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from surveyor, checkers, & SPARK
THE GOLD SHEET
SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
CINCINNATI Plus over Ohio State
OKLAHOMA by 43 over Bowling Green
FRESNO STATE by 7 over Washington (Sun., Sept. 5)
Analysis of Key Selections
Cincinnati 16 - OHIO STATE 20—Not ready to lay a lot of points in opener with OSU team that’s making numerous changes. New QB Justin Zwick, rebuilt offensive and defensive lines, and new defensive coordinator point to potential slow start by Buckeyes. New Cincy HC Dantonio’s (OSU d.c. LY) unlucky crew lost numerous close games LY. With sr. QB Gino Guidugli surrounded by a veteran cast (16 starters plus P/PK Chet Ervin return), look for Bearcats to give in-state rival a game. (02-Osu -18 23-19...SR: OSU 11-2).
OKLAHOMA 53 - Bowling Green 10 —Tough spot for Motor City Bowl champ BG, which has lost key playmaking QB Josh Harris and must face Oklahoma team eager to erase the sting of consecutive defeats to end last season. Huge QB edge for host, with Heisman-winning Jason White (40 TDP LY), in sixth season, facing soph Omar Jenkins, who had 28 atts. LY. Talent-rich Sooners outscored reg.-season foes in the first H 353-59 (!) LY. Falcs lost 82-37 in two meetings with Miami-O LY; still undersized on “D.” (FIRST MEETING)
Fresno State 27 - WASHINGTON 20 —Pat Hill and FSU live for these dates vs. high-profile foes, evidenced by Bulldogs’ 7-1 spread mark last 8 vs. Pac-10. And fact remains that FSU was probably flat-out better than Washington LY, and might be so again. Befuddled Huskies HC Gilbertson still unsure about QB spot (little-used holdovers Paus & “slash” Stanback), which could be problem vs. what WAC sources say is Hill’s best-ever 2ndary. And expect more dynamism from QB Pinegar after injury-hampered ‘03. No surprise if clutch FSU PK Visintainer proves difference.
(DNP...SR: Washington 1-0)
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THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
IOWA
VANDERBILT
BYU
FRESNO STATE
UNLV
Analysis of Rated Selections
IOWA
Iowa has been a pointspread powerhouse for HC Kirk Ferentz the past few seasons, and there’s no reason to suspect the Hawkeyes can’t keep it going in their Saturday afternoon opener at Kinnick Stadium against visiting Kent State. Iowa couldn’t have done better against the line at Iowa City last year, covering all 7 chances as host, which merely continued a string of success that’s seen the Hawkeyes cover 19 of their last 22 tries at home. Also included in Iowa’s recent pointspread march of destruction is 11 straight ****** as double-digit chalk, nine straight c at Iowa City. And Ferentz’ recent overall success vs. the number (34-13 last 47 on board!) make his Hawkeyes a featured play in the Coach & Pointspread system each week.
VANDERBILT
Believe it or not, Vanderbilt has offered a lot of pointspread value in certain roles the past couple of seasons, and some of those would apply to this week’s opener at Nashville against visiting South Carolina. Since HC Bobby Johnson arrived in 2002, the Commodores are 6-1 vs. the line at Vanderbilt Stadium vs. SEC foes (6-1-1 as home dog that span). Vandy has also covered the past two years in this SEC East series. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have offered little value lately for Lou Holtz, especially as a visitor, where his Gamecocks have covered only 3 of 10 tries the past two seasons. Overall, SC is just 8-15-1 vs. the spread since ’02, and Holtz hasn’t won by more than 6 points his last 16 tries as a visitor.
BYU
It’s opening week, which has been good for BYU backers the past couple of seasons. The Cougars have covered all three of their openers since HC Gary Crowton took over in 2001, and five straight lid-lifters overall, heading into this Saturday night’s clash vs. Notre Dame at Provo. Note that Crowton’s Cougar teams have also covered 5 of their last 7 games getting points. As for the Irish, it’s been a struggle since late in the 2002 campaign, as ND has covered just 5 of its last 17 overall for HC Tyrone Willingham. Those subpar marks extend to recent tries as a favorite (3-6 last nine) and away from South Bend (also 3-6 vs. number last nine).
FRESNO STATE
Fresno State has relished its recent opportunities to play against Pac-10 foes, covering 7 of its last 8 chances in those contests, and gets anotheropportunity in that role Sunday afternoon at Seattle against a recently disappointing Washington. The Bulldogs have also flourished as an underdog lately for HC Pat Hill, covering 11 of 16 tries getting points since ’01, and 17 of 26 since ’99, qualifying FSU as a featured play with Hill in the College Coach as Underdog system this week. Note thatunderdogs are 39-23-2 vs. the spread in all Bulldog games since ’99. As for the Huskies, their recent pointspread woes are quite comprehensive, including a 4-8 spread mark last season for HC Keith Gilbertson (2-5 as chalk), 3-11 last 14 as chalk, and 9-21-1 their last 31 laying points in Seattle.
UNLV
Tennessee has had some pronounced pointspread shortcomings over the past few seasons. The often-overvalued Volunteers stand only 6-13-1 vs. the spread overall (6-11-1 as chalk) since ’01 at Neyland Stadium, and will be hardpressed to improve upon that mark when hosting capable UNLV Sunday night. Tennessee has also failed to cover its last five hosting non-SEC foes, and has dropped 7 of its last 8 pointspread decisions vs. non-conference opposition. Meanwhile, the Rebels are a solid 5-1-1 vs. the number as a double-digit road dog since HC John Robinson took over in ’99.
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SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Michigan State 24 - RUTGERS 23—Sure, oddsmaker on alert after Rutgers went 10-1-1 vs. spread LY. But 9 starters return from an offense that scored nearly twice as many ppg than in 2002. And rah-rah HC Schiano’s recruiting has given Scarlet Knights more size & speed throughout the lineup. MSU star QB Smoker is gone, new No. 1 QB Stanton has nagging knee injury, and top 2 Spartan RBs from LY are now playing “D”!
(03-MICH. ST. 44-Rutgers 28...M.25-12 M.40/134 R.36/M2 M.21/34/2/351 R.14/31/2/266 M.1 R.0)
(03-MICHIGAN STATE -19 44-28...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Virginia 33 - TEMPLE 13—UVa OL is top-notch, and jr. RB Lundy & jr. TE H. Miller are two of nation’s most versatile skill players. New QB Hagans (5-10, 207) isn’t an NFL caliber passer like former triggerman Schaub (6-5, 240). That probably won’t matter against Temple, which is already trying to compensate for major attrition at CB. Buffed Owl QB Walter Washington packs a wallop when he runs; talented Cav LBs will hit back.
(FIRST MEETING)
*WEST VIRGINIA 47 - East Carolina 13—Watered-down Big East has
expectations running high in Morgantown. And insiders say intense HC Rodriguez has regularly been going “Bobby Knight” on his players during preseason. Mounties won’t let up for fear of the week of practice that might follow.
(03-W. Va. 48-E. CAR. 7...W.26-23 W.48/361 E.36/102 E.25/38/2/226 W.11/18/0/194 W.0 E.3)
(03-W. Virginia -9' 48-7 02-W. VIRGINIA -7 37-17...SR: West Virginia 13-2)
CLEMSON 31 - Wake Forest 24—The media had Clemson HC Bowden all but fired after humiliating beating at Winston-Salem LY. But Bowden & Tigers now considered an ACC “sleeper” after strong 2003 stretch drive. NFL-caliber jr. QB Whitehurst (62% LY) rates HUGE edge over Wake counterpart Randolph (HC Grobe
says blue-chip RS frosh QB Mauk will play at least a few series every game). But Deacons OL & RB depth will make host work the full 60 minutes for its revenge.
(03-W. FOR. 45-Clem. 17...C.29-22 W.60/321 C.24/62 C.35/57/1/343 W.5/7/0/79 W.1 C.2)
(03-WFU -1 45-17 02-CLEM. -8' 31-23 01-Clem. -7 21-14...SR: Clemson 53-15-1)
*** Cincinnati 16 - OHIO STATE 20—Not ready to lay a lot of points in opener with OSU team that’s making numerous changes. New QB Justin Zwick, rebuilt offensive and defensive lines, and new defensive coordinator point to potential slow start by Buckeyes. New Cincy HC Dantonio’s (OSU d.c. LY) unlucky crew lost
numerous close games LY. With sr. QB Gino Guidugli surrounded by a veteran cast (16 starters plus P/PK Chet Ervin return), look for Bearcats to give in-state rival a game.
(02-Osu -18 23-19...SR: OSU 11-2)
IOWA 41 - Kent State 6 —Absence of dynamic do-everything Kent QB Joshua Cribbs (suspended for this game) means this one won’t be close. Iowa also has a key offensive contributor suspended, as RB Jermelle Lewis will also sit, but the Hawkeyes
have the depth to compensate. Iowa QB Drew Tate will be making his first start, and the Hawkeye attack is young, but it’s the Iowa defense that’s helped Hawkeyes go 19-3 vs. the number last 22 at home (11-0 laying double digits). DT Babineaux, DE Roth
and LB Hodge will make life miserable for young Flash attack.
(01-IOWA -27 51-0...SR: Iowa 1-0)
MICHIGAN 27 - Miami-Ohio 14—Life without Roethlisberger looked good last week in Miami’s 49-0 tuneup throttling of Indiana St., but things get tougher. Wolverine HC Carr says his defense, which has been favorably compared with the stellar ‘97 unit, must and can carry the team early, as soph QB Gutierrez gains experience. Scouts indicate the Michigan attack will eventually be more versatile than LY, utilizing more movement and deception to maximize effectiveness of arguably the best corps of WRs in college ball. Still, cupboard not bare at Miami, as RedHawk QB Betts was very productive in rainy debut, and Miami-O.’s 14-game win streak won’t end without a fight.
(01-MIC -24' 31-13...SR: Michigan 3-0)
PENN STATE 31 - Akron 19—Penn State and Joe Paterno simply aren’t what they used to be. The last 4 years the Nittany Lions are 22-26 SU, and any revival, if it comes, will take time. Penn State QB Mills threw just 5 TD passes LY; highly-touted RB Scott managed just one 100-yd. game. A retooled OL and the departure of the top 5 pass catchers make an immediate bounceback unlikely. Akron QB Frye has been an offensive machine (33 starts, 8426 YP, 64%), and is looking sharp in preseason work, and move of D. Hixon from S to WR has been a boon to the offense. Zips will move the ball.
(DNP...SR: Penn State 1-0)
WISCONSIN 38 - Central Florida 10—New HC George O’Leary drew a tough assignment. Golden Knights reportedly looked very sloppy in recent scrimmages and evidently haven’t cured the problems that led to a -20 turnover count last season. Vet RB Haynes is solid but not great, and O’Leary has expressed concern over his QB situation. Wisconsin is breaking in a new QB as well, but the Badgers have the luxury of surrounding him with 9 returning starters including AA RB Anthony Davis. Look for UW to have the best of field position and push permissive CFU “D” (31 ppg LY) around.
