Blackbeard's Report

[Blackbeard]

The Sports Network

DATE & TIME: Sunday, September 5th, 3:30 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium (42,000) -- Louisville, Kentucky. Television: ESPN. Home Record: Kentucky 0-0, Louisville 0-0. Away Record: Kentucky 0-0, Louisville 0-0. Neutral Record: Kentucky 0-0, Louisville 0-0. Conference Record: Kentucky 0-0, Louisville 0-0. Series Record: Kentucky leads, 10-6.

GAME NOTES: The Louisville Cardinals are set to play host to the Kentucky Wildcats in an intrastate battle for the Governor?s Cup this weekend. One look at Kentucky's 4-8 record in 2003 is proof that the season was a bust. The squad actually entered the campaign with the high hopes of contending for the SEC title, but losses in four of the first six contests crushed those aspirations. Rich Brooks is in his second year as head coach of the squad, and considering that the Wildcats play in what may be the nation's top conference, expectations are not high in Lexington. There were many questions for Louisville heading into last season, but they were all answered positively with the team's 9-4 overall record and 5-3 mark in conference play. The team did an outstanding job in Bobby Petrino's first year at the helm, including a GMAC Bowl appearance against Miami-Ohio. With a wealth of experience back in place, the Cardinals have a chance to post double figures in the win column. Kentucky holds a 10-6 lead in the all-time series with Louisville, but the Cardinals posted a 40-24 victory over the Wildcats last season in Lexington.

Beefy Jared Lorenzen entered last season as the much talked about quarterback of Kentucky, and Shane Boyd played only sparingly. Now a senior, the little- used Boyd has only one year to prove his worth under center. He attempted only 43 passes as a junior with little success, and there are plenty of doubters both in Lexington and across the nation. Still, a victory over Louisville will silence many of the critics, at least for one week. Arliss Beach figures to be the team's feature tailback, and while he showed plenty of power last season with eight scores on only 103 carries, he averaged well below four yards a pop. Among the receivers, Glenn Holt and Keenan Barton figure to start this opener, but there is an overall lack of proven performers. The offensive line brings back only two starters and will certainly be tested by the Louisville offensive front.

The Kentucky defensive line features a true star in Vincent "Sweet Pea" Burns, as he is coming off a strong junior season in which he posted 18 TFLs. Although he is a bit undersized, Burns has a great motor and should command two blockers on many occasions Saturday if he is able to play through a knee injury that has slowed him considerably in recent weeks. Burns will get plenty of help from his teammates, as nine of the 11 starters from last year are back in place. Ellery Moore and Lamar Mills are two strong performers up front that should be able to take some pressure off Burns, while the linebacking group is led by Chad Anderson, who moved inside last season and led the squad in tackles with more than 11 per contest. Anderson will miss the presence of fellow 'backer Dustin Williams, as he will likely miss the game due to a hamstring injury. Unlike in years past, the secondary was actually expected to be an area of strength for the defense. Unfortunately, Bo Smith figures to miss the season with a head injury. Considering that loss, Earven Flowers will need to be extremely impressive in leading the unit.

Stefan LeFors threw for 3,145 yards with a .613 completion percentage last season for a Louisville team that ranked 15th nationally in scoring (34.6 ppg). He was also instrumental in the ground game with 405 rushing yards and three scores and is expected to be outstanding under center once again. As a whole, the Cardinals racked up an impressive 228.2 rushing ypg in 2003 with a trio of tailbacks, Lionel Gates, Eric Shelton and Michael Bush, all doing an exceptional job. All three tailbacks return to the fold this season, giving the Cards the most dangerous backfield in C-USA. Gates, a strong runner with good speed, highlighted the group with a team-best 817 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Shelton, a power back, missed three games last season but still managed 790 yards and 10 scores. As for Bush, he is the most versatile of the bunch having lined up at quarterback, wide receiver and running back last season. He finished with 503 rushing yards, six touchdowns and an impressive 6.2 yards per carry average. Louisville is not only stacked at the tailback spot, but also at wide receiver. Returning is All-American candidate J.R. Russell, who recorded 75 catches, for a school-record 1,213 yards and eight touchdowns last year. The line is experienced as well, resulting in Louisville perhaps becoming a top-10 offense nationally this season.

