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**Sports Guru** · 09-07-2004, 02:16 AM

WINNINGPOINTS

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** Baltimore over *Cleveland by 17
*** Tennessee over *Miami by 16

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Detroit over *Chicago by 7
*San Francisco over Atlanta by 6

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** PENN STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE* by 14
*** TEXAS over ARKANSAS* by 24

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Virginia Tech* over Western Michigan by 34
Miami O. over Cincinnati* by 11
Georgia Tech over Clemson* by 2
Colorado over Washington State* by 8 (at Seattle)

Analysis of "Best Bet" Rated Selections

****BEST BET
Baltimore over *Cleveland by 17

Jamal Lewis and the Ravens defense have been a tough combination for the Browns to crack. The Ravens have won and covered four of their last five times in Cleveland. The Ravens swept the Browns last year, outscoring them by a combined margin of 68-13. Lewis was a one-man wrecking crew rushing for a staggering 500 yards against the Browns in last season’s two games. Lewis’ pending drug conspiracy trial couldn’t come soon enough for Cleveland. Unfortunately it won’t help the Browns here. The Ravens have held the Browns to an average of 8.6 points the past three meetings. The Ravens, No. 3 in defense last year, are just as tough this season adding Deion Sanders to fill their one hole at nickel back. During preseason the Ravens defense allowed only three touchdowns, with two coming against backups. The Browns, on the other hand, have trouble scoring. In four of the past five seasons they’ve ranked 32nd, 32nd, 25th and 29th in scoring. Cleveland is changing its offense switching to a power ground attack with running backs Lee Suggs and William Green. The Ravens and Ray Lewis, though, are extremely tough to run on. Browns QB Jeff Garcia is an upgrade on Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb, but he hasn’t had enough time to get adjusted to his new surroundings. The Ravens figure to be conservative on offense with second-year man Kyle Boller at quarterback. They should be fine running Lewis, with Boller throwing an occasional safe pass to keep the Browns from stacking the line too much. The Browns lack playmakers in their secondary, and their linebackers are slow and susceptible to cutbacks. No back exploited this more last year than Lewis. There is a class difference between these two teams. Laying a short number on the road isn’t too much to ask in this matchup. BALTIMORE 27-10.

***BEST BET
Tennessee over *Miami by 16

No team had a worse off-season than Miami. Call it the off-season from hell. The Dolphins lost most of their starting offensive line from a year ago, had assistant coaching turmoil and suffered key injuries, among them losing WR David Boston for the season. If this wasn’t demoralizing enough, Ricky Williams decided to take a hike at the last moment leaving the Dolphins’ ground game in tatters. Talk about going to pot in a hurry. Thanks for the memories Ricky. When you can’t run the ball well, and you’re not a good throwing team, you don’t have a whole lot to fall back on. Such is the sad case with Miami. WR Chris Chambers and TE Randy McMichael are good receivers, but there’s no one to get them the ball. Morale and confidence are two words you don’t hear much around Miami these days. The Titans lost pass rushing star Jevon Kearse, but had the fifth-best run defense last season. Even without Kearse, the Titans’ defensive line should control a Miami offensive line that couldn’t open a hole during preseason that an ant could fit through. The Titans offense, on the other hand, was sharp during preseason. Steve McNair looked in mid-season form, which is saying a lot since McNair was co-MVP last year. Tennessee’s offensive line also was playing well, and new tailback Chris Brown is an upgrade from over-the-hill plodder Eddie George. Brown gives the Titans an outside threat, something George hasn’t provided the past couple of years. The Dolphins lost their home mystique last year, covering just one of eight games at Pro Player Stadium. Their defense is weaker minus traded sack leader Adewale Ogunleye. LB Zach Thomas is trying to bounce back from injury, and the new enforcement of the chuck rule hurts Miami’s more than other teams because its cornerbacks play physical. TENNESSEE 19-3.

