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I'm going to be out of town for the Labor Day weekend, and will not be playing any baseball. But, these are my NCAA Football plays for Saturday and Sunday. I will pop in a few times during the weekend and may add a late play on the Hawaii game, I want to see what the line does. Hope everyone has a safe weekend! These are my plays....
Saturday, September 4th
5 STAR: UCLA (PICK) OVER Oklahoma State
This is the Bruins second year in head coach Karl Dorrell's complicated offensive system and they return 9 of 11 starters, including quarterback Drew Olsen and the entire offensive line. I look for this talented group to put it together this season. Oklahoma State loses its two big stars from last year, running back Tatum Bell and big play receiver Rashaun Woods, but they do have a lot of young talent. I think they will be a good team this season, but I think it will take some time. This is a huge game for UCLA and I think the home field advantage is huge in this match up. The Bruins are 9-1 against the spread in their first home game of the season the last 10 years. Take the Bruins here!
3 STAR: RUTGERS (+5.5) OVER Michigan State
Michigan State has been one of the worst favorites in college football over the last three seasons posting a 4-8 record against the spread when laying points. The Spartans have also been slow starters going 2-6 against the spread in September games the last three seasons and they are only 2-7 against the spread in non conference games in that same span. Michigan State only returns five starters on offense, their top two running backs have moved to the defense, Jeff Smoker their starting quarterback is gone and the offensive line is only average at best. Their could very well be some early offensive struggles. Rutgers should be an improved team this season with fifteen returning starters. The offense improved under new offensive coordinator Craig Ver Steeg with more explosion and more diversified attack. I look for them to continue to improve this season. Rutgers has been very good as an underdog going 14-5 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons and they have been very good early in the season going 6-1 against the spread in September the last three years. Take the points here, Rutgers might win straight up!
3 STAR: AIR FORCE (+14)(-$120) OVER California
(Buy the 1/2 point)
The Bears seem to be a very public team this season, and I do expect them to be very good. But almost a two touchdown favorite on the road? I don't care how good a defense is, if you don't see the option much, you are most likely going to have some trouble with it. Air Force is always a well coached team, and if they can have some success running their option, they should be able to easily keep this one within this number. Cal has been terrible as a favorite posting a 16-32 record in that roll in their last 48 games as a favorite and they are only 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 chances as a road favorite. In fact, this is only the third time in ten seasons that Cal is a road favorite of 10-14 points and they failed to cover in those two attempts. I know that Air Force only returns six starters from last season, but they will plug new faces into their system. Its not like they are losing NFL quality talent, what they are losing is experience, but I don't think its worth two touchdowns. Air Force is also 3-0 against the spread in match ups with PAC10 teams, while Cal is 0-3 against the spread in their last three games with Mountain West opponents. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Memphis (+3.5) OVER MISSISSIPPI
This is a rebuilding year for Ole Miss with Eli Manning now in the NFL and only four returning starters on defense. Lets not forget that Memphis beat the Rebels last season as a home underdog and these team returns 10 starters on offense that hung 44 points on Ole Miss last season including QB Danny Wimprine, a healthy RB DeAngelo Williams and a fast and loaded receiving corps. There is just too much firepower on the Memphis offense for Ole Miss to handle, and they won't have the offense of last season that will be able to match scores. Take the points here, but you should not need them!
3 STAR: Cincinnati (+14.5) OVER OHIO STATE
The Bearcats have a veteran and talented offence that will be able to keep them in the game against the Buckeyes lead by quarterback Gino Guidugli. And who will know how to handle the Ohio State offense better than former Buckeye defensive coordinator and new Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio? Ohio State always seems to be in close ball games and this one should be no different. Cincinnati is 7-3 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons and they have usually started well, going 6-2 against the spread in September games the last three seasons. This Ohio State team might need some time to gel and they are only 2-6 against the spread in September games the last three seasons. Look for the Bearcats to give Ohio State a scare, take the points!
1 STAR: TEXAS (-26) OVER North Texas
This should be a wood shed game. North Texas should once again be the best in the Sun Belt, but the Longhorns just have too much talent for North Texas. The Mean Green has had a very good defense the past few seasons, but they are not in a good spot here against Cedric Benson and Vince Young and Company as they have three new starting linebackers this season. North Texas has a very good back also in Patrick Cobbs who should run wild against the Sun Belt conference, but I don't see it happening here. North Texas is only 1-7 against the spread in games as a 21 to 31 point underdog, while Texas is 9-4 against the spread as a favorite of 21 to 31 points. I expect those trends to hold form and North Texas to get hammered in this one. Lay the wood!
