By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
Every season we must relearn expensive lessons. College Football is a highly
emotional game, and the home team is usually charged. This week it's back to
basics. The early season non-conference schedule has produced a string of
mismatches again this week. Iowa, Oklahoma State and Cal look the best of them.
Otherwise, we're staying "home" this week.
Thursday
Troy + 10½ over Missouri: This is Larry Blakeney's 14th year at coaching the
Troy Trojans, and he's no stranger to playing top teams. Last year Troy started
the season with expected losses at Kansas State and Minnesota before shocking
UAB at UAB and upsetting Marshall in one of its few home games. You'd think
Marshall would have been out for revenge in its home opener last week against
Troy, but Troy pulled another upset, 17-15, keeping Marshall scoreless for most
of the second half. When you think of Missouri you think of Brad Smith, one of the best running and
throwing quarterbacks in the country. But Missouri isn't as strong as last year,
although Smith can explode at any time. Both traits were in evidence last week,
as the Tigers pounded Arkansas State for 35 first-half points while yielding a
shocking 438 total yards (240 by air). Troy has nine starters back on defense
and eight on offense and a tremendous home field advantage. This could be a
shocking upset.
The pick: Troy State.
Friday
Boise State -7½ over Oregon State: Talk about your tough losses. The Beavers
controlled LSU nearly the entire game last Saturday night in Baton Rouge, then
lost on three missed extra points -- one caused by a five-yard penalty for
taking the TD ball back to the sideline. Then after overcoming two questionable
defensive holding calls in OT and scoring what appeared to be the tying
touchdown on 4th-and-10, the kid misses the point while coach Mike Riley
desperately tries to call a time out. Would he have gone for two knowing what
was about to happen? Then you've got to get on that plane and fly all the way
back to Oregon. Then show up for practice on Labor Day to get ready for another
road game Friday at a killer like Boisie State, which is just dying to avenge
last year's controversial 26-24 loss at Oregon State. Sounds like a recipe for
disaster for the Beavers. If all that's not enough, this game might mean more to the Broncos than winning
the WAC. It's the only way they can get some national respect. Sure QB Ryan
Dinwiddie is gone, but that wasn't you or me who hung 65 up against Idaho last
weekend. Coach Dan Hawkins, entering his fourth year, is 33-6 at Boise and
should have been considered for the Nebraska job. He knows how to win, and he
knows how to rub it in. If he can, he'll do that to Oregon State, but that was
no mediocre defense that slowed LSU most of the game.
The pick: Boise State at -7 or less.
Saturday
Penn State -2 at Boston College: Joe Paterno made a smart move by hiring former
Florida head coach Galen Hall and turning over the offense to him. With Boston
College's top running back out for a month, scoring points and holding off Penn
State's new multi-dimensional attack doesn't look easy. The Lions will have to
find a way to stop BC's great defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka or at least slow
his rush. Expect Hall to alternate QBs Zack Mills and Michael Robinson and to
run pitch plays on Kiwanuka's side. The Lions will also want to avenge last
year's shocking loss to the Eagles in Happy Valley.
The pick: Penn State.
Nebraska -14½ over Southern Miss: Southern Miss only returns four starters from
a good defensive team, which should be enough of an opening for Bill Callahan's
new 'Husker attack to score. There's nothing wrong with Nebraska's defense,
though, which is one of the best in the country. If Nebraska could win this game
on the Golden Eagles' field 38-14 last year, it should be just as easy this
time. Besides, even though the Eagles' offense returns nine starters, it only
managed a total of 19 points in four games against quality teams: Nebraska,
Alabama, Cal and Utah last year. Don't expect much better here.
The pick: Nebraska.
Cincinnati +3½ over Miami of Ohio: Not sure Josh Betts is the second coming of
Ben Rothlisberger. Throwing four interceptions at Michigan is no sin, but the
Red Hawks never seemed to get their poise. The Bearcats, on the other hand
looked very much in the game at Ohio State until late. Last year, Cincinnati
staged a wild comeback to nearly knock off a powerful Red Hawk team in Miami. If
anything this looks like a defensive battle, and there's no place like home in a
game like that.
The pick: Cincinnati.
Iowa -24½ over Iowa State: Iowa State lost its final 10 games last year by an
average of 34 points each. The only game they were in was an eight-point loss at
Northern Ill. The first of those 10 losses was 40-21 thrashing they took at home
by Iowa in a game that wasn't that close. Last week, Iowa State handled Northern
Iowa, as you might expect, while Iowa beat up Kent. This could be Cyclones'
coach Dan McCarney's last chance. He has better athletes this year, but they
certainly aren't ready for the Hawkeyes yet. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is now one
of the nation's best. His new freshman QB Drew Tate looked fantastic in his
debut, which is more bad news for the Cyclones. This is for the recruiting wars,
too.