****BEST BET
PENN STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE* by 14

Those that try to make the case that Joe Paterno has stayed a bit too long in Happy Valley might be right to a degree, but only to a degree. Yes, there have been some losing seasons for the Nittany Lions in this recent stretch, but at the same time he also turned out two teams in the past five seasons that were just a few bounces of the ball from being National Championship contenders. While this year’s team is not going to reach back to that level, they are among the nation’s most improved sides. Incentive is easy to come by here after an embarrassing 27-14 home loss to these Eagles to open last season, a game in which they trailed 21-0 at halftime and were pelted by boos from their own fans. It was a much different story in the opening rout of Akron, with Galen Hall’s offensive designs getting the best out of the multi-talented players available. Between Zack Mills, Michael Robinson and Austin Scott he has an explosive offense backfield to work with, and that is a comfort that the limited Eagles do not have. The B.C. offense struggled mightily against Ball State on the road and needed a kickoff return for a TD to break that game open, and with key cogs RB LV Whitworth, OT Jeremy Trueblood and WR Larry Lester all hobbled, they lack the tools to challenge a defense that just shackled Charlie Frye. If Whitworth can not go here it means too much falls on the shoulders of QB Paul Peterson and a young OL that needs time to develop. Even if he does go, the Lions get their revenge anyway. PENN STATE 31-17.

***BEST BET
TEXAS over ARKANSAS* by 24

Mack Brown has had some dark moments since taking over the head job in Austin. But in some ways last year’s 38-28 home loss to Arkansas might have bothered him more than any other – his Longhorns were simply man-handled at the line of scrimmage, getting out-rushed 265-62 in that one-sided defeat. A team with the Texas level of talent is never supposed to get out-rushed by 200+ yards at home, and that told Brown that it was time for a change of tactics. So away went Carl Reese and his defensive schemes, and in came Gregg Robinson, to install a more aggressive “stop the run first” dynamic on that side of the ball. That defense accounted itself well in dominating North Texas last week (allowed four first downs and 130 yards, and held Patrick Cobbs to Minus yards rushing), and now is ready to redeem itself against the team that dealt them such a physical beating LY. Of course, it is the same team in name and uniform color only. The Razorbacks return only QB Matt Jones from that starting lineup, and while the raw talent was good enough for them to coast past New Mexico State, the cohesion is certainly not there for them to step up against this class. The picture is also bleak for the home team on the other side of the ball, with a young (only one senior starter on the whole defensive unit right now) and under-sized defensive line no match for the best Texas ground attack of the Brown era. Payback time for a visitor that not only wants to win, but wants to win big. TEXAS 37-13.

**savage1** · 09-07-2004, 12:35 PM

Sports Guru-I appreciate your posting the newsletter plays, and even more so since you have color coded the key plays to make them even easier to read.

**Ldawg** · 09-07-2004, 02:00 PM

wayne...

SERVICE PLAYS ARE GOOD READS... ( not to be overly anal ) but ,isn't THIS similar to the BIG FLAP over SP's post/plays .

Don't these post belong in Sports Services ?

Apparently I'm missing the distinction here ...

( No offense intended here Sports G , know u went to a lot of pains) THANKS

===========================================

QUOTE :

2004 Football Newsletters (week #2)
OK GUYS IN AN EFFORT TO PROMOTE THIS SERVICE AND GIVE SOMETHING BACK I WILL POSTING THE NEWSLETTER PLAYS FOR YOU ALL TO ENJOY.

SEE THE BILLBOARD SECTION AND EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE A FREE WEEK OF SERVICE! [email protected]

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UPON FURTHER REVIEW
------------------------------

I see where this was addressed ......yesterday !!
Thanks wayne---------------------------------------

**bigjimt** · 09-07-2004, 05:32 PM

Will you be posting the Gold Sheet and Gold Sheet Extra?

**coburg** · 09-07-2004, 06:25 PM

Big jimt,
Have you had success with those two sheets?I did well this past weekend!I appreciate anyone who posts those 2 sheets!!!!!

**bigjimt** · 09-07-2004, 07:15 PM

Some call the Gold Sheet the Sports Handicappers weekly bible.

I have found great info in it (especially on the small - mid major NCAA teams) over the years.

Hopefully it will become a weekly staple here on this board.

**Hoosier Daddy** · 09-07-2004, 07:40 PM

I'm confused....in the first post for Pointwise, it says "analysis of top rated selections" and goes over the Alabama and Wake Forest Games that are in Red. But they are listed as 1*s. Are 1*'s their highest rated selection? Thanks for the clarification....

**rxpert** · 09-07-2004, 07:53 PM

be careful

the info is greater than the picks. gold sheet & extra did ok this week, BUT confidential kickoff (CKO), which costs more , was 0-5.
you'll probaly see the 1st 2 places touted & not a mention for CKO.
btw, goldsheet & powersweep have the most info, just avg. picks, like you & me.

