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**wayne1218** · 09-04-2004, 10:52 AM

ESPN INSIDER WRITE UPS

Saturday

Rutgers +6 over Michigan State: Let me say this one time. Greg Schiano is
building something positive at Rutgers. The former Miami defensive coordinator,
now in his fourth season in New Jersey, won five games last season and was in
all of the other six but one. The 44-28 loss at Michigan State last September
was a very close game until late. Quarterback Ryan Hart looked good last year
and will be even better this year with superior targets. The running backs are
very solid, with sophomore Justice Hairston a star on the rise. The defense,
however, will tell the story. It gave up 34 or more seven times last year. It
looks improved this time round, but we'll have to see.
Michigan State should be solid again this year after a big run in the Big Ten
last season, coach John L. Smith's first at East Lansing. The offense, however,
loses Jeff Smoker and has only three returning starters and may take a while to
get rolling. The defense should be fine with five starters back from a
blitz-happy squad. The bottom line here is we think the game means a lot more to
Rutgers than it does to the Spartans, who are probably thinking more about Notre
Dame, two weeks away.
The pick: Rutgers.

Temple +16 over Virginia: Temple hung very tough last year in road losses at
Penn State, Cincinnati and Louisville and at home against Virginia Tech, losing
three games in OT. The Owls have seven starters back on both offense and defense
and have a terrific passing combo in Walter Washington to Mike McGann.
Washington might even be the best quarterback in the Big East. On D, they are
led by all-league LB Rian Wallace and overall could pull a few surprises,
including in its home opener here against Virgina.
The Cavs are ranked in the top 15 by many and have a solid offense with new QB
Marques Hagans replacing the graduated Matt Schaub. Hagans might not throw as
well as Schaub, but he sure can run better. On defense Virginia may have the
nation's best linebacking tandem under Al Groh, who used to coach linebackers
for the New York Jets. Yes, Virginia should win, but they won't have the
incentive Temple does here. Can't see the Cavs taking them seriously until they
get chewed out at halftime.
The pick: Temple.

Navy -7 vs. Duke: This is an intriguing game. Opening up on the road at Navy
seems like a much easier task than opening at Virginia, which the Blue Devils
did last year with a 27-0 whitewashing. Then again who wants to face the Navy
offensive attack, which looks more like Knute Rockne's than anything else. In
Paul Johnson, the Midshipman have one of the best coaches in the country. Add to
that 15 starters returning from a team that went to a bowl. Duke, on the other
hand, improved under Ted Roof, who got the job midseason last year. They have a
good passing attack and should be able to move the ball against Navy. And
finding an opponent they can possibly beat is especially enticing in September,
with the likes of Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, Maryland and Virginia Tech
on the horizon. The game could be tight. Then again Navy might blow them away.
The pick: Pass.

Texas Tech -24 over SMU: Mike Leach is a great offensive mind and oversaw the
country's No. 1 attack last year. B.J. Symons is gone after setting records for
a QB, but Leach will find somebody who fits perfectly into the system to run the
team. There's a lot of starting depth coming back on both sides of the ball,
especially on defense, which could be the bad news, too, as the Red Raiders gave
up 40 or more six times last year.
SMU returns 20 starters from a team that went 0-12. That team averaged 11 points
a game and only reached 20 once. Draw your own conclusion. Texas Tech whacked
the Mustangs in the opener last year 58-10, and there's no reason to expect
something else here.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).

Sunday
Kentucky +9 over Louisville: I know, I know. Louisville is supposed to be loaded
this year. Some polls have them as high as 12th, etc. But that's what they said
last year, and the Cardinals still disappointed despite a nine-win season. Bobby
Petrino can recruit, which is why Clemson wanted him, but can he coach? Kentucky
had three heartbreaking losses last year to Florida, Arkansas (6 OTs) and South
Carolina, which showed their potential. Quarterback Shane Boyd will be an
elusive target both running and throwing for Kentucky, and the Wildcats have
nine defensive starters back. This is just too many points for a backyard
rivalry.
The pick: Kentucky.

Houston -3 over Rice: The Cougars won seven games and went to a bowl last year
with a very improved team for Kevin Briles. QB Kevin Kolb returns and might be
one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. The defense needs to improve, giving
up an average of 51 points in its five losses -- all to bowl teams. How can it
not? It will have to get ready for Ken Hatfield's famed triple-option attack
again, which it held off successfully in last year's opener, 48-10. This one
will be closer, but Houston has too much firepower with Kolb.
The pick: Houston.

Monday
South Florida -1½ over Pittsburgh: The South Florida Bulls won 21 straight home
games before dropping a 13-10 decision to TCU last year. They also lost to UAB
by three at home later in the season, also no disgrace. South Florida isn't
quite as deep as last year, but Pitt lost just about every leader it had,
including Rod Rutherford and Larry Fitzgerald from the offense. It looks like
the Panthers may have picked the wrong spot to open. The crowd and the Bulls
will be frenzied and swarming. This is some home field advantage with the crowd
nearly in your lap. Pittsburgh's only break is the game isn't under the lights,
but it will be on national TV.
The pick: South Florida.

Passing thoughts.....................................

Oklahoma giving nearly five touchdowns seems like a lot, but keep in mind the
Sooners scored 50 or more six of 11 times in the regular season last year, and
scored 34 or more four of the other five. Bowling Green is a terrific MAC team
but is outmatched here. Their only chance is if their good defensive ends can
put pressure on the Sooners' passing game. ... Texas has a habit of clocking the
little guys and choking in the big ones. North Texas is a little guy in this
one. ... Tulsa improved by leaps and bounds last year so don't ask why they're
such a small underdog at Kansas. ... Ohio State probably hasn't forgotten how
its season almost went down the drain last year at Cincinnati, but don't look
for a big blowout as a result. The guess is the Buckeyes still aren't taking
them seriously. ... FSU and Miami adorn our screens Labor Day night. Miami could
be in for a long season if its offense reverts to '03 form, but the Seminoles
haven't shown Oklahoma-type execution in some time now. This rivalry tends to
produce sloppy games, which are a letdown to watch and good to stay away from
when it comes to investing hard-earned capital.
Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last
season.

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