(FIRST MEETING)
South Carolina 21 - VANDERBILT 20—Due to recent downturn, rededicated HC Holtz has changed the “ culture” and most of coaching staff at USC. But no evidence ‘Cocks erratic sr. QB Pinkins (just 50% LY, 10 TDP, 9 ints.) has also changed. With darting RBs McKenzie & Doster commanding respect, ‘Dores self-assured, accurate
jr. QB Cutler (57% LY) works play-action passes vs. vulnerable USC “D” (just 15 sacks LY: lost 3 starting DBs) adjusting to its 3rd d.c in past 17 months! Well-seasoned Vandy (20 starters back!) has been profitable home dog lately (see Angle), while
‘Cocks have won by more than 6 pts. just once as true visitor past 4Ys.
(03-S. CAR. 35-Vandy 24...V.25-22 S.45/218 V.36/137 V.27/36/1/319 S.13/21/0/161 S.0 V.2)
(03-S. CAR. -16 35-24 02-S. Car. -9' 20-14 01-S. CAR. -16' 46-14...SR: South Carolina 11-2)
*UAB 23 - Baylor 13—Alabama scouts report UAB coach Watson Brown considers this his deepest, most-talented team, especially with the return of most of the 30+ players who had surgery since the start of LY. Moreover, Baylor HC Morriss has stated
(jested?) he might not decide on his QB until the Bears are on the plane! Still, his pounding soph RB Mosley and faster, more-athletic “D” should allow Bears to “shrink” game, especially vs. Blazer team (1-7 as. fav. L2Ys) trying to avoid the drops, TOs, and inconsistency of 2003.
(03-Uab 24-BAYLOR 19...B.21-18 B.37/166 U.35/149 U.14/31/0/254 B.20/38/0/227 U.1 B.1)
(03-Uab -9 24-19...SR: UAB 1-0)
*KANSAS 27 - Tulsa 26—Even if new Kansas QB Barmann does reasonable impression of graduated, do-everything predecessor Whittemore, Big XII observers warn that LY’s acute defensive shortcomings (33 ppg & 5.1 ypc in ‘03) not likely to abate, especially since Jayhawks plugging in 3 new starters on DL. And though Tulsa
“D” could be susceptible to KU’s smashmouth tactics featuring RB Green (968 YR LY), QB Kilian and unorthodox Golden Hurricane “O” certainly capable of trading points.
(02-Kansas -4' 43-33...SR: Tulsa 6-3)
California 34 - AIR FORCE 19— We’re always wary of that sly ol’ fox Fisher DeBerry, whose past AFA editions have often been their most dangerous when downgraded. But if Cal is really as good as advertised (and we think it might be), hard to envision Falcon option and true frosh QB Carney smoothly trading points with Bears’ sophisticated attack. QB Rodgers-WR McArthur combo remains deadly, and Pac- 10 scouts say HC Jeff Tedford can’t wait to utilize his new offensive “toy” (frosh RB Lynch).
(02-Air Force +9' 23-21...SR: California 4-2)
*** OKLAHOMA 53 - Bowling Green 10—Tough spot for Motor City Bowl
champ BG, which has lost key playmaking QB Josh Harris and must face Oklahoma team eager to erase the sting of consecutive defeats to end last season. Huge QB edge for host, with Heisman-winning Jason White (40 TDP LY), in sixth season, facing soph Omar Jenkins, who had 28 atts. LY. Talent-rich Sooners outscored reg.-season foes in the first H 353-59 (!) LY. Falcs lost 82-37 in two meetings with Miami-O LY; still undersized on “D.” (FIRST MEETING)
*COLORADO 24 - Colorado State 23—Each team has plenty of holes to start 2004, so expect underdog nature (7-1) of increasingly-bitter rivalry to continue. CU players claim they’re “on a mission” for redemption after turbulent, R-rated offseason that saw 8 face sexual impropriety allegations & 6 others transfer. Jr. QB Klatt (65%
LY) & RB Purify the two to lead Buffs away from perdition. But experienced jr. CSU QB Holland, WR D. Anderson & NFL-caliber TE Dreesen give HC Lubick the tools to make it a another 60-min. battle.
(03-Colo. 42-Colo. St. 35...S.24-18 S.39/246 U.43/102 U.21/34/0/402 S.18/40/1/339 U.1 S.2)
(03-Colo. +2 42-35 02-Csu +8 19-14 01-Colo. -4' 41-14 all at Denver...SR: Colo. 55-18-2)
UCLA 23 - Oklahoma State 17— Regional sources concur that UCLA not likely to rank a Louisiana-Monroe-like 110th in total offense again now that Tom Cable (ex- Idaho HC) has assumed o.c. duties from the overmatched Steve Axman. That’s especially true if homerun WR Perry gains NCAA clearance (as expected) and provides jr. QB Olson with legit deep threat Bruins lacked LY. Big OSU OL will try to
bully undersized and rebuilt UCLA DL, but Cowboys bound to lack dynamism of LY’s attack at outset with key QB Fields (baseball), RB Bell (Broncos) & WR R. Woods (49ers) all departed. TV—ABC
(02-Ucla -6' 38-24...SR: UCLA 1-0)
*MARYLAND 23 - Northern Illinois 14—Major personnel turnover on both sides of ball for 1st time in Ralph Friedgen’s 4-year tenure at Maryland. But many of the new players are the blue-chip recruits reaped by virtue of 3 straight 10-win seasons. Terps 14-2 as home chalk L3Ys. But NIU has covered 8 of last 10 as dog. UM will get its revenge, but composed sr. QB Haldi (25 TDP, only 9 ints. LY) should keep Huskies inside roomy spread.
(03-N. ILL. 20-Mary. 13 (OT)...N.21-12 M.35/112 N.43/59 N.21/35/1/266 M.12/24/1/110 N.0 M.1)
(03-NORTHERN ILLINOIS +8 20-13 (OT)...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*NAVY 30 - Duke 20 —Mid-Atlantic scouts tell us not to pay too much attention to Navy HC Johnson’s preseason bellyaching about new QB Polanco’s slow progress, as
talent base significantly upgraded from past editions. Still, expect Middie option (led nation in rushing LY) to have fun time vs. rebuilt Duke “D” that’s minus several playmaking components from Ted Roof’s scrappy ‘03 platoon and is breaking in new DTs. Note that Navy has covered 14 of its last 17 regular-season tilts.
(02-Duke +2' 43-17...SR: Navy 16-12-5)
*INDIANA 30 - Central Michigan 20—Not interested in laying 2 TDs with Indiana contingent that’s just 5-19 SU & 6-14-2 vs. the number L2Ys. Hoosier QB LoVecchio (9 ints., only 3 TDP LY) has much to prove, and RB Green-Ellis isn’t a savior for HC
Gerry DiNardo’s crew. Well-thought-of CMU HC Brian Kelly led his Grand Valley St. teams to a pair of Div II championships, and he’s got an offensive anchor in RB Seymour (1117 YR, 5.4 ypc LY). (02-INDIANA -6 39-29...SR: Indiana 1-0)
*Memphis 28 - MISSISSIPPI 26—No player in the country might be harder to replace TY than Eli Manning, though Ole Miss coaches like the leadership & toughness of more-mobile new jr. QB Spurlock (5-11, 200). Memphis sr. QB Wimprine (30 starts, 59 TDP L3Ys) is one of 11 starters returning from balanced attack that averaged 30 ppg & 445 ypg. Joe Lee Dunn’s Tiger defense allowed only 15 ppg in last 7 of 2003.
(03-MEMP. 44-Miss. 34...Mi.22-17 Me.36/117 Mi.30/116 Me.19/34/0/389 Mi.26/48/2/292 Me.2 Mi.1)
(03-MEMPHIS +7' 44-34 02-MISSISSIPPI -9' 38-16...SR: Mississippi 41-9-2)
*MISSISSIPPI STATE 21 - Tulane 20—Expect big effort from humiliated MSU defense (45 ppg last 6 in 2003!) for respected new HC Croom. Still, insiders say Bulldogs have installed only 10-20% of new spread attack. Tulane OL (95 combined
career starts) returns intact, and true frosh RB Matt Forté moving up depth chart. If new starting QB Ricard (6-5, 225; LSU transfer) limits mistakes, Green Wave will make Croom sweat in his opener.
(03-TULANE 31-Miss. St. 28...T.26-23 M.37/225 T.31/112 T.29/47/0/349 M.16/33/0/246 T.0 M.3)
(03-TULANE +3 31-28...SR: Mississippi State 27-25-2)
*LSU 33 - Oregon State 10—With 15 starters back (9 return on nation’s No. 1 “D” !), must “lay it” with defending BCS champ LSU, which also covered 11 of 13 games LY. And with HC Saban (as if he needed any help) adding some new defensive schemes after conferencing with mentor Bill Belichick during summer, Tigers ballhawking 2ndary (34 ints. L2Ys) agitates OSU’s easily-rattled 6-6 sr. QB D. Anderson (24 ints. LY), who is without big-time weapons RB S. Jackson & WR Newson. LSU’s capable 6-2 sr. QB Randall (Baton Rouge product has 6 starts) eager for his big shot, and d-e-e-p stable of RBs figures to wear down Beaver “D” unaccustomed to stifling southern heat & humidity.
(DNP...SR: LSU 3-0)
*Texas Tech 43 - SMU 10 —TT led nation in total offense (583 ypg) LY; SMU was last in scoring (11.2 ppg). Expect repeat of LY’s mismatch, as Red Raider coach Leach says his OL & defense (9 back; plus 6 quality juco signees) are much improved and that new QB (5th-yr. sr.) Sonny Cumbie will do fine impression of B.J. Symons. Meanwhile, Mustang soph QB Phillips adjusting to new Ace-back system under new off. coord. Rusty Burns (Cincy LY). Leach 9-3 as DD fav. last 12.
(03-TEX. TECH 58-Smu 10...T.25-21 T.23/123 S.40/85 T.26/41/1/314 S.21/44/3/195 T.1 S.1)
(03-TEX. TECH -23' 58-10 02-Tex. Tech -20' 24-14...SR: Texas Tech 26-15)
*MINNESOTA 30 - Toledo 21—Reports from Minnesota indicate HC Mason has been pleased overall with defensive progress and the strides made by new QB Cupito.
However, he was very critical of mistake-plagued scrimmage serving as dress rehearsal for this game. The Gopher ground game boasts a pair of 1100-yd. rushers in Barber and Maroney operating behind a talented, veteran OL. However, Toledo has one of the premier offensive attacks in the MAC this season, featuring QB Gradkowski (71% LY) & 7 other returning starters. Clever Rocket HC Amstutz is dynamite game coach. ESPN2
(02-MINNESOTA -7' 31-21 01-TOLEDO -5 38-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*BYU 23 - Notre Dame 20—It’s not quite a Hulk Hogan vs. the Iron Sheik “loser leave town” scenario, but pressure will mount on whichever HC (BYU’s Crowton & ND’s Willingham) comes up short in this one. A measured vote, then, for Crowton’s Cougars, who MWC sources claim will have a much different look offensively now that QBs (John Beck & Matt Berry) are healthy and have a legit wideout to stretch opposing 2ndaries in mercurial WR juco Watkins. His presence could be bad news for Irish “D” that’s reportedly a step slow at CB. And not convinced still-learning ND soph QB Quinn can
deliver winning points on road vs. BYU’s unorthodox 3-3-5 “D” and vocal Provo partisans.
