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  • ESPN Insider College Plays

    By Rich Podolsky
    Special to ESPN Insider

    Every season we must relearn expensive lessons. College Football is a highly
    emotional game, and the home team is usually charged. This week it's back to
    basics. The early season non-conference schedule has produced a string of
    mismatches again this week. Iowa, Oklahoma State and Cal look the best of them.
    Otherwise, we're staying "home" this week.


    Thursday

    Troy + 10½ over Missouri: This is Larry Blakeney's 14th year at coaching the
    Troy Trojans, and he's no stranger to playing top teams. Last year Troy started
    the season with expected losses at Kansas State and Minnesota before shocking
    UAB at UAB and upsetting Marshall in one of its few home games. You'd think
    Marshall would have been out for revenge in its home opener last week against
    Troy, but Troy pulled another upset, 17-15, keeping Marshall scoreless for most
    of the second half. When you think of Missouri you think of Brad Smith, one of the best running and
    throwing quarterbacks in the country. But Missouri isn't as strong as last year,
    although Smith can explode at any time. Both traits were in evidence last week,
    as the Tigers pounded Arkansas State for 35 first-half points while yielding a
    shocking 438 total yards (240 by air). Troy has nine starters back on defense
    and eight on offense and a tremendous home field advantage. This could be a
    shocking upset.
    The pick: Troy State.


    Friday

    Boise State -7½ over Oregon State: Talk about your tough losses. The Beavers
    controlled LSU nearly the entire game last Saturday night in Baton Rouge, then
    lost on three missed extra points -- one caused by a five-yard penalty for
    taking the TD ball back to the sideline. Then after overcoming two questionable
    defensive holding calls in OT and scoring what appeared to be the tying
    touchdown on 4th-and-10, the kid misses the point while coach Mike Riley
    desperately tries to call a time out. Would he have gone for two knowing what
    was about to happen? Then you've got to get on that plane and fly all the way
    back to Oregon. Then show up for practice on Labor Day to get ready for another
    road game Friday at a killer like Boisie State, which is just dying to avenge
    last year's controversial 26-24 loss at Oregon State. Sounds like a recipe for
    disaster for the Beavers. If all that's not enough, this game might mean more to the Broncos than winning
    the WAC. It's the only way they can get some national respect. Sure QB Ryan
    Dinwiddie is gone, but that wasn't you or me who hung 65 up against Idaho last
    weekend. Coach Dan Hawkins, entering his fourth year, is 33-6 at Boise and
    should have been considered for the Nebraska job. He knows how to win, and he
    knows how to rub it in. If he can, he'll do that to Oregon State, but that was
    no mediocre defense that slowed LSU most of the game.
    The pick: Boise State at -7 or less.

    Saturday
    Penn State -2 at Boston College: Joe Paterno made a smart move by hiring former
    Florida head coach Galen Hall and turning over the offense to him. With Boston
    College's top running back out for a month, scoring points and holding off Penn
    State's new multi-dimensional attack doesn't look easy. The Lions will have to
    find a way to stop BC's great defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka or at least slow
    his rush. Expect Hall to alternate QBs Zack Mills and Michael Robinson and to
    run pitch plays on Kiwanuka's side. The Lions will also want to avenge last
    year's shocking loss to the Eagles in Happy Valley.
    The pick: Penn State.

    Nebraska -14½ over Southern Miss: Southern Miss only returns four starters from
    a good defensive team, which should be enough of an opening for Bill Callahan's
    new 'Husker attack to score. There's nothing wrong with Nebraska's defense,
    though, which is one of the best in the country. If Nebraska could win this game
    on the Golden Eagles' field 38-14 last year, it should be just as easy this
    time. Besides, even though the Eagles' offense returns nine starters, it only
    managed a total of 19 points in four games against quality teams: Nebraska,
    Alabama, Cal and Utah last year. Don't expect much better here.
    The pick: Nebraska.

    Cincinnati +3½ over Miami of Ohio: Not sure Josh Betts is the second coming of
    Ben Rothlisberger. Throwing four interceptions at Michigan is no sin, but the
    Red Hawks never seemed to get their poise. The Bearcats, on the other hand
    looked very much in the game at Ohio State until late. Last year, Cincinnati
    staged a wild comeback to nearly knock off a powerful Red Hawk team in Miami. If
    anything this looks like a defensive battle, and there's no place like home in a
    game like that.
    The pick: Cincinnati.

    Iowa -24½ over Iowa State: Iowa State lost its final 10 games last year by an
    average of 34 points each. The only game they were in was an eight-point loss at
    Northern Ill. The first of those 10 losses was 40-21 thrashing they took at home
    by Iowa in a game that wasn't that close. Last week, Iowa State handled Northern
    Iowa, as you might expect, while Iowa beat up Kent. This could be Cyclones'
    coach Dan McCarney's last chance. He has better athletes this year, but they
    certainly aren't ready for the Hawkeyes yet. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is now one
    of the nation's best. His new freshman QB Drew Tate looked fantastic in his
    debut, which is more bad news for the Cyclones. This is for the recruiting wars,
    too.
    The pick: Iowa (best bet)

    Notre Dame + 13½ over Michigan: Notre Dame's No. 1 fan, Regis Philbin, was on TV
    the other day bemoaning that, "This isn't the Notre Dame that I know and
    remember." It sure isn't, Rege. The only other time the Irish were two-touchdown
    underdogs at home in recent memory was last year, when USC came through like a
    tank. Other than that, taking the Irish as a home dog has been a pretty good
    proposition. Losing to BYU appears to be embarrassing, but the effort wasn't all bad. The ND
    defense looked very good, especially in the second half. BYU was able to load up
    at the line with senior workhorse RB Ryan Grant out with a hamstring. He should
    be ready this week, which will be a big help, and you know coach Tyrone
    Willingham feels the heat. Sure Michigan is loaded, as usual, but the Wolverines are only 1-6-1 (straight
    up) in their last eight visits to South Bend. I just get the feeling this one's
    going down to the wire.
    The pick: Notre Dame.