**Sports Guru** · 09-07-2004, 07:55 PM

2004 FOOTBALL NEWSLETTERS (WEEK #1 RESULTS)

ALOT OF YOU HAVE ASKED FOR SOME GUIDANCE IN UTILIZING THE NEWSLETTERS. FOR THOSE QUESTIONS I WILL TRY TO SYNTHESIZE A QUALITY RESPONSE SO I HOPE THIS HELPS. I USE THE NEWSLETTERS AS AN INFORMATIONAL SOURCE. SPECIFICALLY I LIKE TO SEE FOR ARGUMENTS FOR AN AGAINST SOME OF MY SELECTIONS. SOME OF YOU WILL USE THE NEWSLETTERS FOR THEIR SELECTIONS...AND AS YOU CAN SEE THAT CAN BE A VERY PROFITABLE VENTURE ESPECIALLY THIS WEEK.

THE FOLLOWING IS HOW I RANT EACH OF THE FOOTBALL NEWSLETTERS YOU WILL BE RECEIVING IN THIS PACKAGE (IN TERMS OF QUALITY OF SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS). KEEP IN MIND THIS IS OPEN TO ARGUMENT BUT HAVING THE LUXERY OF USING THEM THE LAST 4 YEARS I BELIEVE I AM AUTHORATIVE ON THIS TOPIC. FIRST HERE IS HOW THE NEWSLETTERS YOU RECEIVED PERFORMED THIS WEEK.

1. WINNINGPOINTS FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER 5 WINS; 1 LOSS (83.3%)
2. THE STEAM SHEET 4 WINS; 1 LOSS (80%)
3. THE RED SHEET 4 WINS; 2 LOSSES (66%)
4. THE SPORTS REPORTER MID-WEEK ALERT 2 WINS; 1 LOSS (66%)
5. POINTWISE COLLEGIATE PROHPECY 5 WINS; 3 LOSSES (62.5%)
6. THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA 3 WINS; 2 LOSSES (60%)
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7. THE SPORTS REPORTER 5 WINS; 5 LOSSES (50%)
8. NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP 2 WINS; 3 LOSSES (40%)
9. THE GOLD SHEET 1 WIN; 2 LOSSES (33%)
10. CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF 0 WINS; 5 LOSSES (0%)

NOW TO THE SUM AND SUBSTANCE OF THIS EMAIL. THE FOLLWOING IS HOW I RATE EACH SHEET IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE. I HOPE THIS HELPS ALL OF YOU!

1. THE GOLD SHEET LATE UPDATE $10 (GIVES NO PLAYS)
In my opinion this is the most valuable piece of information you will have as a weapon at your disposal. This newsletter is for serious handicappers who are ready to take full advantage knowing the latest information including key player changes, major injuries, coaches' gameplans and strategies, team morale and probable intensity, reasons for sudden line moves during the week, and potential weather problems. Also the gold sheet handicappers point out situations worth noting before you make any decisions.

2. THE STEAM SHEET $10
For those of you who will be playing selections from the Newsletters look no further the the Steam Sheet. As many of you know this newsletters is put out by Tom Scott a 26 year veteran of professional handicapping, who has been a consistent winner. In the 26 football seasons, he has made a profit for his clients 23 times. You don't get any more consistent than that. This sheet has consistently been over 60% in winners and only offers client 4-5 plays per week.

3. THE SPORTS REPORTER MID-WEEK ALERT $10
This is the late report by sports reporter released every Friday prior the the weekend games. This newsletter has produced consistent winners on a weekly basis. Of course you will also get in-depth analysis on all of the selected games by the Sports Reporter Staff.

4. CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF BY GOLD SHEET $15
DO NOT LET THEIR DISMAL 0-5 START SWAY YOU AWAY FROM THIS MONSTER. The Gold Sheet handicapping staff decides on the FIVE TOP PLAYS off the early line based on information from their national network of scouts looking at each game on the board. With in-depth analysis, the reasons why these teams have been selected are thoroughly defined. Last year CKO swept the sheet on 3 different occassions while also going 4-1 on four other occassion. To be quite hoest I have never observed anything close to an 0-5 last year. It should also be noted that this selections are often the ones released as their Saturday service selections.

