Announcement

**Spark** · 09-08-2004, 10:46 PM

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
11* UTAH STATE over Idaho
10* OHIO over Pittsburgh
10* MIDDLE TENN. STATE over Akron
10* SYRACUSE over Buffalo
10* OAKLAND 30 - *Pittsburgh 24

ANALYSIS
PREFERENCES
11 *UTAH STATE over Idaho
Late Score Forecast:
*UTAH STATE 38 - Idaho 13
We always counsel not to overreact to the results of one game, especially a season-opener. But must have some reaction (horror? pity?) to Idaho being laid bare last week, 65-7, at the hands of its rival Boise State. Vandals were outgained 572 to 212 and scored their only TD on a 71-yard run with just 1:20 left in the game. Rookie HC Holt (former USC LB coach) clearly has his work cut out with Idaho squad that lacks experience (only 8 starters return) & depth just about everywhere. Utah State much further along in HC Dennehy’s 5th season. Sr. QB Travis Cox started all 12 games LY. Cox kept Aggies mostly competitive in opener at Alabama (USU trailed by only 17 after 3 Qs) with a pair of TDP to his speedy new true frosh weapons, RB Chris Forbes & WR Kevin Robinson (from Florida & California, respectively). Aggies, who’ve developed a mean streak at Logan (last 3 wins there by 29 ppg!), shouldn’t need much
more than that emerging triumvirate to get comfy win.

10 OHIO over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
OHIO 19 - *Pittsburgh 24
MAC scouts consider Ohio an improving side now that Bobcats have scrapped their landlocked former option attack. We concur. OU hadn’t averaged even a 100 ypg passing in a season for a decade before QB Hawk led offense to 154 ypg thru the air LY. And sr. Hawk & the Bobcats poised to take another step forward in 2004. Ohio struck near perfect balance (230 YR, 229 YP) in 42-14 opening win over VMI last week. Hawk threw 3 TDP, while RBs sr. Roush & RS frosh McRae each had 100+ YR. Tough for transitioning Pittsburgh attack to distance itself in first game without departed o.c. Brookhart and stars Rutherford & Fitzgerald. Those losses being compounded by further attrition (top returning WR Brockenbrough injured & top RB Jawan Walker ineligible), while Panther soph QB Palko making his first start. Pitt HC Harris 5-12 as chalk; 1-6 laying DDs L2Ys! Take.

10 MIDDLE TENN. STATE over *Akron
Late Score Forecast:
MIDDLE TENN. STATE 27 - *Akron 23
CKO scouts somewhat surprised Akron is laying a full TD to an athletic, well-coached, hungry Middle Tennessee State squad eager to start season with a win after its “paycheck” game at Florida was postponed (until Oct.) due to Hurricane Frances. Look for Blue Raiders competent QBs Harris and/or Marks (still competing) & topflight corps of WRs—featuring acrobatic 5-9 Wright (73 catches, school record 9 TDs LY) & 5-7, 185 juco Baker (nicknamed “The Touchdown Maker”)—to fully exploit a totally rebuilt Zip 2ndary lacking much cohesiveness. And MTS able toestablish run right away vs. still-soft Akron front 7 (4.7 ypc LY) that gave up a whopping 342 YR in 48-10 slaughter at Penn State. Zips dynamic 6-4 sr. QB Frye still developing rapport with a new group of wideouts, and doubt mediocre RBs (just 72 YR vs. Nittany Lions) get untracked vs. a solid, deep Blue Raider front 7 that HC McCollum boasts is his best group ever! And this road trip like walk in the park for road-tested MTS, whichtraveled to Georgia, Clemson and Missouri in early nonconference tilts LY (covered 2 of those). Akron only 1-6 as home chalk last 3+ seasons.

10 SYRACUSE over *Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
SYRACUSE 42 - *Buffalo 16
After being humiliated 51-0 on national TV by sr. QB Orton and the high-tech passing of Purdue, Syracuse HC Paul Pasqualoni in desperate need of a victory, especially here in his home state. And Pasqualoni’s now under-fire defense will be desperate to redeem itself. Fortunately, it can gang up against the run against a hard-trying Buffalo team that has only 7 TDP in its last 12 games against Div. I-A competition. Moreover, Orange A-A RB Rhodes (1347 YR & 20 TDR LY) will get going against the undersized Bull front seven, taking loads of pressure off the green, but quick, Syracuse QBs. And, with the pressure mounting on Pasqualoni, expect little mercy vs. Buffalo, which lost by scores of 38-15 to Colgate & 38-7 to Connecticut at home LY, and 63-7 the last time it played Syracuse (four years ago, on the road). Scouts report Orange supporters, after the drive west, likely to outnumber the Bulls fans.

10 OAKLAND over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
[b]OAKLAND 30 - *Pittsburgh 24
(Sunday, Sept. 12)
CKO insiders report Oakland team is much more motivated to excel in ‘04 under highly-respected Norv Turer than it was under inflexible, unapproachable, and generally disliked Bill Callahan. And more harmonious, revenge-minded Raiders itching for rematch, since many disgruntled players lacked passion and focus when they lost at Pittsburgh 27-7 latter part of disastrous ‘03. In that contest, shaky Steeler 2ndary not truly tested by Oakland’s limited QB Rick Mirer, who was starting due to injury to Rich Gannon. This time, look for a healthy, quicker Gannon (lost 10 lbs. during offseason), speedy stable of WRs, and a more vertical attack to do lots of business. Pittsburgh going with a more run-oriented attack this season, but that won’t be too effective vs. Raiders fortified DL (added DT Sapp & run-stuffer NTWashington), placing more pressure on erratic QB Maddox, who has thrown a whopping 33 ints. last 2 years. Oakland’s talented, veteran 2ndary is licking its chops! Steelers just 6-11 as home chalk last 2 yrs.

TOTALS: UNDER (35) in Jacksonville-Buffalo game—With these two defenses, must consider the prospect of very few TDs, especially since Bills went “under” every home game LY...OVER (42) in Cincinnati-New York Jets game—Jets going to faster-paced offense; Carson Palmer and his “big gun” will go down firing (maybe with a few damaging interceptions).

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): KANSAS (-2½) vs. Toledo—Holes in Toledo defense might be too much for QB Gradkowski to overcome on the road...UTAH (-12) at Arizona—Few teams in opening week showed as good of a quickness/power combo as Utes; few QBs were as accurate than Alex Smith; few offenses as versatile as Urban Meyer’s...FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+ at North Texas—FAU has shown it can play with Mean Green; only negatives are the Owls’ travel (at Hawaii last week) and the humiliation factor for North Texas (blown out 65-0 in Austin)...ST. LOUIS (-11½) vs. Arizona— If the refs call the no-contact rule the same as they did in the preseason, Rams’ WRs should have a huge advantage...SAN DIEGO (+5) at Houston—Charger RB Tomlinson & QB Brees are both natives of Texas; would temper enthusiasm if Marty decides to go with rookie QB Rivers from the get-go.

**Spark** · 09-08-2004, 10:46 PM

THE GOLD SHEET TECHNICAL REPORT

SELECTIONS ARE IN BOLD PRINT!