CABLE TV—ESPN (03-NOTRE DAME -9 33-14...SR: Notre Dame 2-1)
*STANFORD 38 - San Jose State 17—Recommendation here not necessarily an endorsement for any progress Buddy Teevens is making at Stanford. Rather, it’s an indictment of current state of affairs at San Jose, which enters campaign minus most
of its playmakers from LY and without an established QB. And though WAC sources indicate new d.c. Keith Burns (ex-Tulsa HC) a tactical upgrade for overmatched Spartan stop unit, maturing Cardinal soph QB Edwards has enough quality weapons to continue recent series reversal (Stanford has won and covered— big—last three).
(03-STAN. -13' 31-10 02-STAN. -18 63-26 01-Stan. -19' 41-14...SR: Stanford 45-13-1)
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RedSheet Newsletter
Message: AUGUST 31, 2004 VOLUME 36, NUMBER 1
Fresno State 31 - WASHINGTON 24 - (5:30 EDT - Sunday) -- Line opened at Washington minus 4½, and
is now minus 3½. The Huskies are in off their first non-bowl season since 1994, as they
needed a home upset of WashingtonSt in '03's regular season finale, to avoid a losing
campaign. They lose ten starters from a year ago, including QB Pickett, who at times
carried the squad on his back. This is a bit of a rebuilding year for Washington, while the
Bulldogs of Fresno return 17 starters from last year's bowl squad (winner over MichSt), are
led by QB Pinegar, along with all down linemen. The Bulldogs have proven over again that
they can more than compete with the powers, & open impressively in this one.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 89
Memphis 34 - MISSISSIPPI 27 - (6:00) -- Line opened at Mississippi minus 3½ & is still minus 3½. The
departure of Reb QB Manning is, of course, the most important sidebar in this matchup. His
presence provided an intangible which elevated the play of his team mates, & despite the
confidence in Spurlock (his replacement), a definite drop in offensive production can't be
prevented. And defensively, just 4 starters return. Not the case with the Tigers, who return
11 offensive starters, including QB Wimprine, who stung the Rebs for 355 yds & 3 TDs in
LY's 10-pt win over OleMiss. Note the other 2 losses suffered by the Rebs in '03 came by 3
pts to LSU, & by 4 pts to TexTech. As in game above, wrong team is favored.
RATING: MEMPHIS 89
VANDERBILT 30 - South Carolina 22 - (12:30) -- Line opened at SoCarolina minus 6, and is now minus 4½.
Do you discern a pattern here? Similar to our Superior choices, the Commodores of Vandy
return a bevy off starters: 21-of-22 to be exact, including all 11 defensive stalwarts. Sure,
the Gamecocks should be improved, offensively, with Holtz taking over that unit, but USC
ranked 82nd in the land in scoring a year ago, so the climb to respectability is a bit steep, &
note that there is nary a green starter on that Vandy "D". The 'Dores rolled up 456 yds & 25
FDs vs the 'Cocks a year ago, with QB Cutler tossing for 319 yds & 3 TDs, thus moving it
shouldn't be a problem here. We'll take the small spot again.
RATING: VANDERBILT 88
Ohio State 24 - CINCINNATI 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 17, and is now minus 15½. The
fabled Buckeye program has been a study in efficiency the past 2 seasons, winning 25-of-
27 games, as well as finishing #1 & #4 in the land. Their talent is rarely matched, & despite
losing 13 starters from a year ago, they are deep again. However, they no longer have the
leadership of QB Krenzel, who was made it all work. And in the trenches, OSt has lost 6-of-
9 starters. The Bearcats gave the Bucks all that they could handle 2 years ago, losing a
heartbreaker in Columbus, in the final 4 minutes. Cincy is rarely out of a contest, & with 9
offensive starters back, including QB Guidugli, should stay close again.
RATING: CINCINNATI 88
RUTGERS 24 - Michigan State 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 7, and is now minus 6. Yet
another game, which sees us on the side of an early week money move (check below). The
Knights, of course, are not among collegiate elites, not enjoying a winning season since 7-
4 in '92. But, although they went 5-7 SU a year ago, it was a vast improvement from '02,
when the Knights managed but a single win. Not only that, but Rutgers posted the best
spread record in the nation: 10-1-1, coming within 4 pts from a 12-0 sweep. The Knights
return 16 starters, including QB Hart (2,714 PYs in '03), & 8 other offensive vets. The loss of
QB Smoker may be a bit much to overcome for the Spartans. Call the upset.
RATING: RUTGERS 88
PURDUE 44 - Syracuse 17 - (1:30 Sunday) -- Line opened at Purdue minus 13, and is now minus 12. We
came within a whisker of having a 6-of-6 underdog sweep of our featured releases this
week, but the Boilers eventually won out as our final choice. Tiller has worked his offensive
magic since arriving at West Lafayette in '97 (7 consecutive bowl rewards), with competitiveness
the hallmark of his squads. Eight starters return from that unit, including QB
Orton, who is the early choice for BigTen's "Offensive Player of the Year". The 'Cuse has
become an annual disappointment in the recruiting wars, with the result a floundering program
(1 bowl in 4 years), & is going with green QBing here. Spread not high enuff.
RATING: PURDUE 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Miami-Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado State -- The NFL Begins Next Week.
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): WestVirginia (-26½ to -28½); Cincinnati (+17 to +15½);
Vanderbilt (+6 to +4½); OklahomaSt (+2½ to +1); New Mexico (+2½ to +1½); Rutgers (+7 to +6); New
MexicoSt (+21 to +20); Iowa (-28 to -29); Syracuse (+13 to +12); FresnoSt (+4½ to +3½) -- TIME CHANGES:
Rutgers/MichiganSt: now 3:30; WestVa/ECaro: now 6:00; Clemson/WkForest: now 3:30; Mich/MiamiOhio:
now Noon; PennSt/Akron: now 3:30; Wisconsin/CentFla: now Noon; Vandy/SoCarolina: now 12:30; Uab/
Baylor: now 7:00; Kansas/Tulsa: now 7:00; Calif/AirForce: now Noon; Oklahoma/BG: now Noon; ColoSt/
Colo: now 8:00; MissSt/Tulane: now 6:00; Lsu/OregonSt: now 6:00; Stanford/SanJoseSt: now 10:00......
RED SHEET ONLINE RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
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Here's the rest of the report...
ADDED GAMES
AUBURN 52 - Louisiana-Monroe 7 —In contrast with season-opening losses to Southern Cal past 2 seasons, Auburn enjoys early tuneup vs. overmatched ULM squad that’s trailed 45-0 & 35-0 by halftime of past 2 series beatings. Scouts say Tigers 6-5 sr. QB Campbell smoothly running new West Coast. AU’s punishing ground assault, featuring RBs “Cadillac” Williams (1307 YR), “Bentley” Brown (446 YR) & versatile Tre Smith (Tuberville says “he’s too valuable to redshirt”) scores in bushels. Youthful Tiger defense reportedly even faster TY!
(03-AUBURN 73-La.-Mon. 7...A.25-10 A.43/241 U.32/23 A.16/21/1/240 U.10/25/3/128 A.0 U.1)
(03-AUBURN -37 73-7 02-AUBURN -35' 52-14...SR: Auburn 5-0)
*ALABAMA 31 - Utah State 10 —Sure, pumped-up Bama (bowl eligible following 2- year ban) more settled in Shula’s 2nd campaign. But still suggest taking big number with defensively -maturing Utah State (8 return on unit that rose from 111th to 45th LY!) that has lost by 27 pts. or fewer in past 19 games (covered at Nebraska & Ariz. St. LY). Aggies accurate, poised 6-2 sr. QB Cox (57%, 18 TDs, just 7 ints.) should test shuffled Tide 2ndary (10th in SEC LY). And, while Bama’s 6-3 jr. QB Croyle finally healthy, passing game probably won’t flourish this early with brand new set of WRs.
(FIRST MEETING)
MARSHALL 32 - Troy State 13—Troy caught Marshall coming off upset at Kansas State in LY’s home win. Herd attack is potent (scouts say look out for blue-chip true frosh RB Bradshaw & WR Spann, who originally signed with Virginia & Wisconsin,
respectively). And deep MU DL matches up well vs. Trojan RB Betterson (1161 YR LY). Unless TSU (only 42% in 2003!) has more credible aerial threat, payback should work.
(03-TROY ST. 33-Mar. 24...M.18-13 T.48/254 M.27/98 M.33/52/3/319 T.6/17/0/95 T.1 M.1)
(03-TROY STATE +12' 33-24 02-MARSHALL -20' 24-7...SR: Marshall 3-1)
*FLORIDA 52 - Middle Tennessee State 17—Young but loaded UF has destroyed its last 3 season-opening foes (combined 165-20 score!), and envision similiar scenario in ‘04. After all, Gators marvelous soph QB Leak (59%, 2,435 YP), who is operating a more fast-paced attack, should repeatedly riddle rebuilt MTS 2ndary, while formidable, super-deep ground attack (watch out for fast/powerful frosh RB Mason) overpowers Blue Raiders front 7. MTS mentor McCollom loves his “O,” but insiders say issues still exist concerning recently -underachieving squad’s mental toughness.
(DNP...SR: Florida 1-0)
*MISSOURI 44 - Arkansas State 3—Lots of wood for Mizzou to chop. But Tiger scouts report no-nonsense HC Pinkel (6-1 as DD fav. L2Ys) calling on his improving team to play at a high level every game. Even with rebuilt OL, QB Brad Smith, deep RB corps, and faster defense (two Ss moved to LB) give MU big edge. ASU breaking in new QB (starter Jacobs left for baseball), while 4-5 frosh might start on rebuilding defense. (FIRST MEETING)
*ARKANSAS 26 - New Mexico State 10—With heavy rebuilding on both sides of ball (just 4 overall starters back) reluctant to lay 3 TDs with immature Arkansas squad that also has major lookahead with Texas next week. Hogs swift 6-6 sr. QB M. Jones (707 YR LY) and young supporting cast not as effective in rematch vs. veteran NMS stop unit (10 starters back), led by an assertive Aggie 2ndary (27th nationally LY). State’s complementary sr. QB duo of Pierce (69%! LY) & Dombrowski (384 YR LY) should move chains some vs. undeveloped Razorback defense filling holes with lots of underclassmen.
(03-ARK. 48-New Mex. St. 20...A.23-19 A.56/308 N.37/136 N.19/27/0/214 A.12/17/0/192 A.1 N.2)
(03-ARKANSAS -29' 48-20...SR: Arkansas 2-0)
*TEXAS 33 - North Texas 13 —Texas going to a ground-oriented style, featuring RB Benson & extra-dimension QB Vince Young, in early going while new WRs gain playing time. That’s fine for prideful, three-time Sun Belt champ North Texas. Mean Green returns nearly all key performers on offense. And, with huge revenge game at Arkansas on tap for Longhorns, you can expect new UT def. architect Greg Robinson (K.C. LY) to try to keep some of his new tricks in the bag, if possible.