5. THE RED SHEET FROM POINTWISE $10
Unfortunately for use this newsletter only runs 14 weeks. However this newsletter also produceds consistent winners from the folks at Pointwise. This newsletter is released each Tuesday night. One one point this sheet used to be the number one late week premium service in the land, but has since lost a little steam. Of note, these plays wound up the '03 Season on a 9-1 Run!

6. THE GOLD SHEET $7
Ahhh yes...still considered the best by its loyal fans. But some asked now...what happened to the Gold Sheet? Its' still a very valuable resource for those looking for tons of information but they are very shaky on their plays. I like the fact they pay particular attention to injuries and other intanglible that the other sheets fail to mention. So I always use this as a very nice resource for "information but nothing less." I would not recommend just playing these selections.

7. PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWRANCE $8
The only reason this sheet is low on my list is because I'm not a big fan of trends. However, i cannot argue with his success. Last year He went on an unbelievable run on his top rated 5* selections. He was close to 80% on his top rated selections. All in all a high quality newsletter but not the greatest information sheet. Gives some really wacky trends which are fun to read.

8. NORTHCOASTS POWERSWEEP $7
WOW...powersweep so low on my pecking order. Well there is a reason for that. Northcoast has really went to shit. I think it all happened when Phile Steele affiliated himself with sportsbooks so now makes a profit from our losses. However, he still needs a following and he keeps it with one selection in this Newsletter which is UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK. Very solid record on this selection. Phil used to be considered that master of College football, but strangly hes has perfomed better the last two seaosns in the NFL. I said performed "bettor" but he still sucks! The only reason I rated this where I do, is because of the excellent matchup analysis dedicated to each weeks games.

9. WINNINGPOINTS $7
For some reason I personally love this newsletter! I think its because of the substantial analysis they provide to support their top rated selections, which consistently perform at a very nice winning percentage. Well lets put it this way, they have been in business for 34 years and are located in NYC, home to the tougest critics. In my opinion its a very nice prodcut, but pay little attention to their "total selections" and "recommended plays."

10. THE SPORTS REPORTER $8
Well I like this sheet for the same reason I like Winningpoints. One of the nicer features of this newsletter is that "most" of their newsletter selections are the very same plays on their 900# service. infact every selection but one this week was a "service" play. Thier only problem is they are consistently "even steven" so they will not lose you much money if you follow them, but you will also not win alot.

11. POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY $6
Well it comes out on Monday which is nice and helps us get an early jump on our games. Many people use this sheet and this sheet only as it does have a tremendous amount of imformation contained in it if you can read the small font they use. NOTE: this sheet is very streaky in its sucess against the spread. I tracked them last year and they went on unbelievable runs, unfortunaly on both sides. I a two week span this newsletter managed to go 16-3; but the following two weeks it went 4-11; then about even. Catch my drift here.

12. THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA $10
Ummm hmmmm.....Ahhhhh shit i don't have much to say about this one. Considered to be the perfect partner for our weekly Gold Sheet and source of the much-discussed Technical Plays of the Week! Well if you like tends again you will like this sheet, but is totally a hit or miss proposition if you follow their plays. Twice last year they were 5-0, 3 times 0-5, and most of the time 3-2 or 2-3. I pretty much take a glance at it. I purchased the sheet as many out there are trends players or bettors, so its not much use to a vlaue bettor like me.

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LEE STERLING & TOM STRYKER'S PRE-GAME REPORT
This is new to the package and I do not know much about this one other then it is suppose to have unbelievable games analysis. It will also give 2-4 rated selections again with indepth analysis. You will learn with me as the its quality of performance.

WELL I HOPE THIS HELPS EVERYBODY. AS ALWAYS IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS PLEASE ADVISE. THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR TIME.

CHECK BACK IN ABOUT 45 MINUTES FOR THE NEXT BATCH OF NEWSLETTERS!