    South Carolina +8 over Georgia: This is South Carolina' most important game the
    first half of the season and the game coach Lou Holtz has been getting ready
    for. Last year Holtz's Gamecocks blew out Virginia in this same spot, 30-0.
    Having read their press clippings, the next week they traveled to Georgia and
    had their lunch handed to them. The Bulldogs are thought to be good enough to vie for the national championship
    this year. They have a very quick defense and an improving offense, especially
    with Danny Ware running the ball. But the Bulldogs looked a bit unsettled
    against Georgia Southern last Saturday, yielding more than 300 yards to an
    option attack. Holtz has Demetris Summers back to pound the ball and Dondrial
    Pinkins to throw it. They both looked sharp in a surprisingly easy win at Vandy.
    And South Carolina plays oh so tough at home. The caveat: Georgia's one of the
    best road teams in the country.
    The pick: South Carolina.

    Oklahoma State -20½ over Tulsa: Oklahoma State is one of the best home teams in
    the business. Last year they went 6-1 at home, knocking off Kansas State and hot
    passing Texas Tech, losing only to Texas. The year before they upset both
    Nebraska and Oklahoma at home. Tulsa doesn't look or sound like any of those
    teams we've mentioned. While the Cowboys looked very good winning at UCLA, Tulsa
    looked very dull losing at much less talented Kansas. And they also have to
    contend with Oklahoma State running sensation Vernand Morency who ran for 261
    yards against the Bruins last week. It marked his third straight 200-yard game.
    The pick: Oklahoma State. (best bet)

    Southern Cal -24 over Colorado State: Unless you're worried about the Trojans
    being stale after a week off, you can proceed with enthusiasm here. Colorado
    State showed some guts and gumption fighting back against in-state rival
    Colorado last Saturday, but then they went for it all on the game's final play
    -- instead of an easy field goal and overtime -- and lost. Very tough way to get
    ready for the number one team in the country. The Rams are well coached and
    haven't lost by more than three TDs in a dog's age, but this is Southern Cal,
    not some Mountain West team they're facing, and possibly the best passing game
    in the country. The Trojans made a habit of rolling it up last year. No reason
    to soften up here.
    The pick: Southern Cal.

    California -34 over New Mexico State: Cal might have the best offense in the
    country. New Mexico State might have one of the worst defenses in the country.
    The Aggies lost their opener against a young, inexperienced Arkansas team,
    63-13. Even Arkansas' second team offense beat up on them. What are they going
    to do against Aaron Rodgers, Geoff MacArthur and the rest of the Cal Bears? Hold
    them under triple digits?
    The pick: Cal, and pray for good weather. (best bet).

    Passing thoughts
    I know Arkansas is very, very young this year and Texas looked like an NFL
    playoff team, but it's hard to get last year's shocking loss to the Razorbacks
    out of my mind. That game looked like a coaching mismatch, and this one's in
    Arkansas. Plus, if you still like Texas you've got to give 11. If anything, I'd
    be on the take side here. ... Kansas State struggled to get by Western Kentucky
    in its opener, running Darren Sproles 42 times. Fresno looked great on "D"
    upsetting Washington but didn't muster much of an offense. They'll need one this
    week. ... Western Michigan has a decent passing game but no running game to
    speak of. Which doesn't bode well going into Blacksburg. Virginia Tech has been
    known to pile on late. ... Duke looked offensively challenged against Navy in a
    game in which they got a little banged up. Now they go against Dan Orlovsky's
    passing menagerie at UConn. If the Huskies break on top, we can't see how the
    Dukies could recover. Before loading up, though, you might want to see if Duke
    brought it's best defensive weapon for this one: The rain.
    Last Week: 3-5
    Best Bets: 0-2
    Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last
    season.

  • #2
    Another ESPN Insider prediction............

    By Todd McShay
    Scouts, Inc.

    These two football programs have not been conference foes since the Southwest
    Conference disassembled following the 1995 season, but the rivalry is as bitter
    as ever. During the waning moments of a 27-6 Arkansas victory over Texas in the
    2000 Cotton Bowl, Razorbacks' head coach Houston Nutt was seen flashing a
    downward "hook 'em horns" sign. It infuriated Longhorns' fans but not as much as
    Arkansas' post-game celebration following last season's 38-28 upset at No. 6
    Texas when the Razorbacks planted an Arkansas state flag near the north end zone
    of Royal-Memorial Stadium and took a team picture. Less than one year later, the
    Longhorns are looking to repay the favor at Razorback Stadium in front of ESPN's
    Primetime national audience.
    Game Information

    vs.

    Who: Texas (8) vs. Arkansas
    When: Sat., 8:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
    Where: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark.