(02-TEXAS -35 27-0...SR: Texas 7-0)
*BOISE STATE 40 - Idaho 13—Even though new HC Nick Holt was reportedly aghast at lack of depth he inherited at Idaho, not sure we want to lay a premium number with Boise. After all, Bronco squads with more-established weaponry have had trouble with fired-up rival Vandals past two years, and rising pointspread caught up with Broncos LY (only 2-3 vs. line at home). HC Hawkins might not want to unveil full bag of tricks with revenge battle vs. Oregon State on deck.
(03-Boise St. 24-IDAHO 10...19-19 B.43/263 I.29/55 I.25/51/0/273 B.15/25/0/165 B.2 I.1)
(03-Bsu -24 24-10 02-BSU -23 38-21 01-Bsu -11' 45-13...SR: Idaho 17-15-1)
*HAWAII 45 - Florida Atlantic 24— He’s back! Howard Schnellenberger, that is, with new Div. I-A entry FAU, and Owls aren’t likely to roll over with 10 starters back on offense and defense from LY’s 11-3 squad that made I-AA playoffs. Still, though sources say talented soph QB Allen (24 TDP & only 9 ints. LY) could damage rebuilt Hawaii “D,” Schnellenberger’s stop unit has never faced anything resembling June Jones’ dizzying Red Gun that returns sr. QB Chang and most all of his supporting cast from ‘03. And it’s a long trip from Boca Raton to Honolulu. (FIRST MEETING)
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Here's the GS report for Sunday & Monday games...
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
PURDUE 31 - Syracuse 14 —Purdue o.c. Jim Chaney is looking forward to unleashing an attack he thinks will remind Boiler faithful of the days of Drew Brees. Sr. QB Kyle Orton (61%, 2885 YP LY) is going to air it out, and Syracuse has had trouble stopping the pass the last 2 years, yielding 44 TD passes and 269 ypg passing. Orton
has a variety of weapons, including WR Stubblefield (86 recs. LY) and RB Void (13 rush TDs). Syracuse has more limited offensive options, as beleaguered HC Pasqualoni has top-flight RB Reyes (1347 YR LY), but not much else. None of the three prospective QB candidates has been in a game. Oh boy! TV—ABC
(FIRST MEETING)
LOUISVILLE 30 - Kentucky 26—Explosive L’ville attack (5th nationally LY) admittedly owns more proven weapons of mass production. But will still “take” with rival Kentucky, seething from LY’s 40-24 nationally -televised loss, when Cards scored
on 2-yd. run with only :06 left instead of taking a knee. Ouch! Scouts believe Wildcats athletic dual threat, 6-3 sr. QB Boyd, ready to thrive in o.c. Hudson’s roll-out oriented attack, alleviating some pressure from totally rebuilt OL. Disappointing Card 2ndary (258 ypg passing) was baffled by most quality QBs LY (hence, new d.c. Mike Cassity),
and visitor has covered 5 of last 6 in series. CABLE TV—ESPN
(03-Lvl. 40-KY. 24...L.22-21 L.44/240 K.36/108 K.18/32/2/236 L.14/23/1/180 L.0 K.0)
(03-Lvl. +5' 40-24 02-Ky. +13 22-17 01-Lvl. -3' 36-10...SR: Kentucky 10-6)
Houston 35 - Rice 27— Don’t expect any of that fancy passin’ stuff from Rice TY after Kenny Hatfield experimented with some 3 and 4-WR looks before going back to straight option football the last half of ‘03, winning 4 of last 6 and netting 489 ypg down stretch. But still-suspect Owls “D” was turned inside-out by Art Briles’ unique Houston spread/option LY, and C-USA scouts raving about progress of soph QB Kolb, who wasn’t too shabby as a frosh (61%, 25 TDP & only 8 ints.) (at Reliant Stadium)
(03-HOUSTON 48-Rice 14...H.22-14 R.46/206 H.49/194 H.17/23/0/246 R.6/13/2/36 H.0 R.0)
(03-HOUSTON -4' 48-14 02-Houston +7' 24-10 01-Rice +1' 21-14...SR: Houston 22-8)
*** Fresno State 27 - WASHINGTON 20 —Pat Hill and FSU live for these dates vs. high-profile foes, evidenced by Bulldogs’ 7-1 spread mark last 8 vs. Pac-10. And fact remains that FSU was probably flat-out better than Washington LY, and might be so again. Befuddled Huskies HC Gilbertson still unsure about QB spot (little-used
holdovers Paus & “slash” Stanback), which could be problem vs. what WAC sources say is Hill’s best-ever 2ndary. And expect more dynamism from QB Pinegar after injury-hampered ‘03. No surprise if clutch FSU PK Visintainer proves difference.
(DNP...SR: Washington 1-0)
*TENNESSEE 27 - Unlv 13 —Though UT mentor Fulmer says still-competing true frosh QBs Schaeffer & Ainge are “unusually mature,” Fulmer will limit playbook here and mostly resort to smashmouth approach with his vet bunch of RBs. But UNLV’s
active, physical back 8—anchored by omnipresent 215 FS Brimmer & stout pair of sr. LBs Seward & Claridge (both 250)—able to keep Vols from steamrolling. Heck, Rebels deep, diverse group of RBs (former Neb. signee Marshall added to mix) also
impressive, while ugpraded aerial game (under 2nd-year o.c. Bruce Synder), featuring prime-time 6-3 sr. WR E. Johnson (60 catches LY), could challenge unsettled Vol 2ndary (lost 3 starters). Robo 5-1-1 as DD road dog since ‘99! CABLE TV—ESPN2
(DNP...SR: Tennessee 1-0)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 6
SOUTH FLORIDA 16 - Pittsburgh 10—Pittsburgh offense (only 3 starters return) has all sorts of concerns entering TY (see Special Ticker). South Florida attack no
juggernaut. But Bulls have good RB depth & a starting OL that returns en masse. Fiesty USF joins Big East next season, and it was 4-0 SU vs. C-USA teams the year before entering that loop. Favor host (21-game home win streak before pair of 3-point losses LY) and “under.” CABLE TV—ESPN
(01-South Florida +23 35-26...SR: South Florida 1-0)
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LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE
By Gary Olshan, Chief Analyst
Baylor at UAB...Baylor has been Big XII bottom feeder since mid ‘90s, but you can bet UAB won’t take Bears lightly after narrow 24-19 win at Waco LY. Blazer QB Hackney threw winning 50-yd. TD pass with just 40 secs. to go!
Baylor HC Guy Morriss has provided bulletin board material when he publicly
said in preseason that early games vs. UAB, Texas State and North Texas were “ must wins.”
Cal at AIR FORCE...Terrible role lately for Cal, which is 0-7-2 as road chalk since ‘95. AF starting its 1st true frosh QB (Carney) since ‘86. Notre Dame at BYU...BYU on a mission (no pun intended) following sloppy (Cougs committed 4 TOs) in 33-14 setback at South Bend LY. BYU has covered 5 straight openers. ND just 5-12 vs. spread last 17 on board.
Wake Forest at CLEMSON ...Expect revenge-minded Clemson to come out smoking after falling behind 35-0 by halftime in embarrassing 45-17 shocker at Wake Forest LY. Tigers, who had won 8 of previous 9 in series SU, handed Deacons a couple of early TDs (WF scored on a 85-yd. int. & 12-yd. fumble return). Numerous Clemson players claimed they were distracted by upcoming battle with Florida State in “Death Valley” LY.
Colorado at COLORADO ...Underdog has covered 7 of past 8 between these two heated rivals. CSU mentor Sonny Lubick is 14-5 in underdog role since ‘99.
Kent State at IOWA ...Iowa has been nation’s No.1 bully over last decade, posting an amazing 20-2 spread mark as DD chalk in Kinnick Stadium since ‘94. Hawkeyes are a perfect 10-0 vs. points in that role last 4 seasons!
Oregon State at LSU...BCS national champ LSU is solid 9-2 vs. spread in Tiger Stadium last 2 seasons, including perfect 5-0 mark as DD chalk over same time frame. OSU is arriving in Baton Rouge on Thursday in an attempt to get acclimated to the typically oppressive southern late summer heat & humidity.
Northern Illinois at MARYLAND ...Maryland has been itching for this
rematch all summer following 20-13 OT loss at Northern Illinois in LY’s opener,
when Terps took Huskies lightly by spending extra time preparing for upcoming Florida State battle. Maryland is 14-2 as home chalk under shrewd 4th-year mentor Friedgen, including 7-1 mark as DD favorite. Huskies, however, are 8- 2 last 10 as an underdog, including 3 straight as DD dog.
Troy State at MARSHALL ...Proud Marshall aching for this revenge game
after claiming it was “unfocused” in 33-24 upset loss at Troy State LY. Note,
that Thundering Herd was off brutal trio of games the previous 3 weeks (at
Tennessee, Toledo, & upset at Kansas State!). Marshall still outgained Trojans
417-349, but couldn’t overcome Troy State’s momentum-shifting 70-yd int.
return for TD when Herd trailed only 20-17 early in final period.
Cincinnati at OHIO STATE...Cincy nearly pulled off a major upset vs. more
prestigious instate power Ohio State in 23-19 loss at Paul Brown Stadium in ‘02. Bearcat then-soph QB Guidugli bedazzled the Buckeye 2ndary, throwing for 324 yds., and Cincy led 19-14 in 4th Q before Buckeyes scored final 9 pts. to narrowly escape. This opener has extra significance for new Bearcat HC Mark Dantonio, who tutored under mentor Jim Tressel at both Youngstown State &Ohio State.
Michigan State at RUTGERS ...Ascending Rutgers has been feisty home dog lately, going 7-2 in that role last 2 seasons, and don’t forget Scarlet Knight were sizzling 10-1-1 vs. spread LY, including 44-28 spread-covering loss at MSU in ‘03.
Texas Tech at SMU ...TT was 6-2 as chalk LY, which includes 58-10
thrashing vs. SMU LY. Mustangs only 7-17 vs. number under beleaguered HC
Phil Bennett.
South Carolina at VANDERBILT ...Vandy has been scrappy home dog in
recent times, going 8-2-1 in Nashville since ‘01, which includes competitive 20- 14 setback vs. South Carolina in ‘02 (‘Dores were 9 ½-pt. dog). ‘Cocks have
been an unwise investment lately, posting an 8-15-1 spread record since ‘02.
East Carolina at WEST VIRGINIA ...WV’s ground attack has overwhelmed
ECU defense in past 2 blowouts, as Mountaineer RBs have rolled up a
whopping 536 & 361 YR in ‘02 & ‘03 respectively.
Florida State at MIAMI...Miami has defeated Florida-based schools 9
straight times, including 5 in row vs. FSU, and Hurricanes have covered 5 of
past 6 in series. However, 4 of past 5 decided by total of just 14 pts.
Fresno State at WASHINGTON (Sunday)...FSU’s fiery HC Pat Hill relishes the opportunity to face Pac-10 squads to prove his Bulldogs can compete with the “big boys.” FSU has clearly risen to the occasion lately, recording 6-1 spread mark since ‘02, including impressive upsets vs. Oregon State and UCLA
(Silicon Valley Bowl) in ‘03.