**Sports Guru** · 09-07-2004, 08:07 PM

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
11* UTAH STATE over Idaho
10* OHIO over Pittsburgh
10* MIDDLE TENN. STATE over Akron
10* SYRACUSE over Buffalo
10* OAKLAND 30 - *Pittsburgh 24

ANALYSIS
PREFERENCES
11 *UTAH STATE over Idaho
Late Score Forecast:
*UTAH STATE 38 - Idaho 13
We always counsel not to overreact to the results of one game, especially a season-opener. But must have some reaction (horror? pity?) to Idaho being laid bare last week, 65-7, at the hands of its rival Boise State. Vandals were outgained 572 to 212 and scored their only TD on a 71-yard run with just 1:20 left in the game. Rookie HC Holt (former USC LB coach) clearly has his work cut out with Idaho squad that lacks experience (only 8 starters return) & depth just about everywhere. Utah State much further along in HC Dennehy’s 5th season. Sr. QB Travis Cox started all 12 games LY. Cox kept Aggies mostly competitive in opener at Alabama (USU trailed by only 17 after 3 Qs) with a pair of TDP to his speedy new true frosh weapons, RB Chris Forbes & WR Kevin Robinson (from Florida & California, respectively). Aggies, who’ve developed a mean streak at Logan (last 3 wins there by 29 ppg!), shouldn’t need much
more than that emerging triumvirate to get comfy win.

10 OHIO over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
OHIO 19 - *Pittsburgh 24
MAC scouts consider Ohio an improving side now that Bobcats have scrapped their landlocked former option attack. We concur. OU hadn’t averaged even a 100 ypg passing in a season for a decade before QB Hawk led offense to 154 ypg thru the air LY. And sr. Hawk & the Bobcats poised to take another step forward in 2004. Ohio struck near perfect balance (230 YR, 229 YP) in 42-14 opening win over VMI last week. Hawk threw 3 TDP, while RBs sr. Roush & RS frosh McRae each had 100+ YR. Tough for transitioning Pittsburgh attack to distance itself in first game without departed o.c. Brookhart and stars Rutherford & Fitzgerald. Those losses being compounded by further attrition (top returning WR Brockenbrough injured & top RB Jawan Walker ineligible), while Panther soph QB Palko making his first start. Pitt HC Harris 5-12 as chalk; 1-6 laying DDs L2Ys! Take.

10 MIDDLE TENN. STATE over *Akron
Late Score Forecast:
MIDDLE TENN. STATE 27 - *Akron 23
CKO scouts somewhat surprised Akron is laying a full TD to an athletic, well-coached, hungry Middle Tennessee State squad eager to start season with a win after its “paycheck” game at Florida was postponed (until Oct.) due to Hurricane Frances. Look for Blue Raiders competent QBs Harris and/or Marks (still competing) & topflight corps of WRs—featuring acrobatic 5-9 Wright (73 catches, school record 9 TDs LY) & 5-7, 185 juco Baker (nicknamed “The Touchdown Maker”)—to fully exploit a totally rebuilt Zip 2ndary lacking much cohesiveness. And MTS able toestablish run right away vs. still-soft Akron front 7 (4.7 ypc LY) that gave up a whopping 342 YR in 48-10 slaughter at Penn State. Zips dynamic 6-4 sr. QB Frye still developing rapport with a new group of wideouts, and doubt mediocre RBs (just 72 YR vs. Nittany Lions) get untracked vs. a solid, deep Blue Raider front 7 that HC McCollum boasts is his best group ever! And this road trip like walk in the park for road-tested MTS, whichtraveled to Georgia, Clemson and Missouri in early nonconference tilts LY (covered 2 of those). Akron only 1-6 as home chalk last 3+ seasons.

10 SYRACUSE over *Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
SYRACUSE 42 - *Buffalo 16
After being humiliated 51-0 on national TV by sr. QB Orton and the high-tech passing of Purdue, Syracuse HC Paul Pasqualoni in desperate need of a victory, especially here in his home state. And Pasqualoni’s now under-fire defense will be desperate to redeem itself. Fortunately, it can gang up against the run against a hard-trying Buffalo team that has only 7 TDP in its last 12 games against Div. I-A competition. Moreover, Orange A-A RB Rhodes (1347 YR & 20 TDR LY) will get going against the undersized Bull front seven, taking loads of pressure off the green, but quick, Syracuse QBs. And, with the pressure mounting on Pasqualoni, expect little mercy vs. Buffalo, which lost by scores of 38-15 to Colgate & 38-7 to Connecticut at home LY, and 63-7 the last time it played Syracuse (four years ago, on the road). Scouts report Orange supporters, after the drive west, likely to outnumber the Bulls fans.