    Mack Brown's Longhorns are once again loaded with talent and overwhelmed by
    expectations. While beating Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry is the ultimate,
    the Longhorns know they must snap a three-game losing streak in Arkansas in
    order to remain in the national title hunt.
    RB Cedric Benson returns to carry the load and QB Vince Young is a huge running
    threat. But the Longhorns must replace three starting receivers, including Roy
    Williams. Young must also become a more consistent passer. The defense returns
    seven starters, including massive DT Rodrique Wright and WLB Derrick Johnson,
    who is the most athletic player at his position in the country. Greg Robinson,
    fired as defensive coordinator with the Kansas City Chiefs, was brought in to
    add some toughness to the group as a co-defensive coordinator.
    Arkansas, which opened up the season with a blowout win over New Mexico State,
    has 17 new starters from the 2003 season. Because of the strong job Nutt has
    done in recruiting high school and junior college talent, the Razorbacks aren't
    exactly starting over. But it is safe to say that 2004 projects as a rebuilding
    year for the program.
    QB Matt Jones is the Razorbacks only returning offensive starter from a season
    ago. While he is experienced and athletically gifted, he can't do it on his own.
    RBs DeCori Birmingham, De'Arrius Howard and Kyle Dickerson will all have to grow
    up quickly against Texas' defense. The defensive front seven is the strength of
    the team, which gives them a chance to keep Benson and Young in check. With four
    new starters in the secondary, a big key to the outcome of Saturday night's
    meeting will be the Razorback's ability to prevent the big play in the passing
    game.
    Key individual matchups

    Derrick Johnson could be a disruptive force against the Hogs.
    1. Arkansas RB DeCori Birmingham vs. Texas WLB Derrick Johnson
    Johnson, who forced three first-half North Texas fumbles last week, is the best
    all-around linebacker in college football. He has a big frame, is a powerful
    tackler and has great range. Birmingham is a versatile back who has experience
    as a receiver and return specialist.
    Unfortunately for Arkansas, Johnson's rare athletic ability should negate
    Birmingham's effectiveness. Not only is Johnson fast enough to limit Birmingham
    from sideline-to-sideline in the running game, but he is also more than capable
    of locking on to Birmingham in coverage and minimizing his role as a receiver
    out of the backfield.
    2. Arkansas WR Steven Harris vs. Texas RCB Cedric Griffin
    Harris had only two receptions in last week's win over NMSU, but averaged 29.5
    yards per catch. Harris lacks great size (5-11, 180) but has very good speed and
    acceleration when the ball is in the air. Under Robinson, the Longhorns will
    play more zone coverage than in the past but they still remain a primarily
    man-coverage defense.
    Griffin is a tall cornerback with good overall size and strength. He should do a
    good job of pressing Harris and taking him out of his routes. However, because
    Griffin lacks great hip fluidity and doesn't have Harris' deep speed, this could
    be a matchup the Razorbacks target vertically.
    3. Texas TE David Thomas vs. Arkansas SS Lerinezo Robinson
    After losing all three starting receivers (Roy Williams, B.J. Johnson and Sloan
    Thomas) from a season ago, Thomas is the teams' top returning receiver in terms
    of receptions. The undersized tight end has developed into a consistent target
    over the middle of the field. While Young works to develop a rapport with his
    young wideouts, Thomas will act as a security blanket for the sophomore
    quarterback.
    Robinson was not a starter last season but is the most experienced returning
    player in the secondary. He is often allowed to cheat up as an extra linebacker
    and his ability to support the run could be invaluable. Robinson also flashed
    coverage skills with his two interceptions in last season's Independence Bowl
    win over Missouri. A big key to this matchup will be Robinson's discipline. With
    such an emphasis being placed on supporting the run, it will be easy to get
    caught taking false steps versus the play-action. If Robinson makes a few of
    those mistakes, the Longhorns have the right weapon in Thomas to take advantage.

    Texas' keys to success
    1. Cedric Benson's workload
    Benson doesn't have great speed and isn't a huge homerun threat. His strength is
    his ability to get the tough yards between the tackles. The Razorbacks' starters
    are strong up front, but their lack of depth is a concern. Running behind an
    offensive line that averages 305 pounds, Benson could wear down Arkansas'
    defense by the end of the third quarter.
    2. Vincent Young's deep ball
    Young is one of the most dynamic talents at the quarterback position in college
    football. He has terrific athleticism, vision and speed as a runner. He also has
    excellent arm strength. But Young needs to be more efficient as a passer,
    particularly on his deep throws. Until Young is able to exploit the man-to-man
    coverage afforded to him as a result of Benson, the Longhorn will fail to reach
    their potential offensively.
    3. Keep QB Matt Jones bottled up
    Jones can be an adequate pocket passer but he's a much bigger threat when he
    breaks contain and is able to force opponents to defend the run/pass option. One
    important element limiting Jones' room to run is the discipline of DE's Tim
    Crowder and Brian Robinson.
    In addition, Robinson has worked in the offseason to install more zone coverage,
    which are effective against athletic quarterbacks. In zone coverage, defensive
    backs and linebackers will almost always be facing the quarterback, which allows
    them to break on the quarterback quicker when he pulls the ball down to run.
    Arkansas' keys to success
    1. Running back rotation
    In Arkansas' 63-13 win over New Mexico State last week, Kyle Dickerson, DeCori
    Birmingham and De'Arrius Howard split the majority of the carries. The three
    backs will continue to share the spotlight until one clearly emerges from the
    pack. Birmingham is listed as the starter but the former wide receiver possesses
    great speed and hands at the position.
    The Razorbacks led the SEC in rushing with 241.9 yards per game in 2003. Nutt
    must find the right balance between Dickerson, Birmingham and Howard as this
    team moves forward -- and it won't necessarily be a consistent rotation. Against
    such an athletic front seven as the one Arkansas will face on Saturday night,
    bigger and stronger backs like Howard and Dickerson could prove to be more
    effective.