1 STAR: Texas Tech (-24.5) OVER SMU
The Texas Tech offense should not skip a beat, and they love to beat up on weaker opponents. SMU was dead last in points scored per game last season averaging under 12 points per contest, and I don't see them improving much this year. SMU just does not have the fire power to keep this one close. Texas Tech is 12-4 against the spread the last three seasons as a favorite, including 2-0 when laying 21-31 points. SMU is a terrible 6-13 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons, including 1-5 against the spread as an underdog of 21-31 points. Lay the wood, this one should get ugly!
Sunday, September 4th
3 STAR: Fresno State (+3) OVER WASHINGTON
Washington has some major concerns, especially on the offensive line and they will have trouble with the Bulldog defense that returns eight starters from last season. Fresno State also returns nine starters on offense including quarterback Paul Pinegar who began last season injured. He's healthy this time, and should have a big year for the Bulldogs. Fresno State is an outstanding 15-4 against the spread versus the Pac 10 and Washington is only 3-10 the last three seasons as a favorite. Take the points here!
2 STAR: Unlv (+21)(-$120) OVER TENNESSEE
(Buy the 1/2 point)
Unlv is a very talented team, and they have a very good, veteran defense that should give the very young Tennessee offense that is starting a freshman quarterback all kinds of trouble. Vegas pulled off the shocker at Wisconsin last season, and they are capable of doing the same here, so this is a very scary game for the Vols. Tennessee is only 2-4 against the spread the last three seasons as a favorite of 10-21 points, while the Rebels have done very well in this spot the last three seasons, posting a record of 4-1 against the spread when getting 10-21 points. Take the points here, Vegas should give the Vols a scare!
1 STAR: HOUSTON (-3) OVER Rice
The Cougars had a nice season last year, and should even be better this year, but their record might not show it. The have some tough non conference games with Oklahoma and Miami, so they better win the games they should, and this is one of them. Since this is the first game of the season, the Cougars have had a lot of time to get ready for the option running game of the Owls. On the other side of the ball, Houston just has too much for Rice. The U of H offense should once again be very potent, and I see them putting a bunch of points on the board against Rice. Living here in Houston, I can tell you that the Cougars are looking to put a beating on Rice, there has been a lot of talking between the two teams and since this game is being played at Reliant Stadium, there should be just as many, if not more U of H fans as there are Rice fans. Lay the points here!
Saturday, September 4th
5 STAR: UCLA (PICK) OVER Oklahoma State
This is the Bruins second year in head coach Karl Dorrell's complicated offensive system and they return 9 of 11 starters, including quarterback Drew Olsen and the entire offensive line. I look for this talented group to put it together this season. Oklahoma State loses its two big stars from last year, running back Tatum Bell and big play receiver Rashaun Woods, but they do have a lot of young talent. I think they will be a good team this season, but I think it will take some time. This is a huge game for UCLA and I think the home field advantage is huge in this match up. The Bruins are 9-1 against the spread in their first home game of the season the last 10 years. Take the Bruins here!
3 STAR: RUTGERS (+5.5) OVER Michigan State
Michigan State has been one of the worst favorites in college football over the last three seasons posting a 4-8 record against the spread when laying points. The Spartans have also been slow starters going 2-6 against the spread in September games the last three seasons and they are only 2-7 against the spread in non conference games in that same span. Michigan State only returns five starters on offense, their top two running backs have moved to the defense, Jeff Smoker their starting quarterback is gone and the offensive line is only average at best. Their could very well be some early offensive struggles. Rutgers should be an improved team this season with fifteen returning starters. The offense improved under new offensive coordinator Craig Ver Steeg with more explosion and more diversified attack. I look for them to continue to improve this season. Rutgers has been very good as an underdog going 14-5 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons and they have been very good early in the season going 6-1 against the spread in September the last three years. Take the points here, Rutgers might win straight up!