10 OAKLAND over *Pittsburgh
[b]Late Score Forecast:
OAKLAND 30 - *Pittsburgh 24
(Sunday, Sept. 12)
CKO insiders report Oakland team is much more motivated to excel in ‘04 under highly-respected Norv Turer than it was under inflexible, unapproachable, and generally disliked Bill Callahan. And more harmonious, revenge-minded Raiders itching for rematch, since many disgruntled players lacked passion and focus when they lost at Pittsburgh 27-7 latter part of disastrous ‘03. In that contest, shaky Steeler 2ndary not truly tested by Oakland’s limited QB Rick Mirer, who was starting due to injury to Rich Gannon. This time, look for a healthy, quicker Gannon (lost 10 lbs. during offseason), speedy stable of WRs, and a more vertical attack to do lots of business. Pittsburgh going with a more run-oriented attack this season, but that won’t be too effective vs. Raiders fortified DL (added DT Sapp & run-stuffer NTWashington), placing more pressure on erratic QB Maddox, who has thrown a whopping 33 ints. last 2 years. Oakland’s talented, veteran 2ndary is licking its chops! Steelers just 6-11 as home chalk last 2 yrs.

TOTALS: UNDER (35) in Jacksonville-Buffalo game—With these two defenses, must consider the prospect of very few TDs, especially since Bills went “under” every home game LY...OVER (42) in Cincinnati-New York Jets game—Jets going to faster-paced offense; Carson Palmer and his “big gun” will go down firing (maybe with a few damaging interceptions).

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): KANSAS (-2½) vs. Toledo—Holes in Toledo defense might be too much for QB Gradkowski to overcome on the road...UTAH (-12) at Arizona—Few teams in opening week showed as good of a quickness/power combo as Utes; few QBs were as accurate than Alex Smith; few offenses as versatile as Urban Meyer’s...FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+8) at North Texas—FAU has shown it can play with Mean Green; only negatives are the Owls’ travel (at Hawaii last week) and the humiliation factor for North Texas (blown out 65-0 in Austin)...ST. LOUIS (-11½) vs. Arizona— If the refs call the no-contact rule the same as they did in the preseason, Rams’ WRs should have a huge advantage...SAN DIEGO (+5) at Houston—Charger RB Tomlinson & QB Brees are both natives of Texas; would temper enthusiasm if Marty decides to go with rookie QB Rivers from the get-go.

**Sports Guru** · 09-07-2004, 08:34 PM

THE GOLD SHEET TECHNICAL REPORT

SELECTIONS ARE IN BOLD PRINT!

VIRGINIA TECH
After facing top-ranked Southern Cal in its opener, Virginia Tech will get a chance to take out some frustration Saturday afternoon at Lane Stadium against outmanned Western Michigan. HC Frank Beamer’s Hokies, who throttled the Broncos by near-identical scores (30-0 & 31-0) in ’01 & ’02 meetings, have been very good value lately vs. non-conference opposition at Blacksburg, covering their last nine chances. Overall at home, VT has covered 6 of its last 7 as host, and covered 4 of 5 laying double digits at home a year ago. Meanwhile, WMU has hardly been an ornery underdog the past few seasons, standing a poor 3-10 vs. the number as the “short” since ’02, and a mere 4-13 getting points since ’01.

SMU
The latest installment of the long-running Metroplex rivalry takes place Saturday night at Fort Worth when SMU invades to face TCU at Amon Carter Stadium. And the substantial pointspread hurdle could be a bit much for the Horned Frogs to overcome again. For the past two seasons, the Mustangs, a significant underdog on each occasion, covered handily vs. their local rival. Indeed, covering any number as chalk has been a chore for recentlyovervalued TCU, which has hardly proved worth the pointspread premium it’s been receiving lately, standing just 3-10-1 vs. the number its last 14 as favorite. The Frogs have also dropped 9 of their last 11 spread decisions as a doubledigit favorite. Fired-up SMU qualifies as a featured play this week in the Rivalry Underdog system as well.

TEXAS TECH
Texas Tech has held the upper hand in recent years in its meetings vs. regional rival New Mexico. The Red Raiders have won by double-digit margins the past four seasons vs. the Lobos and haven’t dropped a pointspread decision in the process. They also haven’t lost vs. the number the last six games in this series dating to 1994, and look to succeed again in Saturday night’s faceoff at Albuquerque. Overall, Tech has offered some pretty good value as a favorite the past few years for HC Mike Leach, standing 12-5 vs. the number as chalk since ’02.