    Arkansas must be ready for Vince Young's scrambling ability.
    2. "Spy" Vincent Young
    Defensive coordinator Dave Wommack is known for his elaborate schemes and it
    wouldn't be surprising if he implemented one that focused on keeping the
    athletic Young in check. Look for the Razorbacks to play more two-gap techniques
    up front in order to limit Young's running opportunities.
    Much like the situation for Texas' defense against the athletic Matt Jones,
    Arkansas is also likely to play more zone-coverage in order to put their
    defensive backs and linebackers in better position to break on Young when he
    tucks the ball to run. With good athletes at the team's "Husky" linebacker
    position and "Rover" safety position, Wommack could assign one of those two to
    Young in a "Spy" role.
    3. Big play on special teams
    It's no secret the Razorbacks are out-classed in terms of talent and experience
    in this matchup. One of the great equalizers in college football is special
    teams' play. If the Hogs have any chance of pulling off the upset, they need big
    plays from their special teams unit. NT Jeremy Harrell blocked a kick in the
    opener last week. The team wants to limit Birmingham's role in the return game
    because of his increased carries on offense, but this may be a game that coach
    Nutt makes an exception.
    When Texas has the ball
    Once Brown turned the keys to the offense over to the athletic Young midway
    through the 2003 season, the offense changed from what historically had been a
    balanced scheme to practically a one-dimensional running unit. With Young at the
    helm and Benson making the surprise decision to return for his senior season,
    expect the Longhorns to feature the ground attack in 2004.
    Young needs to improve his overall accuracy and ability to read coverages as a
    passer (completed just 58.7-percent and threw 7 INT's compared to just 6 TD's).
    However, he has a strong arm and is one of the most athletically gifted
    quarterbacks in the nation. His scrambling ability leads to many opportunities
    for big plays in the passing game. If he can combine his running production with
    more consistency on his deep throws, the Longhorns will be tough to stop on
    offense.
    The Longhorns should be able to line up in their two-back sets and feed the ball
    to Benson, who averaged 5.3 yards on 258 carries a season ago. Not only is
    Benson reportedly in the best shape of his life, he also will be running behind
    an offensive line that returns four starters from a season ago and his personal
    protector in senior FB Will Matthews.
    The Razorbacks are inexperienced on both sides of the ball but their front seven
    is the most battle-tested group on the team. DT Arrion Dixon could be one of the
    most disruptive interior defensive linemen in the nation as a senior. With
    Dixon, NT Jeremy Harrell, DE Marcus Harrison and DE Huckeba, the Hogs are strong
    enough up front to hold their own against the explosive Texas running game. The
    big question is whether the unit has enough depth to remain stout throughout the
    game. If the front-four begins to wear down, the Razorbacks are in trouble.
    The secondary is extremely inexperienced with all four starters gone from a
    season ago. The only player with any experience is Robinson. His versatility is
    critical to the Razorbacks' scheme because he can be the defensive back that
    cheats up near the line to act as a fourth linebacker. DCs Michael Coe (So.) and
    Darius Vinnett (Jr.) are new starters, as is FS Vickiel Vaughn (Jr.). What once
    used to be an aggressive man-to-man scheme under Wommack will now feature more
    "soft" zone coverage looks in order to prevent the big play.
    Texas special teams
    The Longhorns project to be solid but unspectacular on special teams this
    season. Incumbent PK Dusty Mangum, who battled a quad injury late last season,
    held off David Pino in a preseason battle for the starting job. Mangum missed 20
    field goals the previous three seasons, but is healthy and hit all three of his
    attempts (37, 23, 48) last week.
    PT Richmond McGee is also a returning starter, but he is in jeopardy of losing
    his job to Vanderbilt transfer Greg Johnson. McGee had one attempt for 27 yards
    last week, while Johnson averaged landed both of his attempts inside North
    Texas' 20-yard line. Backup RB Selvin Young inherits the punt return duties.
    Young and backup DC Tarell Brown will split the kickoff return duties.
    When Arkansas has the ball
    Arkansas' offense must simplify things with 10 new starters around Jones. Nutt
    has always run a multiple formation offense that emphasizes establishing the run
    in order to set up the pass. His favorite formation it is the I-formation, which
    will likely be used more this season than it has in the past.