VIRGINIA TECH
After facing top-ranked Southern Cal in its opener, Virginia Tech will get a chance to take out some frustration Saturday afternoon at Lane Stadium against outmanned Western Michigan. HC Frank Beamer’s Hokies, who throttled the Broncos by near-identical scores (30-0 & 31-0) in ’01 & ’02 meetings, have been very good value lately vs. non-conference opposition at Blacksburg, covering their last nine chances. Overall at home, VT has covered 6 of its last 7 as host, and covered 4 of 5 laying double digits at home a year ago. Meanwhile, WMU has hardly been an ornery underdog the past few seasons, standing a poor 3-10 vs. the number as the “short” since ’02, and a mere 4-13 getting points since ’01.

SMU
The latest installment of the long-running Metroplex rivalry takes place Saturday night at Fort Worth when SMU invades to face TCU at Amon Carter Stadium. And the substantial pointspread hurdle could be a bit much for the Horned Frogs to overcome again. For the past two seasons, the Mustangs, a significant underdog on each occasion, covered handily vs. their local rival. Indeed, covering any number as chalk has been a chore for recentlyovervalued TCU, which has hardly proved worth the pointspread premium it’s been receiving lately, standing just 3-10-1 vs. the number its last 14 as favorite. The Frogs have also dropped 9 of their last 11 spread decisions as a doubledigit favorite. Fired-up SMU qualifies as a featured play this week in the Rivalry Underdog system as well.

TEXAS TECH
Texas Tech has held the upper hand in recent years in its meetings vs. regional rival New Mexico. The Red Raiders have won by double-digit margins the past four seasons vs. the Lobos and haven’t dropped a pointspread decision in the process. They also haven’t lost vs. the number the last six games in this series dating to 1994, and look to succeed again in Saturday night’s faceoff at Albuquerque. Overall, Tech has offered some pretty good value as a favorite the past few years for HC Mike Leach, standing 12-5 vs. the number as chalk since ’02.

CALIFORNIA
Is Cal a juggernaut? Perhaps so, if recent results are any indication, which is bad news for visiting New Mexico State on Saturday afternoon at Berkeley. Note that the Golden Bears stand a solid 14-6-2 vs. the number their last 22 games on the board (17-8-2 since ’02) for HC Jeff Tedford, qualifying themselves as a featured play in the College Coach & Pointspread system this week. As for the Aggies, it’s been one disappointment after another on the road the past few seasons, as they’ve dropped 12 of their last 17 spread decisions as a visitor.

DENVER
It’s opening week, which has been a good omen for the Denver Broncos the past few years. HC Mike Shanahan’s bunch has covered its last four lidlifters and looks to make it five straight when hosting Kansas City Sunday night at Invesco Field. Since Shanahan arrived in Denver as coach in ’95, the Broncos have covered 7 of 9 openers, and well as 7 of 9 home openers. They’ve also covered their last three chances at home against the AFC West rival Chiefs. And, upon further inspection, one discovers that Shanahan’s bunch has excelled the past few years when hosting division foes, winning and covering 9 of 10 vs. those sorts at Invesco since its opening in 2001.

**Spark** · 09-08-2004, 10:47 PM

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:

BEST BETS
*CLEVELAND over BALTIMORE by 10
ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO* by 15

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*WASHINGTON over TAMPA BAY by 7
*NEW ORLEANS over SEATTLE by 7
UNDER 48, KANSAS CITY vs. *DENVER
*CAROLINA over GREEN BAY by 11

SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:

SUPER BEST BET
*CINCINNATI over MIAMI-OH by 21

BEST BETS
COLORADO over *WASHINGTON STATE by 9 (at Seattle)
PENN STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 10
*ALABAMA over MISSISSIPPI by 20

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*ILLINOIS over UCLA by 4
*CONNECTICUT over DUKE by 6
*NORTHWESTERN over ARIZONA ST. by 10
*OREGON over INDIANA by 12
*TCU over SMU by 14
TEXAS TECH over *NEW MEXICO by 13

ANALYSIS

BEST BET
*CLEVELAND over BALTIMORE by 10
Cleveland is the home dog with double-revenge and an entire off-season to prepare for a big intradivision re-match. The Browns have more revenge hidden behind the two lop-sided losses to Baltimore in 2003, because their new starting quarterback, Jeff Garcia, lost 44-6 to the Ravens late last season as a member of the 49ers, a game Garcia claims turned freaky in a hurry due to tipped balls. So, it’s put up or shut up for him.With Garcia behind center, the Browns gain an experienced,creative leader that has not existed for them at the position since they were re-born from scratch in 1999. The more accomplished quarterback is taking points. The Browns might even have the better defense when all is said and done this season, partly because they beefed up the DL depth in the off-season, partly because the entire unit figures to make strides in the second season under Dave Campo, partly because LB Warrick Holdman strengthens the linebacking unit, and partly because the Cleveland offensive line isn’t totally decimated by injuries going into the season like it was last year, ruining their first- and second-down production, making it harder for their lousy ex-QBs to succeed on third down, and preventing the defense from ever getting a rest. It’s the NFL, and beating the Browns three times in a row by jamming Jamal Lewis down their throats is not supposed to happen. But a drastic difference in approach is unlikely, since Baltimore QB Kyle Boller has only six NFL starts under his belt, vs. 71 for Garcia. CLEVELAND, 19-9.

BEST BET
ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO* by 15
Inside job! Falcons’ new head coach Jim Mora, Jr. was the 49ers’defensive coordinator for the last five seasons, and his offensive coordinator, Greg Knapp, had been involved as either a San Francisco offensive assistant or coordinator for the last nine seasons. Although the 49ers have turned over the roster more than the average team in the off-season, nobody on the planet knows the strengths and weaknesses of the San Francisco personnel, and coaches, better than these two guys who now call the shots for the Falcons. Each of them knows full well that Erickson wants to open up the 49ers’ offense with players who have not had featured roles within the system for very long. New starting QB Tim Rattay missed Spring practice with a badly pulled groin, didn’t make his pre-season debut until Game 3, and is supported in the backfield by a potential fumbler, Kevan Barlow, who himself is no longer supported by the presence of running mate Garrison Hearst. Asking these guys to carry the burden of offensive responsibilities in a more finesse-oriented arrangement is asking for trouble. San Francisco had an NFC best +12 Turnover Ratio last season (with the synergy between Mora’s defense and Knapp’s offense), yet still finished sub.-500. They are now on track to make more turnovers, which normally doesn’t translate to more wins. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s 1-2 punch of Mr. Inside T.J. Duckett,and Mr. Outside Warrick Dunn, can stay fresh and tire out the 49ers’ defense, which then must find the energy to chase Michael Vick around the field. ATLANTA, 31-16.

SUPER BEST BET
*CINCINNATI over MIAMI-OH by 21
New Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio has a good preparation pal in the team’s new defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, who was most recently Miami-OH’s defensive coordinator. Perhaps being armed with Narduzzi’s inside knowledge of this particular opponent is what mboldened Dantonio to add some spice to the in-state rivalry by publicly knocking Miami-OH for opening the season with Division 1-AA Indiana State. He’s daring Miami-OH to show them something, confident that Narduzzi can put his defensive personnel in place to counter nearly everything in the Miami-OH playbook now that the visitors’ plays are being executed by players other than ex-starting QB Ben Roethlisberger and some of the most massive departed senior offensive linemen in America. That confidence can prompt Dantonio to give the green light to his own QB, senior stat-seeker Gino Guidugli, who will find this secondary quite easy to riddle. Cincinnati, 41-20.