The pick: Iowa (best bet)
Notre Dame + 13½ over Michigan: Notre Dame's No. 1 fan, Regis Philbin, was on TV
the other day bemoaning that, "This isn't the Notre Dame that I know and
remember." It sure isn't, Rege. The only other time the Irish were two-touchdown
underdogs at home in recent memory was last year, when USC came through like a
tank. Other than that, taking the Irish as a home dog has been a pretty good
proposition. Losing to BYU appears to be embarrassing, but the effort wasn't all bad. The ND
defense looked very good, especially in the second half. BYU was able to load up
at the line with senior workhorse RB Ryan Grant out with a hamstring. He should
be ready this week, which will be a big help, and you know coach Tyrone
Willingham feels the heat. Sure Michigan is loaded, as usual, but the Wolverines are only 1-6-1 (straight
up) in their last eight visits to South Bend. I just get the feeling this one's
going down to the wire.
The pick: Notre Dame.
South Carolina +8 over Georgia: This is South Carolina' most important game the
first half of the season and the game coach Lou Holtz has been getting ready
for. Last year Holtz's Gamecocks blew out Virginia in this same spot, 30-0.
Having read their press clippings, the next week they traveled to Georgia and
had their lunch handed to them. The Bulldogs are thought to be good enough to vie for the national championship
this year. They have a very quick defense and an improving offense, especially
with Danny Ware running the ball. But the Bulldogs looked a bit unsettled
against Georgia Southern last Saturday, yielding more than 300 yards to an
option attack. Holtz has Demetris Summers back to pound the ball and Dondrial
Pinkins to throw it. They both looked sharp in a surprisingly easy win at Vandy.
And South Carolina plays oh so tough at home. The caveat: Georgia's one of the
best road teams in the country.
The pick: South Carolina.
Oklahoma State -20½ over Tulsa: Oklahoma State is one of the best home teams in
the business. Last year they went 6-1 at home, knocking off Kansas State and hot
passing Texas Tech, losing only to Texas. The year before they upset both
Nebraska and Oklahoma at home. Tulsa doesn't look or sound like any of those
teams we've mentioned. While the Cowboys looked very good winning at UCLA, Tulsa
looked very dull losing at much less talented Kansas. And they also have to
contend with Oklahoma State running sensation Vernand Morency who ran for 261
yards against the Bruins last week. It marked his third straight 200-yard game.
The pick: Oklahoma State. (best bet)
Southern Cal -24 over Colorado State: Unless you're worried about the Trojans
being stale after a week off, you can proceed with enthusiasm here. Colorado
State showed some guts and gumption fighting back against in-state rival
Colorado last Saturday, but then they went for it all on the game's final play
-- instead of an easy field goal and overtime -- and lost. Very tough way to get
ready for the number one team in the country. The Rams are well coached and
haven't lost by more than three TDs in a dog's age, but this is Southern Cal,
not some Mountain West team they're facing, and possibly the best passing game
in the country. The Trojans made a habit of rolling it up last year. No reason
to soften up here.
The pick: Southern Cal.
California -34 over New Mexico State: Cal might have the best offense in the
country. New Mexico State might have one of the worst defenses in the country.
The Aggies lost their opener against a young, inexperienced Arkansas team,
63-13. Even Arkansas' second team offense beat up on them. What are they going
to do against Aaron Rodgers, Geoff MacArthur and the rest of the Cal Bears? Hold
them under triple digits?
The pick: Cal, and pray for good weather. (best bet).
Passing thoughts
I know Arkansas is very, very young this year and Texas looked like an NFL
playoff team, but it's hard to get last year's shocking loss to the Razorbacks
out of my mind. That game looked like a coaching mismatch, and this one's in
Arkansas. Plus, if you still like Texas you've got to give 11. If anything, I'd
be on the take side here. ... Kansas State struggled to get by Western Kentucky
in its opener, running Darren Sproles 42 times. Fresno looked great on "D"
upsetting Washington but didn't muster much of an offense. They'll need one this
week. ... Western Michigan has a decent passing game but no running game to
speak of. Which doesn't bode well going into Blacksburg. Virginia Tech has been
known to pile on late. ... Duke looked offensively challenged against Navy in a
game in which they got a little banged up. Now they go against Dan Orlovsky's
passing menagerie at UConn. If the Huskies break on top, we can't see how the
Dukies could recover. Before loading up, though, you might want to see if Duke
brought it's best defensive weapon for this one: The rain.
Last Week: 3-5
Best Bets: 0-2
Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last
season.
