet. Rich Tylski is also a veteran journeyman with limited
athleticism. Neither has much experience playing next to the other, which
could lead to a lot of communication problems for a tandem that lacks the
athleticism to make up for mental mistakes.
Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slowik loves to blitz and he has the
athleticism at linebacker to do so -- particularly with MLB Nick Barnett
and WLB Na'il Diggs. With the aforementioned concerns for the Panthers on
the right side of their offensive line, expect Slowik to utilize the blitz
even more than usual in order to test Willig and Tylski's communication
and ability to adjust. Furthermore, the Packers have also moved Diggs to a
situational role as rush end on the left side on obvious passing downs.
DiggsWhile the team would obviously rather have a true end playing the
position, Diggs has the speed and closing burst to generate more of a pass
rush opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila than any of the team's existing
defensive ends. Diggs could have an unusually productive game if he's
turned loose more as a pass rusher because he's so much faster and
athletic than the aging Willig.
Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has the matchups on the perimeter -- with WRs
Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad working against DCs Al Harris and Michael
Hawthorne -- that he needs in order to be successful throwing the football
in Sunday's game, but he might not get enough opportunities to utilize
those mismatches. For starters, the Panthers will continue to be a
run-first football team, utilizing the philosophy of ball-control in order
to put its defense in the best position to win the game. Secondly, if the
Panthers have the trouble up front in pass protection that we anticipate
they will, Delhomme won't have the time. And finally, without legitimate
receiving weapons at tight end and running back, the Packers will be
afforded the opportunity to keep safeties Darren Sharper and Mark Roman in
deep support and/or to fill in the underneath zone vacated by blitzing
linebackers. In short, the Panthers' lack of weapons after Smith and
Muhammad really limits what they can and can't do in terms of creating
mismatches in the passing game.
If the Panthers do elect to spread it out from time to time with
three-receiver sets, an interesting matchup to monitor is the one between
rookies Keary Colbert (WR) and Ahmad Carroll (DC). For two generally
experienced football teams, this matchup between rookies could play a big
role if one of the two makes a big lay or critical error. Colbert will
split time with veteran Ricky Proehl, but Colbert's strong training camp
should lead to him getting more opportunities. Colbert isn't a great
vertical threat but he is quick, sure-handed and shifty after the catch.
Carroll, on the other hand, should eventually take over as the starter in
place of Hawthorne -- if Mike McKenzie doesn't return -- but because
Carroll had some trouble playing the ball in training camp he's being
protected inside as a slot cover corner in the nickel and dime packages.
If one of these two rookies makes a key mistake it could cost his team
greatly. If we had to predict which player is more liable to make that
mistake at this point, Carroll would be the choice.
RiveraThe Packer offensive line won't silence the NFL's best defensive
front, but few units are as well equipped to keep the damage of the
Panther defensive line to a minimum. Thanks to ROG Marco Rivera's ability
to handle LDT Brentson Buckner one-on-one, OC Mike Flanagan should be
freed up to help LOG Mike Wahle against the league's best all-around
defensive tackle, Kris Jenkins.
LOT Chad Clifton should more than hold his own against RDE Mike Rucker,
which leaves ROT Mark Tauscher vs. LDE Julius Peppers on the other side.
Peppers clearly holds the advantage in terms of quickness and athleticism,
which is why the Packers will have to give Tauscher help from "chipping"
tight ends and running backs, but Tauscher has the size and strength to
hold his own against Peppers in the running game if he can get in position
against him. Either way, the Packers are a lot better off against this
unit than most other teams in the NFL.
Carolina will be looking to blitz more this season and the return of SLB
Mark Fields will make that easier to do. Fields has terrific speed and he
shows a flair for closing on the quarterback quickly as an edge rusher.
Because of the threat of Fields blitzing more and also with the
understanding that Tauscher will need help in pass pro against Peppers,
look for the Packers to use a lot of max-protect schemes in the passing
game.
If they are using a three-receiver set, they likely will keep RB Ahman
Green in to block Fields and TE Bubba Franks in to help against Peppers.
If they are in two-receiver, two-back, one-tight end sets, Franks will
still help out against Peppers but FB William Henderson can help against
Fields, which will allow Green to release as a receiver, where he is very
dangerous. Because of the mismatches that the Packers have with their
receivers -- Donald Driver, Javon Walker and Robert Ferguson -- against
the Panthers' cornerbacks -- Ricky Manning Jr., Chris Gamble and Artrell
Hawkins -- the Packers will gladly go to max-protection, because if QB
Brett Favre has time to throw he should absolutely shred the Panther
secondary.
MinterAnother thing to look for from the Packers' offense is a game of
cat-and-mouse that they will play with SS Mike Minter. Because the Packers
have the talent up front to move the ball on the ground with relative
success, the Panthers may be forced to take some chances by cheating
Minter closer to the line of scrimmage as an extra linebacker-type against
the run. Minter is at his best in this role because of his size, strength,
overall run support skills, and ability to match up one-on-one against a
tight end like Franks in the short-to-intermediate zones. But since the
Packers will be prepared to keep Franks in to help in pass protection on a
frequent basis in this game, it's not as if they lose anything from a
pass-tree standpoint.
