2004 Football Newsletters (week #2)

[Cubs04]

SportsGuru thanks this is great info, Will you be providing this everyweek?

[wayne1218]

He wants $100 for the plays to cover costs.

[Sports Guru]

No not for the plays, you would actually be getting the whole newsletters you have to see them to believe it. send me an email and im giving out free this week. [email protected]

GUYS CHECK BACK LATER TONIGHT IM GOING TO HAVE A BUNCH MORE POSTED BY 8:30 GIVE OR TAKE A FEW MINUTES

[surveyor]

Thanks for the newsletters guru. In the report above you list winning points had a 5-1 record last week? If you read the letter it appears it went 3-3. Might want to check that stat.
Thanks

[Sports Guru]

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL KEY RELEASES:
N.Y. JETS by 15 over Cincinnati
SAN FRANCISCO by 7 over Atlanta
OVER 45 total points in the Seattle-New Orleans game

NCAA KEY RELEASES:
VIRGINIA TECH by 36 over Western Michigan
OKLAHOMA STATE by 32 over Tulsa
GEORGIA TECH by 3 over Clemson

Analysis of Key Selections

NY JETS 31 - Cincinnati 16—First start for Cincy wonder child Carson Palmer. And Bengal off. coord. Bob Bratkowski has been telling Palmer all summer to prepare for every blitz, stunt, and disguised coverage in the book. Still, Palmer (had no reg.-season snaps LY) has to “do it” on the field. And that should prove problematic against a NYJ defense that is faster, younger, healthier & deeper than LY and has adopted a more aggressive scheme under new def. coord. Donnie Henderson. New multi-millionaire QB Chad Pennington, running faster-paced scheme, has never looked better.

SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Atlanta 23—When former S.F. def. coord. Jim Mora Jr. left the 49ers to take over as Atlanta HC, Mora took S.F. off. coord. Gregg Knapp with him. Niner coach Dennis Erickson was quick to elevate assistants Ted Tollner to off. coord. & Willy Robinson to def. coord. So you can expect nothing but the best effort from S.F., whose top defender, LB Julian Peterson, has ended his holdout. And QB Rattay (groin, forearm) looked fine (14 of 18) once he got on the field in the late preseason. Falcon defense (last in NFL LY) youthful & problematic; Vick had only 29 exhibition snaps in new system!

OVER 45 points NEW ORLEANS 28 - Seattle 27—Seahawks were 8- 0 SU at home LY, but only 2-7 on the road. So, even with N.O. QB Aaron Brooks (check status; bothered by a strained ab in preseason) hobbled a bit, prefer to be taking with offensively-potent Saints, especially with speed receiver WR Stallworth healthy again. Still, best option in this one might be “over,” as it’s hard to see either of these defenses dominating, considering new “hands-off” guidelines. Might back off N.O. if Brooks much less than 100%. (03-SEATTLE 27-N. Orl. 10...N.20-17 S.33/151 N.25/103 N.29/47/1/256 S.12/23/0/119 S.0 N.3) (03-SEATTLE -3 27-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)

VIRGINIA TECH 46 - Western Michigan 10—Tech has ruthlessly dispatched non-conf. foes at rowdy Lane Stadium recently, covering last 9 in role. Huge step up in class for WMU, and first road start for lightly-experienced jr. QB Baggett (3 TDP in 42-0 home win over Tenn.-Martin last week). Bread-and-butter Hokie ground game will face a lot less resistance from smallish Broncs than it did in opener against rockedribbed USC. Sr. QB Randall & HC Beamer out to renew VT’s confidence. (02-Virginia Tech -22' 30-0 01-VIRGINIA TECH -15 31-0...SR: Virginia Tech 2-0)

OKLAHOMA STATE 42 - Tulsa 10—OSU completed only two passes last week in 31-20 victory at UCLA. But that was okay, as its pro-caliber OL and highquality RBs pounded out 426 yds. on the ground (Morency 252!). Since hard-trying Tulsa has been whacked by combo 73-13 last two games (Ga. Tech in bowl; Kansas last week) outside of defense-shy WAC and top LB Pinson (6-1, 240) back from injury list for bigger, deeperCowboys, will side with class difference.

Georgia Tech 27 - CLEMSON 24—Last 7 meetings decided by total of only 23 points (including 6 straight by a FG!) before Clemson caught Ga. Tech coming off a gut-wrenching 14-13 loss at Fla. State in LY’s blowout. Tigers managed to survive Wake’s upset bid last week, but Clemson attack clearly missed injured top RB Coleman. Defensive edge to Jackets. And rugged sr. RB Daniels (169 YR, 3 TDs in opener) a valuable vs. speed-oriented Tiger defense. QB Ball muchimproved TY.