CALIFORNIA
Is Cal a juggernaut? Perhaps so, if recent results are any indication, which is bad news for visiting New Mexico State on Saturday afternoon at Berkeley. Note that the Golden Bears stand a solid 14-6-2 vs. the number their last 22 games on the board (17-8-2 since ’02) for HC Jeff Tedford, qualifying themselves as a featured play in the College Coach & Pointspread system this week. As for the Aggies, it’s been one disappointment after another on the road the past few seasons, as they’ve dropped 12 of their last 17 spread decisions as a visitor.

DENVER
It’s opening week, which has been a good omen for the Denver Broncos the past few years. HC Mike Shanahan’s bunch has covered its last four lidlifters and looks to make it five straight when hosting Kansas City Sunday night at Invesco Field. Since Shanahan arrived in Denver as coach in ’95, the Broncos have covered 7 of 9 openers, and well as 7 of 9 home openers. They’ve also covered their last three chances at home against the AFC West rival Chiefs. And, upon further inspection, one discovers that Shanahan’s bunch has excelled the past few years when hosting division foes, winning and covering 9 of 10 vs. those sorts at Invesco since its opening in 2001.

**drugstuntman** · 09-07-2004, 09:16 PM

thanks....great info here !

**Sports Guru** · 09-07-2004, 09:20 PM

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:

BEST BETS
*CLEVELAND over BALTIMORE by 10
ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO* by 15

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*WASHINGTON over TAMPA BAY by 7
*NEW ORLEANS over SEATTLE by 7
UNDER 48, KANSAS CITY vs. *DENVER
*CAROLINA over GREEN BAY by 11

SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:

SUPER BEST BET
*CINCINNATI over MIAMI-OH by 21

BEST BETS
COLORADO over *WASHINGTON STATE by 9 (at Seattle)
PENN STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 10
*ALABAMA over MISSISSIPPI by 20

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*ILLINOIS over UCLA by 4
*CONNECTICUT over DUKE by 6
*NORTHWESTERN over ARIZONA ST. by 10
*OREGON over INDIANA by 12
*TCU over SMU by 14
TEXAS TECH over *NEW MEXICO by 13

ANALYSIS

BEST BET
*CLEVELAND over BALTIMORE by 10
Cleveland is the home dog with double-revenge and an entire off-season to prepare for a big intradivision re-match. The Browns have more revenge hidden behind the two lop-sided losses to Baltimore in 2003, because their new starting quarterback, Jeff Garcia, lost 44-6 to the Ravens late last season as a member of the 49ers, a game Garcia claims turned freaky in a hurry due to tipped balls. So, it’s put up or shut up for him.With Garcia behind center, the Browns gain an experienced,creative leader that has not existed for them at the position since they were re-born from scratch in 1999. The more accomplished quarterback is taking points. The Browns might even have the better defense when all is said and done this season, partly because they beefed up the DL depth in the off-season, partly because the entire unit figures to make strides in the second season under Dave Campo, partly because LB Warrick Holdman strengthens the linebacking unit, and partly because the Cleveland offensive line isn’t totally decimated by injuries going into the season like it was last year, ruining their first- and second-down production, making it harder for their lousy ex-QBs to succeed on third down, and preventing the defense from ever getting a rest. It’s the NFL, and beating the Browns three times in a row by jamming Jamal Lewis down their throats is not supposed to happen. But a drastic difference in approach is unlikely, since Baltimore QB Kyle Boller has only six NFL starts under his belt, vs. 71 for Garcia. CLEVELAND, 19-9.