THE GOLD SHEET
SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
CINCINNATI Plus over Ohio State
OKLAHOMA by 43 over Bowling Green
FRESNO STATE by 7 over Washington (Sun., Sept. 5)
Analysis of Key Selections
Cincinnati 16 - OHIO STATE 20—Not ready to lay a lot of points in opener with OSU team that’s making numerous changes. New QB Justin Zwick, rebuilt offensive and defensive lines, and new defensive coordinator point to potential slow start by Buckeyes. New Cincy HC Dantonio’s (OSU d.c. LY) unlucky crew lost numerous close games LY. With sr. QB Gino Guidugli surrounded by a veteran cast (16 starters plus P/PK Chet Ervin return), look for Bearcats to give in-state rival a game. (02-Osu -18 23-19...SR: OSU 11-2).
OKLAHOMA 53 - Bowling Green 10 —Tough spot for Motor City Bowl champ BG, which has lost key playmaking QB Josh Harris and must face Oklahoma team eager to erase the sting of consecutive defeats to end last season. Huge QB edge for host, with Heisman-winning Jason White (40 TDP LY), in sixth season, facing soph Omar Jenkins, who had 28 atts. LY. Talent-rich Sooners outscored reg.-season foes in the first H 353-59 (!) LY. Falcs lost 82-37 in two meetings with Miami-O LY; still undersized on “D.” (FIRST MEETING)
Fresno State 27 - WASHINGTON 20 —Pat Hill and FSU live for these dates vs. high-profile foes, evidenced by Bulldogs’ 7-1 spread mark last 8 vs. Pac-10. And fact remains that FSU was probably flat-out better than Washington LY, and might be so again. Befuddled Huskies HC Gilbertson still unsure about QB spot (little-used holdovers Paus & “slash” Stanback), which could be problem vs. what WAC sources say is Hill’s best-ever 2ndary. And expect more dynamism from QB Pinegar after injury-hampered ‘03. No surprise if clutch FSU PK Visintainer proves difference.
(DNP...SR: Washington 1-0)
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THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
IOWA
VANDERBILT
BYU
FRESNO STATE
UNLV
Analysis of Rated Selections
IOWA
Iowa has been a pointspread powerhouse for HC Kirk Ferentz the past few seasons, and there’s no reason to suspect the Hawkeyes can’t keep it going in their Saturday afternoon opener at Kinnick Stadium against visiting Kent State. Iowa couldn’t have done better against the line at Iowa City last year, covering all 7 chances as host, which merely continued a string of success that’s seen the Hawkeyes cover 19 of their last 22 tries at home. Also included in Iowa’s recent pointspread march of destruction is 11 straight ****** as double-digit chalk, nine straight c at Iowa City. And Ferentz’ recent overall success vs. the number (34-13 last 47 on board!) make his Hawkeyes a featured play in the Coach & Pointspread system each week.
VANDERBILT
Believe it or not, Vanderbilt has offered a lot of pointspread value in certain roles the past couple of seasons, and some of those would apply to this week’s opener at Nashville against visiting South Carolina. Since HC Bobby Johnson arrived in 2002, the Commodores are 6-1 vs. the line at Vanderbilt Stadium vs. SEC foes (6-1-1 as home dog that span). Vandy has also covered the past two years in this SEC East series. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have offered little value lately for Lou Holtz, especially as a visitor, where his Gamecocks have covered only 3 of 10 tries the past two seasons. Overall, SC is just 8-15-1 vs. the spread since ’02, and Holtz hasn’t won by more than 6 points his last 16 tries as a visitor.
BYU
It’s opening week, which has been good for BYU backers the past couple of seasons. The Cougars have covered all three of their openers since HC Gary Crowton took over in 2001, and five straight lid-lifters overall, heading into this Saturday night’s clash vs. Notre Dame at Provo. Note that Crowton’s Cougar teams have also covered 5 of their last 7 games getting points. As for the Irish, it’s been a struggle since late in the 2002 campaign, as ND has covered just 5 of its last 17 overall for HC Tyrone Willingham. Those subpar marks extend to recent tries as a favorite (3-6 last nine) and away from South Bend (also 3-6 vs. number last nine).
FRESNO STATE
Fresno State has relished its recent opportunities to play against Pac-10 foes, covering 7 of its last 8 chances in those contests, and gets anotheropportunity in that role Sunday afternoon at Seattle against a recently disappointing Washington. The Bulldogs have also flourished as an underdog lately for HC Pat Hill, covering 11 of 16 tries getting points since ’01, and 17 of 26 since ’99, qualifying FSU as a featured play with Hill in the College Coach as Underdog system this week. Note thatunderdogs are 39-23-2 vs. the spread in all Bulldog games since ’99. As for the Huskies, their recent pointspread woes are quite comprehensive, including a 4-8 spread mark last season for HC Keith Gilbertson (2-5 as chalk), 3-11 last 14 as chalk, and 9-21-1 their last 31 laying points in Seattle.
UNLV
Tennessee has had some pronounced pointspread shortcomings over the past few seasons. The often-overvalued Volunteers stand only 6-13-1 vs. the spread overall (6-11-1 as chalk) since ’01 at Neyland Stadium, and will be hardpressed to improve upon that mark when hosting capable UNLV Sunday night. Tennessee has also failed to cover its last five hosting non-SEC foes, and has dropped 7 of its last 8 pointspread decisions vs. non-conference opposition. Meanwhile, the Rebels are a solid 5-1-1 vs. the number as a double-digit road dog since HC John Robinson took over in ’99.
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SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Michigan State 24 - RUTGERS 23—Sure, oddsmaker on alert after Rutgers went 10-1-1 vs. spread LY. But 9 starters return from an offense that scored nearly twice as many ppg than in 2002. And rah-rah HC Schiano’s recruiting has given Scarlet Knights more size & speed throughout the lineup. MSU star QB Smoker is gone, new No. 1 QB Stanton has nagging knee injury, and top 2 Spartan RBs from LY are now playing “D”!
(03-MICH. ST. 44-Rutgers 28...M.25-12 M.40/134 R.36/M2 M.21/34/2/351 R.14/31/2/266 M.1 R.0)
(03-MICHIGAN STATE -19 44-28...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Virginia 33 - TEMPLE 13—UVa OL is top-notch, and jr. RB Lundy & jr. TE H. Miller are two of nation’s most versatile skill players. New QB Hagans (5-10, 207) isn’t an NFL caliber passer like former triggerman Schaub (6-5, 240). That probably won’t matter against Temple, which is already trying to compensate for major attrition at CB. Buffed Owl QB Walter Washington packs a wallop when he runs; talented Cav LBs will hit back.
(FIRST MEETING)
*WEST VIRGINIA 47 - East Carolina 13—Watered-down Big East has
expectations running high in Morgantown. And insiders say intense HC Rodriguez has regularly been going “Bobby Knight” on his players during preseason. Mounties won’t let up for fear of the week of practice that might follow.
(03-W. Va. 48-E. CAR. 7...W.26-23 W.48/361 E.36/102 E.25/38/2/226 W.11/18/0/194 W.0 E.3)
(03-W. Virginia -9' 48-7 02-W. VIRGINIA -7 37-17...SR: West Virginia 13-2)
CLEMSON 31 - Wake Forest 24—The media had Clemson HC Bowden all but fired after humiliating beating at Winston-Salem LY. But Bowden & Tigers now considered an ACC “sleeper” after strong 2003 stretch drive. NFL-caliber jr. QB Whitehurst (62% LY) rates HUGE edge over Wake counterpart Randolph (HC Grobe
says blue-chip RS frosh QB Mauk will play at least a few series every game). But Deacons OL & RB depth will make host work the full 60 minutes for its revenge.
(03-W. FOR. 45-Clem. 17...C.29-22 W.60/321 C.24/62 C.35/57/1/343 W.5/7/0/79 W.1 C.2)
(03-WFU -1 45-17 02-CLEM. -8' 31-23 01-Clem. -7 21-14...SR: Clemson 53-15-1)
*** Cincinnati 16 - OHIO STATE 20—Not ready to lay a lot of points in opener with OSU team that’s making numerous changes. New QB Justin Zwick, rebuilt offensive and defensive lines, and new defensive coordinator point to potential slow start by Buckeyes. New Cincy HC Dantonio’s (OSU d.c. LY) unlucky crew lost
numerous close games LY. With sr. QB Gino Guidugli surrounded by a veteran cast (16 starters plus P/PK Chet Ervin return), look for Bearcats to give in-state rival a game.
(02-Osu -18 23-19...SR: OSU 11-2)
IOWA 41 - Kent State 6 —Absence of dynamic do-everything Kent QB Joshua Cribbs (suspended for this game) means this one won’t be close. Iowa also has a key offensive contributor suspended, as RB Jermelle Lewis will also sit, but the Hawkeyes
have the depth to compensate. Iowa QB Drew Tate will be making his first start, and the Hawkeye attack is young, but it’s the Iowa defense that’s helped Hawkeyes go 19-3 vs. the number last 22 at home (11-0 laying double digits). DT Babineaux, DE Roth
and LB Hodge will make life miserable for young Flash attack.
(01-IOWA -27 51-0...SR: Iowa 1-0)
MICHIGAN 27 - Miami-Ohio 14—Life without Roethlisberger looked good last week in Miami’s 49-0 tuneup throttling of Indiana St., but things get tougher. Wolverine HC Carr says his defense, which has been favorably compared with the stellar ‘97 unit, must and can carry the team early, as soph QB Gutierrez gains experience. Scouts indicate the Michigan attack will eventually be more versatile than LY, utilizing more movement and deception to maximize effectiveness of arguably the best corps of WRs in college ball. Still, cupboard not bare at Miami, as RedHawk QB Betts was very productive in rainy debut, and Miami-O.’s 14-game win streak won’t end without a fight.
(01-MIC -24' 31-13...SR: Michigan 3-0)
PENN STATE 31 - Akron 19—Penn State and Joe Paterno simply aren’t what they used to be. The last 4 years the Nittany Lions are 22-26 SU, and any revival, if it comes, will take time. Penn State QB Mills threw just 5 TD passes LY; highly-touted RB Scott managed just one 100-yd. game. A retooled OL and the departure of the top 5 pass catchers make an immediate bounceback unlikely. Akron QB Frye has been an offensive machine (33 starts, 8426 YP, 64%), and is looking sharp in preseason work, and move of D. Hixon from S to WR has been a boon to the offense. Zips will move the ball.
(DNP...SR: Penn State 1-0)
WISCONSIN 38 - Central Florida 10—New HC George O’Leary drew a tough assignment. Golden Knights reportedly looked very sloppy in recent scrimmages and evidently haven’t cured the problems that led to a -20 turnover count last season. Vet RB Haynes is solid but not great, and O’Leary has expressed concern over his QB situation. Wisconsin is breaking in a new QB as well, but the Badgers have the luxury of surrounding him with 9 returning starters including AA RB Anthony Davis. Look for UW to have the best of field position and push permissive CFU “D” (31 ppg LY) around.