[Sports Guru]

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK NOTRE DAME +12 over MICHIGAN

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Texas over ARKANSAS
3* ALABAMA over Ole Miss
3* TEXAS A&M over Wyoming
2* S. Miss (+) over NEBRASKA
2* Iows St. (+) over IOWA
2* Penn State over BOSTON COLLEGE


SUMMARY OF NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Jacksonville over BUFFALO
3* ST. LOUIS over Arizona
2* Tampa Bay over WASHINGTON
2* Detroit over CHICAGO

[Sports Guru]

PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWRENCE

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Penn State over BOSTON COLLEGE by 7
Rest assured, this is a game Joe Pa will have a vested interest in. Nittany Lions are 11-1 ATS as underdogs or short favorites in their first road game of the season and Boston College is 0-4 ATS at home against avenging non-conference foes in its last four tries. We said last week that we thought Penn State would return to glory this season and avenging last season's 13-point home loss is one of the biggest red circles on its calendar. The young Eagles step up in class after playing barefooted Ball State last week.

SUMMARY OF 5* SELECTIONS: (LASR YEAR OVER 74%)
TEXAS
BRONCOS
SAINTS UNDER

SUMMARY OF 4* SELECTIONS:
NOTRE DAME
DOLPHINS
STEELERS OVER

SUMMARY OF 3* SELECTIONS:
SOU. MISS.
SAINTS
49ers UNDER

Analysis of 5* Best Bet Selections

Texas over ARKANSAS by 14
Texas remembers well laying 13.5 at home to the Pigs lastseason and taking a 10 point loss to the locker room. That revenge and the fact that Arkansas has only four returning starters from that upset win has us smelling a roast. Remember, the Longhorns were 5-0 SUATS as visitors last season and are 26-6-1 ATS in SU revenge wins. In fact, Mack Brown himself stands 18-3 ATS in SU revenge victories. LeHog is 6-36-1 ATS in SU home losses. Hook 'em Horns.

DENVER over Kansas City by 13
The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five home openers, 4-1 ATS as home chalk of -3 or less, 9-1 ATS at home vs the division and 4-0 ATS vs division opponents with revenge. All of this is the handiwork of Head Coach Mike Shanahan, the answer to this week's Trivia Teaser feature at the bottom of page 2 (the fact that Shanahan's teams have gone 44-10-1 ATS lifetime when winning a division game certainly bears repeating). Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as road dogs of +3 or less. With every one pencilling in KC into the AFC Championship game, we'll erase those thoughts and take the Broncos in the toughest venue in the NFL.

[frankb03]

MTi NFL Report

MTI’s NFL Selections . . . Week #1, 2004

Side Play of the Week!!
4* CHICAGO -3 over Detroit—Chicago has beaten the
Lions straight up as a favorite at home in each of the
past three seasons and we see no reason for this to
change here. Bears QB Grossman has not exactly had
a stellar pre-season, but with a solid running game
(Thomas Jones 6.5 ypc in the preseason) and a solid
defense, the Bears should put this one in the win column
for new head coach Lovie Smith. The Bears have
road games vs Green Bay and Minnesota over the next
two weeks so they will go all out to ensure victory here
to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start.
The Lions are in a completely different scheduling
situation. They are on the road with two home games
next with the Texans next week. Detroit will save their
best effort for their winnable home opener. Historically,
the Lions have focused mainly on their home games.
There’s good reason for this as Detroit is 0-24 straight
up since 2001 on the road — 0-30 including the preseason!
That’s right, the Lions have not won a road
game in three seasons. Their road ineptitude starts in
the first quarter of their road opener.
In their last three road openers, Detroit has been
outscored in the first quarter by a 42-3 margin!! Finally,
we have a league-wide system that has not lost
in thirteen seasons! It reads, “The league is 10-0 ATS
since 1991 in game 1 as a 1-3 point favorite vs a divisional
opponent when they have a divisional opponent
next week as long as the total is fewer than 43 points.”
The Bears qualify here as they have the Packers next
week. The league has covered — on the average — by
more than a touchdown in this situation.
For most intents and purposes, Detroit’s season
starts next week when they host the Texans. Lay the
small number.
FORECAST: CHICAGO 24 Detroit 10