BEST BET
COLORADO over *WASHINGTON STATE by 9 (at Seattle)
Colorado has some anger brewing inside from last year’s 47-26 loss to Washington State, and some real positive energy following last week’s wild/wacky 27-24 non-cover win vs. archrival Colorado State. Colorado knows it’s not likely to get burned by big passing plays as was the case against Wazzu last year (74- and 77-yard TD pass plays). Gotta love that CU has the better quarterback, Joel Klatt, who completed all but two aerials attempts in 15 tries last week. Observing WSU QB Josh Swogger last Friday night reveals a kid who doesn’t always feel the pocketcollapsing around him. Also, quality Klatt is not Cole McCamey, the sub-par first-time starting New Mexico QB that WSU picked to death. Colorado, 30-21.

BEST BET
PENN STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 10
Last season’s Happy Valley, PA audience paid to see Bizarro Theatre, an offbeat, offensive dark comedy produced by Penn State. Immediately down 7-0, a three-and-out non-drive that started on their own 19 caused Penn State to hand BC great starting field position for the Eagles’ second drive, also ending in a TD. Then, a Zack Mills INT on his own one-yard-line cued the Fat Lady, who launched into the grotesque, “21-0 First Quarter Aria” as the curtain came down crashing on the head of a thrashing, spasming Joe Pa. The Nittanys moved the ball well enough during a comeback attempt that was doomed by BC’s expertise at chewing the clock. But a 10-play, 53-yard drive ended in a fumble, as did a 6-play 55-yard drive, and PSU also missed a field goal after taking possession at the BC 47. Facts are that the BC offense was not “extended” against this opponent a year ago, and their new QB has no track record in contentious games as a favorite against Big Ten athletes like this unit, which played well last year and can easily improve with the maturity. Penn State, 23-13.

**Spark** · 09-08-2004, 10:47 PM

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL KEY RELEASES:
N.Y. JETS by 15 over Cincinnati
SAN FRANCISCO by 7 over Atlanta
OVER 45 total points in the Seattle-New Orleans game

NCAA KEY RELEASES:
VIRGINIA TECH by 36 over Western Michigan
OKLAHOMA STATE by 32 over Tulsa
GEORGIA TECH by 3 over Clemson

Analysis of Key Selections

NY JETS 31 - Cincinnati 16—First start for Cincy wonder child Carson Palmer. And Bengal off. coord. Bob Bratkowski has been telling Palmer all summer to prepare for every blitz, stunt, and disguised coverage in the book. Still, Palmer (had no reg.-season snaps LY) has to “do it” on the field. And that should prove problematic against a NYJ defense that is faster, younger, healthier & deeper than LY and has adopted a more aggressive scheme under new def. coord. Donnie Henderson. New multi-millionaire QB Chad Pennington, running faster-paced scheme, has never looked better.

SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Atlanta 23—When former S.F. def. coord. Jim Mora Jr. left the 49ers to take over as Atlanta HC, Mora took S.F. off. coord. Gregg Knapp with him. Niner coach Dennis Erickson was quick to elevate assistants Ted Tollner to off. coord. & Willy Robinson to def. coord. So you can expect nothing but the best effort from S.F., whose top defender, LB Julian Peterson, has ended his holdout. And QB Rattay (groin, forearm) looked fine (14 of 1 once he got on the field in the late preseason. Falcon defense (last in NFL LY) youthful & problematic; Vick had only 29 exhibition snaps in new system!

OVER 45 points NEW ORLEANS 28 - Seattle 27—Seahawks were 8- 0 SU at home LY, but only 2-7 on the road. So, even with N.O. QB Aaron Brooks (check status; bothered by a strained ab in preseason) hobbled a bit, prefer to be taking with offensively-potent Saints, especially with speed receiver WR Stallworth healthy again. Still, best option in this one might be “over,” as it’s hard to see either of these defenses dominating, considering new “hands-off” guidelines. Might back off N.O. if Brooks much less than 100%. (03-SEATTLE 27-N. Orl. 10...N.20-17 S.33/151 N.25/103 N.29/47/1/256 S.12/23/0/119 S.0 N.3) (03-SEATTLE -3 27-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)

VIRGINIA TECH 46 - Western Michigan 10—Tech has ruthlessly dispatched non-conf. foes at rowdy Lane Stadium recently, covering last 9 in role. Huge step up in class for WMU, and first road start for lightly-experienced jr. QB Baggett (3 TDP in 42-0 home win over Tenn.-Martin last week). Bread-and-butter Hokie ground game will face a lot less resistance from smallish Broncs than it did in opener against rockedribbed USC. Sr. QB Randall & HC Beamer out to renew VT’s confidence. (02-Virginia Tech -22' 30-0 01-VIRGINIA TECH -15 31-0...SR: Virginia Tech 2-0)

OKLAHOMA STATE 42 - Tulsa 10—OSU completed only two passes last week in 31-20 victory at UCLA. But that was okay, as its pro-caliber OL and highquality RBs pounded out 426 yds. on the ground (Morency 252!). Since hard-trying Tulsa has been whacked by combo 73-13 last two games (Ga. Tech in bowl; Kansas last week) outside of defense-shy WAC and top LB Pinson (6-1, 240) back from injury list for bigger, deeperCowboys, will side with class difference.

Georgia Tech 27 - CLEMSON 24—Last 7 meetings decided by total of only 23 points (including 6 straight by a FG!) before Clemson caught Ga. Tech coming off a gut-wrenching 14-13 loss at Fla. State in LY’s blowout. Tigers managed to survive Wake’s upset bid last week, but Clemson attack clearly missed injured top RB Coleman. Defensive edge to Jackets. And rugged sr. RB Daniels (169 YR, 3 TDs in opener) a valuable vs. speed-oriented Tiger defense. QB Ball muchimproved TY.

**Spark** · 09-08-2004, 11:18 PM

Damn, I just saw Sports Guru sticky.... Wayne or BC delete this thread please... Thanks

**Blackbeard** · 09-09-2004, 01:06 AM

Spark, maybe you should keep this thread, not sur whats going on with sportsbookguru, seems like he wants $ for the following weeks

**bigjimt** · 09-09-2004, 01:35 AM

If anyone has the comprehensive list of all of the GoldSheet's individual game write-ups can they please post them.

That's where the good info is.

**Sports Guru** · 09-09-2004, 01:51 AM

GUYS, LISTEN DOESN'T SPARKS THREAD LOOK AWFULLY SIMILIAR TO MINE. ITS A CUT AND PAST JOB OF MY POST! IF I DO NOT POST THEM, THEY WILL NOT BE POSTED AS I ALREADY WARNED MY GUYS THAT IF THEY DO IM CANCELING THIS DEAL ALTOGETHER. . I WENT OUT THIS SEASON BOUGHT THEM ALL AND ARE JUST LOOKING FOR HELP DEFREY THE COST, ITS A SHARING PROGRAM AS I AM NOT A SERVICE. I HAVE ABOUT 4 MORE IM NOT EVEN GOING TO POST.

IM ALSO PLAN ON POSTING "SOME" 2 OR SO A WEEK AND I WILL NOT CHARGE FOR THAT.

IM NOT SELLING MY POSTS, YOU GET THE ACTUAL NEWSLETTERS AS YOU WOULD BUY IN THE STORES.