BEST BET
ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO* by 15
Inside job! Falcons’ new head coach Jim Mora, Jr. was the 49ers’defensive coordinator for the last five seasons, and his offensive coordinator, Greg Knapp, had been involved as either a San Francisco offensive assistant or coordinator for the last nine seasons. Although the 49ers have turned over the roster more than the average team in the off-season, nobody on the planet knows the strengths and weaknesses of the San Francisco personnel, and coaches, better than these two guys who now call the shots for the Falcons. Each of them knows full well that Erickson wants to open up the 49ers’ offense with players who have not had featured roles within the system for very long. New starting QB Tim Rattay missed Spring practice with a badly pulled groin, didn’t make his pre-season debut until Game 3, and is supported in the backfield by a potential fumbler, Kevan Barlow, who himself is no longer supported by the presence of running mate Garrison Hearst. Asking these guys to carry the burden of offensive responsibilities in a more finesse-oriented arrangement is asking for trouble. San Francisco had an NFC best +12 Turnover Ratio last season (with the synergy between Mora’s defense and Knapp’s offense), yet still finished sub.-500. They are now on track to make more turnovers, which normally doesn’t translate to more wins. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s 1-2 punch of Mr. Inside T.J. Duckett,and Mr. Outside Warrick Dunn, can stay fresh and tire out the 49ers’ defense, which then must find the energy to chase Michael Vick around the field. ATLANTA, 31-16.

SUPER BEST BET
*CINCINNATI over MIAMI-OH by 21
New Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio has a good preparation pal in the team’s new defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, who was most recently Miami-OH’s defensive coordinator. Perhaps being armed with Narduzzi’s inside knowledge of this particular opponent is what mboldened Dantonio to add some spice to the in-state rivalry by publicly knocking Miami-OH for opening the season with Division 1-AA Indiana State. He’s daring Miami-OH to show them something, confident that Narduzzi can put his defensive personnel in place to counter nearly everything in the Miami-OH playbook now that the visitors’ plays are being executed by players other than ex-starting QB Ben Roethlisberger and some of the most massive departed senior offensive linemen in America. That confidence can prompt Dantonio to give the green light to his own QB, senior stat-seeker Gino Guidugli, who will find this secondary quite easy to riddle. Cincinnati, 41-20.

BEST BET
COLORADO over *WASHINGTON STATE by 9 (at Seattle)
Colorado has some anger brewing inside from last year’s 47-26 loss to Washington State, and some real positive energy following last week’s wild/wacky 27-24 non-cover win vs. archrival Colorado State. Colorado knows it’s not likely to get burned by big passing plays as was the case against Wazzu last year (74- and 77-yard TD pass plays). Gotta love that CU has the better quarterback, Joel Klatt, who completed all but two aerials attempts in 15 tries last week. Observing WSU QB Josh Swogger last Friday night reveals a kid who doesn’t always feel the pocketcollapsing around him. Also, quality Klatt is not Cole McCamey, the sub-par first-time starting New Mexico QB that WSU picked to death. Colorado, 30-21.

BEST BET
PENN STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 10
Last season’s Happy Valley, PA audience paid to see Bizarro Theatre, an offbeat, offensive dark comedy produced by Penn State. Immediately down 7-0, a three-and-out non-drive that started on their own 19 caused Penn State to hand BC great starting field position for the Eagles’ second drive, also ending in a TD. Then, a Zack Mills INT on his own one-yard-line cued the Fat Lady, who launched into the grotesque, “21-0 First Quarter Aria” as the curtain came down crashing on the head of a thrashing, spasming Joe Pa. The Nittanys moved the ball well enough during a comeback attempt that was doomed by BC’s expertise at chewing the clock. But a 10-play, 53-yard drive ended in a fumble, as did a 6-play 55-yard drive, and PSU also missed a field goal after taking possession at the BC 47. Facts are that the BC offense was not “extended” against this opponent a year ago, and their new QB has no track record in contentious games as a favorite against Big Ten athletes like this unit, which played well last year and can easily improve with the maturity. Penn State, 23-13.

**sigster1** · 09-08-2004, 05:06 AM

Gold Sheet

I can get Gold Sheet off of my Bloomberg terminal (GSHT [GO]). I concur with the other comments here and urge newbies to not get carried away with newsletter selections/reasoning, but if helpful I will post.

Gold Sheet Key releases

COLLEGE DAY-BY-DAY FORECAST

VIRGINIA TECH by 36 over Western Michigan
OKLAHOMA STATE by 32 over Tulsa
GEORGIA TECH by 3 over Clemson

NFL DAY-BY-DAY FORECAST

N.Y. JETS by 15 over Cincinnati
SAN FRANCISCO by 7 over Atlanta
OVER 45 total points in the Seattle-New Orleans game

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

*CAROLINA 27 - Green Bay 23

Announcement

2004 Football Newsletters (week #2)

2004 Football Newsletters (week #2)

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