Special to ESPN Insider
Every season we must relearn expensive lessons. College Football is a highly
emotional game, and the home team is usually charged. This week it's back to
basics. The early season non-conference schedule has produced a string of
mismatches again this week. Iowa, Oklahoma State and Cal look the best of them.
Otherwise, we're staying "home" this week.
Thursday
Troy + 10½ over Missouri: This is Larry Blakeney's 14th year at coaching the
Troy Trojans, and he's no stranger to playing top teams. Last year Troy started
the season with expected losses at Kansas State and Minnesota before shocking
UAB at UAB and upsetting Marshall in one of its few home games. You'd think
Marshall would have been out for revenge in its home opener last week against
Troy, but Troy pulled another upset, 17-15, keeping Marshall scoreless for most
of the second half. When you think of Missouri you think of Brad Smith, one of the best running and
throwing quarterbacks in the country. But Missouri isn't as strong as last year,
although Smith can explode at any time. Both traits were in evidence last week,
as the Tigers pounded Arkansas State for 35 first-half points while yielding a
shocking 438 total yards (240 by air). Troy has nine starters back on defense
and eight on offense and a tremendous home field advantage. This could be a
shocking upset.
The pick: Troy State.
Friday
Boise State -7½ over Oregon State: Talk about your tough losses. The Beavers
controlled LSU nearly the entire game last Saturday night in Baton Rouge, then
lost on three missed extra points -- one caused by a five-yard penalty for
taking the TD ball back to the sideline. Then after overcoming two questionable
defensive holding calls in OT and scoring what appeared to be the tying
touchdown on 4th-and-10, the kid misses the point while coach Mike Riley
desperately tries to call a time out. Would he have gone for two knowing what
was about to happen? Then you've got to get on that plane and fly all the way
back to Oregon. Then show up for practice on Labor Day to get ready for another
road game Friday at a killer like Boisie State, which is just dying to avenge
last year's controversial 26-24 loss at Oregon State. Sounds like a recipe for
disaster for the Beavers. If all that's not enough, this game might mean more to the Broncos than winning
the WAC. It's the only way they can get some national respect. Sure QB Ryan
Dinwiddie is gone, but that wasn't you or me who hung 65 up against Idaho last
weekend. Coach Dan Hawkins, entering his fourth year, is 33-6 at Boise and
should have been considered for the Nebraska job. He knows how to win, and he
knows how to rub it in. If he can, he'll do that to Oregon State, but that was
no mediocre defense that slowed LSU most of the game.
The pick: Boise State at -7 or less.
Saturday
Penn State -2 at Boston College: Joe Paterno made a smart move by hiring former
Florida head coach Galen Hall and turning over the offense to him. With Boston
College's top running back out for a month, scoring points and holding off Penn
State's new multi-dimensional attack doesn't look easy. The Lions will have to
find a way to stop BC's great defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka or at least slow
his rush. Expect Hall to alternate QBs Zack Mills and Michael Robinson and to
run pitch plays on Kiwanuka's side. The Lions will also want to avenge last
year's shocking loss to the Eagles in Happy Valley.
The pick: Penn State.
Nebraska -14½ over Southern Miss: Southern Miss only returns four starters from
a good defensive team, which should be enough of an opening for Bill Callahan's
new 'Husker attack to score. There's nothing wrong with Nebraska's defense,
though, which is one of the best in the country. If Nebraska could win this game
on the Golden Eagles' field 38-14 last year, it should be just as easy this
time. Besides, even though the Eagles' offense returns nine starters, it only
managed a total of 19 points in four games against quality teams: Nebraska,
Alabama, Cal and Utah last year. Don't expect much better here.
The pick: Nebraska.
Cincinnati +3½ over Miami of Ohio: Not sure Josh Betts is the second coming of
Ben Rothlisberger. Throwing four interceptions at Michigan is no sin, but the
Red Hawks never seemed to get their poise. The Bearcats, on the other hand
looked very much in the game at Ohio State until late. Last year, Cincinnati
staged a wild comeback to nearly knock off a powerful Red Hawk team in Miami. If
anything this looks like a defensive battle, and there's no place like home in a
game like that.
The pick: Cincinnati.
Iowa -24½ over Iowa State: Iowa State lost its final 10 games last year by an
average of 34 points each. The only game they were in was an eight-point loss at
Northern Ill. The first of those 10 losses was 40-21 thrashing they took at home
by Iowa in a game that wasn't that close. Last week, Iowa State handled Northern
Iowa, as you might expect, while Iowa beat up Kent. This could be Cyclones'
coach Dan McCarney's last chance. He has better athletes this year, but they
certainly aren't ready for the Hawkeyes yet. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is now one
of the nation's best. His new freshman QB Drew Tate looked fantastic in his
debut, which is more bad news for the Cyclones. This is for the recruiting wars,
too.