(FIRST MEETING)
South Carolina 21 - VANDERBILT 20—Due to recent downturn, rededicated HC Holtz has changed the “ culture” and most of coaching staff at USC. But no evidence ‘Cocks erratic sr. QB Pinkins (just 50% LY, 10 TDP, 9 ints.) has also changed. With darting RBs McKenzie & Doster commanding respect, ‘Dores self-assured, accurate
jr. QB Cutler (57% LY) works play-action passes vs. vulnerable USC “D” (just 15 sacks LY: lost 3 starting DBs) adjusting to its 3rd d.c in past 17 months! Well-seasoned Vandy (20 starters back!) has been profitable home dog lately (see Angle), while
‘Cocks have won by more than 6 pts. just once as true visitor past 4Ys.
(03-S. CAR. 35-Vandy 24...V.25-22 S.45/218 V.36/137 V.27/36/1/319 S.13/21/0/161 S.0 V.2)
(03-S. CAR. -16 35-24 02-S. Car. -9' 20-14 01-S. CAR. -16' 46-14...SR: South Carolina 11-2)
*UAB 23 - Baylor 13—Alabama scouts report UAB coach Watson Brown considers this his deepest, most-talented team, especially with the return of most of the 30+ players who had surgery since the start of LY. Moreover, Baylor HC Morriss has stated
(jested?) he might not decide on his QB until the Bears are on the plane! Still, his pounding soph RB Mosley and faster, more-athletic “D” should allow Bears to “shrink” game, especially vs. Blazer team (1-7 as. fav. L2Ys) trying to avoid the drops, TOs, and inconsistency of 2003.
(03-Uab 24-BAYLOR 19...B.21-18 B.37/166 U.35/149 U.14/31/0/254 B.20/38/0/227 U.1 B.1)
(03-Uab -9 24-19...SR: UAB 1-0)
*KANSAS 27 - Tulsa 26—Even if new Kansas QB Barmann does reasonable impression of graduated, do-everything predecessor Whittemore, Big XII observers warn that LY’s acute defensive shortcomings (33 ppg & 5.1 ypc in ‘03) not likely to abate, especially since Jayhawks plugging in 3 new starters on DL. And though Tulsa
“D” could be susceptible to KU’s smashmouth tactics featuring RB Green (968 YR LY), QB Kilian and unorthodox Golden Hurricane “O” certainly capable of trading points.
(02-Kansas -4' 43-33...SR: Tulsa 6-3)
California 34 - AIR FORCE 19— We’re always wary of that sly ol’ fox Fisher DeBerry, whose past AFA editions have often been their most dangerous when downgraded. But if Cal is really as good as advertised (and we think it might be), hard to envision Falcon option and true frosh QB Carney smoothly trading points with Bears’ sophisticated attack. QB Rodgers-WR McArthur combo remains deadly, and Pac- 10 scouts say HC Jeff Tedford can’t wait to utilize his new offensive “toy” (frosh RB Lynch).
(02-Air Force +9' 23-21...SR: California 4-2)
*** OKLAHOMA 53 - Bowling Green 10—Tough spot for Motor City Bowl
champ BG, which has lost key playmaking QB Josh Harris and must face Oklahoma team eager to erase the sting of consecutive defeats to end last season. Huge QB edge for host, with Heisman-winning Jason White (40 TDP LY), in sixth season, facing soph Omar Jenkins, who had 28 atts. LY. Talent-rich Sooners outscored reg.-season foes in the first H 353-59 (!) LY. Falcs lost 82-37 in two meetings with Miami-O LY; still undersized on “D.” (FIRST MEETING)
*COLORADO 24 - Colorado State 23—Each team has plenty of holes to start 2004, so expect underdog nature (7-1) of increasingly-bitter rivalry to continue. CU players claim they’re “on a mission” for redemption after turbulent, R-rated offseason that saw 8 face sexual impropriety allegations & 6 others transfer. Jr. QB Klatt (65%
LY) & RB Purify the two to lead Buffs away from perdition. But experienced jr. CSU QB Holland, WR D. Anderson & NFL-caliber TE Dreesen give HC Lubick the tools to make it a another 60-min. battle.
(03-Colo. 42-Colo. St. 35...S.24-18 S.39/246 U.43/102 U.21/34/0/402 S.18/40/1/339 U.1 S.2)
(03-Colo. +2 42-35 02-Csu +8 19-14 01-Colo. -4' 41-14 all at Denver...SR: Colo. 55-18-2)
UCLA 23 - Oklahoma State 17— Regional sources concur that UCLA not likely to rank a Louisiana-Monroe-like 110th in total offense again now that Tom Cable (ex- Idaho HC) has assumed o.c. duties from the overmatched Steve Axman. That’s especially true if homerun WR Perry gains NCAA clearance (as expected) and provides jr. QB Olson with legit deep threat Bruins lacked LY. Big OSU OL will try to
bully undersized and rebuilt UCLA DL, but Cowboys bound to lack dynamism of LY’s attack at outset with key QB Fields (baseball), RB Bell (Broncos) & WR R. Woods (49ers) all departed. TV—ABC
(02-Ucla -6' 38-24...SR: UCLA 1-0)
*MARYLAND 23 - Northern Illinois 14—Major personnel turnover on both sides of ball for 1st time in Ralph Friedgen’s 4-year tenure at Maryland. But many of the new players are the blue-chip recruits reaped by virtue of 3 straight 10-win seasons. Terps 14-2 as home chalk L3Ys. But NIU has covered 8 of last 10 as dog. UM will get its revenge, but composed sr. QB Haldi (25 TDP, only 9 ints. LY) should keep Huskies inside roomy spread.
(03-N. ILL. 20-Mary. 13 (OT)...N.21-12 M.35/112 N.43/59 N.21/35/1/266 M.12/24/1/110 N.0 M.1)
(03-NORTHERN ILLINOIS +8 20-13 (OT)...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*NAVY 30 - Duke 20 —Mid-Atlantic scouts tell us not to pay too much attention to Navy HC Johnson’s preseason bellyaching about new QB Polanco’s slow progress, as
talent base significantly upgraded from past editions. Still, expect Middie option (led nation in rushing LY) to have fun time vs. rebuilt Duke “D” that’s minus several playmaking components from Ted Roof’s scrappy ‘03 platoon and is breaking in new DTs. Note that Navy has covered 14 of its last 17 regular-season tilts.
(02-Duke +2' 43-17...SR: Navy 16-12-5)
*INDIANA 30 - Central Michigan 20—Not interested in laying 2 TDs with Indiana contingent that’s just 5-19 SU & 6-14-2 vs. the number L2Ys. Hoosier QB LoVecchio (9 ints., only 3 TDP LY) has much to prove, and RB Green-Ellis isn’t a savior for HC
Gerry DiNardo’s crew. Well-thought-of CMU HC Brian Kelly led his Grand Valley St. teams to a pair of Div II championships, and he’s got an offensive anchor in RB Seymour (1117 YR, 5.4 ypc LY). (02-INDIANA -6 39-29...SR: Indiana 1-0)
*Memphis 28 - MISSISSIPPI 26—No player in the country might be harder to replace TY than Eli Manning, though Ole Miss coaches like the leadership & toughness of more-mobile new jr. QB Spurlock (5-11, 200). Memphis sr. QB Wimprine (30 starts, 59 TDP L3Ys) is one of 11 starters returning from balanced attack that averaged 30 ppg & 445 ypg. Joe Lee Dunn’s Tiger defense allowed only 15 ppg in last 7 of 2003.
(03-MEMP. 44-Miss. 34...Mi.22-17 Me.36/117 Mi.30/116 Me.19/34/0/389 Mi.26/48/2/292 Me.2 Mi.1)
(03-MEMPHIS +7' 44-34 02-MISSISSIPPI -9' 38-16...SR: Mississippi 41-9-2)
*MISSISSIPPI STATE 21 - Tulane 20—Expect big effort from humiliated MSU defense (45 ppg last 6 in 2003!) for respected new HC Croom. Still, insiders say Bulldogs have installed only 10-20% of new spread attack. Tulane OL (95 combined
career starts) returns intact, and true frosh RB Matt Forté moving up depth chart. If new starting QB Ricard (6-5, 225; LSU transfer) limits mistakes, Green Wave will make Croom sweat in his opener.
(03-TULANE 31-Miss. St. 28...T.26-23 M.37/225 T.31/112 T.29/47/0/349 M.16/33/0/246 T.0 M.3)
(03-TULANE +3 31-28...SR: Mississippi State 27-25-2)
*LSU 33 - Oregon State 10—With 15 starters back (9 return on nation’s No. 1 “D” !), must “lay it” with defending BCS champ LSU, which also covered 11 of 13 games LY. And with HC Saban (as if he needed any help) adding some new defensive schemes after conferencing with mentor Bill Belichick during summer, Tigers ballhawking 2ndary (34 ints. L2Ys) agitates OSU’s easily-rattled 6-6 sr. QB D. Anderson (24 ints. LY), who is without big-time weapons RB S. Jackson & WR Newson. LSU’s capable 6-2 sr. QB Randall (Baton Rouge product has 6 starts) eager for his big shot, and d-e-e-p stable of RBs figures to wear down Beaver “D” unaccustomed to stifling southern heat & humidity.
(DNP...SR: LSU 3-0)
*Texas Tech 43 - SMU 10 —TT led nation in total offense (583 ypg) LY; SMU was last in scoring (11.2 ppg). Expect repeat of LY’s mismatch, as Red Raider coach Leach says his OL & defense (9 back; plus 6 quality juco signees) are much improved and that new QB (5th-yr. sr.) Sonny Cumbie will do fine impression of B.J. Symons. Meanwhile, Mustang soph QB Phillips adjusting to new Ace-back system under new off. coord. Rusty Burns (Cincy LY). Leach 9-3 as DD fav. last 12.
(03-TEX. TECH 58-Smu 10...T.25-21 T.23/123 S.40/85 T.26/41/1/314 S.21/44/3/195 T.1 S.1)
(03-TEX. TECH -23' 58-10 02-Tex. Tech -20' 24-14...SR: Texas Tech 26-15)
*MINNESOTA 30 - Toledo 21—Reports from Minnesota indicate HC Mason has been pleased overall with defensive progress and the strides made by new QB Cupito.
However, he was very critical of mistake-plagued scrimmage serving as dress rehearsal for this game. The Gopher ground game boasts a pair of 1100-yd. rushers in Barber and Maroney operating behind a talented, veteran OL. However, Toledo has one of the premier offensive attacks in the MAC this season, featuring QB Gradkowski (71% LY) & 7 other returning starters. Clever Rocket HC Amstutz is dynamite game coach. ESPN2
(02-MINNESOTA -7' 31-21 01-TOLEDO -5 38-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*BYU 23 - Notre Dame 20—It’s not quite a Hulk Hogan vs. the Iron Sheik “loser leave town” scenario, but pressure will mount on whichever HC (BYU’s Crowton & ND’s Willingham) comes up short in this one. A measured vote, then, for Crowton’s Cougars, who MWC sources claim will have a much different look offensively now that QBs (John Beck & Matt Berry) are healthy and have a legit wideout to stretch opposing 2ndaries in mercurial WR juco Watkins. His presence could be bad news for Irish “D” that’s reportedly a step slow at CB. And not convinced still-learning ND soph QB Quinn can
deliver winning points on road vs. BYU’s unorthodox 3-3-5 “D” and vocal Provo partisans.