Other Side Selection
3* Baltimore -2’ over CLEVELAND—The schedulemakers
have given the New Browns a chance to start
off the season with a win, as they have played game
one at home in each of their five seasons in the league.
Unfortunately, Cleveland has not taken advantage as
they are 0-5 straight up at home in game one.
The Ravens are very tough to beat when they are
favored and the OU line is low. Baltimore is a perfect
10-0 ATS when they are favored by more than two points
and the OU line is fewer than 38 points. In this situation
the Ravens have won by an average of 15.8 points
per game and covered by an average of 10.5 ppg. In
addition, the Browns perform terribly as a dog when
the OU line is low. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS as a dog when
the OU line is fewer than 38 points losing by an average
of 19.0 ppg and failing to cover by an average of
13.7 ppg. Yes, the Browns have revenge motivation for
their 13-33 and 0-35 losses but the smash-mouth Ravens
should rip the heart out of the Browns in the first half.
Finally, the Ravens qualify for the same system
mentioned in the top play. Specifically, “The league is
10-0 ATS since 1991 in game 1 as a 1-3 point favorite
vs a divisional opponent when they have a divisional
opponent next week as long as the total is fewer than
43 points.” Baltimore hosts the Steelers next week so
this one qualifies.
Note: for many more great systems, including a
26-0 ATS system and a 22-0 OU system, order a copy
of the 262-page 2004 Killer Sports NFL Annual. See
the front page of this issue for a special offer.
FORECAST: BALTIMORE 20 Cleveland 3

OU Play of the Week!!
4* Cincinnati at NY Jets UNDER 41—The Jets are
0-12 ATS and 2-10 their last dozen home openers. Head
coach Edwards knows about the Jets’ poor starts and
will be very deliberate to prevent the costly turnover.
He will feature a stiff defense and a heavy dose of
Curtis Martin — especially when they have the lead.
The Jets are 1-12 OU their last 13 as a home favorite
by at least 3 points, with an average OU margin of
minus 12.0 ppg.
The lone over was by two points in a game that included
a punt return for a TD and a TD drive of 11
yards after a fumble recovery. The average OU margin
in the 13 games is minus 12.0 ppg. In addition,
the Jets are 0-3 OU their last three vs non-divisional
opponents going under by an average of 17.5 ppg and
the Bengals are 0-3 OU since when their opponent is
playing in their home opener, with an average OU
margin of minus 14.2 ppg.
With Palmer seeing his first action as a rookie, Lewis
should play conservatively on offense to let Palmer get
acclimated to the pros. Everything points to a low scoring
game. Get it before it drops to 41 or below.
FORECAST: NY JETS 17 Cincinnati 16

[BettorsChat]

Red Sheet?

[bigjimt]

If anyone has the comprehensive list of all of the GoldSheet's individual game write-ups can they please post them.

That's where the good info is.

[Sports Guru]

bigjimt send me an email and I will send you a copy of this weeks goldsheet.

THE RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
89* GEORGIA TECH
89* SYRACUSE
88* PENN STATE
88* COLORADO
88* ALABAMA
88* CAROLINA (NFL)
Analysis

Georgia Tech 24 - CLEMSON 22 - (8:00 EDT) Line opened at Clemson minus 9, and is now minus 7½. As our Wise Points section on Pointwise showed, this series is solidly in the domain of the underdog,with the pup covering an amazing 13-of-14 since '90, with final margins of exactly 3 pts for 6 consecutive years. A year ago, the dog still yapped, but it was far from a nailbiter, as the Tigers (+6) rolled by a 39-3 count. The fact of the matter, however, is that the Jackets were in off one of their most excruciating losses in their history, blowing a 13- 0 fourth quarter lead to FlaSt. They now catch the Tigers off a draining win over WakeForest, in a game that saw Clemson with a 254-83 RYdeficit. Overland game in this on squarely on Tech's side with Daniels. Revenge rears its head in this bitter rivalry.
RATING: GEORGIA TECH 89

Syracuse 37 - BUFFALO 10 - (6:00) Line opened at Syracuse minus 17, and is now minus 15½. The Orange have hit hard times, indeed, with their current 10-15 straightup record, since defeating KansasSt in the '01 Insight Bowl. As noted on this publication a week ago, they are reaping the seeds of yearly disappointing results in the all-important recruiting wars. The chorus calling for Pasqualoni's dismissal has grown to a crescendo of late, reaching its peak following Sunday's disastrous nationally televised 51-0 loss to Purdue. Thus, a plethora of negativity. However, the Bulls present the perfect foil to getting back on the right track. Buffalo is on SU runs of 1-22, & 7-45. 'Cuse simply underpriced in this setup.
RATING: SYRACUSE 89