    Matt Jones must avoid turnovers against a very active Longhorns' defense,
    The Hogs have a three-headed monster at the tailback position in Birmingham,
    Dickerson and Howard. Birmingham is the most versatile, explosive and
    experienced of the three. He can be used as a traditional tailback or he can
    provide the Razorbacks with a potential mismatch as a receiver. Dickerson is a
    shorter, squattier runner who shows good burst, vision and toughness. He doesn't
    have Howard's size or overwhelming power. Dickerson did get the most carries of
    the group last week and finished with 34 yards and one touchdown. The other
    running threat is obviously Jones, who rushed for 707 yards and eight touchdowns
    last season.
    Needless to say, the Razorbacks have an array of weapons to choose from and
    various ways of distributing the football on the ground. There are, however, two
    big questions that remain: 1) Can the offensive line that features just one
    player with a previous career start (ROT Zac Tubbs) pave the way for all of the
    aforementioned rushing weapons? 2) Do the Razorbacks have enough of a passing
    offense to keep opponents honest?
    Opening holes for all the running backs and protecting Jones won't be an easy
    task against a Texas. The Longhorns don't have great size up front at several
    positions so the Razorbacks could do an effective job of wearing this group down
    throughout the course of the game. But the biggest difference between the
    Longhorns' defensive front and the Razorbacks' defensive front is depth.
    While the Razorbacks will eventually wear down against a bigger Texas offensive
    line, Texas can make mass substitutions with DEs Kaelen Jakes and Naele Tweedie,
    and DTs Larry Dibbles and Frank Okam in order to keep its starters fresh. The
    difference will show up in the play of the linebackers, as Johnson and Harris
    will be much better protected for four quarters.
    The Longhorns have a big hole to fill thanks to the departure of shutdown DC
    Nate Vasher. They also will be without last year's quarterback of the unit, FS
    Dakarai Pearson. As a result, the team cannot afford to be as aggressive.
    Against a quarterback like Jones, who is such a running threat, playing more
    zone coverage in the back seven will allow the Longhorns to keep everything in
    front of them.
    LDC Griffin is the most experienced and consistent member of the group. If the
    team wants to take some chances with one cornerback locked on man-to-man, he
    will get the call. The left cornerback position is still basically up for grabs
    between two sophomores, Aaron Ross and Tarell Brown. Phillip Geiggar and Michael
    Huff both have starting experience and are strong versus the run.
    Arkansas special teams
    The Razorbacks have very few advantages in this game but they might have a
    slight one on special teams. The unit is experienced in the kicking game with PK
    Chris Balseiro and PT Jacob Skinner returning as starters. Balseiro missed his
    only attempt last week but it was from 47 yards. After averaging 39.9 yards per
    punt as a freshman last season, Skinner got off to a decent start with an
    average of 35.7 yards on three punts last week.
    The team also gets a boost with the return of kicker David Carlton, who has a
    strong leg on kickoffs and also can provide insurance should Balseiro stumble.
    Birmingham has the speed and explosiveness to make a major impact in the return
    game, but the Razorbacks will use him cautiously. If last week was any
    indication, Michael Grant and Peyton Hillis will split some of the kickoff
    return duties, while Carlos Ousley and Kevin Woods will pick up the slack in the
    punt return game.
    Bottom line
    This game has all the makings of a blowout. The Longhorns have one of the
    nation's most potent 1-2 backfield combinations. With four returning starters
    along their offensive line, the Longhorns should bulldoze through the
    Razorbacks. The defense could eventually become even better than the 2003
    version. Furthermore, the Longhorns are out for blood after witnessing the
    free-for-all that was Arkansas' post-game celebration inside Memorial Stadium a
    year ago.
    However, don't mistake the Razorbacks' inexperience for a lack of talent. The
    cupboard is by no means bare in terms of potential playmakers on both sides of
    the football. While the Longhorns are motivated by revenge, the Hogs will have
    nearly 70,000 Hog fans backing them on Saturday night.
    The Longhorns edge in talent might not be as large as most people think. With
    versatile weapons on offense, Arkansas should produce big plays. While the
    Razorbacks will eventually wear down on defense, don't expect them to get rolled
    over in the first two or three quarters. If the secondary can keep everything in
    front of them, the Longhorns' offense will have tougher sledding than it
    expects.

    Prediction: Texas 33, Arkansas 24

    Comment


    • #3
      By Steve Muench
      Scouts, Inc.

      It's the 31st meeting between two pillars of college football. Michigan and
      Notre Dame are ranked one-two in NCCA in all-time victories and winning
      percentage. The Wolverines took over the lead with a win against Miami of Ohio,
      combined with the Fighting Irish's loss to BYU last week. Notre Dame played its
      first varsity football game against Michigan in 1887. The game took place in
      South Bend with the Wolverines winning 8-0.
      Game Information

      vs.
      Who: Michigan (7) vs. Notre Dame
      When: Sat., 3:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
      Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

      Michigan comes into this game ranked No. 8 in the Associated Press. This will be
      the 15th consecutive meeting between these two programs with at least one team
      ranked in the top 10 in the AP poll. At least one of the two schools has been
      ranked in every Notre Dame-Michigan matchup since the start of the poll in 1936.

      Michigan heavily recruited QB Brady Quinn when he was a senior at Coffman High
      School in Dublin, Ohio, but he chose to attend Notre Dame.
      When Michigan has the ball
      UM run offense vs. ND run defense
      David Underwood rushed for two touchdowns last week and appears to be Michigan's
      primary back. However, he averaged just 2.8 yards a carry and head coach Lloyd
      Carr acknowledged the Wolverines didn't run the ball as well as he had hoped
      last week. While Underwood certainly isn't the only one to blame, expect to see
      backup Jerome Jackson get more carries in relief. Jackson is faster than
      Underwood and gives Michigan more of a big-play threat.
      The Wolverines should have success running between the tackles. ROG David Baas
      is an excellent run blocker that has the power to drive DT Greg Pauly and
      undersized NG Greg Landri off the ball. In addition, FB Kevin Dudley is a
      physical lead blocker who rarely gets pushed back at the point of attack. He
      should get the best of his matchup with ILB Mike Goolsby, who missed all of last
      year with a broken collarbone.
      Advantage: Michigan
      UM offense vs. ND pass defense
      True freshman QB Chad Henne helped lead Michigan to a 43-10 victory last week.
      However, he faces a much stiffer test this week. Notre Dame fans will be out in
      full force and Henne will have to adjust to the elevated noise level. The
      Wolverines can help Henne by getting out of the huddle quickly. Getting to the
      line early in the play clock gives Henne time to change the play if he doesn't
      like the defensive front.
      The Fighting Irish gave up some long pass plays last week including a 42-yard
      touchdown. Michigan has one of the most talented receiving corps in the nation
      and Braylon Edwards is a difference-maker. Notre Dame's secondary will have to
      play with great discipline or they could get scorched deep again. It's easier
      said than done because Michigan does an excellent job of running play action.
      Advantage: Michigan
      When Notre Dame has the ball
      ND run offense vs. UM run defense
      One of the best ways to prevent Henne from getting into a rhythm is to keep him
      on the sidelines for long periods of time. An excellent way to accomplish this
      is to establish an effective running game that allows the Fighting Irish to
      control the clock. Notre Dame, which finished with just 21 rushing attempts last
      week, should show a greater commitment to the ground attack this week.