**bigjimt** · 09-09-2004, 02:14 AM

Actually, he posted the plays last week before you came around looking for cash.

**Sports Guru** · 09-09-2004, 02:25 AM

AHHH YES THATS BECAUSE HE CUT AND PASTED THEM WHEN I POSTED ON A DIFFERENT FORUM. YOU WILL SEE THEN.

THEN WHY NOT GO BUY THE SHEET YOURSELF EVERYWEEK ON THE NEWSTAND? $7/WEEK X 20 WEEKS ONLY $140. IM OFFERING THAT AND ALL THE OTHERS 13 OTHERS AS WELL AS THE FRIDAY GOLD SHEET UPDATE FOR LESS THEN THAT. I GUESS I JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND.

**Spark** · 09-09-2004, 09:31 AM

Sports, I did cut and paste from a different forum.... Not sure if it started with you because I am not sure of all the forums you post this at...

I hope you are not hinting that I stole this from you ....I never would have posted this here if I saw yours... obviously, You are in this to make money(and please do not insult our intelligence and say you will not make any money if we all send you $100)... I am here to share what I find on the net....

**bigjimt** · 09-09-2004, 01:45 PM

Well if anyone finds the GoldSheet individual game writeups for NCAAF and the NFL please post them here.

**Sports Guru** · 09-09-2004, 04:34 PM

GOLD SHEET NFL PLAYS

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

*NEW ENGLAND 27 - Indianapolis 21—Indy seeking doublerevenge vs. N.E. after pair of tough-to-take losses LY, first, being stopped on inside the Patriot 5 at the end of the game, second, a mid-Jan. loss in AFC title game in which Peyton Manning was victimized for 4 interceptions. N.E.’s bumping & shoving of the Colt receivers is largely responsible for TY’s strict interpretation of pass defense rules. Pats were 9-1 as a home fav. LY; Indy 4-1 as a dog. However, N.E. allowed fewest points in NFL, while Indy gave up 55 in last two playoff games and still has defensive “issues.” Prefer to trust Bill Belichick & new RB Corey Dillon. TV—ABC

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

Tennessee 20 - MIAMI 13—Miami’s problems seem too numerous.
Undefined running game w/o Ricky Williams; rebuilt, less-experienced OL combo; budding QB controversy; WR David Boston through for the year; pass rusher Ogunleye (15 Sacks LY) packed off to Chicago; 1-7 vs. the spread at home LY. Despite being limited by salary cap TY, Tennessee seems to have escaped major losses, especially with RB Chris Brown cruising in the preseason to 240 YR in only 32 carries! With all due respect to Eddie George, his OLmen say they are amazed by Brown’s quickness and breakaway instincts. Steve McNair appeared to be in midseason form during the exhibitions. (03-TENN. 31-Miami 7...T.17-12 T.38/101 M.16/59 T.19/26/0/223 M.19/33/3/165 T.0 M.2) (03-TENNESSEE -5' 31-7...SR: Miami 15-13)

Oakland 23 - PITTSBURGH 20—Pittsburgh going to a run-first offense TY with Duce Staley & Jerome Bettis in order to afford better opportunities for pocket-locked QB Tommy Maddox (only 18 TDs vs. 17 ints. LY) & quality WRs. However, insiders report Steeler coverage problems in the secondary past two years have not been solved. And that run-first approach might not work so well against Raider defense that is re-stocked (add NT Ted Washington, DT Warren Sapp), healthier (DE Brayton & DT Parella back in action), and trying harder TY under new HC Norv Turner. Rich Gannon has enjoyed success vs. Pittsburgh in the past (Rick Mirer started LY’s loss). (03-PITT 27-Oak. 7...P.21-9 P.40/133 O.23/122 P.19/28/1/266 O.10/25/2/39 P.1 O.1) (03-PITTSBURGH -5' 27-7...SR: Oakland 11-10)

WASHINGTON 20 - Tampa Bay 15—T.B. scouts report Jon Gruden (15-6-1 as a dog) has never been more intense. He’s added quick Charlie Garner to perk up his ground game, and masher Mike Alstott is back. LSU WR Michael Clayton appears to be an impact rookie. But this opener is soooo special for Washington fans and HC Joe Gibbs, expect absolute, supreme effort from Redskins. Savvy QB Mark Brunell, terrific RB Clinton Portis, impressive rookie S Sean Taylor, and rejuvenated LB LaVar Arrington (who Gibbs wants to transform into an intimidating 21st century version of Lawrence Taylor) ready to make their mark immediately. Bucs speed defense in the past has been vulnerable to game-long pounding, which is Gibbs’ plan with Portis. (03-T. Bay 35-WAS. 13...T.25-19 T.25/111 W.23/68 T.22/30/0/268 W.25/36/2/207 T.0 W.1) (03-Tampa Bay -3' 35-13...SR: EVEN 6-6)

Baltimore 20 - CLEVELAND 13—Baltimore had Cleveland’s number LY, as Jamal Lewis bulled for an amazing 500 yds. in two meetings, while stingy defense limited Browns to just 13 points. Even if Jeff Garcia and emerging RB Lee Suggs able to spark Cleve. offense a bit, defense must prove it’s up to the task. Not completely sold on Deion Sanders’ return, but he’ll only be asked to cover in nickel situations. Rest of Raven defense voracious enough if Kyle Boller can avoid big mistakes. (03-BALT. 33-Cle. 13...B.14-9 B.41/343 C.20/60 C.17/37/2/115 B.7/18/1/50 B.2 C.1) (03-Balt. 35-CLE. 0...B.18-14 B.41/276 C.24/78 C.17/33/1/133 B.11/19/1/83 B.0 C.3) (03-BALTIMORE -2' 33-13, Baltimore -3 35-0...SR: Baltimore 7-3)

BUFFALO 19 - Jacksonville 13—First game for new Buffalo HC Mike Mularkey, a TE in his playing days who is determined to install a smashmouth ground game to allow immobile QB Drew Bledsoe better throwing situations. Thus, look for RBs Travis Henry (check status) & Willis McGahee to try to go inside or outside of the rugged Jacksonville defense and Jack Del Rio’s prized DTs Marcus Stroud & John Henderson. Mularkey’s own rugged defense should mostly bottle up the nascent Jag offense, testing rookie PK Scobee. Bills “under” all 8 at home LY; 14 of 16 overall! (03-Buffalo 38-JACK. 17...20-20 J.22/95 B.32/43 B.20/27/0/328 J.26/40/0/192 B.0 J.0) (03-Buffalo -2' 38-17...SR: Buffalo 3-2)

NY JETS 31 - Cincinnati 16—First start for Cincy wonder child Carson Palmer. And Bengal off. coord. Bob Bratkowski has been telling Palmer all summer to prepare for every blitz, stunt, and disguised coverage in the book. Still, Palmer (had no reg.-season snaps LY) has to “do it” on the field. And that should prove problematic against a NYJ defense that is faster, younger, healthier & deeper than LY and has adopted a more aggressive scheme under new def. coord. Donnie Henderson. New multi-millionaire QB Chad Pennington, running faster-paced scheme, has never looked better. (01-NY JETS -8' 15-14...SR: N.Y. Jets 12-6)