3 STAR: AIR FORCE (+14)(-$120) OVER California
(Buy the 1/2 point)
The Bears seem to be a very public team this season, and I do expect them to be very good. But almost a two touchdown favorite on the road? I don't care how good a defense is, if you don't see the option much, you are most likely going to have some trouble with it. Air Force is always a well coached team, and if they can have some success running their option, they should be able to easily keep this one within this number. Cal has been terrible as a favorite posting a 16-32 record in that roll in their last 48 games as a favorite and they are only 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 chances as a road favorite. In fact, this is only the third time in ten seasons that Cal is a road favorite of 10-14 points and they failed to cover in those two attempts. I know that Air Force only returns six starters from last season, but they will plug new faces into their system. Its not like they are losing NFL quality talent, what they are losing is experience, but I don't think its worth two touchdowns. Air Force is also 3-0 against the spread in match ups with PAC10 teams, while Cal is 0-3 against the spread in their last three games with Mountain West opponents. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Memphis (+3.5) OVER MISSISSIPPI
This is a rebuilding year for Ole Miss with Eli Manning now in the NFL and only four returning starters on defense. Lets not forget that Memphis beat the Rebels last season as a home underdog and these team returns 10 starters on offense that hung 44 points on Ole Miss last season including QB Danny Wimprine, a healthy RB DeAngelo Williams and a fast and loaded receiving corps. There is just too much firepower on the Memphis offense for Ole Miss to handle, and they won't have the offense of last season that will be able to match scores. Take the points here, but you should not need them!
3 STAR: Cincinnati (+14.5) OVER OHIO STATE
The Bearcats have a veteran and talented offence that will be able to keep them in the game against the Buckeyes lead by quarterback Gino Guidugli. And who will know how to handle the Ohio State offense better than former Buckeye defensive coordinator and new Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio? Ohio State always seems to be in close ball games and this one should be no different. Cincinnati is 7-3 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons and they have usually started well, going 6-2 against the spread in September games the last three seasons. This Ohio State team might need some time to gel and they are only 2-6 against the spread in September games the last three seasons. Look for the Bearcats to give Ohio State a scare, take the points!
1 STAR: TEXAS (-26) OVER North Texas
This should be a wood shed game. North Texas should once again be the best in the Sun Belt, but the Longhorns just have too much talent for North Texas. The Mean Green has had a very good defense the past few seasons, but they are not in a good spot here against Cedric Benson and Vince Young and Company as they have three new starting linebackers this season. North Texas has a very good back also in Patrick Cobbs who should run wild against the Sun Belt conference, but I don't see it happening here. North Texas is only 1-7 against the spread in games as a 21 to 31 point underdog, while Texas is 9-4 against the spread as a favorite of 21 to 31 points. I expect those trends to hold form and North Texas to get hammered in this one. Lay the wood!
1 STAR: Texas Tech (-24.5) OVER SMU
The Texas Tech offense should not skip a beat, and they love to beat up on weaker opponents. SMU was dead last in points scored per game last season averaging under 12 points per contest, and I don't see them improving much this year. SMU just does not have the fire power to keep this one close. Texas Tech is 12-4 against the spread the last three seasons as a favorite, including 2-0 when laying 21-31 points. SMU is a terrible 6-13 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons, including 1-5 against the spread as an underdog of 21-31 points. Lay the wood, this one should get ugly!
Sunday, September 4th
3 STAR: Fresno State (+3) OVER WASHINGTON
Washington has some major concerns, especially on the offensive line and they will have trouble with the Bulldog defense that returns eight starters from last season. Fresno State also returns nine starters on offense including quarterback Paul Pinegar who began last season injured. He's healthy this time, and should have a big year for the Bulldogs. Fresno State is an outstanding 15-4 against the spread versus the Pac 10 and Washington is only 3-10 the last three seasons as a favorite. Take the points here!
2 STAR: Unlv (+21)(-$120) OVER TENNESSEE
(Buy the 1/2 point)
Unlv is a very talented team, and they have a very good, veteran defense that should give the very young Tennessee offense that is starting a freshman quarterback all kinds of trouble. Vegas pulled off the shocker at Wisconsin last season, and they are capable of doing the same here, so this is a very scary game for the Vols. Tennessee is only 2-4 against the spread the last three seasons as a favorite of 10-21 points, while the Rebels have done very well in this spot the last three seasons, posting a record of 4-1 against the spread when getting 10-21 points. Take the points here, Vegas should give the Vols a scare!
1 STAR: HOUSTON (-3) OVER Rice
The Cougars had a nice season last year, and should even be better this year, but their record might not show it. The have some tough non conference games with Oklahoma and Miami, so they better win the games they should, and this is one of them. Since this is the first game of the season, the Cougars have had a lot of time to get ready for the option running game of the Owls. On the other side of the ball, Houston just has too much for Rice. The U of H offense should once again be very potent, and I see them putting a bunch of points on the board against Rice. Living here in Houston, I can tell you that the Cougars are looking to put a beating on Rice, there has been a lot of talking between the two teams and since this game is being played at Reliant Stadium, there should be just as many, if not more U of H fans as there are Rice fans. Lay the points here!
BOL KAPTAIN O F ... L2P2
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