While Louisville was explosive offensively a year ago, the defensive unit allowed 27.8 ppg and ranked 93rd in total defense (428.6 ypg). Eight starters are back, and the hope is that experience will improve those figures. The strength of the group comes up front where three starter return. Defensive end Marcus Jones, who led the team with 10 sacks and 17 TFLs last season, earned Second Team All-conference honors. The linebacking corps is highlighted by Robert McCune, as he earned All-C-USA honors in '03 with a career-high 143 tackles. As for the secondary, it figures to get consistently strong play from safety Kerry Rhodes. Rhodes is a solid free safety who recorded a career-high 82 tackles in his first season as a starter last year.

Even if Kentucky was completely healthy, Louisville would clearly be the pick in this contest. Considering that the Wildcats are beat up defensively, the high-powered Cardinal offense should have a banner day.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Louisville 43, Kentucky 17

[Blackbeard]

The Sports Network

DATE & TIME: Sunday, September 5th, 5:30 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Husky Stadium (72,500) -- Seattle, Washington. Television: Fox Sports Net. Home Record: Fresno St. 0-0, Washington 0-0. Away Record: Fresno St. 0-0, Washington 0-0. Neutral Record: Fresno St. 0-0, Washington 0-0. Conference Record: Fresno St. 0-0, Washington 0-0. Series Record: Washington leads, 1-0.

GAME NOTES: Fresno State has earned the reputation of being willing to play even the toughest of non-conference teams, but that philosophy did not pay off for head coach Pat Hill and his Bulldogs last season. Lopsided losses to Tennessee and Oklahoma early in 2003 contributed to a 3-4 record, but victories in five of the final six outings should give the squad some confidence heading into this new campaign. Fresno State has made five consecutive bowl appearances, and a victory in this opener would certainly be a major step toward extending that streak. Last season began with some controversy for Washington, as offensive coordinator Keith Gilbertson took over for the dismissed Rick Neuheisel right before the start of the season. Gilbertson guided the team to just a 6-6 overall mark and a record of 4-4 in the Pac-10, disappointing considering some lofty preseason expectations. In the only previous meeting between Fresno State and Washington, the Huskies rolled to a 49-14 victory back in 1979.

With five previous starters back along the offensive line for Fresno State, pass protection and run blocking should be strong. Junior quarterback Paul Pinegar, who missed the first five games of 2003 with a torn right pectoral muscle, will be under center in this season opener. In the games that he did play a year ago, Pinegar completed nearly 60 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns. Running back Dwayne Wright (1,038 yards and three touchdowns in 2003) appeared to have the inside track for the number one spot on the depth chart, but Bryson Sumlin (509 yards and a team-high nine scores on the ground) has overtaken him and will be the starter in this opener. Juniors Jermaine Jamison (23 receptions) and Adam Jennings (11 catches) are the most experienced receivers, but they will struggle to fill the void left by Bernard Berrian and Marque Davis, both of whom have moved on.

The Fresno State defense is in good shape with eight starters back in the fold. At the top of the list are linemen Garrett McIntyre and Brian Morris, a junior and senior, respectively. Morris, who is actually coming back for his sixth season after being granted an additional year of eligibility by the NCAA because of a medical hardship, led the team and the league in sacks last year with 10. It was the seventh most in school history and enough to earn him second team All-WAC honors after he sat out both the 2001 and 2002 campaigns with injury. McIntyre, named the Defensive MVP for the Silicon Valley Football Classic, was also a second team All-WAC choice for the Bulldogs last year as he tallied 7.5 sacks and had 12.5 TFLs overall. Strong safety James Sanders led the team in tackles last season with 95 and added a pair of interceptions in being named to the All-WAC first teams. At the cornerback spots are junior Raymond Washington and sophomore Richard Marshall, and both have a lot to prove this year after opponents tagged the Fresno State defense with 22 touchdowns through the air a year ago.