      Notre Dame will need to contain Michigan's receivers.
      Notre Dame's offensive line appeared hesitant at times last week and it will
      have to be far more aggressive against a talented front seven. Michigan has the
      size at defensive tackle to clog up the middle and keep blockers off the
      linebackers. The Wolverines also have two ends capable of making plays in the
      backfield and running plays down from behind. If Notre Dame is unable run the
      ball effectively and the offense becomes one-dimensional, there will be even
      more pressure on Quinn to perform well.
      Advantage: Michigan
      ND pass offense vs. UM pass defense
      Michigan defensive coordinator Jim Herrmann uses a variety of coverages and
      alignments. He will look to keep Notre Dame's off-balance throughout this game
      and force Quinn to rush some of his decisions. It doesn't hurt that CBs Marlin
      Jackson and Markus Curry have the cover skills to hold up on an island. Notre
      Dame's backs do a good job of picking up the blitz to give Quinn enough room to
      step into his throws.
      Quinn cannot get caught trying to force passes into coverage in an effort to
      spark his teammates. The Wolverines clearly have the playmakers to turn any of
      his mistakes into turnovers, as they intercepted five passes last week.
      Quinn can keep Michigan's aggressive front seven on its heels by using some hard
      counts. Effective hard counts prevent the defensive line from anticipating the
      snap count and could result in some offsides penalties.
      Advantage: Michigan
      Special teams
      Miami of Ohio return man Ryne Robinson returned a punt 70 yards and had a punt
      return for a touchdown called back against Michigan last week. Notre Dame PR
      Rhema McKnight had a difficult game last week, but he is dangerous. The
      Wolverines don't want to help the Fighting Irish by giving then quality field
      position. The consistency on point after attempts is also a concern, as PK
      Garrett Rivas missed two last week.
      Notre Dame PK/P D.J. Fitzpatrick connected on his only field goal attempt last
      week. While he doesn't have great leg strength, he is accurate on field goal
      attempts and does a good job as a punter.
      Advantage: Notre Dame
      Bottom line
      Michigan is the far more dominant team on paper but these games aren't played on
      paper. Notre Dame should give the Wolverines a good scare. Expect the Fighting
      Irish to do a much better job of protecting the ball than Miami of Ohio did a
      week ago and to limit Michigan's big plays. Although Henne will struggle at
      times, a running game that features two quality backs and a strong offensive
      line will bail him out in the end.

      Prediction: Michigan 24, Notre Dame 20

      Comment


      • #4
        By Tony Granieri
        Scouts, Inc.

        The Sylvester Croom era began well last weekend, as Mississippi State dismantled
        Tulane 28-7. Things will get a much tougher for MSU, who will play host to
        heavily-favored Auburn in a battle for the early lead in the SEC Western
        Division.
        Game Information

        vs.
        Who: Auburn (19) vs. Mississippi State
        When: Sat., 12:30 p.m. ET (Gameplan)
        Where: Scott Field, Starkville, MS

        When these two teams met last year, Tigers RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams etched
        his name in Auburn's record books by running for a school-record six touchdowns.
        Can the Bulldogs keep Williams from running wild this time around or will the
        Cadillac run his way into the Heisman race?
        When Auburn has the ball
        Auburn run offense vs. Mississippi State run defense
        New offensive coordinator Al Borges would like to get RB Ronnie Brown more
        involved in the offense this week, especially with all of the attention the
        defense will be giving Williams. The running styles of the two backs should
        blend nicely, as Brown has good speed and Williams runs with power.
        Last week, against a far-less talented Louisiana-Monroe team, the front five
        struggled. Although this group has two new starters, they'll have to gel quickly
        and play at a higher level. DT Ronald Fields is massive and could force the
        Tiger backs to bounce their runs outside throughout this game.
        Advantage: Auburn
        Auburn offense vs. Mississippi State pass defense
        Jason Campbell looked good in his first game in the West Coast offense,
        completing 61% of his passes and throwing for two scores. He hit his check down
        receivers, didn't force the ball into tight spots and avoided turning the ball
        over.
        This week, he'll face Mississippi State's blitz-happy defense. Campbell must get
        rid of the ball quickly. WR Courtney Taylor could have a big day working against
        a steady diet of man-to-man coverage. Getting Taylor off to a strong start will
        force the Bulldogs to play more conservatively.
        Advantage: Auburn
        When Mississippi State has the ball
        Mississippi State run offense vs. Auburn run defense