Detroit 20 - CHICAGO 17— Detroit has lost 24 straight road games! But Lions seemingly have never been better set to end the skein. Joey Harrington (tied for most ints. LY with 22) now has two years of experience. Chicago starter Rex Grossman has 3 career starts and was 8 for 27 in last two preseason games. Detroit RB Kevin Jones & former N.E. G Damian Woody have boosted the Detroit ground game. WRs Charles Rogers, Roy Williams & Tai Streets should become a top-flight trio. And the Lions new def. coord. is Dick Jauron, the fired former coach of the Bears! Rookie Chicago HC Lovie Smith wants new defense to live off turnovers. (03-CHI. 24-Det. 16...D.16-14 D.23/86 C.26/68 C.20/31/0/193 D.23/40/2/174 C.0 D.0) (03-DET. 12-Chi. 10...C.11-10 C.24/66 D.20/17 D.24/39/0/231 C.16/28/1/133 D.0 C.0) (03-CHICAGO -3 24-16, DETROIT -1' 12-10...SR: Chicago 83-60-5)

ST. LOUIS 31 - Arizona 16—Fundamental mismatch is Rams play their best. Marc Bulger trying to cut the 22 ints. he threw LY, and OL not 100% (check to see if LT Pace re-signs). But Marshall Faulk is healthy, rookie Steven Jackson is a terrific backup, and defense led the NFL with 46 takeaways LY. Meanwhile, new Arizona coach Denny Green trying to make due with an underachieving OL, injured DL, undersized LBs, retread RBs, and injured corps of WRs. St. Louis 6-2-1 as home fav. LY. (03-ST. LOU. 37-Ariz. 13...S.34-7 S.41/133 A.14/36 S.28/42/1/268 A.13/21/0/125 S.0 A.3) (03-St. Lou. 30-ARIZ. 27 (OT)...S.26-15 A.30/166 S.26/117 S.28/44/4/298 A.15/28/2/192 S.1 A.0)(03-ST. LOUIS -11 37-13, St. Louis -7' 30-27 (OT)...SR: St. Louis 28-21-2)

OVER 45 points NEW ORLEANS 28 - Seattle 27—Seahawks were 8- 0 SU at home LY, but only 2-7 on the road. So, even with N.O. QB Aaron Brooks (check status; bothered by a strained ab in preseason) hobbled a bit, prefer to be taking with offensively-potent Saints, especially with speed receiver WR Stallworth healthy again. Still, best option in this one might be “over,” as it’s hard to see either of these defenses dominating, considering new “hands-off” guidelines. Might back off N.O. if Brooks much less than 100%. (03-SEATTLE 27-N. Orl. 10...N.20-17 S.33/151 N.25/103 N.29/47/1/256 S.12/23/0/119 S.0 N.3) (03-SEATTLE -3 27-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)

HOUSTON 21 - San Diego 20—Houston offense steadily improved LY with the addition of RB Domanick Davis (1031 YR) & WR Andre Johnson (66 recs.), but thin defense slipped to 31st overall, partly due to the injury of NT Seth Payne (knee). With the jury still out on whether Payne has regained his old Pro Bowl form, will take points with upstart San Diego and Texas natives LaDainian Tomlinson (1645 YR LY) & Drew Brees (appeared much improved in hitting 31 of 45 in preseason vs. starting defenses). Earth-moving 340-pound G Tonui Fonoti is back from injured reserve, and new def. coord. Wade Phillips has uncovered a pair of rookie pass rushers in rookis Dave Ball & Igor Olshansky. Wouldn’t be as eager with S.D. if HC Schottenheimer starts rookie QB Rivers. (02-SAN DIEGO -12' 24-3...SR: San Diego 1-0)

PHILADELPHIA 26 - NY Giants 13—Giants have failed to score more than 10 points in last 4 meetings vs. Philly, so can’t count on much improvement TY with restructured OL and TO-prone Kurt Warner (4 TDs vs. 12 ints. L2Ys) at QB. Scouts report Warner’s thumb, hand & shoulder ailments of the past are improved, but that his declining mechanics & poor pocket presence have been tough for coaches to correct. Meanwhile, Terrell Owens gives Philly QB McNabb the bigtime target he has lacked, and speedy RB Westbrook is a major weapon. (03-Phil. 14-NYG 10...N.25-9 N.41/180 P.23/87 N.22/36/0/159 P.9/23/1/47 P.1 N.2) (03-PHIL. 28-Nyg 10...20-20 N.24/109 P.21/62 P.24/30/0/314 N.25/44/1/252 P.1 N.0) (03- Philadelphia +3 14-10, PHILADELPHIA -3' 28-10...SR: NY Giants 75-63-2)

MINNESOTA 27 - Dallas 20—Interesting matchup considering that few receivers figure to benefit as much as Randy Moss from the revised antibumping rules. And with the NFL seeking to feature speed and more wideopen play, Dallas has gotten older & slower TY with the additions of Vinny Testaverde, Eddie George & Keyshawn Johnson. Maybe their experience will turn out to be a telling factor. But Vikes expect to start an improving defense with 5 No. 1 draft picks & 4 No. 2s. And the “Tuna” lost his last 4 as a dog LY by 16, 12, 26 & 19 points! (00-Minnesota -7' 27-15...SR: Dallas 13-11)

SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Atlanta 23—When former S.F. def. coord. Jim Mora Jr. left the 49ers to take over as Atlanta HC, Mora took S.F. off. coord. Gregg Knapp with him. Niner coach Dennis Erickson was quick to elevate assistants Ted Tollner to off. coord. & Willy Robinson to def. coord. So you can expect nothing but the best effort from S.F., whose top defender, LB Julian Peterson, has ended his holdout. And QB Rattay (groin, forearm) looked fine (14 of 18) once he got on the field in the late preseason. Falcon defense (last in NFL LY) youthful & problematic; Vick had only 29 exhibition snaps in new system! (01-SAN FRANCISCO -3' 16-13 (OT), San Francisco -3 37-31 (OT)...SR: SF 44-26-1)

*DENVER 30 - Kansas City 24—Even though Jake Plummer tossed four ints. in limited preseason duty, prefer to side with host and Mike Shanahan’s reportedly improved defense. Considering K.C.’s injury woes at WR this summer, the presence of deluxe CB Champ Bailey should allow him to lock down one wideout, allowing the rest of the Broncs to play 10 vs. 9 (unless Trent Green is suddenly going to run the option). Plummer 9-2 SU as a starter LY. Note, however, Chiefs 10-3-1 last 14 as an underdog. TV—ESPN (03-K. CITY 24-Denver 23...D.22-13 D.31/176 K.24/133 D.21/39/0/293 K.15/29/1/128 K.1 D.1) (03-DENVER 45-K. City 27...K.28-26 D.32/270 K.19/63 K.34/47/0/381 D.20/29/0/238 D.0 K.0) (03-KANSAS CITY -3' 24-23, DENVER -2' 45-27...SR: Kansas City 49-39)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

*CAROLINA 27 - Green Bay 23—This call largely depends on the status of G.B.’s starting OLmen, several of whom missed much or all of the preseason due to physical ailments. Without the No. 1 group in there (check status of LT Clifton, LG Wahle, and C Flanagan), Ahman Green will be slowed by the ferocious Carolina front four, and Brett Favre(previously-injured right thumb might never be the same) could drift back toward some of his awkward, highrisk throws. If the Pack front is ready to roll, Panther CBs will be severely tested by improving G.B. receivers. After all, Carolina 3-9 when favored LY (but 7-1 as dog); 11-6-1 “over” last 18 at home. TV—ABC

OK WELL THATS IT FOR ME GUYS I TRIED. PEOPLE ASK WHY I JUST DO NOT POST THEM FOR FREE AND THE ANSWER IS PRINCIPLE. I WAS ONLY LOOKING FOR A COST SHARING SITUATION AS YOU THEY COST ABOUT $120 A WEEK x 20 WEEKS YOU DO THE MATH. PLUS THE TIME IT TAKES TO SEND THEM OUT. SO THERE IS NO PROFIT TO BE MADE HERE MY FRIENDS. I EVEN THOUGHT IT WAS A REASOABLE PRICE BUT I GUESS IT SIMPLY IS NOT. AGAIN I WILL POST A FEW (1 OR 2) EVERY WEEK FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT AND I WILL CONTIUE TO SEND THEM TO MY 7 PEOPLE WHO SIGNED UP FOR THE PACKAGE.