Junior quarterback Casey Paus will start his first game under center for the Huskies in this opener, and although he has the arm strength and physical skills to be a force, he remains a question mark considering that lack of experienced. Paus saw little playing time as a sophomore, passing for 151 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Fortunately for Paus, he will have one of the best receivers in the Pac-10 to throw to in Charles Frederick. The senior standout is ready to make the jump to the next level, and he should easily surpass his 59 catches for 831 yards and five touchdowns from a year ago. He has excellent speed and always finds a way to get open, but a sore ankle may slow him a bit in this tilt. Kenny James is the starter at running back for Washington, coming off a 2003 campaign in which he rushed for 520 yards and two touchdowns in limited action. Don't expect the offense to be as explosive as last season, although Paus could turn out to be a star.

The Huskies return six starters defensively and will certainly help Paus' development with some strong efforts early in the season. Senior cornerback Derrick Johnson is truly the star of this unit, having earned Second-Team Pac-10 honors in 2003. Johnson had 41 tackles and six interceptions as a sophomore, using his outstanding quickness to shut down opposing receivers. Free safety Jimmy Newell has also shown the talent that could make him one of the top safeties in the Pac-10. Newell finished second on the squad with 84 stops last year and also had a knack for finding the ball, pulling in three interceptions. Evan Benjamin is the player to watch among the Huskies' linebackers in this opener. Benjamin is a former safety who hits as hard as anyone in the conference and could very well lead the team in tackles this year. The defensive line is young and inexperienced, but it should still be adequate against the run and in getting to the quarterback.

Washington is 5-0 in home openers since 1989, and although the squad has plenty of questions to answer, a triumph on Sunday is likely. Hill's squad should keep it close, but the Huskies will find a way to pull it out in the end.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Washington 27, Fresno State 23

[THICK 1]

The Big Green Machine's
Football Newsletter

Sunday, September 5


SYRACUSE at PURDUE

Syracuse is 4-11 ATS as a road dog since 1999. The Orangemen, who are only 9-17 overall against the number outside of the Carrier Dome the last five seasons, do have a nice 9-4 spread mark in their last 13 road openers.

Purdue is 24-11-2 ATS as a home favorite under coach Joe Tiller. The Boilermakers, though, have covered only four of their last dozen non-conference tilts.


KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE

Kentucky is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games and the Wildcats have covered five of their last seven non-conference road affairs.

The visitor in this series has covered four of the last five meetings, including Louisville’s 40-24 win last year in Lexington.

The Cardinals have covered just once in their last nine home openers.






HOUSTON at RICE

Houston, which went 7-4-2 ATS in 2003, has won and covered the last two meetings, including a 48-14 win last season. The Cougars are on runs of 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS versus the Owls.

Houston, however, is a sorry 5-20 ATS in its first lined game since 1980.

Rice is 13-7-1 ATS as a dog since 2001. The Owls closed last season on a 5-0-1 spread run.


FRESNO STATE at WASHINGTON

Fresno State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games as a non-conference dog. The Bulldogs have also covered five of their last six openers, and seven of their last eight against Pac-10 teams.

Washington has covered 13 of its last 18 non-conference home games. The Huskies, though, are only 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 as a favorite.






UNLV at TENNESSEE

UNLV has cashed the Vegas ticket just once in its last six games as a non-conference dog. The Rebels have covered three of their last four against SEC teams, including a 31-14 win over Arkansas in the 2000 Las Vegas Bowl.

Tennessee has covered seven of its last nine home openers, but the Vols are a mere 6-13-1 ATS in Knoxville since 2001.