        If the Tigers can establish a running game, Jason Campbell will have time
        to throw.
        The Bulldogs' West Coast offense is predicated on controlled passing and a
        strong running game. RB Jerious Norwood doesn't have blazing speed but rarely
        gets tackled for a loss. He is coming off his fourth career 100-yard rushing
        performance. He will have a hard time repeating that feat against the Tigers.
        Despite losing a number of quality players to the NFL, Auburn didn't seem to
        miss a beat defensively last week. The base defense is a 4-3 and defensive
        coordinator Gene Chiznik likes to blitz. Keep an eye on OLB Travis Williams, who
        has some explosive pas rushing qualities and the speed to make plays from
        sideline-to-sideline.
        Advantage: Auburn
        Mississippi State pass offense vs. Auburn pass defense
        QB Omar Conner has a strong arm but isn't very accurate. He could struggle
        against the blitz-happy Tigers. The Bulldogs have a decent receiving corps,
        headlined by McKinley Scott and Joey Sanders. However, the team lacks size on
        the perimeter.
        The loss of Justin Jenkins to the NFL limits this group's big-play ability. Look
        for CBs Carlos Rogers and Montavis Pitts to play lots of "press" technique
        behind the Tigers' blitzing front seven.
        Advantage: Auburn
        Special teams
        Auburn PKs Phillip Yost and John Vaughn have strong legs but both have been
        inconsistent. Vaughn has apparently won the job though, but that could change.
        PT Kody Bliss gets good hangtime on his kicks and did a great job of pinning the
        Tigers' opponents inside the 20-yard line last year. He should only get better
        with more experience. Although Williams will see time fielding punts, Pitts is
        the safer option for the Tigers.
        PT Jared Cook is the strength of the Bulldogs' special teams unit. Cook has a
        career average of 42.1 yards per attempt. PK Keith Andrews has a strong leg but
        has never attempted a field goal. Backup RB Fred Reid handles the kick return
        duties and has some big-play potential.
        Advantage: Auburn
        Bottom line
        Although the Bulldogs look much-improved under Croom, it will take some time
        before their ready to compete with quality SEC teams. MSU simply lacks the
        personnel on the defensive side of the ball to slow down Williams and the
        Tigers' running game. Things could get ugly if Campbell continues his solid-play
        from last week. Auburn's aggressive defense will likely pressure the
        inexperienced Conner into making some critical mistakes.

        Prediction: Auburn 34, Mississippi State 13

        Comment


        • #5
          By Tony Granieri
          Scouts, Inc.

          With most of their marquee players from last season back, Georgia is a
          fashionable pick to compete for the national championship. However, the Bulldogs
          will have to endure a tough SEC schedule which kicks off this weekend in
          Columbia, South Carolina.
          Game Information

          vs.
          Who: Georgia (3) vs. South Carolina
          When: Sat., 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
          Where: Williams-Brice, Columbia, S.C.

          The Gamecocks are coming off a big win. For the first time in two years, the
          pieces are in place for Lou Holtz to return to a bowl. Will the Bulldogs live up
          to the hype or will Holtz have his team ready to pull off the upset?
          When Georgia has the ball
          Georgia run offense vs. South Carolina run defense
          South Carolina must control the Georgia running game and look to force the
          Bulldogs into a one-dimensional offense. However, that task is much easier said
          than done. All five starters along Georgia's offensive line are back. The unit
          paved the way for RB Danny Ware's 135 yards and three scores last week.
          Defensively, South Carolina operates out of a 4-3. While they have speed in the
          linebacking corps, with senior Marcus Lawrence and junior Lance Laury, they lack
          size up the middle. The Gamecocks will try to crowd the line of scrimmage by
          moving their safeties into the box, but they'll open up some big-play
          opportunities in the passing game.
          Advantage: Georgia
          Georgia offense vs. South Carolina pass defense
          While David Greene has little mobility, he is very accurate and makes great
          decisions. Georgia allowed 47 sacks last season, which hurt Greene's overall
          production. OTs Max Jean-Gilles and Daniel Inman could develop into the best
          starting tackle tandem in the SEC if they improve their technique.
          WRs Fred Gibson and Reggie Brown are flashy but have become increasingly less
          productive. The biggest problem has been dropped passes. Gibson has the best
          separating burst in the SEC and should be able to get downfield against the
          Gamecocks. However, both receivers will need to show better concentration.
          Advantage: Georgia
          When South Carolina has the ball

          David Greene could increase his Heisman hype on Saturday.
          South Carolina run offense vs. Georgia run defense
          The Gamecocks have three explosive running backs and one of the conference's
          best offensive lines. Holtz has dumped the spread offense and will look to run
          the football. However, the Gamecocks may have a hard time doing so against an
          extremely talented Georgia front seven.
          DE David Pollack is a two time All-American and will be helped by a strong
          supporting, including 325-pound DT Gerald Anderson and speedy SLB Arnold
          Harrison. This is a strength vs. strength matchup but if the Bulldogs are to
          contend for a national title, it's the kind of matchup they'll need to win this
          year.
          Advantage: Georgia
          South Carolina pass offense vs. Georgia pass defense
          Pinkins is a good athlete and can create second chances with his feet. But his
          accuracy and leadership have been questioned in the past. He'll need to bring
          his game to a new level. WRs Matthew Thomas and Troy Williamson have good speed
          but, much like the Bulldogs' receivers, they need to catch the ball with more
          consistency.
          Although the Gamecocks should only throw the ball about 20 times, they'll need
          to be efficient in the passing game. Georgia boasts one of the best secondaries
          in the country. FS Thomas Davis is an NFL prospect and CB Tim Jennings has
          tremendous speed. The secondary is also helped by one of the strongest pass
          rushes in college football, which is led by the relentless Pollack.
          Advantage: Georgia
          Special teams
          Georgia PK Andy Bailey looked strong last week, connecting on both field goal
          attempts. Bailey isn't as talented as his predecessor, Billy Bennett, but he
          should only get better with more experience. KOS Brandon Coutu has a strong leg
          and had three touchbacks last week. But he also kicked two balls out of bounds
          so he too needs to be more consistent.
          The return duties are handled by the explosive Tyson Browning and backup RB
          Thomas Brown. Last week, Browning averaged 44.5 yards per punt return, including
          a long of 72 yards that went for a score. As a team, the Bulldogs have excelled
          in special teams under Mark Richt, blocking eight punts, eight field goals, two
          extra points and scoring seven special teams touchdowns in his three-plus years.