Furthermore, if Favre can catch Minter cheating on some first and second
downs, expect him to audible at the line. With Minter cheated up and DCs
Manning and Gamble overmatched on the outside, the Panthers are in a
vulnerable position in coverage. Favre will have an opportunity in this
situation to "negotiate the safety", which in this case is first-year
starter Colin Branch, who has never started an NFL regular season game.
Branch has great natural talent but his inexperience will lead to him
taking some false steps and making some false reads in his center
fielder's role. If Favre can catch Branch out of position, he'll have a
one-on-one on the opposite side that is bound to result in a big play.
Special Teams
While we think the Packers have the overall advantage on both sides of the
ball in this game, special teams is an area that could become an X-factor,
as the Panthers clearly have the edge. For starters, the Packers are
entering the game with a rookie punter in B.J. Sander, who was anything
but impressive during the preseason. That is very good news for a Panthers
team that makes a living on field position.
Secondly, the Packers have been utterly disappointed with the play of punt
return specialist Antonio Chatman, who they expected to have a breakout
training camp but instead made no big plays and made a couple of
questionable decisions. With a veteran place-kicker (John Kasay) a veteran
punter (Todd Sauerbrun), and reliable/explosive return specialists (PR
Smith and KOR Rod Smart), the Panthers will be ready to capitalize on a
special teams mistake made by the Packers. If Sander and/or Chapman make
critical mistakes in Sunday's game it could go a long way toward
overcoming all of the other shortcomings that the Panthers have in this
matchup.
Matchups
1. Green Bay ROT Mark Tauscher vs. Carolina LDE Julius Peppers.
2. Green Bay WR Javon Walker vs. Carolina DC Chris Gamble.
3. Green Bay LOG Mike Wahle vs. Carolina RDT Kris Jenkins.
4. Carolina WR Steve Smith vs. Green Bay LDC Michael Hawthorne.
5. Carolina RB Stephen Davis vs. Green Bay MLB Nick Barnett.
Prediction: Packers 23, Panthers 20
Our scouts take a second look at this week's matchup between the Packers
and Panthers. For their complete scouting report, check out the initial
breakdown.
Things are so bad along the Panther offensive line right now that the team
was forced to trade a conditional pick to the Steelers for OL Todd
Fordham, who has been a versatile OT/OG backup most of his career. While
he won't start right away, the team will consider using him over Matt
Willig at right tackle once Fordham has learned the system. The bottom
line as it pertains to this game is that the Panthers are in bad shape
along their offensive front, which is not good news for a team that relies
on its ability to run the football, control the clock and win with strong
defensive and special teams play.
The right side of the Panthers' offensive line is the biggest trouble
spot. Willig is 35 years old, has a history of injury and doesn't have
great feet. Rich Tylski is also a veteran journeyman with limited
athleticism. Neither has much experience playing next to the other, which
could lead to a lot of communication problems for a tandem that lacks the
athleticism to make up for mental mistakes.
Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slowik loves to blitz and he has the
athleticism at linebacker to do so -- particularly with MLB Nick Barnett
and WLB Na'il Diggs. With the aforementioned concerns for the Panthers on
the right side of their offensive line, expect Slowik to utilize the blitz
even more than usual in order to test Willig and Tylski's communication
and ability to adjust. Furthermore, the Packers have also moved Diggs to a
situational role as rush end on the left side on obvious passing downs.
DiggsWhile the team would obviously rather have a true end playing the
position, Diggs has the speed and closing burst to generate more of a pass
rush opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila than any of the team's existing
defensive ends. Diggs could have an unusually productive game if he's
turned loose more as a pass rusher because he's so much faster and
athletic than the aging Willig.
Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has the matchups on the perimeter -- with WRs
Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad working against DCs Al Harris and Michael
Hawthorne -- that he needs in order to be successful throwing the football
in Sunday's game, but he might not get enough opportunities to utilize
those mismatches. For starters, the Panthers will continue to be a
run-first football team, utilizing the philosophy of ball-control in order
to put its defense in the best position to win the game. Secondly, if the
Panthers have the trouble up front in pass protection that we anticipate
they will, Delhomme won't have the time. And finally, without legitimate
receiving weapons at tight end and running back, the Packers will be
afforded the opportunity to keep safeties Darren Sharper and Mark Roman in
deep support and/or to fill in the underneath zone vacated by blitzing
linebackers. In short, the Panthers' lack of weapons after Smith and
Muhammad really limits what they can and can't do in terms of creating
mismatches in the passing game.
If the Panthers do elect to spread it out from time to time with
three-receiver sets, an interesting matchup to monitor is the one between
rookies Keary Colbert (WR) and Ahmad Carroll (DC). For two generally
experienced football teams, this matchup between rookies could play a big
role if one of the two makes a big lay or critical error. Colbert will
split time with veteran Ricky Proehl, but Colbert's strong training camp
should lead to him getting more opportunities. Colbert isn't a great
vertical threat but he is quick, sure-handed and shifty after the catch.