I WISH YOU ALL THE BEST THIS COMING SEASON. HERE IS A RE-CAP OF THE NEWSLETTERS SENT OUT TO THOSE WHO TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE FREE TRIAL
1. POWERSWEEP $7
2. POWERPLAYS $7
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4. THE STEAM SHEET $10
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8. SPORTS REPORTER $8
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COMING THIS FRIDAY
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14. GOLD SHEET LATE UPDATE $10

**Spark** · 09-11-2004, 12:42 PM

The Big Green Machine's
Football Newsletter

Saturday, September 11

PRO FOOTBALL
TENNESSEE at MIAMI

This game has been moved up a day due to the impending arrival of Hurricane Ivan. Tennessee, which has failed to cover in four straight road openers, whipped Miami 31-7 last year as a five-point home chalk.

Jeff Fisher’s team is on a 21-11 ATS run. Tennessee, though, has covered just twice in its last 10 against teams from Miami’s division.

Miami went only 4-4 straight-up and 1-7 versus the number at home last year. However, in the previous three years under coach Dave Wannstedt, the Fish had gone 19-5 SU and 18-5-1 ATS in South Florida.

Miami had won 11 straight season openers, going 8-2-1 against the number, before being upset by Houston to begin the 2003 season.

The home team is on a 3-12 spread run in games involving Miami.

Totals Tip: Miami stayed under in four of five as a dog in 2003.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
UCLA at ILLINOIS

UCLA, which lost 31-20 as a one-point home chalk to Oklahoma State last week, has failed to cover in five straight on the road. The Bruins are just 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 lined games.

Illinois covered the 10-point spread in a 6-3 loss at UCLA last year. It marked the Fighting Illini’s only pointspread win in 2003 as they went 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS against Division I-A competition.

Illinois is 2-6 versus the number as a home pup since 2002.

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UNLV at WISCONSIN

UNLV won 23-5 as a heavy dog at Wisconsin last September. The Rebels are now 1-4 SU, but 4-1 ATS all-time versus the Badgers.

As a 19-point dog last Sunday night at Tennessee, the Rebels failed to cover in a 42-17 loss.

Wisconsin, which covered the 23-point number in a 34-6 win over Central Florida last week, is now 7-16 ATS as a home chalk since 2000. The Badgers have covered twice in their last 11 as a double-digit home favorite.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at VIRGINIA TECH

Western Michigan beat Tennessee-Martin 42-0 last week, but has covered just two of its last seven lined games. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 as a dog.

Virginia Tech covered in shutout wins over Western Michigan in 2001 and 2002.

As a 17-point underdog, the Hokies covered in their season-opening 24-13 loss to Southern Cal.

The Hokies have covered six of their last seven at home, but just four of their last dozen games when laying double digits in Blacksburg.

DUKE at CONNECTICUT

Duke is on a 5-13 spread run in non-conference games after failing to cover the seven-point number in a 27-12 loss at Navy last week. The Blue Devils, though, have covered eight of their last 11 on the highway.

U.Conn has covered 19 of its last 26 overall. The Huskies, who opened with a win over I-AA Murray State, are 8-4 ATS in their last dozen home games.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE

Central Michigan is just 3-9 ATS on the road since 2002, including 1-5 last season. The Chippewas are on a 1-8 ATS slide versus Big Ten competition after losing 41-10 last week at Indiana.

Michigan State lost 19-14 to Rutgers as a five-point road favorite last week. The Spartans have covered only twice in their last 10 as a double-digit home chalk.

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ARIZONA STATE at NORTHWESTERN

Arizona State failed to cover in each of its six lined road games last year. The Sun Devils haven’t won a non-conference game away from home over a BCS opponent since the 1997 Sun Bowl.

Arizona State won and covered its season opener last week in defeating visiting UTEP 41-9.

Northwestern lost, but covered its opener in a 48-45 overtime loss at TCU. The Wildcats are 8-13 ATS in their last 21 home openers, but have covered 15 of their last 22 games overall.

SOUTHERN MISS at NEBRASKA

Southern Miss is 9-3 ATS in its last dozen road openers, but has covered just twice in its last 11 as highway dogs.

As an 11-point home dog last year, the Golden Eagles had five turnovers while losing 38-14 to the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska, which drilled Western Illinois 56-17 last week, has covered six of its last eight when laying points in Lincoln.

IOWA STATE at IOWA

Iowa State had won and covered five straight in this series before losing 40-21 as a five-point home dog last year. The Cyclones snapped a 10-game losing streak with a shutout win over I-AA Northern Iowa last week.

The winner has covered 11 straight meetings in this series, which has been played every year since 1977. And the visitor has covered 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Iowa State has failed to cover 10 straight on the road.

Iowa is on home spread runs of 10-0 and 18-3 and has covered 12 straight as a double-digit chalk, including last week’s 39-7 win over Kent State.

AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE

Auburn has covered nine of its last dozen away from home, and four of its last five when installed as a road chalk.

The Tigers have covered 11 of the last 15 in this series, including last year’s 45-13 romp.

Mississippi State, which is 0-4 SU/ATS in its last four SEC openers, is just 1-7 versus the number in its last eight as a home pup. The Bulldogs, though, did win and cover in last week’s 28-7 home win over Tulane.

The Money Train Is Rollin' Again
Michael Cannon's money train pulled into the station with another winner last night on Miami of Florida. He's now on a 16-5-1 football run thanks to the Hurricanes dramatic come-from-behind overtime victory. And remember, he went 9-4 last weekend on the college gridiron.

PENN STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE

Penn State, which beat visiting Akron 48-10 in its opener, covered for just the third time in its last dozen games in beating the Zips.

Penn State lost to Boston College last year by 13 as a nine-point home chalk.

The Nittany Lions are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road openers, but have covered just once in their last six road games overall.

Boston College is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 home games, but just 1-5 against the number last year at home. The Eagles didn’t come to close to covering the 17-point spread in a 19-11 win at Ball State last week.

LOUISVILLE at ARMY

Louisville won last year’s meeting by a 34-10 count, but didn’t cover the 31-point spread. The Cardinals, who blanked visiting Kentucky last weekend, have covered five straight road openers.

Since 2002, Army has been a home dog a dozen times and is 0-12 SU and 2-8-2 ATS in those games. The Cadets have also dropped seven straight games ATS at West Point.