CABLE TV—ESPN (03-NOTRE DAME -9 33-14...SR: Notre Dame 2-1)
*STANFORD 38 - San Jose State 17—Recommendation here not necessarily an endorsement for any progress Buddy Teevens is making at Stanford. Rather, it’s an indictment of current state of affairs at San Jose, which enters campaign minus most
of its playmakers from LY and without an established QB. And though WAC sources indicate new d.c. Keith Burns (ex-Tulsa HC) a tactical upgrade for overmatched Spartan stop unit, maturing Cardinal soph QB Edwards has enough quality weapons to continue recent series reversal (Stanford has won and covered— big—last three).
(03-STAN. -13' 31-10 02-STAN. -18 63-26 01-Stan. -19' 41-14...SR: Stanford 45-13-1)
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RedSheet Newsletter
Message: AUGUST 31, 2004 VOLUME 36, NUMBER 1
Fresno State 31 - WASHINGTON 24 - (5:30 EDT - Sunday) -- Line opened at Washington minus 4½, and
is now minus 3½. The Huskies are in off their first non-bowl season since 1994, as they
needed a home upset of WashingtonSt in '03's regular season finale, to avoid a losing
campaign. They lose ten starters from a year ago, including QB Pickett, who at times
carried the squad on his back. This is a bit of a rebuilding year for Washington, while the
Bulldogs of Fresno return 17 starters from last year's bowl squad (winner over MichSt), are
led by QB Pinegar, along with all down linemen. The Bulldogs have proven over again that
they can more than compete with the powers, & open impressively in this one.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 89
Memphis 34 - MISSISSIPPI 27 - (6:00) -- Line opened at Mississippi minus 3½ & is still minus 3½. The
departure of Reb QB Manning is, of course, the most important sidebar in this matchup. His
presence provided an intangible which elevated the play of his team mates, & despite the
confidence in Spurlock (his replacement), a definite drop in offensive production can't be
prevented. And defensively, just 4 starters return. Not the case with the Tigers, who return
11 offensive starters, including QB Wimprine, who stung the Rebs for 355 yds & 3 TDs in
LY's 10-pt win over OleMiss. Note the other 2 losses suffered by the Rebs in '03 came by 3
pts to LSU, & by 4 pts to TexTech. As in game above, wrong team is favored.
RATING: MEMPHIS 89
VANDERBILT 30 - South Carolina 22 - (12:30) -- Line opened at SoCarolina minus 6, and is now minus 4½.
Do you discern a pattern here? Similar to our Superior choices, the Commodores of Vandy
return a bevy off starters: 21-of-22 to be exact, including all 11 defensive stalwarts. Sure,
the Gamecocks should be improved, offensively, with Holtz taking over that unit, but USC
ranked 82nd in the land in scoring a year ago, so the climb to respectability is a bit steep, &
note that there is nary a green starter on that Vandy "D". The 'Dores rolled up 456 yds & 25
FDs vs the 'Cocks a year ago, with QB Cutler tossing for 319 yds & 3 TDs, thus moving it
shouldn't be a problem here. We'll take the small spot again.
RATING: VANDERBILT 88
Ohio State 24 - CINCINNATI 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 17, and is now minus 15½. The
fabled Buckeye program has been a study in efficiency the past 2 seasons, winning 25-of-
27 games, as well as finishing #1 & #4 in the land. Their talent is rarely matched, & despite
losing 13 starters from a year ago, they are deep again. However, they no longer have the
leadership of QB Krenzel, who was made it all work. And in the trenches, OSt has lost 6-of-
9 starters. The Bearcats gave the Bucks all that they could handle 2 years ago, losing a
heartbreaker in Columbus, in the final 4 minutes. Cincy is rarely out of a contest, & with 9
offensive starters back, including QB Guidugli, should stay close again.
RATING: CINCINNATI 88
RUTGERS 24 - Michigan State 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 7, and is now minus 6. Yet
another game, which sees us on the side of an early week money move (check below). The
Knights, of course, are not among collegiate elites, not enjoying a winning season since 7-
4 in '92. But, although they went 5-7 SU a year ago, it was a vast improvement from '02,
when the Knights managed but a single win. Not only that, but Rutgers posted the best
spread record in the nation: 10-1-1, coming within 4 pts from a 12-0 sweep. The Knights
return 16 starters, including QB Hart (2,714 PYs in '03), & 8 other offensive vets. The loss of
QB Smoker may be a bit much to overcome for the Spartans. Call the upset.
RATING: RUTGERS 88
PURDUE 44 - Syracuse 17 - (1:30 Sunday) -- Line opened at Purdue minus 13, and is now minus 12. We
came within a whisker of having a 6-of-6 underdog sweep of our featured releases this
week, but the Boilers eventually won out as our final choice. Tiller has worked his offensive
magic since arriving at West Lafayette in '97 (7 consecutive bowl rewards), with competitiveness
the hallmark of his squads. Eight starters return from that unit, including QB
Orton, who is the early choice for BigTen's "Offensive Player of the Year". The 'Cuse has
become an annual disappointment in the recruiting wars, with the result a floundering program
(1 bowl in 4 years), & is going with green QBing here. Spread not high enuff.
RATING: PURDUE 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Miami-Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado State -- The NFL Begins Next Week.
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): WestVirginia (-26½ to -28½); Cincinnati (+17 to +15½);
Vanderbilt (+6 to +4½); OklahomaSt (+2½ to +1); New Mexico (+2½ to +1½); Rutgers (+7 to +6); New
MexicoSt (+21 to +20); Iowa (-28 to -29); Syracuse (+13 to +12); FresnoSt (+4½ to +3½) -- TIME CHANGES:
Rutgers/MichiganSt: now 3:30; WestVa/ECaro: now 6:00; Clemson/WkForest: now 3:30; Mich/MiamiOhio:
now Noon; PennSt/Akron: now 3:30; Wisconsin/CentFla: now Noon; Vandy/SoCarolina: now 12:30; Uab/
Baylor: now 7:00; Kansas/Tulsa: now 7:00; Calif/AirForce: now Noon; Oklahoma/BG: now Noon; ColoSt/
Colo: now 8:00; MissSt/Tulane: now 6:00; Lsu/OregonSt: now 6:00; Stanford/SanJoseSt: now 10:00......
RED SHEET ONLINE RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's the rest of the report...
ADDED GAMES
AUBURN 52 - Louisiana-Monroe 7 —In contrast with season-opening losses to Southern Cal past 2 seasons, Auburn enjoys early tuneup vs. overmatched ULM squad that’s trailed 45-0 & 35-0 by halftime of past 2 series beatings. Scouts say Tigers 6-5 sr. QB Campbell smoothly running new West Coast. AU’s punishing ground assault, featuring RBs “Cadillac” Williams (1307 YR), “Bentley” Brown (446 YR) & versatile Tre Smith (Tuberville says “he’s too valuable to redshirt”) scores in bushels. Youthful Tiger defense reportedly even faster TY!
(03-AUBURN 73-La.-Mon. 7...A.25-10 A.43/241 U.32/23 A.16/21/1/240 U.10/25/3/128 A.0 U.1)
(03-AUBURN -37 73-7 02-AUBURN -35' 52-14...SR: Auburn 5-0)
*ALABAMA 31 - Utah State 10 —Sure, pumped-up Bama (bowl eligible following 2- year ban) more settled in Shula’s 2nd campaign. But still suggest taking big number with defensively -maturing Utah State (8 return on unit that rose from 111th to 45th LY!) that has lost by 27 pts. or fewer in past 19 games (covered at Nebraska & Ariz. St. LY). Aggies accurate, poised 6-2 sr. QB Cox (57%, 18 TDs, just 7 ints.) should test shuffled Tide 2ndary (10th in SEC LY). And, while Bama’s 6-3 jr. QB Croyle finally healthy, passing game probably won’t flourish this early with brand new set of WRs.
(FIRST MEETING)
MARSHALL 32 - Troy State 13—Troy caught Marshall coming off upset at Kansas State in LY’s home win. Herd attack is potent (scouts say look out for blue-chip true frosh RB Bradshaw & WR Spann, who originally signed with Virginia & Wisconsin,
respectively). And deep MU DL matches up well vs. Trojan RB Betterson (1161 YR LY). Unless TSU (only 42% in 2003!) has more credible aerial threat, payback should work.
(03-TROY ST. 33-Mar. 24...M.18-13 T.48/254 M.27/98 M.33/52/3/319 T.6/17/0/95 T.1 M.1)
(03-TROY STATE +12' 33-24 02-MARSHALL -20' 24-7...SR: Marshall 3-1)
*FLORIDA 52 - Middle Tennessee State 17—Young but loaded UF has destroyed its last 3 season-opening foes (combined 165-20 score!), and envision similiar scenario in ‘04. After all, Gators marvelous soph QB Leak (59%, 2,435 YP), who is operating a more fast-paced attack, should repeatedly riddle rebuilt MTS 2ndary, while formidable, super-deep ground attack (watch out for fast/powerful frosh RB Mason) overpowers Blue Raiders front 7. MTS mentor McCollom loves his “O,” but insiders say issues still exist concerning recently -underachieving squad’s mental toughness.
(DNP...SR: Florida 1-0)
*MISSOURI 44 - Arkansas State 3—Lots of wood for Mizzou to chop. But Tiger scouts report no-nonsense HC Pinkel (6-1 as DD fav. L2Ys) calling on his improving team to play at a high level every game. Even with rebuilt OL, QB Brad Smith, deep RB corps, and faster defense (two Ss moved to LB) give MU big edge. ASU breaking in new QB (starter Jacobs left for baseball), while 4-5 frosh might start on rebuilding defense. (FIRST MEETING)
*ARKANSAS 26 - New Mexico State 10—With heavy rebuilding on both sides of ball (just 4 overall starters back) reluctant to lay 3 TDs with immature Arkansas squad that also has major lookahead with Texas next week. Hogs swift 6-6 sr. QB M. Jones (707 YR LY) and young supporting cast not as effective in rematch vs. veteran NMS stop unit (10 starters back), led by an assertive Aggie 2ndary (27th nationally LY). State’s complementary sr. QB duo of Pierce (69%! LY) & Dombrowski (384 YR LY) should move chains some vs. undeveloped Razorback defense filling holes with lots of underclassmen.
(03-ARK. 48-New Mex. St. 20...A.23-19 A.56/308 N.37/136 N.19/27/0/214 A.12/17/0/192 A.1 N.2)
(03-ARKANSAS -29' 48-20...SR: Arkansas 2-0)
*TEXAS 33 - North Texas 13 —Texas going to a ground-oriented style, featuring RB Benson & extra-dimension QB Vince Young, in early going while new WRs gain playing time. That’s fine for prideful, three-time Sun Belt champ North Texas. Mean Green returns nearly all key performers on offense. And, with huge revenge game at Arkansas on tap for Longhorns, you can expect new UT def. architect Greg Robinson (K.C. LY) to try to keep some of his new tricks in the bag, if possible.