Carroll, on the other hand, should eventually take over as the starter in
place of Hawthorne -- if Mike McKenzie doesn't return -- but because
Carroll had some trouble playing the ball in training camp he's being
protected inside as a slot cover corner in the nickel and dime packages.
If one of these two rookies makes a key mistake it could cost his team
greatly. If we had to predict which player is more liable to make that
mistake at this point, Carroll would be the choice.
RiveraThe Packer offensive line won't silence the NFL's best defensive
front, but few units are as well equipped to keep the damage of the
Panther defensive line to a minimum. Thanks to ROG Marco Rivera's ability
to handle LDT Brentson Buckner one-on-one, OC Mike Flanagan should be
freed up to help LOG Mike Wahle against the league's best all-around
defensive tackle, Kris Jenkins.
LOT Chad Clifton should more than hold his own against RDE Mike Rucker,
which leaves ROT Mark Tauscher vs. LDE Julius Peppers on the other side.
Peppers clearly holds the advantage in terms of quickness and athleticism,
which is why the Packers will have to give Tauscher help from "chipping"
tight ends and running backs, but Tauscher has the size and strength to
hold his own against Peppers in the running game if he can get in position
against him. Either way, the Packers are a lot better off against this
unit than most other teams in the NFL.
Carolina will be looking to blitz more this season and the return of SLB
Mark Fields will make that easier to do. Fields has terrific speed and he
shows a flair for closing on the quarterback quickly as an edge rusher.
Because of the threat of Fields blitzing more and also with the
understanding that Tauscher will need help in pass pro against Peppers,
look for the Packers to use a lot of max-protect schemes in the passing
game.
If they are using a three-receiver set, they likely will keep RB Ahman
Green in to block Fields and TE Bubba Franks in to help against Peppers.
If they are in two-receiver, two-back, one-tight end sets, Franks will
still help out against Peppers but FB William Henderson can help against
Fields, which will allow Green to release as a receiver, where he is very
dangerous. Because of the mismatches that the Packers have with their
receivers -- Donald Driver, Javon Walker and Robert Ferguson -- against
the Panthers' cornerbacks -- Ricky Manning Jr., Chris Gamble and Artrell
Hawkins -- the Packers will gladly go to max-protection, because if QB
Brett Favre has time to throw he should absolutely shred the Panther
secondary.
MinterAnother thing to look for from the Packers' offense is a game of
cat-and-mouse that they will play with SS Mike Minter. Because the Packers
have the talent up front to move the ball on the ground with relative
success, the Panthers may be forced to take some chances by cheating
Minter closer to the line of scrimmage as an extra linebacker-type against
the run. Minter is at his best in this role because of his size, strength,
overall run support skills, and ability to match up one-on-one against a
tight end like Franks in the short-to-intermediate zones. But since the
Packers will be prepared to keep Franks in to help in pass protection on a
frequent basis in this game, it's not as if they lose anything from a
pass-tree standpoint.
Furthermore, if Favre can catch Minter cheating on some first and second
downs, expect him to audible at the line. With Minter cheated up and DCs
Manning and Gamble overmatched on the outside, the Panthers are in a
vulnerable position in coverage. Favre will have an opportunity in this
situation to "negotiate the safety", which in this case is first-year
starter Colin Branch, who has never started an NFL regular season game.
Branch has great natural talent but his inexperience will lead to him
taking some false steps and making some false reads in his center
fielder's role. If Favre can catch Branch out of position, he'll have a
one-on-one on the opposite side that is bound to result in a big play.
Special Teams
While we think the Packers have the overall advantage on both sides of the
ball in this game, special teams is an area that could become an X-factor,
as the Panthers clearly have the edge. For starters, the Packers are
entering the game with a rookie punter in B.J. Sander, who was anything
but impressive during the preseason. That is very good news for a Panthers
team that makes a living on field position.
Secondly, the Packers have been utterly disappointed with the play of punt
return specialist Antonio Chatman, who they expected to have a breakout
training camp but instead made no big plays and made a couple of
questionable decisions. With a veteran place-kicker (John Kasay) a veteran
punter (Todd Sauerbrun), and reliable/explosive return specialists (PR
Smith and KOR Rod Smart), the Panthers will be ready to capitalize on a
special teams mistake made by the Packers. If Sander and/or Chapman make
critical mistakes in Sunday's game it could go a long way toward
overcoming all of the other shortcomings that the Panthers have in this
matchup.
Matchups
1. Green Bay ROT Mark Tauscher vs. Carolina LDE Julius Peppers.
2. Green Bay WR Javon Walker vs. Carolina DC Chris Gamble.
3. Green Bay LOG Mike Wahle vs. Carolina RDT Kris Jenkins.
4. Carolina WR Steve Smith vs. Green Bay LDC Michael Hawthorne.
5. Carolina RB Stephen Davis vs. Green Bay MLB Nick Barnett.
Prediction: Packers 23, Panthers 20
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