BALL STATE at PURDUE

Ball State is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 appearances as a double-digit dog after covering the 17-point number last week against visiting Boston College. The Cardinals are 3-6 ATS in their last nine against Big Ten teams.

This is the first meeting since 1997 for the two schools located about 120 miles apart. Purdue is 8-1 ATS at home since last year, including last weekend’s 51-0 dismantling of visiting Syracuse.

MICHIGAN at NOTRE DAME

The dog has cashed the Vegas ticket in 15 of the last 18 meetings in this classic rivalry.

Michigan was on a 0-4 ATS slide versus the Irish before pasting them 38-0 in 2003. The Wolverines have covered 11 of their last 14 as a favorite, including last week’s 43-10 win over Miami Ohio as a two-touchdown chalk.

While the visitor has covered eight of the last dozen meetings, the Wolverines are a mere 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road openers.

Notre Dame is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games after losing outright at BYU last week. The Fighting Irish have also covered just twice in their last eight games in South Bend.

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA

North Carolina, which beat I-AA William & Mary 49-38 in its opener, has failed to cover in six straight meetings with the Cavaliers. The Tar Heels, though, have covered five straight road openers and six of their last eight on the highway overall.

Virginia trailed 21-0 at the break last year as a five-point favorite, but roared back big time to cover in a 37-27 win over the Heels. The Cavaliers, who have now won five of the last six meetings, are 10-3 ATS at Scott Stadium since 2002.

MARSHALL at OHIO STATE

Marshall lost 17-15 to Troy State last week as a two-touchdown home chalk. The Thundering Herd have covered just twice in their last nine as a road dog, but did win outright at Kansas State last September.

Ohio State is just 5-8-1 ATS when laying double digits since Jim Tressell arrived in 2001. The Buckeyes have covered 11 of their last 16 as a home chalk, though.

COLORADO vs WASHINGTON STATE

This game is being played in Seattle.

Colorado won but didn’t cover in a 27-24 season-opening win over in-state rival Colorado State. The Buffaloes, who are only 7-19 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, have gone 12-6 against the number in their last 18 as a dog outside of Boulder.

Washington State is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS in games played in Seattle with wins over Idaho and Nevada.

The Cougars, who won and covered their opener at New Mexico despite being outplayed and out-gained, have covered five of their last six against Big 12 competition.

INDIANA at OREGON

Indiana covered the two-touchdown spread in a 41-10 victory over visiting Central Michigan last week. The Hoosiers are on runs of 0-4 ATS in road openers, and 1-5 versus the number in non-conference games.

This is the season opener for Oregon, which is only 5-10 ATS in its last 15 as a home chalk. The Ducks, who have covered nine of their last dozen against Big Ten opponents, are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home openers.

BYU at STANFORD

In last year’s first-ever meeting, six turnovers did in seven-point favorite BYU in an 18-14 loss to the Cardinal.

The slight underdog Cougars held on for an outright win over visiting Notre Dame last week as they’re now 10-19 ATS in their last 29 overall.

BYU, though, has covered 12 of its last 14 when playing on the road with revenge.

Stanford covered easily at home last week in a 43-3 win over San Jose State. The Cardinal have covered all four games when installed as a home chalk under coach Buddy Teevens.

Stanford has also covered five of its last six home openers.

GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA

Georgia is on a 6-3 SU/ATS run in this annual showdown, but is only 3-6 against the number in its last nine visits to Columbia. The Bulldogs, who opened with a 48-28 win over I-AA Georgia Southern, are 6-1-1 ATS as a road favorite under coach Mark Richt.

South Carolina, which had an impressive win and cover at Vanderbilt in the opener, is 5-8-1 ATS at home since 2002. The Gamecocks have covered just one of their last seven home openers, but the host is on a 13-5-1 ATS run in this series.

TEMPLE at MARYLAND

Temple, which dropped its opener 44-14 to visiting Virginia, is on a 14-6 spread run as a home dog. The Owls have covered nine of 12 as a double-digit road pup since 2002.

Maryland did not cover the two-touchdown spread in a three-point win over visiting Northern Illinois last week. The Terps, though, are on spread runs of 31-14 overall and 16-3 when laying points at home.

SYRACUSE at BUFFALO

Syracuse, which was embarrassed 51-0 at Purdue last week, is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 as a chalk. The Orangemen have also covered eight of their last nine against MAC foes.

Buffalo dropped its opener, 37-34 at Eastern Michigan. The Bulls are on spread runs of 5-10 as a home dog and 2-6 when getting double digits in their own stadium.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at FLORIDA

Eastern Michigan did not cover the seven-point number in its three-point win over Buffalo nine days ago. The Eagles are a horrid 3-18 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.

They have, however, cashed the Vegas ticket in three of the last four opportunities when they were getting at least 25 points.

Florida is playing its opener after last week’s game against Middle Tennessee State was postponed due to Hurricane Frances. The Gators, who play at Tennessee next week, are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 at The Swamp.

WEST VIRGINIA at CENTRAL FLORIDA

West Virginia, which covered in a 56-23 home win over East Carolina last week, has covered four straight as a road chalk. The Mountaineers have also covered in 31 of their last 35 straight-up victories.

Last year, the 20-point favorite Mountaineers allowed Central Florida to get the backdoor cover in a 36-18 West Virginia win.

Central Florida is on a 1-5 ATS slide as a home pup. It’s just 2-10 versus the number in its last dozen when playing with revenge.

The Golden Knights, who didn’t cover in a 28-point loss at Wisconsin last week, are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.

OHIO at PITTSBURGH

Ohio beat VMI 42-14 last week and is 11-6 ATS as a double-digit dog since 2001. The Bobcats have also covered seven of their last 10 road openers.

Pittsburgh’s opener at South Florida was postponed due to Hurricane Frances. Since 2002, the Panthers are just 5-12 ATS as a chalk and 1-6 against the number as a double-digit favorite.

MIAMI OHIO at CINCINNATI

Miami Ohio is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the last three years against the Bearcats. The Redhawks didn’t cover in losing by 33 at Michigan last week, but they’ve still scored the ATS win in 10 of their last 14 games.

The underdog has covered five of the last seven in this long-running state rivalry.

Cincinnati fell by 21 points at Ohio State last week and only covered one of five homes games in 2003.

WAKE FOREST at EAST CAROLINA

Wake Forest covered the 11-point spread in a disappointing 37-30 overtime loss at Clemson last week. The Demon Deacons, who have covered seven of their last 10 away from home, are only 3-9-1 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons.

Last year, Wake Forest didn’t cover the 19-point number versus East Carolina in a 34-16 home win.

East Carolina is 5-2 ATS as a double-digit dog after failing to cover the 27-point spread last week at West Virginia. The Pirates have scored the ATS win just once in their last nine home openers.

TOLEDO at KANSAS

Toledo was blasted 63-21 at Minnesota last week, but has still covered 17 of its last 26 games. The Rockets, who have not won a non-conference road game since September 2001, have covered seven of their last eight coming off a straight-up loss.

Kansas won and covered last week in beating Tulsa, 21-3. The Jayhawks are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 at home, but have covered four straight in Lawrence when favored by 10 or less.

HOUSTON at OKLAHOMA

Houston lost outright to underdog Rice last week as the Cougars were held to just seven points. They have failed to cover six of the last seven years in the game after facing the cross-town rival Owls.