(02-TEXAS -35 27-0...SR: Texas 7-0)
*BOISE STATE 40 - Idaho 13—Even though new HC Nick Holt was reportedly aghast at lack of depth he inherited at Idaho, not sure we want to lay a premium number with Boise. After all, Bronco squads with more-established weaponry have had trouble with fired-up rival Vandals past two years, and rising pointspread caught up with Broncos LY (only 2-3 vs. line at home). HC Hawkins might not want to unveil full bag of tricks with revenge battle vs. Oregon State on deck.
(03-Boise St. 24-IDAHO 10...19-19 B.43/263 I.29/55 I.25/51/0/273 B.15/25/0/165 B.2 I.1)
(03-Bsu -24 24-10 02-BSU -23 38-21 01-Bsu -11' 45-13...SR: Idaho 17-15-1)
*HAWAII 45 - Florida Atlantic 24— He’s back! Howard Schnellenberger, that is, with new Div. I-A entry FAU, and Owls aren’t likely to roll over with 10 starters back on offense and defense from LY’s 11-3 squad that made I-AA playoffs. Still, though sources say talented soph QB Allen (24 TDP & only 9 ints. LY) could damage rebuilt Hawaii “D,” Schnellenberger’s stop unit has never faced anything resembling June Jones’ dizzying Red Gun that returns sr. QB Chang and most all of his supporting cast from ‘03. And it’s a long trip from Boca Raton to Honolulu. (FIRST MEETING)
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Here's the GS report for Sunday & Monday games...
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
PURDUE 31 - Syracuse 14 —Purdue o.c. Jim Chaney is looking forward to unleashing an attack he thinks will remind Boiler faithful of the days of Drew Brees. Sr. QB Kyle Orton (61%, 2885 YP LY) is going to air it out, and Syracuse has had trouble stopping the pass the last 2 years, yielding 44 TD passes and 269 ypg passing. Orton
has a variety of weapons, including WR Stubblefield (86 recs. LY) and RB Void (13 rush TDs). Syracuse has more limited offensive options, as beleaguered HC Pasqualoni has top-flight RB Reyes (1347 YR LY), but not much else. None of the three prospective QB candidates has been in a game. Oh boy! TV—ABC
(FIRST MEETING)
LOUISVILLE 30 - Kentucky 26—Explosive L’ville attack (5th nationally LY) admittedly owns more proven weapons of mass production. But will still “take” with rival Kentucky, seething from LY’s 40-24 nationally -televised loss, when Cards scored
on 2-yd. run with only :06 left instead of taking a knee. Ouch! Scouts believe Wildcats athletic dual threat, 6-3 sr. QB Boyd, ready to thrive in o.c. Hudson’s roll-out oriented attack, alleviating some pressure from totally rebuilt OL. Disappointing Card 2ndary (258 ypg passing) was baffled by most quality QBs LY (hence, new d.c. Mike Cassity),
and visitor has covered 5 of last 6 in series. CABLE TV—ESPN
(03-Lvl. 40-KY. 24...L.22-21 L.44/240 K.36/108 K.18/32/2/236 L.14/23/1/180 L.0 K.0)
(03-Lvl. +5' 40-24 02-Ky. +13 22-17 01-Lvl. -3' 36-10...SR: Kentucky 10-6)
Houston 35 - Rice 27— Don’t expect any of that fancy passin’ stuff from Rice TY after Kenny Hatfield experimented with some 3 and 4-WR looks before going back to straight option football the last half of ‘03, winning 4 of last 6 and netting 489 ypg down stretch. But still-suspect Owls “D” was turned inside-out by Art Briles’ unique Houston spread/option LY, and C-USA scouts raving about progress of soph QB Kolb, who wasn’t too shabby as a frosh (61%, 25 TDP & only 8 ints.) (at Reliant Stadium)
(03-HOUSTON 48-Rice 14...H.22-14 R.46/206 H.49/194 H.17/23/0/246 R.6/13/2/36 H.0 R.0)
(03-HOUSTON -4' 48-14 02-Houston +7' 24-10 01-Rice +1' 21-14...SR: Houston 22-8)
*** Fresno State 27 - WASHINGTON 20 —Pat Hill and FSU live for these dates vs. high-profile foes, evidenced by Bulldogs’ 7-1 spread mark last 8 vs. Pac-10. And fact remains that FSU was probably flat-out better than Washington LY, and might be so again. Befuddled Huskies HC Gilbertson still unsure about QB spot (little-used
holdovers Paus & “slash” Stanback), which could be problem vs. what WAC sources say is Hill’s best-ever 2ndary. And expect more dynamism from QB Pinegar after injury-hampered ‘03. No surprise if clutch FSU PK Visintainer proves difference.
(DNP...SR: Washington 1-0)
*TENNESSEE 27 - Unlv 13 —Though UT mentor Fulmer says still-competing true frosh QBs Schaeffer & Ainge are “unusually mature,” Fulmer will limit playbook here and mostly resort to smashmouth approach with his vet bunch of RBs. But UNLV’s
active, physical back 8—anchored by omnipresent 215 FS Brimmer & stout pair of sr. LBs Seward & Claridge (both 250)—able to keep Vols from steamrolling. Heck, Rebels deep, diverse group of RBs (former Neb. signee Marshall added to mix) also
impressive, while ugpraded aerial game (under 2nd-year o.c. Bruce Synder), featuring prime-time 6-3 sr. WR E. Johnson (60 catches LY), could challenge unsettled Vol 2ndary (lost 3 starters). Robo 5-1-1 as DD road dog since ‘99! CABLE TV—ESPN2
(DNP...SR: Tennessee 1-0)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 6
SOUTH FLORIDA 16 - Pittsburgh 10—Pittsburgh offense (only 3 starters return) has all sorts of concerns entering TY (see Special Ticker). South Florida attack no
juggernaut. But Bulls have good RB depth & a starting OL that returns en masse. Fiesty USF joins Big East next season, and it was 4-0 SU vs. C-USA teams the year before entering that loop. Favor host (21-game home win streak before pair of 3-point losses LY) and “under.” CABLE TV—ESPN
(01-South Florida +23 35-26...SR: South Florida 1-0)
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LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE
By Gary Olshan, Chief Analyst
Baylor at UAB...Baylor has been Big XII bottom feeder since mid ‘90s, but you can bet UAB won’t take Bears lightly after narrow 24-19 win at Waco LY. Blazer QB Hackney threw winning 50-yd. TD pass with just 40 secs. to go!
Baylor HC Guy Morriss has provided bulletin board material when he publicly
said in preseason that early games vs. UAB, Texas State and North Texas were “ must wins.”
Cal at AIR FORCE...Terrible role lately for Cal, which is 0-7-2 as road chalk since ‘95. AF starting its 1st true frosh QB (Carney) since ‘86. Notre Dame at BYU...BYU on a mission (no pun intended) following sloppy (Cougs committed 4 TOs) in 33-14 setback at South Bend LY. BYU has covered 5 straight openers. ND just 5-12 vs. spread last 17 on board.
Wake Forest at CLEMSON ...Expect revenge-minded Clemson to come out smoking after falling behind 35-0 by halftime in embarrassing 45-17 shocker at Wake Forest LY. Tigers, who had won 8 of previous 9 in series SU, handed Deacons a couple of early TDs (WF scored on a 85-yd. int. & 12-yd. fumble return). Numerous Clemson players claimed they were distracted by upcoming battle with Florida State in “Death Valley” LY.
Colorado at COLORADO ...Underdog has covered 7 of past 8 between these two heated rivals. CSU mentor Sonny Lubick is 14-5 in underdog role since ‘99.
Kent State at IOWA ...Iowa has been nation’s No.1 bully over last decade, posting an amazing 20-2 spread mark as DD chalk in Kinnick Stadium since ‘94. Hawkeyes are a perfect 10-0 vs. points in that role last 4 seasons!
Oregon State at LSU...BCS national champ LSU is solid 9-2 vs. spread in Tiger Stadium last 2 seasons, including perfect 5-0 mark as DD chalk over same time frame. OSU is arriving in Baton Rouge on Thursday in an attempt to get acclimated to the typically oppressive southern late summer heat & humidity.
Northern Illinois at MARYLAND ...Maryland has been itching for this
rematch all summer following 20-13 OT loss at Northern Illinois in LY’s opener,
when Terps took Huskies lightly by spending extra time preparing for upcoming Florida State battle. Maryland is 14-2 as home chalk under shrewd 4th-year mentor Friedgen, including 7-1 mark as DD favorite. Huskies, however, are 8- 2 last 10 as an underdog, including 3 straight as DD dog.
Troy State at MARSHALL ...Proud Marshall aching for this revenge game
after claiming it was “unfocused” in 33-24 upset loss at Troy State LY. Note,
that Thundering Herd was off brutal trio of games the previous 3 weeks (at
Tennessee, Toledo, & upset at Kansas State!). Marshall still outgained Trojans
417-349, but couldn’t overcome Troy State’s momentum-shifting 70-yd int.
return for TD when Herd trailed only 20-17 early in final period.
Cincinnati at OHIO STATE...Cincy nearly pulled off a major upset vs. more
prestigious instate power Ohio State in 23-19 loss at Paul Brown Stadium in ‘02. Bearcat then-soph QB Guidugli bedazzled the Buckeye 2ndary, throwing for 324 yds., and Cincy led 19-14 in 4th Q before Buckeyes scored final 9 pts. to narrowly escape. This opener has extra significance for new Bearcat HC Mark Dantonio, who tutored under mentor Jim Tressel at both Youngstown State &Ohio State.
Michigan State at RUTGERS ...Ascending Rutgers has been feisty home dog lately, going 7-2 in that role last 2 seasons, and don’t forget Scarlet Knight were sizzling 10-1-1 vs. spread LY, including 44-28 spread-covering loss at MSU in ‘03.
Texas Tech at SMU ...TT was 6-2 as chalk LY, which includes 58-10
thrashing vs. SMU LY. Mustangs only 7-17 vs. number under beleaguered HC
Phil Bennett.
South Carolina at VANDERBILT ...Vandy has been scrappy home dog in
recent times, going 8-2-1 in Nashville since ‘01, which includes competitive 20- 14 setback vs. South Carolina in ‘02 (‘Dores were 9 ½-pt. dog). ‘Cocks have
been an unwise investment lately, posting an 8-15-1 spread record since ‘02.
East Carolina at WEST VIRGINIA ...WV’s ground attack has overwhelmed
ECU defense in past 2 blowouts, as Mountaineer RBs have rolled up a
whopping 536 & 361 YR in ‘02 & ‘03 respectively.
Florida State at MIAMI...Miami has defeated Florida-based schools 9
straight times, including 5 in row vs. FSU, and Hurricanes have covered 5 of
past 6 in series. However, 4 of past 5 decided by total of just 14 pts.
Fresno State at WASHINGTON (Sunday)...FSU’s fiery HC Pat Hill relishes the opportunity to face Pac-10 squads to prove his Bulldogs can compete with the “big boys.” FSU has clearly risen to the occasion lately, recording 6-1 spread mark since ‘02, including impressive upsets vs. Oregon State and UCLA
(Silicon Valley Bowl) in ‘03.
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