Penn State 30 - BOSTON COLLEGE 20 - (8:00) Line opened at Boston College minus 2, & is now Penn St minus 1½. Not getting many breaks, as far as line changes are concerned, but neither,did we a week ago, in that satisfying opening week. We asked on our earlier edition, when Paterno was "serving notice" with the Lions' slaughter of Akron. Sure, the Zips are hardly a power, but returned a dozen starters from LY's decent 7-5 squad, which provided plenty of offensive fireworks. They managed just 10 pts, along with a 352-72 RY deficit vs the Nits, in that 22½ pt spread loss. Eagles have played well vs State, but won'tduplicate LY's 21-0 first quarter lead, which quickly settled matters. Paterno revenger.
RATING: PENN STATE 88

Colorado 31 - WASHINGTON STATE 20 - (3:30) Line opened at Washington St minus 3, and is now minus 2½. As with PennSt & GaTech above, revenge is again front-&-center with this selection. The Coogs of WashSt are seeking their 4th consecutive 10-win season, & by year's end, things just may work out. However, they have been decimated by graduation, returning just 6 starters, including all defensive linemen, & their quarterback. Contrast that to Buffs returning 14 starters, including 7 down linemen, RB Purify, & QB Klatt. Note Purify's 189 RYs vs ColoSt, compared to WashSt's anemic 31 RYs vs NewMex last week. Year ago, all that could have gone wrong for Buffs in loss to Coogs, did. Changes here.
RATING: COLORADO 88

ALABAMA 38 - Mississippi 13 - (9:00) Line opened at Alabama minus 10, and is now minus 10½. As we figured a week ago, in naming Memphis as a Superior Play on the Red Sheet, the Rebs of Ole Miss would be hard pressed to come near duplicating their recent exploits, under the guiding hand of Eli Manning. That proved out in their opener, as they managed a paltry 58 RYs (just 1.8 yds per carry), in that 10-pt ATS setback. Spurlock, who carries the heavy cross of Manning's replacement, was able to click on only 11-of-31 passes vs the Tigers, while his counterpart, 'Bama QB Croyle was a solid 16-of-22 vs UtahSt. The Tide has won the last 2 as series host by near identical 45-7 & 42-7 scores. Once more.
RATING: ALABAMA 88

CAROLINA 26 - Green Bay 20 - (9:05 Monday) Line opened at Carolina minus 3, and is still minus 3. Despite the fact that the New England Pats are again world champs, 2003's true story just may have been the extraordinary & legitimate rise of these Panthers, as they came from a 1-15 record to within a few plays from Super Bowl winners in just 2 years. Fox has built a true contender, with that defense, a quality QB in Delhomme, & a powerful running game. The Packers have been one of the premier Monday Night plays lately, covering to the tune of 9-2, but during much of that span, they were among the elites. A definite feeling that despite presence of Favre, Green, etc, GreenBay is no longer in that column.
RATING: CAROLINA 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Wake Forest, Va Tech, Utah - NFL: Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia

[bigjimt]

Why not just post it here so all handicappers can enjoy it and... oh wait you're looking for money right?

Oh well... I'll wait for an actual handicapper to post it for everyone as opposed to giving you my email address so it can end up on a mailing list.

[Sports Guru]

THINK WHAT YOU WANT, I IF COSMO ALLOWED ME TO KEEP A STICKY IM A LEGIT, HONEST PERSON. YOU WOULD NOT BE ON A MAILING LIST AND I ASSURE YOU I WOULD NOT PROFIT FROM ANYTHING.

WELL MY OFFER IS OUT THERE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM OR JUST THE GOLD SHEET NEWSLETTERS I WOULD BE HAPPY TO GIVE THEM TO YOU. BUT IM NOT GOING TO POST THE WHOLE NEWSLETTER I WILL SIMPLY TAKE TO LONG.

I CAN DISCUSS THIS VIA IM OR WHATEVER, SO YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE WHAT IM TALKING ABOUT...I MOT SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THAT IM NOT TRYING TO PROFIT ONLY SHARE SO I CAN DO THIS NEXT YEAR.

[frankb03]

Originally posted by wayne1218
He wants $100 for the plays to cover costs.

$100 in total OR $100 from each member who wishes to pay?

[BettorsChat]

$100 per person