Houston is just 1-5 versus the number in its last six as a double-digit road pup. The Cougars, though, are on a 7-2 ATS non-conference run.

Oklahoma didn’t cover the 33 points last week in a 40-24 win over visiting Bowling Green. Including that spread loss, the Sooners are just 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 games as a home chalk of 21-or-more points.

TULSA at OKLAHOMA STATE

Tulsa lost 21-3 as a three-point pup at Kansas last weekend. The Golden Hurricane is now 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games and has covered just 10 times in its last 66 straight-up losses.

Tulsa is also 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 versus Big 12 competition.

Oklahoma State won 31-20 at UCLA last week and is 5-1 ATS in its last six lined non-conference games. The Cowboys have covered five straight as a double-digit chalk since 2002.

SMU at TCU

SMU covered the 23-point number in a 27-13 home loss to Texas Tech a week ago. The Mustangs have covered two straight in this series, including last year when they lost by just seven as a 24-point road pup.

SMU has covered just once in its last nine as a road pup. The visitor, however, is on a 16-6-1 spread run in this series.

TCU was favored by a touchdown last week against visiting Northwestern, but won by just a field goal in a high-scoring overtime affair. The Horned Frogs have won 21 of their last 25 games, but are only 11-14 against the number in that stretch.

FRESNO STATE at KANSAS STATE

Fresno State used three defensive touchdowns to rally for the win and cover at Washington last week. The Bulldogs are on runs of 10-4 ATS as a road dog and 16-3 versus the number in non-conference games.

Kansas State beat I-AA Western Kentucky 27-13 in its opener. The Wildcats have failed to cover in five straight non-conference tilts, but are on a 10-2-1 ATS run in their first lined home game of the year.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON

Georgia Tech has covered six of its last eight on the road. The Yellow Jackets, who opened up with a win over I-AA Samford, are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three years against the Tigers.

The underdog has covered the last nine in this series, and seven of the last eight have been decided by five points or less.

Clemson is on spread runs of 5-1 and 8-2 over the Jackets. The Tigers are only 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 conference home games after failing to cover against Wake Forest last week.

WYOMING at TEXAS A&M

Wyoming opened with a 53-7 win over I-AA Appalachian State last week. The Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 when getting double digits. They’re just 6-12 versus the number in their last 18 non-conference games, though.

Texas A&M lost 41-21 to Utah in its first game. The Aggies have failed to cover in eight of their last nine non-conference outings, including all five under coach Dennis Franchione. Since his arrival in College Station last year, Texas A&M is 1-12 against the number.

TEXAS TECH at NEW MEXICO

Texas Tech won, but didn’t cover the near three-touchdown spread at SMU last week. The Red Raiders have won and covered six straight over New Mexico, including in each of the past four years.

Texas Tech is on a 13-1 spread run against teams playing with revenge.

New Mexico outplayed Washington State in its opener but failed to win or cover as the Lobos are now 12-5 ATS in their last 17 regular season games.

New Mexico has failed to win or cover its second game of the season for seven straight years.

COLORADO STATE at SOUTHERN CAL

Colorado State was stopped on the one-yard line as the game ended last week in a 27-24 loss to bitter rival Colorado. The Rams have covered just once in the last five years in the game after playing the hated Buffaloes.

Colorado State has covered 14 of its last 17 when installed as a road pup.

Southern Cal won, but did not cover in its season opener against Virginia Tech. Still, the Trojans are on spread runs of 18-3 overall and 8-1 at home.

TEXAS at ARKANSAS

Texas easily covered in a 65-0 rout of North Texas last week. The Longhorns are 0-2 SU/ATS in the only two meetings with the Razorbacks since 1991.

Arkansas won the 1999 Cotton Bowl by a 27-6 final. Then last year, the 13-point underdog Razorbacks won 38-28 in Austin. The Longhorns are on a 5-1 spread run when playing with revenge against a non-conference opponent.

Texas has also covered five straight as a road chalk.

Arkansas blasted New Mexico State 63-13 a week ago. The Razorbacks, who have covered 10 of their last 11 as a home dog, are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Big 12 competition.

MISSISSIPPI at ALABAMA

The straight-up winner has covered 18 of the last 20 in this series.

Mississippi was upset at home last week by three-point underdog Memphis. The Rebels, who have covered six of their last seven when getting double digits on the highway, won last year’s meeting 43-28 as a three-point favorite.

Alabama, which is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing with revenge, has failed to cover in six straight conference home games.

The Crimson Tide, which is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Ole Miss, won and covered its opener in beating visiting Utah State, 48-17.

UTAH at ARIZONA

Utah, which won and covered its opener against visiting Texas A&M, has covered eight of its last 10 road openers. The Utes, though, are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when laying points on the road.

Utah has also scored the ATS win in 12 of its last 13 non-conference games.

Arizona opened the year with a 21-3 win over I-AA Northern Arizona. The Wildcats are 5-11 ATS the last five years as a home dog. These two last met in 2002 as Arizona scored a 23-17 win as a three-point home dog.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at AKRON

Middle Tennessee State had its opener at Florida postponed due to Hurricane Frances. The Blue Raiders have covered five of their last seven on the highway.

Akron lost by 38 at Penn State last week. The Zips went only 1-3 ATS at home in 2003 and are 3-9 versus the number there since 2001. As a home chalk, Akron has failed to cover in six of its last seven such opportunities.

NEW MEXICO STATE at CALIFORNIA

New Mexico State lost by 50 points at Arkansas in its opener. In their only other meeting with Cal in 2002, the Aggies failed to cover the 12-point spread in a 34-13 loss to the Bears.

California whacked Air Force last week by a 56-14 score, as it is now 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. The Bears have covered three of their last four home openers.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE at LOUISIANA TECH

Louisiana-Lafayette slipped past I-AA Northwestern State 14-7 in its opener last week. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered four of their last five road openers and have revenge on their mind.

Last year, Louisiana Tech rolled 34-3 to snap an eight-game road losing streak. Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings with its state rival.

Louisiana Tech won and covered against visiting Nevada this past Monday. The Bulldogs are 11-6 ATS in their last 17 as a home chalk.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at NORTH TEXAS

Florida Atlantic pulled a shocker last week as the 21-point underdog Owls won 35-28 in overtime at Hawaii. This will be a conference game next year when Florida Atlantic officially joins the Sun Belt.

North Texas was blasted by Texas, 65-0 last week. Still, the Mean Green has covered nine of its last 11 as a home chalk and nine of its last 10 non-conference home games.

ARKANSAS STATE at LSU

Arkansas State lost 52-20 at Missouri in its season opener. The Indians are only 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference road games, but they have covered eight of their last 10 against SEC competition.

LSU survived a real scare last Saturday night in beating Oregon State 22-21 in overtime. That marked the first time in six games that the Tigers didn’t cover as a double-digit home favorite.

The Tigers, who play at Auburn next week, are 9-4 ATS in September games under coach Nick Saban.

IDAHO at UTAH STATE

Idaho was drilled 65-7 last week at Boise State. Coming off a loss, the Vandals have covered four straight when installed as a pup.

Idaho, which won last year’s meeting 20-13, is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog.

Utah State went 3-1 against the number as a home chalk in 2003. The Aggies have also covered six of their last nine home games overall.

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