          Josh Brown handles both the punting and placekicking duties for the Gamecocks.
          He has a strong leg and gets good hang time as a punter. He did miss two field
          goals last week. Williamson and backup WR Noah Whiteside handle the return
          duties for South Carolina. Both have good speed and can be dangerous in the
          open-field.
          Advantage: Georgia
          Bottom line
          Georgia has enough playmakers on its roster to win the SEC championship and
          could find themselves playing for the BCS title. However, the offense still
          needs more consistency from its line and receivers. The defense will be forced
          to carry the team. The Bulldogs finished third in the country in scoring defense
          (14.5) and fourth in total defense (276.9) in 2003. This year's group could be
          better.
          The Gamecocks will try to run the ball and keep Georgia on its heels. We don't
          see them having much success against the Bulldogs' talented front seven.
          Although the Georgia offense won't be hitting on all cylinders this early in the
          season, they'll have enough firepower to get past South Carolina.

          Prediction: Georgia 30, South Carolina 17

          Comment


          • #6
            By Tony Granieri
            Scouts, Inc.

            The Wildcats have won the last two meetings between these two teams. However,
            what appeared to be a blown call in the waning seconds of the 2002 contest cost
            Utah the tying touchdown. The Utes will look to settle the score.
            Game Information

            vs.
            Who: Utah (16) vs. Arizona
            When: Sat., 10:00 p.m. ET
            Where: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

            QB Alex Smith passed for three touchdowns and ran for two scores against Texas
            A&M last Thursday night. The junior completed 21 of 29 passes for a career-high
            359 yards and also rushed 13 times for 76 yards. Utah will need a similar
            performance out of their star quarterback this week. Can Wildcats head coach
            Mike Stoops devise a game plan to slow Smith down, or will Utah escape the
            desert heat with a win?
            When Utah has the ball
            Utah run offense vs. Arizona run defense
            The Utes ran for 212 yards against A&M last week and they seem poised to have
            another solid outing. RBs Marty Johnson and Quinton Ganther provide Utah with a
            versatile ground game that will feature some option out of the Utes' shotgun
            formation.
            Arizona will run a multiple 4-3 scheme under Stoops, but Utah's offensive line
            is experienced and should handle any wrinkles the Wildcats throw at them.
            Without much speed at the linebacker position, Arizona could give up some big
            plays on the ground.
            Advantage: Utah
            Utah offense vs. Arizona pass defense
            Smith looked poised last week and showed great command over Urban Meyer's
            offense. He spread the ball around to five different receivers and he did a
            great job of creating with his feet. The Wildcats will run more zone schemes
            than the Aggies did last week which may limit Smith's ability to take run.
            However, Smith can still be effective because he is an accurate passer and
            shouldn't have much trouble finding holes in the coverage.
            Arizona is playing with two inexperienced corners in its secondary, which bodes
            well for Utah's speedy WR Paris Warren. Look for Meyer to spread the field with
            three and four receiver sets. Smith should have a big game working against the
            Wildcats' corners.
            Advantage: Utah
            When Arizona has the ball
            Arizona run offense vs. Utah run defense

            Can Mike Stoops devise a plan to slow down Alex Smith?
            Junior RB Mike Bell carried a career-high 31 times for 118 yards and two
            touchdowns last week. With Utah's offensive firepower, Bell probably won't get
            the opportunity to carry the ball 30+ times this week. He won't be all that
            productive when he gets the chance. Once Utah opens up a lead, Arizona will have
            to throw in order to catch up.
            Defensively, Utah will also run a 4-3 and are is by LBs Spencer Toone and Corey
            Dodds. Both have great range and always seem to be near the ball. Bell is a
            tough runner, but the Utes' linebackers won't allow him to run the corner so he
            shouldn't be all that productive.
            Advantage: Utah
            Arizona pass offense vs. Utah pass defense
            QB Kris Heavner looked great in the opener, completing 18-of-23 passes for 171
            yards. He showed tremendous accuracy and did a great job spreading the ball
            around to eight different receivers. Arizona will need more big plays from its
            passing game this week if the Wildcats are to keep pace with the explosive Utes.
            While WR Syndric Steptoe has great speed, he may have a hard time finding room
            against one of the best secondaries in the Mountain West Conference. The
            Wildcats will be without their best receiver as Biren Early is still nursing a
            foot injury.
            If Utah opens things up and scores some points early, Heavner may start to force
            some things down the field. He must be careful because he cannot afford to give
            Utah quality field position by turning the ball over.
            Advantage: Utah
            Special teams
            The Wildcats' special teams finished dead last in the Pac-10 in punt returns
            last season and next to last in kick returns. They're hoping that Steptoe and
            Ryan Edison can improve these areas in '04. PT Danny Baugher averaged 42.6 yards
            per attempt last year, but PK Nick Folk is inexperienced.
            Bryan Borreson handles the place kicking duties for the Utes and finished 11 of
            14 last year. P Matt Kovacevich has one of the strongest legs in the Mountain
            West. Warren, Morgan Scalley, and Bo Nagahi give Utah one of the strongest
            kickoff and punt return units in the country.
            Advantage: Utah
            Bottom line
            The Wildcats made the right move by bringing in Mike Stoops but the dividends
            from that investment won't be realized until next year, at the earliest. There
            are issues along the defensive line, the linebackers lack speed and the special
            teams unit needs to be revamped.
            Look for the difference in talent between these two teams to become apparent
            early. Utah may jump out to a big first-quarter lead. Once the Wildcats are
            forced to become one-dimensional, Utah's defense should force Heavner into
            making some mistakes. Stoops will have his team well prepared but Arizona just
            doesn't have the firepower to stay with the Utes.

            Prediction: Utah 34, Arizona 17

            Comment

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