The pick: Iowa (best bet)
Notre Dame + 13½ over Michigan: Notre Dame's No. 1 fan, Regis Philbin, was on TV
the other day bemoaning that, "This isn't the Notre Dame that I know and
remember." It sure isn't, Rege. The only other time the Irish were two-touchdown
underdogs at home in recent memory was last year, when USC came through like a
tank. Other than that, taking the Irish as a home dog has been a pretty good
proposition. Losing to BYU appears to be embarrassing, but the effort wasn't all bad. The ND
defense looked very good, especially in the second half. BYU was able to load up
at the line with senior workhorse RB Ryan Grant out with a hamstring. He should
be ready this week, which will be a big help, and you know coach Tyrone
Willingham feels the heat. Sure Michigan is loaded, as usual, but the Wolverines are only 1-6-1 (straight
up) in their last eight visits to South Bend. I just get the feeling this one's
going down to the wire.
The pick: Notre Dame.
South Carolina +8 over Georgia: This is South Carolina' most important game the
first half of the season and the game coach Lou Holtz has been getting ready
for. Last year Holtz's Gamecocks blew out Virginia in this same spot, 30-0.
Having read their press clippings, the next week they traveled to Georgia and
had their lunch handed to them. The Bulldogs are thought to be good enough to vie for the national championship
this year. They have a very quick defense and an improving offense, especially
with Danny Ware running the ball. But the Bulldogs looked a bit unsettled
against Georgia Southern last Saturday, yielding more than 300 yards to an
option attack. Holtz has Demetris Summers back to pound the ball and Dondrial
Pinkins to throw it. They both looked sharp in a surprisingly easy win at Vandy.
And South Carolina plays oh so tough at home. The caveat: Georgia's one of the
best road teams in the country.
The pick: South Carolina.
Oklahoma State -20½ over Tulsa: Oklahoma State is one of the best home teams in
the business. Last year they went 6-1 at home, knocking off Kansas State and hot
passing Texas Tech, losing only to Texas. The year before they upset both
Nebraska and Oklahoma at home. Tulsa doesn't look or sound like any of those
teams we've mentioned. While the Cowboys looked very good winning at UCLA, Tulsa
looked very dull losing at much less talented Kansas. And they also have to
contend with Oklahoma State running sensation Vernand Morency who ran for 261
yards against the Bruins last week. It marked his third straight 200-yard game.
The pick: Oklahoma State. (best bet)
Southern Cal -24 over Colorado State: Unless you're worried about the Trojans
being stale after a week off, you can proceed with enthusiasm here. Colorado
State showed some guts and gumption fighting back against in-state rival
Colorado last Saturday, but then they went for it all on the game's final play
-- instead of an easy field goal and overtime -- and lost. Very tough way to get
ready for the number one team in the country. The Rams are well coached and
haven't lost by more than three TDs in a dog's age, but this is Southern Cal,
not some Mountain West team they're facing, and possibly the best passing game
in the country. The Trojans made a habit of rolling it up last year. No reason
to soften up here.
The pick: Southern Cal.
California -34 over New Mexico State: Cal might have the best offense in the
country. New Mexico State might have one of the worst defenses in the country.
The Aggies lost their opener against a young, inexperienced Arkansas team,
63-13. Even Arkansas' second team offense beat up on them. What are they going
to do against Aaron Rodgers, Geoff MacArthur and the rest of the Cal Bears? Hold
them under triple digits?
The pick: Cal, and pray for good weather. (best bet).
Passing thoughts
I know Arkansas is very, very young this year and Texas looked like an NFL
playoff team, but it's hard to get last year's shocking loss to the Razorbacks
out of my mind. That game looked like a coaching mismatch, and this one's in
Arkansas. Plus, if you still like Texas you've got to give 11. If anything, I'd
be on the take side here. ... Kansas State struggled to get by Western Kentucky
in its opener, running Darren Sproles 42 times. Fresno looked great on "D"
upsetting Washington but didn't muster much of an offense. They'll need one this
week. ... Western Michigan has a decent passing game but no running game to
speak of. Which doesn't bode well going into Blacksburg. Virginia Tech has been
known to pile on late. ... Duke looked offensively challenged against Navy in a
game in which they got a little banged up. Now they go against Dan Orlovsky's
passing menagerie at UConn. If the Huskies break on top, we can't see how the
Dukies could recover. Before loading up, though, you might want to see if Duke
brought it's best defensive weapon for this one: The rain.
Last Week: 3-5
Best Bets: 0-2
Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last
season.
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